Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.
BRICKPICKER

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Click Here To View The NEW DAILY DEALS FEED!

Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
Show all categories
If you buy a lot of Lego sets, you know Amazon.om is a great place to get them. They usually have some of the best prices out there, they have excellent shipping terms with Amazon Prime and with their super saving shipping, and they price match everything (they actually price match everything, TRU, rather than just stating that they do…).
But there is another way on Amazon to get some pretty good deals, and if you are not utilizing it, you are making a big mistake. It’s called the Amazon Gold Box “quick pick” deals.
Amazon has a deals page that everyday updates with deals all throughout their product category. This page has Gold Box deals (special deals site wide), lightning deals (special deals that pop up for a limited time), and a “quick picks” section. This “quick picks” section is a set of deals that are specifically picked for you – they aren’t available to everyone! Basically, they take an already discounted item, and if they think you will like it, they place it in this section and add a special extra discounted coupon that you would not get if you just searched for the item yourself. Here is Amazon’s description from the website:
Quick Picks
Products selected every day especially for you, paired with limited-time coupons that offer additional savings.
You only have a Quick Picks section if you have an Amazon account and have purchased an Amazon item before. After making your first purchase, a few days later your Quick Picks section will appear. You can get to it by going to www.amazon.com, signing in, and then clicking on “Today’s Deals” over in the left hand corner. The corresponding page will have Gold Box site-wide sale items at the top. If you scroll down, near the bottom you will see your Quick Picks section. Here is a picture of what this looks like:
 

You can only purchase an item out of your quick picks section once per day. It can present up to 6 items, so you have to make sure you choose wisely! Amazon uses everything that you buy from them, everything that you rate and review, and any other things on their website you designate that you own, to understand your interests and know what deals to present to you. It isn’t perfect, but it is a great system for getting coupons on things you may want without having to do much at all!
So as a Lego collector/investor/builder, how do you manipulate your Amazon account so that you can ensure you will always be getting Lego sets – and especially the Lego sets you want? It’s actually fairly simple. As I stated before, everything you ever purchase from Amazon is in their system as an item you own. Because you own it, they assume you are interested in it. Using these items, they take similar items and assume you are interested in those as well. For example, if you purchase a Lego Death Star 10188, Amazon might assume that you would also like a Lego Star Destroyer 6211.
Unfortunately this works both ways. I purchase a lot of other items through Amazon that are for my House, or car. I purchased a Refrigerator filter through Amazon, and a few days later Amazon had me down as a filter junkie. I don’t want all of that stuff in my Gold Box when I could be saving money off great Lego sets.
So we have to tell Amazon specifically what we are currently looking for and what we are not interested in at all, even if we did at one time buy it. So here are a few ways to do that:
Amazon Checkout Cart
One of the ways Amazon selects what should be in your Quick Picks is through items you have placed in your cart at one time. If you actually place items in your cart that you want, even if you don't purchase them, Amazon remembers that you liked that item and makes recommendations based on it. So an easy way to manipulate this is to add a bunch of Lego sets you would like to your cart. Even if you don't buy them, it will help signal to Amazon that you would like them to start putting what you want in your Quick Picks.
Obviously, along with this, anything you actually purchase is used for recommendations as well as it has been in your cart. This can be a problem if, like we talked about before, you buy non-Lego stuff. There is a way to remedy this and it will be discussed below.
Amazon Wish-List
So if you have ever fooled around in your Amazon cart, you will have seen a little link at the bottom of each item in the cart that says “save for later”. If you press this button, that item is transferred to something called your “Amazon Wish-List”. This is a great feature, because if there are deals on your item, Amazon will alert you that something on your wish list has changed price. But along with this, Amazon takes a big peek at your wish-list to tell what you are looking for. The more Lego items you have on your wish-list, the better your chances of getting Lego items in your Quick Picks everyday. I generally add every Lego set from every one of the themes I am looking for so that Amazon will know that I like Lego, and that I like it from these certain themes (there are over 100 Star Wars Lego sets in my wish-list).
Amazon Recommendations Page and Item Reviews
This is the place that really makes a big difference. So, do you want to know what Amazon currently thinks you are a fan of without having to wait for your next set of Quick Picks? Go to www.amazon.com and then click at the top left where it says “<username>'s Amazon”. Now you will see a new page come up and in the middle a the top will be large lines of items in different departments that Amazon has picked for you. This is shown below:

These are currently all the departments and all the items Amazon thinks you like. See anything you don't want? Mine has dog and cat food! Who knows what I bought to make them think that.
Well, if you want to edit your items, click on the link under the section that says “see all recommendations in <department name>”. When you click this, you will get a page of items that Amazon thinks you are interested in.
For each item, you will notice under the name you can click whether you own it, or you are not interested. As well, to the right, you can rate an item as well. This is how you really narrow down the stuff that shows up in your Quick Pick's. Amazon is pretty bold and assumes you like all these items for some reason or another. So, any item you don't want, just click “not interested” until those are all gone. You can continue to do it until the section as gone as well! Once you have gotten rid of those, you can fully help narrow down Amazons recommendations for you.
On top of this, the reviews are really helpful as well. You want Amazon to know you really like Legos? Give a bunch of sets in your favorite themes 5 Stars! The “own it” button is there as well. You have to be careful with this though. The rumor is that if you press this button, Amazon is not likely to recommend that set to you. So you can manipulate this in your favor. If there is a theme you don't particularly love, but one set you want, tell Amazon that you own all of those sets and give them 5-stars. Make sure you leave out the one set you want. You have now effectively told Amazon “That is the only set I need to complete the collection”.
So even with all of this – you still are going to make purchases that are non-Lego (which is a sad thing) and these are going to influence Amazon until you remove all the items, right? Well, here is a trick. After you purchase, go back to your recommendations page and click on a section of recommendations like we discussed above. At the top you will see something that says “recommendations based on items you own”. The “items you own” will be a link. Click this, and Amazon will show everything you ever purchased. If you don't want something to be considered as part of your recommendations, just click the check box on the right that says “Don't use for recommendations”. Now you are protected from buying something for a pet, and looking at discounted cat food until the end of time!
Further Manipulation
This method is hit or miss, but can definitely work to a certain extent. So, say there is a particular set you want. First, remove everything but this from your wish-list. Then go to your recommendations and remove every set from it (or own them all if you want). Now highly rate the item. I have not tried this, but there have been several others that have used this method to get a certain set on discount.
Remember, if you have bought this item before, or told Amazon you own it, make sure you find it before hand and un-click the “own it” button. Otherwise, chances are Amazon won't put it in your Quick Picks.
Gold Box Quick Picks Deal Sharing Thread
One of our most valued members, FCBarcelona101 started a thread for sharing Gold Box deals. Basically, if you have sets in your gold box that are good deals and you don't want any of theme, you can post in this thread: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/4499-amazon-gold-box-deals-sharing-thread/page-3?hl=gold
Someone else may respond and if they want the deal, you can work out to let them purchase it using your account. This way, we continue to share great deals with each other.
So go get your Amazon Gold Box recommendations set up right now and make sure to come back and report your results. If you find or know of any other methods to manipulate your Gold Box deals, make sure you post them in the comments section.
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
For my next try at being a Lego design star, I wanted to tap into something that could be a massive theme for Lego. It has been mentioned many times and I think most of us are pretty flummoxed that it hasn't happened yet – though we all probably agree it eventually will. This theme is Video Games.
Now there are hundreds of thousands of great video games to choose from, so in this article I only wanted to look at one. This is probably the most recognizable video game character of all time and probably the most popular video game character of all time: Super Mario.
So there are tons of things that could be included in this theme and it was really hard to narrow it down. I had a lot of problems trying to find things that I thought would really work well as Lego sets, and trying to decide what would be the best iconic sets that could be made. This is what I came up with:
Yoshi's House

 
 
 
 
 
 
One of the most memorable non-Mario-Brothers character's in the Mario games was Yoshi, which was Mario's pet. He has been popular enough that several other video game lines have been based off him alone. A lot of us remember Yoshi's house from the Super Nintendo game, Super Mario World. Near the beginning of the game, you could stop off at Yoshi's house to get a Yoshi by jumping up an feeding the small younger Yoshis until one of them grew up (those are some serious apples). Everyone knew that once you had Yoshi, you were pretty much unstoppable.
This set would be a smaller 200-300 piece set that would include a large elongated green-leaved tree. There would be Lego apples hanging from it at different spots that were detachable in some measure. It would come with the following minifigures:
Mario 1 big full sized Yoshi for that Mario could actually ride 3 smaller Yoshis that would sit on top of the tree. Their mouths would also open and close so that they could properly communicate that they were hungry Who wouldn't love this set? It would appeal to Lego fans as a minifigure value set, and it would appeal to pretty much any video gamer that ever played the games. And what kids don't love Yoshi!?
Mario's Tunnel and Cave

I am going a little bit out of the box here - and someone who does have a creativity gene could try and name it. Everyone remembers the tunnels form the Super Mario game. You have just won a castle and jumped on the flag, and a tunnel opens up in front of you. “TinkoTinkoTinko”. And then Mario pops out from the bottom of the pipe and he is now in a dark cave with some different looking... cave turtles? You hear “duh duh, duh duh, duh duh”...“duh duh, duh duh, duh duh”. It is a pretty iconic part of the video game.
For this, I think I would look awesome as a diorama. The bottom of the cave would a full large, dark gray Lego floor. It would also have sides and a ceiling, they just wouldn't come out as far so that there is a ceiling, but room to play with the set. There would be some Lego rocks, hills, and some how they would find a way to suspend Lego blocks for Mario to jump on. There would also be the entry pipe coming down from the top, as well as another pipe or two on the bottom for those possible secret areas.
This would include these minifigures:
Mario – a different design with a more cave-worthy outfit. 2 Turtles for Mario to jump on. 2 spike turtles – the guys that have very sharp spikes so that you can't jump on them. Kids would have a great time re-creating the Mario game and making Mario defeat the evil turtles! Maybe they could even add something that would play music so you could here that great theme in the background.
Mario Kart Raceway

So, yes this is a little out of the original Mario line as Mario Kart came later, but it is a stable for any Mario gamer. Though there were other party PvP games, this game really cemented PvP and battling as a staple of any video gamer's fun.
This would be a little outside the Lego box, but it would be a Lego racing set. Like the Lego trains, this would include a Lego track for the cars to race on. The cars would be completely made of Lego, but would also take batteries so that they could move by themselves. The set would come with Lego remotes as well (that also take batteries) that allow anyone to race the cars around the track. The track would also have some nice Mushroom terrain to decorate with.
And what is Mario cart without some hazards right? So the cars would have Lego attachments (I know I am outlandish) that would include a few shells and bananas. These could be launched at any point in time to try to keep the other participant from winning the race. This set would include:
One Mario Kart One Luigi Kart A Luigi minfig A Mario Minifig Can you imagine how much fun you would have with this?
Princess Peaches Castle

My favorite Mario game of all time, and what I would call the most complete and memorable video game of all time, is Super Mario 64. Peach's Castle was in a ton of Mario games – evidently she just has a knack for getting into trouble I particularly liked the castle's look in this game. It really looks like someone took one of the nicer castles from the Castle theme and touched it up with a bit of Lego Friends. Everyone loves Castle sets so we all know this would be a big hit.
I think it would be great if it had the moat and the drawbridge from the game. It should also have a few trap doors, secret entrance ways as we know there were those times where Mario got himself locked out of the castle. The Castle would also open up on the front so that it could become a play set as well.
The minifigures would include:
Mario Luigi just for good measure Princess Peach 2 Bombombs – I always really liked these guys and they were around a lot in Super Mario 64. A Goomba – Can you imagine how much fun people will have playing with something called a Goomba? A large Chain Chomp – you have to have a chain chomp I am not ashamed to admit I would play with this set.
Bowser's Castle

Alright, so yes I know it is a little repetitive, but Lego has a pretty serious history and track-record of making impressive buildings. Can you imagine how amazing a Bowser's castle could be? Lego could really make it an intimidating and impressive set.
This one wouldn't open up, it would be more about a large display piece. It would have the Bowser Logo on several parts of it, along with spikes everywhere. The front of the Castle would be a large Bowser mouth opening to swallow whoever dare entered his realm. There would also be plenty of Lego fire protruding from the Castle.
Minifigures would include:
Mario – Gotta have a redesign since he is in every set Luigi – Mario needs a backup 3 Koopa Troopas in Bowser garb Bowser himself – A gigantic Minfigure with flames coming from his mouth and spikes on his back. Needs to be as big as the rancor. What do you all think? Did I pick the right stuff? Do you all think this theme would be winner?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading!
Looking at the world from the ground is a lot different than in a hot air balloon. On the ground, you see details, colors, and textures of everything in front of you. In the air, you see what the overall landscape looks like, and all of those small details combine to form a picture of the earth's terrain and landscape that we cannot see from ground level. These overhead views can provide a weath of information about the nature of the area's weather patterns, climate and even its inhabitants.
As illuminating as this aerial study can be for our understanding of the environment we live in, analysis of the Lego product landscape is equally illuminating for Lego investors. With almost the entire 2013 product line either on the market or in the release queue, now is the perfect time to step back and review the 2013 Lego product line in totality to see if we can find any trends or nuggets that may give us a more accurate picture of where Lego's designs have been, and more importantly, where they may be going. Finding trends among this year's sets may help us with current and future investment decisions, so let's jump right into the 2013 trends I've found noteworthy:
The Year of the Remake

In fashion, there's an old saying: "What's new is old, and what's old is new." The same holds true for Lego sets as remakes abound among this year's releases. It seems that 2013 has provided us with more remakes than usual. Of note are the following sets with their predecessor in parentheses:
10240 UCS Red Five X Wing Starfighter (7191 USC X-Wing Fighter)
10937 Arkham Asylum Breakout (7785 Arkham Asylum)
79107 Commache Camp (6746 Chief's Tepee)
79109 Colby City Showdown (6765 Gold City Junction)
79110 Silver Mine Shootout (6761 Bandit's Secret Hideout)
41999 Co-Creation Model 4x4 Crawler Exclusive
60012 Coast Guard 4x4 & Diving Boat (7726 Coast Guard Truck with Speedboat)
60013 Coast Guard Helicopter (7738 Coast Guard Helicopter & Life Raft)
60014 Coast Guard Patrol (7739 Coast Guard Patrol Boat and Tower)
60020 Cargo Truck (7733 Truck and Forklift)
60022 Cargo Terminal (7734 Cargo Plane)
Yet to be announced, but still rumored for 2013 release:
10241 Maersk Container Ship (10155 and 10152 Maersk Container Ship)
60031 City Corner (7641 City Corner)
Not included in this list are all the new Castle sets which are pretty much all rehashes of prior Castle sets. Including these five, there are a whopping eighteen sets in 2013's model line that are rehashed versions of older sets. That's a big number, and I wonder if we'll see this trend continue into 2014 and beyond. While this is pure speculation, this could be one of TLC's prongs of attack in their war on resellers as pushing remakes will devalue the previously released sets. For a comprehensive discussion of this phenomenon, see this article by BP member Grolim linked here.
New Themes

2013 brought us three new themes: the controversial Legends of Chima, and two new licensed themes: Disney's The Lone Ranger, and Nickelodeon's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot (thanks to BP member Mikeur86 for his Lone Ranger Evaluation Corner article). While the investability of these themes have been poked and prodded over the last 6-8 months, it's important to note that while The Lone Ranger and TMNT themes are likely "one and done" themes, Lego has invested heavily in Legends of Chima, so expect to see more Chima sets released in 2014. Expect to see the next wave of Chima released in January 2014.
In addition to the new themes, it appears we have two new collectible themes that may be flying under the radar. Lego has released a new set called 10250 Year of the Snake, an homage to the Chinese Zodiac calendar. This Asia-only release is a really neat set, and indicative of TLC's attempt to crack the East Asian toy market. While Lego has had a strong presence in the Japanese market for years, China's burgeoning population and market potential has caused Lego to build a new factory in China and step up their marketing efforts in this area of the world. Year of the Snake is proof of this. 2014 will likely see a Year of the Horse model as Lego continues its appeal to the Chinese toy and collectible markets.
2013 also saw the seasonal polybag market expand with new seasonal polybags at a higher $8 price point that depicts scenes typical of the seasons with appropriately garbed minifigures. These seasonal polybags and Year of the Snake subthemese appear to be aimed at collectors, so if they take off these first version sets could become valuable.
Redefining the Creator Theme

Lego fans have grown to love the Creator theme for its sets that include instructions for multiple builds, and its model-like sets depicting any number of animals, vehicles, houses, etc. However, this year Lego has introduced an extension to the Creator theme entitled Creator Expert. This appears to be the first subtheme to Creator, and includes four high profile, exclusive sets that kick-off this subtheme with a bang: 10232 Palace Cinema, 10233 Horizon Express, 10234 Sydney Opera House and 10235 Winter Village Market, as well as the Asian exclusive 10250 Year of the Snake. These new exclusives have also helped to expand the Creator theme, from 15 in 2012 to 21 in 2013. Expect this line to continue to grow as the Creator Expert subtheme gets future exclusive models added. I would guess that as sets like VW Camper and Sopwith Camel are retired, their replacements will be added to the Creator Expert subtheme. This additional branding can only help the appeal of these exclusives and lend some structure to the entire Lego product line.
The Year of the Boat

After the announcement of Friends Dolphin Cruiser earlier this year, I began to think there were an incredible number of boats slated for 2013 release. Now that the 2013s are all either on shelves or announced, I've found I was right. Here are 2013's boat offerings of significance:
41015 Friends Dolphin Cruiser
60005 City Fire Boat
10241 Maersk Container Ship (assumed late 2013 released)
60015 Coast Guard Plane
60014 Coast Guard Patrol
70006 Cragger's Command Ship
76000 Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze
76006 Iron Man Extremis Sea Port Battle
79008 Pirate Ship Ambush
This list doesn't include any of the smaller Coast Guard and City boats that were released this year as well as these smalls typically rotate through the product line periodically. In comparison, there were only three substantial boats released in 2012: 3817 Sponge Bob Square Pants Flying Dutchman, 9446 Ninjago Destiny's Bounty, and 9499 Star Wars Gungan Sub. After this boat explosion in 2013, I would guess that TLC will likely go back to 2012 levels for boats. For boat enthusiasts, 2013 will be the year to target for your Lego collection. For Lego investors, don't assume boats will be back with a vengance in 2014.
A new license?
http://ts2.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.5044981320320609&pid=15.1&w=169&h=126&p=0
This year, Brickset released the names of new Lego polybags that would be released throughout the year. Among them was one I found very curious: 40200 BMW. A quick look at Brickset's 40200 page shows little information about release dates and locations, but it does show a picture of the polybag itself: 

While the polybag model doesn't appear too exciting or cutting edge, the fact that BMW has agreed to a licensing deal (however small) may open future opportunities for large, more iconic BMW licensed vehicles in the future. With BMW's ownership of the Mini brand, this could open up any number of iconic Mini vehicles for TLC to recreate as models. Lego's BMW license has me hoping for some future BMW or Mini vehicle sets for the Creator Expert subtheme to pair with the VW Beetle and Camper.
While there are probably hundreds of smaller trends that have come out of 2013's set lineup, these appear to be the most significant. As we start our descent back to earth, don't forget that for every trend we may think we've found, a surprise from TLC could be waiting around the corner that nullifies today's appearance of a trend. Constant scrutiny of the market will provide us the information we need as investors to make properly informed decisions. As always, invest accordingly.
I just wanted to remind members the Blog Article contest in ending at midnight on July 31, 2013. I also want to tell members to not forget about the SET REVIEWS as a way to earn BrickPoints. With the new BRICKPOINTS STORE feature now active, members can earn LEGO sets without spending a Penny or Pound of their money.
I wanted to point out a wonderful review of the 10188 Death Star submitted idunno101. Reviews like that can earn 200 or more Brickpoints very easily. The review was an nice mix of pictures, data and analysis. So keep this in mind when you want to earn some quick BrickPoints...
 
