1. Forum Topics
Once you go the the link above, you will come to the main BrickPicker Forums page. On this page are --- main categories of topics, and several other sub-categories. The first is the BrickPicker.com General Board. This category includes more general information, not so related to LEGO investing, but still important. If you intend on participating in the forums, I recommend you introduce yourself, but we’ll get around to doing this a little later.

The second category is the ***Members Only Forum***. In this area, you will learn about the opinions of other LEGO investors on set performances, as well as the ever important Special Deals section. Non-Members cannot view this section, but it is 100% free to view it!

Right below the ***Members Only Forum***, we come to the Investing & Collecting Forum. In this area, you will find topics discussing things more specific to themes and particular sets, as well as a general investing and collecting forum. Not every single theme is listed there, but the main ones are. If you have any questions on other sets, it is recommended to go to either the general investing and collecting forum or to the Buying and Selling forum. In this forum, you will find topics related to buying and selling, as well as popular destinations of buying LEGO’s, including eBay, Amazon, LEGO S@H, Toys R Us, Target Store/Online, and Walmart.

One of the sub-categories of the Buying and Selling forum is The Deal or No Deal Forum. In this category, you will be able to inquire about a specific set, it’s investment potential, and so on. This is a recommended place to start out on LEGO investing. If you choose to start a thread in this category, your title should follow the following format: Set Number - Set Name. If your question includes more than one set, put a “/” between each new set name and number.

2. Searching the Forums
Before asking a question and starting a new thread, it is smartest to first search through past threads first. You can go to the upper right corner’s search bar, put in your set number, name, or key word, and then select “Forums”. Often, there will be a few pages of threads including that set number, but you should browse through to find if any might answer your question. Not only does this keep the forums clean, it gives you a more immediate answer to your inquiry, and quite frankly, keeps other members from getting annoyed at you.

3. Starting a Topic
If you have searched the forums for any similar topics, and haven’t found one, you can now start a Forums Topic! First, go to the main Forums page, then select the category that you think best fits your inquiry or topic. Click on that topic, then click on the box that reads “Start a New Topic” that is located on right side, above the list of topics already made. Now, pick a topic title. Remember, that if your topic is in The Deal or No Deal Forum, then it must follow the Set Number - Set Name format. After you type something in, a box of 5 topics will be listed. This is your last chance to turn back. If nothing really meets your question, then move on to the next step. Next you can pick a few topic tags, though this is not mandatory. After you have typed in your title, a box of By choosing tags, it’s easier to find the topic later on.
Finally, you can type in your official inquiry. Make this section the place where you get very specific, on what your question is, and what information you are looking for. Questions like “What sets do I buy?” are in no way specific or direct. A better way to phrase this would be “Hi, I am new to LEGO investing, and came across a 7965 Millennium Falcon for $90 at my local Walmart. How does everyone think that this set will do, and how long should I hold it?” Often, there are answers to these questions buried in the forums, and difficult to find. Don’t get discouraged by members who say “Read the forums”, since you already have. Instead, wait a little while for other members to give their input. If there is really a long, extensive thread about it, then go ahead and take a look there.

4. Responding to Posts
Of course you can’t always ask questions! Sooner or later, you will come across a member who doesn’t know as much as you, and need guidance. They will take your question much more seriously and thoughtfully if you respond politely, and don’t insult their intelligence. If you disagree with what they are saying, don’t berate them on how they are a noob, or dim, even if they are. Ever hear the saying “Let’s agree to disagree”?

When a thread gets really filled up, it is easier to respond to someone by using a quote. Go to their response, and select MultiQuote. Then if that is the only person who is being quoted, click the small pop-up box that reads “Reply to 1 quoted post(s)”. If you no longer wish to quote, click “Clear”. If you are answering or responding to more than one comment, then you can click MultiQuote for every response that is being responded to.

