So Far TLG has produced three Minecraft Micro World sets:  21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night, 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village, and 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The original Minecraft set was designed by Mojang on CUUSOO and began to make its way into houses in 2012.  The set was such an incredible hit that the LEGO company actually ran out of the set, and had to get another shipment in.  That only lasted about fifteen minutes and TLG had to get another shipment of the set.  This time supplies lasted, but the set still remained popular and stayed in the "25 most popular sets" list on S@H.  Fast forward to the 2013 San Diego Comic Con where TLG announced that there will be two more Minecraft Micro Worlds,  The Village and The Nether.  They are also still popular, and even though they all are very simple sets with many small 1x1 and 1x2 plates, tiles, and bricks, they all remain best sellers.  TLG has just recently announced that they will be creating minifig scale Minecraft sets.  In this article, I will be stating my own personal opinion (backed by facts and history) about the Minecraft theme and will also be determining which Micro World set will give us more bang for our buck.

The first set that we will be looking at is the 21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night.  It was released in February of 2012.  This is the set that started the entire Minecraft theme.  The key factor to the popularity of this set is the game that it is based on:  Minecraft.  If Minecraft never existed and if it was an original theme that TLG created, than sales would not be anywhere close to where they are today.  The Micromobs are neat, but they are not all that detailed.  This is a set for Minecraft fans, and considering that over 13,400,000 people have downloaded the PC/Mac version,  there is a definite market for this set.  Out of the three Micro World sets, this the most iconic.  If the Steve and Creeper Micromobs do not appear in future Micro World sets, then that might give this set the small push that it needs to get to the top of the LEGO Micro World sets.  Another thing to consider while analyzing this set is that it is the very first LEGO Minecraft set to be created.  That alone should make this set a winner among Minecraft and LEGO fans alike.  People who want to take their LEGO Minecraft models to the next level will want to buy more than one set and build models like this:

The next set we will be analyzing is the 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village.  This set was released on September first, 2013 along with the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The Village was the most popular of the Minecraft sets this past Christmas, even out-preforming The First Night.  However, that was only because it was the most recent Minecraft set before Christmas, 2013.  More people asked for this set for Christmas because they already had The First Night.  After a year or two, things will even out, and we will see which set is the winner of the two.  This set has a different variety of tiles and pieces which will help people who want to build their own Minecraft creations.  The Micromobs in this set are also neat, and the pig is very recognizable.  This is another great investment.

The last of the three Minecraft sets is the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  Out of the three LEGO Micro Worlds, this one was the least popular this past Christmas.  Considering that this set was released on the same day as The Village, (which was the most popular set this Christmas,) this set might become the loser out of the three Micro Worlds.  However, this is not a bad investment.  This past Christmas I saw people on eBay selling all three of the Minecraft Micro Worlds for $180 dollars.  If they had bought these at retail, then they would have made $75 dollars.  People will want to complete their Minecraft collection with this set.  If they buy their favorite sets first, (most likely 21102 and 21105,) than they will be buying this set last.  If people don't have this set in their collection by the time it retires, then there will be a higher demand for this set after retirement.

So now after a careful evaluation of all three of these sets, we have to determine which one will be the winner.  The Village has a good chance of being the best investment, considering that it was the most popular Minecraft set this last Christmas.  The Nether did not do as well, though.  It was released on the same date as The Village, which probably means that people do not like The Nether as much.

The Village has proved to be a popular set worth investing in, but I think that the true winner will end up being The First Night.  The First Night has something that The Village does not, and that is 10,000 supporters on CUUSOO that made the whole Minecraft theme possible.  CUUSOO is not a Minecraft fan community; it is a LEGO fan community.  The First Night is recognizable to nearly everyone - even people who have never played Minecraft.  The bright colors and the box design of this set should make people want to buy and build it.  Overall, The First Night is a great set for LEGO and Minecraft fans and collectors alike.

There are only two reasons not to invest in the Minecraft Micro World sets:

#1.  They shows no signs of retiring.
#2.  If TLG waits too long to retire them, then they might flood the market.

I believe that these reasons could affect the value, but it will not be the make or break for these sets.  If you have plenty of storage space and do not mind waiting, than reason #1 is not very significant.  Reason #2 may sound like a good reason, but I think we can all take a lesson from the 10197 Fire Brigade while considering this problem.  I can remember many people saying that it would take the Fire Brigade more than a year to reach $200 dollars after it retired because it had been available for so long.  Guess what?  The Fire Brigade is worth more than $220 dollars and it is currently listed as "sold out" on S@H.  I can not remember one set becoming so popular that if flooded the market.  After researching the Minecraft sets, I would say that they are all good investments, great for flipping and long term investing ( if you are willing to wait a while.)

So what does the future of LEGO Minecraft hold?  TLG is working on minifig scale Minecraft sets right now, and they look amazing from what I have seen.  I expect LEGO to release some more Micro World sets, and if they keep it up, then these first three will become valuable classics.  If you head on over to the LEGO Minecraft website you can see some of the minifig scale sets they are working on.  LEGO even revealed some wallpapers which show some Micromobs that might be included in future sets.

Overall, I am very excited about the future of LEGO Minecraft, and believe that it could become a very solid theme.

I hope you have found this article useful.

Thanks for reading.

Original idea MartinP - how much investment potential do holiday promo sets have?

If you've been investing for any appreciable amount of time, you'll be aware that Brick Friday is one of the most important events on a LEGO investors calendar.  Personally, I drive my wife nuts outlining various purchasing strategies for this special time - how to maximize my purchases within a limited budget.  Also to consider is how to maximize the number of free holiday promo sets; each order ideally just clears the minimum to obtain the goodies TLG offers buyers, like a carrot in front of a hungry mule. (We are the mules in this analogy, and by god we want that carrot)

For real newcomers to BrickPicker.com, we've just passed another Brick Friday and you'll have to stick around for another eleven or so months to experience the rush.  I can briefly outline what it is all about.  Traditionally (at least in my limited Brick Friday experiences) LEGO VIP members (which should be pretty much everyone as it is free to join) get access to limited deals the weekend before Black Friday in the USA.  Generally I don't find the deals all the enticing, but there are usually better incentives - double or triple VIP points and free Christmas-themed Creator Holiday sets if your order exceeds a set dollar amount.  The combination of triple VIP points and a neat little Christmas set that can be sold (if desired) can make large LEGO exclusives and large hard to find sets much more reasonable in price - the catch being you have to use those VIP points on more LEGO, but if you are investing in LEGO it shouldn't be too difficult to find LEGO sets you want from S&H.  Another wrinkle is that in 2011 and 2013, there were two sets that were available at different times, encouraging people like you and me to buy plenty of LEGO sets during both promotional periods to get matching sets.

This brings us to MartinP's real question - do these holiday promos have any serious investment potential?  If not, and they are going to generally plateau at a certain price point, when is the best time to sell these adorable little sets?  After all, we're all looking to maximize our returns on these little free sets so we can get what we really want - large LEGO sets at a 'discount'.

Below I'd like to detail the original offers on the promo sets as well as their success on the secondary market.  Below that, I'll include my take based on a quick check of current ebay sold listings that haven't been included in the Brickpicker database for December 2013.

What can we learn from this data?  First, I think that the 2011 sets don't display that well with other Winter Village sets (Toy Shop, аakery, Cottage, etc.) and are therefore not as desirable.  Also, the Santa minifigure in the second 2011 holiday set might be the catalyst for its slightly better growth.  That being said, recent ebay sold listings for December 2013 show that all sets listed above are selling for more than their Brickpicker average, leading me to ascertain that (duh) these sets will sell for a higher price around the holiday season.

My personal take is that these sets appear in huge numbers immediately following the promotion and it is unlikely you are going to get the best value from your set with a quick flip.  I managed to hit up a couple BIN auctions just after the promo (2013) and picked up two of the first holiday promos for $11.95 each, which I think is a little on the low side.  So far there seems to be a ceiling of around $30 that these sets can command, making it more reasonable to use these not as a long term investment, but as a little bonus to reduce your buy in price of large LEGO exclusives.

My advice would be to avoid low starting prices on auctions - these seem to be the recent sold listings that sell for $20 and under - stick to BIN and there is plenty of evidence that you can get a higher price.  Also, if you can grab a few pretty cheap right after they flood the market there may be an opportunity to make a decent return, but thus far there doesn't seem to be solid year-over-year growth.  If you are going to invest and hold on to those hoping to buck the existing trends, stick to the sets from 2012 and 2013 as I think they work much better with the Winter Village series.  You could also bundle these sets with Winter Village sets (if you are lucky enough to have a slew of EOL'ed sets, this could boost your return) to get more interest in your auctions.

Overall it seems like these neat little sets are most useful as a $25 discount (after fees, approximately) on a LEGO purchase.  That being said, they are very popular - typically among the most sold sets during the holidays, so I would be interested in seeing if someone can invest in quite a few of these little guys and hold them for another 2-4 years to see if they can grow.  They are small, and easy to store, but I think you'd have to invest in a large number of sets in order to see a sizeable total profit - personally, I'll sell them, take the money and run.

It seems like a lifetime ago I wrote a little piece about investing in Friends.  At the time, none were quite EOL and there was a lot of speculation about the value of this line for investment purposes.  So, where are my girls at?  How has that first wave of Friends sets done on the secondary market?

For those that have been around long enough, based on the early success of Friends, production for sets of the first wave were increased.  Even with this increase of production, plenty of the initial sets were sold out or hard to find this holiday season, and I suspect several will move from sold out at S&H to retired (which is now one of the most beautiful words in the English language, I think) in early 2014.  Obviously, even with increased production, Friends remains a huge seller.  Gandalf and Bilbo, Vader and Harry Potter are all looking up at the current number four CAGR% theme.  Number four, people!  I was thinking top ten when I wrote the initial article on Friends investing, but I didn't think it would be topping Superheroes and Batman - even from someone who loved this line, I still underestimated their appeal a little.  As of Dec. 31st, 2013, this theme sports a massive 52.61% CAGR!

*Note: The chart continues on to a second page for three more reviews!

The world of LEGO investing is one that is constantly evolving and changing.  Right now, with a lot of the first wave of Friends sets being OOS, Sold Out or Retired on S&H, there are almost more changes than one can keep track of.  Hopefully this chart offers enough information on current trends for these sets.  Looking at these trends, there are several options that look set to double, triple or quadruple (plus) their retail in the coming twelve months.  Some can still be found at retail, some even on sale, but I'm pretty certain most of the sets listed above won't be available for long (see exceptions in the chart).

In anecdotal evidence, I had a fair amount of success selling Butterfly Beauty Shops and Heartlake Dog Shows, two of the sets I targeted way back when.  So, with the first wave in the process of EOLing (yes, it can be used as a verb, English lit-LEGO investors) what does the future hold?  For the first time since the launch of Friends, a second girl-oriented line will be sold alongside it - Disney Princesses!  Also, with two Christmas seasons in a row with (seemingly) limited stock, will TLG double production again?  Even if they do, there should still be opportunities on 2012 Friends sets that are highlighted above.  Plenty of questions, and only speculation at this point, but I think Friends will keep near the top of the CAGR percent heap and offer savvy investors plenty of opportunities to make greenbacks from those pink and purple bricks. 

Lego Chima is a very interesting theme to say the absolute least. When the them first came out, I think my collective thoughts on each set were "What the hell is that?". To a certain extent I still ask myself that, so I had always had a pretty negative view of Chima along with many other posters on the forum. I see some people prop up a few individual sets, but they are certainly not called out as targets for big time investing. In fact, I think that even the lowly Lone Ranger theme (I say lowly in a tentative manner obviously) gets a lot more love than the Chima theme. I am a victim of this myself - I look at these sets and see "little kids toys" and a bunch of random Asian influenced anime-type characters and just don't see the same thing I see when I look at a Modular or a UCS Star Wars set. You could probably go back and quote me just a month or two ago saying that I wanted to "Wait and see on this theme".

However, a few things weighed on me and started to change my mind.

I wanted to share them and see if they changed anyone else's mind. My first thoughts into it actually came with a post Ed Mack (co site-creator) said several months ago. I can not find the original post, but it was to the effect of "There are 100's of Lego Sets that are winners that are not even mentioned once on this site". A lot has been made of investment sets like the Fire Brigade and the Fun House, the Orc Forge, etc. being stockpiled and diminishing their value. To me, I saw Ed's statement as meaning "If you want to stay ahead of the game, you have to find the hidden fruit." Think about this: The set that had one of the highest CAGR's since its release and probably won the award for it last year is The Zombies - a small 40$ Monster Fighters Set. Yes, it had a very short production run, but how many people had really seen a ton of investment value in this set. Furthermore, how many times was it actually mentioned on this site?

So I have lately started looking for the "Gems" in the investment world. I started looking at the smaller, less talked about Ninjago sets. I also took another piece of Ed's advice and picked up some different Hero Factory sets he had written blogs about; 30% CAGR later I am feeling good about those. But as I kept playing around with these different sleeper sets, I still didn't know what to think of Chima. Its still unproven, I still don't really know what it is, and there are SO many sets around to really choose from.

About a month or so ago, I went to the Lego store and it was freaking packed. I hate when places are so packed with people you can't move, so I wanted to get in and get out. As I was looking around I overheard some small children pointing out Chima Lego sets that they wanted. They were going on about Birdmen, "wolf guys", "bird ships", and more that made no sense. I sort of laughed it off, but it suddenly dawned on me: Not only was I discounting this theme because I didn't know what it is (a big time no-no for any investor), I was thinking that actually had some baring on the sets investment values. Sure, they have to have memorable names and a story behind it - this is really what the show is designed to do - but all the kids cared about were that the sets were cool. They wanted them.

So I asked myself - what really makes this theme different than Ninjago? With Ninjago, everyone says its popular because "kids like Ninjas and dragons". However, Destiny's Bounty has done great. The Rattlecopter is seeing solid gains. And we all know Spinners are Winners. In all seriousness, its not. And Ninjago was discounted by tons of people when it came out too when it came to investment value.

At this point, I hadn't really written or solidified my thoughts on the theme yet (I really like to write down or type out thins as it legitimizes them for me). Luckily, one of our esteemed members, Quacs, PM'd me and asked me about my thoughts on the Chima Series. I wrote a pretty long paragraph cataloging a lot of the points I am going to make below and in the coming sets of Blogs. Quacs replied he totally agreed and he wont be caught without these sets either when the proverbial clock strikes midnight.

So why am I convinced this theme is a winner?

The are done the "Lego" way - the right way.

Obviously this can be interpreted any way you want looking at old sets and themes, and it certainly doesn't just take this to make a theme a winner, but these are what I would call "top of the line" Lego sets. This means they have everything collectors, investors, and anyone else looks for in a Lego sets. The sets are incredibly detailed and colorful - there really aren't any dull Chima sets that I have seen. The sets have tons of moving parts, flick missles, vehicles and ships. Also, what I think is most important, the theme has an insane amount of variety. The Chi Raider 70012 is a giant Bird Ship. You then have the Chi Temple 70010, which is a castle or sorts. Past that, there is Cragger's Ship 70006 , a classic ship or sorts made to fit the theme. There are tons more as well. Each vehicle or base/hideout is extremely unique which offers more and more to different people to get theme interested in the theme. The more variety in a theme, the more it appeals to everyone. Think about this in terms of the Lone Ranger: Who do those sets appeal to? Western collectors, the cult of people who liked the movie and trains? Obviously Chima has more sets, but that only strengthens the theme in my opinion.

No Licensing Agreement - This is Lego's Theme

Ok, before you kill me with the argument that licensed themes do the best (which is right in a lot of ways), look at this from a different angle. Lego has invested a ton of money into this theme (hence the TV show, the wide array of sets, etc.) because they make all the money from it. There are no hands grabbing sections of this as the money train makes its way to TLG. Just like Ninjago and Lego Friends, Lego will work and work to make sure that this theme is known, is popular, and is established.  Commercials have started running for these themes as well. This really works in tandem with everything else, but Chima will be a winner because Lego wont stop until it is during production. And rarely does a theme do well in production and drop off after it.

The Minifigures

I have definitely heard some negative things about the minifigures from this series on the forums here. I, again, was skeptical but looking at how well Ninjago figures do, I figured these followed in those same footsteps. If you do not know, I have ran a Lego business on Ebay for about 4 Months now and a big part of that is piecing and parting out sets - especially minifigures. I also buy large minifigure lots and part them out as well. A couple of months ago, I decided to take the leap and grab some Chima sets to part out.

On one hand, the figures are really hard to part out. But this is a good thing for the secondary market - they are hard to part out because they all have SO MUCH going on with them. Almost every Chima figure is 8-10 pieces including the weapons, wings, helmets, etc. For us, this seems a bit like overdoing it, but for those who know Children well, that word is not in their vocabulary.

As some "fact" to offer up with this - Chima Figures were just behind Ninjago as my fourth best seller during December (Star Wars and Lord of the Rings being 1 and 2 respectively). However, I offer much less Chima in my store. I sold about 50% of my inventory during December, more than twice that of any other theme. And, it beat out Super Heroes figures surprisingly. This means there is a market out there.

Sleepers, Sleepers, Sleepers

There is definitely no way to tell something is a "sleeper". And ina  lot of the ways, if you advertise a set on this site as a sleeper, it immediately becomes "awake" as we saw with the Funhouse. However, no matter how many blogs I write, these sets from this theme are going to be overlooked by the majority of investors. There will be (I will speculate on which ones in upcoming articles) sets, mark my words, that experience staggering secondary market growth and cause 95% of us on here to go "Why the hell didn't I grab that when I walked by an isle of 50 of them". And there will be much more than just one set doing this.

Furthering this argument, this theme as I had said will be pushed and pushed and pushed by Lego. Maybe the first set of retirees don't jump right at the beginning and a few of us get worried. But IF this theme does take off, the sets you are seeing from this first run that are or will be retiring soon may just become the holy grail. Just like the early Dragons from the Ninjago series, you will see a few sets benefit from the theme becoming huge and these sets becoming sought after because they are so rare (Think the Market Street effect on a smaller stage).

So what are the downsides? Well, there are risks with everything. The theme is unproven for sure. There are TONS of sets which could make it much harder to pick a winner and also dilute the pool a bit as things may not be as recognizable. The minifigures do have a lot going on and maybe Children love simplicity. Perhaps these are not actually selling well at all and it is only a matter of time before Lego drops the whole theme altogether.

In conclusion, as a lot of investment risks do, our choices come down to "am I willing to take a leap of faith on this theme based on what we see so far?". I know my answer to that question: I don't want to be kicking myself later.

First, yes, yes, I know the Coast Guard isn't actually part of the navy, although did you know that at any time the President can transfer the USCG to the Department of the Navy, or that Congress can do this during times of war?  So, accuracy aside, just let it slide as it makes for a better title.  Who doesn't like Village People references in the Lego investing world?

Now, down to nuts and bolts and anchors.  The City Theme doesn't get a lot of posts and discussion, which is just crazy as its current CAGR%(Compound Annual Growth Rate) is a hefty 20.22%.  This dwarfs much more discussed themes (I'm looking at you, Star Wars) that don't provide rates of return (SW, still you at 8.24%) and offer many possibilities for the small to mid-sized investor.  One of the drawbacks for an investor might be the sheer number of City sets that are available at retail at any given time - where to put your hard earned capital? Luckily, the City theme has plenty of sub themes that seem to rotate regularly and might even offer better opportunities than simply closing your eyes and randomly throwing sets into your cart.  In addition, City themes are available at many retailers and I've never had trouble tracking down City sets with sales/promotions quite easily.  So, let's take a look at a really great sub theme that is currently available at retail right now - Coast Guard sets.

A little light reading at Brickipedia provides a nice snapshot of this particular theme, which has been around in some form or another since 1978!  It turns out that Lego decided to mark my birth in '78 with this theme - thanks, Lego!  Feel free to explore some of the really old sets if you'd like, but for the purposes of this post, I'm going to focus on the 2008 sets for comparison purposes.  One key and noticeable difference between the 2008 and 2013 sets is that this release doesn't have a 'base' like the 4210 Coast Guard Platform.  It would have been nice to have an updated reissue of this set with a higher piece count.  Another factor to consider is that the most recent BrickPicker information is clouded by the reissue factor - since the release of the 2013 Coast Guard sets, it seems that the 2008 sets are losing value.

As with all City sub themes, there is a danger in a reissue.  It seems the Coast Guard theme is pretty popular and gets regular installments, so I'd expect another round of sets in 2017 or 2018.  It seems likely that the current range of sets will be available for all of 2014 and might become hard to find or EOL(End of Line) by late 2014 or early 2015, giving a savvy investor about a two year window to allow for appreciation and then sales before another reissue.  I'm not advising a basement full of each set in the range, but I think it would be wise to grab the two biggest sets (60014 Coast Guard Patrol and 60015 Coast Guard Plane) over the course of the next year when you see them at a solid discount.  I think if you can get them at 20-30% off you'll be pleasantly rewarded with a solid ROI%(Return on Investment).  A conservative expectation for these two larger sets might be 75% growth from retail two years post-EOL with the possibility of growth over 100% from retail bringing it in line with the sets from 2008.  If you don't mind the hassle of lots of shipments and the related pains of selling lots of little sets with a good ROI% but not much total profit, feel free to invest in the smaller sets when on sale.  Just make sure you're willing to do a fair amount of work for a small total profit!

In short, it is time to get your sea legs.  All aboard!  Next stop, Profitville!  

10230 Mini Modulars Set Information

Name: 10230 Mini Modulars
Theme: Exclusives, Advanced Models
Year Released: 2012
Pieces: 1356
Minifigures: None
Price (MSRP): $79.99 US / $99.99 CAN / $99.99 AUS / £59.99 UK / 69.99€ EU

Summer 2012 brought us a unique and exclusive set known as 10230 Mini Modulars. The set was not only an exclusive to the Lego Brand Retail and Shop @ Home, but was also only available for VIP cardholders. Capturing the essence of the first five modulars released by Lego (Market Street, Cafe Corner, Green Grocer, Fire Brigade, and Grand Emporium) in tiny scale, the set provides a much more affordable alternative than the real sets. It recently gone out of stock at Lego.com and it would appear its retirement is imminent. Therefore, it seemed like the perfect time to write up an article about the set to help induce even more panic buying (insert evil grin here). Jump right into the world of miniature models and mega profits!

The Build

Opening the box reveals five neatly organized bags, one for each of the buildings (numbered in the order that each of them was released, starting with Cafe Corner and Market Street which were both 2007 releases). The first instruction booklet covers bags 1-3, with the second covering 4-5. The instructions are cleanly designed and contain the standard part inventory (at the back of book 2) and piece box for each step.

The construction of the modulars is a slow and piece intensive process considering their size. I would say the vast majority of pieces are small plates and tiles, which makes it a nice parts pack. There is a bit of repetition here and there (like in the windows for the Grand Emporium) but the true source of frustration for builders will likely come from the small size of the pieces, which can make construction difficult in some areas. However, the set uses a huge amount of interesting techniques that make it a very enjoyable build overall. From the SNOT used for Market Street, to the bell of the Fire Brigade or the lifesaver lined with skeleton legs on Cafe Corner, the set is an excellent lesson on how  to capture the spirit of larger models in micro scale. The basic pictures in this review don't do the set justice; when you build it you really can feel that the designer had a lot of fun with it (not to mention did a kick-butt job), and it will make you appreciate the detail in the buildings a whole lot more. Lego doesn't do micro builds that much, and after completing the set you will be hungry for more.