Craigslist can be a really irritating place for anyone looking to buy or sell something. Whenever I set up a listing, I always dread getting the emails from people asking if I will take half my price or if I will trade for a “engine that don't work real good, but has a lot of good parts”.
Is there any way to avoid this on Craigslist? We all know that selling locally is by far the best way to sell. As long as you don't have a store, you don't have to charge the person tax nor shipping at all so you can sell the item for a better price and make more money from it. And no fees! As well, you don't have to deal with keeping up with listings other than just answering email and meeting someone who wants to purchase your item.
So how do you effectively write a Craigslist Post so that you make sure you sell stuff as quickly as possible, get the best money for your item, and avoid the the people who seem to hang around Craigslist just to make it worse for others? Here are a couple of good rules to follow when creating one:
Make a title that is quick and to the point. Tell them exactly what the item is and whatever important details you want them to know. Some people write their listings very vague, possibly thinking that more people will look at them. For example “Box of Legos”. Yes a lot of different people might look at this listing, but everyone that emails you or calls you is wasting your time unless they purchase it. It's not like Ebay where people bid themselves and someone takes care of all the transaction exchanges and processes behind the scenes. Instead, list exactly what you have in the listing. “Large box of Star Wars and Lord of the Rings Lego Sets – Includes <set numbers>”. This will keep away anyone who is not interested in the listing. List a price in the “price” field– not just inside, especially if you are just listing one item. It is very irritating to a buyer when they can't figure out what you are asking for something until they click inside the listing. Plus again you will keep away the people that are out at that price range in the first place. Put your location in the location field and put your exact location in the listing. Making people look at your listing or have to ask you just to find out where you are is a waste of everyone's time. If you are selling a Lego set for $10, people who live 30 miles away from you are not going to be interested. Add good pictures to your listing. This is an absolute must. If the item has condition issues, or certain details you want to show, or you want them to see the best parts of your bulk items, you need to have good pictures of it. Again, the more vague it is, the more people that are going to look and then ask you questions. You want only people who are interested, so don't hide anything about your item. If you do, you are going to be sorry when you meet up with them and then they don't want it. Add a description to the listing that is short, concise, describes every single detail of what you are selling, and lets the buyer know whether you are firm or willing to talk. Again, this comes back to eliminating the non-serious buyers. If you put in your listing that you are firm on $500, you will hopefully keep away all the people that are trolling around with $100 offering it on everything they can find worth 5 times that amount. Make sure you write your post in complete sentences and use correct capitalization and punctuation. Everyone here knows what I am talking about. “Yeah I got these Legos a while back and I want to get rid of them my kids are not wanting them anymore but I paid a good amount for them so I'll take like $100 bucks because I got a bad back now and I need the money to make sure I can take care of my car that broke down the other day thanks” (I made that up but you get the picture). This is important past just not looking immature. If a seller sees something like this, they are going to come to you thinking they are dealing with someone that lacks professionalism and could be taken. You want to portray that you are not playing games. The more serious and professional your posts are, the more serious and professional people you will get. Leave a preferred method of contact. I like email much better than phone. Make sure the buyer knows how to get to you and make sure you respond to anyone who answers you. These people could look at your listings in the future and if they recognize your listings and you never respond, they won't keep contacting you. If you do these things, you should have about as positive an experience selling Legos on Craigslist as you can. You won't always be away from the crazies, but you avoid that 11.25% Fee-bay charges you.
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
Return On Investment (ROI) is a common tool used to see how an investment did. Most of the members on Brickpicker know about the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). There is a formula that goes with CAGR to predict how a set will do for future investments. I always say that the CAGR formula is used before investing. Now here is a formula explaining how your investment did after you made your profit. The formula for ROI is very simple and each part of it will be explained.
ROI = (Gain from Investment - Cost of investment)/ Cost of Investment
Gain from Investment: How much money did you gain from your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings and then sold them for $250 each. My gain from this sale would be $500 USD. Cost of Investment: How much money did you spend on your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings. That is the cost of investment: $400 USD. If you do not want to mix up all your numbers here is a simplified version of the equation. ROI = Profit / Cost of Investment
Profit: How much money you made from a sale. From the above version, it is $100 USD. My sales totaled $500 USD, but my expenses were $400 USD, thus making my profit $100 USD. Cost of Investment: Same exact description as the one above. Now, lets try this out.
Example A
Say that you bought one set for $9.99 USD. (This is a retail price) Then you wait three to four years before selling it. You sold it for $27.89 USD.
ROI = (27.89 - 9.99) / 9.99
ROI = 17.9 / 9.99
ROI = 1.79
ROI = 179%
To change the answer from a number to a percent, just multiply your final answer by 100. And remember that you must figure out your profit first before doing anything else.
Example B
Say that you bought a set on sale for $125.38 USD. You wait four years before selling it. You sell it for $479.67 USD.
ROI = (479.67 - 125.38) / 125.38
ROI = 354.29 / 125.38
ROI = 2.83
ROI = 283%
While the retail for the set is $129.99 USD. You sell it for $479.67 USD after waiting four years.
ROI = (479.67 - 129.99) / 129.99
ROI = 349.68 / 129.99
ROI = 2.69
ROI = 269%
The ROI of an investment can change depending on the purchase price. As you can see above, the ROI was greater when the set was purchase on sale. Although it was a mere $5 USD difference, the ROI difference was 14%. A higher ROI is always better.
The ROI is a very useful tool that helps determining how well your investment was. Now, go check all your investments and see how you did!
Thanks for reading!
 
I think the generally consensus on the Lord of the Rings theme among investors is that it will follow in the footsteps of the latest Harry Potter sets and be huge gainers. Though we haven't seen any of the theme's first line of set's retire, you can look at some of the prices currently for the sets and see a lot of them have barely lost any value before retirement. These don't have to go far to have a very positive CAGR (Like 9474 Helm's Deep) . One set in 9476 The Orc Forge is already doing incredibly (50% CAGR and not officially retired yet!!!).
But as we all wait for the third movie's line of sets and the obvious Eye of Souron we are all waiting for, what do we have out of the second line that could be a big time set for investors? I am going to go through all the sets and describe them as well as give my views on theme from an investment and Playbility/Building point.
The Wizard Battle 79005

From the Lego website:
Recreate The Wizard Battle at The Tower of Orthanc, as Gandalf the Grey takes on his mentor and old friend, Saruman, who has fallen under the influence of Sauron while gazing into his palantir. Saruman will stop at nothing to deliver the One Ring to his new master and serve him by helping to conquer Middle-earth. Avoid the spinning palantir’s spell, cast powerful staff magic and send Saruman flying from his throne! Stay away from Sauron’s mesmerizing gaze or risk being enslaved yourself! Includes 2 minifigures with staffs: Gandalf the Grey and Saruman.
• Includes 2 minifigures: GandalfTM the Grey and Saruman
• Features throne with flick function, spinning palantir with Eye of Sauron and cool yellow lamps
• Weapons include 2 staffs
• Push the throne flicker and send Saruman flying!
• Battle Saruman and stay away from his spinning palantir
• Avoid being mesmerized by the Eye of Sauron
• Measures over 7" (18cm) high, 4" (11cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep
My Analysis: Honestly, when I saw this set I was just a bit disappointed with it. I think this really came from the fact that I assumed that we would see the tower of Orthanic along with it. Now, don't get me wrong, I will discuss the Tower of Orthanic shortly and am still pretty satisfied with that set, but this one is a bit underwhelming to me for that reason. I would have rather them done a different scene for the small set and sort of include this with the Tower.
Past what I would have done (Obviously Lego is smarter than me), I don't really know investment-wise that this set has much to offer. Neither minifigure is exclusive although Sarumon is only in one other set at the moment being the Tower of Orthanic. Both minifigures are a little bit different than their counterparts in other sets so if someone really wants to collect everything, they will want this. Honestly to me, this is another 9469 Gandolf Arrives in that it's a decent little set, but nothing investors should look at.
I will say that the playability with this set should be off the chart though. You have the small little duel area along with the mystic ball showing the Eye of Souron which is pretty awesome looking. Think about all the kids that will buy this set and have these minifigures flying around pointing their wizard sticks at each other. Pretty cool. While I don't think it's a great investment set, I think it will sell really well while it's around because of the decent price per piece of $.11 and the play-ability value.
The Council of Elron 79006

From the Lego website:
Plan the downfall of Sauron at The Council of Elrond!
Build the majestic Elven city of Rivendell, home to Elrond and his beautiful warrior-princess daughter, Arwen. Call Gimli and Frodo Baggins to The Council of Elrond to plan the destruction of the One Ring and the defeat of Sauron. Place the Ring on the podium and recreate this classic scene from The Fellowship of the Ring! Send Gimli flying with the launch function when he tries to destroy the Ring with his axe. Beware the Eye of Sauron, as he draws closer to the Ring that will lead to the fall of Middle-earth! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo Baggins and Gimli.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo BagginsTM and GimliTM
• Features Rivendell setting with unique Elven wall arches, weapon rack, steps, tree, 3 chairs, a podium with minifigure launch function and the hidden Eye of Sauron
• Includes 4 weapons: golden Elven sword, bow, Sting and an axe
• Also includes the One Ring • Collect the autumn-color leaf elements
• Send GimliTM flying with the catapult function!
• Beware the evil Eye of Sauron!
• Recreate the majestic home of Elrond
• Rivendell setting measures over 5" (15cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep
My Analysis: This set is really an intriguing one. It is definitely one that can get lost in the other set's because of it's lack of a battle context. On the other hand, this set is one of the most iconic scenes of the movie and even more, has become legendary because of Boromir's “One can not simply” line which may even be more popular than the actual scene. This set also comes with Arwen, which is an exclusive figure to this set as well as Elrond, an exclusive variant of the figure.
However, I think some people will not like the fact that this scene was done without Boromir. He had one of the top lines of the movie. Now, you can say “many of the other council figures are here either”, but Boromir is who I think of when I think of this scene. The only way to get him is to have Mines of Moria which will be gone shortly and is a much more expensive set. I think that will hurt the sale of this set. Maybe in the future it will not matter when they are both retired, but I just really think this set could have been better. Anyone who has seen the Lego concept ideas with the whole Elf Village knows this set could have had quite a bit more.
Playability wise, I think its a decent set if you have a bunch of the other sets and can fill out the minfigures. I'm afraid though at $.12 a piece there is not enough here for people to really jump on it. My thoughts would be there are better sets in the line to invest money into.
The Battle at the Black Gate 79007

From the Lego website:
Defeat the forces of Sauron in a great Battle at the Black Gate!
Fly the Great Eagle high above the Black Gate of Mordor where Aragorn and Gandalf the White must distract the Eye of Sauron. Use them to stage a scene while Frodo Baggins and his friend Sam throw the One Ring into the fiery depths of Mount Doom and destroy it forever. To reach the Ring’s final destination, you must defeat the Mouth of Sauron and the Mordor Orcs positioned high in the spiked gate walls. Then breach the gate and lead the attack on the enemy! Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: Aragorn, Gandalf the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 Mordor Orcs
• Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: AragornTM, GandalfTM the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 MordorTM Orcs
• Black Gate features cool spiked detailing, opening and locking doors, secret entrance and a catapult
• Also includes a poseable horse
• Includes 5 weapons: staff, 3 swords and a ball and chain
• Combine multiple sets for even bigger battles
• Defeat the Mouth of Sauron on the poseable horse!
• Look out for flying catapult rocks!
• Sneak through the secret entrance!
• Soar into the air on the Great Eagle
• Collect the never-before-seen Mouth of Sauron and Aragorn™ decoration and cape
• Black Gate of Mordor™ (with gate closed) measures over 8" (22cm) high, 11" (30cm) wide and 2" (7cm) deep
• Great Eagle wingspan measures over 7" (19cm)
My analysis: Honestly I could just immediately say “Buy it” and you all could move on. I am going to expand on that, but if you are looking for a quick answer, that's the one.
What's not to love with this set? Everyone loves the gates and castle's that Lego has done and this one is just amazingly impressive. First off, it has 5 minifigures which is really solid for a $60 set. It also includes one that is exclusive in the mouth of Saur. Though he wont be incredibly sought after, he is really an awesome looking figure. It also comes with two orcs which is always good for army building. The Black gate itself if really a daunting shade of black and is designed perfectly so that you can create giant walls and combine this set with others to really make an impressive scene, It's also only $.09 a piece which is incredible for a licensed set with this many minifigures. Honestly I think people would have paid $80 for this set.
On top of all this it comes with a black horse and the great eagle figure which an awesome size for display and play-ability. The gate itself also has some cool features in a secret entrance and the flying catapult rocks which will really make kids want this.
I think this is going to be one of the sets to have of the whole LOTR series and will really post an impressive mid-size set CAGR. Make sure you have tons of these before they EOL (which will be a long while). Make sure you build at least one or two as well. I guarantee it will see a CAGR of 35+ in the first year (My guarantees do not have a penalty so don't take that as a real guarantee )
The Pirate Ambush 79008

From the Lego Website:
Launch an ambush attack on the Sauron Army from the Pirate Ship!
On the shores of Minas Tirith, Sauron’s Mordor Orcs prepare to greet their allies aboard the Pirate Ship – but all is not as it seems. Pull up alongside them, drop the anchors and lead a surprise attack with Aragorn, Gimli, Legolas Greenleaf and the Army of the Dead. This majestic Corsair ship features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbow and loads of armor and weapons! Capture the Orc catapult and lead the glow-in-the-dark King of the Dead and his soldiers into battle at the War of the Ring! Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: Aragorn, Legolas Greenleaf, Gimli, 2 Mordor Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar.
• Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: AragornTM, Legolas GreenleafTM, GimliTM, 2 MordorTM Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar
• Features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbows and lots of great Middle-earth Corsair detailing
• Also features firing Orc catapult with wheels
• Weapons include 3 swords, 3 crossbows, 3 spears, axe, long axe, bow with quiver and a longbow
• Accessories include 10 plain shields, 14 decorated shields, shackles, 2 torches, 2 keys, rat, bread, diamond, coins, maps, goblets and a chain
• Lock up the Pirate of Umbar so he doesn’t escape!
• Fend off the Orcs with the crossbow!
• Turn off the lights to see The Army of the Dead glow in the dark
• Drop the anchors and lead the charge against the Orc forces
• Measures over 13" (35cm) high, 23" (60cm) long and 5" (14cm) wide
• Catapult measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (8cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
My Analysis: After the first couple sets in the new wave of this theme were a little underwhelming, it seems Lego more than compensated us. This set is incredible looking. This is a very popular scene from the movie and a good change of pace from all of the castle battles. The pirate ship is incredibly detailed and just has a nasty dead look to it (I mean that in a really great way).
Though the set has a relatively low number of pieces for a $100 set, it has 9 minifigures! On top of this, 4 of them are exclusive which is relatively unheard of in a movie themes like this. These include the coolest minifigures of the set in The King of the Dead, both Soldiers of the Dead, and the Pirate of Umbar.
From an investment standpoint, I just really can't find anything at all wrong with this set. It has the four exclusive minifigures as well as 9 total. It's also a pirate ship which have done incredibly well as Lego sets. Queen Anne's Revenge 4195 has a CAGR of 37.45% and 4184 the Black Pearl has a CAGR of 29.38%! This means we can expect something around 30% CAGR on the low side. I would venture this set may do even better because of the fact that Lord of the Rings was more popular than The Pirates of the Carribean,.
Playability is pretty obvious as well with all the minifigures, the details on the ship and the catapult. Just all around a great set with no downsides. I will have one or two to display as long as plenty to invest in. I would suggest you do the same.
The Tower of Orthanic 10237

From the Lego website:
Build the The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy must-have model!
Finally, collect one of the most instantly recognizable and iconic buildings of The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy: The Tower of Orthanc™! Build all 6 highly detailed floors filled with fascinating movie-related details including the attic, library, alchemy room, Saruman’s throne room, entrance hall and dungeon. This exclusive model stars in some of the most iconic scenes from The Lord of the Rings movies. Swoop down with the Great Eagle and rescue stranded Gandalf the Grey from his tower-top prison after his defeat at the hands of the white wizard, Saruman. Build the powerful, tree-like Ent, with poseable limbs and cool swinging arm function, then attack the Uruk-hai and Orc Pitmaster while Saruman and his servant Grima Wormtongue take refuge high in the tower. The Tower of Orthanc is a must-have model for any The Lord of the Rings collection! Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf the Grey, an Uruk-hai and the Orc Pitmaster.
• Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf™ the Grey, an Uruk-hai™ and the Orc Pitmaster
• Features 6 highly detailed floors with lots of functions, including a folding staircase, LEGO® light brick palantir, opening entrance doors and a trap door
• Weapons include 5 staffs, knife, sword, shield and a long axe
• The attic features a folding staircase, the 3 staffs of the missing wizards, the 2 keys of the Two Towers, 2 maps and an Uruk-hai helmet, shield and sword
• The library features 2 books, 2 torches, 2 maps and 2 skulls
• The alchemy room features 2 torches, a bomb (being produced for the Battle of Helm’s Deep™), 2 potions, bottle, skull, gunpowder keg, pot, cauldron and a long axe
• Saruman’s throne room features lamps, 2 bookcases with 3 potions, map, letter and the powerful palantir with a LEGO light brick
• The entrance hall features opening doors, trap door, 2 large banners, chandelier, statue and 2 axes
• The creepy dungeon features a chain, 2 bones, 2 skulls and a rat
• Buildable Ent features poseable limbs for holding a minifigure and a cool swinging arm function
• Attack the tower with the cool buildable and poseable Ent!
• Swoop to the rescue with the Great Eagle!
• Activate the LEGO light brick and make the palantir glow!
• Set the trap door and banish unwanted guests to the dungeon!
•Prepare the bomb for the Battle of Helm’s Deep!
• Swing the Ent’s arms to smash or grab things with the poseable fingers!
• Measures over 28" (73cm) high, 8" (21cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
• Ent stands over 9" (23cm) tall
My Analysis: If you think I liked the last couple of sets in this line, take it and multiply it by 100 for this set. As Ed said in a recent thread, this is an incredibly impressive set (Ed said it looked much better than the new UCS X-Wing).
Before I give more analysis, I want to offer something as an example of the Tower's Power (It should have surname of Tower of Power. Man that was a great band. I digress). My wife recently bought a 3D puzzle from Barnes and Noble of the Tower of Orthanic. It is in our kitchen. Everyone that has come in our house has commented on how awesome it is:

This tower, that everyone has found impressive, is made of foam puzzle pieces. Not Legos. Looking at this set, my puzzle conversation piece has absolutely nothing on Lego's Tower. I think we will have this in the kitchen as well and anyone who comes in our house will never shut up about it.
Along with the set, you get 5 minifigures with one of them being Grima Wormtounge who is exclusive to the set. You also get a great Eagle and one of my most anticipated minifigure: Ent. This guy is going to be a big time money maker. I would venture to say he is one of the top 5 characters from the movie and with his giant stature (9 inches tall) he will be one of the best minifigures out there. He adds a ton of playability and investment stature to this set.
Just with everything above, this set would be a winner. But now we are adding the fact that this is a Hard to Find, expensive set. It is also a Lego Exclusive meaning pretty much no discounts ever on it (since there isn't a LOTR special Lego day to get half price on a set) , keeping the price high. I really completely believe this set will see SW UCS set gains with it being worth up to $600-$800 in 4-5 years after retirement. It is a complete set and the fact that it matches up with the black gate just makes it even more desirable. Everyone that gets that Black Gate is going to want this set.
Make sure you have as many of these as possible when it goes away. You will not be sorry.
Well there you have it. I know I will have one of each of these to build and be looking to get each of the Gate, Ship, and Tower for investing purposes. I think this line will be the best gaining theme of 2013 and possibly even better than the recent Harry Potter line. Plus these movies are already out and are done which means the series can't go down or have a bad movie like the Star Wars line and the Hobbit line and wont ever have duplicates most likely.
What do you all think? Do you share my optimism or do you see any downfalls?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
Most of us here love when we sell a set online, no matter what it is. That sound of "cha-ching" comes and we are in Ecstasy. It brings a feeling like no other .
But, unfortunately we are generally immediately brought down to earth by the fact that we now have to ship it. If you all are like me, you hate this part. You can never decide exactly how much shipping is going to be and whether you should add extra services. You always worry something will happen during the shipment. You ask yourself, Should I get insurance? Should I get delivery confirmation? Should I get signature confirmation?
I used to run a small side-project/business out of my apartment in college and shipped and received 100s of packages. I have had the best and worst experiences with each carrier so I can offer some direct experience with each and provide some advice towards our final assumptions. As well, I have compiled some research using shipping calculators so we can judge when we should use each service.
First off, we know that price is going to matter more than anything else, so I picked four normal package sizes based off common sets and then compiled the data. I then added a few inches to the dimensions (doesn't affect the price) and weighed boxes at these dimensions and rounded to give us a good control of what the boxes this size will add to the weight. Below weights are the total weight after the box is added.
I came up with the following: Weight Dimensions(LxWxH)
Battle Pack size 2lbs 11x8x2 Medium set (Orc Forge) 3lbs 12x15x4 Large sets (Helm's Deep) 6.5lbs 24x16x5 Massive set (Tower Bridge) 11.5lbs 42x12x18 Now I had to figure out distances to ship. I live in a southern state in the East, Alabama, so I decided to start from there. Shipping is all an equation used by the shipping entities, so I chose a short normal distance and a longer distance so we see a little of both and find out where we should use each service.
My short distance is about `280 miles, or Alabama to Kentucky. The results are below. The “Ebay” column inside the FEDEX part is the discount you get by using FEDEX through Ebay.

Here are the services time to delivery:
USPS Priority 2-3 Days (Not Guaranteed) USPS Parcel Select 2-9 Days (Guaranteed) FEDEX (Home Delivery) 2-3 Day (Guaranteed) UPS (Ground) 3-5 Days (Guaranteed) As you can see from the above data, for the two smaller package sizes, USPS is king. Parcel select is actually higher than Priority, which is weird, but USPS is significantly cheaper than the other carriers and they offer priority 2-3 Days which, though not guaranteed.
However, around the Large package, the FEDEX price starts to even out whereas the UPS and USPS (Priority) keep going up. USPS and FEDEX are basically on par at this point (Though through Ebay FEDEX is cheaper).
Once we get to the massive set, USPS parcel select seems to be the best option, but the length of time it could take might come into play (although this is a short distance so it may not be a problem). FEDEX is reasonable at $23.27, and with Ebay even more so.
Whats wild is that UPS is never really in contention at all. Unless you have a discount, you are going to overpay using UPS for a relatively normal shipping distance.
Now, I decided to do a longer distance, from the East to the West, so I chose Alabama to Arizona, or about 1500 miles. Here are the results:

This was really interesting. I had always assumed USPS was always the cheapest shipping company, but this doesn't seem to be the case.
USPS Priority is still the cheapest fast service for the Battle Packs and the medium sets. Parcel Select is just a slight bit cheaper, but not worth it in my opinion as going this far it will most likely take 5-6 days at least. You can spend 50 cents more and get guaranteed 3 Day with FEDEX Home Delivery.
Looking at the Large packages, there is no contest. FEDEX clearly shines above the rest. Its even cheaper that USPS Parcel Select which can take up to 9 days!
As we get to the massive sets, though, FEDEX takes a huge jump, most likely because they don't offer anything less than 2-3 days. USPS parcel select picks up the slack with a very reasonable $24.25. It may take quite a long time to get there, but its $20 cheaper which you or the buyer if they are paying it will appreciate.
Final Verdict on Price
USPS wins no matter where you are shipping for battle pack and medium sized sets. FEDEX is a close and acceptable second because of the guaranteed faster ship times. As the weight gets heavier within this range, FEDEX becomes the best option as the prices become negligibly different.
In the Large set range, FEDEX wins at both distances. Though USPS is about the same with Parcel select and just a bit more with Priority, FEDEX guaranteed delivery times puts them over the top.
As for massive sets, ship with USPS parcel select unless you have to get it there quick. You will save almost half off. If you have to ship it fast, ship it FEDEX or you are going to pay an arm and a leg.
Add-on options
Tracking and Delivery Confirmation
The most popular add-on is tracking as we all know hat tpeople want to know when their item is going to get there and where it is just in case there is a delay. All three services offer this. However, USPS is the only one that charges for it. If you go up to the counter, it is $.90, but online it is only $.20. Its worth it to have, but doesn't really change what we said about the price because when USPS won, it was by more than this small of an amount.
FEDEX and UPS both offer very robust tracking and update very often. They have complex computer systems that keep track of it and they are very good at estimating when it will be somewhere. This also makes it a lot more trustworthy if something goes wrong; you will always know where your package was lost.
USPS tracking is not on the same par with these two though. They do update it, but not very often and the timestamps are usually pretty far off.
Tracking verdict
UPS and FEDEX are equally good. USPS has it and its reasonable if you need it, but is not to the level of the other carriers.
Signed Delivery
USPS offers this for 2.20 flat no matter who it is and what the package is. FEDEX offers three services: Signature delivery (2.25), Designated Signature (3.50), and Adult only Signature (4.50). These are flat across any shipment. UPS offer 2 services: Signature delivery (4.25) and Adult only (5.25). These are flat across any shipment.
Signed Delivery Verdict
Most of us will only use normal delivery signature. Its about the same for USPS and FEDEX so both get the nod here. Again, UPS is price gouging.
Insurance
USPS rates are shown below:
$1.65 ................ $0.01 to $50 value
$2.05 ................ $50.01 to $100 value
$2.45 ................ $100.01 to $200 value
$4.60 ................ $200.01 to $300 value
Add $.90 per $100 in value
FEDEX offers free insurance up to $100 value, from $100-$300 value it costs $2.10, and for past that you add $.70 per $100 in value.
UPS is free up to $100 in value. Past that it is $.85 per $100 in value.
Insurance Verdict
FEDEX is a pretty clear winner here because they offer it free on the cheaper sets and has the lowest rate thereafter. Also, I have found that they and UPS are equally good at following through and approving insurance claims.
USPS unfortunately is the exact opposite and makes it a nasty process.
Reliability
This section is straight from experience as I have used all three shipping services as a buyer and seller and I also work for a company that has a deal with all three and I ship out things every day there as well.
USPS is by far the least reliable. You can't really trust their tracking and I have lost far more packages in their system. Also, they really struggle between corporate and local branches with communication. If you ever have a question or lose a package, everyone will tell you that someone else will know about it.
UPS and FEDEX are both pretty reliable. I have had really no problems with either of them losing packages. FEDEX would get the slight nod as they pretty much never leave packages on your doorstep. Some people may like them left, but if I am not home I would rather they take them back to the office than to set them on the doorstep and hope no one takes them.
Reliability Verdict
FEDEX and UPS are on even ground though FEDEX is more responsible about leaving packages.
Customer Service
This one is the most fun to comment on . In my experience, and plenty of others, USPS has worst customer service than people running a torture chamber. Generally, when I have to go in my local USPS, there is 1 person working with 500 people in the store. Most of the cashiers are generally rude. In the post office, you must pay for items like tape. They barely ever have pens out for people to use. And the line is always 20 people long at least. As I mentioned before, their corporate system is basically worthless to call as they don't communicate with the Local offices and can't really (or don't want to) look up anything. They get a resounding F.
FEDEX is my favorite. Most of them are way nicer than a normal post office inside. They generally have very nice customer service oriented cashiers who are very nice and very understanding and helpful. I recently went to one where they had misplaced my package for a moment and the women apologized no less than 10 times. I don't think I have ever heard someone from USPS apologize. Their corporate is really good – although I have only had to call them a couple of times because their local people get their stuff done. They will also give you free tape if you need it which wins awards in my book. They get an A.
The USPS is pretty nice too, really to the equivalent of FEDEX. I have had a couple of instances where I had weird items to ship and they always found a box and always had what I needed. They don't make you pay for tape and sometimes will just give you a box for free. They get an A.
Customer Service Verdict
FEDEX and UPS are even and USPS is a largely distanced 3rd.
Other considerations
If you must ship across country, USPS does have priority flat rate shipping boxes. The smallest one will not fit any Lego sets that aren't worth shipping another way. However, for medium sized sets that weigh more than 3-4lbs and for some smaller dimensioned large sets, this can be nice as the medium and large priority boxes are around $10. Only use this though if you are going to ship something around 2000 miles or more as the shipping prices would be about $12 or over. If you are shipping something like a poly-bag that weighs less than 13 ounces, ship USPS first class mail. The others don't offer cheaper rates for small items bigger than a letter, but USPS does and its really cheap. Where FEDEX and UPS will cost you around $3-4 for a poly-bag, USPS will be in the sub $2 range. USPS priority is not guaranteed 2-3 days, but in my experience they meet this about 95% of the time or more, so don't let it factor into your considerations too much. If you are shipping with Ebay, check FEDEX prices as they get that nice 12% discount we talked about. Always make sure you print and ship online as the carriers, especially USPS, offer cheaper online prices to keep foot traffic out of the branches. Though UPS is expensive, a lot of larger companies have big deals with them. At my office, we can ship with UPS for almost half price. This is available to all employees for personal use. Final Verdict
FEDEX gets the nod as the best shipping company. If you want to ship without insurance and are shipping something 3lbs or under, you can use USPS. Otherwise, if you want to factor in reliability, customer service, and the price for add-ons, FEDEX is the clear winner.
Does this change any of your opinions? Do any of your experiences contradict mine?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
In the LEGO investing world, the CITY theme is one of the least talked about and somewhat ignored by most investors. Other than the trains, it seems a lot of people simply don’t pay enough attention to the theme, maybe because there are a lot of re-released sets, mostly targeted to kids or its very generic nature. Having said that, the theme is a pretty good performer overall, with a CAGR of around 13.00%, above the average LEGO set/theme, and is probably the only theme you can keep constantly expanding and recreate a very complete LEGO city. I recommend you to look into the theme and try to learn a little bit more about it, as with any investment, diversification is key.
After that short introduction, my main purpose with this article is to showcase one of the best performer sub-themes of LEGO CITY, the airport/plane themed sets. No city will ever be complete until there is a functional airport that serves commercial and private entities, and LEGO fans of all ages know this very well. Even more, planes in general are one of the most successful LEGO investments you can make, as a previous article in the Evaluation Corner explains, given their popularity with people of all ages.
Something else CITY airport themed sets have going for them is the fact that, unlike fire or police stations, you can keep expanding airports as long as you would like, as that is usually how real world airports work. I am not saying that you can’t purchase two different CITY fire stations and have a really large one, but I think you will agree that one is usually enough, as they are very similar. On the other hand, by purchasing several of the airport sets you can expand your airport, getting more terminals and of course adding several planes, it just looks more realistic in my opinion.
Before we go into the specifics, let’s take a look at the overall statistics of the Airport sub-theme. First of all, I selected the 9 sets that have already been retired on the airport sub-theme (and a couple really similar ones from the cargo sub theme) from Brickpicker’s price guide to calculate the numbers, so the upcoming sets to be released later this year were not included. Based on that information, we can see that the average CAGR of this sub-theme is around 20.22 %, a very high number well above the average LEGO theme. In fact, if we took this number and placed the whole airport sub-theme into Brickpicker’s theme ranking, it would make the Top 15, above Harry Potter, Sculptures and some other popular ones.
Let’s now take a look at individual (Retired) sets, including some promotional ones as well:
- 3182 Airport


Comments: This set is the largest one produced to date on the Airport sub-theme, with 703 pieces. A must have to any city, this set is really detailed and comes with a really cool plane, so you are basically getting most of the things you need to start building your international airport. The plane can be opened and played with inside, and there is even a nice baggage cart to take the bags out of it.
Investment wise, this set has done outstandingly well. The airport retired only by the end of last year, and while in November it had a Market Value of around $ 106, to get one now it will cost you almost $ 150. That’s an almost 50 % change over retail in just a few months.
- 7894 Airport


Comments: Very different in appearance to the newer version, but still almost the same when it comes to size and piece count. As 3182, the set also included a plane, but its main appeal, in my opinion, is the inclusion of the jetway that is not present in any other airport themed set and is an extremely necessary section. As I said before, these differences between the main two airport terminal sets really allow for anyone to buy several copies and build them together while still adding some realism to their city.
As its younger sibling, this set has appreciated nicely since it retired a few years back, with a CAGR of close to 10 % at this point and a market value of over $ 150. It seems that sealed copies of this set are somewhat hard to find, and the only ones currently listed on eBay ask for almost $ 300!
- 7734 Cargo Plane


Comments: This is a really cool plane that used to be the only cargo plane you could buy to add to your airport, something that will change with some of the upcoming sets. Not being the traditional passenger plane, this set is the one that has appreciated the best at this point in the airport sub-theme with a CAGR of almost 40 % and currently selling for over $ 200. The set appears to have stabilized a while ago, but we will have to see how the market reacts to the new Cargo Terminal that is going to be released later in the year. Still, given that this plane is so much different from the newer one, propellers vs. jet engines, and that people will likely prefer to add some variety to their airport, I don’t see this set being hurt too much.
-7893 Passenger Plane


Comments: The largest passenger plane released and the only one with four jet engines has also been an investment powerhouse over the years. The set has been retired for almost five full years and still presents a CAGR of over 20 %, with a current market value of around $ 160, translated to a 300% change over retail. Considering that the set originally retailed for $ 40, this has proven to be one of the best plane sets investment wise released under the CITY theme.
- 7733 Truck and Forklift


Comments: Not exclusively an airport themed set, but one that fits nicely into the category now that the new Cargo Terminal themed sets are coming out, including a remake of this very same truck. The 7733 set has appreciated nicely to over the past few years, and considering it was retired some time by the end of 2009 and beginning of 2010, its almost 30 % CAGR demonstrates a great performance. The set itself is very interesting, and we can hope that the new version is as popular as this one has been so far. For a set with a MSRP of only $ 25.00 there are very few listings for it in MISB condition on eBay, and the ones currently available ask for almost double the price guide’s value, so apparently the set went under the radar of most investors at the time.
- 3181 Passenger Plane


Comments: One of the smaller planes released, this set was just retired around October of last year. There is not much to this set other than the plane and a small tow truck, but in my opinion it serves it purpose and allows for a more realistic airport, with planes of different design and sizes. As far as growth, this one has gone up somewhat slowly, but with some CITY sets that’s usually the way they work, most of them just don’t shoot up quickly in value, but rather have slow but steady movements. So far, it has a CAGR of around 8 % and sells for $ 50, but look for it to continue moving up and reach maybe $ 70 by the end of the year.
- 3222 Helicopter and Limousine


Comments: This little set is also one of the top performers in the list, since it was a Walmart exclusive and only lasted around four months on the shelves, factors that usually lead to abnormal returns in most sets. With an original retail of $ 30, the Helicopter and Limousine is currently selling for almost three times retail, and from the current listings on eBay it should continue to go up in the coming months.
- 7891 Airport Fire Truck


Comments: There is always need for an emergency vehicle at the airport, just in case one of the planes has a little accident while landing or taking off. This is the set that fills that gap and is actually one of the older ones present in the list. There is really not much to the set other than being a yellow fire truck, but it has done reasonable well in the secondary market with a CAGR of more than 14 %, more than doubling in value.
- 3178 Seaplane


Comments: Once you start getting into the smaller sets, the only way to make a decent amount of profit is either by moving a lot of them or by picking the ones that just explode in value. This little Seaplane falls into the first category, since with a CAGR of around 11% it has only gone up less than $ 5.00, and the fact that it was available for a lot more than two years does not help either. Still, this set was just retired at the end of last year, so there is plenty of time for it to grow.
Growth of sets with less than 100 pieces

Growth of promotional sets

The sets above complete the whole list of sets under the Airport theme, with the smallest sets that have less than 100 pieces and all of the promotional sets that were given out in some way or the other. As you would expect, some of this hard to find promotional sets have become very valuable, especially the 2928 that was only given as a promotion with a partnership with some major airlines.
Now that we have examined some of the past sets in the airport sub-theme, is worth mentioning that there are no more currently for sale in stores, but that will be changing in a couple months when LEGO releases for of its 2013 CITY set. In my opinion, you would be wise in taking a look into them and maybe deciding to invest in at least a couple in a way to diversify your Brickfolio. Even more I think that from the historical performance of this sub-theme, you really should not be disappointed. I will list the upcoming sets next.
60022 Cargo Terminal: This is in my opinion the most promising set of the ones to be released later in 2013. From the past performance of the only Cargo Plane, I would expect this set to be a similar performer in the secondary market, and for some reason it is my belief that a lot of investors will not pay too much attention to it in the end. You better be on the other side of the aisle!
60021 Cargo Heliplane: Very cool looking aircraft again focused more in cargo transportation than passengers. There is not that much information about this set at the time, but it does look to be a very solid investment choice, especially since it is another Cargo focused plane and not really a plane you get to see that often.
60020 Cargo Truck: If you remember from an earlier section of our article, we examined an extremely similar set: 7733 Truck and Forklift. This is almost the exact same set released again under a different name and, if all goes the way I think, could very easily recreate the same growth trend of its predecessor. It is not a fancy or really remarkable set, so I think investors will once again miss on the chance and not stock up on this one, something some may regret later!
60019 Stunt Plane: This is probably going to be the smallest of the 2013 CITY airport sets, but at the same time is also a very unique one. A stunt plane could prove to be very popular, but there is really not much information from previous sets that can help us determine how it might do in the future.
And that’s it as far as LEGO CITY airport sets are concerned. I really hope this article will bring some of the investors who haven’t though too much about CITY as an investment to maybe research it a little bit more and see that there are actually some really nice returns in several different sets. Also, more specifically in the airport sub-theme, you see that there are a lot of really great performers, so if you want to start investing in CITY and already have some of the trains, your next best bet might be investing in planes and airports!
Thanks for reading.
 