While participating in the BrickPicker Forums, grammar is important. Not only are you taken more seriously, you look more professional. Correct grammar is also helpful to the eyes, and makes it easier for others to read what you are writing. If you have a streak of bad grammar, a member is sure to give you an embarrassing rant on it, which may not be the most exciting experience!

Finally, forum etiquette. Here’s a great response by a member named Emes. Though he disagreed with what a different user said, he recognized his different views, and then stated his case in a very polite and helpful fashion:

I do see your logic, I just don't agree, despite what LEGO says, that their primary market is children. In the 70's and 80's yes, today, no. Look at how many of the currently produced items LEGO sells, and how many are not really solely targeted towards children. When I go into a LEGO store I see tons of things that my 5 year old couldn't build on his own. My child has no idea what Minecraft is. I guess part of it is what we define as a "child".

I hope you enjoyed this guide to the BrickPicke Forums! Stay tuned for the Guide to the BrickPicker Price Guide!

Looking Up Sets
On nearly ever page on BrickPicker is a search bar in the upper left corner. In this search bar reads “Enter LEGO Set Number...”. You do not have to enter the set number, and you can enter in a key word such as “truck” or “plane”. After you have typed more than 2 characters, a list of sets automatically shows up with all the sets including your keyword(s). You can select the set of your choice to be led directly to the page specific to your set. If you do not select a set, you will be led to a list that includes all sets including the keyword, whether it be a series of numbers or letters, or a combination of both.

This list includes basic information of the set. The title follows the following format: set number - varient number: set name. Usually, there will be a picture of the set directly below the name. If not, a yellow brick is shown that reads “Image Not Available”. Along with this is a small data collection including the number of pieces, number of minifigures, retail price, and the year the set was released [see picture below]. Finally, on the right side of this information box is a small graph that shows the rough changes in the set over the last 6 months.

Set Information Page
Once you have clicked on the set name that you wish to see, a page similar to the one below appears. On this page is data from 4 different eBay Marketplaces: eBay USA, eBay UK, eBay Australia, and eBay EU. Each that is shown is converted into the currency of your choice which can be changed in the upper right corner.

The first 5 columns of the table are fairly self-explanatory with the values of the set in new and used form, along with the change in the last month. If there is no change, a “-” is shown. Finally CAGR comes up. CAGR stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate, and is “a formula that is applied to an investment(in our case, a LEGO set) to help determine the investment’s annual smoothed return. The final percentage that you get...shows the positive or negative growth of your investment over a specified period of time”*.

Finally, we come to the Price Per Brick category. In this section, you will see the average price for a set at it’s current used and new price (from eBay), as well as it’s retail price. This information is helpful for resellers who “part out” sets, or use the set to create MOC’s.

Next comes the photo gallery that has a variety of pictures of the set, though the number of pictures varies from set to set. Right below this is a datachart that we saw in the list of sets right before coming to this page. It also includes the retail prices for the set for the US, UK, Australia, and EU. Next to this chart that looks similar to the one below:

Rebrickable is a website includes a database of sets similar to Brickset or BrickPicker, but also includes a very helpful tool. “Rebrickable will show you which LEGO sets you can build, by reusing the sets and loose parts you already own...Unless you have a LOT of sets, you will usually be missing a few pieces. In these cases, Rebrickable will show you exactly what you are missing and even provide suggested sets that you could buy which will get you those pieces.”^ Rebrickable has the list of parts included in the set, as well as a list of vendors that are selling the pieces needed to complete the set, and how much of the set they have in stock.

Bricker is the second website listed. Similar to BrickPicker, Brickset, and Rebrickable, it includes a large database filled with most, if not all, LEGO sets. In addition to this, they have a large quantity of reviews of different sets, taken from other LEGO websites, as well as articles, and quicklinks to other LEGO forums. Bricker can be converted into a database for Mega Bloks, making its brick database one of the largest around.