The Completed Model

Once you finish building, you are left with five excellent models. The set does lack the playability of minifigure scale sets, but I still found myself fooling around with the buildings trying to find the best arrangement for a good twenty minutes (I settled on the one above). Real modulars are instantly impressive due to their size but only upon closer examination is the detail seen. With the mini modulars, the high detail is apparent from first glance, making it a great desktop display for AFOLs. Unfortunately I do not have a full size modular to compare them to size-wise, but this picture from the BrickBlogger gives you an idea of how the buildings live up to their bigger brothers:

Nice, right? Even the backs of the building remain true to their larger forms - I really like the fire escape on the Green Grocer and you may or may not have noticed already that each mini modulars' 8x8 plate base is the same color as their inspiration's base plate (normal modulars are built on 32x32 baseplates), which is why some are different colors than each other. The picture below shows off the generous amount of extras:

Cafe Corner (Based on 10182)

First up is my personal favorite of the five, Cafe Corner. The full size model of this sucker costs you over 1000 bucks with current market prices and contains over 2000 pieces but this fist-sized rendition uses probably a tenth of those pieces. The construction is fun and introduces builders to some of the techniques that will be used throughout the rest of the models like the SNOT used on the second floor or the teeth used as windows. It's a genius creation and a worthy cornerstone to the set. It should be noted  that it contains the only two exclusive pieces in the model, the printed "HOTEL" 1x6 plate and 6 1x2 reddish brown plates with door rails. Well technically, the reddish brown plates do appear in another set, the Comic-Con Bag End, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. A great start to a great set!            

Market Street (Based on 10190)

The second model is a rendition of the 2007 Factory exclusive, Market Street. Like Cafe Corner, the original has appreciated nicely and fetches bids in the quadruple digits. Including it in the set caused a bit of controversy among Lego fans who insisted it was not a true modular because it was released under the Factory line. I always found 10190 Market Street to be the most messy  of the modulars, and the mini version's clean lines do a lot to correct this. Since all three floors are built with the same SNOT technique, it is the only one that you can break apart into each floor. It has really grown on me since I built it, but it does seem like the proportions have been stretched a bit from the original to make it seem more like an Amsterdam canal house; tall and skinny. Which is totally fine, but seems like a bit of a blip in the otherwise authentic representation of the building.

Green Grocer (Based on 10185)

Now we come to the Green Grocer, which was voted as the favorite modular  of AFOLs on Eurobricks. It has lots of cool details like the fruit basket out front and the fire hydrant (that's what the 2 red studs are out front if you're wondering) and is another solid build (with lots of delicious 1x1 clear bricks!). My only gripe is that the upper window doesn't have any glass in it. I know, it's just nitpicking considering everything else is pretty much perfect and they would have to make a new glass piece to fit it, but it makes the model feel incomplete. Excellent build, otherwise.

           Fire Brigade (Based on 10197)

Fire Brigade is the fourth installment in the set. It is quite impressive like the others, but I'd say it has the worst build (mostly 1x1 plate stacking, which gets annoying after awhile), and the bell roof is ridiculously oversized (if you applied that proportion to the real set, the bell roof would be 16 studs wide instead of 8). If you can get over that, it's just another top notch mini-build. 10197 has been making significant buzz in the investing world recently as it appears to be finally retiring after a 4 year run (all the above ones have already retired), making it an even more valuable addition to this set. 

Grand Emporium (Based on 10211)

The grand finale in this epic micro building symphony is the Grand Emporium. The full scale model has been criticized here and there for being too bland, but the mini model doesn't suffer from that problem. The second and third floor windows are a bit repetitive, yes, but the creation has enough details to recover (window cleaners, billboard, flags, ice cream stand, mail box, etc.). Like the fullscale one, it really looks like a decked out Macy's store (or the Bay for us Canadians). If you are looking for trans green windows in the real model, you can stop because there aren't any. There wasn't enough space to accurately represent both the clear windows and dark green trimming in the model, so I guess they combined the two to just make trans dark green windows. Smart move in my opinion, and superb finish to the set. Yeesh, I'm running out of positive adjectives to describe this set!

Well, there you go. It's a beautiful set, and like I said before any (or all) of the five models make for great desk displays at work or home (even teasing coworkers will want to check them out). The price is a bit of a drawback, but piece wise, it's excellent value at 5.8 cents per piece. You may be surprised that the set is bigger than sets like 10213 Shuttle Adventure (1204 pcs, 8.3c per piece) piece wise. That said, a person arguing for price per gram to become the standard for calculating value would point to this set as an example, as most pieces are tiny and you aren't necessarily getting more plastic even though you are getting more pieces (it is 8.03 cents per gram compared to 10213 Shuttle Adventure's 5.1 cents per gram). I would give the set a 8.5/10. It's a must have for AFOLs and building-savvy KFOLs, especially those who always wanted a modular but found them to expensive. It's a standalone set and won't fit into your regular city, but that's fine because it's remarkable by itself.

Investment Analysis

So, it makes a great display piece, but does it have what it takes to stand out in the aftermarket? I would definitely think so, for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the set is exclusive within being exclusive (exclusiception, anyone?), as it is restricted to only Lego VIP members and sold only from Lego directly. I'd estimate that the production for the set is in the tens of thousands. Additionally, it had only been available for about a year until last week (Dec. 2013) when it went out of stock on Lego.com worldwide, after being on discount for about a month. If it doesn't come back in stock (which seems likely or else it would not have been discounted), that is relatively short production run for an exclusive, especially a modular-related exclusive.

Secondly, not only is the set a distinct representation of one of the most praised and poplular themes among AFOLs - the modulars - but it is very rare for Lego to release microscale sets (if you'd like to learn more about modulars as investments, check out this article by FCBarcelona101: http://www.brickpicker.com/lego-modulars-still-worthy-investments/). To get an idea of the kind of growth that this will set receives come its EOL, let's look at the returns of similar sets. The chart below compares the set to the growth experienced by the full scale modulars it features, and three exclusive microscale factory sets from 2005:

The chart shows that retired sets similar to 10230 Mini Modulars have performed extraordinarily, often holding double digit CAGRs (Compounded Annual Growth Rates). 5526 Skyline, which is probably the most similar set as it is also made up of microscale renditions of existing source material like the statue of liberty, has seen huge growth, and the three retired modulars featured in the set are the holy grails of Lego investing. Granted, 5525 and 5524 haven't performed that well but I would consider the appeal and building techniques of the Mini Modulars far superior.

Another thing that should be mentioned is that Lego is likely to release another Mini Modular set next year when they have another five modulars to miniaturize. The serial appeal worked wonders for the original modular  line, and I think if they released another it would without a doubt raise the popularity of 10230.

Part-outters would definitely be able to profit with the set simply because of its low price per piece ratio of 5.8 cents per piece, despite its lack of many exclusive parts, but at this point I would advise against parting out the set in favor of selling it sealed. Due to its AFOL appeal, interesting building techniques, unique microscale medium, exclusivity, and ties to the original modular line, I think very good things are in store for this set, and will predict a rough 5-year CAGR of 27.5%, resulting in a value of $269.51 in 2018.

Depending on how accurately I estimated the appeal of the set, it could go higher or lower, but this mini set is definitely packed with some mega potential. Get 'em before they're gone!

Welcome back to the November 2013 entry of best selling LEGO sets based on ebay data. As I mentioned last time, I will only be commenting on those sets that are completely new to the Top 10 listing, as it talking about the original Minecraft set or the Millenium Falcon gets a little repetitive after a couple times.

Interesting about this list is that we can actually starting watching some trends regarding sets that may become very popular during the month of December, and in some way help us predict which have some "flipping" potential. This year's shopping season is almost over, but by comparing this November data against December's we should have a pretty good idea of how useful this may turn out to be in 2014.

November 2013 Top Ten

1-

636 Sold (New)

One of the many promotional mini sets released during the holiday season by LEGO, there is really no surprise this nice set made its way to the top of the November Top 10. As it happens with sets from the Winter Village theme, there is a really big demand for this kind of build during these months, as people really get into building Christmas displays while others take advantage of selling the set to effectively reduce the price of their "actual" purchases.

2-

611 Sold (New)

3-

579 Sold (New)

One of the most unique and specialized sets ever released by TLG, in my opinion. This proved to be extremely popular during its very short run both with investors, flippers and LEGO fans in general (with some architect buffs thrown in the mix as well). It's really impressive that Architecture Studio managed to place third in the list surpassing other well known staples like the 7965 Millenium Falcon and the 2 new Minecraft sets. At this point, you'll be really lucky if you can find one at MSRP.

4-

339 Sold (New)

As a very distant fourth position we find the 2010 version of the SW Advent Calendar. Personally, I find it kind of surprising that the older version managed to be on this month's Top 10 while the 2013 version didn't. I am really not a follower of this particular line of sets, but I assume that a big part is due to the fact that you could still find this version at deep discounts at some retailers, and it would ultimately serve the same purpose as 2013's. Another related factor could be that buyers found the new version's mini builds less appealing, but I defer to the calendar fans to confirm or dispute this.

5-

319 Sold (New)

Riding on the success of the original model, LEGO decided to produce a couple more Minecraft models that proved to be an instant hit (as expected). Even though the original model continues to be a very distant "winner", The Village positioned itself as the 2nd best of the theme surpassing The Nether (#11). I actually prefer the latter, but it seems the I'm in the minority.

6-

284 Sold (New)

7-

256 Sold (New)

This entry actually confirms that for some reason the older Advent Calendars seem to sell way better than current versions, at least based on what it happened during this season.

8-

228 Sold (New)

9-

249 Sold (New)

One of the nice surprises of the year is the confirmation of the Friends theme as an extremely successful line of sets. If you have been shopping in B&M stores this season, you probably noticed that almost every single set from the line had completely disappeared from the shelves. The Dolphin Cruiser will definitely place somewhere in December's Top 10.

10-

216 Sold (New)

Had this list been September's and this little polybag would have been just 6 sales away from taking the first position. The mini version of the Camper Van is probably one of the best designs for a promotional item ever released, and fits perfectly when displayed along its larger and equally impressive brother. This excellent design proved its popularity among LEGO fans, and made me wish more mini sets like this were released more often. I would personally enjoy a mini version of the soon to be released Maersk Triple-E.

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This ends our Top 10 for November, until next time!

Thanks for reading.

I know it has been a while, so I wanted to do a Set that I was really exited about for my next visual review/blog. I haven't been into Lego sets very long, but I am a huge Star Wars fan. Besides the obvious sets like all the UCS ships, my favorite retired sets are all the Duel sets. Mostly because they are simple and can be displayed in a bunch of different ways.

Unfortunately it has really been a long time since we have had one. Luckily, with the fall lineup we finally got a new one and it was a great one: The Duel on Genosis. Why does it look so great? Well, for one, its much bigger than the other duel sets there have been. Pretty much every Duel set there has been has had less than 200 pieces and just 2 minfigures. This one has 391 pieces and has a lot more play pieces which we will go over below.

On to the duel!

So first off, the box:

I really love this box. In general, I like two different types of boxes: Boxes that really make the ship or set stand out with a color complimentary background that really makes it stand out, and boxes that have a lot of different things going on making the set look really fun. This one fits the latter description. You have Poggle the Lesser flying around, the big column is falling, Yoda is hovering while in battle with Doku. Even the overhead lights on the arch are lighting up. There isn't a child that sees this set that wont want to play with it. The box is definitely one of the better ones of the new sets.

My only complaint against the box is that the background being brown doesn't compliment the set quite as much as I'd like. I am not sure the set draws you to it, though once you look you are pretty wow-ed.

Once you open the box, you get about what you paid for: 391 pieces for about 10 cents a piece. The opened set doesn't look any bigger or smaller - just about average. There isn't anything when you open it that tremendously stands out; most the pieces are of average size. The only sort of cool piece is the large, flat, grey piece in the middle:

On to the set!

First up, we get the "big name" exclusive minfigure, Poggle the Lesser. Though he not actually a big name, he is definitely a more unique minifigure and will most likely carry the value of this set quite a bit (at least in my opinion). Strong minifigures, as we all know, can be very important to a sets value - especially a duel set like this:

I really liked his wings. they are made of a thin, bendable plastic and fit on pretty well. The head piece is the best part as it very detailed and really stands out. This minifigure is going to be pretty sought after in the line because of it's uniqueness.

(Note: Yes I know the dog hair. Sadly, I vacuum, but with three dogs it just doesn't happen. Gonna get hard wood   )

Next up is FA-4, which is a redesign:

This figure is alright, but I don't find that it really has a wow factor. I am not really a big fan of minifigures that include normal pieces with a body and arms and head. It may have been the best way to build this one, but I like them to be more non-lego. Not a ton of value in this figure, but it is only in 2 other sets so its value will most likely be stagnant. I doubt it will show up in many more.

Next up is the excellent re-design of Count Doku:

Though our friend Poggle is the exclusive minifigure, Count Doku is really going to help the value of this set a lot as well. He is, as of now, an exclusive re-design to this set and he looks awesome with the chrome Lightsaber handle and the lightning.

I wouldn't underestimate the lightning effect on the minifigure. I was recently parting out the Jek-14 set and someone on Ebay was selling Jek with lightening (he doesn't come with it in the set). He was getting over $4 more for just having that piece. It is not a very common thing in Star Wars sets, so this definitely is going to help the value.

The face is also done really well with great facial hair detail.

He we go with the rest of the first bag. First up is the speeder the set comes with:

This speeder is pretty close to the one that comes with the 75012 Barc Speeder set. It has just a little different color scheme. though it is nothing crazy impressive, don't underestimate its value to this set. Speeder's are big time fun for children and sets that have them add a lot of play-ability. This adds to all the different things and scenes you can make with this set.

The next part you build is the Arch passageway along with the platform that uses the long, flat, grey piece I spoke of earlier:

The build is pretty easy and fun. Its actually much sturdier than other sets that include archs and things of that nature. The detail to it is really nice as well. the light fixture is also really cool as well as it has places to attach minifigures (in several pictures of the set Poggle is chillin' on top of it).

The last bag gives us another minifigure - an exclusive redesign:

Funny enough, Yoda is not in near as many sets as you think. For being one of the most iconic characters, and probably the most quotable character in the movies, he is only actually in 9 sets. Since there are over 300 Star Wars Lego sets, this makes him fairly rare for his popularity. Most of his variants sell for around $8 or so, and I think this one will fit right in that category, adding some solid value to the set.

The rest of the last bag is the back end of the playset:

The back part of the set is pretty bland building wise but shows off a few of the cool play-ability pieces of the set. For one, the black rod piece is for Yoda so oyu can fly him around while fighting Doku. Second, you have the big column (if you remember in the movie these were used as weapons in this scene quite a few times). This one can be tipped over to fall on an unsuspecting minifigure. It is controlled as well meaning you can stop it in thin air if you would like for Yoda or Doku to use the Force.

So how does the set look displayed?

I think it looks awesome for a $40 set. I decided in mine to have Yoda in clear battle with Doku, poggle is just chillin out watching everything happen and FA-4 is just dead in the middle. I think I have issues...

To display some of the cool parts of this set, here is the flying Yoda and the falling column:

Poggle is going to regret standing there.

As an investment, what can we expect from this set? Well I think it is a big time sleeper winner and here is why:

• Duel Sets past investment success
• Solid minifigures
• Genosis sets

1. Let's see how the duel sets have done. If you didn't know, this is actually sort of a remake of the 7103 Jedi duel with Yoda and Doku. How did that set do?

Retail: $9.99 Current Price: $35.27 CAGR: 12.15% ROI: 253% over 11 Years

Not too bad. In reality, this set did a lot better because it has had pretty stagnant growth for the last while. How did the other Duel sets do?

7101 Lightsaber Duel. Retail : $5.99 Current Price: $21.67 CAGR: 9.67% ROI: 261% over 14 Years

7200 Final Duel. Retail : $6.99 Current Price: $28.40 CAGR: 13.49% ROI: 306% over 11 Years

7201 Final Duel II Retail : $6.99 Current Price: $14.82 CAGR: 7.07% ROI: 112% over 11 Years

Pretty solid, right?

And then, there is the set that most clearly matches up with this set: 7257 Ultimate Light Saber Duel.

7257 Final Duel II Retail : $29.99 Current Price: $116.28 CAGR: 18.46% ROI: 288% over 8 Years Pieces: 282 with 2 Minifigures

This set definitely depicts just a bit more iconic scene, but I think the fight scene with Yoda and Doku is probably one of the best and most iconic scenes of the early episode trilogy. Just think about it - it's the first time that we get to see the ultimate Jedi master in Yoda. He is flipping all over the place, tearing people up. This set has the same suspension type pieces used in 7257 for Yoda, and has some extra play pieces as well as being 100 pieces more. This is definitely good news for the set's value.

2. Here are rough averages for the minifigures on Ebay currently (these obviously will go down after a while but the price of minifigures definitely helps see the value in the set)

• Doku: $15
• Yoda: $9
• FA-4: $4
• Poggle: $8

Total: $36.

Definitely helps you see that the minifigures have definitely value. there were listings that sold for higher for each minifigure. The set has 375 other pieces on top of the valuable minifigures!

3. Genosis. If you haven't noticed, the whole fall line was based on these scenes and really most of the sets have been pretty exceptional looking. I haven't found a bad one in the bunch. With the Genosis battlepacks and the genosis cannon set along with the new line, this is going to add a nice collectible plus to this set along with its great display-ability, play-ability, and minifigures.

Why do I call this set a "sleeper"? Well for one, it is definitely not the stand out set of the fall line. Not that it isn't one of the best, but the redone Gunship and AT-TE along with the Jek set and the Ewok Village are going to overshadow this set quite a bit, especially for investors. That's why I don't think this set will get near as much attention. Plus a lot of investors are not investing in Star Wars near as much. Why does this help? Well, I feel like these investors will buy the more obvious sets like the gunship and the Ewok Village, leaving sets like this to really surprise.

Considering everything we have shown, past sets, the minifigures, the sleeper possibilities and the Genosis line, I am going to predict a pretty conservative 12.5% growth after 5 years (after release). I think this set will at least see 10% and could definitely see up to 20% before I would really be surprised. If it grows at that rate, you would be looking at a price of $72 2-3 years after retirement. I don't think it will be extremely hard to grab this set for $25-$30 meaning you should be able to double your money, and have a nice upside as well.

Eitherway, you have to grab one for your collection if you are a big Star Wars fan. this is definitely the best looking of the duel sets and will be a nice change of pace in between those 200 vehicles you have!

Back in the year of 1999, Lego introduced the world to their latest and incredibly epic license acquisition to date of Star Wars. In the first year alone, they released a mix of thirteen sets based around the original trilogy and beginning of the prequel trilogy. To further the themes’ collectability by the following year, they issued four of the short lived Minifigure Collection (or Minifig Pack) sets each containing three characters plus special stands and introduced the most highly detailed designs to date with the Ultimate Collector Series. Besides being considerably expensive, UCS sets featured the largest number of parts over many.

Jumping ahead thirteen years to 2012, Lego decides on raising the collectible ante for their most popular theme by launching the Planets line. Taking inspiration from the Collectible Minifigures and simple mini-builds within polybags, with a container tossed in for good measure, we end up with a one-of-a-kind and profoundly well blended collectable rolled into one neat little package. Each year (thus far) yields the release of two three-set series’ featuring various builds, characters, and planetoids which make great decorations. With a standard price point affordable by most and different facets appealing to anyone one way or another, they were an immediate success and continue to be.

Below you shall find informative tables and charts for every separate Planet from both Series 1 and 2 released just last year listing a compilation of various values for comparison. Beneath those is my general opinion taking into consideration the current values of worth, highs and lows from sales, and contributing features of design. The sold listings data are from the last five months for the two main staples of resale, eBay and BrickLink. Prior to this article, I have already written and submitted complete set reviews for each and intend on mainly focusing towards investment purposes instead of simply repeating myself. I also took the liberty of adding links under each chart to BrickPicker’s and BrickLink’s price guides. Now let’s get started.

Series 1

9674 - Naboo Starfighter/Naboo

BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

The smallest of all the Planets in both piece count and design had a steady value of worth since the beginning of last year as it was released alongside its Series 1 brethren and already reached sales of more than $30 brand new through eBay. Unfortunately, the currently going value has been wounded since a few months ago by numerous discounts found among various retailers such as Target selling many remaining leftovers from 50% to nearly 75% off. Despite varying difference in opinion surrounding the prequel trilogy, a number of people seem to like the sleek N-1 Starfighter from Naboo. While I honestly did not think this one would perform so remarkably well and fast, I also should not find it surprising for this to fall so far after being on top for so long. With that being said, I can see this making a comeback in due time. As the phrase goes, “It happened before, it can happen again”.

9675 - Sebulba’s Podracer/Tatooine

BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

Besides being the cheapest way to get a hold of the latest version of Sebulba, this has the honor of containing the largest piece count and flimsiest design of any Planet released so far. Before now, I was not quite sure where to place this one truthfully. It has had an oddball rollercoaster ride in value with a couple of high peaks and mostly mid to low valleys and still is scarcely worth more than retail at the moment. There is potential here as I am now seeing this slowly gain momentum thankfully; however, trying to capture that bolt of lightning will take a little patience and boils down to good timing. This continues to be what I would consider a mid to long-term investment assuming it does go anywhere.

9676 - TIE Interceptor/Death Star
BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

Finally, a personal favorite (and many others it would seem) spacecraft and Planet of Series 1! In spite of the insanely high number of listings, this has performed slightly better than Sebulba’s Podracer, had a more uniformed ride altogether and reached some decent heights. It could possibly do better if the number of people trying to sell at the same time wasn’t so high, but even then its track record shows a consistently somewhat reliable level of value and point towards a potential long-term investment despite a current dip. It’s the iconic Death Star (DS-1 Orbital Battle Station specifically) we all know and loved watching get blown up (twice no less) or firing up its laser, and both the TIE Interceptor and pilot (though not as rare as he used to be) are awesome! While listing one at this point in time will yield minimal profit, this particular Planet is just too good to not appreciate well even though that may take a while (and I do mean a while) to gradually do so.

It will be tricky gauging future values for Series 2, thanks to all of those recent discounts and the fact that some can still be found at local retailers across the country, but here goes nothing.

Series 2
9677 - X-Wing Starfighter/Yavin 4
BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

Here we start off the next series with a bang featuring the ever classic, T-65 X-Wing Starfighter! One can go on about everything done right with this set. The design at this scale absolutely cannot get any better period, and who doesn’t want another Rebel pilot? If there were any possible negatives to be found, it would be the fact this exact build was released a couple years prior in a polybag available from various Target and Five Below retailers. Aside from that, I see little to no problems for this one appreciating well if only for the simple fact of how iconic both the starfighter and pilot are. In a similarly odd way, this could almost as easily end up going down the same path as the Naboo Starfighter from the first Series.

9678 - Twin-Pod Cloud Car/Bespin
BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

A favorite secondary character and vehicle from the original trilogy of mine, now in their correct colors! Despite the small size, it is a greatly accurate representation of the Storm IV Twin-Pod Cloud Car and the completely exclusive minifigure features a nicely balanced mix between Lobot from the film and a Lego character. While I am surprised in a way with its currently low value at the same time I am not. Majority of reviews and opinions from across the web have been positive up to the point of even stating this is the best Planet. In any case, this took those countless discounts the hardest as its value on eBay has gone down to almost half retail yet the number of units sold keeps rising. Amusingly enough, this has performed better overall on BrickLink. Although this will definitely be another to add upon the list of long-term investments, I have faith in the uniqueness eventually pulling it through and even outshine the Twin-Pod Cloud Car set from 2002.

9679 - AT-ST Walker/Endor
BrickPicker Price Guide/BrickLink Price Guide

This is by far the best mini-build of the AT-ST ever and includes a one-of-a-kind version of its Imperial Pilot. Sales for this particular set have performed a little more than the X-Wing altogether, and both are selling better than the Cloud Car at the moment from either eBay or BrickLink. Opinions have been favorable and although I have found a rather similar design in a previous polybag from 2011, I can imagine this one doing very well with some ease in the long run.

On a side note, the Planet itself is technically the forest moon of Endor and not to be confused with the cyan gas planet it orbits around that the Ewoks named Tana, which will be featured in the upcoming B-Wing Starfighter/Planet Endor from Series 4.

Although I can’t say how things will fare with Series 3 and 4 at this point (leaving me room for a future evaluation), I can say however those appear to be yet another nice collection of winners! My picks for quick gainers are the Republic Attack Cruiser/Coruscant from Series 3 and Tantive IV/Alderaan from Series 4. Nothing wrong about the rest of them; all will be good performers in due time. In my opinion, Series 4 offers the best selection of spaceships and Planets altogether.