Disclaimer: All references to tax law refer to US tax law under the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Posts are my thoughts only and should not be taken as authoritative statements of the law. I once held a CPA certification, but it is no longer active. Please do your own research and consult a licensed professional for all legal, tax, and accounting matters.
It's been said that there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes.
The tax implications from selling your LEGO can vary depending on many factors. According to the IRS, whenever profit is made on a transaction, the result is taxable income. Realistically speaking, since it is usually up to the seller to self-report the taxable income, there are hundreds of thousands of transactions every day that "fall under the tax radar." Selling a few sets on eBay may keep you under the radar for a while, but the more transactions you do and the more money you make will speed up the inevitability that sooner or later, you will have to pay taxes on your profits. (Note: the biggest exception to self-reporting is If you make more than $600 in a year from any one source, you may get a "1099-MISC" from that source which reports your income to the IRS.)

So how is my LEGO income taxed?
Because the US tax code is so vast, there are a number of different ways your LEGO income could be taxed. In my experience, there are three main categories: hobby, investment, and business.
If your LEGO activity is a hobby, it means you have no intent on making a profit and can only deduct expenses up to any income. This classification is not actually desirable from a tax perspective and the IRS uses it to re-class "business losses" that some taxpayers use to offset other income.
Most of us that are using the "buy and hold" technique would classify our LEGO as an investment....and the IRS would agree. According to IRS Topic 409, collectibles are considered a "capital asset" for tax purposes. Think of your LEGO as in the same category as artwork, coins, stamps, or any other collectible that may hold value. So what does this mean to your LEGO profits? It means that the tax you owe depends on how long you owned the product. If you sell LEGO that you held for less than 1 year, then it is considered a short-term capital gain, it is taxed at your normal income tax rate (up to 39.6%), and you can only net your short-term capital losses. If you had owned that same LEGO for more than 1 year, then the profit is a long-term capital gain, taxed at a maximum of 28%, and can be netted against any long-term or short term capital losses. Furthermore, you can deduct up to $1500 in net capital losses per year ($3,000 if filing jointly with spouse) against your normal income and can be carried forward to future years. So long-term classification is better from a tax perspective, but you cannot deduct property held for personal use - it has to be an investment. Capital gains and losses are reported on Schedule D and reported on an individual tax return (1040).
Lastly, those that engage in LEGO buying and selling with an intent to make profit may classify their activity as a business. This classification has pros and cons. Pros include the ability to "write off" all expenses related to your activities and even report a tax loss on your tax return (offsetting your other income). The cons are mostly twofold: 1) many, many more documentation requirements and 2) paying self-employment taxes (currently 15.3%) on net income. Business income is reported on Schedule C of the 1040 return unless you've registered as a partnership, LLC, or Corporation.
There is no cut and dried rule regarding whether your activity would be viewed by the IRS as a business or not, but generally speaking, they look at how much time you put in, the manner in which you carry out the activity, and your past history of profits and losses. In other words, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck....it's probably a duck. If you run a website or store, have business cards, and turn a monthly profit...chances are your LEGO activity is a business. If you buy and hold some sets to sell in future years...chances are it's an investment. Real Estate investors/flippers must also wrestle with these issues.

Do I really have to report my LEGO income?
One of the most common questions with selling stuff second-hand is "do I have to pay taxes?" Well, the answer is "yes" according to the law. But in reality, many people don't report their second-hand or online sales. My gut tells me that there are plenty of people making a large amount of money that goes unreported. However, if the IRS ever comes a-knocking in the form of an audit, those people will end up owing a lot of money. Similar to the "LEGO S@H Blacklist" conversation, seemingly the best way to stay under their radar is to limit your transactions. Regardless, every LEGO investor should have a plan in mind when starting off as to what type of investor they will be and how to handle their tax responsibilities.
I hope this post has been insightful. I hope to post more blogs about the business side of LEGO - including how to start a LEGO business and different accounting and budgeting tips. I look forward to hearing from anyone who already runs their LEGO activity as a business. /Matt
The talk of a Lego "bubble" has been discussed ad nauseum on this site, yet there is a side I thought about yesterday that hasn't been touched on yet. With thirty one themes (per Lego S@H list), TLG's product line is monstrous so it's plausible to foresee a certain segment of the Lego product line undergo significant devaluation sometime in the not-so-distant future.
To figure out if any sectors are at risk, let's define what a bubble is first. The classic definition of an economic bubble condition is when a product sells for significantly more than its intrinsic value. While this bubble definition is extremely broad, it gives us one nugget to consider: the concept of intrinsic value. Finding a lego brick's intrinsic value is actually quite simple and easily measured: figure out what people pay for a commoditized version of the product. For Lego bricks, Bricklink is a great resource for MOCers to purchase any number of thousands of bricks at competitive prices. These prices should set the basis to measure the intrinsic value of the set. To do this, we add up the price for each piece a set comes with, throw in the instructions, and throw in the box value, and voila - your replacement cost of materials becomes your measure of Intrinsic value". While this doesn't include the value of the time to purchase the pieces, or any number of other hidden costs. we can still use the cost of materials as a proxy for "intrinsic value".

Now that we have a rpugh approximation of the intrinsic value of a set, it can be compared to an average sold price for the set to see if there's a significant discrepancy between the two. In a bubble condition affecting all Lego products, we would expect to see a huge disparity in value between the part-out price and the BP new set value across a majority of themes and models. Alas, when making this comparison for random sets, we see there are literally thousands of sets where the sum of the parts is greater than the value of the model, both retired and unretired. Here are some examples I selected prior to knowing the part out and BP new set values:
Set Name - Part-Out Value - BP New Set Value
Portal of Atlantis - $130.78 - $65.61
Cafe Corner - $874.70 - $978.60
Green Grocer - $642.66 - $674.04
An Unexpected Gathering - $134.77 - $48.44
As I said, there thousands more, so based upon this analysis we can assume that there's no bubble Lego-wide at this point in time. Yet, there is one specific segment of the Lego product line where determining intrinsic value is extremely difficult: minifigures. Assessing the intrinsic value of a minifigure based on the sum of the part values doesn't make sense since the relatively small number of parts renders this analysis meaningless.
When delving deeper into the value of minifigures, it would stand to reason that a fig's value is based upon some combination of desirability and scarcity. Because minifigures are typically collected rather than "consumed" like the majority of Lego sets, it's easy to draw a parallel between minifigure collecting and baseball/beanie baby collecting. Typically, minifigures are worth what collectors will pay to add them to their collections similar to Joe Schmoe who buys a Honus Wagner tobacco card, or Peanut the Royal Blue Elephant. While army MOCers that require a large number of figs to complete their MOC provide an exception to the rule, most minifigs purchased separately are bought as collectibles. After seeing some incredible prices collectors are paying for ComicCon exclusive figures and the elusive Mr. Gold, it appears there's a real possibility of a minifigure bubble.

Honus Wagner - proof that collectible values are based more on scarcity than desirability...
How do we determine if there is a threat of a minifigure bubble? Let's take a look at the values of a cross section of specific minifigures:
Exclusives:
Bizarro (ComicCon 2012) - $237.50
Mr. Gold - $676.51
Non-Exclusives:
CMF Series 1: Zombie - $19.30
CMF Series 1: Forestman - $1.30
Black Falcon - Black Legs with Red Hips, Black Chin-Guard: $6.67
Farmer - Green Overalls, Blue Cap - $2.35
Kai, Kimono - $5.56
Voldemort, White Head - $4.83
This list highlights a significant characteristic of the Lego minifigure market: while Exclusive minifigures typically sport the "insane" values, non-exclusives have a much harder time posting crazy profits that are multiple factors above the value of an average minifig. This actually mirrors the baseball card market - "commons" don't have much value above the average card price, while exclusives, or in this case rare vintage cards, have tremendous value. The baseball card market has already gone through a bubble cycle, and today its characteristics loosely match the minifigure market. In fact, most collectible markets have this same structure - commons sell for a small, "average" price equivalent to the "intrinsic value", while exclusive pieces sell for significantly more. It's only when the value of exclusive figs begin to raise the prices of the commons that a true bubble condition occurs. For Lego minifigs, I don't see this happening anytime soon.  

If demand suddenly craters for Lego products, you will see the entire secondary market suffer (including minifigs and retired sets), yet this would take an unprecedented shock to the system. More likely, a gradual erosion of popularity would occur over time if Lego stopped making sets that are desirable to their core children market. A final look at the baseball card market shows their "exclusives" are as popular as ever: on April 6 of this year, a Honus Wagner T206 sold for $2.1 Million, an unprecedented sum for this card. I would expect Lego minifigs to follow suit.
 

 
As I have said in the last two installments of this, I have really enjoyed doing these as I entertain the possibility of me being creative enough to come up with a good Lego idea. Today I decided to do another movie – in fact one of the most box-office popular movies of all time: independence Day.
The reasons I chose this movie? Well, besides it being very popular and quotable, any movie with aliens and spaceships are going to have tons of good ideas for Lego sets. Everyone loves aliens and spaceships; this is what the whole Star Wars theme is built off of!
So, without further rambling, I give you my sets from the movie Independence Day:
The Welcome Wagon 1

This ship doesn't have a huge part in the movie. If you remember, this was the helicopter that was being recorded and broadcast on live TV from that was covered in lights. They were trying to communicate to the aliens through the use of visual stimulus. That vehicle did not last very long at all as the Aliens abruptly told them "Hi!" back... with an explosion.
So why this helicopter? First of all, it is because it's a really unique helicopter and is a very iconic scene in the movie. This was the first time the aliens really showed any bit of malice at all towards the people of Earth. Secondly, Lego planes and vehicles have been very popular and this one is unique enough that it could be popular as a change of pace from all the others.
In my eyes, it would be a smaller set, around 300 pieces or so. Since Lego has started getting into a few bricks that light up in the Monster Fighters line, this one would utilize that as well. When turned on, the lights would flash from the helicopter so that it could communicate with any aliens in front of it. It would come with two minifigures – The pilot and the welcoming officer with the light controls.
F/A -18 Hornet

This jet is one of the ones that was featured in the beginning of the battle between Earth and the Aliens. Will Smith and his team of fighter pilots were flying these. These jets were very memorable in the movie; they really stood no chance at all against the enemy aircraft and were overrun pretty quickly. If you remember, everyone was pretty much taken down except for Will Smith.
This jet would be a very popular vehicle among people who liked the movie and people who collect Lego vehicles. There are not near as many Jets as airplanes and helicopter's in the Lego line up. As well, the F/A 18 Hornet is a very popular Jet to people who like military aircraft. It is one of my favorites.
To really make this set sell to everyone, it could come with 4 flick missiles for the 4 missiles each of the jets had in the movie. It would also come with an ejection seat along with a parachute that would pop out once the pilot had been ejected. Since only one person was flying these jets in the movie, it would only come with one minifigure, but hey, it would be Will Smith. Who needs more than that?

Alien Fighter Craft

This was an obvious one to have in the lineup. I always loved this vehicle in the movie because, even though it seemed like a take on a flying saucer, it was so much more sophisticated. Because of it's size and aerodynamics, it could seemingly change direction at will and was incredibly fast. Also, who doesn't want to fly a plane that is protected by a seemingly invincible shield (Unless you run into a mountain or Jeff Goldblum gives you a computer virus)?
This ship itself would be the one that was hidden inside Area 51 for the last 20 years. The set would include two flick missiles on the side of it for the Alien's artillery, but they would be made differently as to look more advanced than the Earth's puny current flick missile technology.
The cabin of the aircraft would also open up so that characters could fit inside. The aircraft controls would also be included for great detail inside the ship along with a sign that mistakenly had the up and down direction switched (We need to work on our communication!). This would be a better minifigure set coming with:
Captain Steven Hiller (Will Smith) David Levenson (Jeff Goldblum) Dr. Brackish Okun An Alien Having this set and the Jet set would provide hours of fun and entertainment.
Area 51

Any big time conspiracy theorists out here? This one would really appeal to everyone. The set would really be for use with the above set, but I thought it would be cool to have I be separate since it is a pretty big place not only in the movie, but in historical pop culture.
This set would mainly be an open modular set with a walkway leading into the docking room for the Alien Space craft. Along the way, there would be classified and “sterile” areas for scientists to work on with Computers and lab machines.
The docking area itself would include a landing area for the alien ship so that it could be safely docked inside the area. Behind the docking area there would be double doors so that when the ship wants to leave, they could open allowing the ship to fly out to save our Earth (assuming the alien is not in it).
This set could also include the doctor's surgery area so that they can cut open the alien to see what's inside. This set would include:
Dr. Brackish Okun Two other unlucky surgeons An Alien whose exoskeleton pops open like in the movie 2 other robed scientists who are working around area 51 Hopefully, this set would appeal to all the conspiracy theorists out there as well as people who loved the movie!
Check-Mate

If you watched this movie in theaters when it came out, you knew this was the part you had really been waiting for. As things get more and more nervous, David Levenson has his large countdown clock on his laptop which indicates that something bad will happen when it turns to all zeros, or “check-mate” as he dubs it.
In the movie, though this wasn't the first building to go, this was the one that really sticks out in people's minds because of what the White House symbolizes to America. Also, because the movie somewhat centers around the President (Bill Pullman), this is what was really signifying the attack on him as a leader and his personal hate for the Aliens.
The set would include the large Alien ship along with opening doors for the light-beam attack they use to destroy the cities. Once these doors opened, another light brick would be inserted so that it could be shown down onto any unsuspecting Lego buildings someone decided to destroy. The White House would be a small model, like the current architecture set. In my eyes, it could be engineered so that once put together, something could be pulled or pressed by the person playing with it to make it fall apart (at least into a couple of large pieces to simulate an explosion).
I would also include a stand system with the set so that it could sit upright with the Alien ship hovering over the White House about to open it's major attack for those of us who would want to display it. Maybe even give it a display placard like the UCS Star Wars sets.
Minifigures would include:
The President (Bill Pullman) David Levenson Constance Spano (Margaret Colin) An Alien for good measure The MotherShip

Though the mother-ship wasn't shown a ton during the movie and eventually meets it end by nuclear warfare, it is a really nice looking ship. It is very comparable to some of the larger Star Wars ships like the Super Star Destroyer. Because of this, I think it would make a great 4000 piece set. It could be very detailed and even include a docking area for the smaller versions of the ships in the above sets. It could even be made into more of a play-set like the Death Star 10188.
This set would be really great to have this one as well if you were doing some fleet building with the other alien ships as this was the one that controlled them all. There could be a lot of different alien minifigures that could come with this set as well to really fill out the whole theme as play-sets. Minifigures would include:
David Levenson Captain Stephen Hiller 10 Aliens (or really as many as they will give us! They were starting an invasion, remember?) Queen Alien The Alien Bust

I am not going to lie, I am a sucker for the Lego busts. I love models and things of that nature, so sets that are statuesque really make me want to open my wallet. The Alien form Independence day is very unique. As we heard the doctor say, it has the outer harder biochemical skeleton that protects the soft inner tissue. It also has 8 tentacle/arms protruding from it's body. It honestly kind of reminds me of General Grievous a little bit:

This would be the UCS set that came with a placard in my eyes. It is a very recognizable alien and different form most other sci-fi movies out there (It is somewhat close to Alien, but it is easy to tell the difference between the long double mouth of Alien himself.)
What do you all think? A great theme, or a total dud? They would at least sell one of them, that's for sure!
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
I run into this issue through my Lego collecting and investing constantly. I really love the set I just got and want to open it, but am I making a mistake by popping open that seal and opening all the bags inside? What if it becomes a big time seller and I decide I don't want it anymore, am I going to lose money?
An even tougher conundrum comes up when I get a set for way less than retail. And the set is MISB. I paid the same amount for it that I would for a used set, so does it make any difference if I go ahead and open it?
The answer is “It depends on what you can live with”. Let's examine things a little bit.
First off, let's examine a situation where you just got a brand new set for investing and looking at it, you think it is really cool and you want to build it. What are the issues with doing so:
How well will this set do? - If this set becomes a huge money maker, the gap between the worth of a new and used set gets larger and larger. So one day, could this set be worth double or triple by being in the box? Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper? - If you could, then you would be paying less money to open that set up and the other you would still have to invest in. This way you saved some money now and you still won't regret opening anything. The downside is, you still had to purchase the second set which means more money now. Are you sure how long you are going to keep it? - This is something that really intrigues me. Everyday surfing Ebay I see tons of used sets being sold by people that most likely bought them new and took really good care of them. Why are they selling them? Did they lose interest? Do they need the money? Before you open a set, unfortunately you have to think about things like this because a set is worth more new than used. What if I got the set for the same price as a used set? - You may think there is no downside to going ahead and opening it up to build. If you bought another, it would cost the same amount so technically you aren't out any money. These are really tough questions, much tougher than just ripping the seal off those new sets. But to get the most out of your Lego investment and Lego collection these must be asked. So let's examine each carefully.
How well will this set do?
This is obviously a question that no one can answer correctly right off the bat. But we can definitely take our Lego experiences and use this site to help predict properly what sets will do. Why does this matter? Well, think about someone who bought an Atlantis set and wanted to open it. If they did, they lost absolutely nothing. However, if someone had a UCS Millennium Falcon MISB and opened it, they may have lost $900 if they tried to sell it later.
Let's look at a little bit of data to get a good picture of this. I am going to categorize sets a few different ways just so that we see potential loss based on opening the set. Obviously there are many more investment “profiles” but this gives you a good idea of the loss associated with opening different types of sets.
Spider-Man potential (Solid about 15% CAGR potential)
Taking all the new and used sets in the line and comparing the values, we see that you lose about 65% of the value by opening the sets.
Harry Potter (recent) Line Potential (High potential, over 20% CAGR)
I used the last line of Harry Potter sets which have all seen about 15-30% CAGR. Currently, comparing the new price with the used price, on average you lose about 32% of the set's value by selling it used.
SW UCS potential (Only retired sets) (Legendary potential - Lego investing gold)
Using all the retired UCS sets in the line, you will lose 43% of the value by opening the set.
So what does that tell us? Well it tells us that, depending on the ceiling of the set, by opening it you can lose somewhere from 30-60% of the sets value. I think this goes up as the sets get older. The Spider-man sets are all very old, so finding a new one becomes rarer and rarer. That makes it's price go up while the used stays the same. This is becoming the same with the older UCS SW sets as well like the X-wing and Tie Interceptor which used price was worth less than 50% of the new price. For the recent Harry Potter sets, this wasn't as bad because there are still plenty of these sets around.
Obviously all this is dependent on the price. If you are talking about a $20 set and you think it's 5 year ceiling is $50, then you only stand to lose about $15 if you feel like it will show gain like the Harry Potter sets. At worst, if it lost 65% of it's value, you are looking at a $35 loss. Chances are, the longer you wait, the more money you will be losing.
But, if you get a set that is $300 and you feel its ceiling is $1500, if you lose 30%, that is already a $450 loss. For the 10179 millennium falcon, you have a loss of about $900 dollars. This is definitely way more substantial. Ask someone who paid $500 for an MISB 10179 and sold it as used several years later if they wished they had just left it in the box.
Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper?
This is a very important piece of your decision to open a set. If you paid $100 for a set and open it, but you could have gotten the same set opened for $30 cheaper, then you wasted $30. There are definitely some people who just like opening a fresh, new set, but is it really worth losing the money? Every time I think about opening a set, I start to look around for a used set.
You have to remember, assuming you keep your investing and entertainment/collecting budget separate, the moment you open this set, the money is transferring from your investment budget to your entertainment budget. If you move that over and the set you just opened becomes a huge gainer, that is a lot of money you just lost from your investment capital. However, if you bought a second one for cheaper to open, you just took a slight bit out of your entertainment budget and your investment budget is intact.
This all depends on what you can live with later on as well. Maybe you won't really care that you opened the set and won't think about the money you could have lost. I have that problem; I can't deal with the fact I may have lost money. If you do, you will feel much better about putting together a used set with no box over opening up a brand new one.
Are you sure how long you are going to keep it?
This is something no one really knows but you – and you probably don't even know. All of us have hobbies that stick with us for most of our lives, and we have some that come and go without any warning at all. I know it is a lot easier for me to break those new seals on a set when I am absolutely confident I will never get rid of it. If I know that, the problems with possibly losing money become somewhat moot as I am never going to sell it anyway.
If you seem to be more of a fleeting personality, opening all these sets may become of big regret to you later. I would use caution and your intelligence here more than anything. If you think this set may be worth 100s of dollars later, make sure you can live with selling it and losing that extra money.
What if I got the set for the same price as a used set?
This really becomes tough and I would tell you to, in this case, go with your gut. For me, because I treat my budgets separately, I always buy a used set to put together because I look at everything in investments and return on investment. The new set I have in my hands is worth more than a used set I buy for the same price, even if I spent the same amount on them.
Again, it comes back to what you can live with. Can you live with opening a brand new set and thinking about how much you might have lost by doing it? I can't, which is why I put those inexpensive new sets away and go after used sets.
So all we have talked about is how bad it can be to open a new set. How do you benefit from opening a new set instead of a used set? Well, though these are minor details, they do make a difference:
New sets means new pieces. They will most likely be in better shape and will not have any wear. You do not know what the person before you did with the set they had, whether they say it was a display and smoke-free or not. The stickers haven't been applied. You may get someone's set who didn't really try to apply the stickers correctly. If you have OCD, this is seriously going to bother you. If the used set is assembled, it is hard to immediately tell all the pieces are there. If the set is already assembled, some can't bring themselves to break it down and rebuild it so they lose the building experience. If you open it and take care of everything, it would possibly be in a better “used” shape then if you bought it already used. This could bridge the price gap. This is a lot of stuff to think about and there is no definitive answer. I just wanted to offer some of my thoughts on the subject so that people could get a perspective on the matter, especially if you tend to open a lot of new sets. How do you all feel? Do you open your sets new, or buy all opened sets to build?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
Last day of work tomorrow. Making a Lego gift for a colleague. Lego out on living room floor. Wife is painting nails. I have to do toes because she's 35 weeks pregnant (yeah, I'm committed...). I'm clumsy. I knock the remover over. It pools around some Lego that I left on the floor. The Lego is damaged because Acetone eats Lego.
Moral of the story: Don't spill nail polish remover on your Lego
Lesson of the story: If you do want your Lego to be stuck together (I did the unthinkable and glued together a custom minifigure this evening as part of the gift) then use some Nail Polish Remover or anything with Acetone in it.
 
The 7978 Angler Attack is a small set. The set has 200 pieces, with a retail price of $19.99 USD. This makes the Price Per Piece (PPP) ten cents per piece. Some times the PPP ratio is not accurate, so here is the Price Per Gram (PPG) ratio. The set has a weight of 0.32 kg, which is 320 grams. Since there is 200 pieces in the set, the PPG ratio is $0.0625 USD per gram.
The set has two minifigures (Jeff Fisher and Barracuda Guardian), one of which is a rare minifigure, Jeff Fisher. The set also included a camera, a trident, a deep sea jet with a harpoon and grabbing claws, and the angler fish with moving fins and tail.
The set was released in late 2010/early 2011 and the set was retired in late 2011. The set was available on the primary market for about a year. Some stores may have had the set longer due to higher prices which would have made it available longer in the primary market, but not for long.
The 7978 Angler Attack is the best set for investing from the Atlantis theme. Although the Atlantis theme has overall Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -2.67%, this set has a better CAGR. The set has a CAGR of 16.61%. That is 19.28% above the overall CAGR for the Atlantis theme. Let's look at some simple charts showing the sold listings and the sales trends for the new sets over the past year. Sold Listings:
June 2012: 6 July 2012: 13 August 2012: 6 September 2012: 9 October 2012: 3 November 2012: 5 December 2012: 11 January 2013: 6 February 2013: 5 March 2013: 7 April 2013: 4 May 2013: 5 Over the past year, there has been eighty (80) 7978 Angler Attack sets sold. This means the average sets sold new per month is about seven (7) sets. All this data shows that there is interest in the set, thus making it a potential investment. What makes it a worthy investment is if people are willing to pay more for the same set. Here is another chart chowing the sales trend for the new sets sold over the past years.
Sales Trend:
June 2012: $22.35 USD July 2012: $20.68 USD August 2012: $21.56 USD September 2012: $23.39 USD October 2012: $23.41 USD November 2012: $24.12 USD December 2012: $25.35 USD January 2013: $25.53 USD February 2013: $25.06 USD March 2013: $25.60 USD April 2013: $27.88 USD May 2013: $27.18 USD Over the past year, the set has increased in $4.83 USD in value. Over this year the Return On Investment (ROI) is 24.16% for this year. The ROI for the set on its retail value is 35.97%. These are both very good ROI. From this chart, the set has been growing in value as time goes on. The average increase per month for this set is forty cents ($0.40 USD). I can see this set going in the price range of $30-$40 USD in the future.
My recommendation is to buy the set, but I would buy the set lower than what it is valued at. Even though the set is a good investment, you should always be prepared for the value to go down. Hopefully that will not happen, but it is always possible. The set has a good CAGR that is above the average CAGR for the Atlantis theme. The set also has a high ROI for this year at nearly 25%. From all this information, I would buy this set myself to invest in.
Thanks for reading!
 
The Atlantis theme has twenty-three sets. These twenty-three sets were released over a period of two years: 2010-2011. Currently the Atlantis theme is retired. Out of the twenty-three sets, there are eight that have a positive CAGR. These eight sets will be ranked and explained.
1. 7978 Angler Attack
The 7978 Angler Attack has the best CAGR out of all the Atlantis sets, which is 16.61%. I consider that a decent CAGR. The set is down 2.51% from the last month. The set has a retail price of $19.99 USD. Since the set has 200 pieces, the Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio for the set is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fourteen cents ($0.14 USD). The set has increased four cents per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2011: $19.99 USD 2012: $23.31 USD 2013: $27.18 USD 2014: $31.70 USD 2015: $36.96 USD This set is a great investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively similar, after four to five years the set would have doubled its retail value.
2. 8056 Monster Crab Clash
The 8056 Monster Crab Clash has the second best CAGR of the Atlantis theme. The CAGR is 12.23%. I consider that a average CAGR. The set is down 2.47% from the last month. The set has a retail price of $6.99 USD. Since the set has sixty-eight (68) pieces, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents over three years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2010: $6.99 USD 2011: $7.84 USD 2012: $8.80 USD 2013: $9.88 USD 2014: $11.09 USD 2015: $12.45 USD This set is another great investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively the same, the set would have doubled it retail price after six years in 2016.
3. 8058 Guardian of the Deep
The 8058 Guardian of the Deep has a very close CAGR to the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. It is only a quarter of a percent away. The CAGR for the set is 12.00%. The set has not changing in value over the past month. The set has a retail price of $14.99 USD. Since the set has 144 pieces, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents over three years. That is the exact same as the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2010: $14.99 USD 2011: $16.79 USD 2012: $18.80 USD 2013: $21.06 USD 2014: $23.59 USD 2015: $26.42 USD This set is just like the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. The set is a great investment. If the CAGR stay the same or relatively the same, the set would double its retail value after six years in 2016.
4. 7976 Ocean Speeder
The 7976 Ocean Speeder is a decent investment from the Atlantis theme. The set has a CAGR of 9.20%. The set is down 0.83% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $4.99 USD. Since the set has fifty-four pieces, the PPP ratio is nine cents ($0.09 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of eleven cents ($0.11 USD) per piece. The set has increased two cents per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2011: $4.99 USD 2012: $5.45 USD 2013: $5.95 USD 2014: $6.50 USD 2015: $7.10 USD This set is a good investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively the same, the set will have increased 50% over the retail price over four years in 2015.
5. 8073 Manta Warrior
The 8073 Manta Warrior is a decent/bad investment. The set only has a CAGR of 5.69%. The set is down 2.08% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $3.99 USD. Since the set has thirteen pieces, the PPP ratio is thirty-one cents ($0.31 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of thirty-six cents ($0.36 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents per piece over three years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2010: $3.99 USD 2011: $4.21 USD 2012: $4.46 USD 2013: $4.71 USD 2014: $4.97 USD 2015: $5.26 USD This set is a bad/decent investment. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, the set would take four years to grow 25% in value over the retail price. That would mean it took four years to make $1 USD per set.
6. 8072 Sea Jet
The 8072 Sea Jet is a decent/bad investment. The set only has a CAGR of 5.69%, just like the 8073 Manta Warrior. The set is up 1.29% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $3.99 USD, just like the 8073 Manta Warrior. Since the set has twenty-three (23) pieces, the PPP ratio is seventeen cents ($0.17 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of twenty cents ($0.20 USD) per piece. The set has increased three cents per piece over three years. Her is a simple chart showing the growth of the set.
2010: $3.99 USD 2011: $4.21 USD 2012: $4.46 USD 2013: $4.71 USD 2014: $4.97 USD 2015: $5.26 USD This set is the exact same as the 8073 Manta Warrior. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, it is low and it only profitable if purchased in high numbers. It would take four years to make $1 USD per set.
7. 7985 City of Atlantis
The 7985 City of Atlantis is a bad investment. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, it is very low and not very profitable. The set has a CAGR of 3.10%. The set is up 2.23% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $69.99 USD. Since there are 686 pieces in the set, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of eleven cents ($0.11 USD) per piece. The set has increased one cent per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2011: $69.99 USD 2012: $72.16 USD 2013: $74.40 USD 2014: $76.70 USD 2015: $79.08 USD This set is a bad investment. The set has increased $4 USD over two years. That is not a lot of money made. Even if you bought many sets, the set would still not be very profitable. Some people are fooled by this because they think a positive CAGR means a good positive return. This set says otherwise.
8. 7977 Seabed Strider
The 7977 seabed Strider is a bad investment. The set has a CAGR of 0.75%. That is less than a percent. That is not a lot of growth at all, but there is a very tiny amount of growth. The set has a retail price of $9.99 USD. Since there are 105 pieces in the set, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio that is still ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set has a current value of $10.14 USD. The set has only increased fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) in value over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:
2011: $9.99 USD 2012: $10.06 USD 2013: $10.14 USD 2014: $10.22 USD 2015: $10.29 USD Even though this set has a positive CAGR, it is very very very low, and it does not make a difference when investing. The set would take thirteen years to gain 10% or $1 USD over the retail price at this CAGR. This is not my investment choice.
These eight sets are the sets that have a positive CAGR from the Atlantis theme. All the set have positive CAGR, I only consider the top four sets worthy for investing. They have a high CAGR, which would make nice returns and profits unlike the other four sets that would take a long time to get a decent profit out of them. Hopefully, all these sets will continue to have these CAGR and even better ones to help in out investing
Thanks for reading!
 
One of the reasons I decided to do the first set of planet articles was because I saw the lineup for the planet series 4 and was memorized at how awesome they were. I really felt they had some seriously higher investment value than the first three series, so I wrote down a note to myself to do a blog article about it. While doing some research for the article, I was looking through some data on BrickPicker and figured I could not do an article about the new planet series 4 sets without mentioning the three I wrote about in the first article and how I thought they could be sleeper investments.
Now that I have finished that article, I move on to the part I am really excited about: Planet Series 4. So first, lets go through what we have seen in the first series that is notable:
Naboo Starfighter and Naboo Sebullas Podracer and Tatooine Interceptor and Death Star X-wing and Yavin 4 Twin-pod Cloud Car and Bespin AT-ST and Endor Jedi Starfighter and Kamino Republic assault ship and Corusant Tie Bomber and Asteroid Field. Looking above, the two best and most iconic ships above are the X-wing and the AT-ST. Of the rest, there are some decent ships, but nothing crazy popular. Adding to this, the X-Wing has somewhere near 10,000 other Lego renditions of it. The Death Star is pretty cool, but I don't think there is enough size and detail there to make it a record breaking set. The tie bomber is one of my favorite ships, but not everyone shares that opinion.
Let's compare them to the Planet Series 4:
Snowspeeder and Hoth B-Wing Starfighter and Endor Tantive 4 and Alderaan To me there is no comparison. This line of planet sets include the ships that I was really waiting for. These ships are not only iconic, but are very detailed. I think these ships have had a lot more success in the past as investments in their other forms as well. Don't believe me? All 3 of them have been UCS sets, with two of them being some of the best gaining UCS sets out there(We will have to wait and see with the B-wing). With these coming out soon, will this change the tune of the investors in regards to the Planet Series line?
75009 Snowspeeder and Hoth

My Analysis: The Hoth battle scene is one of the best battle scenes in the Star Wars movies. The AT-AT's walking around, the snowspeeders trying to take down the legs of the AT-ATs while the machines move towards Echo Base. This was even further boosted by the Nintendo 64 Star Wars games released in the early 90s that had several missions centered around Hoth itself and the battle surrounding it.
To me, this makes this set a great one to have. Yes, Hoth sets have been done before, but no sets currently have the actual planet in it (though it is only a plastic ball). Also, for about 60 pieces, the snowspeeder's detail is incredible. If you see an enlarged picture of it, its hard to tell it only includes that many pieces. The snowspeeder pilot is an exclusive remake as well, which will make it more collectible.
Another factor that makes this set a big winner is the fact that all three of the items are special: The planet is an iconic Star Wars planet, the ship is a very iconic ship (Check the UCS versions current market price!), and the minifigure is an exclusive redesign.
Let's look at a little bit of data for the previous snowspeeder sets:
4500 Rebel Snow Speeder – 10.44% CAGR, more than 2X retail currently. 10129 UCS Rebel Snowspeeder – 21.37% CAGR, almost 7 times retail value 7130 SnowSpeeder – 5.37% CAGR (Been around since 1999) – More than double retail value. The only downsides with this set (besides wide availability) is the fact that it is a relatively low piece count for 9.99 at just 69. Honestly though, I think the planet and stand really make up for it because it appeals to those looking to play with it and those looking to display it.
I would wait it out a little before buying a bunch for retail, but if you can get a sale or clearance deal with these in it down to $8, I think its a no-brainer. I think this is going to see gains like the battle packs and be worth about $25 after the first two years or so! Children are going to absolutely love these and I think that people are going to be drawn towards series 4 especially.
75010 B-Wing Starfighter and Endor

My Analysis: I really love this set, mostly because I really love the B-wing. Unfortunately, I think this is the weakest of the three sets in the series, though it still might not be bad to pick up. The B-wing itself is a very popular vehicle, but I think that the current weird situation with the B-Wing UCS set may cause us a few problems. Because we haven't had a set for the snowspeeder or the Tantive IV for a few years, they may be a little “refreshed” in buyers minds making them want to buy them. The B-wing could be a little overshadowed by the bigger one. Of course, maybe that works the other way and people who can't get the UCS set will buy this very small one. I am not sure i can place exactly how it will matter..
Either way, I think this set is very cool. There are a lot of Endor sets coming out right now and I think that all of these sets are going to cause people to want to collect all the Endor sets. This, combined with people wanting to collect all of the B-wings, and collecting all of the planet series, will make sure this set is still a decent winner. Nothing great, but solid. Ignore it at your own risk.
Let's take a look at how some of the other retired B-wing sets have done:
6208 B-wing Fighter – 16.58% CAGR at about 3.5 times retail. 7180 B-wing at Rebel Control – 5.08% CAGR (Been around 13 years). Around 2 times retail. One x-factor here does intrigue me. If you look at the B-wing, there are really no small sets. There are no B-wing Polybags and there are no Brickmaster B-wings or bigger sets that include a small B-wing. I think that could definitely work in this set's favor because the people who typically like the smaller sets will target this one as more unique. There is no polybag to compete with it.
My final thought on price would be to look for it at around $7. I think it might be a slight reach at $8, but it could be a big time sleeper because of the lack of another small similar set. Plus remember, B-wings are definitely a possibility in the new movies!
75011 Tantive IV and Alderaan

My Analysis: I think this one is really awesome. I love it when Lego takes a ship with huge intricate pieces and makes a small version of it, still with a great attention to detail. This one just looks really impressive. And it has 102 pieces which makes it one of the biggest of the planet series and definitely a great price per piece value at under $.10.
The ship itself is a really popular ship and has only be done twice. Yes, just like the B-wing, it has a big push for it in that there have been no polybags or battle packs, or anything of that size made for it. But past that, there hasn't been a mid range set ever done for this one either. Of the two made, one is a UCS set, and one is an exclusive play-set. Both had extremely high original price-tags and are way more now. To me, that is going to have a really big impact on this set. I really think there are a lot of people out there that like this ship, but don't have either of the bigger sets.
Alderaan itself is no terrible place to have as well. Think about all the kids that will have the Death Star by picking up the Tie Interceptor Planet series set. None of them will be able to wait to blow up Alderaan with it! The minifigure, while not exclusive, is only in the advent calender and the other Tantive sets. So there is a good chance that if this Tantive model is the first one some people will have, then this will also be the first of that minifigure they will get.
Let's look at the two Tantive sets and how they have done:
10198 Tantive IV – 9.59% CAGR sitting at almost 50% over retail. 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner – 11.97% CAGR sitting at almost 4 times retail. Obviously these two ships have done fairly well. With all of this, I think this set will be the best of the planet series and one that every investor should actually look at, even if at retail. It is done really well, has a lot of pieces, and it is the best looking of the series to me. I think if you even get these at $9 in a sale, they will be a big steal. I think in a couple of years, they will be $30 each. And again, they are so small they take nothing to store!
Final Analysis: While none of the planet series seem to be good enough to shatter any records like 9465 The Zombies, I really think this line has a lot of sleeper potential. As I made clear in the earlier article, these sets will not be fully targeted by investors, but I think this series especially will be really popular among all types of builders and collectors. All three of these are very collectible ships, with two of them being the only small set made of that specific ship. Also, you can't just get one and not have all three. They are a series!
What will really decide Planet Series 4's fate will be the length of time they are on shelves. Currently they are about to come out and a series 5 has not been mentioned. Because of this, they could maybe stick around a little longer than the other ones have. While I think they are decent investments, I wouldn't go out the first day they come out and buy 100s of them. I could be totally wrong about how popular they are. And if they sit on shelves for over a year, they will have a lot of time to go down in price and lose some of the nice upside.
The fact is, however, that this is the most impressive full line of the series by far. Generally the rule of thumb for a series in a theme has been “the biggest set always does well”. Perhaps this will extend to this series in that “the best line of the series always does well”. As of now, my prediction is, it will.
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
This entry of the BrickIndex Spotlight will focus its attention in a rather small set from one of the most popular themes of the past few years: The Forbidden Forest from Harry Potter.
The Forbidden Forest was a set that originally retailed for $ 12 in the USA, and for that price you got 4 cool minifigs (Voldemort, Hagrid, Harry and Narcissa Malfoy) as well as 64 pieces. Of these minifigures, the only one that is really exclusive (but not really expensive) is Narcissa Malfoy. Despite the fact the minifigures are not really that unique, the set was still a pretty good bang for your buck when all things are considered.
This set was retired around the end of last year, although you could still find it at some stores like Barnes and Noble. As far as its investment performance is concerned, the set has already more than doubled in value in a little over a 6 months, something that is not really surprising with sets within this price range. Let's now take a look at some of the trends this set has been displaying in over the past year or so.