A link to Instructions is the third link. The instructions are found on the BrickPicker website, and are in a PDF version. Instructions aren’t always available, but for most sets, they are there.

The final section is called Brickfolio Inventory. In this section, if you are signed in, and have the set in your Brickfolio, then the number of copies of the set new and used is shown rather than N/A. N/A is only shown when the set is not in your Brickfolio.

In the Current Offers section is a list of all the stores, that BrickPicker has authorized , that is selling your set. Often, recently retired sets will still be shown to be sold at the LEGO Shop, even when this isn’t the case.

Next are two graphs. One is titled “Monthly Listings (Sold Items - your country of choice)”. For me, I have chosen the US eBay marketplace, so it says “Monthly Listings (Sold Items - USA)”. In yellow is the quantity of used sets sold, and in red new. You can hover your mouse over each white dot to see the month that the value is from, and the quantity sold. The graph next to it is very similar. It has the average “Monthly Listings Value (Sold Items - your country of choice)”. In the same way, the data tracks the average price the set was sold at. This data is updated every month, but it takes significantly longer now, because 4x the amount of data must be uploaded to the database.

The next few sections are self-explanatory, with the change over time, as well as the change above or below retail price. Recent Sold Listings shows the region the set was sold, the date, the price, and the condition of the set. The Averages tab shows the median, mean, minimum price, maximum price, and mode of the sold listings. Finally, the Live Completed Listings section shows the what the specific set has sold for most recently.

In the Reviews section, all the reviews for that particular set are listed, as well as the overall score. You can browse through reviews by different members, as well as review the set yourself, by clicking on the “Review this Set” link below the overall score.

Lastly come the list of Active Listings, sorted by price. You can change this to 20 different eBay Marketplaces.

Tips and Tricks You can view a whole theme by finding one set from a theme, then go to “Select a Theme” and click the theme, in this case Star Wars.

You arrive at a seemingly similar page. The only difference is at the top, right below the “Search Price Guide” heading.

Now it reads “Star Wars” next to “Price Guide”. Finally, click on “Star Wars” and you will be led directly to a page listing all the sets, sorted by date. You can also do this for other themes, as well as sub-themes [see below.]

Thanks for reading, and I hope this helps you figure out the BrickPicker Price Guide!

*Quote from Ed Mack’s article called CAGR: Compound Annual Growith Rate and LEGO.
http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/4/entry-15-cagr-compound-annual-growth-rate-and-lego/

^Quote from Rebrickable’s About page. http://rebrickable.com/about

​

Unfortunately, the set does not come with any minifigures. The set was released in late 2010/early 2011. The set was retired in late 2012. This means the set was available on the retail market for about a year. Although the set was on the market for only about a years some stores still had the set for sale due to higher prices.

Currently, the set has a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.71%, which is really good for two years. The CAGR is for the Technic theme is 9.43%. The set has a better CAGR than the theme by 9.28%. The set has a CAGR that is almost double its theme CAGR. Also the set has a better CAGR than the average CAGR for all the themes. The average CAGR is 11.36%. This means the set has a better CAGR by 7.35%. Let's look at a simple chart showing the monthly sold listings for the set new.

• June 2012: 1
• July 2012: 1
• August 2012: 7
• September 2012: 15
• October 2012: 9
• November 2012: 18
• December 2012: 42
• January 2013: 9
• February 2013: 5
• March 2013: 9
• April 2013: 14
• May 2013: 1

According to the chart, there were 131 sets sold in the past year. This means there were about eleven (11) new sets sold per month on eBay. All this shows that there is an interest in the set, which means the set is a potential invest winner. Now, there will be a greater interest in the set because the set was recently retired. Now people will probably pay more to get the set, thus increasing the value of the set. Now, let's look at the sales trend for the set in the past year.