In conclusion, I have found scant few negatives in my evaluation for the 1st and 2nd series of the Stars Wars Planets line. Surprisingly enough, the Naboo Starfighter had performed exceedingly well right out the gate than every other one and could once again later on. While I can’t say I’m surprised with Sebulba’s progress, I must admit the alien has done better than I would have thought initially. The Death Star has managed to keep a steady value (though close to retail) regardless of the absolutely ludicrous amount of listings. If given the chance to grow, it should produce some nice returns. I find it amusing how the AT-ST is performing nicer than even the symbolic X-Wing and at the same time disappointed with the current standing of Bespin’s Cloud Car though I have a feeling it will perk up eventually.

After much research across the net by reading and skimming through numerous reviews and opinions, emotions towards the Planet sets have been very reassuring from a number of age groups. Seldom have I found anything negative or the opposite.

Despite all of these good points, the real question that matters remains.
Are they worth investing?

To which I can reply with great certainty.
Yes.

Their broad appeal, included features, and affordable price point offers something for everyone. First off, they are based on the most popular theme of Star Wars. Second, the included mini-builds are display ready designs able to fit in any size location and easy enough for a child to put together and play in a matter of moments, and don’t forget the exclusively printed plague that comes within every set. Third, each one features a minifigure with unique printing and/or army building qualities and practically everybody loves collecting them. Fourth, there is nothing else on the shelves quite like the Planets themselves. These truly are one of kind conversation pieces molded purely for decoration or a make shift storage container if need be.

While I wouldn’t go too off the handle by saying they will gain ridiculously large amounts in value, I will say each Planet could go as high as three times retail at some point in time. A select few may possibly go even higher than that much like how the Naboo Starfighter/Naboo once had strangely enough.

Since the entire line is still relatively in its stage of infancy, now would be the best time to invest in the starting Series’ if you have not done so already before things get too far down the road and we are looking forward to the release of Series 9 and 10 in 2016 or Series 17 and 18 in 2020 (assuming the line manages to continue for that long of course). The returns may not be the same from a typically larger set but if you factor in the inevitable discounts on an item which was already low cost to begin with, collective gains earned could stack up quite nicely.

If you did manage to stay awake long enough to reach the end of my article, I thank you.
Oh, and “May the force be with you”.

I think there are many types of investors and many types of investing strategies that those investors use. We all look at different sets in different ways and I think that 80% of Lego sets or more have an investor somewhere that believes in them. If you have read any of my stuff, you know I am one of the more safe investors out there – I don't invest thousands and thousands of dollars so I try not to reach with any of my buys. Yes, I may not cash in on sets like the Zombies, but I am more interested in as close to guaranteed growth as possible. Because of this I wanted to really take a look at a set that I think is possibly the most safe investment out there, even at retail price: The Monster Fighter's Haunted House 10228. The Monster Fighters theme is one that was met with a little skepticism at first. I think most people thought there was definitely a market out there for Halloween themed sets, but in looking at the lineup, some of us wondered how well these would take off since there really isn't a central story behind everything. However, after the resultant popularity of the sets and the fact that The Zombies 9465 is sitting at somewhere near 1 Billion percent CAGR, that has been put to rest. There is obvious growth potential in the secondary market for this theme. When I first looked at the them, I honestly wondered about several of the sets. I had seen them all in Walmart and had thought they were kind of cool looking, but nothing really stood out. The Vampyre Castle set was somewhat tempting, but again, I didn't have that familiar theme or factor that really pulls me towards any of the sets like Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. I had heard there was another set in the theme – one that was Hard to Find. These were coming out right when I was just getting to into Legos, so I didn't understand much about Hard to Find items and how scarce they are. I happened to go to Disney World shortly thereafter and had a chance to see this set in a display case. I was amazed. I am absolutely not a Halloween fan. I don't mind the culture of it, but I hate dressing up and I am not really into giving out candy and going to parties. I think haunted houses are aright, but nothing that I see and have to go in. But this set just floored me when I saw it. The incredible detail and the fact that the set just shines when it is displayed. Your eyes are absolutely drawn to it. I went back after this and shortly later found Brickpicker. I started to research other's feelings on the Haunted House and have really studied the history of secondary investment winners. Now, looking at this set compared with everything else out there right now, I can't see a set that will come close to matching it in growth potential. Yes, the Zombies will continue to grow, but as a smaller set, it most likely has a ceiling. This set doesn't have much of one in my opinion. So, I decided to do an in depth article about the set and go as deep as we can to really look at its investment potential. A note before hand: I would love to do a picture review/build of this set, but I only have a few at this time and I have not broken any open to build. I may soon though. First off, let's look at everything the set offers according to Lego: The crooked Haunted House is home to the scariest ghosts and monsters. Tremble in fear as you open the gate, go weak at the knees as you step onto the porch and gasp in horror at the fireplace, kitchen, office, folding staircase, bedroom, potion room, music room and collection of other creepy objects. Dare you enter the Haunted House?!

• Add to your LEGO® Monster Fighters Collection with the first official LEGO® Haunted House!
• Includes 6 minifigures: 2 glow-in-the-dark ghosts, Vampyre, Vampyre's Bride, Zombie chef and butler
• Features unique ‘crooked’ design featuring boarded up windows and working front gate.
• Haunted House opens to reveal detailed interior with 3 floors.
• First floor features fireplace that swings open and displays a ship in a bottle on the mantle.
• Cook up a ghoulish meal with the Zombie chef in the kitchen complete with old-style stove, jars and table!
• Write letters from the Vampyre’s haunted office!
• Pull the lever hidden in the chimney to release the drop down staircase and access the top floor!
• Top floor features gramophone, records and newspaper LEGO® elements.
• Customize the Haunted House with new stickers for wall hangings, spider webs and curtains!
• Measures 15.4” (39cm) high, 9.4” (24cm) wide and 7.5” (19cm) deep

Just looking at the description and picture itself, what do we see that really screams winner about this set? Detail! It is insane! I am sure a lot of you are like me and have noticed that over the history of Lego sets, one thing that Lego does really well is find ways to improve details of a set. The easiest way to look at this is to examine the remakes inside the Star Wars themes. Most of the remakes are tremendously more detailed than their older counter-parts. This set represents the pinnacle of that detail. Just looking at the outside of the house, it is amazing. The fence is so crisp and real looking. The building looks like a model. My father was into model trains and we used to build modular buildings like this that were hard plastic. This looks like one of those. It is hard to tell from farther than a couple of feet that it is Lego. The outside of the house is smooth and the colors are perfect. The wood across all the windows and the shutters hanging off really show this set off. The wood bricks are very realistic – I recently built the Orc Forge and was really impressed with the wood bricks in it, and this set has more than 10! But Lego, in their infinite wisdom, does even more for us. The house itself has rooms – It opens up! The chef's kitchen with the pot and the snake is just tremendous. But I think it's the smaller details that set the set apart. In the kitchen, there is a bottle and a Lego jar along with a stove and a pot on that. There is also a large spider web in the corner. In another area there is a tiny record player and the set comes with another mini Lego record. In the bedroom, there is a chest along with the headboard and there are torches on the walls and a plant in the corner. The set also comes with several bottles with an assortment of items inside them including bones. Details like this just don't come in other toys.:    

On the left hand side, there is a staircase leading up form the first floor to the second. I really love the ladder, though, on the second floor that goes up through a hole in the floor to level 3. There are pictures all over the walls as well. The outside of the house is an amazing display piece while the inside is a giant play-set:

The minifigures are tremendous as well. The Lord Vampyre and Vampyre's Bride and the two Ghosts are all great, but they are found in other sets in the line so they don't add a ton of value to this set. However, there are two exclusive minfigures in the Zombie Butler and Zombie Chef. The Butler is my favorite of the two. I think he is amazing looking. He will really be the popular and expensive minifigure from this set. The Frankenstein-like head is great and the Butler getup with the vest and white shirt is perfect. The tray and the bottle and wine glass make the character as well. Without knowing the name of the figure you know it's a zombie butler!

The Zombie chef is not far behind. The gray face is really mesmerizing and the nasty green grin really sets it off. Of course he has the normal Chef attire, but it is covered in blood. This minifigure is going to be extremely popular as well.

On top of this, this set is a tremendous value at $180. $.09 PPP is exceptional on a Hard to Find set and especially one of this caliber. Most of the best PPP ratios are in sets like the Tower Bridge and Taj Mahal that have 4-5K pieces. At 2000 though, there aren't too many sets that meet this standard and are still this impressive (really R2D2 is the only obvious one that comes to mind). So why does all this make us think the set will be a good investment? If you look at the best gaining large (2000+) sets of all time, what do most of them have in common? Detail! Go back and look at the modulars that have retired like the Green Grocer 10185 and Market Street 10190. How about 10179 the Millennium Falcon? How about the 10196 Grand Carousel? What do all of these have in common? Crazy, insane detail. I think this set fits right up there with all of these. But this set has even more. Lego has really started, in the last several years, to try to make larger display sets that also have a play-set value like 10188 the Death Star and 10236 The Ewok Village. This set is really one of kind in the fact that it is a large modular and a play-set. There is really something for everyone. Unless you hate Halloween and haunted houses, how could you not like this set? For the record, my wife hates being scared and therefore hates haunted houses. She loves this set. Looking at it I can't find a bad thing about it. So, I think I have driven in how cool this set is – What can be compare it to? Well that is the hard part. It is one of a kind. But that only helps it as nothing can rival it. The only really good comparisons we have are 2 retired modulars: Both have done incredibly well. And again – these were just really display sets. This one has a play-ability aspect as well. There aren't a lot of kids that have all the modulars. This set fits right with the modulars, too. Take a look at this picture of them together with the Haunted House:
Looking at these, and the modulars in general, each new set has had about 10% less CAGR. Market Street is sitting at around 57% CAGR, and then the most recent in the Green Grocer is sitting at 34%. I for one, can not imagine that the Haunted House wont match the Green Grocer. But to be safe, we can say our expected lower limit is 30%. Looking at the two comparison sets, and what this brings to the table, I think this set could come close to hitting 50% depending on all the factors we will discuss below. It will be tough to match Market Street, but this set has an insane amount of potential. So I think most people could look at the set and say “Yes it is really cool” and “Yes other modular-like sets have done really well”. So what else really sets this set apart? What is the set's X-factor? Here we go:

• Monster Fighter theme popularity – This may not be the most popular theme of all time, but Lego has nothing else like it. Every year, Lego comes out with another popular movie theme, or another Castle theme, and more Star Wars sets, but this is simply a unique theme. And because of that, getting one of these sets is not enough. You can't buy a Vampyre Castle, and just throw it in between all your Star Wars and Lord of the Rings sets. You need more Halloween sets to go with it. I really feel there will be tons of people out there that will buy a few of these sets in the theme – and have to get them all. Chances are, this theme is one and done as well!
• Halloween is popular – A lot of people aren't like me and really enjoy Halloween. I sold a couple of Monster's Fighters sets recently to a woman on Ebay who communicated with me a little bit after it. She asked me if I had a Haunted House or The Zombies. I apologized and said no I didn't have any for sale. She wrote back that she had never liked Legos a lot, but loved Halloween and just had to have these. She wanted to collect all of theme and bring them out every year for Halloween. My wife mentioned the same thing.
• A lot of people will buy Monster Fighters sets and not know this one exists. I live in a moderately Large town and I am from a very Large town. I have searched every Walmart and target in these towns and have never seen this set there. I think there will really be a good number of people that will not know this set exists until it's gone.
• Lack of discounts – As investors, our number one rule is “Don't pay retail”. Well, that isn't an 100% rule. Would you pay retail now for a 10179 Falcon, or any of the modulars I mentioned? This set has seen literally almost 0 discounts. This is evidenced by the fact that this set is selling for over retail on Ebay. I remember a couple of $10 discounts and the possible Amazon mistake that led to a few selling for $135. Other than that, this set has seen none. I think this is only good for the secondary market because less of them have been sold in bulk. I don't think there have been many people that have seen a discount and bought 20 Haunted Houses.
• Exclusive minifigures are zombies. Enough said.

So with all of this, I have to give a real estimate on it's CAGR right? Earlier, I gave you my limits of worst case 30% to best case 50% CAGR. I honestly think this set will at least see 40% CAGR after 5 years, assuming it retires at the end of the year. With everything I have mentioned, I feel it will be a bit of a disappointment if it doesn't. I am planning on building it in the near future and I have no doubt my projections may improve. It will fit right in with the other modulars in terms of growth. At 40% CAGR, that would make this set worth $968.08. I think it has potential to even do better than that. The set is one of a kind and I think its growth in the next several years will be one of a kind. If you do not have one of this set or more, what are you thinking? I don't think any current set right now has anywhere near the potential this set has. I have trouble everyday buying other sets because I feel like I should put everything I have into these. I think hell will freeze over before this set doesn't do well in the secondary market. I plan to buy as many more as I can afford and I will buy them at retail if I have to. This set is worth that. If you are waiting for a deal, look at those projections again. Is a $10 or $20 discount worth risking missing out on a set with this kind of potential? Sure, 40% CAGR in the current investor and reseller-full market is a little insane. But if anything currently out there has the insane detail, the insane play-ability, the insane popularity, and the insane potential to match it – it's the Haunted House. Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading! [ReviewAZON name="LEGO 10228 Haunted Mansion" id="1" display="inlinepost" asin="B0095ZMTE6" trackingid="brickpicker-20" country="" width="200px" float="left" imagetop="10px"] [phpbay keywords="lego 10228" siteid="1" sortorder="BestMatch" minprice="150.00" templatename="default" paging="true"]

The Millennium Falcon is one of the most iconic ships in the Star Wars movies and it is personally one of my favorite ships. Unfortunately, I cannot afford to buy the 10179 (yet...) so I was ecstatic when they produced a large play-set model to sustain my Star Wars fantasies until I can get the big one.

I have been storing this set for a while, so I was really excited to get one out and build away. And what better way to display that than to take pictures of the set and do some investment analysis? I have 5 more of these, so I hope the build and research works out well so I am inline to make money on my investment.

First up, the box. I generally have not liked the newer Star Wars boxes and, while this one is decent, I don't see anything about it that screams “Buy Me!”. It is fairly large which is enticing, but other than that it is just a picture of the set with some small pictures in the back ground. On the other hand, the Falcon doesn't really need a lot of fanfare – it brings its own.

The largest set I have built to date is 9516 Jabba's Palace which is slightly over 800 pieces. When I opened this box, this set just felt huge:

How big are these 5K piece sets??? As I was starting to sort through the bags, it really threw me off. I figured there would be 10-15 bags. I was confused very quickly to see that there were several bags that had the same number on them:

Like I said, I have never built a set this big so maybe this is normal. This meant I had to open them all at the same time and pour them into a pile ( I can't stand not having pieces available). Unfortunately, this makes it a lot harder to try and find some of the smaller pieces. After pouring out the 3 bag 1's, there are 300-400 pieces on my carpet.

First, we get to go through the minifigures though. There are no unique minifigures in this set, but I did not have a Darth Vader yet so I was really excited about him. I really liked how they did his head in gray. I guess I should have expected it, but it was surprising to see since all the minifigure heads are pretty close to the same until you attach their hair-hats.

Put on his helmet and I swore I heard the Imperial March in the background.

Chewy is up next. I really like the figure, but I have 3 or 4 of these already so it was a little boring. I feel like at some point they could do him a little differently.

Han is next. His outfit is the same from several other sets, but I really love the smirk. I think they had to of been looking at an actual picture of that Harrison Ford smirk.

Leah is next with her white garb and hair buns. Again looking at pretty much the same minifigure from other set. The Leah in the Jabba's Palace was a lot more fun.

Obi Wan is the next minifigure. He is another main character I only have one of. The hat and cape are done really well. The face gives off the old, but wise look as well:

Last, but definitely not least is Luke. He is a duel outfit minifigure. You have your normal everyday Luke:

And then your training Luke:

On to the tremendous amount of pieces sitting in front of me. The bottom part is the base of the ship and holds up pretty well. It is mostly bigger flat pieces held together by 2X4s and 2X8s. There is a slot for an escape hatch as well as spot for a walkway to get up the ship. Nothing crazy exciting in the first bag, but nothing too repetitive either.

You can see form the bottom of the ship the hatches and how the bottom is patched up. I was impressed how well the base of it stayed together.

Moving on to bag 2 and we have a lot more fun pieces. This is filling out the inside of the set with all the little toys and gadgets for the characters to use inside the Falcon. There is the control board with two seats. You also have the chess-like round table game that they were playing in the movie with seats around it. There are also several other little sets, tubes and boxes around the set to really add a lot of detail. Since this is supposed to be a play set, these are key to the set's success. Kids want to have easy ways to use their imagination. I enjoyed this bad quite a bit because of all the little unique pieces:

Here is a picture of the console:

Bag 3 is the opposite. It is very repetitive and tedious. In this section you are creating the back and mid-sides of the ship that are between the base and the dome-like top of the ship. The build is not necessarily bad, but since it is round, you create the same 2X6 block of pieces in slightly different ways until you have enough to go all around the ship. The problem with this is that they are all just a little different. With repetitive builds, I like being able to make 4 or 5 of the same thing at the same time to save page turning, etc. Unfortunately, all of these were different so they had to be done one at a time:

And now we add the booster on the back of the ship:

May not look as good as 10179, but it isn't a $300 lattice piece right? One weird little thing a ran into was a couple of pages in the book still connected together. It is pretty late at night while I am putting so I won't lie about the fact that I may have spent 5 minutes trying to figure out if there was some secret way to open up a centerfold or something.

The next bag was another accessory and touch-up bag. You added onto the side of the ship where the small cabin is on one side. It also included solidifying the middle section of the ship for all of the outside dome pieces to connect to.

It also included putting on the ship entrance walk-way on the bottom and the guns. They look pretty cool and spin around. There are also feet so that it doesn't sit directly on the ground:

Second to last bag and it's a big one. This one is a lot like bag 3 with the repetitive builds. This includes all the dome pieces separately. There are a couple of places where you could build parts a the same time so it wasn't quite as bad. I was surprised, but there is no way to actually connect these pieces together. I knew the ship itself opened, but I thought there would be a way to really close it up. It looked good, but as you can tell from the picture, it was hard to get all the pieces to fit down flush. As a display piece for me, I would have liked it just a little bit cleaner.

You can also see the satellite and the other set of turrets on the top:

The last bag is very small. It is the front wedge pieces for the ship along with the side cabin for Han. It was about the size of a normal smaller set's bag, so it was a good switch up from the huge amount of pieces all the other bags had.

The set itself is really impressive. Even though it has 4.5 times less pieces than the UCS model, it is still huge! It barely fits on my shelf that is a foot deep. I really think the detail is great. Sometimes a set being a play-set is better for display because you have a lot of extras.

I will say I noticed that some of the parts popped off pretty easily. Inside where you are really supposed to play with the set and minifigures, the set is really solid. However, if you try to fly it around (not that I did that), it is really easy to knock some of the smaller pieces off.

Still a very impressive and pleasing set and a good build. I have no doubt it will continue to be a very popular set and will be an investment winner (as we will discuss below):

It's investment time! This set should be really easy for us to make a good prediction on. There are two pieces of this set's potential that I can see as relevant: How have the UCS remake play-sets done? And How have the other Falcons done? The one thing to pay attention to is: with the other falcons, is there anything close enough to make this seem like a non-unique remake?

Quickly, by UCS play-set I mean a set that is a slight remake of an older UCS set but it is much smaller and includes more extra parts for playing along with more minifigures.

So what sets match this?

Well, I don't want to rehash too much widely available information, so I would suggest that if you haven't checked out FCBarcelona101's article on UCS Play-sets, do it now:

http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/4/entry-227-star-wars-ucs-playset-edition/

I want to pull two sets from that article that I think best compare to this set. This is the 10198 Tantive 4 and the 6211 Star Destroyer:

10198: 9.59% CAGR
6211: 17.17% CAGR

None of those sets blew their original UCS set out of the water, but they were both pretty solid and seem to still be steadily growing thought hey have both been retired for several years. Looking at the two, I think the Falcon best compares to 6211 because the 10030 Star Destroyer is really expensive so people buy the smaller one and I think the same thing will happen with this set. When people have a good alternative to a $2500 set, that is a good thing for the smaller set's growth.

Now, how have the other Millennium falcons done?

7190: 663 pieces, $99 retail, 6.89% CAGR, 137% ROI
4504: 985 pieces, $99 retail, 1.63% CAGR, 15% ROI
10179: 5195 pieces, $499.99 retail, 31.81% CAGR, 422% ROI
7778: 356 pieces, $39.99 retail, 16.34% CAGR, 83% ROI
 

Besides 4504, our data looks pretty good. 7190's CAGR is only about 7%, but it has been around almost 15 years, so that it expected. 4504 does scare me though. Looking at it, it is not a lot different from this set. It has the sections that open and the little play-set area inside. It had 5 minifigures that were pretty normal characters as well.The 7965 has a little bit on it with a few extra minifigures and having a more sleek design. It is also about 300 pieces bigger. This is still fairly problematic, though, and a reason why I wouldn't go crazy on this set.

I think in the end it will experience solid gain. This set has been really popular while it has been out and should retire at the end of the year. I would guess a safe CAGR would be 12.5% after 5 years. That would put this set at $252.28 and give everyone a nice solid gain. I would definitely recommend avoiding this set at retail, but picking it up at the $105-$110 range will be very solid and should allow you to double your money at that 5 year mark (3ish years after retirement).

All in all though, the set is great and I would definitely recommend building it if you can. It is a really nice, large display piece and a good sub-in if you don't have the UCS set. Don't expect this set to put up the same numbers as the 10179, but I wouldn't bet on it to lose. Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading!

I was recently lucky enough to pick up a Back to the Future Lego DeLorean on Ebay several days before it was released (for close to retail price!) and when I got it I couldn't help but open it. So I decided to write another review so those of you thinking about picking it up would know more about it and what to expect.

First off, the box is great. I love the darkness with the Delorean coming out of the light. The clock in the back ground is really cool looking too. Weirdly enough, this box opened up from the font which I had never seen with a Lego set. It was more like a toolbox or a kit. It was really great for pulling bags out, and when I got done it was much easier to put the leftovers away I it. The box also felt like it was made of something more sturdy than the normal Lego boxes. I may display the box behind the set because it looks so good.

BUY THIS SET NOW ON LEGO SHOP @ HOME!!

The back of the box was also impressive as it had pictures of the different customizations and the license plates and of course the Flux Capacitor.

It was tough to pop It open, but I just had to build this set as Back to the Future is one of my all-time favorite movies.

This set is only a 401 piece set, and it looked pretty average pulling it out of the box. No pieces that really draw attention to themselves. But it's a DeLorean, so I am not complaining.

The bags aren't numbered. I am not exactly sure why, but this being my first set I have ever put together without numbered bags, I feel like I am going to be searching for pieces quite a bit. It makes you appreciate how big a deal numbered bags are to sets.

The instruction booklet is really impressive. I don't have too many collector's series or exclusive sets, but this book is the best one I have ever see. It's a very think paperback cover and inside it has a ton of Back to the Future specific information.

The book is also in a very slick black. Things really stand out on the page. I think you could even display the instruction booklet if you wanted to as it matches the impressiveness of the box:

Because there aren't separate bags to this set, I am taking a few minutes every time I feel like I am at a decent point and taking a picture to show the process. I just decided to dump everything into a pile and figure it out that way. I can't stand wondering if my pieces are still in a bag somewhere.

Ha! First, we have the minifigures. Number 1 is the good old “Doc”.

Of course, I had to put on his scared face because all of the minifigures in my room are somewhere between nervous and freaked-out terrified. The white hair and white cloths really make him stand out a lot. I love the green undershirt and the stop watch around his neck as well.

The only other minifigure in the set is Mr. Michael J. Fox, or “Mary McFly” as we knew him in the movie. His face is a little more nervous than scared. He, of course, has the puffy red vest and the blue jeans. The skateboard is a really nice touch and I think it adds quite a bit of play-ability to the set.

