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REMAIN or LEAVE...What will happen to the non-US LEGO investor?


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31 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I think the fairest thing would be to call a General Election and make the EU issue the key point with each party drawing a clear line whether they are pro or contra and committing to invoke the article to leave after that if that is what people still want. After all, the actual referendum so far seems only to have muddied the waters and been a vote of confidence in the PM.

The Tories shouldn´t lose with the way Labour are right now.

 

 

No party can afford to be remain right now.  Whilst the vote went 52/48 based on a single vote system, if it had been run on the standard general election first past the post system, it would have come in 68% leave. Both parties would have to campaign on leave to prevent the other gaining any advantage.  Only the liberal democrats are going heavy remain to try and define the party on a new ground. 
 

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Just now, Will 4 said:

Well it has not descended in to insults yet

No it has not, kind of nice really. Whether you are pro or against leaving the EU, rational discussions are possible.

Worst we've seen today is calling Johnson and Farage rats.

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18 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Deutsche Bank and Santander have failed US stress tests and considering Santander is one of the biggest banking groups in the world (and that includes the UK), everyone should be worried about the consequences of them going pop whether they trade in Euros, Pounds or potatoes.

That may be the case, but what about the 1000's of other institutions connected to this can of worms. For example one not many people will be familiar with-

Hypo Real Estate’s debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain  amounts to about $52 billion.

Hypo Real Estate is owned by the German Taxpayers.

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3 minutes ago, botchy123 said:

That may be the case, but what about the 1000's of other institutions connected to this can of worms. For example one not many people will be familiar with-

Hypo Real Estate’s debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain  amounts to about $52 billion.

Hypo Real Estate is owned by the German Taxpayers.

It´s clear that investing in Lego is a safe haven and our only hope!

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There is a chance for an anti EU head of state as Austria's presidential elections are being re-run and that was very tight. The other thing is the CSU (Merkel's coalition partners) have said they won't send another euro to cover the deficit in the EU budget caused by the Brexit as they are losing votes to the AFD and 2017 is the election year.

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3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Meanwhile the USD continues to appreciate which will damage US exports and make China and Euro seller stuff cheaper. Will be interesting to see what the next president does to devalue the currency.

Yes but China will decrease it in response.

They make up numbers such as GDP their head of it even said they were not true. Did you know that they are on course with current housing projects to hit 3 billion homes as this boosts GDP but these are vacant leading to ghost cities now the population is 1.3 billion and they want it to remain that size. The problem being officials are paid by GDP results so they build extreme amounts that will not be filled for instance GDP for one province was 21% one year then the next was -3% anyone see a problem there?

Still with Britain out China has lost it's main cheerleader for favorable trade in the EU expect huge tariffs on their steel which is highly subsided by the government through the SOE (state owned enterprises) system.

 

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Well my latest round of balance transfers in the USA from Chase are all 0% for 12 months with ZERO balance transfer fee. Usually the fees are 2% which is %1 in real terms. Now I am getting paid to borrow money. Who am I to say no lol. Let the good times roll.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Well, to sum up the last 2 months for me: being a EU citizen I had a great time selling my Lord of the Rings collection in the UK about 6 weeks ago when the GBP-EUR conversion rate was sky high. Really made a nice profit there.

Two weeks ago, when the GBP plummeted and Amazon UK had a lot of nice deals I was happy again :-)

So far, short term effects are going really well. Long term will be interesting though.

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  • 10 months later...
On 24. 6. 2016 at 4:30 AM, AirborneAFOL said:

Incidentally, I did my International Relations masters thesis on the "inevitability of the EU's disintegration amidst increasingly proactive legislation of traditionally domestic policy matters".

My short version would be this won't have much impact on the broader LEGO market. Likely increases is tariffs shipping into and out of England would cut both ways - sellers there would find less competition from "international shippers", but become less competitive for "international sales" themselves.

A Brit would have to speak to whether they they consider themselves a net-exporter (hence Brexit bad for English sellers, good for the rest of EU), or vice versa...

Hey! that is a mesmerizing theme topic of your dissertation! (no sarcasm). Id really love to read it.

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  • 1 month later...

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