The number of sets sold showcases the regular pattern that most sets follow, somewhat stable during the year with the huge spike in December. The really interesting data comes from the Values table, where you can clearly see the upward trend this set has been experience ever since it went EOL later 2012. It is pretty normal for sets to explode in value during the first few months after they are retired, and even after a couple of months of no growth this particular one is heading up once again.
This is a neat set that has already produced some pretty great percentage results for those that were wise enough to pick several while they were still available, but what about those of us who missed on this set, could it still have some more room to grow and make some decent profits?. Let's talk about that next.
The set itself is really not that interesting as it is basically just a LEGO built tree with some accessories, so that is certainly not going to be too appealing in the secondary market. The real stars here are the 4 minifigs that even if common (except Narcissa) are popular enough to carry this set into the $35 to $40 range in the medium to long term. What I find particularly interesting about this little set that I believe a lot of people will find appealing is that it gives the buyer access to some of the popular minifigs (Hagrid and Voldemort) that are only included in sets that at this point are much more expensive than this one. Someone with limited funds not willing to purchase figs individually will find this a nice alternative.
To conclude, I would definitely recommend investors to buy this set, but only if they are willing and able to buy several copies and wait a at least a year before getting rid of them. These small sets are only worth it to me if you are able to move a relatively large volume, as actual dollar profits tend to be quite small. If you already own the set, I would recommend holding onto it AT LEAST until this Holiday season, but a more desirable scenario would actually be selling them by the end of 2014 when most of the quick sellers have exited the market.
Recommendation: Hold/Buy
 
Even if you are not a big Star Wars Lego fan, you know the planet series as they are EVERYWHERE in stores. These are cool, cheap little sets that cost 9.99 that include a minifigure, about 60-100 pieces to make a Star Wars ship, and a hollow planet that has attachments to either sit or hang from the ceiling. As mentioned before, these are everywhere and many have made it pretty far into clearance cycles; I have seen several sets of these that were 50% off.
What will these do in the after market though? Are they worth picking up, especially at such very low prices?
Well there are a couple of issues before we really get into this. I decided to make a pros and cons list (if you read my blog you know this is how I do everything). So here we go:
Pros
Cheap sets with a good number of pieces and minifigures along with a planet that is exclusive; no other sets really have things like this. Very collectable since there are 4 series now that all share the same attributes. If you get a few of them, you will want them all (I have all the released ones, and 2 of several). Can be found on clearance fairly easily. Have had very short runs in stores although still widely available on line. If retired soon their limited time in stores could be a plus. Very popular among children and collectors. Small so very easy to store. Cons
Because of the planet, these are hard to ship in something small enough so you are paying a decent amount for shipping. Have been very widely sold and bought meaning there will be more around and less people that don't have any. Not a whole lot of exclusive pieces and minis. Besides the planet, nothing special. Battlepacks offer more minifigures usually which gives people more playability and a little more value for normally the same price. So as you can see from my list above, I am a little hesitant about these selling well int he aftermarket. The cons above definitely outweigh the pros a bit in my opinion. And with the popularity of some other sets and themes and the questions these cons raise, it seems there are some better investments out there.
However, there are some things I think could be an x-factor to make a few of these sleeper sets. First off, they are not going to be targeted by investors except for those who buy them at clearance prices. Second, SW battlepacks have done pretty well with most of them coming close to doubling in value (There are several other articles that have touched on this so I will spare you more of the same). Also, if you check out a few of these sets I am about to discuss, you will see they have relatively held their values on Ebay meaning chances are they aren't going down now that they are gone. Plus, new ones seem to keep coming out keeping popularity around and driving the old ones off shelves.
This combined with a few positives from above like the limited runs and the clearance prices make me feel a few of these are worth taking a look at. So here are my picks for the planet series. Note: I still would only recommend bulk buying these for under 7-8 dollars each. This way you can cover yourself if I turn out to be wrong. Make your own decisions, this is just what I am looking at and banking on.
Lego 9676 Tie Interceptor and Death Star

My Analysis: I think this is just an awesome little set for 9.99 and it includes a Death Star. You absolutely cannot beat that for a small set. The minifigure is the same one that appears in many of the tie sets, so it is nothing amazing. However, I think that the ship looks really great and does the Tie Interceptor pretty good justice for that few pieces.
The two things that really make me like this set for an investment is the Death Star and the tie interceptor itself. The Death Star is great in this set because there are only two other sets with a Death Star, and they are both UCS and cost hundreds of dollars. So for the smaller collector, this is a set worth buying just to get the Death Star.
The Tie Interceptor itself helps as well. It is a very popular ship as a sleeker version of the Tie Fighter itself. Looking back at the Tie Interceptor's past, 6306, 6965 (Polybag), and 7181 (UCS) all have over 10% CAGR. That's nothing amazing, but substantial growth for sets that all have been around for 7-8 years. The length of time since the last Tie Interceptor helps as well.
Currently this set is already over 12% CAGR sitting around $11 on Ebay. I would definitely jump on these if I found a bunch for <$7.
9679 AT-ST and Endor

My Analysis: Everyone loves the AT-ST. This set is really cool because it is always fun to have a smaller model of a very complex and detailed vehicle. Everyone loves the BrickMaster AT-AT for the same reason. Endor is pretty popular as well, but is not exclusive as it will be in one of the series 4 sets as a planet as well.
There is another plus to this set in that the AT-ST pilot redesign is exclusive to this set. That is going to always add a plus to the set as long as they don't use this in any future sets (which I would doubt as we have a lot of other AT-ST sets).
Another upside is that, at least in my area, these weren't near as available as most of the other planet sets. I think this is because this one was very sought after by children and therefor was always sold out. I know I had to scrounge through tons of targets and Walmarts just to find one.
We do have two pretty direct comparisons to this set in the 20054 polybag AT-ST and the 4486 AT-ST& snowspeeder that both included a smaller version of the AT-ST. 30054 is a cool little set, but not as well built as the planet one (I find mine falls apart if touched). It has still had a 27.34% CAGR. 4486 has been around for 10 years and still has a 15.83% CAGR which is really great for a set that old.
Using all this data, I think this set should be grabbed around $6-7. Put it in a box somewhere and forget about it for a few years and you will pocket 10 bucks per set someday. Not bad for something you can store so easily. Its sitting at 4% CAGR right now without being officially retired so chances are at a discounted price, you wont lose money.
75008 Tie Bomber and Asteroid Field