It is time to start the car (Get it? Time! and "Start the car" On fire!). The first little bit is just putting together the frame for the bottom of the car. It is pretty simple piece building and has nothing really out of the ordinary:

Moving along, most of the build is staying very simple since we are just building up the frame of the car from the ground up. You can see in the below pictures that the peach-ish pieces are suspended for the four wheels so they can fold up and in. I always loved when the Delorean flew, so I am really happy the wheels aren't stuck like a normal car's wheels.

The next little part of the build is finally leading us to the frame of the car. You build up the front and the back while leaving room for the seats in the middle. The steering wheel is installed along with all the little gadgets and dials that are on the dashboard of the time machine. Then the giant exhaust systems on the back of the car. I really liked these and thought they turned out really well. They are like minifigure legs that are facing the same way and pushed into a 2X2 holder back to back. This causes them to not sit flush and therefor look perfect for the Delorean as you can see below:

Quickly after, we get to the dime-piece of the car itself: The Flux Capacitor. I was so glad this wasn't a sticker! I cannot put stickers on for anything and I didn't want to ruin the most important piece of the set!

Finishing up the frame of the car, it is really starting to take shape. The set really captures the box-iness and the bulky-ness of the DeLorean (if you have ever seen it in real life).

Now for the folding doors. Though they look good, this system is a little flimsy. If you don’t carefully open them, it is very easy to accidentally pull the set apart. Not a great + for playability. However, the display value is very good.

As cheesy as it is, I really love the fender. The small exhaust pipes look good and the license-plate is great with its “Outatime”. Corny, but perfect for the set.

http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/uploads/imgs/bp_1375320916__img_1024.jpg

As I am getting close to the end of the set, there are quite a lot of pieces left which I figured must be for the customization. There are several different options you can go with to customize the car. First, it comes with reddish wheels you can sub in for the non-flashy gray ones as I show below:

It also has the option for a stand to display the set on. I thought this was perfect because now I can display it with the wheels folded in:

You can also add the “Mr Fusion Home Energy Reactor”. Everyone loves extra pieces, so I figure “why not?”

The best customization is the souped up engine. I had to put this one on. Instead of just the normal closed hood, it has the engine protruding out of the hood. I think it really adds a little variety to the set:

So what customization did I go with? I loved the red wheels, so that happened along with the reactor and the engine. Overall, I think it is really impressive:

The black long pipe-like pieces going along the side really make the car stand out. The set itself is pretty impressive for a small set. I will say again, though, it is really brittle. It took me four or five tries to have it perfectly put together as the pieces that make up the cabin of the car and the pipe pieces constantly come apart. I really am leaning towards this not really being a great play-set.

The car itself is really solid, but all the add-ons don't stay together through much roughness at all. Here is a pic of the bottom of it:

Here is a picture of how I decided to display it:

So, can we make any informed decision about the investment potential of the set? Let's take a look:

First, there have been 3 previous sets in the CUUSOO series. Only one of them is retired, so it is going to be hard to get a good idea of what the set will do, but we can at least see if it is something you should monitor:

21100 Shinkai 6500 Submarine

Retail: $49.99
Current Value: $229.33
CAGR: 66.16%
ROI: 350%

21101 Hayabusa

Retail: $49.99
Current Value: $65.86
CAGR: 31.75%
ROI: 32%

21102 Minecraft Micro world

Retail: $34.99
Current Value: $47.55
CAGR: 35.90%
ROI: 35%

Like I said, not a ton of data. The only one that is retired is the submarine, and it didn't do too bad... just 66% CAGR! That is extremely impressive and really sets the bar high for these other sets. Hayabusa came out the next yer and, despite being available at retail price, is selling on Ebay above retail already sporting a 31.75% CAGR. If it retires at the end of the year, I can't imagine it would for some reason go down!

The Minecraft set is right there with it. Honestly, I think the Minecraft set could do even better that these other two because you can't just buy one of them. If all three of these continue on this pace, this will be close to unheralded performance for the first three set sin a theme.

So how does the DeLorean compare? Well, I think it is the best looking set of the series and will appeal to more people than any of the others. Back to the Future was a tremendous movie, and one that will never die. Parents show their children and it is passed on generation to generation. Shows like Robot Chicken and Family Guy still reference the movie even though it was created almost 30 years ago!

I think that the fact that this movie is older only helps this set. Yes, some children may not know it – but parents are going to buy it for their children because they want it. Other parents will buy it for themselves because they want it. The set is a perfect price as well – a value at less than $.10 per piece. It is well done and very display worthy.

It is hard to really give a prediction before the set is really widely available in a retail setting, so my advice is: watch this set. Pick up one here and there and store it away. And definitely build one. It is a perfect 1 hour build and the set is very impressive. You don't want to be caught in this set's retirement without one. Judging by the others, this set may surely fly away with profits. And there isn't going to be any way to go back in time to stop it.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

Thanks for reading!

For my next visual review/investment article, I am doing one of my favorite sets (I finally got one to open!) 5887 Dino Defense HQ. Now I am going to warn you before hand, I am a mega dinosaur fan and one of my favorite movies of all time is Jurassic Park. So this article has no less than 257 references to the movie. So I would suggest you watch it, maybe several times, before reading this article.

Hold on to yo' butts!

So, first of all, the box is incredible. I only saw this on the shelves for a short period of time before it was gone, but I can't imagine many kids walked past it without wanting it. The T-Rex is very intimidating on the front with the helicopter flying overhead. I wanted it the moment I saw it! Make sure if you ever sell this on Ebay, you get a couple of good closeups of the box. I swore I heard the Jurassic park theme in the background the first time I looked at it. I mean what have they got in there, King King?

Opening the box, it is only 793 pieces, but it feels huge. Like at least over 1000. There are several reasons for this as you will see later on: he dinosaurs, the fencing, and some of the bigger plane pieces. I think its really worth the retail price of $99 (Luckily I got this one on clearance!). This is one of the reasons I think it has done so well in retirement so far. It could have been $120 retail and people would have bought it.

Looking at it, I immediately wanted to open the T-Rex, but unfortunately the instructions told me I had to wait a while. As much as I wanted to just pop it open anyway, I decided to wait. Bag 1 did at least have two minifigures and a dinosaur, so it is not like I wasn't getting my money's worth. Minifigure 1 is the pilot. He is pretty cool looking with the goggles and his painted on hunting gear.

The next minifigure is “Josh Thunder”. Supposedly, he is the main protagonist of the Dino theme and is exclusive to this set. He has a really cool painted on outfit with the straps and bags on his legs and the walkie-talkie. Of course, he also has a nice green sash because we can assume he is into style, no matter whether he is out on a date or hunting dinosaurs. I thought it was cool that he had a gruff look about him with the beard and mustache and his facial expression:

Now, finally a dinosaur! This was a raptor and it was so well done. It's about two and half times as big as a minifigure itself and looks just like the ones in Jurassic Park. It's got the beady smile when you open it's mouth and the claws are definitely really intimidating. It really stands up well, too which is a big problem with these types of minifigures:

Clever girl...

So you get the full size of the minifigure Raptor, here is a picture of the Raptor and Josh Thunder who has clearly tamed the large beast. I really like the green scope on the gun as well – although the shade of green is a little weird and the scope itself looks like a syringe. Still though, it's a nice touch for people using their imagination when playing with the set:

The rest of bag 1 is a Dino jeep which is pretty cool looking – I really like the stickers they use in this set. It all stays within the Dino color scheme. Anything with flick missiles is pretty cool, and I think it is awesome to have one on the jeep itself, making it a great vehicle to hunt dinosaurs with. The front bumpers are pretty cool as well and give it a very rugged look. I wanted to put a minifigure in it and say “Must go faster! Must go faster!”.

As usual Lego adds that touch of detail that others would miss with the box of supplies on the back of the truck as well as the holders for walkie-talkies. It even comes with a couple of tools to sit in the supply box:

Here is all of bag 1 together. This would be pretty good as just a set itself. The way the booklets are, it makes it seem as if this was a side set. Book 1 is just for this and is much smaller. Book 2 and 3 are for the actual Dino Defense HQ:

Bag 2 gives us a few more minifigures. The driver is up first. He is pretty cool and I love that he has the Dino theme patch on his shirt. Another thing I loved was the dual faces, with one of them being a scared face. Scared faces are always what I leave on my minifigures:

Sue Montana is the last minifigure, She is well done and really fits into the theme well to get a female presence. As they said in Jurassic Park “Dinosaur eats man...Women inherits the Earth!”. I love her scared face as it has a little more hesitance than fear on it. Maybe a touch of nervousness as well:

The rest of bag two includes the helicopter and a supply chest that holds the two guns and two helmets. The helicopter is pretty nice and is sturdy – again this could be its own little set as well. The blades spin really well and it has two flick missiles which is always a great added touch for playability. It feels like it's the right size as well. The supply chest is a nice added touch for playability as well if the play-ee wants to put away the guns and have the figures fly the helicopter or ride in the jeep. I did think it was weird you don't open the pilot up with the Helicopter, but maybe both the pilot and the driver can do both:

And Finally! We have a T-Rex! So, if you read the first article I did in this manner on the Rancor Pit, then you know that I was a little excited about the Rancor itself. This pretty much matched it. Until I actually got it out, I didn't really understand the size of this thing. It is absolutely massive. The arms and legs all move around and lock in place. The figure stands up great and can be put in many different positions without having a problem:

Obviously, this minifigure is going to be sought after because of the popularity of the T-Rex itself and because of how impressive the minifigure is. But, what really helps is even though there is another set in the theme with a T-Rex, it is a different color. I think this is really going to help the value because everyone that gets one will want the other one so that they have a set of them.

Before we move on, I think it's important for us to run this T-Rex through the Legendary Minifigure test:

• Be huge –5 times a normal minifigures

Check! He is absolutely massive and to good scale if you compare with Jurassic park.

• Have 10 or more pieces

He only has 7, but I think we can give him a pass because I had to actually put the claws on the Rancor and the T-Rex's claws are already on. I am giving him a check on this point.

• Be able to eat a normal minifigure

Hmmm... let's see:

Um... yeah, check.

• Be a Rancor

So I think I need to adjust this one to “Be a Rancor or a Tyrannosaurus Rex”. It's a legendary minifigures and I think it is right up there with the Rancor as one of the best minifigures of all time!

Now on to the rest of the set. Bag 3 is the front gate of the defense headquarters. The sides are pretty sturdy and I really like the round feel of the corner areas. It makes this set sit up really well. The fence in the middle is really well done. I love the spikes on the top and there are signs in the middle that have a voltage sign on them. The detail is really amazing:

I thought the build was pretty fun in bag 3, but evidently my dog didn't feel the same way:

Bag 4 takes the fence and adds even more detail to it. The bag includes an attachment for the top of both sides of the fence. On the right side, it has a lookout area along with a crane arm and a net to catch dinosaurs with. Along with that, you get another smaller dinosaur to catch in the net. This adds playability to the set, although I don't think the net could hold the other two dinosaurs. I don't know how Lego does this stuff:

The left hand side is a giant turret type system with a place for a minifigure to control it. It actually swings around and can aim and everything. Tons of playability. There are two flick missiles along with it. I don't have the full data for sets Lego has done with flick missiles, but I would have to say that this set has the most I think I have ever seen. 5 of them! Can't imagine anyone can find something wrong with that (except parents cleaning up after their children).

Bag 5 is pretty boring compared to what we have done so far. It is just the sides of the fencing for the headquarters extending to the back. I am really surprised as I am building this how well all of these pieces are engineered to stay together, even being fairly thin. When I was building Jabba's palace, I had a couple of issues with the parts properly staying together. Surprisingly this set has been very easy to build and keep together.

Bag 6 brings us the back of the headquarters and includes some of the bigger pieces. There are a lot of stickers in this set and as you can see from the picture below, there is a yellow door with the Dino logo on it. The Dino logo is also on the back of it. I think these really add something to the set. I like that the back also creates a little bit of a lookout, with railings to keep away the dinosaurs, so that children can play with the characters on the back of the fence area. As you can see, the set is almost done:

Bag 7 is the rest of the head quarter's back section, including a giant door (I was wondering how they got these huge dinosaurs in there. Again, the sides were very thin but stayed together very well and was very easy to build. As you can see, the sides have an indention for a pulley system for the door I am about to put in:

The last bag adds on to the top of the tower and finishes the doorway. The top of the tower is really detailed; it provides a glassed in lookout for the characters to use to watch the dinosaurs below. It also has a satellite on the side of it. We are assuming wherever this is, the characters don't have cell service.

In this step, the door gets put in as well being a large gate (again with the voltage sign on it). The pulley system to allow the door to go up and down is a hook and string. I really like this system better than some of the systems I have seen Lego use where you have to prop up doors that open vertically. The only negative I can see here is that the string was a little hard to properly tie and get put together. A child would definitely need a parent for this. Once it is put together, it is very easy to open and close by just twisting the pulley system.

Now its time to see it altogether. It is amazing! It is so all-around detailed and impressive, it really stands out when you walk into the room. The T-Rex is incredible and the fencing and tower make this stand out even more as he looks like he could take the whole thing down anytime he wanted. The Raptor fits in really well too. I think I am going to try and eventually hang the helicopter from the ceiling so I can get a better effect on the whole thing. Either way, Josh Thunder is going to seriously have his hands full with these beasts.

Investing wise, what do we think this set is going to eventually do? Ah, Ah, Ah! You didn't say the magic word!

Well, first of all, looking at this set as an investment is cheating a bit since it has been retired for about 6 months or so and has had some pretty incredible gains at a CAGR of 49.95%! So my analysis is going to look at whether or not it is a good investment from here on out.

Currently, it's new price is $149.95. So where can it go from here? Let's find a few sets to compare. We can use the following criteria:

• Dinosaur set including a T-Rex
• One of or the largest set in the series

I came up with the following sets, the first form the Dinosaurs theme and the second two from the popular Dino Attack theme.

6720 Tyrannosaurus Rex

10.95% CAGR with a current price of $34.76

Originally $9.99 – 250% return over retail

7471 Typhoon vs T-Rex

6.69% CAGR with a current Price of $117.47 (was around $150 in December)

Originally $69.99 – 68% return over retail

7476 Iron Predator vs. T-Rex

10.50% CAGR with a current price of 88.87

Originally $39.99 – 122% return over retail

So looking at these three sets, it is a bit surprising that this set has had around a 50% CAGR. On the other hand, these sets have all been around a while and we all know that Lego sets see their growth curve generally plateau within the first few years.

What I see in this data is the ceiling for return over retail. The T-Rex's all did really well. Before it's decline over the last 6 months, (which could be due to the popularity of the new Dino line hitting retirement) 7471 was above 2 times retail. 7476 is well above 2 times retail and 6720 is about 3.5 times retail. So this gives us a good idea for the ceiling of this set being at least 2 times retail and most likely greater. Right now it is at 1.5 times retail, so it still has some growing to go.

Also, this set really shot up quickly after retirement. Because of this, I think the stop in growth is going to be very slow. It would be very wild to see the growth line stop all of a sudden and go down to 10%. The above sets only show 10% because they have been around for 8 years or so.

There are some X-factors here though that really help us explain why this set shot up so quickly and why it will be a good investment over the next several years:

• There aren't a lot of these out there: This theme was popular, but nothing like some of the other themes like Star Wars and City. If you look at the data on Brickpicker, there have not been 30 of these sold in a month since February. Actually, there have barely been any months when 20 have been sold. But does this mean no one is buying them? No actually. I have been actively looking for this set on Ebay and there have barely been 20 listings a month (cutting out the unreasonable listings it at $300 or more). To compare, there are almost 50 10212 Imperial Shuttles sold on Ebay per month – a much more expensive set. This bodes well for the sets growth because there is limited quantity.
• The Dino theme characters: First, several of the characters have names like Josh Thunder and Sue Montana which makes theme more collectible. Secondly, every minifigure to this set is exclusive as Lego used different designs for pretty much every set. This really helps if someone picks up one of the sets and is enamored with it. They will want all of them (This is how I came to get Dino Defense – I bought one of the others and got hooked).
• The T-Rex is exclusive and looks incredibly more real than the T-Rex' in the last two Dinosaur themes. I think this will be sought after for quite awhile driving this set up in price. If you look at sold listings on Ebay, the T-Rex has gone for around $70 for a few months now. At a current price of $149.95, that means it's worth almost half the set!
• This set is by far the biggest in the series, and the biggest of any of the other series: If a person loves Dinosaurs and looks at all Lego has to offer, this set is for sure at the top!
• Relatively short run: This set was only around for a year. It came out in the beginning of 2012 and was gone by 2013. Just as we saw from the Ebay data, this set is not in great supply. As more and more are opened and set up, the price will go up more and more.
• The new Jurassic Park movie: There will be a new movie in the next couple of years, and if you ever never noticed, Jurassic Park is one of the best grossing movie series of all time. This movie will be viewed by young and old and especially will turn a new generation into dinosaur lovers.

So what does this mean for the set? Well, these two sets were above 10% CAGR at their peak a few years ago. Taking that as a scale, with all of the things we have talked about before, I think a safe bet would be that this set will see about 22.5% CAGR over 5 years (Honestly than would be over a half decline in CAGR over 4 years which is hard to believe. This is very conservative). So that means in 2017, we are looking at $275.85. This would go along with what we saw with the older sets being worth over 2 times their value.

So if you can get it this year for $150, is it worth it? Money wise, this means you would hold it for four years and sell it for $275.85 in 2017 achieving a ROI of 83% over 4 years, or a little over 20% per year. That's not too bad right? Adding to that, there are no more sets coming into the market to slow it down, there are no more Dinosaur themes on the horizon, and it's a known entity: it's already been a great gainer!

To me, this makes this set worth it if you can score a MISB one for $150. You don't want to spend your whole budget on them, but for those of us who like to wait and see what a set will do in retirement, this definitely seems to already look like a winner. I have found several of these in stores still on clearance as well which is just free money! I have this set in one of my searches on Ebay and whenever I see one for under $150, I grab it.

If anything, I think you could just grab the T-Rex as well. The first of our three comparison set's was just a T-Rex minifigure. It has been out for 12 years, but is still worth 3 times what it was sold for. It may as well be worth over $100 in a few years!

If you don't see this set as still worth the investment, believe me, you still need it. If you like dinosaurs at all, this is the pinnacle of Lego Dinosaur sets. And I would get it now while you still can for a decent price because I feel this set is only going up, up, up! What do you all think?

Oh, and remind me to thank John for the wonderful weekend.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

So I think it would be a little bit of an understatement to say that the Lego Lord of the Rings Orc Forge (9476) has caused a stir in the last couple of weeks. If you haven't been paying too much attention, here is the rundown of what happened:

• The Orc Forge goes to “retiring soon” status in the Lego Store in late June
• The Orc Forge Sells out in the Lego Store around the first week of June.
• About a week later, it sells out at Target.com (it is a target exclusive so now it is technically unavailable via retail.
• It comes back in stock on Target.com a few days later
• It sells out again about a day later
• It comes back in stock again on Target.com
• It sells out again another day later
• Several days later it comes back in stock again on Target.com
• Lego changes it to “temporarily out of stock” from “sold out” on the website.
• Slight panic ensues

This has mattered so much to everyone because there is a general consensus that this set will do really well after EOL. It is an exclusive, so there have been less made and bought than normal sets. It is also part of a theme in LOTR, that is expected to do really well – most likely match the Harry Potter series.

I have recently ordered 8 in the last several weeks as we have seen them sort of, almost, maybe go retired. I love LOTR, so I decided I wanted to pop one open and actually build it, And of course, write a review/investment article about it. For all the talk we have seen about this set, I really feel like no one has offered any first hand experience about how great, or not so great, the set is build and playing wise. Isn't that what really matters?

So once again, I am writing this for you as I put together the set. This one should be really fun as it is a perfect build – 363 pieces – it will most likely only take about an hour.

The box itself:

I think the box matters more to a Lego set's popularity than a lot of people think. You cannot take a good box for granted. Take a look at the first Tie Interceptor in the Lego SW theme – the box is more impressive than the actual set. Sure, people would probably buy a Lord of the Rings set if it was in an unmarked card board box, but these sets are for children. We know children have to see something spectacular on the box so that they run up to their parents and say “I want it, I want it”. I think this makes a big difference after EOL as well. When people see a sealed one and it looks impressive , it will influence their decision to buy it.

In this case, I really love the box. The Lord of the Rings boxes are all pretty good, but this one just has a lot going on. I love how they made the torches and the actual forge smoke and light up. They also have the rocky lava area in the background. On the right, they have all of the blue mist looking area that really stands out in contrast to the heat coming from the left side. The minifigures are all interacting with the Orc Forge as well, instead of just being shown up the side of the box. Plus you have the light brick, which one of the things that made me really want to buy the set. As well, the minifigure picture in the left bottom corner has a “Hard to Find” logo on it. This makes a lot of difference to the set in my eyes. When you say it is hard to find in your listing 2 years from now, you have something obvious to back it up.

Moving on, let's open it up.

Honestly, the Rancor Pit just has a few more pieces than this set and it looks a lot bigger. This was because it had such big pieces in it as well as the rancor itself. The Orc Forge feels a lot smaller for the same number of pieces, but it is $20 dollars cheaper so the value is still there.

First up out of the first bag is one of the Mordor Orcs. I love the Orcs and the other LOTR sets' lack of them really bodes well for this set. His face is really mean and nasty looking and the color of the Orc himself and the outfit is just right. This guy comes with the forge hammer, which is a nice change of pace for a hold item. I like weapons, and while this one can be used as one, I think it adds something for the more non-violent children who play with this set.

The second Mordor Orc is the same, but he comes with a shovel – again a practical piece instead of a weapon. There are plenty of weapons in the set, and with 4 Orcs, I think it gives the set some variety.

Alright – for the blocks part of bag 1. Most of it is pretty simple "ground-up" building. Luckily, we get to the piece I was waiting for pretty quick – the light brick. I wondered how they did it. I was assuming it was just a battery in the brick and that is exactly what it is. There is a button on the back of the brick that, when pressed, lights up the brick. As you can see from the picture below, it is very bright. I think this is an awesome idea in Lego's catalog of special pieces and I think it is really impressive for a single piece. Think of all the things they can do with these in future sets. Excellent for Play-ability.

The rest of the building is fairly simple, just outlining the rocks and building the forge itself. The fire coming out from around the pot is a really nice touch and because they are see-through as well, when you press the light, they really shine. I will say that part of the building was a little difficult. There are some trapezoid and slanted pieces that are only held together by one small 2x1 piece. These are not really secured until you put the top brown pieces on top of the rock-like pieces. This made it a little hard to keep it together. After putting the top pieces on, it still is not particularly stable. Not sure how else they could have done it, but I have a feeling that if it is played with in a rough manner, it may come apart.

I do really like the anvil shown above as well. It is 6 small pieces, but it makes all the difference to the Orc and his hammer. Though it is simple, it really looks pretty good matching up with the color of the forge itself.

The next bag brings us the other two minifigure Orcs. The first one up is Uruk-Hai. He is pretty awesome with the red mean face and the Orc shield and armor. I think the shield, sword, and Orc armor are all really well done. They are very shiny, more than you can really tell in the picture, and you get two full sets as well as two extra swords because of the Forge itself. I think these make it fantastic for Orc battle scenes and army building.

The other is the Orc, Lortz. Honestly, they show him with his long hair and just a sword, but he isn't that much different from the other Orcs – just a little redesign on the body an a brown head instead of green. No one is gonna argue with another Orc. I just wanted to dress him up in the armor like Uruk-Hai though.

The rest of bag 2 is not very much – a small sword cooling place and another base for the rest of the set.

The base piece on the right stays together a little better than the first one, which is good since it holds the majority of the sets weight. I do have to admit, I like the simple touch of the dark grey pieces as rocks and the little green slope pieces.