• June 2012: $33.61 USD
• July 2012: $32.47 USD
• August 2012: $35.00 USD
• September 2012: $35.72 USD
• October 2012: $35.48 USD
• November 2012: $38.33 USD
• December 2012: $39.12 USD
• January 2013: $43.96 USD
• February 2013: $45.53 USD
• March 2013: $50.33 USD
• April 2013: $57.61 USD
• May 2013: $56.35 USD

This chart is very different from the other charts I have done. This chart includes the values of the set before and after the set was retired. According to my sources, which is brickset.com, the set was retired on October 30, 2012. Although the set was retired in late October, there still may have some sets sitting on some store shelves waiting to be sold, so I think that all the sets would be off the primary market by January 2013. Now, I will analyze both parts of the chart starting with before the set was retired.

Before the set was retired, the set had a value below the retail price. Over the course of seven (7) months, the set had increased in value by $5.51 USD, which is about seventy-nine cents ($0.79 USD) a month. During those seven months the set was increasing in value for most of the time except for two months, which is July and October.

After the set was retired, the set had rose above the retail price. Over the course of five months, the set had risen $12.39 USD, which is about $2.48 USD per month. During the past five months, the set has increased every month except for May 2013, when the set dropped $1.26 USD, or 2.19%.

During the whole year, the set has gained $22.74 USD in value, which is about $1.90 USD a month. Hopefully, the set continues with this amazing growth in the future.

Another aspect I look at is the Return On Investment (ROI). The ROI for this set is about 41% after two years. That is not bad considering that the set was recently retired.

My recommendation is to buy this set. The set was recently retired and it is showing good signs of positive growth and investment potential. The set has a good CAGR of 18.71% and the set has been increasing in value a lot in the past five months. Overall, I think that this set has some great investing potential.

Thanks for reading!

I will be re-quoting myself for the new members!

NOTE: The predictions price range is US-EU price range since our initials started higher and import taxes etc.
NOTE: All my predictions are for 1-1,5 years AFTER the set officially goes EOL.

9469-1: Gandalf Arrives RETIRED

I believe it will stop at double retail within 1 year after EOL, but will probably not climb much more, It is an iconic set of introducing Gandalf in the movies but that is about it.

Predictions: Stopping at about 20-25$

9470-1: Shelob Attacks

I think this is worth getting, it is 99.9% the only Shelob we will ever see, it is currently exclusive Sam, which we are likely to see if 3rd line of sets come out. If you can get it below retail (25% off) then I think this might do very well in MISB condition.

Predictions: Stopping at about 45-55$

9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army

I read that due to restrains from the contract LEGO/TLG cannot make battle packs (like SW) for LOTR, which makes this just a great, and probably the ONLY chance for Uruk-hai battle pack, If Eomer is not re-released (Pelennor etc) then this Battle Pack might just increase nicely.

Predictions: stopping at about 65-80$$

9472-1: Attack On Weathertop RETIRED

Questions are: Only time we see Nazgul? I doubt it, Merry? possible (but there is still pelennor) I think this set might actually do rather bad. It might just be cheapest set to get 7 Nazgul but that will be it. i expect it to not increase much over the next year (after EOL) so unless you got heavy discount (30%+) I think this will do poor, I skipped it)

Predictions: stopping around 70-90$

9473-1: The Mines of Moria

I think this is the sleeper of the line. With unique figures (Boromir and Cave troll likely to NOT be repeated) currently also Legolas, Pipping and Moria Orcs, this set just have it all, except that it is purely a play set (looks worse on display than lets say helm's Deep) I think this will easily double, i expect it to go 2,5x retail aswell within 2 years.

Predictions: Stopping at about 140-180$

9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep

Every says this is a winner, and i cannot object with much theory, but I am just afraid everyone got it and it will take year(s) for price to grow(unlike Mines) I guess this has the potential on 3x retail IF LOTR is re-released in 3D if Hobbit makes great children appeal and IF Theoden will not be re-released much more.

