What will these do in the after market though? Are they worth picking up, especially at such very low prices?

Well there are a couple of issues before we really get into this. I decided to make a pros and cons list (if you read my blog you know this is how I do everything). So here we go:

Pros

• Cheap sets with a good number of pieces and minifigures along with a planet that is exclusive; no other sets really have things like this.
• Very collectable since there are 4 series now that all share the same attributes. If you get a few of them, you will want them all (I have all the released ones, and 2 of several).
• Can be found on clearance fairly easily.
• Have had very short runs in stores although still widely available on line. If retired soon their limited time in stores could be a plus.
• Very popular among children and collectors.
• Small so very easy to store.

Cons

• Because of the planet, these are hard to ship in something small enough so you are paying a decent amount for shipping.
• Have been very widely sold and bought meaning there will be more around and less people that don't have any.
• Not a whole lot of exclusive pieces and minis. Besides the planet, nothing special.
• Battlepacks offer more minifigures usually which gives people more playability and a little more value for normally the same price.

So as you can see from my list above, I am a little hesitant about these selling well int he aftermarket. The cons above definitely outweigh the pros a bit in my opinion. And with the popularity of some other sets and themes and the questions these cons raise, it seems there are some better investments out there.

However, there are some things I think could be an x-factor to make a few of these sleeper sets. First off, they are not going to be targeted by investors except for those who buy them at clearance prices. Second, SW battlepacks have done pretty well with most of them coming close to doubling in value (There are several other articles that have touched on this so I will spare you more of the same). Also, if you check out a few of these sets I am about to discuss, you will see they have relatively held their values on Ebay meaning chances are they aren't going down now that they are gone. Plus, new ones seem to keep coming out keeping popularity around and driving the old ones off shelves.

This combined with a few positives from above like the limited runs and the clearance prices make me feel a few of these are worth taking a look at. So here are my picks for the planet series. Note: I still would only recommend bulk buying these for under 7-8 dollars each. This way you can cover yourself if I turn out to be wrong. Make your own decisions, this is just what I am looking at and banking on.

Lego 9676 Tie Interceptor and Death Star

My Analysis: I think this is just an awesome little set for 9.99 and it includes a Death Star. You absolutely cannot beat that for a small set. The minifigure is the same one that appears in many of the tie sets, so it is nothing amazing. However, I think that the ship looks really great and does the Tie Interceptor pretty good justice for that few pieces.

The two things that really make me like this set for an investment is the Death Star and the tie interceptor itself. The Death Star is great in this set because there are only two other sets with a Death Star, and they are both UCS and cost hundreds of dollars. So for the smaller collector, this is a set worth buying just to get the Death Star.

The Tie Interceptor itself helps as well. It is a very popular ship as a sleeker version of the Tie Fighter itself. Looking back at the Tie Interceptor's past, 6306, 6965 (Polybag), and 7181 (UCS) all have over 10% CAGR. That's nothing amazing, but substantial growth for sets that all have been around for 7-8 years. The length of time since the last Tie Interceptor helps as well.

Currently this set is already over 12% CAGR sitting around $11 on Ebay. I would definitely jump on these if I found a bunch for <$7.

9679 AT-ST and Endor

My Analysis: Everyone loves the AT-ST. This set is really cool because it is always fun to have a smaller model of a very complex and detailed vehicle. Everyone loves the BrickMaster AT-AT for the same reason. Endor is pretty popular as well, but is not exclusive as it will be in one of the series 4 sets as a planet as well.

There is another plus to this set in that the AT-ST pilot redesign is exclusive to this set. That is going to always add a plus to the set as long as they don't use this in any future sets (which I would doubt as we have a lot of other AT-ST sets).

Another upside is that, at least in my area, these weren't near as available as most of the other planet sets. I think this is because this one was very sought after by children and therefor was always sold out. I know I had to scrounge through tons of targets and Walmarts just to find one.

We do have two pretty direct comparisons to this set in the 20054 polybag AT-ST and the 4486 AT-ST& snowspeeder that both included a smaller version of the AT-ST. 30054 is a cool little set, but not as well built as the planet one (I find mine falls apart if touched). It has still had a 27.34% CAGR. 4486 has been around for 10 years and still has a 15.83% CAGR which is really great for a set that old.

Using all this data, I think this set should be grabbed around $6-7. Put it in a box somewhere and forget about it for a few years and you will pocket 10 bucks per set someday. Not bad for something you can store so easily. Its sitting at 4% CAGR right now without being officially retired so chances are at a discounted price, you wont lose money.

75008 Tie Bomber and Asteroid Field

My Analysis: This set is one of my favorites, mostly because I love the Tie Bomber ship itself and didn't have one until this one came out. I immediately went out to buy one when it hit the shelves. The asteroid field is nothing that great at all, but it does fit well for those that have seen the movie and those that have played the old Tie Fighter and X-Wing games as well as the Nintendo 64 games.

One plus here I see is this one has been very hard to find and the Planet 3 series has somewhat been overshadowed because of the lack of interest in the other two ships in the series. Along with this, the anticipation of the Planet series 4 sets is high as they blow the others out of the water in terms of being iconic parts of the movie. This means this one could really be a big sleeper.

The ship itself is really great for 50 pieces and is very detailed. It's a solid ship and is very popular. This one is going to benefit from the fact that there has only been one other Tie Bomber in the Star Wars Lego series – 4479. 4479 was made 10 years ago and still has a 12.28% CAGR and is sitting at over 3 times retail value. Because there are no other tie bombers, and no others that a lot of people will ever see on shelves, I think this one will become very sought after, especially if these are shown again in the new movies. (I am discounting the one that you could build from pieces of the 4 small sets in the mid 2000s, just because it is harder to count that with it being a sort of exclusive).

I think if you can get these for $8, I would buy a ton of them. I think in 2-3 years these could be at around $25. This would be worth it, especially if you have space problems as these will fit pretty much anywhere.

Final Analysis: I don't want to put a thought out there that these sets are going to be amazing and going to break records because I don't think that. I don't think you should actively seek these out as an investment either. However, I think there are three ways to get these that really make sense:

• Pick them up on clearance: I think we have already gone through this a little, but if you see a bunch of these on clearance anywhere for the prices I have indicated, I would definitely jump. They are definitely worth the very small risk at that price.
• Best Offer – I have touched on this in several other articles, but there are definitely some listings out there of 20 of these sets where you may be able to put in offers to get them down to a pretty good price for an investment.
• Online BOGO and other sale types: Whenever people look online for sales, they always look at the big and popular sets, not at the smaller ones. Sometimes you can really miss a great deal. For instance, if you get $20 off a hundred dollars, then you can get some of the sets above for just $8 a piece.

What do you all think? Do you see any winners in these or the other Planet Series sets?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

The theme has had twenty-three sets released into the market and there was a Lego movie aired on Cartoon Network using the Atlantis sets. The theme only lasted for two years. It began it 2010 and ended in 2011. At the most, the sets are about two to three years old, which is not a lot for investments. Each of the twenty-three sets will be explained and analyzed for their investment potential. Here are the sets:

7976 Ocean Speeder

Description: (All Descriptions are from Lego.com)

Dive deeper in the Ocean Speeder to seize the treasure!

Fearless Lance Spears is diving for the treasures of Atlantis on his Ocean Speeder as a dangerous sea snake spots him! Can he escape the slippery serpent and reach the treasure?

• Includes Lance Spears minifigure with diving gear
• Grab with the Ocean Speeders arms, move it’s propellers and shoot with the harpoon!
• Ocean Speeder measures 3” (7cm) wide
• Features sea snake, treasure and rare gold elements

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 54
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $4.99 USD
• Year released: 2011
• Current value: $5.95 USD
• Current CAGR: 9.20%

Analysis: The Ocean Speeder has a good CAGR after two years. Over the two years, the set has increased in value by ninty-six cents ($0.96 USD) from the retail price. Some of you may think that this is not a lot, but for a small set like this, it is a lot percentage wise, but with money, it is not a significant increase. To make a decent profit on this set, a person must have many of these sets to sell.

7977 Seabed Strider

Description:

Defeat the evil Hammerhead Guardian to claim the treasure!
Walking through the ruins of the lost city of Atlantis on his powerful Seabed Strider, valiant diver Axel Storm discovers the precious golden shield. He transforms his craft into a sleek submarine to return the treasure to the surface, but can he first defeat the trident-carrying Hammerhead Guardian?

• Includes 2 minifigures: Hammerhead Guardian and diver with swim fins, scuba helmet and tank
• 2 in 1 build: Seabed Strider transforms into sleek submarine!
• Sieze the treasure with the Seabed Strider’s grabbers!
• Features sea snake, harpoon, trident, treasure and rare gold elements
• Spin the turbines!
• Grab treasure with Seabed Strider claws!
• Seabed Strider measures 3” (7cm) tall

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 105
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $9.99 USD
• Year released: 2011
• Current value: $10.14 USD
• Current CAGR: 0.75%

Analysis: The Seabed Strider does not have a good CAGR after two years. The CAGR is less than 1%. Over two years the set has gained fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) in value. That is not much for percentage and money. This is not the best investment if you want to make some big money fast. It is a slow growing set.

7978 Angler Attack

Descripition:

Outsmart the Angler Fish and evil guardian to reach the treasure!
Expert diver Dr. Fisher catches sight of an ancient helmet lying among the ruins of LEGO® Atlantis. Just then, the evil Barracuda and giant Angler Fish, with it’s razor-sharp teeth, swim out from the murky depths. Can Dr. Fisher outsmart the deadly creatures to claim the golden helmet and take a photo of the rare fish?

• Includes 2 minifigures: diver with camera and Barracuda guardian with trident
• Minifigure accessories include diver’s helmet, tank and swim fins
• Deep Sea Jet features harpoon, grabbing claws
• Angler Fish measures 7” (17cm) wide, 5” (12cm) long
• Angler Fish features moving fins and tail!
• Includes treasure chest with jewels, golden helmet and special gold elements
• Snap the jaws of the Angler Fish!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 200
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $19.99 USD
• Year released: 2011
• Current value: $27.18 USD
• Current CAGR: 16.61%

Analysis: The Angler Attack set has a great CAGR for two years. Over that period of time, the set has gained $7.19 USD in value. That is a decent percentage from the retail price. This set is a great investment. To make a lot of money off this set, a person would have to have a lot of these sets.

7984 Deep Sea Raider

Description:

Drill a path to the riches!
Recruited to dig and drill through the dangerous ruins, excavation expert Dr. Brains from the LEGO® Power Miners is trying to get to the treasure! Open the back compartment and release the mini sub for tight squeezes! Can he outwit the angry hammerhead guardian to retrieve the treasure and legendary body armor? Set includes 2 minifigures and mini sub.

• Includes 2 minifigures: diver and hammerhead guardian
• Deep Sea Raider features opening cockpit, grabber and functioning drill
• Open the back compartment to reveal the mini sub!
• Features flexible falling pillar, lobster, treasure chest with jewels and body armor
• Deep Sea Raider measures 6” wide (15cm) and 8” long (20cm)
• Mini sub measures over 2” wide (5cm) and 2” long (5cm)

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 265
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $29.99 USD
• Year released: 2011
• Current value: $25.53 USD
• Current CAGR: -7.73%

Analysis: The Deep Sea Raider has a bad CAGR after two years. Over that period of time, the set has lost $4.46 USD in value. This set is not a set to be used for investing. The set may have been good for investing if, the set was purchased on a really good sale. Even if that happened, the set may still have not been profitable.

7985 City of Atlantis

Description:

Free the golden king in the City of Atlantis!
At long last, the lost City of Atlantis has been discovered! Help Captain Ace Speedman and Professor Sam Rhodes release the golden king from the temple ruins! Avoid the booby traps and falling pillar as you battle the guardians. Whatever you do, stay out of the dungeon and away from the claws of the giant crab. Set includes 6 minifigures and Deep Sea Sub with flick missiles.

• Includes 6 minifigures: giant crab, lobster guardian, barracuda guardian, golden king and 2 divers
• Features Deep Sea Sub with flick missiles and claws
• Swing the axe and drop the pillars!
• Unlock the golden king with the treasure key lock function!
• City of Atlantis measures 9” (22cm) wide, 9 (22cm) tall and 12” (30cm) long
• Deep Sea Sub measures 5” (12cm) wide, and 5” (12cm) long

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 686
• Number of minifiugres: 5
• Retail price: $69.99 USD
• Year released: 2011
• Current value: $74.40 USD
• Current CAGR: 3.10%

Analysis: The City of Atlantis is one of the larger sets in the Atlantis theme. There is a good amount of minifigures in the set. The CAGR for this set is decent. Over the two years, I expected the set to have a bigger value and CAGR. The set has only gained $4.41 USD in value over two years. The set is profitable, but for large profits off this set, there must be a large amount of sets sold.

20013 Neptune Microsub

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 63
• Number of minifigures: 0
• Retail price: N/A
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $7.32 USD
• Current CAGR: N/A

Analysis: The 20013 Neptune Microsub is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set comes in a polybag. The set has a great value for a mini set. This set would be a great investment if it is at the right price.

30040 Octopus

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 42
• Number of minifigures: 0
• Retail pirce: N/A
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $5.93 USD
• Current CAGR: N/A

Analysis: The 30040 Octopus is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set comes in a poly bag. The set has a good value for a mini set. The set is a good investment if it is at the right price.

30041 Piranha

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 49
• Number of minifigures: 0
• Retail pirce: N/A
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $9.49 USD
• Current CAGR: N/A

Analysis: The 30041Pirahna is one of the four Atlantis mini sets. The set has a great value for being a mini set. The set comes in a polybag. The set is a great investment if it is at the right price.

30042 Mini Sub

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 42
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: N/A
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $3.06 USD
• Current CAGR: N/A

Analysis: The 30042 Mini Sub is one of four mini sets from the Atlantis theme. The set is the only mini set to have a minifigure. The set comes in a polybag. The set is a decent investment if it is at the right price.

8056 Monster Crab Clash

Description:

Beware the monster crab’s claws!
On a dangerous deep-sea mission to recover the orange Atlantis treasure key from the murky depths of the ocean, the heroic diver comes face-to-face with the treasure’s mighty guardian: a giant crab with powerful crushing claws!

• Set includes 1 heroic diver minifigure!
• Collectable orange Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all!
• Features monster crab with snapping claws and moveable legs!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 68
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $6.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $9.88 USD
• Current CAGR: 12.23%

Analysis: The 8056 Monster Crab Clash has a great CAGR after three years. The set has increased in value by $2.89 USD over the past three years. The set is a great investment. The set is profitable, but for big profits, a lot of sets must be sold.

8057 Wreck Raider

Description:

Capture the blue treasure key from the Shark Warrior!
While exploring the ocean aboard his high-speed scooter sub, the deep-sea diver has found one of the treasure keys leading to the sunken city of Atlantis! But will the Wreck Raider’s twin turbines and flick-launching harpoons be enough to defeat the trident-wielding Shark Warrior and capture the blue key? Includes Shark Warrior with trident and deep-sea diver minifigures.

• Set includes Shark Warrior minifigure and diver minifigure.
• Collectable blue Atlantis treasure key included!
• Measures over 3" (8cm) long!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 64
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $9.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $9.50 USD
• Current CAGR: -1.66%

Analysis: The 8057 Wreck Raider has a bad CAGR. It is negative. The set has dropped in value by forty-four cents ($0.44 USD) over three years. That is not a lot, but it still contributes to the negative CAGR. The set is not the best investment from all the Atlantis sets.

8058 Guardian of the Deep

Description:

This treasure guardian packs a bite!
In his search for the red Atlantis treasure key, the deep-sea diver has encountered one of the deadliest guardian creatures of all: an enormous black shark covered in Atlantean markings! Will the diver’s harpoon and swimming skills be enough to escape the shark’s snapping jaws and thrashing tail with the precious key, and its clue to the lost city’s location?

• The heroic diver minifigure has an awesome harpoon!
• Red Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all!
• Fearsome shark guardian has biting jaws, moving tail and poseable head!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 144
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $14.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $21.06 USD
• Current CAGR: 12.00%

Analysis: The 8058 Guardian of the Deep set has a great CAGR. The set has increased $6.07 USD over the past three years. That is a good investment. For big profits, there would have to be many sets sold.

8059 Seabed Scavenger

Description:

Explore the sea floor, but watch out for danger!
Leaving no coral-covered rock unturned, the 3-wheeled Seabed Scavenger rolls along the ocean floor in search of clues to the location of Atlantis. Suddenly, a glint of light – it’s the fabled green treasure key, guarded by a fierce Manta Warrior! Even with the deep-sea vehicle’s grab claw, spinning saw and flick-firing torpedoes, this is going to be one tough battle! Includes Manta Warrior with trident and deep-sea diver minifigures.

• Includes Manta Warrior minifigure and 1 diver minifigure.
• Two flick firing torpedos!
• Spinning saw weapon and grab claw!!
• Collectable green treasure key! Collect each one!
• Measures 10" (25cm) long!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 119
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $14.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $14.60 USD
• Current CAGR: -0.87%

Analysis: The 8059 Seabed Scavenger has a bad CAGR. Although the set has a bad CAGR, the set has only lost thirty-nine cents ($0.39 USD) over three years. That is very little for three years. The set is a decent investment if the set was purchased on a sale, but not at retail.

8060 Typhoon Turbo Sub

Description:

The Typhoon Turbo Sub dives into action!
Deep at the bottom of the ocean, the yellow Atlantis Treasure Key is guarded by a ferocious Shark Warrior. Send the Typhoon Turbo Sub into battle – when the fight gets tough, its powerful high-speed turbine engines flip around to reveal a key-grabbing claw and hidden torpedo launcher! It’s time to discover the lost secrets of Atlantis!

• Set includes 2 minifigures: 1 heroic diver and 1 Shark Warrior!
• Yellow Atlantis treasure key included; collect them all!
• Flip over the rotating sub propellers!
• Sub is armed with torpedo shooter and flick fire missiles!
• Claw grabs and holds the treasure key!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 197
• Number of minifigures: 2
• Retail price: $24.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $15.47 USD
• Current CAGR: -14.77%

Analysis: The 8060 Typhoon Turbo Sub has a really bad value and CAGR after three years. The set has decreased in value by $9.52 USD. For investing, that is a lot of money lost for a single set. This set is not the best investment set from the Atlantis theme.

8061 Gateway of the Squid

Description:

Unlock the Gateway of the Squid…if you dare!
The Deep Salvage Crew divers have found their first big clue to the location of Atlantis: an ancient underwater temple with gates that automatically open at the turn of a treasure key! Inside are traps, treasures and mighty guardians, including an octopus prison cage, a fearsome Squid Warrior, and a monstrous giant squid with flailing tentacles and massive snapping jaws. Can the divers reach the golden treasure chest at the heart of the temple, or will they be captured for daring to trespass in this deep-sea domain? Includes Squid Warrior with trident and 2 deep-sea diver minifigures.

• Includes Squid Warrior minifigure and 2 diver minifigures!
• Collectable blue treasure key included; collect them all!
• Trap door opens to capture the divers!
• Open the temple gates with blue treasure key!
• Measures 15" (38cm) long!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 354
• Number of minifigures: 3
• Retail price: $39.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $20.49 USD
• Current CAGR: -19.98%

Analysis: The 8061 Gateway of the Squid is one of the worst investing sets from the Atlantis theme. The set has lost $19.50 USD in value. That is about half the retail price. With this, the CAGR for the set is -19.98%, which is not good for investing. The set might be profitable if it was purchased at a heavy discount like 60% off or higher.

8072 Sea Jet

Description:

Hunt for undersea treasure!
Search out Atlantis treasure keys, guardian sea creatures and sunken treasure with the sleek and speedy Sea Jet! Includes deep-sea diver minifigure.

• Includes Sea Jet and deep-sea diver minifigure!
• Jet features control flaps for quick evasive tactics!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 23
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $3.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $4.71 USD
• Current CAGR: 5.69%

Analysis: The 8072 Sea Jet is a great investment. The set has a good CAGR. The set has gained seventy-two cents ($0.72 USD) in value over the past three years. Some might think that it is not a lot money wise, but it is a lot percentage wise. The set has almost gained 25% over its retail price.

8073 Manta Warrior

Description:

Beware this undersea warrior of Atlantis!
Treasure-seekers beware – lurking behind this seaweed-covered rock is a fearsome Manta Warrior, prepared to battle anyone who dares to search for the long-lost sunken city of Atlantis! Includes Manta Warrior with trident.

• Set includes Manta Warrior minifigure and seaweed-covered rock!
• Manta Warrior is armed with a fierce trident!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 13
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $3.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $4.71 USD
• Current CAGR: 5.69%

Analysis: The 8073 Manta Warrior is a great mini set investment. The set has a CAGR of 5.69%. That is a good CAGR. The set has increased in value by seventy-two cents ($0.72 USD). That is almost 25% of its retail price. It is a good set to invest in.

8075 Neptune Carrier

Description:

Search for Atlantis aboard the ultimate battle submarine!
The Deep Salvage Crew divers have discovered the green Atlantis treasure key, but when the fierce Manta Warrior and its trained battle stingray attack, will they be able to keep it in their search for the sunken city? Launch your defense with the armored Neptune Carrier submarine, with quad flick-launching torpedoes, a scout mini-sub and a quick-deploying seabed rover to even the odds on the ocean floor! Includes Manta Warrior with trident and 3 deep-sea diver minifigures.