The last bag of the set is really the most fun, even though it has no minifigures. It includes the windmill-like piece with a string and hook that can carry a basket up to the top with all the metal pieces. The string is a little tough to tie, so I think that some children might have to have help with that. I think the pulley system is really cool looking though, and the basket actually looks wooden:

The rest of the parts include the stand for the metal to be pored on and the metal chute for it to slide down into the melting pot. I enjoyed the bricks that are made to look like wood. They give the set a nice touch and they aren't stickers. I don't have any ability to apply stickers properly so this is always a plus for me. The torches on the top of the set are really nice as well:

I really like the set as a whole. It is obviously not as impressive as Helm's Deep or Mines of Moria because it is smaller, but it is a very detailed small set for the right price. It also only took about 50 minutes to build, which is perfect in my eyes. Because of all the extra pieces and weapons, the set has a ton of play-ability. I really struggled trying to decide exactly how I wanted to display all the different extra little pieces because there is so much here. I decided to have the armor on both orcs and display the weapon cooling area in the middle with the Orc using the anvil on the right:

Here is a close up of the forge itself.

And one with it lit up:

The light brick makes this set. Absolutely excellent.

Investment time: Do my thoughts on it as an investment change? What do we have to compare it to?

Well, we don't have any retired Lord of the Rings sets to really compare it to, but I think the general consensus is that the theme will do really well. They have all sold really well, have not been on the shelves too long, and is from a very popular movie series that is recent. So instead, I decided to compare to it old Target Exclusives that have a comparable piece count and retail price. This chart is shown below:

This is definitely good news. With exclusives there are definitely good things and bad things that arise. On one hand, there are less of them made and less bought during production. On the other, they may not be as well known because no body ever sees them. This could be a problem in bigger themes too like Star Wars because there are close to a billion sets. But we still see here that the Pirate tank and the Republic Fighter Tank both still had some solid growth.

I think the Lord of the Rings theme is more comparable to the Coast Guard Platform and the Agents theme because there was a limited number of sets in the theme. People that liked the theme will definitely want to collect all the sets in the theme and it will be doable.In the Star Wars theme, it is not that doable.

Both the Coast Guard set and the Agents set saw fairly solid growth, with the Coast Guard set tripling in value. Where do we think the Orc Forge fits in? Well, currently it already shows a 37% CAGR which is wonderful. I think this representative of the people who may not have a Target in their area or a Lego store and buy off Ebay.

The build was really pretty good and I think most children could handle it. The play-ability with the set is off the chart and with the light brick and all the cool Orcs and weapons, I think the set's build and play-ability match right up with it's alleged investment potential.

This set has also not really seen a lot of sales, so I don't think there are tons of people out there who have 100s of these stashed away. I think once it finally does EOL, the value will steadily rise to about $80 after a year or so. For the more long term investment, I think it will see gains not quite a good as the Coast Guard set, but close since the theme is so popular. I expect about 25% CAGR after 5 years, which is a very low estimate. Honestly, I think it has the potential to do even better as more and more people find out there is another Lord of the Rings set. And these sets aren't done, so I think there will be more and more interest generated.

At 25% CAGR, the 5 year value would be $122.07 which would be a really nice 200% return over retail. If you do not have this set, don't worry about all the possibility of an extended run. I guarantee that all the mid level sets in the Harry Potter series sold more than this set and I think the current performance has shown how popular this set is.

As well, this set is not sold in every target. I have three in my city and none of them carried this in store. I think it is way too early to worry about how many will be sold. Honestly I don't think they will come back in stock at Lego and all of this will die down. Just don't be caught without one. In my opinion, this set obviously has really solid growth potential, and this could be a 40% or more CAGR set in a couple of years – it just has that type of potential with its exclusivity and the theme's popularity itself. It's not a bad thing it is still in stock – because you have plenty of time to get more of them!

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading!

In part 1 of this set, we examined the 5 smaller new Star Wars sets to look at their pros an cons and, most of all, their future investment potential. In the second part, I will be examining the larger sets in a little bit more detail. We all know that the larger Star Wars sets may not always be big gainers, but usually offer the most potential for a theme that has so many smaller sets. 3 of these are remakes, so we should have some good past data to pull from.

AT-TE 75019

From the Lego website:

Win the Battle of Geonosis™ with the AT-TE™!

As the Battle of Geonosis™ rages on, the clone commander boards the heavily armored LEGO® Star Wars™ AT-TE™ with Jedi Masters Mace Windu and Coleman Trebor. Take them deep into the battle with the AT-TE’s lifting handle and cool poseable legs. Open the cockpit to put a minifigure behind the wheel, then fire the 2 moving laser cannons and rotating top-mounted projectile cannon with dual flick missiles! Lift the top hatch for extra flick missiles! Climb the access ladder through the opening rear hatch to reach the cargo box with thermal detonators. Lead every LEGO Star Wars battle with this ultra-tough space tank. Includes 5 minifigures with weapons: Battle Droid™, Battle Droid Commander, Mace Windu, Coleman Trebor and a clone commander.

• Includes 5 minifigures with weapons: Battle Droid™, Battle Droid Commander, Mace Windu, Coleman Trebor and a clone commander
• Features lifting handle, poseable legs, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, moving front and rear laser cannons, rotating top-mounted projectile cannon with dual flick missiles, opening top hatch with extra flick missiles, and opening rear with access ladder and cargo box with thermal detonators
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers, 2 blasters and a blaster rifle
• Take aim with the laser cannons
• Load the projectile cannon and fire the flick missiles!
• Activate the thermal detonators
• Build awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Recreate an even bigger Battle of Geonosis™ with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75016 Homing Spider Droid™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™
• Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 16" (43cm) long and 11" (29cm) wide

My Analysis: This is a re-re-make, something that has happened a few times if you count different sized sets, but hasn't happened very much with 3 sets made almost exactly the same size. We will look at this in a minute, but for now, let's look at this set as if it's something completely new.

The set is pretty impressive and we all know that the AT-XX machines are very popular and have done well in the past. It has 5 minifigures. 3 are no-name army-building minifigures in the Battle droid, the battle droid commander, and the clone commander. The Mace Windu figure is a little better as it is an exclusive redesign. Mace is a pretty popular Star Wars character so the redesign will definitely help the value of the set later on. Colemon Trebor is a new minifigure which is exclusive to this set. He starred in episode 2 when he and Mace Windu were trying to rescue Amidala, Anikan, and Obi-Wan. He unfortunately died at the hands of Jango Fett, but did have enough of a role that he is a recognizable character to anyone who is a fan of the movie. His inclusion in this set definitely brings up the sets value.

Another stable in these Genosis themed sets have been flick missiles and this one doesn't disappoint with two of theme. It also has thermal detonators and thermal detonators. The missiles and lasers all rotate around, the legs move, and there is a cockpit that opens for a minifigure to drive the ship. There is also a back access into the vehicle with a ladder. This set clearly offers a lot of playability.

So how does it really differ from the old sets?

4482 Had only 4 minifigures and they were all clone troopers. There was really nothing special about the minifigures in the original. The AT-TE itself was obviously a little older looking. It did have an opening for the minfigures to fit inside on the top and the firing cannons did turn around, but there were no flick missiles and no back opening with a ladder. The set was 648 pieces with a $.11 price per piece retailing at $69.99.

7675 was released 5 years later in 2008. It has 6 minifigures. It has the rotating cannons as well as two missiles that actually fire as well. You can open the hatches to see extra seats inside the unit and ir also has the cockpit like the new one. Honestly the set doesn't look tremendously different from the new one as far as the AT-TE is concerned. None of the minifigures were exclusive or redesign exclusives, so the new set does have a slight advantage there. The redone set includes 798 pieces and was also $.11 per piece. It included a STAP as well which this set does not have.

The newest AT-TE design includes 794 pieces and is also $.11 a piece. Honestly, I would say it is probably right on par with the original. If I had to give the edge to one, I will always go with the newer as Lego has proved they consistently improve sets as years pass. I might have to build both to know for sure (a great excuse to do so).

My Investment Analysis: I think there are a couple of things that go into this. To find the possible value, we should look at the old AT-TE sets, and any other Star Wars sets that have had 3 comparable remakes. First up, the original and its redesign:

4482 – 11.29% CAGR, 10 years old, Current price $204 or 191.5% Return over retail.
7675 – 17.83% CAGR, 5 years old, Current price $204.39 or 131% Return over retail.

Looking at these two, they are pretty similar. I think that in 5 more years, 7675 will most likely be sitting right where 4482 is now with around 11% CAGR and almost a 200% return over retail. SO this data looks good for us.

But, how have triple similar remakes done?

X-wing – 7140 in 1999, 7142 in 2002, and 4502 in 2004.

How did 4502 do? - 12.39% CAGR and current price of $143 which is 186% return over retail in 9 years.

Actually, the X-wing had a fourth similar set, being 6212 in 2006. That was where the set fell off with just a CAGR of 1%.

Millennium Falcon – 7190 in 2000, 4504 in 2004, and 7778 in 2009

This one is a reach because two of the sets had close to 1000 pieces and the last had less, but it still was a comparable re-remake.

7778 – 16.34% CAGR, current price of $73.25 at 83% over retail value in 4 years.

Slave 1 - 7153 in 2002, 6209 in 2006, and 8097 in 2010.

This one I think offers really good data since it is a more recent tri-make.

8097 – 13.51% CAGR, current price $117 at 46% over retail in 3 years.

So what does this tell us? Well, it shows steady growth despite 3 iterations, provided there is improvement in the set. Since this current AT-TE has not had a new one in 5 years and has new minifigures as well as the one exclusive, I think it can be hypothesized that it will follow in the footsteps of the two originals combined with the data for the other re-remakes. This would put it right around 15% CAGR after 5 years. This would put it's five year value at $181 exactly, or 101% return over retail.

In summary, a solid set to keep an eye on and pick up as a long term investment.

Jabba's Sail Barge 75020

From the Lego Website:

Help Princess Leia and R2-D2 escape from Jabba’s Sail Barge™!
Princess Leia and R2-D2 are secretly plotting their escape from Jabba’s Sail Barge™ prison. Help them to sneak past the guards, Weequay and Ree-Yees, while Jabba the Hutt gets distracted by musician Max Rebo! Find a way to slip through the opening side windows of the floating Sail Barge, then get past its hidden pirate cannon, deck cannon and 2 flick missiles! This essential LEGO® Star Wars™ set features wheels, fold-down sides, removable deck, jail, kitchen and Jabba’s throne. Includes Jabba the Hutt, R2-D2 and 4 minifigures with weapons: Princess Leia in slave outfit, Max Rebo, Weequay and Ree-Yees.

• Includes Jabba the Hutt, R2-D2 and 4 minifigures with weapons: Princess Leia in slave outfit, Max Rebo, Weequay and Ree-Yees
• Features hidden pirate cannon, deck cannon with 2 flick missiles, opening side windows, wheels, fold-down sides and removable deck for easy access to the jail, kitchen and Jabba’s cabin
• Weapons include an axe and a blaster
• Move Jabba’s Sail Barge™ with rolling undercarriage wheels
• Find the hidden pirate cannon
• Arm the deck cannons and fire the flick missiles!
• Remove the deck to play inside
• Recreate this iconic scene from Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi
• Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 16" (43cm) long and 8" (22cm) wide

My Analysis: Unfortunately, the first thing I see when I look at this set is over-priced. I saw this set inside TRU and I wasn't that impressed from the look of the box for it to have a retail price tag of $120. It's $.14 per piece, which usually means some really large pieces or a lot of minfigures, but even with the 5 minfigures plus Jabba, I don't see anything special to make it that much. For now, we are judging it on its own merit and not as a remake.

On the plus side, the set has a lot of cool nuances with it: It is on wheels so it moves easily, the sides fold down and the deck is removable. It has a Jail and a kitchen which are cool play-ability add-ons. It also has, you guessed it: flick missiles as well. There is also a hidden pirate cannon inside it. The R2D2 looks interesting as it is a slight redesign of the serving version in the first one. The Jabba figure is the same as in the Palace set current out (9516), but he is still pretty impressive with a moving head and body. The Leia is a nice plus as it is a slave redesign and looks a lot like the outfit from the movie.

The last three minifigures are the important ones here as they are all exclusive to this set and really well done. For those of us who like collecting the more obscure Star Wars characters, this is a big plus for the set. These include Ree-Yees, a three eye'd onlooker, Weequay, a guard type character with a very mean gruff look, and my favorite Max Reebo which is the small blue elephant looking character. He is the leader of the Max Rebo band in the movie that works for Jabba. I think he will be the most sought after minifigure from this set as he is very memorable and a nice change of pace from the guards and troopers in other Star Wars sets.

How does this set compare to the original? The original minfigures are a little more memorable with R2D2 and Slave Leia being the same, but including Luke, Han Solo, Lando Calrissian, Bobba Fett, and a Gammorean Guard. On the other hand, if this one included all these minfigures, it wouldn't have really set it apart form the original, so I think the new exclusive minifigures were the right move for TLG.

The original was a much better deal at $.10 per piece with just 70 less pieces. It also included the skiff and the Sarlacc where as now you have to buy those separately. This definitely hurts the set. On the other hand, the new set is much more updated being 7 years newer and has a lot more playability and detail to it. The Jabba figure is much better as well. If I had to lean one way, I would say the new set is better, but only if you get it for $100. I think at $120, the set is just too over priced.

My Investment Analysis: We all know this is an iconic part of Star Wars and we know that this set will be popular because of it. So looking past that, I feel like there are two major pieces of data we can look at to see if this set will be a good investment: 1. How did the first Sail barge do? 2. How do similar remakes do?

First off, the original Sail Barge:

6210 Jabba's Sail Barge: 22.93% CAGR, current price of $319.13 for 325% return over retail after 7 years.

So what does this tell us? It will gain. This new one is better and has some new minifigures. But will it be as good? I doubt it. This is for several reasons. The biggest is the price. The higher the retail price, the less over retail it can gain. Because this set is about $20 over priced, the returns will suffer because they are calculated looking at the real retail price. So let's do a little bit of math.

If $100 is the right price for this set, and $120 is overpriced, then using ratios, the original set's overpriced retail price would be $95.99. If we look at it's gain from there recalculated, it would be 18.3% CAGR as reversing the CAGR formula we have (319/96)^(1/7)-1. So, if we think the new set will match the old one, we would expect 18.3% CAGR after 7 years, which is still pretty acceptable.

So how about the re-make angle of it? Using data I compiled from my set review on Jabba's Palace, we saw that in 2 out of the three cases I sited, the second iteration did better than the original. The only other was the clone tank which suffered a bit from being too similar. If we look at the data I compiled for the AT-TE, the 2^nd iteration of the X-Wing and the Millennium falcon, the second iteration also did well though they were remade. What does this tell us? That if the set is good enough, being remade wont be a huge factor in whether it is a winner or not.

So final verdict? Well, I think this set is still going to suffer from two things that will hurt it in its case to match the original. The price and the fact that the original had the skiff in it. I think the set will still do very well as all of these Jabba sets go together, but I would safely predict about 15% CAGR using the $120 retail price tag. This is still a good gainer and those factors could actually work in the sets favor if it doesn't get targeted and becomes a sleeper. At 15% CAGR, that would put this set at $241.24 in 5 years.

The X-Factor would be if it is not heavily discounted, but you manage to get it at somewhere around $90. If the set is heavily discounted, it will sell too much and hurt the secondary market profits. However, as it currently sits, some people will walk away at that price, especially investors. If you find some intricate ways to get it down to $90, you are going to definitely make money.

In summary, for the right price, it will be a solid investment. Either way, you have to have one to build!

Republic Gunship 75021

From the Lego website:

Rescue the heroes with the LEGO® Star Wars™ Republic Gunship™!
Race to Geonosis™ in the awesome LEGO® Star Wars™ Republic Gunship™ to rescue Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker and Padmé Amidala before they’re overpowered by 2 Super Battle Droids™! Aim the 4 ball gun turrets with minifigure cockpit, then open the front compartment to grab the flick missiles and restock the 8 top-mounted launchers! Open the side and rear doors to deploy the swoop bike! Use the lifting handle for easier flying-action role-play! Includes 7 minifigures with weapons: Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker, Padmé Amidala, Clone Trooper™ Captain, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids.

• Includes 7 minifigures with weapons: Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker, Padmé Amidala, Clone Trooper™ Captain, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids™
• Features 4 ball gun turrets with space for minifigures, flick missiles, 8 top-mounted flick missile launchers, side and rear doors, swoop bike and a lifting handle
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers, blaster pistol, blaster and a blaster rifle
• Aim the turrets and fire
• Restock the flick missile launchers!
• Open the cockpits and put the minifigures inside
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Build an even bigger Battle of Geonosis™ with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75016 Homing Spider Droid™ and 75019 AT-TE™
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 18" (48cm) long and 16" (43cm) wide

My Analysis: Now here is a set that looks like it's worth $120! I love the minifigure cockpits on this ship. It adds tons of playability. Plus you get 8 flick missile launchers! Child's dream; parent nightmare. The set itself looks really impressive and is right at $.10 per piece. I saw this one in TRU($150...) and it looked soooo much more impressive than the other new Star Wars sets that were next to it on the shelf.

As for the minifigures, we get a plethora of them. The Anakin Skywalker is an episode 2 redesign as well as is the Obi-Wan minifig. You also get Amidala in Geonosis attire. It also comes with two super battle droids which are one of my favorite droids and it's rare to get two of the better did figures in the same set. You also get a clone trooper captain and a clone trooper pilot. Though I really like all the minifigures in this set, I think it hurts it that there are no real exclusive minifigures. On the other hand, one of the new Geonosis sets had to include all the core characters, and of all of these, I don't really see an undesirable minifigure int he set. Most people are going to be buying this set for the ship itself anyway.

So how does this set compare to the original? The original was actually slightly overpriced. It had only 693 pieces and 7 minifigures and was priced at $90. In this set, for only 30 dollars more, you get almost 500 more pieces! I think that is really going to factor into the value of this set later on. The newer set also looks a lot more sleek and stylish as well. The original set's minifigures didn't include any core characters – 4 clone troopers, a clone commander, and a “jedi knight” so that is a plus for the new set. On the other hand, the old set had a Droideka which, to me, is a pretty desirable minifigure. Overall, I would say the piece count is going to make this newer set the better set. This is a big ship in the movie – only fitting we get a big ship as a Lego set.

My Investment Analysis: We have talked about remakes and how well they do already. I will spare you more analysis here. We will just agree that the set itself has more effect on the value then whether it has been made before. What becomes important is how popular this ship is, and how well the last comparable set did. The results are below:

7163 – 693 pieces. 8.93% CAGR. Current price of $225 for 150% return on retail over 11 years
4490 – 102 pieces. 9.34% CAGR. Current price of 17.07 for 185% return over retail over 10 years

I think this definitely establishes that the ship is fairly popular and desired. 7163's CAGR is not amazing, but it has been around for 11 years and was still fairly successful looking at its return over retail. Looking at this new set, I think it should be able to match the set because of the large piece count for a relatively better value, the impressiveness of the set, and the better minifigures. I don't think it will be an amazing gainer, but I think it could match 15 CAGR after 5 years (This would most likely make it like 7163 being at 9% CAGR after 10 years). At 15% CAGR, in 5 years this set would be worth $241.36, or a 101% return over retail.

Two things to be aware of. First, I see way more value in this set that Jabba's Sail Bridge at the same price. This is definitely important to remember when comparing investments. Secondly, I would say this set has a lot of sleeper potential. I would definitely keep track of how popular this set is while it is available. I think it could get a little over shadowed by the Jabba set because of how well the last Sail barge did. If it does, it may really surprise people!

Ewok Village 10236

From the Lego website:

Recreate classic scenes at the Ewok Village!
Travel to Endor™ and visit the treetop home of the Ewoks. Just like in Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi, this recreation of the Ewoks’ forest dwelling is packed with cool functions, including the tree-trunk hideout, secret Lightsaber stash, spider web, net traps, slide, catapults and an elevating throne. Use the rammer function to take out the Scout Trooper’s speeder − just like in the movie! Realistic details include rope walkways, vine and leaf elements, kitchen, food storage area, bedroom and a planning room. The Ewok Village set is the perfect addition to your LEGO® Star Wars collection. Includes R2-D2™and 16 minifigures with weapons: Luke Skywalker™, Princess Leia™, Han Solo™, Chewbacca™, C-3PO™, 2 Rebel soldiers, 5 Ewoks™ (including Wicket™, Teebo™, Chief Chirpa™ and Logray™), 2 Scout Troopers and 2 Stormtroopers™

• Includes R2-D2™ and 16 minifigures: Luke Skywalker™, Princess Leia™, Han Solo™, Chewbacca™, C-3PO™, 2 Rebel soldiers, 5 Ewoks™, 2 Scout™ Troopers™ and 2 Stormtroopers™
• Features tree-trunk hideout and secret Lightsaber stash, spider web and net traps, slide, catapults, elevating throne, speeder rammer function, kitchen, food storage area, bedroom and a planning room
• Speeder also included
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, 3 blaster pistols, 2 blasters, 2 blaster rifles, 2 spears, bow and a crossbow
• Also includes 2 staffs
• Collect hard-to-find Endor Princess Leia, C-3PO, Luke, Han Solo and Wicket Ewok minifigures!
• Fend off the advancing Imperial forces
• Amaze the Ewoks with the elevating throne!
• Avoid the spider web and net traps!
• Destroy the speeder with the rammer function!
• Take refuge in the tree-trunk hideout
• Shoot down the slide and join the battle
• Fire rocks at the enemy with the catapults!
• Measures over 1" (35cm) high, 21" (55cm) wide and 13" (35cm) deep

My Analysis: Wow! I can't even imagine someone could say something negative about this set. It just looks incredible from all the pictures I have seen of it. It really captures the feel of the Ewok's village from Return of the Jedi. I love the wooden bridge between the two sections of trees as well as the rope ladders that lead up to the trees. It also comes with a speeder bike, spider webs and net traps which add a lot of play-ability. On top of it all, you get a whole set of Ewok weapons!

This really follows in the footsteps of the Death Star 10188 as a giant playset. Normally, larger sets are collector's editions and aren't really geared towards children as much. However, the Death Star broke that mold and this one is right there with it. 16 minifigures! Get someone this for Christmas and their birthday! They wont need another Lego set for a long time.

The Ewok Warrior and Teebo the Ewok are exclusive minifigures with the rest of the Ewoks only appearing in the other two Ewok attack sets. You also get a shiny gold redesigned C3PO that is only in one other set. The Ewoks have really only been featured in two sets before this, so this is an area of Star Wars that has been fairly untapped. I think the Ewoks are a character that really resonate with casual Star Wars fans. My wife saw this set and her mouth dropped. She wants it as much as I do!

So any downsides? Well, it is a little pricey at $250, although that really hasn't stopped the Death Star from selling. I think the set itself is worth it because it is so impressive and unique, but it may stop a few people from buying it. Also, it isn't a deemed UCS set, which means it may not sound quite as collectible to people. Other than that, I can't see a whole lot wrong with it at all. I can't think of a lot of other ways they could have made it better.

My Investment Analysis: So this is the hard part. How do we even come close to predicting what this set is going to do? Well I am going to take a crack at it.

First, let's take a look at the Ewok line:

7139 Ewok Attack – 8.27% CAGR. Current price $31.13 for 140% return over retail in 11 years.
7956 Ewok Attack – -5.26% CAGR – Just recently retired

The original Ewok Attack showed solid gain for a battle pack type set. The newer one was just recently retired, but has held its value fairly well and has gained for the last few months. It had a relatively high retail price as well. Either way, there is definitely some interest here, and like I said, a limited number of sets.

As far as Endor, we don't have a lot of retired Endor sets to compare it to, but 8038 The Battle of Endor is one that is slightly comparable on a lower level. It has seen a modest 5.67% CAGR, although it was just retired a few years ago.

Honestly, there just is not a whole lot out there to compare this set to. It is a Lego Exclusive and really it is usually pretty hard to go wrong with those. I think the higher retail price could actually help it in the end because it may not be targeted near as much when there are things like the Tower Bridge 10214 and Haunted House 10228 that are less expensive.

In the end though, I think I would be really surprised if this set doesn't see UCS type value. I would love to compare it to a UCS set, but most of those retired sets are giant ships and this is completely different. Really the best thing to compare it to is 10188, which as I am sure most of you know, is not retired yet. The uniqueness of this set is something that this theme severely needs and I think this set brings it. If I had to put my finger on it, I would expect that we could see 20% CAGR after the first 5 years which would put the set at $622.08. But I think it has tons of positive and negative gaining potential. Wait and see is hard sometimes!

