Thought we could start a thread on the latest big Friends set. Especially regarding the speculation that it will/won't do well this Xmas.

 

I'm still undecided on this one. I had a lot of luck with the Dolphin Cruiser last Xmas, but the HL Shopping Mall is a higher price point and a much bigger box (shipping hassle!).

 

 

On a related note, I noticed that Mattel just put out a shopping mall playset for Barbie...the Malibu Mall (TRU says it's their exclusive). When it rains, it pours, I guess. For a while there were a couple of cruise ships (Barbie, Hello Kitty, etc.) that came on the scene right around the time the Dolphin Cruiser came out.

17 hours ago, tjj1984 said:

Thank you for not assuming that I'm new to this, but I am. I could be way off-base with my attempts to rationalize the market, but that's just the way I operate until I'm confronted with conflicting data. That's what drew me to this particular site--it tracks that data. (BTW--How often are the price histories updated? Currently they go to December but we're almost through February). I admit that I could be completely wrong, and that I have no evidence to support my opinion, but I still maintain that the evidence to support that certain lines (Friends) will appreciate based on past performance is flimsy at best, and most likely completely fallacious.

Sometimes I feel like I've entered a game of musical chairs in which I don't have access to the largest and most comfortable chairs.

 

**EDIT** I'd just like to add that I'm not trying to get rich off of this, I just want to break even for all of the money I'm spending on LEGO. Worst case scenario, I get stuck with extra LEGO sets. I don't have any interest in those extra sets being marketed towards girls ages 5-12, so maybe my bias is blinding me.

Considering you like numbers, check the CAGR% by theme and you'll see that a lot of talk on these forums is likely about the wrong sets. At least in my very humble opinion. To stay on topic, I think Heartlake Mall will be similar to slightly less than Summer Riding Camp in growth.

I assumed a lot of these sets are bought a premium to keep "princess" happy. You don't want to see the Angry Kitty side.

4 hours ago, Haay said:

Yeah, that completely baffles me too. The only explanation I could think of is the speculators who chose not to buy the DS while it was available, and now that it's retired and prices start to rise they jump in as a panic reaction of having missed it. But when the only people buying are the ones who believe they can sell it with a profit later down the line, it has all the characteristics of a pyramid scheme. 

 

You're overthinking it...people want what they want and either don't know or don't care what they have to pay in order to get it.  The people buying DS for 50% above MSRP are simply people who are willing to pay 50% above MSRP for DS so that they can have it.  There may be some speculators in that crowd, but the Death Star ain't no pyramid scheme.

If your target market is resellers than ask them. For this set the target market is little girls and their parents. Most of you are men I assume based on comments I have read. I can assure you having a daughter who buys great lego sets, that the mall is awful. My daughter and her friends have 20 other sets they would go with before a pieced together set that does not even look like a mall. 

I would stick with sets that have animals or look really great. I can not stress enough that one should know their target customers if they want the best chance.

I appreciate the feedback and discussion. While I still don't see the appeal of this set in general, I think its safe to say that at the right buy-in price its worth picking up. With that being said, each and every one of us has a different idea of what constitutes a good value and safe investment. Admittedly, I am new to this and don't fully understand the logic of the end-consumer who's paying re-seller prices for sets like these. All I can do is to take what I learn from each set and apply it to future investments.