• Set includes Carrier sub, scout mini-sub and seabed rover!
• Includes Manta warrior minifigure plus 3 diver minifigures!
• Collectable green Atlantis treasure key included! Collect them all!
• Fire the four flick-launching torpedoes!
• Mini sub scouts the ocean floor!
• Roving vehicle scours the seabed!
• Measures 12" (30cm) long!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 476
• Number of minifigures: 4
• Retail price: $59.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $42.17 USD
• Current CAGR: -11.09%

Analysis: The 8075 Neptune Carrier is a bad investment. The set has a CAGR of -11.09%. That is not good. The set has lost $17.82 USD in value over the past three years. That is almost 33% of its value lost. From an investment standpoint that is one of the worst investments from the Atlantis theme.

8076 Deep Sea Striker

Description:

Divers beware of the scorpion’s stinging tail!
On a mission to recover a precious green Atlantis treasure key, The Deep Sea Salvage Crew diver rides the speedy Sea Scooter along the bottom of the ocean! When he encounters the key’s powerful scorpion guardian, can he avoid the scorpion’s vicious tail, snapping claws and biting jaws and recover the key?

• Includes 1 diver minifigure with sea scooter
• Features collectable green Atlantis treasure key
• Sea scooter equipped with dual harpoons and treasure key grab claw
• Guardian scorpion measures over 9” (23cm) long

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 260
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $19.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $14.61 USD
• Current CAGR: -9.92%

Analysis: The 8076 Deep Sea Striker is not one of the best investment choices from the Atlantis theme. The set has a value of $14.61. That means the set has decreased by $5.38 USD in value. This means the set has a CAGR of -9.92%. This is one of the worst investments from the Atlantis theme.

8077 Atlantis Exploration HQ

Description:

Launch the search for Atlantis from the diver’s headquarters!
From the safety of the exploration HQ, the divers launch missions in search of Atlantis and search for the yellow Atlantis treasure key. Transform the base into the mobile command sub to take on the Manta Warrior!

• Includes 3 minifigures: 2 divers and 1 Manta Warrior
• Transforms into command submarine with flick-firing torpedos, map room, laboratory and repair bay
• Includes collectable yellow Atlantis treasure key
• Measures 13” (34cm) wide , over 6” (15cm) tall

Statistcis:

• Number of pieces: 473
• Number of minifigures: 3
• Retail price: $49.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $40.47 USD
• Current CAGR: -6.80%

Analysis: The 8077 Atlantis Exploration HQ is a bad investment. The set has a current value of $40.47 USD. That means that the set has lost $9.52 USD. This means the CAGR for the set is -6.8%. That is a bad CAGR. The set is a bad investment from the Atlantis theme, but there are other sets that are worse.

8078 Portal of Atlantis

Description:

The portal to the lost city of Atlantis has been discovered!
Getting through it will be the diver’s greatest challenge yet! The divers must get past hidden traps, shark guardian statues that come alive, Squid and Shark Warriors, and the Portal Emperor before unlocking the portal with the five Atlantis treasure keys.

• Includes 7 minifigures: 3 divers, 1 Portal Emperor, 1 Squid Warrior, 1 Shark Warrior, 1 skeleton
• Features all 5 Atlantis treasure keys -- green, blue, yellow, red and orange
• Divers must beware of the hidden traps!
• Turn a treasure key into the keystone to open the portal to Atlantis!
• Shark castle measures 18" (46cm) wide and over 12” (32cm) tall

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 1,007
• Number of minifigures: 7
• Retail price $99.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $65.61 USD
• Current CAGR: -13.10%

Analysis: The 8078 Portal of Atlantis is a great set to have but it is a horrible investment. The set has a current value of $65.61 USD. This means the set has lost $34.38 USD in value over three years. This means the set has a CAGR of -13.10%. Even if the set was on sale, it would not be a good investment. There would have to be a good sale for this set to be profitable and even then there would not be much profit.

8079 Shadow Snapper

Description:

Keep an eye on the shadows when this Atlantis guardian is around!
Covered in armored spikes and bristling with razor-sharp claws and teeth, the ferocious, amphibious Shadow Snapper is a deep-sea diver’s worst nightmare! A super-fast combat sub with dual flick-launching torpedoes is the Deep Salvage Crew diver’s only chance to get past this lurking leviathan and retrieve the yellow Atlantis treasure key…but will even this high-speed sub be quick enough for him to escape with the prize? Includes deep-sea diver minifigure.

• Includes Shadow Snapper, combat sub and diver minifigure!
• Yellow Atlantis treasure key included! Collect them all!
• Fire the sub's dual flick-launching torpedoes!
• Super-fast sub's propeller really spins!
• Snapper measures 8" (20cm) long! Sub measures 5" (12cm) long!

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 246
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $29.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $23.70 USD
• Current CAGR: -7.55%

Analysis: The 8079 Shadow Snapper is another Atlantis set that has a negative CAGR. Although it is not as bad as some of the other sets, it is still bad for investing. The set has lost $6.29 USD in value over three years, making the CAGR -7.55%. The set would have been profitable if the set was on sale, but the profit from the set would be very low.

8080 Undersea Explorer

Description:

Battle the guardian serpent with the transforming undersea explorer!

• Searching the darkest depths of the ocean floor for the red Atlantis treasure key, the undersea explorer engages the huge guardian sea serpent! While in rover configuration, the undersea explorer doesn't stand a chance...but transforming into a giant robot, with torpedo launcher and grappling arm, the undersea explorer is more than ready to defend itself!
• Includes 1 heroic diver minifigure
• Features red Atlantis treasure key
• Undersea explorer transforms from seabed rover into robot equipped with torpedo launcher and grapple arm
• Sea serpent measures 13" (33cm) long
• Explorer measures over 5" (14cm) long in rover configuration, over 7" (19cm) tall in robot configuration

Statistics:

• Number of pieces: 364
• Number of minifigures: 1
• Retail price: $39.99 USD
• Year released: 2010
• Current value: $33.27 USD
• Current CAGR: -5.95%

Analysis: The 8080 Undersea Explorer is yet another set that has a negative CAGR. Although the set has lost $6.72 USD in value, it is still an unworthy investment. The set would only be profitable if the set was on sale.

There are many investment winners and losers from the Atlantis theme. While most sets have lost value over time, some sets have gained value. Those sets are the investment winners. Althougth some of the sets did not grow much, I still consider them a good investment. Other sets grew a lot, some of which having high CAGR. If you are investing in the Atlantis theme, pick your sets wisely and they will become deep sea treasure. If not, they will become a sinking investment.

Thanks for reading!
 

I grew up loving the game Roller Coaster Tycoon. It was so fun to be able to put together giant roller coasters and see if the game's customers liked them (most of the time mine were way too big). This is a big plus for the series because this game proved that pretty much everyone wanted to be a roller coaster or theme park designer (This game was one of the most popular games of the late 90s and early 2000s). On top of that, everyone loves to go to the theme parks, even if you like roller coasters or not. TLG also already has a precedent for sets like this in 10196 The Grand Carousel which, if you haven't noticed, is worth 5 times retail 4 years later and is sitting at an insane 49.6% CAGR (In Fact, that is better than any UCS Star Wars set) and the 4957 ferris wheel which has a respectable 21.46% CAGR.

So we have established this line would be really popular, but what sets would it have? Well, I will use the new Lego Delorian to take you into the future to see:

Bumper Cars

When I think of theme parks, I always think of the biggest rides and in doing this article, I was having trouble coming up with smaller sets to fill out the line (One of the reasons I am not TLG). This would be a very popular set because this is one of the most popular rides among kids.

I see this like a Ninjago Spinners set. The set would have a small area for the bumper cars and then two cars with a minifigure each. These would have small motors in them, as well as random driving mechanisms making them bump into each other. Maybe they could even have it so there was a timer and you had to wind them up and then let them go. They would bump each other until one stopped and that made the other the winner!

This set might not be the investors dream, but would be really popular among children if they had it at a $30 price point or so. Who knows, some of the spinners sets have done really well, and the Chime Speedorz may follow that. This could be a big time winner if it were made.

Minifigures:

• Boy bumper car driver
• Girl bumper car driver

Scrambler

I am including this set because it was one of my favorite rides growing up and would work really well as a small playset. If you aren't familiar with this ride, the middle of it spins, while the separate sections of people spin as well. This is not fast, mind you, but in a way that the spinning compliments each other. You feel you are thrown outward, pulled inward, and then thrown outward again. It's very fun, as long as you don't sit on the outside with someone 100 lbs heavier than you on the inside.

The set would include the machine itself as well as the fence around it with the line area for potential riders to stand. It would include 6 minifigures, two per section of the ride (3 scramblers). There would also be a minifigure theme park ride operator as well.

The ride itself could be turned on or manually turned itself so that it would work just as the original ride.

Minifigures:

• 6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.
• 1 theme park operator

Ship Swing

This is another smaller scale set and a ride that is a staple of every amusement park I think I ever gone to. There are tons of different variations of this ride including everything from Aladdin to Space Ships. My favorite though are the old looking boats and pirate ships.

One, we know ships have done really well as Legos looking at the Pirates of the Carribean theme and the Pirates theme. This one could be a smaller version made in that image with a motor on the suspension system to make it swing when you turn on the ride itself. Minifigures:

• Theme Park ride operator
• 4 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.

Drop Tower

I assume you are familiar with one of these: at a lot of parks they have been called the “Big shot” or “Drop Zone”, or “Free Fall”. If you got o a lot of theme parks and like thrill rides, you know this is one of the most popular rides. Honestly most of the time I try to avoid it until very late when I am at a theme park because the line is so long. Being a big time favorite among theme park visitors, of course it would make a great Lego set.

In my eyes, it would include the base of the ride with a theme park worker minifigure and his lever that controls the ride. I would make it so that he could actually switch the lever to make it move.

The ride itself would include a fairly tall tower – I am thinking about two feet tall – with 4 seats on it for the Minifigure customers. This would include moving harnesses that would come down over the minifigures' shoulders when pressed down to keep them in. When the lever is thrown, the ride itself would climb up the tower to the top. Once it got to the top, it would quickly, but safely, drop to the bottom for play-ability sake. This set would be awesome for any kid to play with and look really good for anyone trying to display theme park sets together.

Minifigures:

• 1 theme park operator
• 4 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.

Scenic Train Ride

To me, this is always the ride in the theme parks I don't really care that much about because it's boring to me to just ride around and see stuff. Evidently, the thought of some kind of physical harm becoming me is more what I look for in a ride.

However, to normal people, these are widely popular. A lot of kids love train rides and they are very tame rides for parents. Plus, there is no age limit, so everyone rides them! And, I feel like Lego has done trains before and it has worked out fairly well... hmmm.

I am thinking that this set could be a train with two cars. I prefer old-timey steam engines as I think they look really cool. This would also have a system for real smoke to come out of the steam engine and it would have a little horn that could be pulled. It would also be motorized so it go around the Lego track.

The Lego track would be very large so that you could put other rides inside of it for those of us who would collect the whole theme. Also, the train set would come with a few varying exhibits maybe a small zoo area or maybe some smaller versions of theme park rides they don't do a full Lego set of.

Minifigures:

• Train Conductor
• Train guide – with a microphone to sit at the front of the trian.
• 6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.
• Minifigure animals for the zoo area.

Chair Lift

Another staple for every amusement park out there is the chair lift. This set, while not necessarily being a big time thrill ride, would be one that would appeal to many people just like the Grand Carousel did. First off, it would include a large beautiful mountain side for the lift to bring people up to.

It would include the lift itself as well that would, of course, be motorized so that you could lift minifigures from the bottom of the mountain all the way to the top.

On the top of the of the mountain, there would be a few small modular shops for the minifigures to go into. We all know that we love getting to the top of a mountain after a long lift ride and seeing a bunch of candy shops and souvenir shops to go to. This one would include an ice cream shop, a candy shop, and a souvenir shop. These would all be small but still in the modular theme like the larger sets that are very popular. It should appeal to people who aren't really into theme park rides themselves.

Minifigures:

• Theme Park ride operator
• 6 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.
• Candy shop cashier.
• Ice Cream shop cashier
• Souvenir shop cashier.

Yes this would be a very big set, but can you really sit here and say you don't think it would be a good investment?

Roller Coaster

You knew this was coming. Now, Lego would not be the first. Kinects has had some roller coasters int heir line for quite a while and they have been fairly popular. However, Kinects is not half the company Lego is.

Lego would absolutely make the best model roller coaster ever seen. It could have a loop or two as well as several hills and a barrel roll. Of course. it would also have a chain lift so that it could lift the cars up to the top of the first hill and then of course it would be designed so that the Lego coaster cars would carry their momentum through the whole set.

It would also come with a photo booth at the end of the last big hill that would light up when it sensed the car under it so that it seemed like the minifigures pictures were being taken.

The loading section would be raised from the ground with an exit and entrance path that included ramps down to the ground. Best case scenario, the coaster would be built on a Lego ground that included Trees and Shrubs to really fill out the landscape and make it look like an actual Theme Park roller coaster.

Minifigures:

• 2 theme park ride operators.
• 8 customer minifigures of varying gender, age.

So what makes the theme viable? Well, besides the fact that theme parks are really popular and what we had discussed before with the Lego ferris wheel and grand carousel, these sets have to be done with great detail. They need to capture every feeling of the theme park experience. This could be one of those themes as well that just keeps on going and going as there are 1000s of rides that could be don. Kids and collectors could keep making their theme park bigger and bigger.

The one downside is that there aren't a lot of different minifigures, with a lot of them being customers. So Lego would need to do like the minifigure series and make each customer different in each set. They could also do some special poly-bags that included street performers or other types of theme park workers like maintenance workers. Either way, in my book, this theme would be a total homerun!

What types of theme park sets would you like to see? Do you agree that this would be a popular theme?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

First off, if you have seen Monty Python and the Holy Grail, you know that this movie is has tons of iconic scenes. So I had to choose a few that would really stand out to people that had seen the movie, but offered play-ability to those who haven't.

She Turned Me Into a Newt!

This would be the iconic scene when all of the townsmen bring a young woman that they dressed up as a witch to Sir Bedevere so that he can decide whether she needs to be burned or not. This would include the following minfigures:

• Sir Bedever: His faceplate will just not quite stay up.
• 5 Townspeople including the characters shown in the scene who yell things like “churches” and “Very small rocks”.
• The Witch: She would be an exclusive minifigure and would have a wart on her face, a carrot on her nose and a witch hat.

This set would also come with the platform area for Bedevere and the Witch to stand on with the townspeople below. Along with this, there would be an old time weighing scale with a duck that happens to weigh just as much as the witch minfigure.

It's Just a Flesh Wound: The Black Night Bust

Lego hasn't done an insane amount of these busts, but the ones they have done have been really great. I am mostly referring to the Star Wars sets of Yoda and Darth Maul. The Black Night is an iconic character in the movie though he was only in the movie for about 10 minutes and managed to lose about 20 pints of blood. He is a perfect character to do a bust of, becuase his limbless torso is a very memorable part of the movie.

Now, Lego is a toy company so we would have to make this bust less violent than the actual movie (although even that was pretty fake). Leave out the blood and gore from the arms and legs, I think this would look absolutely awesome. I know I would pay big money for a bust of the Black Night's torso. This would definitely be a display only set so I think a UCS placard like int eh SW theme could really be nice next to this.

The Trojan...Rabbit?

This would be a smaller set, bigger than SW battle packs, but not much over $20. It would be a minifigure-centric set. This would include all of the main characters as well as the Wooden and somewhat flimsy Rabbit that was somehow constructed in the forest with no tools at all while semi-French people watched on.

Minifigures included:

• King Arthur
• Sir Bedevere the Wise
• Sir Lancelot the Brave
• Sir Robin the Not-Wuite-So-Brave-As-Sir-Lancelot
• Sir Galahad the Pure

This would be a big time set for playability and to easily collect all the core minifigures. The Rabbit would have wheels so that it could roll and the characters would fit inside, though they forget to do that. This would fit right along with the castle sets coming up.

Camelot! It's Only a Model

This would be a very special set and out of Lego's normal set type. First off, you would have the Legos to build the front of Camelot's Castle, but that's it. It would literally be only a model. With this set you would get the following minfigures:

• Dennis: The minstrel that carries King Arthur's Coconuts. Of course he would have coconuts in his hands as well as the back pack.
• The prisoner: He would hand from the Camelot wall.

Along with this set you would also get a roundtable. The best part of the set – built in batteries and music. Once turned on, the model would play “Knight's of the Round Table”.

This would be a huge set for playability with the song playing and the prisoner, and would also be an awesome set for display-ability. “It's Only a Model” is one of my favorite quotable lines in the movie so I would love to have a set I could randomly point at and say “Camelot! (It's only a model)”.

The Bridge of Death

This could really be an awesome large scale set and, if done right, could really attract anyone who loves natural architecture whether they like the movie or not. It would include the bridge as well as both of the rock mountains around it supporting it. I am thinking somewhere near 1000 pieces. This would also include the walkway down the sides of the mountain to the bridge as well.

The minifigures would be the best part of this set, coming with:

• King Arthur
• Sir Lancelot the Brave
• Sir Robin the Not-Wuite-So-Brave-As-Sir-Lancelot
• Sir Galahad the Pure
• The Old Man: The bridge keeper

I would also suggest that Lego build in a catapult type system so that when the characters answered the old man incorrectly, they could be easily tossed into the river. If done correctly, this could be a major seller in the line.

Also, though I don't know how possible this is, I would love if this set had a small little system in the river area under the bridge that would shoot up smoke. I am not a science major (more into electronics), but I think it would be awesome if you could make this smoke while playing with it to add to the creepiness.

Look at the bones!

El Guapo mentioned this one in his post in the original thread and, while I was trying to avoid overlap, I have way too many ideas for this set. First off, it would include a giant cave and rocky area in front of the cave that would include tons of minifigure bones lying around to display the carnage that this vicious rabbit has been a part of.

Another section would be a rock line on the opposite side for all of the minifigures to hide from the rabbit. The set would include the following minifigures:

• The soldiers: This would be several matching soldiers that will fall victim to the cute, but vicious Rabbit and his nasty, sharp, pointy teeth. They would have heads that could quickly pop off – maybe some kind of system on the minifigure that popped them off very easily (If Lego will allow that).
• Brother Maynard: He would have a robe on, a giant book from which he could read from and also have a large box which included the Holy Hand Grenade.
• Tim the Enchanter: This would be Tim with his very vibrant outfit.
• Rabbit : This would be a cute little minifigure bunny, but would come with a second rabbit head that would include those nasty, sharp, pointy teeth we have been talking about.

I think this set would have the most play-ability out of all of them. I am 26 and I would totally have no shame in playing with this set. This could be a special exclusive to Lego.com and it would be an investor's dream with the several exclusive minifigures and the rabbit itself.

The knights who say...Icky-Icky-Ptang-Zoop-Boing (ni)

This is one of my all time favorite comedy movie scenes. The first time I watched this movie, I was rolling during this scene. They don't make comedy like this anymore. This set would be a forest scene with a floor for all the minifigures to sit on. It would come with the following minifigures:

• The Three Knights
• King Arthur
• Sir Bedevere
• Roger the Shrubber
• Old Crone: This is the lady they say “Ni” to

Yes I know, a lot of minifigures. But that's not all! This set would also have a tree in the set dubbed “The tallest tree in the forest”. It would also come with a Lego herring and two shrubberies that were at different heights to create a two-level effect with a little path running down the middle.

Play-ability - off the charts! Who wont have hours of fun imitating the voices of the nights and making the minifigures say the word "it" to defeat the nights. You wouldn't have to say "Ni!" to anyone to get them to buy this set.

Ni!

Castle Aaarggh

This is the biggest set in the bunch and a “Hard to Find”. It would include a giant castle as well as a large moat around it. This would also include a large boat for the minifigures to cross the treacherous moat. The minfigures included:

• Three of the FrenchMen
• King Arthur
• Sir Bedevere
• 10 soldiers to represent Arthur's army

This set would also include several traps on the top of the castle, including a catapult for the animals to be thrown at the oncoming soldiers as well as different items that can be dropped down from the top of the castle over top the castle doors.

 I think these are really fun to do and I encourage everyone who regularly write blogs to come up with a theme and do some possible sets. I really enjoyed writing this article. Anything I missed here?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

Today, after being an investor for about 6 months, I've grown to know my local population of 2.5 million people, and what clearance percentages will last, and which ones won't; what prices locals pass, and what they grab.

I'm more than sure that for everyone, these numbers are different, but this is what I have come to realize at my local Targets.

1. Percentage - One of the fastest things that I discovered was that clearances 15% off aren't all that great, and to be honest, for a lot of sets, 30% doesn't cut it. We have a halting 9.25% sales tax, so for something to be worth it and a no brainer, most locals just skip the 30%, and wait for 60%, or even 70%!

2. Knowing Your Local Population - You know the saying "Keep your friends close, and your enemies even closer"? Well that is pure wisdom right here. When buying LEGO, your neighbors and former preschool teacher are your top competition. You can get to know your local population by being at your local LEGO retail stores pretty often, and go to fairly busy locations. Though people often stay less in an aisle if you are there, especially kids, there's still plenty of time to observe in an uncreepy, subtle way. Just pretend that you are engrossed in reading the package description of your can of baked beans, and you'll be fine! What I found was that parents that walk to the toy section of Target literally just walk by. They may walk up to a particular product and even say out loud "Ooh, little Timmy's been wanting this.", and promptly put it back on the shelf. Poor little Timmy. It takes some killer clearance to make these stubborn parents want to grab something from a store, usually upwards of 50%.