Remember, this is only a pre-pre-pre-prediction. There are a lot of things that could effect this set's value. If it sees a limited run, it could sky-rocket. If it stays forever like the Death Star has, it could be really damaging. I would definitely wait awhile and try to get a good deal ($200 seems about right) before I jumped on it. But honestly, with it being a Lego exclusive, I don't see a whole lot of sales coming for it. This, in the end, may be the best thing for those of us who decide to put it away until one day it brings the Star Wars Lego Theme back to the prominence it deserves.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

For any of us who are into Lego investing, we know that the phrase "Lego has brand new Star Wars sets!" is not really deserving of the exclamation point. In fact, according to current BrickPicker data, there have been 346 Star Wars sets as of the writing of this article. Saying these sets have been "mass produced" is a little bit of an understatement. Yes, in the past, it seemed that just buying a Star Wars set meant solid returns. Now, this is not true anymore with all of the remakes and clone sets from the original, the lack of new movies in the series, and the mass producing Lego has seemed to do with this theme. The theme CAGR has even fallen under the mean CAGR for a Lego theme of 11.26%. It is hovering around 9%.

Does this mean that Lego Star Wars is not a good investment anymore? Of course not! It just means we have to be much more careful about what we consider a good investment in the theme. So this is part 1 of my look at the fall sets in the Star Wars line and if any of them will be big winners, or if they will continue the trend of tapering off as a solid investment.

Note: For this, I am doing 5 sets in part 1 and 4 sets in part 2. The sets are done from smallest to largest.

Mandalorian Speeder 75022

From the Lego website:

Attack with Darth Maul in the Mandalorian™ Speeder!
Get to the rendezvous point in the LEGO® Star Wars™ Mandalorian™ Speeder with the treacherous Sith Lord Darth Maul minifigure with mechanical legs. Plot the Mandalorian takeover and take on anyone who gets in your way with hidden flick missiles, rear weapon storage and elevating cannon! Then, face off in minifigure combat with his legendary Darksaber! Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Clone Wars Darth Maul and 2 Mandalorian Super Commandos.
• Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Darth Maul and 2 Mandalorian™ Super Commandos
• Features hidden flick missiles under the hood, rear weapon storage and elevating gun
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, Darksaber and 2 blasters
• Collect Darth Maul with mechanical Clone Wars legs
• Unleash the hidden flick missiles!
• Elevate the gun and aim to fire!
• Battle with the legendary Darksaber
• Relive the excitement of Star Wars™: The Clone Wars animated TV series
• Measures over 3" (8cm) high, 7" (19cm) long and 4" (12cm) wide

My Analysis: This is a cool little set at just over $.10 a piece. It is from the clone wars series, so it was never featured in the movies. It includes two identical Clone Wars Commandos which are redesigns and look pretty cool. I think the helmets they are wearing are pretty cool too being full-faced.

What this set really has going for it is the Darth Maul with the cybernetic legs. If you haven't followed the series, after Darth Maul was cut in half in the end of Episode 1, he fell into the melting pit. The story goes that he was found 10 years later with cybernetic, spider-like legs as he had lost his lower half. He evidently favors two light-sabers now instead of the dual one he came to be known with. He is exclusive to this set, so I think that will make this set really have a decent amount of value. There are a lot of Darth Maul fans and I think they will want this little set because of him.

In regards to playability, the ship can seat two characters and it has hidden flick missiles. One of the light-sabers is the legendary Dark-saber as well, adding to the uniqueness of the set. How well have sets including an exclusive or first run of a redesigned Darth Maul done?

3340 Minifigure pack – 20.71% CAGR 13 years old
7663 Sith Infiltrator – 8.33% CAGR 6 years old
7961 Sith Infiltrator - -8.74% CAGR 2 years old

The values for this set are all over the place, although we can possibly throw out 7961 because it was overpriced at $.15 per piece and, though retired, has still been fairly easy to find. I think this Darth Maul will be better just because he is so different from all the other redesigns. My Prediction is a healthy 10% CAGR after 5 years. This would put the set at $40.24 at that time. Not record breaking, but healthy growth.

My Investment Suggestion: Just look to score the Darth Maul by either getting the set cheap and parting it out, or buying it separately. It is the only big thing going for this set. The figure could be worth $30 in a few years if there isn't another set including him with cybernetic legs.

Corporate Alliance Tank Droid 75015

From the Lego website:

Battle the LEGO® Star Wars™ Corporate Alliance Tank Droid™!
Build the great Battle of Geonosis™ where the Separatist forces are advancing on the Jedi Knights and their clone army with the LEGO® Star Wars™ Corporate Alliance Tank Droid™! Help the Clone Troopers™ to repel the Droid’s crushing track tire and 2 flick missiles! Then fend off the Battle Droid™ and infamous bounty hunter Jango Fett. Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Clone Trooper, Jango Fett and a Battle Droid.
• Includes 3 minifigures: Clone Trooper™, Jango Fett and a Battle Droid
• Features large track tire and 2 flick missiles
• Weapons include 2 blaster pistols, blaster and a blaster rifle
• Fire the flick missiles!
• Navigate any terrain and crush your enemy with the rugged track tire!
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones!
• Recreate an even bigger Battle of Geonosis with 75016 Homing Spider Droid™, 75019 AT-TE™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™!
• Measures over 4" (11cm) high, 7" (18cm) long and 3" (9cm) wide

My Analysis: This one is a little hard to figure out. Yes, Lego has been doing a lot of Star Wars clones, but this set was just released 4 years ago. The original just had two clone tropers and two droids while this one comes with 1 of each and a Jango Fett. The ship does look a little updated and better detailed and it does include flick missiles this time. The set has better value as well, with the old set having 219 pieces at $24.99 and this one having 279 and only being $19.99. $.07 price per piece is pretty hard to find for Star Wars sets.

Either way, the first set has really done nothing in the aftermarket at all as a fairly no-name non-iconic ship and there is really nothing here to make us think this one will be any different. I think it will probably be worth building, especially because you are getting quite a deal compared to other Star Wars sets in price per piece. Jango Fett is an exclusive redesign, but I don't think it is anything to get too excited about.

My Investment Suggestion: The original Alliance Tank Droid 7748 didn't even breach 2% CAGR. Though I like the set and will probably have one to build, I would stay away from it as an investment unless you find it on clearance for less than $10. It might be worth keeping an eye on Jango Fett, since he has only been in a few more expensive sets and this is a re-design, but I see nothing here to really be excited about. Nice set, but an investment nobody.

Homing Spider Droid 75016

From the Lego website:

Take on the Homing Spider Droid™ in the Battle of Geonosis!
As the Battle of Geonosis™ rages on, Jedi Master Stass Allie and a Clone Trooper™ spot a deadly LEGO® Star Wars™ Homing Spider Droid™ in the distance. Overpower the droid before it attacks with its articulated legs, rotating head, elevating lower gun and top-mounted flick missile! Then, take on 2 Super Battle Droids™! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Stass Allie, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Stass Allie, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids™
• Features articulated legs, rotating head, elevating lower gun and top-mounted flick missile
• Weapons include a Lightsaber and a blaster rifle
• Move the legs, rotate the head and fire the flick missile!
• Use Stass Allie’s Jedi powers to stop the attack!
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Build an even bigger Battle of Geonosis with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75019 AT-TE™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™!
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 10" (26cm) long and 7" (19cm) wide

My Analysis: This set is really intriguing to me. In general, we have learned from past Star Wars sets that the weirder, less prominent, but unique ships from the Star Wars movies and the Clone Wars series have done relatively well. The AT-OT, AT-TE, and the Clone Turbo Tank come to mind. The set itself looks really interesting with the large Spider droid that can move its lower gun around, rotate its head, and of course, has a flick missile. It's almost exactly $.10 per piece which is always pretty good for a Star Wars set.

On top of this, it has a new (really, absolutely new!) minifigure in Stass Allie who served as a Jedi general during the clone wars series. Though maybe not a household name, an exclusive minifigure always helps. I think it helps as well that she is female as the Star Wars line really lacks female presence past the Queens and Princesses. I would say it is possible she will be in newer sets though, so this will be more of a “Wait and see”.

This is a remake, so it is hard to say what effect that will have as it really isn't a whole lot different from the old set, 7681 The Separatist Spider Droid. It does have a few more pieces for the same price, but one less minifigure. It doesn't have the super battle droid which was really the best piece in the set. However, 7681 saw some really great gains in retirement even though it is only 5 years old and I would venture to say this set looks a little better and has a little more playability with the exclusive minifigure and the flick missile. 7681 saw 32.95% CAGR, so if this new one does half as good, it will be a win.

If you are starting to see similarities in these sets, they are all meant to be Genosis sets which will help each set's value in the long run. Anytime sets go together, it is good for investors.

My Investment Suggestion: I think this set has huge sleeper potential. Obviously, the old spider droid was a sleeper as well as there aren't many $30 sets that make it to 4 times their retail value in 5 years. Because of how many sets are coming out in this theme at one time and how many bigger sets are being released (the New UCS X-Wing, Ewok Village, etc.) this one most likely will be overlooked again.

The first set was technically a limited edition set and was a TRU exclusive and with this one not being, I would assume it won't do as well. At the same time, people who now can't afford the limited edition set will want this one instead. The original had one exclusive minifigure in Commander Fox and this one has Stass Allie. There are enough similarities in the sets to be able to accurately compare them.

Looking at all that, I see a safe prediction of 15% CAGR for this set down the road meaning it should definitely be on your radar as a potential sleeper. If it sees limited production for some reason again, it could go up even more. 15% CAGR would put this set at $60.34 in 5 years. Not bad to see a 100% gain over retail.

Duel on Genosis 75017

From the Lego Website:

Defeat Count Dooku™ and recover the plans for the Death Star!
Stop Count Dooku™ from leaving Geonosis™ with the plans for the Death Star! Use the Force to help Jedi Master Yoda™ jump into the air, dodge the Sith Lord’s Force Lightning attack and bring Dooku to justice. Don’t let him destroy the lair and escape on his speeder. Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Count Dooku, Yoda, Poggle the Lesser and Dooku’s Pilot Droid™.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Count Dooku™, Yoda™, Poggle the Lesser and Dooku’s Pilot Droid™
• Lair features falling lamps, tower handle and hidden compartment
• Also features Dooku’s speeder
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers
• Accessories include Death Star plans decorated tile, walking stick and a Force Lightning element
• Unleash Dooku’s Sith Force Lightning attack!
• Pull the lever and topple the pillar
• Hop on the speeder and outrun the Jedi!
• Hide the Death Star plans in the hidden compartment
• Collect the redesigned Yoda and Poggle the Lesser minifigures
• Lair measures over 5" (15cm) high, 15" (40cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep
• Dooku’s speeder measures over 1" (4cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 1" (4cm) wide

My Analysis: Yes! Finally we get to something a little bit unique among all the remakes and Star Wars vehicles. I love the Star Wars line, but until this set and the Ewok Village which will be discussed in part 2, I have felt like every year we were just getting more and more of the same.

This set is really a straight up throwback – Lego hasn't made a Star Wars “duel” set since 2002. I think that will really help this set a lot. It's something that is definitely different from the other sets that are currently out there and are gong to be out there. The set also has 2 exclusive redesigns to it in Yoda and Count Duku, a redesign that it only shares with 1 other set in FA-4 (will be included in the next SW advent calendar), and a new exclusive minifigure in Poggle the Lesser which is an awesome minfigure with wings shown below:

What sets apart this “duel” set from the originals as well is the terrain that comes with it. It has falling lamps and handles and hidden compartments for enormous playability. I also really love the Death Star plans on the decorated tile. It comes with a speeder as well for a quick getaway. This set is so much different from the other sets out there, I can't imagine it won't be a big success and a big investment winner.

My Investment Suggestion: Let's take a look at what some of the other duel sets look like right now:
7101 – Lightsaber Duel – 10.94% CAGR, 14 years old, $.12 price per piece retail
7103 Jedi Duel – 12.48% CAGR, 11 years old, $.12 price per piece retail
7200 Final Duel 1 – 13.32% CAGR , 11 years old, $.23 price per piece retail
7201 Final Duel 2 – 6.52% CAGR, 11 years old, $.27 price per piece retail

Looking at these, all of them were very good investments and all of them were very cheap. This is a little different since this is set is $40. However, the set has a ton more to offer. It actually has dueling terrain instead of just the dueling characters. It is at a very reasonable $.10 price per piece retail and is not a remake – something the Star Wars theme really needs. Add on the exclusives and I think this set is right on the edge of sleeper/target status. As an investor, ignore this set at your own risk.

My thoughts are that this set will see 20% CAGR after 5 years as a safe bet looking at how well these sets have done and how much better this one is. If that is true, it's value will be $99.53. This would definitely be a nice change of pace for us Star Wars investors. If you find this set discounted, buy it! What more could you want in a set?

Jek-14 Stealth Starfighter 75018

From the Lego website:

Capture Jek-14’s™ Stealth Starfighter!
Pursue the rogue clone, Jek-14™, in his amazing Stealth Starfighter with retractable landing gear, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, folding wings, rotating and elevating blaster cannon, R4-G0™ astromech droid, storage compartment with holocron and 2 flick missiles. Will Jek-14 escape the Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and the Republic Special Forces Clone Trooper™, or has his power grown enough to face them? Includes R4-G0 astromech droid and 3 minifigures with weapons: Jek-14, Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and Special Forces Clone Trooper™.
• Includes R4-G0 astromech droid and 3 minifigures with weapons: Jek-14™, Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and Special Forces Clone Trooper™
• Features retractable landing gear, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, folding wings, rotating and elevating blaster cannon, R4-G0™ astromech droid, storage compartment with holocron and 2 flick missiles
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, blaster rifle and blaster
• Also includes an energy shield
• Press the levers and fold the wings for flight mode!
• Fend off the enemy with the flick missiles and blaster cannon
• Open the storage compartment and reveal the holocron
• Measures over 3" (10cm) high, 13" (35cm) long and 13" (34cm) wide

My Analysis: This set is a little hard to figure out. First off, ignoring the investing angle, it looks pretty cool, but very overpriced. $.13 a piece is not really bad for a Star Wars set, but when I look at the box I just don't see shelling out $70 for it. The ship does look pretty cool with the black and red color scheme, but looking at the set I really think $60 seems a lot better. I think it will really have a tough time selling at that price. I saw it the other day in TRU (it was marked $99.99 LOL) and I just didn't see enough to warrant the price tag.

On the other hand, we have something that may be a first in the Star Wars line for the last 5 or 6 years: 4 exclusive minfigures. Yes the ship is from the Clone wars series and so there are a lot more characters from that which haven't been introduced, but it still rare to get this many new minifigures in one set. Jek-14, shown in the first picture below is pretty cool looking. He is a good change of pace form the other minfigures in the Star Wars line with his white suit and white handled light saber.

The special forces clone trooper is really cool too. He has a round shield that is pretty unique and his garb is a very extravagant blue which is very unique to this theme:

The other two figures are a little less intriguing though. The separatist bounty hunter looks too much like a guy in camo-garb to me and his white helmet seems a little out of place. The R4-G0 is another no-name droid that sort of looks like all the others. I won't complain about new minifigures, but he is nothing to get excited about:

The ship itself does have some extras. Again, Lego has included some flick missiles for our enjoyment and the ships wings fold in. I really like the sets that have moving wings and multiple positions. It allows kids to play in different ways with the sets. For me, it allows me different ways to display the ships – sometimes I open all their wings and sometimes I close them all.

My Investment Suggestion: More information needed. There is really not a lot we can compare this set to with all the exclusive minifigures. A lot of the current clone wars ships have not retired yet so we don't have a lot of data to compare it to. If it were an old popular ship with 4 exclusive minifigures, I would say definite home run, but the obscurity of the ship and the high retail price make me really wonder about it.

I would say about 6 months after this set comes out, we will have a lot better data. If these minifigures stay exclusive to the set, it could go way up. If no one buys the set, it may go down in value. Either way, I would say don't bite on this set unless you get it for under $50 and honestly I would wait a while before I even considered it. It does have some sleeper status, but we have to see if it even draws the attention of builders before we consider it to be a good investment.

This concludes the first installment of the new wave of Star Wars Lego Ships. Part 2 will include the 4 bigger sets of the series including the Jabba's Sail Barge remake an the much anticipated Ewok Village.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

On this second entry of the BrickIndex Spotlight I will be focusing on one of the last real sleeper sets of the past year or so: The Zombies from the Monster Fighters theme.

The Zombies set was a Target exclusive, meaning that people could only purchase it through them or an actual LEGO store, thus causing the set to have a more limited availability than the average LEGO set. Even more, The Zombies only lasted for a few months and was retired very soon and without notice, a couple of facts that ended up boosting its appeal to both investors and collectors.

A lot has happened over the months this has been retired, but ever since this particular set has been in the top 3 places in the list of top performing sets of the last 6 months (BrickIndex). It actually spent several months on the first spot, but as time goes on and its growth slows down it has dropped to "only" third place.

We have to remember; this set was priced with a MSRP or $39.99 and at this point is selling for almost three times that value ($ 117.47). The rapid growth experienced by this set in a very short time caused its CAGR to be extremely positive at around 194%!.

Let's now take a look at the growth of the set in the graph below.

As you see above, the growth of the set really started accelerating once December came along, and has since grown every single month up to April of this year. In the table above, you will also see that there is a regression line that serves to show the linear trend the set has been following over the past 6 months.

Over the past month of April (last month we currently have data from) the set appears to have started slowing down on its growth, going up in value by "only" 2.5%. Once we get the data from the month of May we will be able to tell if the set is definitely maturing and will then only show minor variations in its value in the short term, but I think that even without that data the graph and some logic would suggest that to be the case.

What made this set so successful is such a short period of time? well, a big part of it is its limited availability and early retirement. Another point that probably played a role is the current popularity of anything even remotely related to Zombies, that probably made this set even more appealing even for the casual LEGO buyer.

To conclude, I just want to add that even though this set has been in the BrickIndex for the past several months and even continues showing some recent growth, most investors that currently do not own one would be better served by purchasing some of the other sets currently available. Opposite to the case of the Winter Village Bakery, I believe that the chance to make significant profits in the short to medium term are almost null with this set given its growth pattern and its current market value.

Thanks for reading

Welcome to the 2nd Edition of the Re-Make Impact Evaluation section. For those of you who read the 1st Edition, the purpose of this article is already clear, but if you are new to my blogs, I recommend you to at least read the intro section of the first Impact Evaluation dedicated to the Sopwith Camel.

As you all probably know, 9516 Jabba's Palace set was the focus of investor and collector's attention a couple of months ago when news about its possible early retirement were spread through the news networks. In those crazy days, the set saw a huge spike in price as a result of panic buying and short term flippers that has since faded out. Now that everything is back to normal, I think it is important to remember that this version of Jabba's Palace is actually the second one released by LEGO, since back in 2003 the 4480 Jabba's Palace was introduced.

The older version of the Palace is obviously inferior to this current one, with a lot less detailing and lower quality minifigs. Back then, LEGO was still in the early years of what I think as of a huge jump in set design and quality, so the inferiority of the model is actually not that surprising. The older version included only around 200 pieces, but despite its small size and not great detailing the set actually performed great in the secondary market, with its highest point in the last 12 months reaching $ 170.

Let's now take a look at how the set has behaved since the newer version was released around mid-year 2012:

So, you can see on the graph that the trend for the old 4480 set has been negative for most of the time. We also have to consider that 9516 was made available in July, but that its official announcement was made some time before that. From the data, we see that over the past year alone 4480 has lost around 28% of its value, and currently sells for around $131. You may ask, how can we be so sure that the newer version is the cause of the sudden drop in value?, well there is no way to be completely sure without a very in depth analysis, but I can at least tell you that between the beginning of May 2011 through April 2012 the set lost only around 6 % of its value, while in the past year or so (May 2012 through April 2013) the set has lost that 28% we mentioned earlier. There is clearly some relation between the announcement and release of the new version and the sharp decrease in value of the old one.

Of all of the sets I have been evaluating for this section, this one of the sets that has experienced such a large drop in value following the new release. It will be interesting to see if it continues to drop further in the following months, but it is very clear that most investors would be better served by selling some of their stock just in case the 4480 continues this downward trend.

I decided to start a new kind of feature or at least semi-regular type of article that will focus in the impact of re-released models on their predecessors. I intend to at least do one of these per month as a minimum, but may increase the regularity based on how much time I have available from time to time. Also, I can only do this with sets that have been released over the past 12 months, as that is the only data I have available from Brickpicker, but I consider that is more than enough time to evaluate the effects of remakes most of the time.

I will be starting this section of my blog with one set that has been talked about a lot on Brickpicker's forums, the 10226 Sopwith Camel.

Back in 2001 Lego released its first version of the Sopwith Camel, a somewhat famous plane from the World War 1 era. The set included almost 600 pieces and was the first of a series of several advanced models dedicated to famous aircrafts (the other two being the Red Baron and the Wright Flyer). The model was very well done, for its time, and in the end performed very well in the secondary market. More specifically, it currently has a CAGR of almost 10% and a Holding Period Return of close to 210%, great numbers when we consider it has been retired for almost a decade at this point.

Fast forward 12 years and LEGO decides to bring back a larger and more detailed model based on the exact same plane. The newest version released last year includes 883 pieces and looks just so much better than the older one. From the fresh color scheme to the vast collection of details and features, this set really proves that LEGO has stepped up its game in the past few years. The 10226 Sopwith is one of those sets most investors expect will do great, but that it's a completely different conversation.

So, what has been the impact of this newest release on the older 3451? Let's take a look at the numbers of each set compared in the graph below:

So, I don't know if you can notice it very well on this graph, but I think you can see that since the newest Sopwith was released the older version has been on a downward trend as far as value is concerned. It has not been a sharp 30% drop, but it has been somewhat significant. In fact, If you take a look at the numbers in the Price Guide, the 3451 has lost almost 8.4% from where it was last year and it seems to keep going down.

These results are hardly unexpected. Who would really want to pay more than $150 for an older and inferior model when there is a clearly superior and more affordable one currently on the market based on the exact same plane?. Other than some serious collectors, there are probably very few individuals that would for the older one. The older Sopwith will not, of course, lose value indefinitely.

Even though in this case the re-released version has cause a dip on the older set, we can't really assure that this will always be the case. And we will see if this holds once we get to our 2nd Edition of the Re-Make Impact Evaluation.

In 2000, the news of Hollywood’s newest power couple, noted playboy Brad Pitt and America’s sweetheart Jennifer Aniston broke. Tabloids proclaimed them “king and queen of Hollywood” and the paparazzi chronicled every step of their relationship. Inevitably, rumors of a split surfaced, and in 2005 Pitt was found palling around with a new bombshell, Angelina Jolie. Every red-blooded US News fan asked themselves, “How could this guy ruin such a good thing? They were perfect together!” As the world turns, The LEGO Group(TLG) now finds itself in a similar love triangle with its two pre-teen flagship lines, Ninjago and Legends of Chima. Ninjago, a wildly successful theme whose popularity was fueled in large part by its television series, has had three subtheme releases since its inception in early 2012, and its retired sets have seen consistent, and sometimes spectacular, gains. However, Ninjago didn’t fit in LEGO’s strategic plan, so it was discontinued for a new, more exotic pre-teen flagship theme, Legends of Chima(LoC).

Legends of Chima is a newly released LEGO theme that, similar to Ninjago, is targeted to pre-teen boys ages 4-11. Chima’s marketing strategy has followed Ninjago’s, most notably adding an upcoming television series, and a secondary line of non-build toys – Chima’s Speedorz.