Predictions: 240-300$ EXCLUSIVE SET:

9476-1: The Orc Forge RETIRED

I think it will do well, especially considering we get Orthanc released. With unique white hand armor printing and Lurtz (If it does not come in Orthanc then it will likely never come, doubt about Amon hen) this set is a potential winner, People who buy Orhanc would want this set (or even 2-3) for their display.

Predictions: 80-120$

now lets lurk over these remaining unretired sets:

9470-1: Shelob Attacks -30.87%

The set is still dropping in value and is not yet retired. My old words still stand. 25% below US retail is the price to chase... If you can get it on that entry price there is no fear of losing money for now. It will be to be held for longer than 2 years after retirement to reach my predicted value of 45-55$. This set offers a good brick built spider that can also pass for generic spider to MOC lovers. Sam is still exclusive (allthough I am 99% sure he will be re-released in wave 3. Gollum is somewhat exclusive with face expression. Frodo is not exclusive at all.

Buy at: 25% below US retail or lower
Sell at: 45$ ***

9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army -22.94%

The license restrictions are still alive (and they will be until expiration of license) so there are no words, even hints of any Battle packs (similar to SW) to be released. Most we can expect are these type of B-packs. Eomer is exclusive to the set, everyone likes light gray bricks (sand green is also useful) Its the only set with 4 Uruk-hais (I always exclude Berseker from Uruk-hai armies since they were more individually presented ) and its the cheapest army builder in LOTR universe in LEGO.

If I were you I would be buying these also on retail! I expect them to grow to 80$ easily, especially if Eomer is staying exclusive!

Buy at: Full retail or less
Sell at: 70$ ***

''This set is a gem of LOTR line for army builders!''

9473-1: The Mines of Moria -36.14%

This is a playset, and as such not really loved among the AFOLs. There are currently 3 exclusive figures in the set. Pippin, Boromir and Cave Troll. I personally expect Pippin to be re-released in wave 3, but the other 2 might remain exclusive. This set was apparently the slowest seller and many shops still have them. I always considered this set to be the sleeper. I still think it might be, but only with buying the set on 30% discount or more. It was heavily discounted through big retailers and online shops like Amazon. The build consists mainly of dark gray and has kinda ''lots'' of stickers which is a downer for me. Its still one of my favorite LOTR sets mainly because I always liked Boromir while reading books and watching movies.

I would not buy this set for less than 30% discount. You will likely have to hold it longer than 2 years to reach decent profits. Cannot see this set surpassing 150$ ''milestone''

Buy at: 30% below US retail or lower
Sell at: 125$ ***

9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep -19.02%

The flagship set of wave 1 of LOTR. And what a magnificent build and display it was/is This s0$ ''milestone''et is truly awesome. It got high ratings, was sold out in most shops, but still available online. Its expected to retire before or shortly after Christmas 2013. It currently has 3 exclusive figures and 2 are highly likely to stay exclusive (Haldir and Berseker). It was relatively well discounted and a really hot seller.

This set will likely make profits (all-though longer to achieve) even if bought on retail. but any discount is even better. I expect this set to reach 200$ relatively easily within 2 years of EOL. And I predict a 300$ cap on ''all-time'' investing cycle.

Buy at: any discount!
Sell at: 220$ ***

''Gems above can turn into stinky fishes when you see this even bigger gem''

NOTE: ''Sell at'' suggestions are my own as an investor who took time to carefully observe LOTR sets and should only be followed by your own choice. I take no responsibility if sets actually do not raise to such values or if they raise even higher and you felt like you lost money for ''listening'' to my advice/suggestion.

1.00 U.S. dollar = 0.749625187 Euros (€)

If we just look a couple of late price comparison:

9474-1: The Battle of Helm's Deep

US price: 129.99 $
EU price: 139.99 € (186.794 $)

79108-1: Stagecoach Escape

US price: 29.99 $
EU price: 39.99 € (53.3602 $)

Now the EU usual tax value is around 20% (+/- a few percent points) depending on country. There is no good reason for pricing in examples above. While Helm's Deep look almost reasonable, the Lone ranger (one of the best sets of the theme) is at 100 % and more increase for Europe retail with only 20 % extra tax.