3. Dollar Value - Sure, an item can be 50% off, but if it costs $75 at half price, most parents skip over. I've grown to love parents because of this reason. More often than not, they skip to those tiny $9 Creator sets, rather than going to a larger set like Mines of Moria or Goblin King Battle. So, what one of the strategies that I have adapted is waiting longer for large sets to go on steeper clearance. Though I have found clearance Battle Packs and $15-$30 sets scarce, there is almost always an abundance of sets upwards of $45, which is why I can wait for certain deals, no matter how desperate I might be.

Now in general terms, 50% off is a "go get'em" situation, but how about 30%? 15%?
5% - Patience, young Padawan. Unless this set rarely is discounted, like a modular, even 5% isn't that great.
10% - Decent, but not great. Assuming that you aren't charged tax for this, 10% is better for a less discounted set.
15% - This is typically a sign of a large clearance event, in my experiences. 15% could be better, and I would play the wait game with it.
25% - Now we're getting serious! This is probably a pretty good deal, and at this point, you are seeing more definite signs of something bigger. If it's the last on the shelves, I would pounce, but if there are more than 3, then I would wait.
30% - Typically, this is the starting point of Target mark downs, which typically happen on Thursdays. 30% is nearly an auto buy, unless you have a large set that has an MSRP of $70+, and there are more than 3 copies on the shelves.
50% - Though it might seem like a jump from 30-50, there is rarely anything in between. 50% is just about as good as you should hope for on small sets, as they will get scooped up really fast. I'd also pounce on large sets at this point, and as many as possible, in general, if you have the capital to do so.
70%-99% - GO! This is as good as you will get...ever. I've never heard of a store giving out free LEGO on a regular set, nor someone paying you to take them off their hands. MegaBloks or Kre-O, I understand. Not LEGO.

Though extremely painful, the wait game might end up being your best investment friend. Learn who will pounce and when they do so. This helps to maximize your discount, but still get the set in the end.
 

When my local Lego store opened (I say store, I mean shop, because I’m British) I went along pretty sharpish. I was desperate to bulk out my budding Lego collection and headed straight for the Pick A Brick wall. I was informed by a very friendly member of staff that they’d run out of large PAB cups and that instead they’d let me fill the one cup they had left and then put it in a carrier bag to take home and that they’d give me a pound of for the inconvenience. When I paid I asked them if I could have the usual money off sticker and they were delighted to oblige, sticking it on the bag and assuring me it would get me the money off a cup on my next visit.

Months later and my brother (16) and sister (26) were headed for the city. I gave them the bag and asked them to fill a PAB cup on my behalf (after giving them many tips on how to get the most for the money). The story from now on becomes second-hand:

They filled the cup, took it to the counter and presented the voucher. The shop assistant would not allow it. The duty manager told them they wouldn’t accept it. My sister was told they’d never run out of large PAB cups and that they’d never have given the sticker out. The Lego store staff talked and laughed behind the backs of my family. The positive Lego brand ethos was shattered as it was insinuated that my brother and sister were liars.

Eventually, my sister summoned up all her anger (bearing in mind that she had just been through the toughest time in her life – see also the last post) and delivered a blistering repost (no further details) to which the Lego store staff conceded and gave them the money off.

My other sister (who was also there) later emailed Lego from the website detailing the incident. Lego responded in less than 24 hours and offered her the choice of 200 VIP points (£10) or ‘some bricks’. In consultation with me she went for the VIP points which were credited to my account.

I now have ten pounds worth of free money solely for the purposes of ‘investing’ in Lego. Cashback.

Disclaimer: I am in no way advocating fraudulent complaints to the Lego group. Do not go out of your way to engineer a situation about which you could complain. Do not deliberately break your Lego so you can write a narky email. Do not write narky emails – write polite and eloquent ones. Do not screw our beloved Lego group over, even if one or two of their employees sometimes can be a bit daft. If you are a Lego employee, remember ‘the customer is always right’ and that Lego means ‘play well’. If you are a Lego customer who receives great service, don’t hesitate to feed this back to TLG either.
 

First introduced in 2009 with the launch of the Winter Toy Shop (10199), one new set has been added to the line each holiday season and (starting with the 2011 season) one set has been retired each season as well. Given their seasonal nature, these sets are only available from October through December of each year and sold exclusively through LEGO.com and LEGO Stores. The trend that has emerged thus far is for each set in the line to be available for three seasons, and as mentioned, only three months each season. That’s only 9 months of shelf time for any given set! These sets have now become so hotly anticipated that often times they have sold out long before December.

Let’s take a look at the complete line-up and see how each set has fared.

The sets that have gone EOL, Toy Shop and Bakery, have experienced very strong returns for investors. Will this trend continue as the Post Office and (perhaps the best of the current line-up), the Cottage, go EOL as well? So far, the theme’s short history seems to bode well for future returns.

All of the sets in this line have many of the same qualities of the LEGO fan-favorite modular buildings, but at more affordable prices. While the Winter Village sets do not physically connect to one another like the modular buildings, they all go together well to create an ever expanding winter scene. They have the same “you can’t have only one” quality that the modular buildings possess. Let’s look at each set in the series to see what sets them apart.

Toy Shop (10199)

The first set in the series, simply labeled ‘Winter Toy Shop’, featured a grand Christmas tree complete with presents, carolers, a snowman, and of course, a two level toy shop complete on three sides and open in the back (a key difference from the modular sets). Obviously the focus on the launch set was squarely on Christmas. I love the variety of minifigures and the nice touches on the front of the Toy Shop including a wreath, bicolored awning, windows displaying toys, and the light brick on the second story. The set also includes many great micro-builds in the form of the various gifts and the snowman. The Toy Shop was very popular upon release and with so much charm, it is clear why. Its return the following year, with updated packaging, was a welcome sight.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

The holidays are coming, and that means a busy time in the toy maker's workshop!
This scene from a winter wonderland includes a charming shop filled with tools, toys and even a light-up tower window. Outside, minifigures sing carols by the bench and lamp post, ski on the snow drifts, build a snowman and play with snowballs, and decorate the giant Christmas tree with a star, lights and gift-wrapped presents around the base. The Winter Toy shop features hard-to-find elements including a transparent yellow star, transparent globe elements to create a vintage lamp, dark tan tiles, Power Functions Light Brick, new black 1x2x3 windows and a new caroler minifigure face.

Features include:

•Features a toy shop filled with tools and toys and a light up tower window
•Includes 7 minifigures, cat, snowman, jack-in-the-box, stuffed animal, toy train, robot and toy car
•Includes Light Brick for light effects inside the toy shop
•Winter Toy shop measures 7.5" long x 6.7" high x 3.1" wide
•815 pieces

Analysis:

The Toy Shop is a beautiful set and I simply love it. If you were able to purchase one at retail you got a great value for $59.99. 7.4 cents per piece with seven minifigures is an excellent deal. However, at its current valuation of $170 I think it has just about run its course and will likely see its peak during holiday 2013. It’s time to start thinking about selling this set, not buying it. Now let’s turn to the second Winter Village set to go EOL, the Bakery.

The Bakery (10216)

The second set on the list and last seen during the 2012 holiday season is the Bakery. Available from holiday 2010 to holiday 2012, this set continued the three year shelf life observed with the Toy Shop. This set featured a frozen pond with ice skaters, a Christmas tree logging truck and stand along with another great retail addition in the form of a Bakery. I love the nice variety of minifigures, the wonderfully done frozen pond, and detailed store frontage complete with yet another light brick which is used this time to fire up the baker’s breads and pastries. I especially love the minifigure, or I should say half minifigure, that is buried in a snow hill. Details like that really continue the charm of the series.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Return to yesteryear with this festive holiday scene!
It's a winter wonderland in this snow-covered little town! A special-delivery evergreen, all ready for decorating, arrives at the tree-seller's stand by horse-drawn cart, while ice skaters frolic on the frozen pond with colorful lights and a curious owl perched overhead. Just look out for the freshly-shoveled snow piles - one skater has already tumbled in head-first! At the bakery nearby, the friendly baker prepares delicious holiday treats in his oven and rings up sales at the cash register. Push the glowing LEGO Power Functions brick to fill the building with warm interior light! Includes 7 ½ minifigures, snow owl, horse and lots of winter accessories.

· Includes 7 ½ minifigures as well as a snow owl and horse!

· Features LEGO Power Functions light-up brick which lights the interior of the bakery when you push it!

· Includes lots of fun winter accessories like a dark blue minifigure hood with new fur print!

· Prepare holiday treats and ring up sales at the cash register!

· Skate on the frozen pond made of 8x8 transparent blue plates!

· Interesting elements include a camera, tan baguettes, croissants, green apple, 8x8 transparent blue plates, medium blue tiles and even a new 'caramel' color for several brick and arch elements outside the bakery!

· Features an evergreen tree for decorating, tree seller's stand and even a horse-drawn cart!

· Bakery measures 7" (18 cm) wide!

· Completed model (depending on space allocated between the individual parts) measures 16" (40 cm) wide, 12" (30 cm) deep and 7" (18 cm) high!

· Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10222 Winter Village Post Office or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!

Analysis:

The Winter Village Bakery set doubled in price after only a few months into its retirement. This set has certainly been a great buy for investors who were able to grab them before they were sold out. The Bakery maintains the same great qualities that the Toy Shop possessed and offers a lot of the same trademark elements that made that set such a hit. When available at retail, the set offered a great value for $54.99. At 8.0 cents per piece and 7 and a half minifigures, this set was again a real bargain. At over $100, this set should still have room to run, but I wouldn’t be inclined to chase it. I expect it may top out somewhere around $150. Investors struck gold twice with this subtheme. Will the trend continue as current sets go EOL? Will the next set in the line-up, the Post Office, return again for the 2013 holiday season?

Post Office (10222)

The third Winter Village entry is the Post Office. Introduced in 2011, the Post Office has now been available for two holiday seasons. Those like me who missed it the first two times around are hoping it makes a third and final appearance in 2013. It is currently listed on LEGO shop@home as retired. Hopefully that is only due to the fact that we are not in the holiday time frame yet and not a permanent retirement.

The Post Office is another great set in the series, but probably its weakest entry. When I think of all the great things about the holidays, my fondest memories of Christmas don’t include a post office. Ok I guess every village needs a post office to mail letters to Santa, but for a third winter entry the choice of a post office seems a bit odd to me. With that said, TLG did about the best job they could with the subject matter.

The set features a vintage looking mail truck overflowing with gifts, a gazebo for the Christmas two man band to play under, and a double roofed post office with bay window. The windows look fantastic forming a nice curved store front. LEGO pieces don’t naturally lend themselves to forming curves, so I love seeing interesting designs that accomplish this feat in novel ways. The roofs are a nice dark green color with white touches of snow. This is a welcome departure from earlier entries that featured solid white, snow covered roofs, as it adds some variety and color to the scene. The bright red mail truck and mailboxes add great spots of color to the scene as well. Aside from the checkerboard floor and the fireplace, there is not much of interest going on inside the post office. Then again, it’s a post office – what can really be done to spice up the inside of a post office?

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Deliver sacks full of holiday greetings and gifts in the cozy Winter Village Post Office!
Continuing the winter scene series, the Winter Village Post Office is the perfect snow-covered setting. In the cozy post office, the worker is hard at work sorting all the mail into containers and sacks, while upstairs, there's just time for the postman to take a break before setting off in the traditional post car with all the letters and gifts. From the pavilion outside, musicians fill the air with music, while children take in the wintry atmosphere by the park bench before throwing snowballs at each other - the musicians had better get ready to duck!

· Includes 7 minifigures: female post office worker, male postman, female, 2 kids and 2 musicians and a dog!

· Post office features dark-green split roof with snow, fireplace, light brick, table, coffee mug, and lamppost and mailboxes outside!

· Also features evergreen tree and assorted minifigure accessories

· Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10216 Winter Village Bakery or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!

Analysis:

TLG again continues the ‘7 minifigures + light brick’ formula, and again increases the price per piece by another half cent to 8.5 cents per piece, but that is still a great bargain and well below the 10 cent per piece level that most people look to beat. It is not my favorite in the series, but I still highly recommend it. As mentioned before, it is currently labeled ‘retired’ on LEGO shop@home, but it seems very likely to make a return in 2013 simply because both the Toy Shop and the Bakery were both available for three seasons, why stop that trend now? While this one may not have seen the same demand as previous entries I would expect that it would be strong enough to warrant one last return. So, assuming it does return, buy these sets as soon as they come back in 2013. There is no telling how long they will last before they are sold out for the last time. Don’t wait around hoping for a February clearance on these sets. Finally, we turn to my personal favorite and the largest in the line-up, the Winter Village Cottage.

Cottage (10229)

Good news! The best and biggest Winter Village set is still available. It is the Cottage and it is amazing. It is 1,490 pieces of pure holiday joy. That is nearly double the piece count of all of the previous entries. There are 8 minifigures included this time, along with a light brick – I think TLG is pretty much wedded to including a light brick in each of these sets by now. That is fine with me, because I love light bricks. Perhaps we’ll get some sound bricks with holiday jingles in the future? One can hope. The set includes some great mini-builds including an igloo, grandpa’s comfy chair, a chainsaw, Christmas tree, and a child’s bed among others. There is also a great vintage snowplow/flat bed truck and workshop.

The best aspect of this set and what sets it above the other Winter Village sets is how polished and complete the cottage is both inside and out. It is still a three sided building, open in the back like the others, but it offers much more depth than the other sets. It feels more like a fully realized building like the modulars and less like a simple façade. The flooring is nicely patterned. The lofted child’s room is colorful and fits in nicely. The main room is finished well with a toasty fireplace and vaulted ceiling. Altogether it is a very comprehensive, well designed set that no winter scene should be without. The Cottage is a definite ‘must have’ for any Winter Village collector.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Build the perfect holiday home with the LEGO Creator Winter Village Cottage, which continues the Winter series and includes a Christmas tree, a fireplace with a light brick, an igloo, a sled and a snowplow. Seat Grandpa snugly by the fireplace with his newspaper as you help Dad put up the tree, then bake a feast in the kitchen with Mom. When it's time to stock up the storage shed with firewood, bring the kids for a ride with Dad on the sled and watch him cut the wood with his chainsaw deep in the forest. When the snow gets really deep, clear the road with the snowplow, take all of the kids skiing or build an igloo to play in. There's no cozier place to spend long, frosty nights!

• Includes eight minifigures: Mom, Dad, Grandma, Grandpa, three children and a snowplow driver with assorted accessories
• Features a cottage, a storage shed, an igloo, a streetlamp, a sled and a snowplow
• Accessories include a kitten, an owl, a fireplace with a LEGO light brick function, a chandelier, a Christmas tree, a wreath, gifts, an armchair, kitchen appliances and a bed
• Storage shed features tools and firewood elements
• Igloo features a fireplace and a removable roof
• Rare elements and colors included
• Detach the snowplow to store it in the back of the truck
• Make the fireplace glow with the LEGO light brick
• Decorate the cottage
• Fetch firewood with the sled
• Drive the snowplow
• Cottage measures 5.5"L x 9.8"W x 6.7"H
• Storage shed measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 4.3"H
• Igloo measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 2.7"H
• Snowplow measures 7"L (with plow attached) x 2.3"W x 2.7"H
• 1,490 pieces

Analysis:

The Cottage is the real standout of this series and definitely the one to stock up on. For 99.99 you get the best set in the line-up with the lowest price per piece at less than 7 cents per piece! So far we have gotten essentially three retail establishments, but this is the first residence. Any collector building a winter scene can do without a bakery or a post office, but they will definitely want, dare I say need, to have this set included. This set is a 10 all the way. I absolutely love it and will be looking to add them to my collection in 2013 and 2014. The only thing that could derail this great investment is if it becomes so popular that TLG brings it back year after year after year. This is a 2012 release, so there is probably not a great urgency to hoard these right away, but definitely don’t forget about them come 2014.

Concluding remarks:

Ok, so by now we have a very nice winter scene, but you know what would really complete it, something that would really bring it all together, perhaps even encircle it with a nicely defined perimeter? I know! A train! If only TLG would come out with a holiday train. Wait! They already have and for a mere $450 it can be yours! Long before the release of all these wonderful Winter Village sets, TLG released the 2006 Holiday Train (10173) set, available for a single holiday season. Although not officially part of the Winter Village subtheme, perhaps it will lend some insight as to the longer term appreciation potential of these Winter Village sets. Now I grant you, the Holiday Train is well, … a train, not a building, so the comparison may be somewhat ill-fitting. Also, it was only available for a single holiday season, not three. With that said, here is a summary of the set:

The Holiday Train has more than quadrupled in value, while the Toy Shop in its much shorter life has nearly tripled in value. On the other hand, the Toy Shop boasts a stronger CAGR at 29% than the Holiday Train’s 25%. I doubt that the Toy Shop will quite reach the levels seen with the Holiday Train due to the appeal of trains in general and the train’s severely limited window of availability, but the Toy Shop’s current trend line is still strong and it is up 50% in just the last 6 months. The Toy Shop may have more room to run, but I expect it will level off before hitting quadruple returns, perhaps peaking as early as the 2013 holiday season. The Bakery has shown very strong recent gains, climbing over 80% in the last 6 months, so it looks as though holding it for at least one more year may be wise. Those investors fortunate enough to have Toy Shops stashed away may want to consider selling them this upcoming holiday season 2013 and rolling those funds into the (presumably) returning and the retiring Post Office. Those with Bakeries may want to hold them one more year and roll those funds into Cottage purchases come 2014.

If it wasn’t already obvious, I absolutely love these sets and I love their investment potential. All of the sets in this line are wonderfully inspired and crafted with great detail. They are filled with great playability, but also make for wonderful displays that any LEGO or even non-LEGO fan will appreciate and admire. These sets are sure to inspire a great feeling of nostalgia for adults, reminding them of the simple joys that the holidays bring, while at the same time delighting the children of the home with the wonderful play features throughout. Definitely pick up the oldest available sets each year, perhaps even a year early to ensure that you don’t miss out. Hopefully the predictable annual release and annual retirement trend will continue. However, as any Fire Brigade, Death Star, or Minecraft owner will tell you, not much in the world of LEGO is predictable. Even though it is summer time I wish you all Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!

Update:

The new 2013 Winter Village entry has recently been announced, the Winter Village Market. This upcoming set is on par with the Cottage in size and price at 1,261 pieces (9 minifigures) and an MSRP of $99.99. This new set looks outstanding for one reason in particular, the carousel. The set features a working carousel than is operated by turning a crank. Not only does the carousel spin, but the horses teeter back and forth and feature unique printing as well. Besides the carousel there are a few stands that are not all that exciting except for the fact that they feature some rare dark blue arches. Surprisingly absent this time around is a light brick. However, the play features of the carousel more than makes up for the lack of a light brick.

I admit when I first saw the images of this set I was a little disappointed that it wasn’t another building and the various booths didn’t do much for me, but once I saw the developer’s video and saw how awesome the carousel was I was sold. I think this is going to be another must have set in the Winter Village subtheme due to the uniqueness of the carousel. It should provide a great focal point for enthusiast’s winter scenes.

On a disappointing note, I am now doubtful that the Post Office will return due to the fact that the LEGO.com description of the Market (below) only mentions the Cottage. Also, as previously mentioned, LEGO.com lists the set as ‘retired’ as opposed to ‘sold out’ which already cast some doubt on its return. It looks like TLG may continue to release one new seasonal set a year, but only keep two current at a time. If that is the case then investors may want to start adding the Cottage to their collections this season.

Market (10235)

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Collect and create a fun festive scene with the Winter Village Market!
Bring home the holiday spirit with the Winter Village Market, continuing the popular LEGO® Winter Village Series. Turn the handle and take a ride on the rocking horse as the carousel spins! Visit the carnival booth. Fill up on holiday and fair favorites including a pie, pretzel and croissant at the baker’s stand, chicken and sausage at the grill stand or sweet treats at the candy shop. Celebrate a holiday season full of traditions and building with the Winter Village Market! Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children.
• Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children
• Features functioning carousel and operator’s booth with moving bucket challenge, baker’s stand, grill stand, candy stand, 2 streetlamps, 3 trees, a bench and 3 tables
• Accessories include cups, teddy bear, a cat, scarf, purse and lots of food elements
• Carousel horses feature new ornamental headwear design
• Turn the handle to make the carousel rotate
• Take a ride on the carousel
• Watch the carousel horses really rock!
• Fill up on holiday treats at the bakery, grill and candy stands!
• Carousel and operator’s booth measure 7" (19cm) high, 10" (25cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
• Booths measure over 3" (9cm) high, 3" (8cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep
• Combine with 10229 Winter Village Cottage for an even bigger winter scene!
 

To find when a Lego set will potentially stop growing in value. You can use this system to determine under which category the set falls under. You can use the four variables explained in the other article to determine when a set might hit the magic number. To find what category a set falls under, the set must be graded on a scale of one to ten in each of the categories.

How old the set is: Use when the set was released as the starting point.

• 0-6 months
• 7-12 months
• 1-2 years
• 3-5 years
• 6-8 years
• 9-10 years
• 11-15 years
• 16-20 years
• 21-30 years
• 31+ years.

How desirable the set is: This category is very hard to determine. Use your own opinion on the set to determine this.

• Very popular
• Popular
• Great
• Good
• Decent
• Bad
• Worse
• Worst
• Really bad
• Undesirable

How many sets are available to be sold: See how many sets are available to be sold on eBay.