TLG’s plan to kill the Ninjago theme brought some heated complaints from fans, and Chima likely felt some of the pushback from this unpopular decision. This vocal skepticism of the line has been loud, with LEGO Fans and Brickpicker members alike openly questioning Chima’s broad appeal and potential for secondary market gains. This noise has obscured the theme’s fledgling popularity: the first two episodes that aired on January 16 on Cartoon Network garnered viewership of 1.5 million, good for the tenth highest rated show on cable that night. As a follow up, the third episode aired on March 28 with another 1.45 million viewers tuning in, good for the fifth most watched show on cable that night. As a comparison, Ninjago averaged nearly the same number of viewers per show as Chima’s first two episodes in its second season. Investors should not ignore these high ratings for Chima’s first three episodes. The show received these strong ratings despite the benefit of a routine schedule, an established fan base of the theme, or even a significant marketing blitz to kick-off the TV series. These strong ratings numbers really point to the latent popularity of the theme, and as long as LEGO can provide appealing story lines and good characters to their target demo, Chima should be awash in fans by the end of the first season.

Now that we know Chima’s popularity is potentially in Ninjago’s league, we can use the Ninjago theme as a model to assess the secondary market profitability for Chima. Before dissecting Ninjago, all investors need to know that both the Ninjago and Chima themes are, at their core, play sets intended for their target 4- to 11-year-old boy demographic. They are not display builds or construction sets aimed at TFOLs(Teen Fans of LEGO) and AFOLs(Adult Fans of LEGO). As a result, the gains of retired sets from both Ninjago and Chima will never match the explosive growth of bellwether sets such as 10179 UCS Millennium Falcon and 10189 Taj Mahal, nor should they be judged in that context. There are still plenty of opportunities for secondary growth, and we’ve already seen strong returns from retired sets of the Ninjago line.

In case you’re new to Brickpicker, or have been attending Fight Club instead of LEGO investing, Ninjago returns have been great. Here is a sampling of some of the better performing build sets from the theme:

A quick review of the entire theme’s retired construction set lineup shows only one loser: 2506 Skull Truck. It retired in Q4 2012, has a secondary market value of $58, slightly under the $60 MSRP, and has seen gains in the secondary market every month since it retired in December. Chances are even 2506 will be net positive in the next few months. All of the other retired build sets have a positive market value, with most returning CAGRs(Compound Annual Growth Rate) between 10%-40%. The positive exception has performance of the dragons. With the exception of the recently retired Fire Temple, every retired dragon set has doubled in value. Also, keep in mind none of the Ninjago sets have been retired for more than a year and a half, so if these market values plateau, their CAGRs will fall.

Now that we’ve seen the popularity of Ninjago reflected in its secondary market values, we can assess how this may extend to the Legends of Chima’s theme. To start, let’s assess whether there are any parallels between the first releases of the Ninjago and Chima sets:

NINJAGO play/build sets – released Q1, 2011

 
LEGENDS OF CHIMA play/build sets – released Q1, 2013

Comparing the first releases of these two themes is illuminating. First, Ninjago’s Q1 2011 release included a nice mix of mini-sets, vehicles, and bases, while Chima’s first release is almost exclusively vehicles. I think this aspect has turned off LEGO fans outside the target demographic to the theme. Typically, bases and structures are important to a theme because they’re anchor toys, meaning the rest of the released sets are designed to play with the base. Bases are usually larger, and tend to have more playability, details and depth. They also tend to draw the investment interest since they are larger sets and easier to flip or hold for profits. Without a true base among the first release of Chima themes, it’s obvious why there’s been a generally negative reaction to Chima on Brickpicker.

Interestingly, there are also three brick and mortar exclusive sets in this initial run. I’m not sure whether this has ever been done for the first release of a theme, but this could make for some high returns on the secondary market if any of them go EOL quickly, albeit a rarity for exclusives.

The next release of Chima sets will include two bases (Lion and Croc), a new animal (Gorilla) vehicle, a combination base/vehicle, and another vehicle. These new sets should broaden the theme significantly and put it on par with Ninjago’s first release. Interestingly, the next release will also include six Hero Factory-type mega-figs for each of the main tribes of Chima: Lion, Eagle and Gorilla as “good guys” and Crocodile, Wolf and Raven as “bad guys”. These new maxi-figs represent a bit of a departure from Ninjago’s marketing, and will broaden the theme’s product line further than Ninjago’s.

How well will the Chima theme perform post EOL(End of Line)? I believe a lot will depend on the success of the television show. Ninjago’s TV series success was due in large part to the captivating story line, and the sets really captured some of its highlights well. To be successful, Legends of Chima will also need to have a vibrant storyline to drive its popularity since all the other elements appear to be in place: a great setting, deep characters, and a strong backstory. If the writers deliver a compelling, seamless plot that can be woven throughout the season, Legends of Chima will match the popularity of Ninjago. If there is no consistent storyline or quest that strings the episodes together, Chima’s popularity will nose dive and secondary market values will follow it down.

Assuming Chima’s storyline shines and its popularity approaches Ninjago’s, 70010 Lion Chi Temple is poised to be the strongest performer post-EOL. While it hasn’t even been released yet, there are a few key factors that really put it above all others: it’s a base, it’s the largest set of the theme, and it’s of an iconic location within Chima. I also like 70014 Croc Swamp Hideout, the other base of the theme, and 70006 Cragger’s Command Ship, a boat, to both perform well post-EOL. All three of these have unique colored bricks (the deep yellow/gold of the Lions and the olive green of the Crocs) that aren’t found in any other set in a significant quantity, and both appear to be very well detailed. Here are how the first run of Ninjago bases fared:

Both base sets posted very solid gains, and I would expect the trend to continue for 70010 and 70014, with Lion Chi Temple trending toward Garmadon’s Dark Fortress and Croc Swamp Hideout trending toward Spinjitsu Dojo’s more modest gains based upon the price point.

I think the rest of the vehicle lineup will provide surprisingly good returns similar to Ninjago’s vehicles, typically in the 10-40% CAGR range 1-2 years after retirement. I also really like 70012 Razar’s Chi Raider, and think it has a chance to perform better than most of Chima’s line up. It comes with a mini-set in addition to the vehicle, a rarity for Chima sets, and jet black color scheme and bird-like shaping really gives this vehicle some visual appeal. As mentioned, it’s also a Walmart exclusive in the US so production is smaller than non-exclusives. It also reminds me a little like the Ninjago dragon, although admittedly dragons register much higher than ravens on the “cool scale”. If this vehicle plays a distinct part of the storyline, it could become a real hit, although so far the Ravens have played a bit part in the first two episodes.

If that’s not enough Chima to consider for investment, LEGO has released LoC Speedorz sets, Chima’s equivalent to Ninjago’s Spinners. Unlike the Spinners, Speedorz are like small “zip” cars that utilize a toothed rip cord to spin the wheel of a single-wheel cart that holds one minifig. Speedorz sets also contain Lego bricks that build challenges for the Speedorz. The Speedorz actually work better than the spinners: they are simpler to operate, give a satisfying “buzz” when spun, and really go a long way on a hard floor. According to Lego S@H, there are four Speedorz sets that are close to retirement: 70101 Target Practice, 70102 CHI Waterfall, 70103 Boulder Bowling and 70113 CHI Battles. Their performance may provide another clue to whether Chima is gaining Ninjago-like traction. Each single Speedorz set is $15, with two Speedorz sets running $20, so it would be easy to pick up one of each of these to speculate on Chima returns. If you intend on making strong, Spinner-like gains, you should plan on holding these until the end of the year. This will give them a chance to become scarce, and the television show will likely be nearing the end of its season to give them a bump in popularity. As always, limited production runs + popular theme = post-retirement profit.

LEGO has made some curious decisions for its Legends of Chima theme. The first wave of sets is nearly all vehicles, creating an unbalanced lineup. And while the release of the television series was planned to follow the release of the toys by five months, it seems that a television series release closer to the toy release could have provided stronger initial sales to counteract some of the negative reaction to the theme among LEGO faithful.

With all that said, Legends of Chima is still poised to ramp up its popularity once the television series begins in earnest. Assuming a successful television show fueled by a robust storyline, there’s no reason Chima can’t reach the secondary market heights Ninjago has already seen. In a strange turn, LEGO recently announced Ninjago was returning in 2014 with a new television series and a new wave of sets. Starting in 2014, LEGO will have a love triangle on it hands! While it remains to be seen whether both themes can remain popular while being sold concurrently, Chima has the year to prove its concept and develop a fan base. When considering a future Chima investment, expect solid gains nearing those of Ninjago if the TV show hits, but don’t expect to sell any sets post-EOL before the end of 2014. If the TV show bombs, Chima investors may be in for a repeat of Thelma and Louise. Invest accordingly.  

“ED”itor's Notes

As a 45-year-old man that buys, builds and invests in LEGO sets, I am not afraid to tell you that I like the Legends of Chima theme very much. I can say this without reservation. As Quacs so deftly pointed out, the Legends of Chima theme draws a lot of comparisons to the super popular Ninjago theme, which I am also a huge fan of. The parallels are striking in fact. While I am not a fan of the TV shows of either theme, I can appreciate the quality of the cartoons and can see why people love them. I believe the popularity for the Legends of Chima LEGO theme will run hand in hand with the TV show and its own popularity.

It is my belief, though, that these sets also have some creative and cool building aspects to them that make them winners, even if the show's ratings don't impress. The colors of the sets are very interesting and rare in the LEGO world and the minifigure variety and uniqueness is also compelling. While I really don't spend a lot of time learning all the names of the sets in these sorts of fantasy themes, I know what I like and will buy multiples of many of the larger structures(bases) and vehicles of the theme. Sets like the 70006 Cragger's Command Ship, 70014 Croc Swamp Hideout and 70010 Lion Chi Temple look like potential strong performers in the LEGO secondary market. All in all, like Quacs, I like the new Legends of Chima theme as a LEGO investment. Don't poo poo the childish nature of the theme. Many LEGO investors wrote off the Ninjago theme and missed some tremendous gains. Learn from history and give these a shot. I think you will like the results in a couple of years...

 

One of the first things that I did when I got my hands on Lego bricks as a child was to build a house.  Generally I liked to renovate quite a bit and keep my minifigures in quality digs.  Also, I had quite a few minifigures and they all needed a place to go in my city.  Where do the ubiquitous police officers and fire fighters go after a long shift?  Back in the late 80’s, there was no easy solution to this problem.   In the last few years, I think The Lego Group has done an exceptional job of providing some really nifty Creator series houses that offer great playability and renovation possibilities to house the previously homeless.  

In this segment, I would like to highlight the past growth of a few Creator houses to determine the investment potential of recently released and still available sets.  Let's take a look at some of the Creator Houses that have been retired for several years:

#4954: Model Town Home

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: This detailed set includes instructions for 3 different models, plus all the pieces you'll need to create your own original model! Features a garage that opens and closes to store a sporty car, plus lots of roof pieces, windows and doors. Includes extra elements for light fixtures, chimney, flowers and tons more to create the house of your dreams! Lift off the roof to see inside! Garage door opens and closes! Model Town House stands 9" (23 cm) high! Includes instructions to build 3 different models!  

#4956: House

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Build the house of your dreams with LEGO Creator! This spectacular set includes instructions for 3 different house models, plus all the parts you'll need to design your own original creations. Add a garage, driveway and fence in the yard - the possibilities are endless! Features plenty of pieces for roofs, walls, doors, windows, even trees and gardens! Lift off the roof to see inside! Add a mailbox, porch lights and other realistic details! Includes building instructions for 3 models and inspiration for more!  

#4996: Beach House

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Need to get away? Relax in your very own beach house! This colorful building is packed with fun and realistic details, from the big sunlit windows to the barbecue and umbrella. Includes instructions for rebuilding into a cozy café or towering apartment building! Second floor lifts off to see stairs and fireplace on the first floor! Second floor has a balcony and a skylight that opens! Outside there is a patio with table, umbrella and chairs, and even a barbeque grill with chicken! Realistic details include mailbox, doorbell, flowers, walkway, light fixtures, chimney, tree and lots of windows! Beach House stands over 6.5" (17cm) high and includes a 5" (13cm) x 10" (25cm) baseplate Award Winner: iParenting Media's Excellent Products of 2008 2008 Parent's Choice Recommended San Diego Family's Holiday List Option Consummator's 5 Star Rating Oppenheim Toy Portfolio's Gold Seal NAPPA Honors Award iParenting Media's 2008 Excellent Products CTTC's 3 Stars Creative Child Magazine's Preferred Choice Award  

#6754: Family Home

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:3 houses in 1! Build a classic family home filled from wall to wall with great details, including an awning, window shutters, a terrace area and picnic bench, and even a bird bath and duck pond with a buildable duck. When you're done, take it all apart and rebuild it as a charming bungalow or a lovely Mediterranean-style villa -- instructions included for all 3! A cool 3-in-1 building experience! Features great details such as awning, shutters, bird bath, terrace area and picnic bench! Rebuilds into a bungalow or a Mediterranean villa! Family Home measures 10" (26cm) long and 9" (23cm) tall Award Winner: 2009 Parents' Choice Recommended National Parenting Center's Seal of Approval  

#5891: Apple Tree House

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build a 3-in-1 classic family house! This modern country home with an apple tree outside is full of fun and realistic details, including a working mailbox with letters inside, a satellite dish on the roof, a basketball net and lawnmower, opening front and garage doors, a ladder up to the attic and more! Includes 3-in-1 instructions for rebuilding into a tall townhouse or a relaxing summer home.

• Mailbox, lawnmower, outdoor light, water tap in the garden and much more!
• Lift the roof and play inside!
• 3 models in 1! Rebuild into a tall townhouse or summer home!

#5766: Log Cabin

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Escape to the LEGO® countryside in this 3-in-1 Log Cabin! Packed with great details, including an open fire with rotisserie, wooden logs, tree and opening doors and windows, this log cabin is an ideal wilderness getaway. Minifigure included and ready for backwoods adventure, with backpack, paddle and canoe. Rebuild into a country retreat or a river hut.

• Includes one minifigure with backpack
• Features open fire with chicken on rotisserie, wooden logs, tree, opening doors and windows, canoe with paddle, and horn ornament
• Unique dark red roof
• Remove the roof and hinging wall section to play inside!
• The first LEGO® Creator set to include a minifigure!
• 3 models in 1: Rebuilds into a country retreat and a river hut
• River Hut features a brook, bridge, outdoor stove and furniture
• Country Retreat features a garden, street lamp and porch light
• Cabin measures over 5” (12cm) wide and 5” (12cm) tall.

#5770: Lighthouse Island

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Keep the harbor safe with the 3-in-1 lighthouse! Everything you need for a safe ocean cove is right here! This 3-in-1 lighthouse rebuilds into a sturdy boathouse with a warning light and a cozy seafood restaurant! Use the binoculars as you peer out of the lighthouse for incoming ships! Press the roof to activate the LEGO® light brick and turn the handle to rotate the mirror to warn ships lost in the fog! Open the back of the lighthouse to access the stove and ladder. Once the ships are safe, rebuild into a boathouse to dock your motorboat or change into a seafood restaurant with a light-up oven to offer the sailors a warm meal.  

• Includes minifigure
• Features jetty with motorboat, LEGO® light brick, binoculars, stove, ladder, grill, 2 buildable seagulls and 2 fish
• 3 models in 1: lighthouse rebuilds into a boathouse with lifeboat or seafood restaurant with fishing boat
• Features LEGO® light brick, rotating mirror and removable back for easy access
• Spin the boat’s propellors!
• Shine the light to guide passing ships!
• Launch the boat from the Lifeboat House with the handle!
• Light the fire in the fish grill of the Seafood Restaurant!
• Lighthouse measures 10” (25cm) tall and 8” (20cm) wide
• Boat measures over 4” (10cm) long and 2” (5cm) wide
• Lifeboat House measures over 8” (21cm) long, 7” (16cm) wide and 5” (12cm) tall
• Seafood Restaurant measures over 9” (23cm) long, 4” (12cm) wide and 5” (13cm) tall

#5771: Hillside House

LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build your dream home with 3-in-1 style! No matter what sort of home you dream of, this 3-in-1 hillside house is packed with details to please every style. Ring the sound brick doorbell, hear the dog bark, open the roof to access top floor and walk up the stairs in this two story dwelling. Park the car in the garage or pull up a folding chair as you grill your lunch on the patio! For a change of scenery, rebuild into a smaller home with a greenhouse or create a more contemporary home, sure to impress the whole neighborhood.  

• Includes minifigure, dog and blue car
• Features a 2 story interior with hinged roof, sound brick, stairs, fireplace, garage, patio with grill, opening windows and balcony
• Packed with accessories including grilling charcoal, hotdogs, translucent elements, water spout and realistic lights
• Ring the door bell or hear the dog bark with the LEGO® sound brick!
• Open the roof to play inside or remove the second floor to play downstairs!
• 3 models in 1: hillside house rebuilds into smaller house with greenhouse or a modern home
• Hear the doorbells of the Modern House and the House with Greenhouse!
• Lift the roof or open the doors to play inside the Modern House and the House with Greenhouse!
• Measures over 10” (25cm) long, 10” (25cm) wide and 7” (17cm) tall
• Blue car measures over 3” (7cm) long and 1” (2cm) tall
• Modern House measures over 10” (25cm) wide, 10” (25cm) long and 7” (19cm) tall
• House with Greenhouse measures over 10” (25cm) wide, 5” (13cm) long and 5” (14cm) tall

#7346: Seaside House

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build your 3-in-1 dream seaside home! Enjoy life by the sea in your very own 3-in-1 Seaside House – made to minifigure scale! Go surfing on the surfboard, use the outdoor shower and then grill a feast on the beach. Just watch out for the pesky seagull sitting in the palm tree – he's hungry too! This detailed Seaside House also includes an opening roof and removable top floor for easy access. When you're ready for a different seaside building, use the supplied alternative building steps to rebuild it into a house with a beach hut or cute vacation apartment. Includes surfer minifigure.  

• Features 2-story interior with opening roof, removable top floor, double doors, veranda and shower
• Includes surfer minifigure, seagull, crab and fish
• Packed with accessories including life ring, surfboard, grill, sand castle and even a wave in the sea!
• A great 3-in-1 building experience – rebuild into a house with beach hut or vacation apartment!
• Go surfing!
• Grill a feast on the beach!
• Watch out for the hungry seagull!
• House with beach hut features a stream with bridge, palm tree and drink machine in the hut
• Vacation apartment features sea jetty, terrace and patio furniture
• Seaside House measures over 7" (17cm) high, 5" (13cm) wide and 9" (24cm) long
• House with beach hut measures over 5" (14cm) high, 5" (12cm) wide and 9" (24cm) long
• Vacation apartment measures over 8" (20cm) high, 5" (13cm) wide and 7" (18cm) long

“ED”itor's Notes:  These “house” Creator sets have “under the radar” written all over them.  To be quite honest, I never paid them any mind...to my detriment.  There are some solid performers among these sets.  Maybe it was the lack of multiple minifigures or just the simple designs, whatever the reason, I should have paid more attention to them.  I usually like investing in LEGO sets I can see myself building and have bought many other Creator sets in the past.  Jet planes, dinosaurs and various polybags have come to mind, but I always blew off these very quaint and practical LEGO sets.  I won't anymore.  These sets are perfect for diversifying your Brickfolio.  Mix in a couple of Ninjago and Monster Fighter sets, with a sprinkle of Friends and STAR WARS and you have a nicely balanced collection... 
 

As I sift daily through the various LEGO forums and blogs to keep informed on the latest developments in the LEGO world, one particular phrase commonly appears in a majority of the topics...MINI FIGURES.  LEGO fans love mini figures.  LEGO mini figures are a driving force to the popularity and longevity of the brand.  It got me thinking about what LEGO sets have the most mini figures in them.  Think about it, most LEGO sets that have even a single mini figure are more valuable and/or more popular than LEGO sets without them(...of course there are exceptions, such as the Sculpture, Large Scale Model and Ultimate Collector Series STAR WARS sets).  So if one mini figure makes a LEGO set a more intriguing purchase, how about a LEGO set with multiple mini figures?  They have to be more valuable, right?  Which LEGO sets/themes have the most mini figures in them?  The LEGO “Chess” sets.  Let's take a closer look at them...

  Not including this years 853373-1: LEGO Kingdoms Chess Set, there have been 5 Chess sets released since 2005.  Here is the LEGO.com description and some key points about the five LEGO Chess sets:

  Knight's Kingdom Chess Set(G678):

  Play an exciting game of chess with real LEGO Knights! Choose your color and you're ready to begin. Will you checkmate your opponent's king and win, or will you go down in defeat? It's a game of skill and strategy that's fun for chess fans and LEGO fans too! Includes full-size chess board (measures 10 x 10 inches/ 25.4 x 25.4 cm) with sturdy storage case featuring leather handle & bindings and snap closure. Chess board is held inside carrying case with touch fasteners -- play at home or on the go! Total of 32 chess pieces, including 24 mini figures! Storage case includes compartments to hold them all!

BrickPicker.com says: Basic Lego Chess set with 24 Kingdoms mini figures.  The first of the Lego Chess sets.  Nice packaging and excellent playability.

    Viking's Chess Set(G577): Pillage your opponent in this exciting game of skill and strategy! This exclusive LEGO Vikings Chess set includes a total of 32 chess pieces, featuring 24 minifigures. Just choose your color and you're ready to begin! One-piece chess board measures 10" x 10" (25.4 x 25.4 cm). Includes sturdy carrying case with leather handle, snap closures, touch fastener for holding board in place and storage compartments for each piece. 32 chess pieces include 24 LEGO Vikings minifigures! Available exclusively from LEGO!  

BrickPicker.com says: Very similar to the above Knight's Kingdom Chess set.  Basic Lego Chess set with a Viking theme and 24 Viking mini figures.  This set also has quality packaging and the playability is above average.

    Castle Chess Set(852001): Battle your opponent in this exciting game of skill and strategy! This exclusive LEGO Castle Chess Set includes a total of 32 chess pieces, featuring 24 minifigures. Just choose your side and you're ready to play! One-piece chess board measures 10" x 10" (25 cm x 25 cm)! Includes 32 chess pieces featuring 24 LEGO minifigures including knights, skeletons, wizard, king and princess! Includes sturdy carrying case with leather handle, snap closures and storage compartments for each piece!  

BrickPicker.com says: This LEGO Chess set is a little more detailed than the Knight's Kingdom and Vikings Chess set.  The packaging/storage box is quite nice and keeps the pieces and board in easy to maintain sections.  The mini figures are a bit more varied and detailed.  Overall, an improvement from the earlier LEGO Chess sets.

    Castle GIANT Chess Set(852293): There's never been a chess set like this one before! Now you can build the biggest and best LEGO chess board of all time, covered in incredible LEGO Castle details and complete with a dungeon, armory, and decorative dragon heads'¦and that's just the board itself! Pieces include king, queen, good and evil wizards, witch, knights, dwarves, trolls, skeleton warriors and horses, castle turrets, rolling siege towers, and more. It's the ultimate LEGO set for any chess player, collector, or LEGO Castle fan! Includes 31 minifigures, 2 giant trolls, 2 horses, 2 skeleton horses and 2 dragon heads! Minifigures are ready for battle with armor, swords, shields, and other cool accessories! It's a battle of good dwarves and knights vs. evil trolls and skeletons! Build the 4 realms in the corners of the chess board - the skeleton realm, troll realm, dwarf realm and castle realm! Measures 17" (43cm) squared! Complete with a giant storage case, measuring over 24" (61cm) high, 20" (50cm) wide and 7" (17cm) deep.

BrickPicker.com says: Spectacular LEGO Chess set.  Whether you play Chess or not, you can appreciate the amount of detail and love that went into this creation.  Over 2000 pieces and 31 mini figures make up this wonderful set.  Trolls, skeleton horses, Dragon heads, castles and dungeons make up this Chess set.  The packaging/storage box is probably the most stylish of all LEGO boxes ever produced in my opinion.  It looks like a huge antique book.  Very nice.  The board, once completed, is huge and the mini figures are quite interesting and varied.  A bit pricey, but worth every penny or pound in my opinion.  One of my favorite all time LEGO sets!

  Pirate's Chess Set(852751):
* No LEGO description available

BrickPicker.com says:  Another basic LEGO Chess set, this time with a Pirate theme instead of Kingdoms or Vikings theme.  Nice set.  Standard 24 mini figure count.  As with the previous sets, the variety of the mini figures is adequate and the packaging is very nice and usable.  An overall above average LEGO set.