My Analysis: This set is one of my favorites, mostly because I love the Tie Bomber ship itself and didn't have one until this one came out. I immediately went out to buy one when it hit the shelves. The asteroid field is nothing that great at all, but it does fit well for those that have seen the movie and those that have played the old Tie Fighter and X-Wing games as well as the Nintendo 64 games.
One plus here I see is this one has been very hard to find and the Planet 3 series has somewhat been overshadowed because of the lack of interest in the other two ships in the series. Along with this, the anticipation of the Planet series 4 sets is high as they blow the others out of the water in terms of being iconic parts of the movie. This means this one could really be a big sleeper.
The ship itself is really great for 50 pieces and is very detailed. It's a solid ship and is very popular. This one is going to benefit from the fact that there has only been one other Tie Bomber in the Star Wars Lego series – 4479. 4479 was made 10 years ago and still has a 12.28% CAGR and is sitting at over 3 times retail value. Because there are no other tie bombers, and no others that a lot of people will ever see on shelves, I think this one will become very sought after, especially if these are shown again in the new movies. (I am discounting the one that you could build from pieces of the 4 small sets in the mid 2000s, just because it is harder to count that with it being a sort of exclusive).
I think if you can get these for $8, I would buy a ton of them. I think in 2-3 years these could be at around $25. This would be worth it, especially if you have space problems as these will fit pretty much anywhere.
Final Analysis: I don't want to put a thought out there that these sets are going to be amazing and going to break records because I don't think that. I don't think you should actively seek these out as an investment either. However, I think there are three ways to get these that really make sense:
Pick them up on clearance: I think we have already gone through this a little, but if you see a bunch of these on clearance anywhere for the prices I have indicated, I would definitely jump. They are definitely worth the very small risk at that price. Best Offer – I have touched on this in several other articles, but there are definitely some listings out there of 20 of these sets where you may be able to put in offers to get them down to a pretty good price for an investment. Online BOGO and other sale types: Whenever people look online for sales, they always look at the big and popular sets, not at the smaller ones. Sometimes you can really miss a great deal. For instance, if you get $20 off a hundred dollars, then you can get some of the sets above for just $8 a piece. What do you all think? Do you see any winners in these or the other Planet Series sets?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
People have been facinated by the ocean numerous times over the centuries. There have been different books written about it. My personal favorite book about the ocean is Atlantis. The book talks about people who are trying to find the lost city. In 2010, the Lego Company released the Atlantis theme. The theme is based on minifigures trying to find the lost city of Atlantis.
The theme has had twenty-three sets released into the market and there was a Lego movie aired on Cartoon Network using the Atlantis sets. The theme only lasted for two years. It began it 2010 and ended in 2011. At the most, the sets are about two to three years old, which is not a lot for investments. Each of the twenty-three sets will be explained and analyzed for their investment potential. Here are the sets:
7976 Ocean Speeder
Description: (All Descriptions are from Lego.com)
Dive deeper in the Ocean Speeder to seize the treasure!
Fearless Lance Spears is diving for the treasures of Atlantis on his Ocean Speeder as a dangerous sea snake spots him! Can he escape the slippery serpent and reach the treasure?
Includes Lance Spears minifigure with diving gear Grab with the Ocean Speeders arms, move it’s propellers and shoot with the harpoon! Ocean Speeder measures 3” (7cm) wide Features sea snake, treasure and rare gold elements Statistics:
Number of pieces: 54 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $4.99 USD Year released: 2011 Current value: $5.95 USD Current CAGR: 9.20% Analysis: The Ocean Speeder has a good CAGR after two years. Over the two years, the set has increased in value by ninty-six cents ($0.96 USD) from the retail price. Some of you may think that this is not a lot, but for a small set like this, it is a lot percentage wise, but with money, it is not a significant increase. To make a decent profit on this set, a person must have many of these sets to sell.
7977 Seabed Strider
Description:
Defeat the evil Hammerhead Guardian to claim the treasure!
Walking through the ruins of the lost city of Atlantis on his powerful Seabed Strider, valiant diver Axel Storm discovers the precious golden shield. He transforms his craft into a sleek submarine to return the treasure to the surface, but can he first defeat the trident-carrying Hammerhead Guardian?
Includes 2 minifigures: Hammerhead Guardian and diver with swim fins, scuba helmet and tank 2 in 1 build: Seabed Strider transforms into sleek submarine! Sieze the treasure with the Seabed Strider’s grabbers! Features sea snake, harpoon, trident, treasure and rare gold elements Spin the turbines! Grab treasure with Seabed Strider claws! Seabed Strider measures 3” (7cm) tall Statistics:
Number of pieces: 105 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $9.99 USD Year released: 2011 Current value: $10.14 USD Current CAGR: 0.75% Analysis: The Seabed Strider does not have a good CAGR after two years. The CAGR is less than 1%. Over two years the set has gained fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) in value. That is not much for percentage and money. This is not the best investment if you want to make some big money fast. It is a slow growing set.
7978 Angler Attack
Descripition:
Outsmart the Angler Fish and evil guardian to reach the treasure!
Expert diver Dr. Fisher catches sight of an ancient helmet lying among the ruins of LEGO® Atlantis. Just then, the evil Barracuda and giant Angler Fish, with it’s razor-sharp teeth, swim out from the murky depths. Can Dr. Fisher outsmart the deadly creatures to claim the golden helmet and take a photo of the rare fish?
Includes 2 minifigures: diver with camera and Barracuda guardian with trident Minifigure accessories include diver’s helmet, tank and swim fins Deep Sea Jet features harpoon, grabbing claws Angler Fish measures 7” (17cm) wide, 5” (12cm) long Angler Fish features moving fins and tail! Includes treasure chest with jewels, golden helmet and special gold elements Snap the jaws of the Angler Fish! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 200 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $19.99 USD Year released: 2011 Current value: $27.18 USD Current CAGR: 16.61% Analysis: The Angler Attack set has a great CAGR for two years. Over that period of time, the set has gained $7.19 USD in value. That is a decent percentage from the retail price. This set is a great investment. To make a lot of money off this set, a person would have to have a lot of these sets.
7984 Deep Sea Raider
Description:
Drill a path to the riches!
Recruited to dig and drill through the dangerous ruins, excavation expert Dr. Brains from the LEGO® Power Miners is trying to get to the treasure! Open the back compartment and release the mini sub for tight squeezes! Can he outwit the angry hammerhead guardian to retrieve the treasure and legendary body armor? Set includes 2 minifigures and mini sub.
Includes 2 minifigures: diver and hammerhead guardian Deep Sea Raider features opening cockpit, grabber and functioning drill Open the back compartment to reveal the mini sub! Features flexible falling pillar, lobster, treasure chest with jewels and body armor Deep Sea Raider measures 6” wide (15cm) and 8” long (20cm) Mini sub measures over 2” wide (5cm) and 2” long (5cm) Statistics:
Number of pieces: 265 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $29.99 USD Year released: 2011 Current value: $25.53 USD Current CAGR: -7.73% Analysis: The Deep Sea Raider has a bad CAGR after two years. Over that period of time, the set has lost $4.46 USD in value. This set is not a set to be used for investing. The set may have been good for investing if, the set was purchased on a really good sale. Even if that happened, the set may still have not been profitable.
7985 City of Atlantis
Description:
Free the golden king in the City of Atlantis!
At long last, the lost City of Atlantis has been discovered! Help Captain Ace Speedman and Professor Sam Rhodes release the golden king from the temple ruins! Avoid the booby traps and falling pillar as you battle the guardians. Whatever you do, stay out of the dungeon and away from the claws of the giant crab. Set includes 6 minifigures and Deep Sea Sub with flick missiles.
Includes 6 minifigures: giant crab, lobster guardian, barracuda guardian, golden king and 2 divers Features Deep Sea Sub with flick missiles and claws Swing the axe and drop the pillars! Unlock the golden king with the treasure key lock function! City of Atlantis measures 9” (22cm) wide, 9 (22cm) tall and 12” (30cm) long Deep Sea Sub measures 5” (12cm) wide, and 5” (12cm) long Statistics:
Number of pieces: 686 Number of minifiugres: 5 Retail price: $69.99 USD Year released: 2011 Current value: $74.40 USD Current CAGR: 3.10% Analysis: The City of Atlantis is one of the larger sets in the Atlantis theme. There is a good amount of minifigures in the set. The CAGR for this set is decent. Over the two years, I expected the set to have a bigger value and CAGR. The set has only gained $4.41 USD in value over two years. The set is profitable, but for large profits off this set, there must be a large amount of sets sold.
20013 Neptune Microsub
Statistics:
Number of pieces: 63 Number of minifigures: 0 Retail price: N/A Year released: 2010 Current value: $7.32 USD Current CAGR: N/A Analysis: The 20013 Neptune Microsub is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set comes in a polybag. The set has a great value for a mini set. This set would be a great investment if it is at the right price.
30040 Octopus
Statistics:
Number of pieces: 42 Number of minifigures: 0 Retail pirce: N/A Year released: 2010 Current value: $5.93 USD Current CAGR: N/A Analysis: The 30040 Octopus is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set comes in a poly bag. The set has a good value for a mini set. The set is a good investment if it is at the right price.
30041 Piranha
Statistics:
Number of pieces: 49 Number of minifigures: 0 Retail pirce: N/A Year released: 2010 Current value: $9.49 USD Current CAGR: N/A Analysis: The 30041Pirahna is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set has a great value for being a mini set. The set comes in a polybag. The set is a great investment if it is at the right price.
30042 Mini Sub
Statistics:
Number of pieces: 42 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: N/A Year released: 2010 Current value: $3.06 USD Current CAGR: N/A Analysis: The 30042 Mini Sub is one of four mini sets from the Atlantis theme. The set is the only mini set to have a minifigure. The set comes in a polybag. The set is a decent investment if it is at the right price.
8056 Monster Crab Clash
Description:
Beware the monster crab’s claws!
On a dangerous deep-sea mission to recover the orange Atlantis treasure key from the murky depths of the ocean, the heroic diver comes face-to-face with the treasure’s mighty guardian: a giant crab with powerful crushing claws!
Set includes 1 heroic diver minifigure! Collectable orange Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all! Features monster crab with snapping claws and moveable legs! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 68 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $6.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $9.88 USD Current CAGR: 12.23% Analysis: The 8056 Monster Crab Clash has a great CAGR after three years. The set has increased in value by $2.89 USD over the past three years. The set is a great investment. The set is profitable, but for big profits, a lot of sets must be sold.
8057 Wreck Raider
Description:
Capture the blue treasure key from the Shark Warrior!
While exploring the ocean aboard his high-speed scooter sub, the deep-sea diver has found one of the treasure keys leading to the sunken city of Atlantis! But will the Wreck Raider’s twin turbines and flick-launching harpoons be enough to defeat the trident-wielding Shark Warrior and capture the blue key? Includes Shark Warrior with trident and deep-sea diver minifigures.
Set includes Shark Warrior minifigure and diver minifigure. Collectable blue Atlantis treasure key included! Measures over 3" (8cm) long! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 64 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $9.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $9.50 USD Current CAGR: -1.66% Analysis: The 8057 Wreck Raider has a bad CAGR. It is negative. The set has dropped in value by forty-four cents ($0.44 USD) over three years. That is not a lot, but it still contributes to the negative CAGR. The set is not the best investment from all the Atlantis sets.
8058 Guardian of the Deep
Description:
This treasure guardian packs a bite!
In his search for the red Atlantis treasure key, the deep-sea diver has encountered one of the deadliest guardian creatures of all: an enormous black shark covered in Atlantean markings! Will the diver’s harpoon and swimming skills be enough to escape the shark’s snapping jaws and thrashing tail with the precious key, and its clue to the lost city’s location?
The heroic diver minifigure has an awesome harpoon! Red Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all! Fearsome shark guardian has biting jaws, moving tail and poseable head! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 144 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $14.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $21.06 USD Current CAGR: 12.00% Analysis: The 8058 Guardian of the Deep set has a great CAGR. The set has increased $6.07 USD over the past three years. That is a good investment. For big profits, there would have to be many sets sold.
8059 Seabed Scavenger
Description:
Explore the sea floor, but watch out for danger!
Leaving no coral-covered rock unturned, the 3-wheeled Seabed Scavenger rolls along the ocean floor in search of clues to the location of Atlantis. Suddenly, a glint of light – it’s the fabled green treasure key, guarded by a fierce Manta Warrior! Even with the deep-sea vehicle’s grab claw, spinning saw and flick-firing torpedoes, this is going to be one tough battle! Includes Manta Warrior with trident and deep-sea diver minifigures.
Includes Manta Warrior minifigure and 1 diver minifigure. Two flick firing torpedos! Spinning saw weapon and grab claw!! Collectable green treasure key! Collect each one! Measures 10" (25cm) long! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 119 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $14.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $14.60 USD Current CAGR: -0.87% Analysis: The 8059 Seabed Scavenger has a bad CAGR. Although the set has a bad CAGR, the set has only lost thirty-nine cents ($0.39 USD) over three years. That is very little for three years. The set is a decent investment if the set was purchased on a sale, but not at retail.
8060 Typhoon Turbo Sub
Description:
The Typhoon Turbo Sub dives into action!
Deep at the bottom of the ocean, the yellow Atlantis Treasure Key is guarded by a ferocious Shark Warrior. Send the Typhoon Turbo Sub into battle – when the fight gets tough, its powerful high-speed turbine engines flip around to reveal a key-grabbing claw and hidden torpedo launcher! It’s time to discover the lost secrets of Atlantis!
Set includes 2 minifigures: 1 heroic diver and 1 Shark Warrior! Yellow Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all! Flip over the rotating sub propellers! Sub is armed with torpedo shooter and flick fire missiles! Claw grabs and holds the treasure key! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 197 Number of minifigures: 2 Retail price: $24.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $15.47 USD Current CAGR: -14.77% Analysis: The 8060 Typhoon Turbo Sub has a really bad value and CAGR after three years. The set has decreased in value by $9.52 USD. For investing, that is a lot of money lost for a single set. This set is not the best investment set from the Atlantis theme.
8061 Gateway of the Squid
Description:
Unlock the Gateway of the Squid…if you dare!
The Deep Salvage Crew divers have found their first big clue to the location of Atlantis: an ancient underwater temple with gates that automatically open at the turn of a treasure key! Inside are traps, treasures and mighty guardians, including an octopus prison cage, a fearsome Squid Warrior, and a monstrous giant squid with flailing tentacles and massive snapping jaws. Can the divers reach the golden treasure chest at the heart of the temple, or will they be captured for daring to trespass in this deep-sea domain? Includes Squid Warrior with trident and 2 deep-sea diver minifigures.
Includes Squid Warrior minifigure and 2 diver minifigures! Collectable blue treasure key included; collect them all! Trap door opens to capture the divers! Open the temple gates with blue treasure key! Measures 15" (38cm) long! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 354 Number of minifigures: 3 Retail price: $39.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $20.49 USD Current CAGR: -19.98% Analysis: The 8061 Gateway of the Squid is one of the worst investing sets from the Atlantis theme. The set has lost $19.50 USD in value. That is about half the retail price. With this, the CAGR for the set is -19.98%, which is not good for investing. The set might be profitable if it was purchased at a heavy discount like 60% off or higher.
8072 Sea Jet
Description:
Hunt for undersea treasure!
Search out Atlantis treasure keys, guardian sea creatures and sunken treasure with the sleek and speedy Sea Jet! Includes deep-sea diver minifigure.
Includes Sea Jet and deep-sea diver minifigure! Jet features control flaps for quick evasive tactics! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 23 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $3.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $4.71 USD Current CAGR: 5.69% Analysis: The 8072 Sea Jet is a great investment. The set has a good CAGR. The set has gained seventy-two cents ($0.72 USD) in value over the past three years. Some might think that it is not a lot money wise, but it is a lot percentage wise. The set has almost gained 25% over its retail price.
8073 Manta Warrior
Description:
Beware this undersea warrior of Atlantis!
Treasure-seekers beware – lurking behind this seaweed-covered rock is a fearsome Manta Warrior, prepared to battle anyone who dares to search for the long-lost sunken city of Atlantis! Includes Manta Warrior with trident.
Set includes Manta Warrior minifigure and seaweed-covered rock! Manta Warrior is armed with a fierce trident! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 13 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $3.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $4.71 USD Current CAGR: 5.69% Analysis: The 8073 Manta Warrior is a great mini set investment. The set has a CAGR of 5.69%. That is a good CAGR. The set has increased in value by seventy-two cents ($0.72 USD). That is almost 25% of its retail price. It is a good set to invest in.
8075 Neptune Carrier
Description:
Search for Atlantis aboard the ultimate battle submarine!
The Deep Salvage Crew divers have discovered the green Atlantis treasure key, but when the fierce Manta Warrior and its trained battle stingray attack, will they be able to keep it in their search for the sunken city? Launch your defense with the armored Neptune Carrier submarine, with quad flick-launching torpedoes, a scout mini-sub and a quick-deploying seabed rover to even the odds on the ocean floor! Includes Manta Warrior with trident and 3 deep-sea diver minifigures.
Set includes Carrier sub, scout mini-sub and seabed rover! Includes Manta warrior minifigure plus 3 diver minifigures! Collectable green Atlantis treasure key included! Collect them all! Fire the four flick-launching torpedoes! Mini sub scouts the ocean floor! Roving vehicle scours the seabed! Measures 12" (30cm) long! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 476 Number of minifigures: 4 Retail price: $59.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $42.17 USD Current CAGR: -11.09% Analysis: The 8075 Neptune Carrier is a bad investment. The set has a CAGR of -11.09%. That is not good. The set has lost $17.82 USD in value over the past three years. That is almost 33% of its value lost. From an investment standpoint that is one of the worst investments from the Atlantis theme.
8076 Deep Sea Striker
Description:
Divers beware of the scorpion’s stinging tail!
On a mission to recover a precious green Atlantis treasure key, The Deep Sea Salvage Crew diver rides the speedy Sea Scooter along the bottom of the ocean! When he encounters the key’s powerful scorpion guardian, can he avoid the scorpion’s vicious tail, snapping claws and biting jaws and recover the key?
Includes 1 diver minifigure with sea scooter Features collectable green Atlantis treasure key Sea scooter equipped with dual harpoons and treasure key grab claw Guardian scorpion measures over 9” (23cm) long Statistics:
Number of pieces: 260 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $19.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $14.61 USD Current CAGR: -9.92% Analysis: The 8076 Deep Sea Striker is not one of the best investment choices from the Atlantis theme. The set has a value of $14.61. That means the set has decreased by $5.38 USD in value. This means the set has a CAGR of -9.92%. This is one of the worst investments from the Atlantis theme.
8077 Atlantis Exploration HQ
Description:
Launch the search for Atlantis from the diver’s headquarters!
From the safety of the exploration HQ, the divers launch missions in search of Atlantis and search for the yellow Atlantis treasure key. Transform the base into the mobile command sub to take on the Manta Warrior!
Includes 3 minifigures: 2 divers and 1 Manta Warrior Transforms into command submarine with flick-firing torpedos, map room, laboratory and repair bay Includes collectable yellow Atlantis treasure key Measures 13” (34cm) wide , over 6” (15cm) tall Statistcis:
Number of pieces: 473 Number of minifigures: 3 Retail price: $49.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $40.47 USD Current CAGR: -6.80% Analysis: The 8077 Atlantis Exploration HQ is a bad investment. The set has a current value of $40.47 USD. That means that the set has lost $9.52 USD. This means the CAGR for the set is -6.8%. That is a bad CAGR. The set is a bad investment from the Atlantis theme, but there are other sets that are worse.
8078 Portal of Atlantis
Description:
The portal to the lost city of Atlantis has been discovered!
Getting through it will be the diver’s greatest challenge yet! The divers must get past hidden traps, shark guardian statues that come alive, Squid and Shark Warriors, and the Portal Emperor before unlocking the portal with the five Atlantis treasure keys.
Includes 7 minifigures: 3 divers, 1 Portal Emperor, 1 Squid Warrior, 1 Shark Warrior, 1 skeleton Features all 5 Atlantis treasure keys -- green, blue, yellow, red and orange Divers must beware of the hidden traps! Turn a treasure key into the keystone to open the portal to Atlantis! Shark castle measures 18" (46cm) wide and over 12” (32cm) tall Statistics:
Number of pieces: 1,007 Number of minifigures: 7 Retail price $99.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $65.61 USD Current CAGR: -13.10% Analysis: The 8078 Portal of Atlantis is a great set to have but it is a horrible investment. The set has a current value of $65.61 USD. This means the set has lost $34.38 USD in value over three years. This means the set has a CAGR of -13.10%. Even if the set was on sale, it would not be a good investment. There would have to be a good sale for this set to be profitable and even then there would not be much profit.
8079 Shadow Snapper
Description:
Keep an eye on the shadows when this Atlantis guardian is around!
Covered in armored spikes and bristling with razor-sharp claws and teeth, the ferocious, amphibious Shadow Snapper is a deep-sea diver’s worst nightmare! A super-fast combat sub with dual flick-launching torpedoes is the Deep Salvage Crew diver’s only chance to get past this lurking leviathan and retrieve the yellow Atlantis treasure key…but will even this high-speed sub be quick enough for him to escape with the prize? Includes deep-sea diver minifigure.
Includes Shadow Snapper, combat sub and diver minifigure! Yellow Atlantis treasure key included! Collect them all! Fire the sub's dual flick-launching torpedoes! Super-fast sub's propeller really spins! Snapper measures 8" (20cm) long! Sub measures 5" (12cm) long! Statistics:
Number of pieces: 246 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $29.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $23.70 USD Current CAGR: -7.55% Analysis: The 8079 Shadow Snapper is another Atlantis set that has a negative CAGR. Although it is not as bad as some of the other sets, it is still bad for investing. The set has lost $6.29 USD in value over three years, making the CAGR -7.55%. The set would have been profitable if the set was on sale, but the profit from the set would be very low.
8080 Undersea Explorer
Description:
Battle the guardian serpent with the transforming undersea explorer!
Searching the darkest depths of the ocean floor for the red Atlantis treasure key, the undersea explorer engages the huge guardian sea serpent! While in rover configuration, the undersea explorer doesn't stand a chance...but transforming into a giant robot, with torpedo launcher and grappling arm, the undersea explorer is more than ready to defend itself! Includes 1 heroic diver minifigure Features red Atlantis treasure key Undersea explorer transforms from seabed rover into robot equipped with torpedo launcher and grapple arm Sea serpent measures 13" (33cm) long Explorer measures over 5" (14cm) long in rover configuration, over 7" (19cm) tall in robot configuration Statistics:
Number of pieces: 364 Number of minifigures: 1 Retail price: $39.99 USD Year released: 2010 Current value: $33.27 USD Current CAGR: -5.95% Analysis: The 8080 Undersea Explorer is yet another set that has a negative CAGR. Although the set has lost $6.72 USD in value, it is still an unworthy investment. The set would only be profitable if the set was on sale.
There are many investment winners and losers from the Atlantis theme. While most sets have lost value over time, some sets have gained value. Those sets are the investment winners. Althougth some of the sets did not grow much, I still consider them a good investment. Other sets grew a lot, some of which having high CAGR. If you are investing in the Atlantis theme, pick your sets wisely and they will become deep sea treasure. If not, they will become a sinking investment.
Thanks for reading!
 
So after doing the first article about my thoughts on a new theme from TLG, I was really excited to try another one. I really like models and things of that nature and I would love for TLG to get into more themes that I am really interested in (right now the only two themes that really fully appeal to me are LOTR and Star Wars). So, I decided to use my own idea for this next one instead of one mentioned by another member, although I was assume many others have probably thought of this. This is: Theme Parks!
I grew up loving the game Roller Coaster Tycoon. It was so fun to be able to put together giant roller coasters and see if the game's customers liked them (most of the time mine were way too big). This is a big plus for the series because this game proved that pretty much everyone wanted to be a roller coaster or theme park designer (This game was one of the most popular games of the late 90s and early 2000s). On top of that, everyone loves to go to the theme parks, even if you like roller coasters or not. TLG also already has a precedent for sets like this in 10196 The Grand Carousel which, if you haven't noticed, is worth 5 times retail 4 years later and is sitting at an insane 49.6% CAGR (In Fact, that is better than any UCS Star Wars set) and the 4957 ferris wheel which has a respectable 21.46% CAGR.
So we have established this line would be really popular, but what sets would it have? Well, I will use the new Lego Delorian to take you into the future to see:
Bumper Cars

When I think of theme parks, I always think of the biggest rides and in doing this article, I was having trouble coming up with smaller sets to fill out the line (One of the reasons I am not TLG). This would be a very popular set because this is one of the most popular rides among kids.
I see this like a Ninjago Spinners set. The set would have a small area for the bumper cars and then two cars with a minifigure each. These would have small motors in them, as well as random driving mechanisms making them bump into each other. Maybe they could even have it so there was a timer and you had to wind them up and then let them go. They would bump each other until one stopped and that made the other the winner!
This set might not be the investors dream, but would be really popular among children if they had it at a $30 price point or so. Who knows, some of the spinners sets have done really well, and the Chime Speedorz may follow that. This could be a big time winner if it were made.
Minifigures:
Boy bumper car driver Girl bumper car driver Scrambler

I am including this set because it was one of my favorite rides growing up and would work really well as a small playset. If you aren't familiar with this ride, the middle of it spins, while the separate sections of people spin as well. This is not fast, mind you, but in a way that the spinning compliments each other. You feel you are thrown outward, pulled inward, and then thrown outward again. It's very fun, as long as you don't sit on the outside with someone 100 lbs heavier than you on the inside.
The set would include the machine itself as well as the fence around it with the line area for potential riders to stand. It would include 6 minifigures, two per section of the ride (3 scramblers). There would also be a minifigure theme park ride operator as well.
The ride itself could be turned on or manually turned itself so that it would work just as the original ride.
Minifigures:
6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. 1 theme park operator Ship Swing

This is another smaller scale set and a ride that is a staple of every amusement park I think I ever gone to. There are tons of different variations of this ride including everything from Aladdin to Space Ships. My favorite though are the old looking boats and pirate ships.
One, we know ships have done really well as Legos looking at the Pirates of the Carribean theme and the Pirates theme. This one could be a smaller version made in that image with a motor on the suspension system to make it swing when you turn on the ride itself. Minifigures:
Theme Park ride operator 4 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. Drop Tower

I assume you are familiar with one of these: at a lot of parks they have been called the “Big shot” or “Drop Zone”, or “Free Fall”. If you got o a lot of theme parks and like thrill rides, you know this is one of the most popular rides. Honestly most of the time I try to avoid it until very late when I am at a theme park because the line is so long. Being a big time favorite among theme park visitors, of course it would make a great Lego set.
In my eyes, it would include the base of the ride with a theme park worker minifigure and his lever that controls the ride. I would make it so that he could actually switch the lever to make it move.
The ride itself would include a fairly tall tower – I am thinking about two feet tall – with 4 seats on it for the Minifigure customers. This would include moving harnesses that would come down over the minifigures' shoulders when pressed down to keep them in. When the lever is thrown, the ride itself would climb up the tower to the top. Once it got to the top, it would quickly, but safely, drop to the bottom for play-ability sake. This set would be awesome for any kid to play with and look really good for anyone trying to display theme park sets together.
Minifigures:
1 theme park operator 4 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. Scenic Train Ride

To me, this is always the ride in the theme parks I don't really care that much about because it's boring to me to just ride around and see stuff. Evidently, the thought of some kind of physical harm becoming me is more what I look for in a ride.
However, to normal people, these are widely popular. A lot of kids love train rides and they are very tame rides for parents. Plus, there is no age limit, so everyone rides them! And, I feel like Lego has done trains before and it has worked out fairly well... hmmm.
I am thinking that this set could be a train with two cars. I prefer old-timey steam engines as I think they look really cool. This would also have a system for real smoke to come out of the steam engine and it would have a little horn that could be pulled. It would also be motorized so it go around the Lego track.
The Lego track would be very large so that you could put other rides inside of it for those of us who would collect the whole theme. Also, the train set would come with a few varying exhibits maybe a small zoo area or maybe some smaller versions of theme park rides they don't do a full Lego set of.
Minifigures:
Train Conductor Train guide – with a microphone to sit at the front of the trian. 6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. Minifigure animals for the zoo area. Chair Lift

Another staple for every amusement park out there is the chair lift. This set, while not necessarily being a big time thrill ride, would be one that would appeal to many people just like the Grand Carousel did. First off, it would include a large beautiful mountain side for the lift to bring people up to.
It would include the lift itself as well that would, of course, be motorized so that you could lift minifigures from the bottom of the mountain all the way to the top.
On the top of the of the mountain, there would be a few small modular shops for the minifigures to go into. We all know that we love getting to the top of a mountain after a long lift ride and seeing a bunch of candy shops and souvenir shops to go to. This one would include an ice cream shop, a candy shop, and a souvenir shop. These would all be small but still in the modular theme like the larger sets that are very popular. It should appeal to people who aren't really into theme park rides themselves.
Minifigures:
Theme Park ride operator 6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. Candy shop cashier. Ice Cream shop cashier Souvenir shop cashier. Yes this would be a very big set, but can you really sit here and say you don't think it would be a good investment?
Roller Coaster

You knew this was coming. Now, Lego would not be the first. Kinects has had some roller coasters int heir line for quite a while and they have been fairly popular. However, Kinects is not half the company Lego is.
Lego would absolutely make the best model roller coaster ever seen. It could have a loop or two as well as several hills and a barrel roll. Of course. it would also have a chain lift so that it could lift the cars up to the top of the first hill and then of course it would be designed so that the Lego coaster cars would carry their momentum through the whole set.
It would also come with a photo booth at the end of the last big hill that would light up when it sensed the car under it so that it seemed like the minifigures pictures were being taken.
The loading section would be raised from the ground with an exit and entrance path that included ramps down to the ground. Best case scenario, the coaster would be built on a Lego ground that included Trees and Shrubs to really fill out the landscape and make it look like an actual Theme Park roller coaster.
Minifigures:
2 theme park ride operators. 8 customer minifigures of varying gender, age. So what makes the theme viable? Well, besides the fact that theme parks are really popular and what we had discussed before with the Lego ferris wheel and grand carousel, these sets have to be done with great detail. They need to capture every feeling of the theme park experience. This could be one of those themes as well that just keeps on going and going as there are 1000s of rides that could be don. Kids and collectors could keep making their theme park bigger and bigger.
The one downside is that there aren't a lot of different minifigures, with a lot of them being customers. So Lego would need to do like the minifigure series and make each customer different in each set. They could also do some special poly-bags that included street performers or other types of theme park workers like maintenance workers. Either way, in my book, this theme would be a total homerun!
What types of theme park sets would you like to see? Do you agree that this would be a popular theme?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
A while back I posted a thread in the forums asking what everyone would like to see next as a theme from Lego (The thread is here: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/4105-whats-the-next-theme-you-would-like-to-see/page-4?hl=next%20theme ). One of our the BP members, El Guapo posted an awesome idea here in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail”. I want to make sure before I do this article everyone understands that he came up with the idea and it was a great one (Hey, maybe if Lego does it, they will give him a commission). He came up with a few good set ideas, but I had some other good ones dealing with this theme possibility as this movie is one of my favorites of all time. I asked him if he minded me expanding on his idea and he was on board - make sure everyone visits his profile and 1-up's him for this great idea. I wanted to start out with this one in a series of blogs I will do showing new theme possibilities and what I would do with them. This will be something fun to break up the monotony of “buy this set, sell this set”, etc.
First off, if you have seen Monty Python and the Holy Grail, you know that this movie is has tons of iconic scenes. So I had to choose a few that would really stand out to people that had seen the movie, but offered play-ability to those who haven't.
She Turned Me Into a Newt!