• 81+
• 71-80
• 61-70
• 51-60
• 41-50
• 31-40
• 21-30
• 11-20
• 6-10
• 0-5

How many sets were produced: See how long the set was available on the primary market

• 5+ years
• 4 years
• 3 years
• 2 years
• 1.5 years
• 1 year
• 6-11 months
• 4-6 months
• 2-3 months
• 1 month

After seeing what category the set falls under for each section, add up the numbers. When you get your final result, see where it is in this scale. The totals will vary from 4-40.

• 4-10: The set still has growth in the future. The set will stop growing in value in the far future.
• 11-15: The set has a good amount of growth left for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the distant future.
• 16-20: The set has a decent amount of growth left in the future. The set will stop growing in value soon in the future.
• 21-25: The set has some growth left, but not a lot for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the near future.
• 26-30: The set has a small amount of growth left for the future. The set has a very small chance at recahing the "Magic Number", but it is possible. Other than that, the set is close to reaching the point when the growth will stop.
• 31-35: The set has a very little amount of growth left for the future. Some sets have reached the "Magic Number" already, but some have not. Other then that, the set is extremely close to reaching the point when growth will stop.
• 36-40: The set is near or at the "Magic Number". Very little growth will happen beyond this point, but it is still possible.

I will try this method out on one sets. The first will be the 10179 Millennium Falcon.

• How old is the set: 4: 3-5 years
• How desirable is the set: 2: Popular
• How many sets are available to be sold: 8: 11-20
• How many sets were produced: 4: 2 years

After adding all the numbers up, the set has a score of 18. That is about halfway through the scale. This means the set has a decent amount of growth left in the future.

This method may help in determining when a Lego set will stop growing in value, but it does not always work. There are other factors that cannot be calculated in all of this. For example, a set may be so expensive that no one will pay above a certain amount to get the set, thus limiting the potential growth of the set. Eventhough a set may appear to stop growing in value it still can. Hopefully, this article has helped anyone trying to find when a set will stop growing in value.

Thanks for reading.
 

Those close to me know that if I give LEGO as a gift it comes straight from the heart, and if you’ve read my last blog post you’ll know that my brother-in-law is an AFOL too (Creationary and ‘Escape from Mirkwood Spiders’ were amongst his Christmas presents last year). What then to give? How to put my sympathy into bricks? Easy. Superman and Wonder woman minifigures.

Being constantly on the ball, and knowing exactly which shops in my town have which sets and what price, I knew that Sainsbury’s had ‘Superman Vs. Power Armour Lex’ on sale at £14.99. Within minutes of deciding what to get them I was standing in the aisle with the set in my hands. I was also looking at a price tag of £9.99! I built a small base for them to stand on (7-wide so they could ‘hold hands’, in so far as minifigures can do that, and have 1 stud at either side) and when presented with the gift they were delighted. We later made a hamper of gifts for them into which I added the rest of the set (nearly kept it myself though!) – not sure if he’s built it yet.

Now, back to Sainsbury’s; I contemplated buying another set, either as an investment or to keep but I didn’t and I regret it. I’m sure could have made money on it, although as yet, I’m no expert. I also thought about buying the blue suitcase as a gift for £9.99, but didn’t. My point is not about investing – there are blogs on here who make that point with much more experience than I have – my point is that supermarkets have sales.

In order to score good bargains at supermarkets you must check regularly. Recently ASDA had two small sets at half price for less than a week –now they’re full price again. I got the ‘Creator Small Cottage’ at Sainsbury’s for half price, but they didn’t last long. AFOL friends post great deals at Tesco in their local stores which aren’t available country-wide (this was the same case when my Sainsbury’s had a sale). A local department store had 25% off Series 7 minifigures and I predicted it would roll out to the other series, and they did.

My advice (teaching grandmas to suck eggs) is to be vigilant and buy whilst you have the chance!

P.S. one good turn deserves another; my sister and brother-and-law bought me ‘Creator Blue Roadster’ the other week when I went to give blood for the first time. Now, that’s an innovative way of investing.
 

So I decided to do an article for my own benefit, as well as anyone else who decides to draw conclusions from this. This blog article is about the pros and cons of using free shipping in auction style listings along with some direct analysis from Ebay.

Pros

• Free Shipping Logo: When you list something with free shipping, it puts a little logo on the side of your item that says “Free Shipping”. This definitely stands out more than not having one there and does attract the eyes a lot. While I think this is a plus, I don't think it is anything huge. I would venture to say most buyers will care more about the price and the actual item contents more than whether there is free shipping or not, at least with Lego sets. But I think there is definitely something to be said for having an extra little bit of color on the listing so that it doesn't slide in with all the monotony when someone is searching for a set.
• Buyer can compute the price easily: This seems really stupid to think about, but can definitely make a difference when someone is bidding, especially in those late auction situations where they are trying to snipe, or outbid the person who just sniped them. If you offer calculated shipping, then your shipping may be something like $15.27. If the auction price is currently $98.39, then the people looking at your auction have to do some math. Now, this is isn't terribly difficult math, but in this day and age with calculators, a lot of people can't compute that in their head, especially in the stress of an auction about to end. Free shipping is by far the easiest solution to this because the price is the exact price of the auction itself. It's like wanting to know the time and looking at a digital clock instead of one with hands.
• Attract Bidders that might not be attracted at the real shipping price: This can sometimes be a double edged sword, but if someone doesn't like how much your shipping cost is to them, they may not even consider your item. If they don't bid, that's less bids in general. Sure, they could buy it and then you are out the fortune to ship it to them. At the same time, they could invoke a bidding war with someone who lives next to you. That person easily outbids them and you walk across the street and profit big time. Even further, I think even if the final price is right, people don't trust auctions that show $50 for the shipping price, even if it is correct and calculated to their location.
• Think about what matters to you when you shop on Ebay: I generally do like auctions with free shipping a little bit more, especially if they are by sellers that live quite a ways away or especially an international item I can't get as cheap here.
• Won't be filtered in Ebay Searches: Ebay has search options so that buyers can only search for items with free shipping. I don't ever do this, but there are definitely some who do meaning that if you aren't offering free shipping, those people are filtering your items out. Since there isn't an option in Ebay to search for “not-free shipping”, this only hurts those who don't offer it.
• Ebay Ratings: If you sell on Ebay, you know Ebay has a 5 star rating system for several things including “Item Description”, “Shipping Time”, “Shipping Price”, “Communication”. Obviously, just like feedback, these affect people's decisions to buy your items. But Ebay also keeps track of these. If you go below a certain level in any category, Ebay will lower your listings when people search by “Best Match”. Currently, if you list your item with free shipping, Ebay automatically gives you 5 stars in the shipping price category. You may not think this is a big deal, but let's say someone buys your item and calculated shipping is $50. They go to rate you and feel that was too much. 1 star rating is given and you suffer for it.

Cons

• It's hard to computer your bottom line until you sell it: If you use free shipping in an auction, until someone wins the auction you have no idea where you are shipping it. This can be especially bad with big sets. If you live on the east coast and the top bidder is on the west coast, you may be paying out of your mind shipping prices for the item. This could cut big time into your profits.
• Ebay gives items higher priority if they have free shipping: Ebay really pushes free shipping and items with it get higher priority in “Best Match” searches, which is the default sorting technique when you search for items. Your item will most likely never be at the top if you don't have free shipping.
• Less Bids: You will definitely have less people see your listing because there will be some immediately put off by your shipping price, especially if it is calculated and they live far from you. Fixed price can sometimes not be too bad, but your item can still be filtered out if people search for items without free shipping. This means less bids and less possible bidding wars.

So no discussion is fully complete without a little bit of real statistics and analysis. I decided to find a few sets I could search for on Ebay and average out prices to see if you really gained much price wise from free shipping. Unfortunately there isn't a built in tool to average listings so I had to do this by hand. Here were my criteria for the listings:

• Set must be new – I want a control as we wont have to worry as much about how the set was listed with a New auction. If it's new, it's sealed and all that really matters is box condition and whether its open.
• Set must not have any obvious problems with box condition – I tried to filter these out as outliers.
• Auctions only.
• Set must not come with anything extra or be missing anything.
• Set must have at least 50 listings that sold in the past 3 months.
• Set must have at least 5 free shipping auctions.
• Must be retired
• Must be different sizes than other chosen sets

This proved to be really hard. I thought of several really good sets to do this with, but found there were some where no one really offered free shipping. There were also several that didn't have enough listings in general. I finally found three sets that matched my criteria. Since I am taking a lot of data, this is a small sample size, but it should at least point us in the right direction.

My sets were:

• 10212 Imperial Shuttle
• 4195 Queen Anne's Revenge
• 9465 The Zombies

This gives us three different sized sets to compare with.

Here is what I found:

10212 Imperial Shuttle

Number of listings: 46 w/o and 10 with

Average auction price w/o free shipping = $342.38
Shipping Average = $19.33
Total Cost = $361.70

Average auction price with free shipping = $369.25

Percent difference with free shipping = 2.1%

4195 Queen Anne's Revenge

Number of listings: 34 w/o and 22 with

Average auction price w/o free shipping = $194.50
Shipping Average = $16.22
Total Cost = $210.72

Average auction price with free shipping = $198.36

Percent difference with free shipping = -6%

9465 The Zombies

Number of listings: 36 w/o and 7 with

Average auction price w/o free shipping = $124.60
Shipping Average = $11.85
Total Cost = $210.72

Average auction price with free shipping = $132.77

Percent difference with free shipping = 6.6%

So what does all this information tell us? Well, to me, I see a lot of variance between the data. First off, there were listings with free shipping at the bottom and at the top of all three items. Second, of these 3 and 10 others I researched, none of the top 3 sold prices were free shipping listings.

To me this makes it seem like it just doesn't make a big difference in terms of Lego sales. People who buy sets are more interested in the set itself and the price than whether its free shipping or not. In general, I think it means your actual listing and well you put it together, when you ended it, etc. make a lot more difference in the final price you get for the item. This means its really nothing to stress out about.

Looking at all this data, these would be my recommendations of when to do it and when to not:

When to use free shipping

• If it is an extremely light item, under a pound or so, I would do it. It does add something to the listing and it isn't going to cost you a whole lot extra even if the person lives on the other side of the country. This will attract more buyers and the more bidders and views your auction gets, the more this will make up for any items you sell that go across a long shipping distance.
• If you live in the middle of the states, I would lean more towards using it. Because I live in the far East, I fear those people in California buying my items listed with free shipping. If you live in the central parts, on average, everyone on Ebay from the US is closer to you. You can apply that logic to every other country as well.
• If you check before listing an auction and no one else has free shipping. If no one else has free shipping, your auction will definitely benefit because it will be different from all the others.

When not to use free shipping

• Don't use it on bigger items. It's not worth taking the chance of a $50 shipping fee for someone. In general on bigger and more expensive Lego sets, I think you get into the people that are more serious because they are spending more money. In this case, these people will add things together and will not really are as much about free shipping over the item itself.
• If it makes you anxious. If you don't want to worry about what that shipping charge could be, just don't deal with it. Set it to “calculate”.
• If you want to be able to calculate profits better ahead of time. If you don't have to average in shipping, you will have a better idea of your bottom line.

I hope that was good information for anyone reading. What conclusions do you all draw from this?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

From Jules Gabriel Verne’s incredible submersible named the Nautilus in an era where underwater travel was but an illusion, to Herbert George Wells’ contraption capable of traversing time and space itself coining the very phrase of “time machine”, to Michael Moorcock’s tales of a nomad roaming through the streams of time, all these aspired to the creation of a genre we like to call, steampunk. Although it took sometime in the late 1980s before the actual phrase came about, it has been in various literary works since the 19th century. A typical setting ranges from Victorian landscapes revolving around some form of alternate timeline in which the Industrial Revolution has already begun except electricity is not widespread.

Created by two of the people from Team Jigsaw behind the Thinking with Portals CUUSOO project, Nick V (Brick Thing) and Evan (Ehl-jay), and then submitted on February 6, 2013, The Adventures of Steamrod is the perfect culmination of steampunk in the form of our favorite medium, Lego.
 

The story revolves around Sir Jonathan Bolt, a distant relative to famous longtime adventurer Johnny Thunder, and his crusade amongst fellow comrades to recover long lost artifacts before the tyrannical Lord Sinistree and his army of Slybots gets to them first. Interestingly enough, Steamrod is actually the name of the heroes’ locomotive. The entire train with a coal car and laboratory carriage is constructed from over fifteen hundred pieces, sits at 25 inches long and 3 inches wide, and able to function on as well as off track.

On the side of the villians, the main man himself swoops in with his custom Sky-slizer.

While his conniving cohorts use a Slycycle and Gyroscopter.

I must say, I am beyond impressed with the imaginatively creative scope in character design and vehicular builds. Pre-rendered three dimensional representations or not, this is quite simply awe inspiring and a more than worthy concept to expand Lego’s line. This is a theme the company should have done years ago and I still find it somewhat baffling they have not tried to tackle this before. Granted, the steampunk fan base may be considered by some a small niche but so was Star Wars a long time ago. Even if kids might not understand everything about the genre, that does not mean they won’t enjoy themselves all the same.

This is only one of the many projects I gladly support and I hope you will too, friends.
Thank you.

Here is the Flickr gallery for more fantastic imagery.
 

The Watch List

The watch list is a pretty nice feature that Ebay has and if you have ever been on Ebay you have probably used it. When you look at a listing on Ebay, you can click to put it on your watch list which means that inside of “My Ebay” you can quickly go back and look at the item. Along with this you get alerts by email and by phone (assuming you have the app) that your watched item is about to expire. This is an easy way to keep track of things that you are contemplating like auctions that are far from over or Buy It Now items that you can't decide if you want to buy or not. There are a couple of little tricks that you can use to your benefit:

• The biggest point about your watch list that a lot of people don't pay attention to is keeping your watch list clean. Ebay does not automatically remove listings after they end for several reasons, one of which we will explain below. Basically there are two ways to keep it clean : don't watch an item unless you are actually interested in it and make sure you clear out items that end. You don't know how much this helps. For one, you don't want 100 items in your watch list that have already expired and you can't buy – this just waters it down. The bigger point though is that you can only see a certain amount per page in your “My Ebay” section. If you have items that shouldn't be in your watch list there, you are going to have to spend more time scrolling pages looking through what you want. Also, you will get alerts for these items and if you don't really want them or aren't serious, this is just something else to look at that you don't need to.
• Another nice thing that a lot of people don't notice: If an item on your watch list that has ended is re-listed, you are notified. This is one reason that you should keep items on your watch list that don't sell – you may see them re-listed at a better price! I will sometimes watch these because I can tell no one will ever press that Buy It Now button. The item will end and I will get a notification of re-listing at way less!
• Another thing I do commonly with slightly overpriced items is to check the seller's feedback for sold items. If they haven't sold a lot of Lego's, I assume they are just a more casual fan. So I will message them if an auction ends with no bids and tell them I was interested but wasn't quite sure about the price. I will tell them I would buy it for a little less if they are interested. I have got a couple of good deals this way because they can make a quick sale. Just make sure you have them re-list it. If Ebay catches you making “under the table deals” it's not good.

Auctions with more than one item

This can seem somewhat obvious because most people think bulk=less expensive. This is not always true with Legos, especially if the sets are rare and go together (like Queen Anne's Revenge and The Black Pearl). Most people list these for prices that are above market value of both items because they go together, especially using Buy It Now.

However, in Auction listings, because Ebay encourages lower starting bids, you will see the sets start out very low. Depending on how they are listed and the auction's end time, you may be able to score a really good deal on the items together. An example: I got a Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit on auction for $120.

Listings with Buy It Now and Auction as a choice

Ebay does something somewhat different with there Buy It Now and Auction listings. Basically the rules are: if someone bids, Buy It Now becomes unavailable immediately. On the outside, this doesn't seem like anything that really matters to the Buyer: If you think it will go less than the Buy It Now price, bid. If not, press the Buy It Now button.

However, there is a trick here. Let's say you find an auction that is a little bit poorly listed. For example, I found an auction a while back for a 7181 UCS X-Wing (the original). The picture was alright, but the listing itself had pretty much no explanation and the item number was not in the listing. The seller had the auction price starting at $60 with a BIN at $150 and free shipping (BP used price for the set is $175).

In this case, I figured $150 is a really good price and I was very tempted to hit BIN. On the other hand, the way this auction was listed, I figured it very well may not even go that high. So I bid. Why? Well let' say I am right and no one really bids on the Auction? I may win it for way less than $150! There is definitely a risk I wont and that goes into the decision, but this is a trick you can use in a lot of situations. If you think the auction may go less than the BIN and you are willing to risk it, bid quick and no one else can steal the item from you.

Search for items with Spelling Mistakes

This is a really simple one – a lot of people have trouble typing or cannot spell some words correctly. If people are lazy with their listings, they are leaving the door open for a smart buyer. Especially if the listing doesn't have the item number in the title. So search for easy spelling mistakes in them. For example “Millenium Falcon”. It's easy to miss that second “n”. An auction found this way could really benefit you. I do this all the time when I am searching for CDs and things of that nature. Because of the item numbers with Legos, it doesn't happen too much, but if you set up a saved search it could really pay off.

These are just some extra tips you can use to grab those great deals out there. Good Luck!

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

To summarize our findings, Technic investing has proven to be lucrative, with an average theme ROI of 107%. In this article, I will try to forecast potential returns for the unretired Technic sets that are either currently on the market or unreleased based on the sales data we've compiled when reviewing performance of the older sets. To recap, here are the trends found in Part 1:

By Category

• Cranes (Construction Subtheme) - Strong ROI, 195%
• Snow sets - Strong ROI, 161%
• Farm sets - Strong ROI, 149%
• Motorcycle - Good ROI, 127%
• Non-Crane Construction - 107%
• Service Trucks - Average ROI, 102%
• Quads - weak ROI, 69%
• Car - small sample size, 50%
• Sport Truck - weak ROI, 49%
• Air - small sample size, 30%

By Price Point

• $20 MSRP - bad
• $40 MSRP - bad
• >$100 MSRP - good

Power Functions = average return

Given this information, I followed the lead of FCBarcelona and set up a linear regression to estimate the ROI for each of the future sets. The dependent variable I used was, of course, ROI, while the independent variables I input were Set Type Avg. ROI, Price Point and Power Function. To allow a numerical regression for the Power Functions, I assigned each set with a Power Function a "1" and each without a "0". The regression provided our predictive expression model as follows:

ROI = .97*(Set Type ROI) + .0019(Price Point) - .02(PF) - .07

Interestingly, the presence of Power Function has a slightly negative effect on ROI per our model.

Please understand that the predictions from this model are very rough, so no purchasing decisions should be based upon this model's predictions. With that caveat out of the way, on to the new sets:

8065 Mini Container Truck

MSRP: $12
Estimated ROI: 94%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28
Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%

In looking at the estimated return, this service truck has an MSRP less than $20, so I would guess this would have a little higher ROI since the two similarly priced sets have returned more than 80%. That said, this ROI probably suffers from being a service truck.

9390 Mini Tow Truck

MSRP: $12
Estimated ROI: 94%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28 95%
Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%

Look like anything before? This set has the exact same input variables as 8065 Mini Container Truck, so the model outputs the same performance.

9391 Tracked Crane

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 186%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $37.20 95%
Confidence Limits: 25% to 347%

The crane aspect of this set really beefs up the estimated return on this set. It's amazing how much Technic enthusiasts love cranes. The fact this crane also has tracks will likely increase its appeal and retirement returns. This looks like a good small set to invest in if you're looking to diversify the set sizes in your portfolio. This one may be good to flip as well if you can get it at a solid discount.

42011 Race Car

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 45%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $29 95%
Confidence Limits: -110% to 201%

The two cars from years past that are included in our regression have not provided good returns, so that's really pulling the estimated return for 42011 down as well. The defining characteristic for this model isn't in our regression analysis: the "pull back" action of the car. I don't see the pull back option becoming a "must have" for Technic lovers, so I don't think it will be relevant to its secondary market performance.

42010 Off Road Racer

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 44%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $28.80 95%
Confidence Limits: -112% to 200%

This buggy has the same "pull back" action as 42011 Race Car, so 42010 will likely perform in step with 42011. This set's return got murdered by the fact that quads haven't historically performed well.

42004 Mini Backhoe Loader

MSRP: $25
Estimated ROI: 102%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $50.50 95%
Confidence Limits: -52% - 255%

Another sharp looking construction vehicle ready to capitalize on its construction roots. For a small set, I like this model because it has two buckets, one on each end, that both operate. It's also just out of the dreaded $20 price point which can only help.

9392 Quad Bike

MSRP: $25
Estimated ROI: 69%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $42.25 95%
Confidence Limits: -90% to 219%

Another small set, this one unsurprisingly falls below the 107% average Technic return given its a quad.

9393 Tractor

MSRP: $40 Estimated ROI: 145%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
Confidence Limits: -10% to 300%

This new model is the only farm subtheme representative. As such, it's sports a nice, above average ROI.

42007 Moto Cross Bike

MSRP: $40
Estimated ROI: 124%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
Confidence Limits: -30% to 278%

Technic buyers love their motorcycles, as all of them have posted some very consistent retirement gains. This one appears to be no different with a 124% return estimated by our model.

9394 Jet Plane

MSRP: $50
Estimated ROI: 36%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $78.88
Confidence Limits: -127% to 190%

This model has the lowest ROI of any new model. Planes, in the past, haven't sold well after retirement, although there aren't many data points to corroborate this. The model may not have much correlation to the regression prediction, so tread carefully with putting much stock in this estimate.