TLG obviously dislikes Europe(World) purchasing their products considering the mark-up which is rather extreme. What is more worrying is the fact that TLG is willing to do nothing to bring it more up to par of USA pricing and rather gives a half-baked answers regarding the problematic raised by us common buyers.

As a sign of protect I have stopped purchasing any LEGO from European shops (excluding Amazon occasionally) unless the set is at 33% + discounted. And even then that is a rather low satisfaction considering that at 33% off EU retail that usually means US retail.

I encourage all Europeans to actively push TLG with weekly questions concerning the pricing so that we might, some day (or maybe our kids) have a fair price.
 

So if you don't know about Aqua Teen Hunger Force, you should pretty much quit whatever you are doing and watch all 9 seasons straight through. I'll wait...Done? It is a 11 minute Adult Swim original show about three fast food items who are supposed to be detectives, but quit because the money was bad. Along with them, they have a next door neighbor, Carl Brutananadilewski who is a lazy, creepy man who is pretty... woman crazy? The show itself generally has no plot and ends in one of the main character's or supporting character's deaths, which is never permanent between episodes. It is an amazing show for one-liners and is highly quotable for any fans. So, here goes my ATHF series!

The Aqua Teen's House

This would be one of the smaller sets as the Aqua Teen's house is one that is fairly small, and has been destroyed at least 30 or 40 times in the series. However, everyone loves buildings and this is definitely an iconic one if you watch this show because of all the different shenanigans that go on inside of it.

In my eyes, this would have a removable roof (since it has come off many times anyway) so that it could also be a bit of a play-set Inside, you would have the whole modular home with Meatwad's particularly dirty room, Flylock's room with his bed and computer, the kitchen and the living room with the chair and TV in as below (If you are wondering, Shake doesn't have a room – as he makes clear in the Episode titled “Dirtfoot”:

Of course it would have the signature “get out” written on the side of the house, the door would be shaped like Shake, and the garage would open up to a small Lego “Danger Cart:

This set would come with the following minifigures as well:

• Meatwad – he would look exactly like a ball of meat, probably just one piece
• Frylock – He would be a 3 pieces, the box for the fries and the fries themselves along with the jewel that attaches to his back. It would also be cool for him to have a VCR under the jewel (if you have seen the movie, you will get it)
• Master Shake – Shake would be the cup, the top and the straw along with his hands. He should also have some pistachio flavored ice-cream in him.

Can you imagine that minifigures of these guys wouldn't be fun?

Carl's House

Carl's house is a little bigger that the Aqua Teen's house, so it would be bigger modular with two floors. They would most likely have to make it open from the side or the back of the house. It would also come with a mini pool outside for all of the Aqua Teens to get into so Carl could come outside and tell them how he has been calling the police, but they just hang up now. The pool itself would have flames coming up the side of it so, as Carl once said, it will “like it's tearin' ass around the back yard”.

Inside the house, the downstairs would have Carl's giant TV and his Giant's memorabilia all over the place (Aqua Teen Hunger Force is set in New Jersey by the way). Upstairs, it would have Carl's room with a rock-star wig (Carl is into rock music) and a large tanning machine with it set to “Jamaican”.

This set would only come with one minifigure as unfortunately Carl lives alone. But it would be a pretty sweet minifigure:

They could also have a duplicate outfit for him that would include his red jeans that he wore to the '69 tour of Bryan Adams and Foreigner, along with the mystical foreigner belt that could turn his head into a connect 4 set (Just go watch “Revenge of the Mooninites”).