This would be the iconic scene when all of the townsmen bring a young woman that they dressed up as a witch to Sir Bedevere so that he can decide whether she needs to be burned or not. This would include the following minfigures:
Sir Bedever: His faceplate will just not quite stay up. 5 Townspeople including the characters shown in the scene who yell things like “churches” and “Very small rocks”. The Witch: She would be an exclusive minifigure and would have a wart on her face, a carrot on her nose and a witch hat. This set would also come with the platform area for Bedevere and the Witch to stand on with the townspeople below. Along with this, there would be an old time weighing scale with a duck that happens to weigh just as much as the witch minfigure.
It's Just a Flesh Wound: The Black Night Bust

Lego hasn't done an insane amount of these busts, but the ones they have done have been really great. I am mostly referring to the Star Wars sets of Yoda and Darth Maul. The Black Night is an iconic character in the movie though he was only in the movie for about 10 minutes and managed to lose about 20 pints of blood. He is a perfect character to do a bust of, becuase his limbless torso is a very memorable part of the movie.
Now, Lego is a toy company so we would have to make this bust less violent than the actual movie (although even that was pretty fake). Leave out the blood and gore from the arms and legs, I think this would look absolutely awesome. I know I would pay big money for a bust of the Black Night's torso. This would definitely be a display only set so I think a UCS placard like int eh SW theme could really be nice next to this.
The Trojan...Rabbit?

This would be a smaller set, bigger than SW battle packs, but not much over $20. It would be a minifigure-centric set. This would include all of the main characters as well as the Wooden and somewhat flimsy Rabbit that was somehow constructed in the forest with no tools at all while semi-French people watched on.
Minifigures included:
King Arthur Sir Bedevere the Wise Sir Lancelot the Brave Sir Robin the Not-Wuite-So-Brave-As-Sir-Lancelot Sir Galahad the Pure This would be a big time set for playability and to easily collect all the core minifigures. The Rabbit would have wheels so that it could roll and the characters would fit inside, though they forget to do that. This would fit right along with the castle sets coming up.
Camelot! It's Only a Model

This would be a very special set and out of Lego's normal set type. First off, you would have the Legos to build the front of Camelot's Castle, but that's it. It would literally be only a model. With this set you would get the following minfigures:
Dennis: The minstrel that carries King Arthur's Coconuts. Of course he would have coconuts in his hands as well as the back pack. The prisoner: He would hand from the Camelot wall. Along with this set you would also get a roundtable. The best part of the set – built in batteries and music. Once turned on, the model would play “Knight's of the Round Table”.
This would be a huge set for playability with the song playing and the prisoner, and would also be an awesome set for display-ability. “It's Only a Model” is one of my favorite quotable lines in the movie so I would love to have a set I could randomly point at and say “Camelot! (It's only a model)”.
The Bridge of Death

This could really be an awesome large scale set and, if done right, could really attract anyone who loves natural architecture whether they like the movie or not. It would include the bridge as well as both of the rock mountains around it supporting it. I am thinking somewhere near 1000 pieces. This would also include the walkway down the sides of the mountain to the bridge as well.
The minifigures would be the best part of this set, coming with:
King Arthur Sir Lancelot the Brave Sir Robin the Not-Wuite-So-Brave-As-Sir-Lancelot Sir Galahad the Pure The Old Man: The bridge keeper I would also suggest that Lego build in a catapult type system so that when the characters answered the old man incorrectly, they could be easily tossed into the river. If done correctly, this could be a major seller in the line.
Also, though I don't know how possible this is, I would love if this set had a small little system in the river area under the bridge that would shoot up smoke. I am not a science major (more into electronics), but I think it would be awesome if you could make this smoke while playing with it to add to the creepiness.
Look at the bones!

El Guapo mentioned this one in his post in the original thread and, while I was trying to avoid overlap, I have way too many ideas for this set. First off, it would include a giant cave and rocky area in front of the cave that would include tons of minifigure bones lying around to display the carnage that this vicious rabbit has been a part of.
Another section would be a rock line on the opposite side for all of the minifigures to hide from the rabbit. The set would include the following minifigures:
The soldiers: This would be several matching soldiers that will fall victim to the cute, but vicious Rabbit and his nasty, sharp, pointy teeth. They would have heads that could quickly pop off – maybe some kind of system on the minifigure that popped them off very easily (If Lego will allow that). Brother Maynard: He would have a robe on, a giant book from which he could read from and also have a large box which included the Holy Hand Grenade. Tim the Enchanter: This would be Tim with his very vibrant outfit. Rabbit : This would be a cute little minifigure bunny, but would come with a second rabbit head that would include those nasty, sharp, pointy teeth we have been talking about. I think this set would have the most play-ability out of all of them. I am 26 and I would totally have no shame in playing with this set. This could be a special exclusive to Lego.com and it would be an investor's dream with the several exclusive minifigures and the rabbit itself.
The knights who say...Icky-Icky-Ptang-Zoop-Boing (ni)

This is one of my all time favorite comedy movie scenes. The first time I watched this movie, I was rolling during this scene. They don't make comedy like this anymore. This set would be a forest scene with a floor for all the minifigures to sit on. It would come with the following minifigures:
The Three Knights King Arthur Sir Bedevere Roger the Shrubber Old Crone: This is the lady they say “Ni” to Yes I know, a lot of minifigures. But that's not all! This set would also have a tree in the set dubbed “The tallest tree in the forest”. It would also come with a Lego herring and two shrubberies that were at different heights to create a two-level effect with a little path running down the middle.
Play-ability - off the charts! Who wont have hours of fun imitating the voices of the nights and making the minifigures say the word "it" to defeat the nights. You wouldn't have to say "Ni!" to anyone to get them to buy this set.
Ni!
Castle Aaarggh

This is the biggest set in the bunch and a “Hard to Find”. It would include a giant castle as well as a large moat around it. This would also include a large boat for the minifigures to cross the treacherous moat. The minfigures included:
Three of the FrenchMen King Arthur Sir Bedevere 10 soldiers to represent Arthur's army This set would also include several traps on the top of the castle, including a catapult for the animals to be thrown at the oncoming soldiers as well as different items that can be dropped down from the top of the castle over top the castle doors.
 I think these are really fun to do and I encourage everyone who regularly write blogs to come up with a theme and do some possible sets. I really enjoyed writing this article. Anything I missed here?
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
There are somethings that you just can't get enough of, but at the same time, you have to know when to stop. When I first started LEGO investing, I had a problem with this. I had almost never seen LEGO's on clearance at Target or Walmart or the LEGO store, and rarely set "foot" in Amazon. Once my eyes were opened to the sheer number of discounts and deals, I simply couldn't get enough!! Eventually, I figure out that I was obviously buying more than was within reason and had to return some things, and make some very difficult decisions.
Today, after being an investor for about 6 months, I've grown to know my local population of 2.5 million people, and what clearance percentages will last, and which ones won't; what prices locals pass, and what they grab.
I'm more than sure that for everyone, these numbers are different, but this is what I have come to realize at my local Targets.
1. Percentage - One of the fastest things that I discovered was that clearances 15% off aren't all that great, and to be honest, for a lot of sets, 30% doesn't cut it. We have a halting 9.25% sales tax, so for something to be worth it and a no brainer, most locals just skip the 30%, and wait for 60%, or even 70%!
2. Knowing Your Local Population - You know the saying "Keep your friends close, and your enemies even closer"? Well that is pure wisdom right here. When buying LEGO, your neighbors and former preschool teacher are your top competition. You can get to know your local population by being at your local LEGO retail stores pretty often, and go to fairly busy locations. Though people often stay less in an aisle if you are there, especially kids, there's still plenty of time to observe in an uncreepy, subtle way. Just pretend that you are engrossed in reading the package description of your can of baked beans, and you'll be fine! What I found was that parents that walk to the toy section of Target literally just walk by. They may walk up to a particular product and even say out loud "Ooh, little Timmy's been wanting this.", and promptly put it back on the shelf. Poor little Timmy. It takes some killer clearance to make these stubborn parents want to grab something from a store, usually upwards of 50%.
3. Dollar Value - Sure, an item can be 50% off, but if it costs $75 at half price, most parents skip over. I've grown to love parents because of this reason. More often than not, they skip to those tiny $9 Creator sets, rather than going to a larger set like Mines of Moria or Goblin King Battle. So, what one of the strategies that I have adapted is waiting longer for large sets to go on steeper clearance. Though I have found clearance Battle Packs and $15-$30 sets scarce, there is almost always an abundance of sets upwards of $45, which is why I can wait for certain deals, no matter how desperate I might be.
Now in general terms, 50% off is a "go get'em" situation, but how about 30%? 15%?
5% - Patience, young Padawan. Unless this set rarely is discounted, like a modular, even 5% isn't that great.
10% - Decent, but not great. Assuming that you aren't charged tax for this, 10% is better for a less discounted set.
15% - This is typically a sign of a large clearance event, in my experiences. 15% could be better, and I would play the wait game with it.
25% - Now we're getting serious! This is probably a pretty good deal, and at this point, you are seeing more definite signs of something bigger. If it's the last on the shelves, I would pounce, but if there are more than 3, then I would wait.
30% - Typically, this is the starting point of Target mark downs, which typically happen on Thursdays. 30% is nearly an auto buy, unless you have a large set that has an MSRP of $70+, and there are more than 3 copies on the shelves.
50% - Though it might seem like a jump from 30-50, there is rarely anything in between. 50% is just about as good as you should hope for on small sets, as they will get scooped up really fast. I'd also pounce on large sets at this point, and as many as possible, in general, if you have the capital to do so.
70%-99% - GO! This is as good as you will get...ever. I've never heard of a store giving out free LEGO on a regular set, nor someone paying you to take them off their hands. MegaBloks or Kre-O, I understand. Not LEGO.
Though extremely painful, the wait game might end up being your best investment friend. Learn who will pounce and when they do so. This helps to maximize your discount, but still get the set in the end.
 
Arbitrage is a term used to describe the practice of using price variances between different markets in order to make a profit. This may mean different geographic markets such as countries, regions, states, or even cities and towns. The term can also cover selling in different time periods if you are buying in today’s market and holding to sell in a future market.
In the modern financial world using arbitrage is a common tool and it is what helps keep most international markets and prices stable. Currency exchanges and commodity prices all incorporate people using arbitrage methods to stabilise and set final prices. Even a small difference in prices or interest rates (interest rates are a form of price – the price of money) between two markets will be exploited by traders. As the commodity, stock, or currency is bought in the cheaper market and sold in the higher priced market, the cheaper market price begins to rise on that demand and the selling markets price falls to compensate for the extra supply, bringing prices into equilibrium. With something like currency this is almost instant, with computerised algorithms and automated buying and selling process taking advantage of miniscule differences and evening them out in microseconds, but it still makes profits.
With Lego many different markets exist and are ripe for arbitrage opportunities. A simple example that many of us investors do already without even referring to it as arbitrage is buying a set in a department store at a great discount and selling it straight away for a profit on Ebay or another selling market – arbitrage in action.
Now that Brickpicker has opened up the data that is collected for each lego set to include international Ebay sites in the UK, Germany, and Australia in addition to the original US information, we now have the ability to possibly identify arbitrage opportunities between these different markets. That is something I’d like to examine in this blog article. Can we analyse some of those differences and find opportunities to buy in one market and sell immediately in another? I think we can.
Opportunities exist between all 4 of the markets we have data available, but I’m going to focus on providing examples from just two – The US to UK pairing. Data has only been available for the non US sales for two months and it can be a little patchy for some sets so looking at Aus data is a little less reliable whereas the Euro (german) data has decent sales volume it would seem but we don’t have as many Brickpicker members from Germany. The UK seems to have the best possibility for discussion. I’m also only going to provide a few examples of arbitraging opportunities, I’m not going to list a whole swag of them or research them in depth for you. If you want to act on this information then I’d encourage you to do your own research first and to seek out other opportunities.
US to UK – Top 5 Price Variances

The table above shows the top 5 sets I could find in terms of percentage difference between the US buying price and the selling price in the UK once you convert the pound to the US$ at the current exchange rate.
I think you’ll be impressed and a little surprised by the potential profit margins those percentage differences represent! Now the obvious caution here is that some of the sets have low volumes in one or both markets, making their current market prices a little less reliable. That is why you must do your own homework when looking at these potential opportunities. But what it does show is that there are some possibilities that warrant a serious investigation.
A UK based seller can use these opportunities to import buy from US Ebay and sell locally on UK Ebay. There is also the opportunity for US based sellers to potentially sell on UK Ebay for better returns (I think this is possible to set up, but not 100% sure on the workings of Ebay account rules etc).
UK to US (the other way) – Top 5 Price Variances
How about looking at arbitrage in the other direction? High US prices and low UK ones? A US based seller can use these opportunities to import buy from UK Ebay and sell locally on US Ebay. There is also the opportunity for UK based sellers to potentially sell on US Ebay for better returns than on their local market. Lets look at the top 5 sets:

Now that’s some even more impressive possible gross profit percentages! Again the caveat is low volumes on most of those sets playing with the volatile market prices. But is that the case for all of them? How about every other set?
Well what I can also share with you is that on the US to UK price variance (the first table) I found at least 60 sets that had a percentage variance of 50% or higher. Sixty! Now within that there is sure to be opportunities. Hint: 8099, 10231, 4183, just a few to whet your appetite. Going back the other way I found 60 sets with over a 100% price variation! Plus another 100 that were between 50% and 100%. There is sure to be some gems amongst them. Hint: 8190, 7997, 10178.
Shipping and Fees
The straight price differences you see between sets and the ones I’ve presented here represent the gross profit potentially available. What they don’t account for is something I’m sure many of you will have been thinking about in your head since reading the opening title of this blog. Selling fees and more importantly shipping costs!
Firstly, selling fees are generally 10-12% of the sale price on Ebay from the Ebay fees and Paypal transaction fees. These fees need to be considered if you are buying in one market and intending to sell in another. However they don’t need to be a factor in the decision to sell in a different market if you already own the set. If you already own it and intend on selling it in your local Ebay marketplace then you will already be factoring in the fees to your pricing and decision to sell. Deciding to sell in the US or UK incurs no additional fee (that I can see – but I’m not an expert on Ebay fee structures).
There may also be some small currency conversion fees charged by your bank or financial institution. I get charged 1.25% by my bank. You can account for that by adding it in to the currency conversion calculator rather than taking the exact listed rate. Shipping costs. Now this is the major hurdle to overcome. It is where your own research must come to the fore in determining a worthwhile inter-country arbitrage opportunity.
Shipping costs will be the killer of many good looking deals. Finding the cheapest (whilst still reliable) method of shipping is a must. Polybags and smaller sets will obviously be the best potential sets here as the shipping costs should be minimised.
Conclusions
Arbitrage opportunities exist right now. They just need to be ferreted out and seized upon. I’m sure there are many traders doing this right now and perhaps even some of you Brickpicker members. The excellent new data we have available on this website has made finding opportunities easier and I‘d encourage those of you with the time available to hunt down the profitable trading ones after accounting for fees and shipping. Over time the data will get more reliable and I’ll be interested to see if some of the margins between markets begin to narrow as people look to shift sets from cheap regions to expensive ones.
 
In my last post I briefly mentioned that buying Lego for someone else could be quite a good ‘investment’ as they may possibly reciprocate. Here’s unorthodox Lego ‘investment’ tip no. 2: complain to Lego.
When my local Lego store opened (I say store, I mean shop, because I’m British) I went along pretty sharpish. I was desperate to bulk out my budding Lego collection and headed straight for the Pick A Brick wall. I was informed by a very friendly member of staff that they’d run out of large PAB cups and that instead they’d let me fill the one cup they had left and then put it in a carrier bag to take home and that they’d give me a pound of for the inconvenience. When I paid I asked them if I could have the usual money off sticker and they were delighted to oblige, sticking it on the bag and assuring me it would get me the money off a cup on my next visit.
Months later and my brother (16) and sister (26) were headed for the city. I gave them the bag and asked them to fill a PAB cup on my behalf (after giving them many tips on how to get the most for the money). The story from now on becomes second-hand:
They filled the cup, took it to the counter and presented the voucher. The shop assistant would not allow it. The duty manager told them they wouldn’t accept it. My sister was told they’d never run out of large PAB cups and that they’d never have given the sticker out. The Lego store staff talked and laughed behind the backs of my family. The positive Lego brand ethos was shattered as it was insinuated that my brother and sister were liars.
Eventually, my sister summoned up all her anger (bearing in mind that she had just been through the toughest time in her life – see also the last post) and delivered a blistering repost (no further details) to which the Lego store staff conceded and gave them the money off.
My other sister (who was also there) later emailed Lego from the website detailing the incident. Lego responded in less than 24 hours and offered her the choice of 200 VIP points (£10) or ‘some bricks’. In consultation with me she went for the VIP points which were credited to my account.
I now have ten pounds worth of free money solely for the purposes of ‘investing’ in Lego. Cashback.
Disclaimer: I am in no way advocating fraudulent complaints to the Lego group. Do not go out of your way to engineer a situation about which you could complain. Do not deliberately break your Lego so you can write a narky email. Do not write narky emails – write polite and eloquent ones. Do not screw our beloved Lego group over, even if one or two of their employees sometimes can be a bit daft. If you are a Lego employee, remember ‘the customer is always right’ and that Lego means ‘play well’. If you are a Lego customer who receives great service, don’t hesitate to feed this back to TLG either.
 

Configure browser push notifications
Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.