9395 Pick Up Tow Truck

MSRP: $70
Estimated ROI: 105%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $143.50 95%
Confidence Limits: -49% to 260%

This service truck comes in right around the Technic average and the Service Truck average.

42006 Excavator

MSRP: $80
Estimated ROI: 112%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $169.60 95%
Confidence Limits: -43% to 267%

Recently, this set has been heavily discounted by Amazon UK, so I'll be interested to see how it performs. Anywhere near it's estimated ROI will provide a great return for those who purchased at the Amazon UK discount of $55 (shipped to the US). This equates to nealry a $115 gain and a 209% return!

9396 Helicopter

MSRP: $120
Estimated ROI: 45%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $174 95%
Confidence Limits: -122% to 212%

Another that's been recently discounted by Amazon UK, the recent discounted purchase price was $71. If 9396 sells for it's estimated value, it will return a tidy profit of $103 and a 145% ROI.

42000 Grand Prix Racer

MSRP: $130
Estimated ROI: 66%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $215.80 95%
Confidence Limits: -100% to 233%

This looks like one awesome set, and because this model emulates a Formula 1 race car, it may have better prospects for retirement gains than the model estimates. This model is also a lot bigger than it looks on the box, clocking it at over two feet long. An impressive set that set for impressive gains.

9397 Logging Truck

MSRP: $140
Estimated ROI: 116%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $302.40
Confidence Limits: -44% to 277%
An interesting note on 9397 Logging Truck: some of the popularity of the set to date has been fueled by the B-build of the set. This is our first new set with Power Functions and the model predicts a great return.

41999 Co-Creation 4x4 Crawler Exclusive

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 77%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $340
Confidence Limits: -95% to 249%

Our regression estimate doesn't take into consideration that 41999 is a Limited Edition, so that will likely fuel the Secondary Market Value to even higher returns than 77%.

8110 Unimog U400

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 127%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $454
Confidence Limits: -41% to 296%

Unsurprisingly, Unimog has a phenomenal investment return profile. Not included in the model is the increased demand that will come from the Mercedes-Benz license. Either way, this set looks like a blowout retirement winner.

9398 4x4 Crawler

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 76%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $352
Confidence Limits: -96% to 248%

The regression loves these high MSRP sets. Unfortunately, since this is a Sport Truck, it gets dinged compared to Service Trucks and Cranes. However, this was recently discounted by Amazon UK to $130, so if it eventually sells for $352, it will provide a $222 return and a 170% ROI. The secondary returns may be a bit depressed due to the Limited Edition 4x4 Crawler Exclusive, a muscle car that was built on this set's platform.

42009 Mobile Crane MK II

MSRP: $200 (estimated)
Estimated ROI: 217%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $634
Confidence Limits: 46% to 389%

As the listing says, the MSRP has not yet been released for this set, yet I wanted to give readers the opportunity to see what a true Technic winner this could be. First, note this is only one of two sets whose bottom confidence limit is positive. This tells you that the model is over 95% confident this model will not lose money. If that isn't reassuring, take a look at the potential return: $434 over MSRP. If you can manage to get two of these sets on a TRU BOGO 50%, you're purchase price will be $300 (not including taxes or shipping for simplicity), and your estimated profit would be $968, a 323% ROI, and a lot of cash in your pocket!

After all that, there are a number of sets that, as of this article's publishing, have no MSRP yet. Here are the newest Technic models that we didn't estimate because of their MSRPs haven't been released:

42001 Mini Off Roader
42003 Action Race Car
42005 Monster Truck
42008 Service Truck

To summarize, since 2005 the average Technic set has provided a 107% ROI, an impressive number by any calculation. While it may take the average Technic set a little longer to mature (think 2-3 years), they will bring some really nice ROI to your portfolio. Among the new sets, our regression model loves 42009 Mobile Crane MKII and 8110 Unimog, and frankly it's easy to say why: they look awesome! As always, invest accordingly...

A couple of notes on the regression model: First, this is not an accurate model because it included only three independent variables, so it shouldn't be used exclusively to make purchasing decision. The 95% confidence limits should corroborate this. Second, the model is heavily reliant on the average ROI by set type, so that's why you see the model providing returns at or near these values. Finally, a number of our average ROI by set type values are based upon two to four data points, not nearly a strong enough quantity to be statistically significant. To parallel this caveat, the data points that comprised the average ROI by set were disparate, so there is some built-in bias inherent in this average ROI by set type value.

Let's dive into the wonderful world of Technic returns. To compartmentalize the analysis, I have split the Technic sets by release year, and have broken down each into the following characteristics:

Release Year
Set Number
Set Name
Retirement Status
Power Functions
MSRP
ROI
CAGR
Set Type
Set Subtype.

I wanted to target Technic sets with data relevant to the current secondary market, so I chose to analyze sets released back to 2005, starting with the most recent and working back. All of the data is available in Excel at the end of the article.

2011 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 37%

Since 2011 includes our most recent retirees, the returns from this year are still growing. Accordingly, the average 2011 returns are the lowest among the years we've assessed, checking in at a low 37% ROI. In 2011, TLC maintained the expanded, ten set Technic line, and gave us the only set with a negative return (8069) among all of the Technic sets released since 2005. Three items to note among this year's releases:

• I was surprised the Lift Truck was such a dud - it's a neat set at a mid-level price point. Perhaps the expanded product line introduced in 2009 has oversaturated the Technic retail market, causing 8071 (and 8069) to wither on the vine.
• 8081 Extreme Cruiser was a limited edition release, yet it sports a seemingly small 52% ROI. However, given it's 23% CAGR, we can expect this one to keep climbing.
• Two of the sets from this year have yet to be retired: 8065 Mini Container Truck and 8110 Unimog U400.

The retired sets of note from this year are the two Power Function sets, 8070 Super Car and 8019 Flatbed Truck, and one of the small sets, 8067 Mini Mobile Crane. All three of these have had great secondary market sales and sport CAGRs over 20%. Continued success will continue to propel these, along with 8018, to higher gains. 2011 is also the only year to feature three Power Function sets.

2010 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 74%

2010's ten set lineup has provided decent EOL performances across the board. With the exception of 8041 Race Truck and 8046 Helicopter, all the year's releases sport ROIs greater than 35%. Here are my notes on this year's releases:

• There were two excavators released this year, and while both have provided returns in the black, the smaller 8047 Compact Excavator, with a 120% ROI, has been much stronger than 8043 Motorized Excavator. Purchasing eight Compact Excavators for the same price as one Motorized Excavator would have returned $440 instead of a "measly" $282.
• My surprise dud from 2010 is 8041 Race Truck. It looks great and it's got a neat flip-top cab to expose the working internals. Unfortunately this set's Brickpicker Value is essentially MSRP, so demand for this has been dreadful.
• 8051 Motor Bike is also a surprise winner here, and highlights a trend of strong performance from this set type. An ROI/CAGR of 118%/29.56% is incredible performance for any set, let alone one with a middling $40 price point.

The Power Function sets this year were nice performers. 8043 Motorized Excavator will likely continue to climb in value, and the slick 2010 Container Truck has almost doubled in value from MSRP. Yet, neither were tops on ROI or CAGR; this honor belonged to 8047 Compact Excavator and 8053 Mobile Crane, an impressive feat for two construction sets that were both remakes.

2009 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 116%

2009's lineup was a tale of two returns: 7 of the 10 sets had returns over 90%, while the other three sets didn't provide an ROI over 30%. There were also some significant changes to the Technic lineup in 2009: the theme expanded by 40%, from 7 to 10 sets where it has remained since, and after a one-year hiatus, a $150 MSRP set returned to the lineup with 8258 Crane Truck. Finally, a very unique model was introduced: 8263 Snow Groomer, a machine found on ski slopes that maintains snow depth and quality for ski resorts. Other notable aspects of this year's release include:

• Two tractors were included among the year's offerings, similar to 2010's excavators. Similar to 2010's excavators, these tractors have gone in opposite directions. Also similar to the excavators, the smaller model performed well while the larger model struggled: 8063 Tractor with Trailer has barely broken a 20% ROI, while 8260 Tractor sports a 180% ROI.
• Two quads were also released together this year: 8256 Go-Kart and 8262 Quad Bike. While the Quad Bike has languished at a 28% ROI and a subpar 6% CAGR, the Go-Kart became the star performer of 2009's lineup with a 213% ROI and 33.05% CAGR.
• The small sets were smash hits: 8259 Mini Bulldozer (150% ROI/25.74% CAGR), 8256 Go-Kart (213%/33.05%) and 8260 Tractor (180%/29.36%) all performed really well. That said, 8261 Rally Truck, at $20 MSRP, fell short of small set expectations with 30% ROI / 6.78% CAGR.

The Power Functions sets once again performed well. 8258 Crane Truck and 8264 Hauler returned ROIs/CAGRs of 107%/20%, 97%/17.41% respectively. Given the size of the sets ($150 and $70 respectively), these were both nice buys.

2008 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 114%

In 2008, TLC expanded the Power Functions sets to two, the same number TLC has released every subsequent year. Otherwise, this year's releases provided consistent returns with a range from 55% to 163%. A couple of interesting nuggets from 2008:

• 8290 Mini Fork Lift and 8295 Telescopic Handler, while similar in function, highlighted two very different mechanical functions. Interestingly, both did well with 163%/21% and 68%/11% ROI/CAGR respectively.
• Another motorcycle, another nice return: 8291 Dirt Bike continued a positive trend for motorcyles with 128% ROI and 18% CAGR.

The Power Functions sets followed previous year return patterns: 8297 Cherry Picker and 8297 Off Roader were TLCs selections for 2008, and they sported ROI/CAGR of 133%/18% and 122%/17% respectively

2007 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 147%

The overriding trend for 2007 Technic sets was very positive, with only one set providing an ROI less than 60% and two thirds of the year's releases returning over 140%. The Farm and Snow sets, small subthemes within the Technic line, were both represented this year, and gave the lineup some uniqueness. A few other items of note from 2007:

• The only other snow-related set, 8272 Snowmobile, was a winner with 143% ROI/16% CAGR. One of the four retired farm sets, 8274 Combine Harvester, also scored well after retirement with 204%/20%.
• Three of the six sets released in 2007 were construction sets. Two of them were phenomenal successes: 8270 Rough Terrain Crane and the aforementioned Motorized Bulldozer sport ROIs of 150% and 303% respectively.
• The only true dud from 2007 was 8271 Wheel Loader that was priced at the dreaded $20 MSRP. It's currently valued at $24 with a paltry 20% return.

2007 brought a powerful new extension of the Technic theme to Technic enthusiasts: Power Functions. The first Power Functions set, 8275 Motorized Bulldozer, eventually became one of the biggest hits of the entire Technic theme and the best performing Power Functions model ever. The first Power Functions set also propelled 2007 to the second highest average ROI of the last eight years.

2006 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 165%

2006 returned the highest average ROI among the Technic year releases since 2005. While the average 2006 set provides a whopping 165%, the year's releases are really bipolar: the high flyers are phenomenal, while the lesser performers are dogs. The highest return among all Technic sets (since 2005) is also from 2006: 8288 Crawler Crane has an astronomical 426% ROI! The Tow Truck was also a great investment with an ROI of 324% on an initial purchase price of $120. Two other tidbits I gleaned from the 2006 sets:

• The only set whose title includes the main build and an alternate build comes from 2006: 8284 Dune Buggy/Tractor. Unfortunately, the schizophrenic nature of the title may have hurt its investment options as it only provided a 52%/6% ROI/CAGR.
• Within this year's releases, there are three service trucks and two quads. Only the Mini Tractor (Farm) and Crawler Crane (Construction) didn't fall into either category.

2006 was a banner year for Technic, and I don't think there will ever be another that will match its returns.

2005 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 129%

While 2005 had some nice returns, it's average ROI isn't as robust as either of the following two years. The flagship from his year didn't disappoint: 8421 Mobile Crane had a phenomenal 255% ROI, and still maintains a 17% CAGR 8 years later. The other six sets in the theme were also solid performers: five of the remaining six had an ROI greater than 100%, while the lowest still appreciated 50% over MSRP. The nuggets from this year's releases:

• Two thirds of the year's releases are construction sets, an unprecedented majority form 2005. That actually helped propel the theme's average higher than normal.
• The only loser this year is 8415 Dump Truck, although it sports a 50% ROI. For the worst performance of the year, it's still has given a decent return.

After all that...

We've mined a lot of data in the paragraphs and tables above, so let's pick out the items that will help you with your future investments. To start, the average non-weighted ROI for a Technic set since 2005 is 107%, an impressive return by any standards. Because the models have all been categorized by set type, let's see if there are any with better than average ROI/CAGR:

As the chart shows, the Snow sets have the highest returns at 161% over MSRP. I would guess this is due to their novelty in the Technic line with only two released. I was surprised by how well the Construction sets have performed. The most released set type still maintains a strong 137% average ROI. Of the Construction sets, five have an ROI less than 60%, while twelve have a return over 100%. Drilling down even further, the average return on the Construction Crane subtype (with a total of six sets) is a whopping 195%! Farm equipment also appears to be a great investment with an average return of 149%, good for the second highest earning set type.

On the flip side, the Service Trucks appear to be hit or miss, with their average ROI of 102% settling in around the theme's average. The Quads look to be terrible investments providing an average return of 69%. Interestingly, the Quad ROI is pulled up by one strong winner, 8256 Go-Kart. Removing this from the average would drop the Quad score to an even more dreadful 40%. Pulling up the rear are Air, Car, and Sport Truck sets. I was shocked to see the Sport Trucks among the bottom perfomers as the sets tend to be big, brawny and impressive. That said, a 49% average ROI is terrible, and much lower than the 107% Technic average.

Beyond set type, the Power Functions is a subcategory to the Technic line that is worth analyzing. Interestingly, a PF set provides an average return of 112%, with a range of 40%-303%. I was very surprised to see little difference between the performance of PF sets and the Technic average (107%), so PF should not be used as a must have investment criteria. That said, these are Technic's most expensive sets with an average MSRP of $125, and none have provided less than a 40% return, so PF sets will provide some investment cash when sold after EOL.

Finally, analyzing the models by price point also provides some insight. There are two price points that have provided mostly underwhelming results: $20 and $40 MSRP. The $20 MSRP is easily the worst performing price point with an average return of 41%. Eliminating 2005's well performing 8419 Excavator drops the $20 price point's return even further to a paltry 30%. For whatever reason, people don't buy $20 Technic sets after they retire. While the $40 MSRP has only four data points, it only provides an average ROI of 55%. The ROI of $40 sets is also supported by one well performing set, 8051 Motor Bike. Without its performance, the other three sets provided a measly 34% gain.

There are also price points with proven winners. All sets with an MSRP of $15 and under have all performed phenomenally with an average ROI of 156%. While these are smaller sets that won't provide large per set returns, they can still provide great diversity to a portfolio stocked with only large sets. The worst performer of this group is 8045 Mini Telehandler at 80%, while the best is 8281 Mini Tractor with a studly 190% ROI. Also, all sets over $100 have provided an average ROI of 147%.

As you can see, Technic sets perform well after retirement. Only one set out of seventy eight released since 2005 has failed to return a profit, while the average return is just over 100%. Technic should become a part of any serious Lego investor's portfolio, and with careful selection, these Technic sets should produce returns over 150%.

As always, invest accordingly...

Part 2 of this Evaluation Corner series will review all 24 unretired Technic sets, including the unreleased ones, and provide an estimated return for each based upon the past returns we've just analyzed.

Inside this theme, there have been some big winners amongst the normal gaining sets like the 7946 King's Castle (CAGR of over 30%) and 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison (CAGR of 57.60%!!!) which means there are some winners to be found int his theme. So is the next line of Castle sets released this year a set of winners? Or should we just assume the castles are guarded by rude French people who throw dead animals?

First up is the 70400 Forest Ambush :

From the Lego website:

Repel the Dragon soldier Forest Ambush!
Help the brave knights to repel the Forest Ambush! Take the chest of gold and treasure safely back to the castle on the armored cart. When the path through the forest is suddenly blocked by a fallen tree, fend off the Dragon soldier ambush! Draw your weapons, fend off the flick-missile attack and return the gold safely to the castle! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers.

• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers
• Features armored cart and a forest base
• Armored cart features turning wheels, flags and treasure chest with gold and treasure
• Forest base features flick missile and falling tree function
• Weapons include spear, crossbow, axe, sword and a spiked mace
• Accessories include 2 shields and a dog
• Chop down the tree and stage an ambush
• Fire the flick missile
• Protect the treasure
• Armored cart measures over 2" (6cm) high, 2" (6cm) long, and 1" (4cm) wide
• Forest base measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (7cm) wide, and 1" (5cm) deep

My Analysis: This set doesn't have a whole lot of pieces but does have 4 minifigures for a very low price at 11.99. It's $.13 per piece, which is not bad for a set with a lot of minfigures . The Dragon soldiers look really cool and should add some easy value to the set. The flick missiles are always an added plus as well. What may really make the set is the Lego dog added in. I think this is just a great value set for an investor if you get it at a little bit of a discount. Because of all the minifigures and the dog you will be able to easily get your money back out of the set by selling the minifigures. This is also a great set for army building to compliment the other castle sets. On its own, I am not sure it would be a big time winner, but as I will allude to later, because of these line I think it will do really well.

Next we have the 70401 Gold Getaway

From the Lego site:

Stop the Dragon soldier from escaping with the King’s Gold!
Stop the Dragon soldier from stealing the King’s fortune in a Gold Getaway! Fire the large crossbow’s flick missiles from behind the outpost and stop the Dragon soldier on his horse-drawn prison carriage from escaping with the King’s gold! Activate the cell door bust-out function and release the King's Knight. Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier
• Features prison carriage, outpost and a large crossbow
• Prison carriage features cell door bust-out function, treasure chest and a poseable horse with armor
• Large crossbow features wheels and a flick missile
• Weapons include sword, axe and a long axe
• Accessories include shield and a whip
• Collect the never-before featured horse-head armor element
• Pose the horse
• Fire the flick missile and stop the Dragon soldier escaping with the gold
• Release the King’s Knight from the prison cell
• Prison carriage with horse measures over 3" (8cm) high, 7" (19cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
• Outpost measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (6cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep

My Analysis: This set is a lot like the first, just with some extra pieces. At $19.99, it's right at $.10 cents per piece which is again really good for the amount of minifigures you are getting with the set. However, what really sets this one apart is the awesome horse and the matching night. I love the contrasting black and red they colored the horse, the corresponding knight, and the carrier. This really makes this set. I think right off the bat you could buy this set and piece out the minfigures and you are going to make money. I think this is going to be a big time sleeper set in this theme and could be a big time investor value later on. In other licensed themes, a set like this would be close to $30. If you get any discounts at all on this set I would absolutely jump on them.

Next up is 74002 The Gateway Raid:

From the Lego website:

Fend off the Dragon forces as they stage a Gatehouse Raid!
Ready, aim and fire your weapons! The Dragon forces are staging a Gatehouse Raid with their large catapult. Return fire from the gatehouse tower with the King’s Knights’ catapult attack! Stop the Dragon Knight on his fully armored horse from breaking through the gate! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier
• Features a gatehouse, large catapult and the Dragon Knight’s armored horse
• Gatehouse features a tower, small catapult and an opening gate
• Large catapult features wheels, dual launcher and a storage box
• Weapons include spear, crossbow and 2 swords
• Accessories include flags, flame elements, a shield and a coat of arms
• Launch a catapult attack!
• Stop the Dragon Knight on armored horseback
• Combine with 70404 King’s Castle for an even bigger model
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 7" (18cm) wide, and 3" (8cm) deep
• Large catapult measures over 2" (6cm) high, 3" (8cm) long, and 1" (5cm) wide

My Analysis: Awesome set; another Horse and Knight in that daunting black and red along with some extra dragon knights. I really love the way all of these sets compliment each other – this is going to really be big for the army/town building buyers. All of these sets fit together so well. I really like this set but don't see near as much value as the last set basically having the same number of minfigures and the same types. The little castle piece looks pretty good but at $.12 a piece I don't think this will be one of the better investments out there. If it gets discounted to a better price, could be a sleeper. The catapult is a good add on for playability and I think it would be a fun build looking at it.

Next is the 74003 Dragon Mountain:

From the Lego website:

Battle for the princess at Dragon Mountain!
Travel to Dragon Mountain to battle its fire-breathing guardian! Load up the large catapult and fire it at the dragon’s tower! Defeat the dragon and the Dragon Wizard! Search for the King’s stolen gold hidden in the dragon’s nest and find the secret potion room. Then overpower the Dragon soldier on the steps of the tower and rescue the princess from the dark dungeon! Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier
• Features large catapult, spiral staircase, tower with dungeon and dragon nest with secret gold compartment and potion room
• Large catapult features wheels and a catapult function
• Weapons include 2 swords, spear and a staff
• Accessories include a treasure chest and 2 shields
• Destroy the tower with the powerful catapult
• Free the princess from the dungeon
• Defeat the wizard in his tower
• Find the hidden stash of gold
• Discover the secret potion room
• Launch an aerial attack with the dragon’s poseable wings
• Measures over 8" (21cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 5" (13cm) deep
• Catapult measures over 1" (4cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 3" (9cm) wide
• Dragon measures over 4" (11cm) high, 13" (35cm) long and 13" (33cm) wide

My Analysis: In case you have been living in a cave for the past year or two, Dragons are pretty popular. Just go check out the Ninjaco Theme to see for yourself (If you don't know, it has the best CAGR of any theme at the moment and most of it's lineup is focused on dragons). This set is going to be the best of the bunch in my opinion. We have precedent from a few years ago with the 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison, and this one is going to be the same way. For what you get, the set is priced really well at $49.99 and $.13 a piece because of the dragon. It's amazing looking and that black and red is just incredible. I love this line because of it.