  Well, from the above descriptions, you can see that the LEGO Chess Sets as a whole come with a substantial amount of mini figures.  Each set comes with at least 24 and the Castle Giant Chess Set comes with 33, but how does this translate into value when the Chess sets hit the secondary LEGO market?  Take a look at the below chart which illustrates the amount the 5 main LEGO Chess sets released since 2005 have appreciated in value:    

    Overall, LEGO Chess Sets have posted quite solid returns over the past 7 years.  While they might not be the investment juggernauts of STAR WARS and Modular Buildings sets, the Chess sets are no slouches either.  With % 'increases' of 116% to 182%, the Chess sets make a worthwhile addition to any LEGO collection.  Each set contains a minimum of 24 mini figures and that in itself is a valuable commodity.  New Chess sets like the 853373-1: LEGO Kingdoms Chess Set, could be quite a value at $49.99(US) for 28 mini figures.  What other set can you find 28 LEGO mini figures for less than $50?  I don't know of many, if any.  On a personal note, The Castle Giant Chess Set (852293) is a "work of art" in my opinion and I would highly recommend this set to any serious LEGO investor/collector.  The set is a bit steep in the secondary market, but it has been making a steady move upward in value and I see room to grow.  Also, I am waiting for LEGO to release a STAR WARS LEGO Chess Set (known as 'Holochess' to all you STAR WARS fans) that was being played  by Chewbacca and R2-D2 in The New Hope.  That would be a LEGO Chess set that might rival the 10179 Millennium Falcon...

Jabba Desilijic Tiure...AKA...Jabba the Hutt.  The biggest Alien slug this side of Tatooine.  But are the LEGO sets designed around this "festering, mountainous pustule"worth anything on the LEGO secondary market?  Are the older Jabba LEGO sets "sluggish" when financial growth and appreciation are concerned, or are they a worthwhile investment, "prized" by LEGO investors and collectors?  Also, how does the recent Turkish Mosque incident affect the new Jabba the Hutt LEGO sets...if at all?  Let's begin by looking at the first generation Jabba sets.

  I was never a huge Jabba the Hutt fan to be quite honest.  Out of all the STAR WARS characters that played somewhat major roles in the films, Jabba and Jar Jar Binks ran neck and neck in the least likeable category for STAR WARS characters in my opinion.  That being said, as an avid collector of STAR WARS LEGO sets, I did purchase the original four Jabba-related LEGO sets years back and stored them away.  Fast forward a few years and I noticed these rather simple and uninspiring STAR WARS LEGO sets(One can make a case about the Sail Barge being an interesting set) were appreciating very well.  Take a look at the chart below of the four original Jabba LEGO sets:

Set Name	Set #	Pieces (MiniFigs)	Launch Year	MSRP (US$)	Current Price (US$)	Current ROI (%)	High Price (US$) (Date)	High ROI (%)	CAGR(%)
Jabba's Message	4475	46(3)	2003	6.99	34.59	394.85	49.85 6/2012	614.59	17.35
Jabba's Prize	4476	40(2)	2003	6.99	35.86	413.02	49.35 4/2012	606	17.76
Jabba's Palace	4480	231(4)	2003	29.99	140.48	368.42	209.35 3/2012	598.06	16.7
Jabba's Sail Barge	6210	781	2006	74.99	326.3	335.12	406.57 5/2012	442.16	23.38

The first three Jabba sets were released in the same year and were meant to work together as a set.  As stated earlier, these sets were very basic and besides a couple interesting minifigures like Bib Fortuna, a half naked Princess Leia, and a fat maxifigure named Jabba, there wasn't much to get LEGO investors and collectors excited.  Yet, these three small sets exploded in growth and averaged around 600% ROI(Return on Investment) at their high water mark.  Maybe it was the uniqueness of the Jabba character or their low cost, whatever the reason, these three sets ended up being quite profitable to those LEGO fans that owned them.  Three years later, the Jabba Sail Barge was released and replicated the Sarlacc monster scene, quite well I may add.  The Sail Barge was realistic and had 800 pieces and 8 minifigures, which is great for a $75 set.  It made for a very nice display set...and play set.  This Jabba set also did very well, exhibiting over 400% ROI at its high point.  The point I am trying to make is that the first version of the Jabba the Hutt sets did quite well in the secondary LEGO market, even being somewhat ordinary.  They have peaked in value from the looks of it, but you cannot scoff at a 600% Return on Investment for three of the four sets and even the Sail Barge returned 400% growth.  Will this translate to the newer remakes of the sets that  are still available today?  And how will the potential early retirement of the new 9516 Jabba's Place affect its future value and the other new Jabba sets?  Let's take a look at the four new Jabba the Hutt-related sets:  
 

Set Name	Set #	Pieces (MiniFigs)	Launch Year	MSRP (US$)	Current Price (US$)	ROI One Month (%)	ROI Six Month (%)	ROI Total (%)	CAGR(%)
Desert Skiff	9496	213(4)	2013	19.99	26.4	11.25	2.68	5.64	5.64

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Escape from the jaws of the Sarlacc aboard the Desert Skiff! Hovering over the deadly Sarlacc Pit, Luke prepares to meet his fate aboard the Desert Skiff. Will he be made to walk the plank and be eaten by the ferocious Sarlacc? Or will his friend Lando Calrissian help him escape the clutches of the renowned bounty hunter, Boba Fett? You decide! Includes 4 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Lando Calrissian, Boba Fett and Kithaba.  
 

• Includes 4 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Lando Calrissian, Boba Fett and Kithaba
• Features Desert Skiff and Sarlacc Pit
• Desert Skiff features retractable plank, flick missile and weapons locker
• Sarlacc Pit features opening mouth large enough to fit a minifigure
• Also includes 4 blasters, Lightsaber and axe
• Escape the jaws of the Sarlacc!
• Overpower Boba Fett and Kithaba!
• Fire the missile!
• Desert Skiff measures over 1" (5cm) high and 9" (24cm) long
• Sarlacc Pit measures over 3" (10cm) high and 3" (9 cm) wide

BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: While not a Jabba set per se, the Desert Skiff plays an important role in the Sarlacc Pit scene in the Return of the Jedi, along with Jabba and his sail barge.  Unlike the older 6210 Jabba's Sail Barge, which included the Desert Skiff and Sarlacc monster, these new sets separate the new 75020 Jabba's Sail Barge and Desert Skiff into two distinct sets.  If you want to complete the scene, you need the 9496 Desert Skiff to do so.  As for the set itself, I really like the set.  With over 200 pieces and 4 quality minifigures, the set is a decent deal at $25.  What's even better is this set gets discounted quite frequently around the $17-$20 range, so buy multiples of this set if possible.  It is quite a value and is an excellent LEGO set for the novice LEGO investor or investor with limited funds.  
 

Set Name	Set #	Pieces (MiniFigs)	Launch Year	MSRP (US$)	Current Price (US$)	ROI One Month (%)	ROI Six Month (%)	ROI Total (%)	CAGR(%)
Rancor Pit	75005	380(4)	2013	59.99	58.14	-10.84	N/A	-3.08	-3.08

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Help Luke escape the clutches of the mighty rancor! Build a famous scene from Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi™ with this stackable set! Jedi Master Luke Skywalker is trapped in the Rancor™ Pit beneath Jabba the Hutt’s Palace and must escape. Look for a way out before the gate lifts and the mighty rancor makes an entrance! Battle the rancor with the bone before he eats the Gamorrean guard. Then, find the hidden compartment with a secret key or drop the gate on the space beast before it’s too late! Combine with LEGO® Star Wars™ 9516 Jabba’s Palace for a stackable scene with a trapdoor into the Rancor Pit! Includes rancor, skeleton and 3 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Malakili and Gamorrean Guard.  

 

• Includes rancor, skeleton and 3 minifigures: Luke Skywalker, Malakili and a Gamorrean guard
• Features opening gate, secret room and hidden compartment
• Rancor features movable arms, jaw, hands and fingers
• Accessories include bone, 2 keys, pitchfork and a bucket
• Find the hidden key in the secret compartment!
• Open the gate or smash it down onto the rancor!
• Collect the first-ever LEGO® Star Wars™ rancor creature!
• Rancor Pit measures over 6" (16cm) high, 7" (19cm) wide and 7" (20cm) deep
• Combine with LEGO Star Wars™ 9516 Jabba’s Palace for a stackable scene with trapdoor into the Rancor Pit!
• Rancor stands over 3" (10cm) tall
   

BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The Rancor Pit is a rather interesting set.  By itself, it almost looks incomplete, but in tandem with the 9516 Jabba's Palace, it makes for a rather unique and wonderful play and display LEGO set(s).  Taking a look at just the Rancor Pit set, one would be rather unimpressed as a whole.  Besides the awesome Rancor monster maxifigure and a somewhat cool Malakili minifigure, the rest of the set is rather uninspiring in my opinion.  With almost 400 pieces, it's not a real value for $59.99 and looks unfinished by itself.  There are some cute features like the skeleton and large gate that slides up and down, but otherwise, it's nothing special...until you match it with the 9516 Jabba's Palace.  Then, the Rancor Pit shines and becomes a must buy.  The combined 75005/9516 is quite an impressive display together...and very playable at the same time.  From an investment standpoint, I consider the Rancor Pit and Jabba's Palace as one unit and plan to market them that way in the future.  For every Jabba's Palace I own, I also own a Rancor Pit.  With all the recent activity with a possible early EOL for the Jabba's Palace, you have to wonder  about the future of this set as well.  Maybe an earlier EOL for this set is a possibility.  Regardless, see if you can pick one up at a discount.  I have seen them in the low $50 range.  Overall, a must have for any STAR WARS LEGO fan or LEGO investor.  
 

Set Name	Set #	Pieces (MiniFigs)	Launch Year	MSRP (US$)	Current Price (US$)	ROI One Month (%)	ROI Six Month (%)	ROI Total (%)	CAGR(%)
Jabba's Palace	9516	717(9)	2012	119.99	86.62	-8.16	-27.34	-27.81	-27.81

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Rescue Han Solo from Jabba the Hutt's desert palace! At Jabba's Palace™ on Tatooine, Princess Leia is disguised as Boushh as she and Chewbacca try to rescue the carbonite-frozen Han Solo. Can she get past the roof-mounted missiles, defense guns and surveillance equipment to reach them? Or will Jabba and his motley band of followers capture the princess and entrap her beneath Jabba's sliding throne? Includes 9 minifigures: Jabba, Salacious Crumb, Bib Fortuna, Gamorrean Guard, Oola, Han Solo, Princess Leia in Boushh outfit, Chewbacca and B'omarr Monk.  

• Includes 9 minifigures: Jabba, Salacious Crumb, Bib Fortuna, Gamorrean Guard, Oola, Han Solo, Princess Leia in Boushh outfit, Chewbacca and B'omarr Monk
• Features sliding throne with trap door and hidden treasure, entrance gate with movable guns, flick missile on detachable roof and detachable watchtower
• Also includes Han Solo in carbonite, handcuffs and Jabba's water pipe
• Weapons include medium blaster, blaster pistol, blaster rifle, thermal detonator, axe and Boushh's lance blade
• Jabba the Hutt features poseable head, body and arms!
• Avoid the trap door!
• Release Han from his carbonite prison!
• Jabba's Palace™ measures over 9" (25cm) high, 11" (29cm) wide and 7" (19cm) deep
   

BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: WOW...What can you say about this set that hasn't been discussed over the recent Turkish Mosque incident?  Let's rewind for a minute and take a look at this set before the recent activity.  The 9516 Jabba's Palace was a remake of the much smaller 4480 Jabba's Palace, that was released in 2003.  Not only was the older Jabba's Palace smaller, it was just very basic and inaccurate, unlike the new 9516 which is a very close replica(Maybe too close...LOL) to the movie structure and characters.  Yet, even with its shortcomings, the 4480 Jabba's Palace appreciated very, very well...exhibiting almost 600% growth from retail to its peak on March of 2012!  In comparison, the new Jabba's Palace is very well done, with accurate and creative minifigures and a structure that is a very close depiction of the movie Jabba's Palace.  So will this set appreciate like the older version?  Who knows?  But I really like the set on numerous levels, even standing alone...and I REALLY like the set when built in combination with the 75005 Rancor Pit.  I like the future of this set(s), even without the most recent rumors of a premature retirement and feel that regardless of the EOL outcome of the set, future growth in the LEGO secondary market will be strong to very strong.  

Set Name	Set #	Pieces (MiniFigs)	Launch Year	MSRP (US$)	Current Price (US$)	ROI One Month (%)	ROI Six Month (%)	ROI Total (%)	CAGR(%)
Jabba's Sail Barge	75020	850(6)	2013	119.99	NOT YET RELEASED

  LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: NOT YET RELEASED

BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: There is not any definitive points I can make on the set yet because it has not been released, but from the looks of the current pictures available, the newer Jabba's Sail Barge looks smaller.  Even though the piece count is higher, it looks like less large brown plates were used to reproduce the ship in the similar manner as the older 6210 Sail Barge, thus using more smaller pieces but a smaller model.  Also missing from the set is the Desert Skiff and Sarlacc Monster from the earlier version, along with a couple of minifigures.  A simple solution to this would be to combine the 9496 Desert Skiff with this set to complete the scene.  As with the new Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit combo, I feel the combination of the new Jabba's Sail Barge and Desert Skiff is a winner from a build and investment standpoint.  Even though the set looks slightly inferior in some ways, I still see strong future growth for this set.

  You've come a long way, baby...and that's how I feel about the remakes of the Jabba the Hutt LEGO sets.  Taking the whole Turkish Mosque situation out of the Jabba's Palace potential in the secondary LEGO market value, I see a very solid future for this set and the others in the category.  Before the rumors of early EOL, I was already buying multiples of Jabba's Palace and the Rancor Pit to package together for future resale.  I love the remake.  I love the combination of the two.  Just a wonderful display and play set(s).  The new Jabba's Palace is a 99.99% improvement over the original.  The Rancor Pit only sweetens the deal in my opinion.  The Rancor maxifigure is one bad @$$ figure and the combination of the two sets works flawlessly.  Another big plus is the improved Jabba maxifigure, which is leaps and bounds better than the old one.  As for the new Sail Barge, it is probably a push when compared to the older set.  Both are quality sets.  Throw in the Desert Skiff with the new Sail Barge and you have another winning combination that will undoubtedly do well in the future investment market.

  Now throw in the potential early EOL and unique story of the Jabba's Palace and you have the makings of a superb investment.  As of this writing, the set was still in stock at many major retailers, including LEGO S@H and Amazon.com, so you can still buy one at MSRP.  Whether or not you will see $88 prices for this set again, I cannot say, but even at retail prices, these sets, when matched up together, could be very profitable in the future.  You saw the madness on a small scale when the Jabba's Palace was hard to find, imagine what will happen when and if LEGO pulls the proverbial plug on the set.  You also have to take into consideration the future of the Rancor Pit if Jabba's Palace is not there to complete the package.  Does that go to an early grave as well?  At this juncture, it's hard to pinpoint an approximate EOL date besides The LEGO Group's late 2013 notification.  The less time on the primary market, the more valuable the set will eventually become.  My personal opinion on the claim of racial and religious undertones of the set is much ado about nothing.  All LEGO did was reproduce the actual STAR WARS movie structure in a very accurate manner.  If anyone needs to shoulder some blame for insulting Muslims and their religion, maybe George Lucas needs to step forward.  It's really the design and characters of Lucas that is causing a stir, but as I said before, it is a minor issue and I don't believe any harm was meant from any party involved.

  So, any way you slice it, the Jabba the Hutt sets are potential big winners in my book.  Like their earlier versions, these new Jabba sets should do very well when they are eventually retired...maybe even before they are retired as illustrated by the shortages and high eBay auction prices of recent days.  Although Jabba is one unsavory and unattractive character, his LEGO sets are top notch and very attractive as potential investments.  If you haven't bought a Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit, do so.  You never know when the EOL timer runs out...  

Hi! For those who don’t know me(which is probably almost all of you, possibly even myself) I’ve been dabbling in collectibles for about two years. I have had a fair amount of success in gig posters and licensed movie posters(think Mondo, etc.) and limited edition vinyl records. In the last six months I’ve been really trying to get a foot in the door of the LEGO world. First, I love LEGO bricks. Second, I’m familiar with my post office, eBay and PayPal, and have a ready account to sell with. Third, I want to collect some LEGO sets for my future children (the wife is pregnant with a baby girl) to build, but also make some money with.

One of the first things any new LEGO investor probably hears is “buy what you love.” If that were the case, I would only have a lot of STAR WARS, Lord of the Rings/Hobbit and cool Modulars. Yes, if things went really badly, I could happily build these sets(although how many Bag Ends does any one man need in his Lord of the Rings/Hobbit MOC?) but it would be a little limiting. Since I found out I am going to be the proud new father of a baby girl, I started looking at Friends. And then I went further, back to Belville, which was one of the earlier girl LEGO themes that preceded Friends. I was drawn to the 7582 Royal Summer Palace and the 7586 Sunshine Home, a couple of the bigger sets from that line that have long since been retired. Not many are for sale, in terms of numbers, but the CAGR(Compound Annual Growth Rate) and ROI(Return on Investment) from retail are solid, at 17%/158% and 11%/71% respectively . I would gladly go back in time several years and scoop up a few of these sets for investment purposes. So...does that mean, despite my personal lack of enthusiasm for Friends LEGO theme, that it will be a solid investment? Let's take a look...

The current numbers suggest, yes, yes, a million times yes! The first wave of sets from January of 2012 are getting pretty hard to find and are already showing some nice gains. Here is a list of the Top 15 Friends sets based on CAGR. I call them the Friend's Fabulous Fifteen:

Image	Set #	Set Name	Pieces	MSRP(US$)	Current Price	CAGR(%)
	30102	Olivia's Desk	26	3.97	7.74	94.96
	3186	Emma's Horse Trailer	218	24.99	44.12	76.55
	30105	Stephanie's Mailbox	41	3.99	6.91	73.18
	3942	Heartlake Dog Show	183	19.99	33.21	66.13
	3930	Stephanie's Outdoor Bakery	45	5.99	9.64	60.43
	3063	Heartlake Flying	195	19.99	31.59	58.03
	3931	Emma's Splash Pool	43	5.99	9.09	51.75
	3065	Olivia's Tree House	191	19.99	29.45	47.32
	3936	Emma's Fashion Studio	79	9.99	14.7	47.25
	3937	Olivia's Speedboat	65	9.99	14.63	46.45
	3939	Mia's Bedroom	85	9.99	14.35	43.64
	3932	Andrea's Stage	87	9.99	14.14	41.54
	3184	Camper	309	29.99	42.06	40.25
	3183	Stephanies's Cool Convertible	130	14.99	44.12	38.29

  There are a few others that have shown really nice gains from this first wave that could become quite sought after in the secondary market for those investors coming late to the game as well as for children who desire(and plead with their parents) to get sets that are unavailable at retail. The nice thing about these smallish sets is that even at double, triple or even quadruple the initial retail price, they still remain affordable to most parents with kids who want to rip open these sets and play with them. My child doesn’t play with Friends LEGO sets(yet) – she is just an embryo, people! – but I think that if a birthday or Christmas were on the horizon and my daughter had sets A, B and C that I would shell out $30 for Emma’s Fashion Studio (reg. Price $9.99) to complete her collection.

  Because most of the sets are small to medium size, I don’t think there are going to be massive monetary gains, even if there are solid CAGR gains. That will keep a lot of investors away. Also, they don’t appeal to (most?) men, perhaps not the majority of AFOLs and not to the majority of young boys, but I think that leaves an opening for the savvy investor who is happy to make a little money here and there. If you can track down the early 2012 sets at retail or the mid-2012 sets at a discount(recent sales have seen some of these sets at quite attractive prices), I would say throw caution to the wind, ignore the advisers who only want you to invest in what you love and instead invest in a hot product with a matching cartoon and solid CAGRs!

VITAL STATISTICS:
Brickpicker Alias: Veegs
Investment to Date: About $5,500
Sales to Date: $0
Wife (Currently Pregnant) Anger Level: xx/10: 6.5
Most Recent Acquisition: 2 Vampyre Castles @$73.50 each  

There has been a flurry of activity with this set within the last couple days, and it seems to be causing a lot of LEGO investors to change their feelings toward it. Amazon had around 550 units for sale on January 9, and Toys R Us was offering it online on January 11. Even the official Minecraft site, www.JINX.com, got in on the fun and offered a small number of these for sale the same day.

With all these recent offerings, the general feeling of this set seems to have shifted to an unusually negative outlook for a lot of investors. This is understandable. We are talking about a set that started out with a stated production run of only 10,000 units. Then, due to the overwhelming and unexpected popularity of Minecraft as a game, another undisclosed number of these sets became available, and then another, and then another…

It seems to be a recurring theme these days. Just when people are thinking, "Okay, that has got to be it, right?," another batch of them shows up for sale somewhere. A $34.99 set that very recently commanded over $100 on the secondary market is now quickly becoming something a lot of people are rolling their eyes at. The going rate on eBay and Amazon is $60 on a good day, and will likely drop with all the recent quantities offered.

The exclusive feel of the Minecraft set is starting to feel… not so exclusive. There are so many of them out there that the value seems to be plunging. A lot of people who ordered them recently are already discussing their plans to hopefully flip them quickly and make a small $20 profit if they're lucky.
Before people get too hung up in this kind of thinking, there are many aspects of the Minecraft set that should be carefully considered before they make the rash decision of dumping their stock. There is no need to feel this negativity toward a set that we were all so excited about only a few short weeks ago. The value of the Minecraft set is still alive and well, and I am here to tell you why and hopefully put your fears to rest.

Please consider the following:

Minecraft has indeed been offered for sale far more times than any of us expected. But it sells out in what is probably record timing EVERY time. The Amazon offering on January 9 was gone in under an hour. That is 550+ units in under 60 minutes! On January 11, I was notified the instant the sets became available on the Toys R Us website. Within 15-20 minutes they were gone. Then another forum poster pointed out that they were available on the Minecraft developer site. Within 10 minutes…you guessed it…gone!

Does this sound like the makings of a set that has limited or waning interest? Absolutely not! Sure, the number of sets in existence keeps going up, and at a frustratingly unpredictable rate, but they disappear as suddenly as they reappear.

When people invest in a product to hopefully make a profit on it, it comes as no surprise when they feel frustration at the fact that the value of the product is cut in half in a couple weeks' time. It is easy to jump on board with something that is rapidly soaring in value. Naturally, it is equally easy to lose faith in the same product once that value seems to peak, and then rapidly declines.

So here we are, watching the value of Minecraft Micro World sink faster than the Titanic. But this is one ship that it would be wise to not jump off of just yet. Keep in mind that there are many sets that we have all collected that were readily available on retail shelves everywhere for over two years that became very profitable once they were retired. The operative word in that sentence being EVERYWHERE. Minecraft has certainly not been available everywhere. When it is available, you miss it if you dare to blink. It has pretty much always been available NOWHERE. The market may currently feel flooded with Minecraft sets, but that is only because we are all used to tripling our investment on it almost immediately. We all know that LEGO investing requires patience above all else, but we are not used to having to exercise that kind of patience with Minecraft. If we give it time, this situation will even itself out.

If you need to recoup your $35 investment right away and ensure a small profit, go ahead and sell. But the smart money says it is time to start treating this set like we would any other LEGO set; get it while you can, sell it for a lot once it's gone. It just means we need to adjust our thinking and accept the fact that Minecraft is not the dynamite short-term investment it once was.

When compared to your average STAR WARS or Super Heroes set, Minecraft will still ultimately have much more limited production and availability numbers. As the Minecraft game continues to get more and more popular, the demand and interest for its LEGO equivalent will also go up. And when the game fizzles out, you are still left with a LEGO set that was very underproduced by comparison. Either way, this is a set that is going to be talked about for years to come. Until we are seeing 21102 Minecraft Micro World sets on Walmart and Target retail shelves everywhere, we've got nothing to worry about. So sit tight everyone. Hold on to those Minecraft sets for a while. Give them a chance. You can thank me later.