One of my tests for a set I am unsure about is to show it to my wife and see what she thinks as she is a more casual Lego fan. Her mouth fell open looking at the dragon. On top of it, you get a pretty large catapult and 5 more minifigures! Stock up people, this set is going to really dominate this line. I think it could be a $125 set in a few years. The dragon alone will be worth the price of the set's retail price by the time its been EOL for a year or so.

Last, but certainly not least is 74004 King's Castle

From the Lego Website:

Defeat the Dragon soldiers in the final battle at the King’s Castle!
Protect the King and his people from the Dragon soldiers at the King’s Castle! Fire the catapult, lower the drawbridge, raise the gate and lead the charge with the fearless White Knight on his armored horse! Stop the Dragon soldiers before they use the deadly battering ram and catapult weapon. This fantastic modular castle design features towers, a dungeon, the King’s throne, the knights’ table, a moveable staircase, secret escape door and more. Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers.

• Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers
• Features battering ram/catapult weapon, towers, prison, collapsing back wall, King’s throne, knights’ table, moveable staircase, hidden escape door, weapon rack and flags
• Weapons include spiked mace, 3 swords, axe, crossbow and a bow with quiver
• Accessories include 2 shields and a treasure chest
• Push the battering ram to fire the catapult!
• Customize and build your own modular castle design
• Combine with 70402 The Outpost for an even more awesome model
• Measures over 11" (28cm) high, 13" (35cm) wide and 12" (33cm) deep
• Battering ram/catapult weapon measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (9cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide

My analysis: This set is very similar is almost exactly the same size and piece count as the aforementioned older King's Castle that has seen a CAGR of 30%. This one is going to be right there with it in my opinion. First off, the castle looks great and has 7 minifigures, with several being exclusive to the set. Second, this set is a different color scheme which means if builders and collectors have the red line from a few years ago, this one will contrast it well. They could set it up as an opposing kingdom! Castle's themselves have done really well and will continue to because of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings and Monster Fighters and this line itself. This one, in my opinion, will be the second best set of the line and will easily reach the CAGR of the last King's Castle.

Overall Analysis: Though this theme hasn't been the biggest winner of all time, I think Lego has finally figured out exactly what is in right now with castles and dragons. With the added detail and vibrant color scheme of this line, I think these are going to continue the success of the last line of this theme. The last line EOL'd fairly quickly as well so if that happens to these, we could really see some big time gains.

As far as playability, these sets are off the chart with the mass amount of minifigures and the way the sets really come together. I think even if you don't want to invest in these you can agree they would be really fun to have on display, and even more fun to play with.

Either way, I know I am going to follow this one rule with Lego in general: Invest in the Dragons. I encourage you to follow in those footsteps (I definitely didn't pave them so I am following as well).

What do you think will be the biggest winner in this theme? How well do you think the theme will do overall?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

But what makes all of us so attracted to Lego investing over all of these other types of investments? Since I have some experience investing in several different normal investments, I thought I would compare and contrast the pros and cons of a few of these so a few of you who are a little worried about getting in could rest at ease a bit more.

Increased interest Savings Accounts

These are accounts that are offered by the bank when you have a checking account. Most of the time these require a balance of somewhere near $10K and have an interest structure based on how much money is in the account at any given time (the more in the account, the more gaining interest). Currently, to get 2% in these types of accounts is pretty phenomenal. Here are the pros and cons of these types of accounts:

Pros

• Guaranteed growth: Because your money is in a guaranteed growth account, you will never lose money (unless the bank goes under which is a whole other conversation). You will have small growth, but guaranteed money coming in and you can rest easy that you aren't taking a chance.
• You have access to your money at any time – you can pull out of these accounts assuming you don't break the minimum. Even if you have to withdraw everything, you can do it with a very small penalty.
• These types of accounts make it really easy to take out other loans for things like cars, as they can act as collateral. They are a direct asset you can use in debt negotiations, unlike Lego sets.

Cons

• Growth is always the same: There is no sleeper, no fluctuation which means with the very low interest rates, you aren't getting a whole lot out of your money. Think about buying a Lego set that you knew would have a CAGR of 2% for the next 5 years.
• High minimum balances to get the interest rate: This means you always have to have that giant chunk of money in the account to get the interest rate. If you do have to pull money out, your interest rate will go down. The market also somewhat controls these so it will still go down without you doing anything.
• You don't have a whole lot of control over your investment because it is bland gain – no risk, no reward

CDs and Bonds

These are accounts you open with banks or other financial entities where you commit to basically have them hold the money for a period of time (the longer and more money you put in, the better interest rate you get) and they guarantee a certain amount of gain while they have it.

Pros

• Guaranteed growth just like the savings account.
• Can be used as assets for collateral.
• Safe from market problems as the interest rates are fixed and don't flucuate.

Cons

• Interest rates currently are under 1% unless you put in a large sum of money. This means almost anything that nets you positive money is better than the CD you are investing in.
• Interest rates don't fluctuate, meaning if they go way up, you don't benefit until your CD matures
• Money is bound to the CD. If you break the CD, you will pay a penalty on your money and most likely forfeit all of the interest you gained. This also takes a trip to the bank and paperwork which means your investment is not very accessible.

The Stock Market

This one is obviously the most popular because of the possibilities of making insane amounts of money at any point in time. Everyone will use this at some point; if you have a 401K you are already involved with it. This is a very time consuming activity, but can net some serious rewards.

Pros

• You control your investment. You can pull money out and put money in at any time (although you do pay fees).
• Invest at the right time and sell at the right time, you can make more money than you can ever dream of.
• There are a wide variety of investment types available and a wide range of companies to choose from to invest with.
• There is more information than anyone could ever actually use because of the popularity.

Con

• This is where the bubble lies. One second, you have millions, and the next, you have nothing.
• Volatile, as the last point suggested, because it is based on so many outside unpredictable factors like asset freezing, government spending, company decisions you don't hear about until after they are made, and most of all speculation.
• Though there is a ton of information, everyone is saying something different. There are too many opinions to really be able to perfectly compare each and every stock.
• Proven track records mean very little. See Apple Inc.
• Tons of work involved for the investor. You have to pay attention to tons of market factors you can't control at all times. There is no off-season. There is no clearance.

Mutual Funds

These are like savings accounts based on the stock market. You give your money to other people and they invest it for you and grow your portfolio without you having to choose investments and do research.

Pros

• Normally advertised gains are usually around 10% or more.
• Very little work from you.
• If you are going to invest in the stock market, these people are the ones who actually know it (or should anyway).

Cons

• Someone else has your money and you aren't controlling it.
• If your money is lost, you have no recourse in most situations.
• Just as volatile as the stock market.
• You don't see up to date statics of your money constantly so it's hard to know when to remove your money.
• Money is not accessible.

Lego Investing

So why is Lego, in my opinion, better than all these? First off, the Lego market is not near as volatile as these other markets. Yes, there are ups and downs with the economy, but Lego as a company has a proven track record and popularity is only growing. There are many less outside factors involved making your money safer. Where as if a company went under you might lose all your money invested in it, if Lego went down, while hampering future gains, all our sets would immediately go through the roof!

You also have control over your money to choose your investments and it is much less time consuming than the stock market. You have sites like this with statistics and other proven investors to help you in what to purchase. Because this is dealing with one type of item , these statistics matter a lot more. You can actually draw correlations because there are so many data points that are similar and there aren't a bunch of random outside factors that can make a set go down in value. Generally these outside factors only make set's values go up (like a controversy or an early retirment)

You can say, if you want less volatility, what about the CDs and the savings accounts? The returns are the problem. Even if you invest $100K in these accounts, at 2% you are going to come out with $2000 in one year. Lego's average theme CAGR is over 10%! And, while some sets definitely don't hit this, there are a very small number of sets that actually lose value. If you get sets on sale in general at the right price, you can avoid risk completely as being a fixed price investment, event he worst doesn't lose too much money and can generally never become worth nothing.

Here are the pros and cons as I see them:

Pros

• You control your investments
• You have statistics and experiences you can learn from that actually provide data you can trust
• Dealing with one product and one company, not a bunch of different companies
• Outside factors generally only help increase the value, not lower it.
• Fixed price investment so the price can not go down near as easily unless a set is super discounted.
• Average CAGR is over 10%

Cons

• Though growth is pretty low risk, it is not guaranteed.
• Takes more time than savings accounts and CDs to manage.
• Money is not readily available and can not always be used to count as assets.
• Increased Investors can thin out the market.
• Can't get rich quick.

As always, you should make your own decisions, but I wanted to offer up why some of us, even newer investors, are so sure this market will be there. Hopefully this can help you decide what is the best for you, and rest easy with your choice to invest in Lego.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

7181 TIE Interceptor - 2000
This is a very epic model of the TIE Interceptor, and has very nice black box, that many investors and collectors miss. Unfortunately, it seems that LEGO's partnership with Star Wars requires all Star Wars products to have the same icon in the upper right corner of the box, depending in the time that the product was released. Sets after 2006 have all had images in the uper right similar to other Star Wars products, not only LEGO, making them stand out less amongst others. I eliminated this set from the list of potential remakes because there seem to be better choices for remakes, as it is not as popular of a vehicle than many others through the Star Wars galaxy.

7191 X-Wing Fighter - 2000
I doubt that we will be seeing another remake of this set quite so soon. As one of the first UCS models ever to be made, it seems fitting that it should be remade after 13 years of its release. The X-Wing is one of the most iconic sets in Star Wars, and has 12 sets with "X-Wing" in its name. Should it be remade again in the near future, I seriously doubt, unless The LEGO Company makes it habit to remake UCS models more often, which might be the case, with the large quantity of remakes we have seen, especially in the Summer 2013 LEGO Star Wars sets.

10018 Darth Maul - 2001
I think that a bust of a character in Star Wars is imminent, whether it be Darth Maul or a Clone Trooper. There have only been three "brick" models of Star Wars characters in the UCS line, Darth Maul, Yoda, and R2-D2. Since R2-D2 has been released so recently, it seems that The LEGO Group is picking back up the "busts" of characters. I don't think that Darth Maul will be remade, but a similar structure of him will be soon be released probably.

10019 Rebel Blockade Runner - 2001
The Rebel Blockade Runner would have been a great possibility of a remake, except that the Tantive IV set was released in 2009. Though there is still a possibility, I think it isn't as likely as other candidates. TLG has released UCS models while non-UCS versions of the same vehicle have been in production though, so having one several years after a non-UCS model is possible.

7194 Yoda - 2002
Here's the second "brick" model of a character from the Star Wars saga. Rather than a bust of Yoda, this model is a full bodied model of him. Like I said in the analysis of Darth Maul, I think an "brick" model of a character is very likely, but of Yoda, probably not.

10026 Special Edition Naboo Starfighter - 2002
One of my personal favorites of the UCS line, since it proves that bigger is not always better. I think a remake of this set is unlikely because TLG has a big habit of making thousand piece UCS sets. This is a one-of-a-kind UCS set, so remaking it would be a shame, IMO. Also, if LEGO were to remake this set, I'm pretty sure that it would not have chrome pieces, as those seem to be getting rarer and rarer.

10030 Imperial Star Destroyer - 2002
I struck this one off my list immediately, because of the Super Star Destroyer, then quickly rethought. The Imperial Star Destroyer and Super Star Destroyer and just about as close to remakes we have had in the UCS sub-theme, before the X-Wing remake. LEGO has been very systematic with the models of Star Destroyers, releasing one every four years. I don't think that we will see another UCS version of a Star Destroyer in the next couple years, but a non-UCS version is very likely.

10129 Rebel Snowspeeder - 2003
This set is ranked #2 of potential remakes in my book. One of the coolest vehicles IMO in the Battle of Hoth, save the AT-AT's. On my analysis, I wrote "many minifigure-scale sets", but I didn't strike it off the list because the X-Wing Starfighter has behaved similarly. I think in the next couple years, the Rebel Snowspeeder will be a big competitor for more UCS treatment.

10134 Y-Wing Attack Starfighter - 2004
The Y-Wing is the most likely UCS model to be remade. Along with the X-Wing, and TIE Fighter, the Y-Wing is among the most popular in the whole Star Wars universe. Though 2 less sets with "Y-Wing" in name, it is still a widely made, and remade set, making it a big contester for a remake. The 10134 Y-Wing is on the smaller side of UCS models, so I expect a larger one to be made in the near future.

10143 Death Star II - 2005
The Death Star II is one of the most expensive and valuable Star Wars sets out there, and for good reason. Though no minifigures are included in it, it is a huge set, and a great display. This UCS model had very odd pricing, the only to my knowledge to be priced at $298.99 rather than $299.99. This being the second largest UCS model makes it an unlikely candidate, but its recognizability makes it a prime possibility for remaking.

10174 Imperial AT-ST - 2006
There have been a surprising amount of AT-ST's made throughout the Star Wars line, with 6 made with "AT-ST" in name. This set isn't a big contender for UCS treatment, because of its more recent appearance as a UCS set, and because it wouldn't be a large set.

10175 Vader's TIE Advanced - 2006
Not a likely candidate IMO because it is recent, and there are many other TIE Fighters. What I am anticipating is a UCS TIE Fighter, that isn't a TIE Advanced or TIE Interceptor in the near future. Look out for one of them, people! I am surprised one hasn't already been made because there are 10 sets with "TIE Fighter" in name.

10179 Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon - 2007
Though many investors and collectors would be heartbroken if the Millennium Falcon were remade, I think that even if it were, it would not be nearly as epic or eye popping than the 10179. Maybe a smaller version is in the makings with 2,000 pieces or less, but not a larger one than that. I think that many LEGO designers respect the beauty and iconic-ness of this set not to remake it quite nearly the same.

10186 General Grievous - 2008
This is the first Technic UCS model, and it is pretty cool. It doesn't include a whole lot of pieces, but it does convey a much more accurate picture than could have been made using regular LEGO bricks. I've said it once, and I'll say it again. I don't think that a Technic General Grievous is going to be remade in the near future, but a model of a different character, maybe C3PO is highly probable.

10188 Death Star - 2008
I've never heard of a remake of a set that hasn't retired, so I think it's safe to say that we won't see a remake of the 10188 Death Star. Wouldn't it be great if there was, and it lasted just as long? I'm sure many investors would absolutely love holding a set for 5+ years!!

The rest of the sets in the UCS line, I decided not to write about because they were to recent to be remade, or still in production.

10212 Imperial Shuttle - 2010
10215 Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter - 2010
10221 Super Star Destroyer - 2011
10225 R2-D2 - 2012
10227 B-Wing Starfighter - 2012
10240 Red Five X-Wing Starfighter - 2013

To tap even more into the SWs market, back in 2009 the company decided to offer a little something extra to those Star Wars LEGO fans as part of the May the 4th promotions, and that was the beginning of a series of promotional give outs that, along with the discounts, would be the center of attention and discussion with LEGO fans for several weeks before the even. Let's take a quick look at all of the May the 4th promos that have been released so far:

2009

Comments: As mentioned before, this was the promo that started it all. A very nice and collectable poster showcasing most of the SW LEGO minifigs that had been released up to that point. I have had a really hard time finding any listings of this item for sale on eBay, something that is not unexpected given it has been around 4 years already and posters are definitely not in the same league as minifigs, they get easily damaged or lost. I assume that this particular one would go for a decent amount of money (for a poster), as it would be very popular with some collectors.

2010

Comments: In this second May the 4th promotion LEGO went one step further when it came to the exclusiveness of the promotion. Even though all qualifying orders got an exclusive sticker sheet with several Star Wars characters, the main incentive of the whole event was the chance to get one of the only 2 Bronze Boba Fett you see pictured above. Basically, only one person would randomly get this desirable minifig. I could not find anything about a sale regarding this particular one, but if Mr.Gold (5000 copies and made of cheap plastic) is selling consistently for $600, then you can only imagine how much this guy here would go for.

2011

Comments: In 2010 LEGO decided to do better than a poster and also go with something more widespread than just 1 minifigure in the entire world as a promotion: a LEGO Shadow ARF Trooper minifig was given away for free with qualifying SW orders.

This was actually the beginning of a tradition that has been going on for the past 4 years, LEGO SW minifigs given out as a free item on the May the 4th events. This particular one forms part of the Clone Wars universe, even though from what I read it is not an actual character that is mentioned anywhere, just a twist on the regular ARF Trooper. The minifigure is currently selling at around $ 25 on eBay, and that is pretty good for something that cost you nothing.

2012

Comments: 2012 brought us the silver counterpart to C-3PO, the TC-14 minifig. This particular minifig was, in my opinion, a very good choice for LEGO to produce as their May the 4th exclusive, as it is a character that we do not often see and will retain more value as a result. The figure is currently selling for around $ 22 on eBay, so once again a pretty good performer in the year or so since its release.

2013

Comments: This year's offering turned out to be another Hoth variation of the popular Han Solo, and a major disappointment for a lot of people as well. Opposite to the previous 2 minifigs, this is a character that has been done time and time again in several different variations, including Hoth, and as such it is a lot more widespread and common. Again, getting it for free is always good, but if you take a look at eBay the last bunch have been selling for around $10 already indicating that this one may not be as popular as some of the others (something that was said a lot in the forums). We will have to wait and see for how much this one goes in the next months to a year to accurately say it was really a flop.
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As you can see, the May the 4th promotional items that were originally posters or a special give away have changed into the release of an exclusive minifigure for the 1 or 2 days of the event. For investors, the inclusion of this extras gives an extra incentive to purchase at the LEGO stores and S@H during those days, especially when coupled with what sometimes are great discounts on expensive sets, like it happened this year with the 50% B-Wing or a couple years ago with the 25% 10179 MF.

These promotional items can serve 2 different purposes depending on the investor. One, they can be quickly flipped the same or a couple days after the event for a decent amount of money in a way to reduce even more the costs of some of the investments purchased on the day. In order to maximize your earnings you should expect to make your purchases in the store and as early as possible, as this will give you some time to list the promo immediately and get the most money possible before there is a flood of them in the market, something that usually happens as more people get their online orders and get back home from the stores.

Two, investors can decide to hold to the minifigures as an investment as well. It seems that the other 2 May the 4th minifigures that have been released are consistently going for over $20 after they have been out for at least a year, so one would hope most of the others that are released in the future will achieve the same kind of value. Having said that, this will also depend on how popular and really exclusive the minifigure is, as I don't think Han Solo (Hoth) will be getting the same amount of money as a never seen before TC-14. Something else to consider in this scenario are the opportunity costs. Even if the minifigure sells for $25 a year from today, you have to believe there are better ways to invest that money today that will guarantee you a more substantial profit.

Let me wrap up with a couple of important, if sometimes obvious, points:

• On the day of the event, and if you have a LEGO store near you, try to be at the store as early as possible. The faster you get the promotional items, the faster you will be able to list them for and get a higher dollar amount.
• Break your orders into several smaller ones. Say this past May the 4th you had planned to buy 3 B-Wings at 50%, it would have made sense to make three different purchases of one each to get three copies of Han Solo.
• Evaluate the appeal of the minifig since its announcement. You can usually tell how really exclusive or interesting a minifigure is as soon as it is announced, and this two points are the most important determinants of value in this cases. Never seen before characters (TC-14) will probably do a lot better than variations of common ones (Han Solo)
• Take into account the opportunity costs of holding the minifigure as an investment. Those $30 you MIGHT get next year may be worth less than the $20 you can get today.

Thanks for reading!

Investing and Reselling:

Polybag Investor - Has less than $200 in investment sets, and more than 10 sets.

Rookie to the Game - $300-$800 invested into LEGO, but has invested less than a month.

Hoarder - Never sold a set, and just likes looking at rows and rows of boxes.

Loyalist - Invests and resells only LEGO bricks. No Barbies, no cosmetic supplies.

Cloner - Tends to gravitate towards having multiple of a certain set rather than having a variety of different sets.

TWIIL - Teen Who Invests In LEGO: When being a TFOL doesn't cut it! You must get to the next level!

Old Timer - Has more than 30 "old" NISB sets from before 1995.

LFFL - Lego Fan For Life a rival to Ed Mack's collection of NISB sets, of 2,000+.

Dory - For those of you who have never watched Finding Nemo, or don't remember, Dory is the never-quit fish that sang "Just Keep Swimming". This is an investor who has a never quit attitude, but has never made a winning investment.

Surgeon - The reseller who parts out sets, rather than selling NISB sets.

Micro-manager - Invests on a small scale, and owns several larger sets, but not a large amount.

The Hopeful - The reseller who combs retail chains daily, but never seems to find as great a deal as others.

The Picker - The reseller who buys large miscellaneous lots of LEGO, then picks through for pieces, then sends it on to another person.

That Guy - The guy who is there for the money.

Picky, Picky - Only will invest in a single theme.

Believer - Thinks that Chima speedorz might actually make a good investment.

Collecting: The Librarian - The super organized collector who is the envy of all...

The Builder - Loves to build once, then throw into the pile

Man-Child - The adult who should be doing other things than on LEGO internet forums and buying sets, such as <according to his wife>, doing the dishes.

Historian - Keeps a detailed list of all LEGO sets owned, and preserves instructions and boxes.

Vaccuum - Sets go in, but are never seen again...

The Mixer - LEGO's? MegaBloks? Kre-o? What's the difference?

General Nicknames:

The Romantic - Or not. The LEGO fan who ditches girlfriends when she can't tell the difference between LEGO's and MegaBloks.

Girly Man - Friends sets? No shame!!

I Feel for You - Quite literally. This is the label for all of you who feel through bags of CM's.

A Hardened Soul - Stepping on LEGO's? No problem! The souls of my feet are hardened!

The Nerd - Knows more than 50 set numbers and names from memory, without trying!

I hope you like this list I put together. It was pretty fun for me to write and have a break from investing articles, but still write about something LEGO! If you have any other ideas, feel free to list them in the comments section below!

Although they are sometimes shunned by Brickpickers for newer, more complex, or licensed sets that have been designed to bring the sizzle, there are some GREAT looking sets hiding among these "old school" themes. Many times the unique, unusual and/or striking sets become the sought after sets, and eventually investment winners. To highlight some of the best of these, I thought I would borrow from Dave Letterman and assemble a top ten list of the most eye catching sets of the old school Lego themes that hide from us in plain sight every day. To clarify, the only sets eligible for this list are sets from the four evergreen themes that are currently posted on Lego S@H: City, Galaxy Squad, Castle, and Technic. Without further ado, here they are:

10. 60008 - Museum Break-In

We start with 60008 Museum Break-In, the only Police Subtheme set on the list and the most unique model among the current Police lineup. Museum Break-In includes a really cool building model that would make a great addition to any city MOC, two police vehicles (a car and helicopter), and a get-away van to transport some really cool loot: two translucent gems, a gold nugget, a gold plate and a gold katana blade straight from Ninjago. Lots of playability, two vehicles, and six minifigs combine to create an exceptional City set.

9. 4204 - The Mine

Clocking in at #9 is a personal favorite of mine, 4204 The Mine. The Mine resides in that wonderful, profitable rotating City subtheme that includes a number of unique models. Other notable residents of this subtheme include Farm, Construction, and Airport sets, among others. I think the entire Mining subtheme has flown a little under the radar, and its flagship has the best chance at post-EOL success. The Mine model includes an actual mine with a drill site, complete with stone, opening boulders, and a whole host of gold crystals and bars. It's reminiscent of a really old set from 1981, 6383 Public Works Center, complete with a crane and conveyor belt. The Mine also has three sharp vehicles including a great looking earth drill, a dump truck, a hopper that runs on a track, and four miner minifigs that complete the setting of a functioning mine. Uniqueness will carry the day for this set, and I'm fairly certain we will not see another City mine for at ten years.

8. 70708 Hive Crawler

The first of two Galaxy Squad entrants in the top ten, 70708 Hive Crawler just looks awesome. All of the bugs in the new Galaxy Squad theme are so underrated, but to me, the Hive Crawler bug's size and colors bring the set to another level. The set consists of the monstrous beetle-ish bug, two squeamishly cool larvae, and three minifigs: one alien bug, one Galaxy Squad troop, and one robot sidekick. This set rocks because of the alien bug's colors and its size and detail. Some of the pieces that comprise the bug's abdomen also appear to be unique to this set. Also included are two mini-vehicles for the Galaxy Squad figs that add a nice, playable feature to the set. This set is one of the smaller of the top ten, but righfully deserves its place among them.

7. 9397 Logging Truck

I love this set. The truck cab and log holder look great and the articulating arm looks awesome, although admittedly it's balky and not intuitive to operate. I also love the addition of the Technic log to the set. Yet, what really propels this set into the top ten is it's B-build: a mega-sized dump truck that includes a snow plow and a back bucket that tips to dump its contents. It also has Power Functions, a must-have Technic feature that immediately adds appeal to any Technic set. Getting two awesome builds for the price of one is great value, and propels 9397 to number seven on the countdown.

6. 7939 Cargo Train

What 7938 Passenger Train lacks in character, 7939 Cargo Train provides in spades. This model includes not only a great looking R/C engine with a realistic yellow and black exterior, it also includes three great rail cars with realistic cargo, a loading crane to put cargo on the train, and even a semi-truck that brings the cargo to the crane from your Lego City. This set is the result of a phenomenal concept that was really well executed. While this model checks in at number six on this countdown, I wouldn't be surprised if it provided the best return of all sets on this list.

5. 70403 Dragon Mountain

Another smaller set with a $50 USD MSRP, 70403 Dragon Mountain was my favorite set of all the newly released Castle theme sets. First off, I'm a sucker for dragons, and this maxi-fig doesn't disappoint. The dragon is a menacing red and black, and includes flapping wings, a rotating head, articulating limbs, and even a hole near the mouth to plug in some Lego fire. The tail appears to have two rotation points, and the arms appear to be spaced perfectly so that it can clutch a Lego treasure chest. If the dragon doesn't impress, there's also a small base for the Red Dragon army, complete with a prison and wizarding perch, that sits over a cave opening where the dragon can protect his treasure. The model also includes a beefy catapult, one knight and one spearman minifig from the King's Army and the queen minifig. The Red Dragon wizard and a Red Dragon soldier round out this robust little set. I believe this will be the best performer of the latest Castle theme due to the presence of this awesome dragon and the five minifigs.

4. 8110 Unimog U400

This set earns every bit of praise it receives. As one of the most expensive Technic sets ever made, Unimog has been designed to include a number of functions that demostrate the genius of Lego Technic. It's also huge, and a very challenging build. To round out the appeal of the set, it's licensed by none other than Mercedes Benz, an automobile icon worldwide. The cherry on the Unimog sundae is the pneumatic articulating arm that can load the utility truck. The pneumatic arm is phenomenal, although it has one wart: when loaded, the arm sometimes doesn't clear the side of the truck bed. A little reengineering wipes these problems away quickly. This Unimog will never be duplicated by TLG, so grab one if you can.

3. 70709 Galactic Titan

Everything that makes Galaxy Squad, and space themes in general, great is rolled into one phenomenal, brawny space tracker called the Galactic Titan. The vehicle itself is a space "plane" that interlocks with a wide buggy that allows the Titan to track around an alien planet. The design of this set is breathtaking: the complementary blue accent colors contrast beautifully against the snow white vehicle, the Titan itself projects the proper amount of sleek, brawn and power with its size and shaping, and it just looks cool. To add even more appeal to an already awesome set, the Galactic Titan is paired with a creepy-crawly looking centipede, and the only alien bug "base" of the theme (be aware it's not large), complete with two pods for capturing the Galaxy squad troops. The minifigs are great too, with two GS troops, a robot sidekick, and two alien bugs: a mosquitoid and the exclusive mantizoid. The set also includes one of those wriggly larvae, a nice finish to an otherwise kick-ass set. I actually think Galactic Titan could have some moderate secondary success, although I wouldn't count on a blow out for this model.

2. 60014 Coast Guard Patrol

I'm sure by now you've noticed a common thread linking these sets: high ranks go to sets with additional vehicles or vignettes that add depth to the set, i.e. the alien base of the Galactic Titan, or the three vehicles of The Mine. Coast Guard Patrol really brings this "value add" to a new level: in addition to the striking orange, blue and white ship, the Coast Guard Patrol includes a submarine, a sizable inflatable boat, a helicopter, a small lighthouse, three sharks, six minifigs, a dog, and even a crab! That's a load of playability and some serious depth for any Lego set, and this comes with one of the coolest ships ever introduced by Lego. On the ship itself, there's a level below deck, and a bridge above deck for the minifigs to roam, a helicopter landing pad in the front, and a submarine launch in the back. The submarine itself is an unmanned version reminiscent of Bob Ballard's Titanic expeditions, and is hoisted onto deck by a rack mounted to the back of the boat. All the vehicles, save the distressed boat, are designed in the emblatic blaze orange and royal blue of prior Coast Guard sets, and after all these years the color scheme still looks awesome. This set isn't just a boat, it's an entire Coast Guard fleet preparing to do its critical job of patrolling the seas. Rest assured, you will not find David Hasselhoff in this bay watch set...

1. 60026 Town Square

The #1 spot in our top ten list is occupied by a yet-to-be released set, 60026 Town Square. Town Square is a version of the previously popular 7641 City Corner on steroids. 60026 has two buildings, two mega-vehicles, and oodles of detail oozing out of box. The two buildings are retail shops: "Bike Shop" is a two story motorcyle/bicycle store housed in a corner building with two storefronts; and "City Pizza" is a single story, horizontally-oriented pizza joint with interior and patio seating. The city bus is phenomenal, sporting a newer, sleeker look and color scheme, while the mobile crane is equally impressive with a telescoping boom and stabilizing outriggers.

While these buildings and mega-vehicles provide a firm foundation for the desirabliity of this set, its true magic resides in the depth of its detail. In addition to the previously discussed components, Town Square also comes with a slick little street sweeper, a motorcycle, two bicycles, a billboard, and countless other adds that really make this set appealing. There are also a gaggle of minifgs to round out the set, with eight residents populating Town Square. Finally, the piece-de-resistance of this set is the stone medieval statue: this finishing touch adds a historical context and classic touch to the City, and only needs a pigeon and some white poop stickers to make it more true-to-life.

Town Square deserves the top spot in our rankings. While it's a throwback to yesteryear's Town sets, it doesn't come off as dated or dusty. I think the same holds true for every set in the top ten: it's easy to see the traces of prior sets that we 30-40 somethings grew up building and enjoying. Perhaps that familiarity is why we're drawn back to Lego - after 25 years, we still see and feel the echoes of our childhoods. While these ten sets have hints of models past, hopefully they will delight future generations of Lego enthusiasts and a current generation of Brickpickers!

• If you have old polybags from old promotions like Mcdonalds or TRU those would go a lot more than average polybags
• Holiday polybags go more than average one
• They are Halloween, Christmas , May the Fourth , Easter and Summer polybags
• LEGO Brickmaster sets would go for a lot more than average because they were not for sale in stores
• The only thing more than that is some sort of comic/toy con polybags/ sets from the NYC Toy Fair/SDCC
• Polybags might not bring you crazy profits but it can help new LEGO investor invest.

Also, polybags are excellent choices for LEGO investors on a budget. Many double or triple their purchase price months after the set is retired.

Another positive feature of polybags is that they take up very little space to store. Storage is much simpler when investing in smaller polybags. This might help people living in apartments or small houses.

I don't really want for this to become a sort of competitive comparison between the two, since I believe that by default the great majority of the UCS sets easily beats any released that is designed as a play-set. There are several reasons for this and most are out of the scope of this article, but the most important one to me has to do with the fact that play-sets are geared more towards young people that will usually not be able to afford a very expensive set even if it is retired, while the UCS sets are most appealing to AFOL's that are usually more willing and able to spend their money in collectible items.

Another factor I did wanted to mention is that, up until the new 10240 X-Wing, no set from the UCS had been re-released, something that can't be said in the case of play-sets. Play-set versions tend to be re-made in a somewhat often basis, especially for those very popular sets like the Millenium Falcon, X-Wing, Y-Wing, etc. As it is usually the case with re-makes, the value of the older versions tends to decrease, sometimes by significant amounts.

Having said that, I will place some of the stats of the UCS sets along with their play-set version, just for comparison purposes, and in some you may even be able to see that the difference in the numbers is not as high as one would expect. In my opinion, the most important statistic you can evaluate is the % Change Over Retail, since CAGR may be even more distorted by the difference in the time periods two particular sets have been released.

From this point forward, here is what I will be doing: I will take the entire list of sets released under the UCS and look for the play-set counterparts for each set. In case a particular set has more than one play-set version, like the X-Wing and most others really, I will take the 2 or 3 largest ones when analyzing the numbers. Let's see what we find out.
- 10026 UCS Naboo Starfighter

Play-set Versions

- 7141 Naboo Fighter

Comments: This was the first version ever released of the big yellow ship, and as you can see it is actually quite old considering it still displayed the System logo. The set came with four minifigs, with the only exclusive one being a variation of Anakin Skywalker, and was built from around 180 pieces, making it also the smaller model of its type.

Investment wise the set has performed very poorly, with a CAGR of only 3% and selling for only around $ 15 over retail after more than a decade of its retirement. Interesting that this set has really not done better considering it was released the same year the Phantom Menace was in theaters, which I would think would give it some sort of extra popularity. It seems clear that is just not the case.

- 7660 Naboo N-1 Starfighter

Comments: The second version of the ship was released in 2007, and different from its older version this one included one other ship besides the Naboo fighter, the Vulture Droid. Minifigure wise, the set included three minifigs with the most interesting one being kid Anakin Skywalker, only found in one other set. This version was also a lot less blocky and better designed that its predecessor, not that it seemed to help it much in the secondary market.

Retired in 2009, this is yet another version of the N-1 that has not performed very well. Considering it has been retired around 4 years already and only presents a CAGR of 6% and a % change over retail only 40% (not much for a set with a MSRP of only $30), this set is another bad performer, and makes you notice that there might be a trend when it comes to models based in this particular ship.

- 7877 Naboo Starfighter

Comments: And we have come up to the latest remake that has been released of the Naboo Starfighter. This is the largest and most accurate model LEGO has released other than the UCS edition, and it included 6 minifigs in total if you count the destroyer droid

This set was a Target exclusive, so that in theory should give it some sort of more limited availability than most other sets. However, we can see that the ship was retired by LEGO sometime between December 2012 and January of this year, yet the model is readily available at retail or even below retail and several outlets, including Target. I think this speaks volumes about the popularity of the set, and make me think that this one will be no different than the other ones that have been retired for a long time. In short, this will be an investment loser or at least take a very long time to be a decent sale.

Naboo Starfighter Summary: It seems pretty clear that with the exception of the UCS version of the ship, none of the other sets that have been released as play-sets have been nor will be investment winners even in the very long term. I am willing to give the latest model the benefit of the doubt, but it really does not look promising for this set to still be available for under MSRP after LEGO officially retired it. The failure of these sets to take off in the secondary market may be related to the fact that LEGO has re-released this set three different times, but at no point any of these seems to have been selling for much more than they are now, and that makes me think the ship is just not as popular. Even when you analyze the performance of the UCS version, you have to remember that the model is actually the cheapest one that has been released under the series, was a very limited edition and included a bunch of chrome pieces that I believe we have never seen on any other set. These factors and not the ship itself I think played a very large role in the great growth that set has experienced.

- 10215 Obi-Wans Jedi Starfighter

Play-Set Versions - 7143 Jedi Starfighter

Comments: This is really the only play-set that has been released depicting Obi-Wan's starfighter that I could find, even though LEGO has released several other starfighters used by some of the other Jedis like Anakin. This very small version of Obi-Wan's ship comes with only one minifig of Kenobi that is completely exclusive to the set and usually sells for around $8.

The performance of this set is actually quite respectable, considering it was very small and basic looking. At this point, the CAGR of the set is close to 9% and the % change over retail ($20) is 154.48%. Oddly enough, this set has seen a huge increase in value over the past 6 months, going from around $34 to more than $50, an increase of almost 50% over the period.

Obi Wan's Starfighter Summary: The really old and basic 7143 has performed a lot better than its newer and more expensive sibling. The UCS Jedi Starfighter is really not one of the most popular sets, and even though it has been retired for a little more than a year it has not been able to sell consistently over retail. Having said that, the ship itself really has no seen an exact re-release over the past few years, something that speaks volume as the overall popularity of the design.

- 7181 TIE Interceptor

Play-Set Versions - 6206 TIE Interceptor

Comments: This has been the only significant play set version of the TIE Interceptor LEGO has released. There are some small and even mini sets, but I will focus on this one since it fits the most with what I am evaluating in this article. This relatively small set (212 pieces) was released in 2006 and included only 1 very generic minifig in the TIE Interceptor Pilot, so nothing of particular value on that front. Originally selling for around $ 20 this set has actually performer a lot better than several other play-sets based on UCS ships, currently selling for more than double and presenting a CAGR of over 12% since retirement. These gains may not seem particularly interesting for some, but a rate of return over 10% annually is really very respectable.

TIE Interceptor Summary: The 7181 UCS Interceptor was one of the first sets released under the popular UCS line, and as such it has performed extremely well since it was retired, so it is really not even comparable to its play-set version on that front. Having said that, the 6202 version has done pretty well itself for being a somewhat small set with nothing especially interesting about it in the form of minifgs or exclusive parts. From the data, it also seems that the set reached a very high point within the first 2 years of its retirement, so someone who stocked up on these would have almost doubled their original investment relatively quickly.

- 10174 AT-ST

Play-Set Versions

- 7127 Imperial AT-ST

Comments: This was actually the first version (If I'm not mistaken) of the AT-ST LEGO released, and it was a pretty small and cheap model (107 pieces, $10). It did have a Chewbacca minifig, but other than that looking it now it really looks like a very bad recreation of the actual ship mostly due to the small piece count and the fact that LEGO really was not at what I consider the top of their game with some of these older models. Having said that, the set has performed decently in the secondary market selling for three times retail. Surprisingly, there are several of these (New) sold each month on eBay, probably due to it being the most affordable version that is not Mini scale.

- 7657 AT-ST

Comments: This is the largest stand-alone AT-ST other than the UCS version. The model is actually pretty accurate and also includes the only appearance of the AT-ST pilot minifig to date. With almost 250 pieces and retailing for $ 20 this set probably was the most affordable choice to get a decently sized AT-ST. Currently, the set is doing pretty good with a CAGR of 20% and a % change over retail very close to 200%. Some of the aspects that caused this one to succeed in the secondary market could be related to the exclusive minifig and its shorter duration on the retail shelves.

AT-ST Summary: The AT-ST has always been one of the most popular vehicles from the Star Wars universe, and if you take a look at the number of 10174s sold in the past 12 months you will notice that it has been actually one of the top sellers of the entire UCS by far. The play-set versions have done relatively well, especially the newer one, but one can't really say they have exploded in value like in some other cases. I am kind of surprised LEGO has not released a larger version of this to bridge the gap between 7657 and the UCS version, as I believe that it would be a very successful product both in the primary and secondary market.

- 10175 Vader's TIE Advanced

Play-Set Versions

- 8017 Vader's TIE Fighter

Comments: The 8017 Vader's TIE was released in 2008 and included what at the time was the new version of the Darth Vader minifig. On top of that, LEGO randomly inserted a chrome version of Vader in some of the boxes in a similar fashion to Gold C-3PO. The set itself includes around 250 piece and it is, to the best of my knowledge the only play-set version of Vader's ship to date. The investment numbers for this set are very respectable, with a CAGR close to 28% and a % change over retail of 162%. Given its MSRP and its size, this would have been an excellent set to stock up on back in 2010.

Something to note is that after a few months of very stable value, the set has experienced a period of high growth over the past 6 months, increasing around 20% over that period alone. What fueled that unexpected change of pace in growth is beyond me, but the overall conclusion is that the set has become more volatile for some obscure reason (it lost 15% in the last month too).

Vader's TIE summary: I am really surprised this ship has not been released more frequently, as it seems to be very popular with SW fans. The UCS version has grown very consistently over the past 6 months as well, and is getting very close to $ 400. The play-set version has not much to envy about its larger relative, as it has done very well in the secondary market in the 3 years it has been retired. Considering it would have been much easier to invest in the smaller set rather than the UCS, an intelligent investor could have secured the same or more profits by investing in large quantities of the smaller version rather than in just a couple of the UCS.

- 7191 X-Wing

Play-Set Versions

- 6212 X-Wing

Comments: This version of the popular X-Wing was released in 2006 and included an exclusive variation of Wedge Antilles as well as 5 other more common minifigs. The set was available for around 4 complete years, and despite it being retired for around two years already, it has not performed well at all in the secondary market. 6212 has not even gone up 10% over its original retail price, in fact, it has lost value relative to where it was 2 and 1 year ago, as well as 6 and 1 month ago. A definite investment loser.

- 4502 X-Wing

Comments: Even though this set consists of more than just the X-Wing, I feel that it still deserved a place in the list. 4502 was a very unique set since it depicted scenes from Luke's training in Dagobah, while including Yoda's Hut as well as a more particular X-Wing with some foliage attached to it as a result of being in the swamp waters. The set also included an exclusive Luke (Dagobah) minifig. Investment wise, this has been an all out winner going almost 190% over retail since retirement. This is something we don't see often with X-Wing play-sets but, again, this one is a very unique model.

X-Wing Summary: The X-Wing is one of the most popular ships and as one would expect it is also one of the sets LEGO likes to re-release the most. That fact alone is probably the biggest reason most of these play-set versions really don't do as well as others when retired, with the notable exception of the Dagobah model and 7142. The UCS version has been one of the best performing ships of the collector's series, and now that we have seen the first re-release of its kind with 10240 Red Five, we will have to see how much of an impact it has on the older model over the coming months.

- 10219 Rebel Snowspeeder

- 4500 Rebel Snowspeeder

Comments: This is actually the last time LEGO released the Snowspeeder by itself on a set (2004 and not including Mini). Since then, the ship has been included in most Hoth themed sets. This model in particular including 3 exclusive minifig variations of Dack Ralter, Luke and a Hoth rebel, and has actually more than doubled in value since its retirement (to be expected considering its low MSRP and time out of the market). The interesting thing about this set is that over the past 6 months it seems to have picked up once again in value, growing 25% over the period.

- 7130 Snowspeeder

Comments: One of the older System SW sets (1999). For being the first Snowspeeder ever released I was really surprised to find that the set has "only" doubled in value in over 10 years. Maybe this has something to do with the fact that the colors are not really that accurate to the actual ship, or just that people are not interested in sets that are this old and not UCS.

Snowspeeder Summary: This ship has proven to be an extremely popular one. The UCS version of the set is the 2nd set with the higher % change over retail after the more affordable Naboo Starfighter. Play-set versions have not come even close in any instance, and LEGO seems to have abandoned the idea of producing stand alone Snowspeeders in favor of including them in larger sets like some of the Hoth bases and others we have seen over the past few years. I really think that a relatively big stand alone Snowspeeder, even if not UCS, would be extremely popular both with fans and investors.

- 10134 Y-Wing

Play-Set Versions

- 7658 Y-Wing

Comments: The Y-Wing has seen its fair share of re-makes over the course of the years, but most of them have been produced along some other ships like the TIE or just too recently for us to analyze properly (the new version). This 07 version of the Y-Wing has performed poorly over the almost 4 years it has been retired, hovering very close to the original MSRP. None of the two minifigs are exclusive or interesting, to be honest, and I am sure that has something to do with the low numbers, but the main reason has to be, as with the X-Wing, the re-release of improved versions of this ships over relatively short periods of time.

Y-Wing Summary: The Y-Wing is a popular ship in the SW universe, but it is certainly not the X-Wing or Snowspeeder. The UCS version has performed extremely well, as expected, but the play-set versions have had a hard time growing in value over the course of the years. While collectors and hard core fans propel the value of the UCS version into the skies, it would seem that kids and parents are nor particularly fond of paying large amounts of money for a ship that is constantly on the market. We'll see how the newer version performs once retired, but I don't expect too much.

- 10227 B-Wing

Play-Set Versions

- 7180 B-Wing at Rebel Control Center

Comments: Again, this is one of the older SW LEGO models that really have not taken off as much in price over the course of the years. The set has doubled in value, but relative to the time it has been retired and its MSRP that is really nothing to be very impressed about. For such as small model, the ship is pretty accurate, and the set also included a small control center that would in theory make it more appealing (as well as 3 minifigs, pretty generic ones to be honest), but that has certainly not been the case. Poor performer.

- 6208 B-Wing Fighter

Comments: Unlike the previous entry this all ship model has actually done quite good in the secondary market. It has a % change over retail of almost 200% and a CAGR of around 15%, so very good numbers for such a small set. Moreover, the ship has grown over 11% in the past 6 months, surprising for a set that has been retired for a long time now. More recently, it has been decreasing somewhat significantly, and it will be interesting to see if the massive price drop for the UCS version affects the numbers of this version in the coming months.

B-Wing Summary: The B-Wing is one of the most obscure ships of the SW universe for the casual fan, and one would think that this would have an impact on the performance of the LEGO models. Having said that, the newer 2006 version seems to have done well, so it seems that there is definitely a market interested in the ship. The most important test will come with the apparently close to retirement UCS version. It would appear that the model is not selling well at MSRP, and the deep discounts it suffered on May the 4th have some people thinking it will take a long time for it to recover. I for one, am optimist, but we'll have to wait and see.

- 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner

Play-Set Versions

- 10198 Tantive IV

Comments: This is one of my favorite play-sets of ships from the UCS, along with the 6211 ISD. It is a very good replica of the ship and comes with some very nice minifigs to recreate the original scene from the SW movies, and with 1,400 pieces it is a really large model. This set was retired just last year and it already has gone up 50% over retail over the period, but I honestly expect it to be on part with the 6211 in the long run (more than 200%) as it is the only chance collectors and fans will have to get the set ship for a price significantly lower than the UCS version. This set went up over 10% in the last month alone, so it may be setting itself for a second period of high growth.

Tantive IV Summary: This ship really did not have that much screen time, but I seriously consider iconic and one that every SW collector should own in either of the 2 versions released up to this date. I believe LEGO will not be releasing this set for a long time, so the play-set version may prove to be a great alternative for those, like me, who love this ship and don't want to pay the almost $ 800 the Blockade Runner is going for these days.

- 10212 Imperial Shuttle

Play-Set Versions

- 7166 Imperial Shuttle

Comments: This is another of the classic SW sets released back in 2001. This Shuttle included 3 minifigs, 2 of which where the popular Royal Guards. The set has done pretty well in the secondary market, with a change over retail of over 150% and a CAGR that still hovers close to 9% despite the long time it has been retired. In the past 12 months the set has experimented a lot of volatility, moving between $88 and $108.

- 7264 Imperial Inspection

Comments: As the 4502 Dagobah X-Wing, this set is not a stand alone IS, but rather includes several other positive aspects that more than likely played a role in its superior performance. Apart from the actual ship, the set includes some other small builds, but most importantly it came with an outstanding 10 minifigs! For $ 50, that was a great value for the money and now a great driver of growth in the secondary market. Currrently, the set presents UCS like performance measures, with a 350% change over retail and a CAGR of around 21%.

Imperial Shuttle Summary: Even though the UCS Imperial Shuttle has only recently retired, it has become apparent that following on the footsteps of previous UCS sets it will become a huge winner in the long term. The play-set versions of the ship have done pretty good, especially the 10 minifig Imperial Inspection, and definitely beat some of the other play-sets that we have discussed in the article.

- 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer

Play-Set Versions

- 6211 Imperial Star Detroyer

Comments: A very large play-set with nine cool minifigs, this is yet another model that has performed extremely well in the secondary market. It was the first ever Imperial Star Destroyer released as a play-set, and so far remains the only one. To me, part of its appeal comes from the fact that a large amount of people are not willing or able to spend several hundred dollars in order to purchase the UCS version, and if they really want to add this iconic ship to their collection this might be the only realistic choice. A % change over retail of over 200% and a CAGR of 17% are testament of this set's popularity.

Imperial Star Destroyer summary: This is one example of both the UCS and play-set versions of a ship doing very well after retirement. The ISD is one of the most iconic ships in the SW universe, and one that a huge amount of fans really want to add to their collections. The UCS version was one of the first and still is one of the most impressive sets LEGO has ever released, and as such it is currently selling for over $ 1000. On the other hand, we have the play-set version, that up to this date is the only one released and that came with a decent amount of minifigs and cool features. As said before, this is the only really affordable choice for those who missed on the 10030 or just those looking to play with their LEGO instead of only display them. Still, at over $300 the 6211 is no cheap set.

- 10179 Millennium Falcon

Play-Set Versions

- 7190 Millennium Falcon

Comments: To be honest, this is by far my least favorite version of the MF LEGO has ever released. To me, it just looks awful. I guess we can let it slip when we consider it was released over 12 years ago, but even then you have to wonder how is it possible that LEGO was able to release models like the UCS 7191 and could not get this one right. Anyway, the set has, surprisingly, performed decently with % change over retail of over 130%, enough to put it into the mid $200s.

- 4504 Millennium Falcon

Comments: A much improved version of the MF was released in 2004, but for some crazy reason this one seems to have performed very poorly once retired. There is no way to see exactly where this set was before the 7965 version was released, so the re-make effect may have strongly affected the market value of 4504.

Millennium Falcon summary: The MF is more than likely the single most popular and iconic ship from the whole SW franchise, and often that has translated into great secondary market returns (7910 and 10179). In fact, the 10179 is not only the largest (size) and most expensive (MSRP) LEGO ever released, but also the one that has attained the highest secondary market value at around $2500 (and climbing). The play-set versions have obtained mixed results, but with the very accurate and popular 7965 I really think we might be up for some really nice returns in the near future.

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That was a long journey. As you can see, there have been a lot of varied results when it comes to play-set versions of those ships that make up the UCS, but it is clear that the majority has not come even close to the returns of its larger siblings. Of course, this is a result of a bunch of different factors, like the sheer size of the collector's set and their appeal with AFOLs, the group that most of the time ends up picking up the tab when it comes time to get some "toys".

To conclude, picking up the right SW play-sets is nowhere near as "easy" as picking up the right UCS sets, as there are a lot of other factors that need to be accounted for and that are not that easy to measure. Some of the most obvious ones include the popularity of the overall ship, exclusivity and quantity of minifgs and MSRP, but even these are certainly not a guarantee of future success. The most important issue to remember in this case is that LEGO loves to do play-set remakes, and those will for sure affect in one way or another the value of the previous version. Look for unique play-sets like the Dagobah X-Wing and the Imperial Inspection to have a better shot at better profits.

Thanks for reading!

* Lego still owes us a play-set version of the SSD, so it was not included in the article
* DS 10188 has not been retired, and as such it was not included in the article

Since eventually everyone will get hit with one of these, the following is an experience I just had with a drop-shipper on Ebay. This will show how to deal with it and that you can deal with it once you have already received the item. In the following story, the names have been changed to protect the innocent... and guilty (There are no names I just wanted to say that - anyone used to watch those old Wildest Police Chases shows?).

I recently purchased a Lego Tower Bridge (10214) off Ebay for around $220 new which is a good deal but nothing incredible. I had been looking to find around a 10% discount on the TB as I wanted to add this to my investment portfolio. When I saw the listing, it seemed pretty normal. I went through my normal checking procedures for scams to check out the buyer:

• The seller had sold a lot of Lego sets before and most all around MSRP – they were mostly recent but most of the listings were fairly well written and weren't under priced.
• The handling time said 1 day which seemed legit.
• The item was not free shipping; free shipping can sometimes set you on the scent of a scam artist.
• The seller's feedback was 100% and none of them had mentioned anything about the shipping.
• The seller had no other items listed at the current time to compare with.
• The seller had been on Ebay for a while as a buyer and a seller – normally drop-shippers are only sellers.

So I decided to purchase the item. I paid for it and waited for my set to come in. After about a week, the seller had not added shipping information and had not indicated in Ebay that it had been shipped. My expected receive date was the day I noticed this, so I decided to just send the seller a message. I sent the seller a message asking him if the item had been sent because I sometimes have issues with my neighborhood carriers and wanted to watch for it. The seller indicated it would be sent out the next day, that there was a delay. He didn't elaborate. The way the message was written made me a little uneasy.

I decided to check through everything again and make sure I was right about him seeming legit in the first place. Everything checked out from above. I made a note to keep an eye on it, but right now I had nothing to prove something was wrong with it.

A few days later, I still had not seen the package. I got back on Ebay to send the seller a message and I saw that the item he sold me had been re-listed (Ebay indicated a similar item had been re-listed by the same seller at the top of my purchased listing). I was irritated they had already listed another when I hadn't gotten mine yet so I clicked to see his other items to look at the listing. It was the same, but the seller now had two more Lego Sets – more than $40 under retail. Drop-ship scam alert went off immediately.

It had now been more than ten days since the original listing, so I sent the seller an email that I had not received the item and I was contemplating just canceling the order. the seller sent back a message stating that he it had already been sent and the seller apologized that “my supplier had a delay”. I asked for elaboration – was it drop-shipped? He said it was not, that it was shipped from his supplier to me. I told him that this was what I meant by “drop-ship” and I asked him who his supplier was. He indicated it was Lego themselves...

I did as Talon had indicated and asked once again for the order to be canceled. The seller insisted I would get the item the next day and he was not canceling the order. I decided to go ahead and open the case and put my part of the story out there ahead of time so that I would cover my butt as much as possible. I opened a case that I had not received the item. The seller responded to it very upset that I had opened the case stating that I should “wait until I get it tomorrow and then leave him positive feedback”. A bit zealous. I replied stating that his original listing did not mention the item would be drop shipped and I was not comfortable with it because I did not want to be involved in any possible fraud nor want an order in my name. He responded again saying that it was not drop-shipped, it was sent directly from his supplier. He also stated he was not involved in any fraud – He purchased this with his credit card and his multitude of extra Lego VIP points.

At this point, I knew my only choice was to just wait to respond until I got the item and then do a bit of investigating myself to see if I could get it figured out. I received the item that afternoon and sure enough, directly from Lego and furthermore he had just finally ordered it the day before and spent $40 extra to have it over-nighted to me! $285 dollars spent on something I paid $221 for.

Here is where everything got interesting. I called Lego to alert them and try to find out more. Maybe in some crazy universe, Lego was this guy's supplier and he gets them cheaper than the invoice says or something of that nature. I got on with Lego and of course the woman said my name was on everything. She was very nice. I explained the situation. She indicated they had been seeing this scam quite a lot lately – more than several times a day. She said that they were commonly getting people that were calling in asking about transactions on their credit card accounts they never paid for at all.

In fact, this order was actually flagged as a potential scam! I asked her what that meant and she said that Lego would have emailed and asked for us to contact them before the order went out (I have had this happen legitimately before – May the 4^th B-wings). She said that according to the order, it said I had called in and verified all the information on the order – they had sent the email to the seller's email address. I told her it wasn't me and she said they were working on a better way to verify things. The only thing that was different from my info on the order was the email address and the credit card info (though she said she couldn't see what the info on the credit card was – I am assuming it was pre-paid in someone else's name).

So I told her I could verify if the seller was lying or not by understanding what all they paid with. I told her that the seller indicated most of the purchase came from VIP points. She said not only was that order not paid for with VIP points, she said the email address was registered with another Lego account (good way to hide your criminal activities) and they didn't have any VIP points! She also confirmed they have no supplier relationship with this seller.

In the end, the woman said she was banning that credit card from use on the site, as well as the seller's account, the email addresses and his address and name posted on his account from ever using Lego's website. Lego Customer service is amazing by the way if you have ever spoken with them. I told her I was going to contact the seller and Ebay about it and then I would use the pre-paid return label to ship it back to Lego. I sent the seller an email indicating all of the above and that I was reporting them. I also told them I had reported them and all of their other listings to Ebay as well. I asked that they refund my item and would then ship the item back to Lego.

About 5 minutes later my phone buzzed indicating I had received an email. I looked at it and the seller had closed the case by refunding my money – no message obviously. Shortly after the seller took down all of their listings. They were incorrect anyway as the seller had indicated that they had 100% feedback... which wasn't the case after I added a message to make it known what they were doing.

I wanted to offer up this story that even if you do find yourself on the bad end of something like this you still have a lot of options:

• Send the seller a message asking a few simple questions to try and find out why it was shipped directly from a company. If the packing slip shows they paid way more than you did, politely ask them why they re-sold it for so cheap. Most will send you something back and just indicate they bought it with VIP points, or something of that nature which you can use to verify their story later.
• Use the order reference number and call the place that they purchased it from and just explain the situation to them. The few times I have had to deal with this I have seen that most companies know this goes on and understands it. Honestly the only one that hasn't been any help at all is Walmart. Ask them for the most information that they can give you. One of the best pieces to get is the last 4 digits of the credit card. You can indicate to the person you want to make sure they didn't steal one of your cards. They are allowed to give you this. Once you have it, you can go back and ask that the seller send you a picture of the card just showing the last four digits and the name as well as their driver's license with the same name. Most of the time the seller will just refund it as they know they are caught. If they send you the information, then they may be legit.
• Open up a case with Ebay indicating you did not want an item that was drop-shipped. The message will go to the seller, but in my experience most of the time if you keep with it they will relent and refund you so you can return the item. These people don't want to get caught up in the case structure as they are looking for quick money and not looking to deal with Ebay.
• Contact Ebay after you have contacted the seller and make sure they understand why you want your money back. Tell them the information you have so they can investigate accordingly. Chances are, Ebay buyer protection will refund your money and deal with the seller themselves. Ebay is all about protecting the buyer so they will back you up.

Just wanted to reach out and offer a personal experience for anyone that finds themselves in a bad situation. Don't just keep the item because you feel like it is too late. You don't want to deal with the back-end of the issue. Like I stated, none of these sellers are looking to get into a big argument with you or Ebay. Chances are, you can get the transaction canceled with out too many issues.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

So I set out on Google to try to find something that did that very thing. My search was rewarded (don't we all love Google) with a website called Stuffalert.com! On this site you can set up Ebay searches and then it will periodically let you know throughout the day when it finds new items that match the search. It is also free to sign up!

When you access the site for the first time, you can quickly sign up by clicking the register button at the top of the page. Once you input an email and password and verify your account you are ready to set up your searches!

Once you have this set up, log into the website and then press the big “Search Now” button in the middle of the main web page. This will take you to a page titled “Create Ebay alert” where you can simply create a new alert. This keyword function is the same as the Ebay search function – you can use any of the Ebay syntax we have discussed in other articles in there. You can also select which Ebay site to use depending on your country.

A note about the search function: StuffAlert is a really cool website, but it is not amazingly sophisticated either. Because of the way they search Ebay, they want you to keep the the search under a limit of 100 items initially – This is so they aren't sending you email every 5 seconds. The problem with this is they only have the ability to limit the search in a few ways: using the search syntax, selecting and narrowing down the category, and selecting Buy it Now or Auction (if you leave it off it is both). This may mean you need to split up some of the searches you have on Ebay. For example, I halve my UCS SW set search so that I am only searching for half the sets.

Once you have the search set up, click the “find” button and it will search. If your search returns more than 100 items, it will ask that you limit your search better. When you have gotten your search under 100 items, it will show you the items it found so you can make sure you are finding the correct items. Once you are done here press “next”.

On the next page, you can name your search and let the site know how frequently you want to be contacted. I have this always set to “standard”. I believe in this they check several times a day and email you.

Once done here, press “Finish”. This will bring you to your “Alerts Page”. Here you can manage your alerts.

One really nice function to this is the “pause” buttons. You can pause a search without deleting it if you want to stop seeing the emails while your bank account recovers for awhile . Another really great part about the website are the emails it sends. Instead of having to click to see items, it shows you the listings right in the email! Just simply open the email and then you are browsing the new listings. If you see one you like, you can click on immediately. I receive emails on my phone and it alerts me when I receive a new one. Even if I am out, I can quickly browse some new Ebay items and then take care of any good purchases I need to.

So there you have it! Give it a try and let me know how you like it. Make sure to report any good deals you get back to us!

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

First, I want to reinforce to each and every Lego investing hobbyist like me that doing this as a hobby is okay: you don't need to buy 75 Epic Dragon battles to validate your BP membership, and no one will revoke your investor badge if you don't buy 60 Haunted Houses. In fact, I find approaching Lego investing as a hobby can be liberating. Here are some of the true benefits to hobby investing:

• No pressure = more freedom: Do you like SpongeBob sets and think they'll be phenomenal performers even though the forum thinks you're crazy? Then buy one or two, or better yet, craft an approach to getting it at a great discount and then pounce when you find it. Because the stakes are smaller, and your children will still eat if no one buys that Galaxy Squad set on your shelf, you can feel free to pick and choose whatever you want.
• More freedom = more savings: The freedom to buy what you want also allows you to approach deals strategically. Even though clearance pricing comes across the forum daily, hobbyists aren't forced to find stock to flip, so there is less of a chance of getting stuck with 5 Atlantis sets bought only because it was on sale for 40% off.
• Smaller inventory = lower pressure: Investing in Lego as a hobby allows me to set and change my strategy on a whim. If I don't like the way the B-Wing looks next to the Friends box, I can sell it at any time (likely at a small loss if it's not EOL) and buy something else. I'm not shackled to ROI like those that do this for a living are. This also helps me maintain good marital relations - my wife needs room to store the Christmas decorations too!
• Hobby investing = more Lego: When I sell a set at a profit, I plow that money into more Lego. That helps my MOCs, my relationship with my son and daughter who love to help Daddy, and yes, even my sanity. That said, even if my sets don't sell, I can choose to add my sets to my collection (although this gambit would destroy my portfolio returns) - it's always a win-win!

Lego Hobbying will not get you a visit from these guys...

So, according to the list above, who wouldn't want to do this as a hobby? Well, there are some downsides to Lego investing as a hobby:

• Hobby = discipline: Hobbies, while they can become all-encompassing, exist to provide a respite from everyday humdrum of work and life, not to dominate it. The well-rounded hobbyist will prioritize work, a partner, kids, family, and everything else that makes life worth living, and lean on the hobby after all other priorities are addresses. As a result, the people that are successful in keeping Lego a hobby will, in fact, have to work around at least one finite resource: time. They can't monitor the forums 24-7 looking for the next $130 Haunted House or $120 Arkham Asylum. Most will have a limited budget as well. The hobbyist will always be balancing time and money more than those who rely on Lego investing as an income.
• Discipline = less freedom: While the hobbyist can take chances that other, more profit-driven investors can't, the limited resources of time and money tamp down the number of chances the hobbyist can take.
• Discipine = less rush: Much like hitting on the right number at the roulette wheel or hitting the point at the craps table, purchasing a Lego set at a great discount can provide a rush of excitement. Even better, purchasing 20 Millennium Falcons for $85 a piece can bring you a huge rush; in the mind of the buyer, they've already made the score and money is in the bank. For hobby investors, the need to be disciplined can really depress the thrill of the deal: hobbyists will typically purchase fewer sets, and not have the time to dedicate to finding those insane 'Imperial Shuttle for $150' deals. I find myself longingly reading the "What Lego Set Did You Buy Today" thread, imagining all the awesome deals that weren't available to me.

To me, Lego investing as a hobby is more about the enjoyment derived from research, planning and execution rather than the thrill of the deal hunt. Don't get me wrong - I love seeing Potter Castle on sale for $85. But to me, I enjoy synthesizing a vast amount of research and sifting through the noise to craft an ideal portfolio. I also enjoy writing, and found extending my Lego hobby in a new direction very fulfilling. Remember, you don't have to spend money to enjoy a hobby. Participation on Brickpicker.com is proof of that. As a wise, old rocker once said, "life's a journey, not a destination." To me, Brickpicking's a journey, not a destination, and I will continue to enjoy it as such. I hope my fellow hobbyists do too.