The Mooninites Ship

If you have ever watched ATHF, you know that the Mooninites play a pretty big role in the show. Though they are only in 7 episodes and the movie, they are the most recognizable characters past the Aqua Teens themselves and will make for some pretty sweet minifigures. The ship itself is pretty simple because in reality, the mooninites are only 2D.

The ship would therefor be a little on the thin side, but would have the recognizable Blue and Purple color scheme, and have the stands that could retract for the ship itself to fly. It would also have a cockpit for the mooninites to get in so they can send their... um farewells to Earth. Kids would like this set as well – who doesn't love spaceships?

The minifigures would be the two mooninites themselves. They would both come with small ray guns as well and would also be very thin giving the 2D effect. The two mooninites are Ignignokt on the left, and Err on the right.

2 Wicked

If you are not familiar with the show at all, Carl is pretty into style and being a Lady's man – except for dressing up and speaking politely. Either way, to go with his pretty sweet pool, he has a car that has been pretty spruced up that he calls “2 wicked”.

Everyone who loves Lego loves cars, so this being a souped up small sedan would be pretty cool. The engine coming out the top and gleam of the wheels. As well, there would be the purple racing stripe on the side and the “2 Wicked” painted on to make the car really look sweet.

It would come with the following minifigures:

• Carl
• Shake (as he is always trying to drive it and several times has had to drive Carl in it for some incapacitated reason or another).
• The Rabbot – he was in the very first episode ever and is a pretty awesome character, perfect for a minifigure. He famously jumped on Carl's car and smashed it to pieces (of course int he next episode it was perfectly intact again.)

The Last One

This is directly from a great episode of ATHF entitled “The Last One” (it was the final episode of season 2). As I had mentioned before, the Aqua Teens have encountered a lot of different villains – pretty much a different weird character in each episode – like the Rabbot I spoke of, the mooninites, etc.

In this episode, they all come together to try and figure out how they are going to defeat the Aqua Teens. Unfortunately, none of them are very smart so it just turns into a large bout of stupid ideas general idiocy.

Since this is a gathering of all the weird characters, it would be an awesome minifigure set. It would come with a floor and a stage, like in the picture above. It would also have the curtain and the speakers and podium for the mooninites to stand on. There would be the sign “welcome villains” at the top. The rest would be minifigures:

Ol drippy – A large piece of mold and penicillin that was spawned out of a large mess Shake made in the kitchen:

The two frat aliens – These are two fairly inebriated guys that are all about being friends and calling each other “Bro”. One of them has a dad that owns a dealership, so he feels pretty entitled.

Cybernetic Ghost of Christmas Past from the Future – he is a robot that was created in the future and has come back to the past to warn the Aqua Teens of things that happened in the past that will cause problems in the future. Unfortunately, all of his stories are long and drawn out, and actually never happened at all.

Happy time Harry – An extremely irritated man with only one hand that has a lot of bills and alimony to pay. He general is not very “happy time” because life has not been good to him.

5 Brownies – These are brownies that have mutated into flying monsters and generally just say “Click Click Click Click Click”

And the mooninites of course.

The Plutonians Ship

The plutonians are another set of characters that are involved with the Aqua Teens in several different episodes and in the movie. They are supposedly form Pluto and they have a very large intricate ship. Unfortunately, they are also extremely dense. They try to steal cable from the Aqua Teens in the first episode together and in the movie they are trying to steal a weight machine from the Aqua Teens called “the insanoflex” that should provide them with all the women of the earth eventually.

As you can see, the ship is pretty big and cool looking so I think it would make a good set. Along with it, the plutonians would make some really good minifigures:

Those are headbands they are wearing to keep sweat out of their eyes – Ogelthorpe on the left and Emory on the right – although Oglethorpe wears his around his neck to keep sweat off the rest of his body. Their spikes also emit soap in certain cases.

Minifigures would include:

• The plutonians
• The 3 Aqua Teens as they get brought up to this ship on several occasions.

So there you have it. The dream is done. Would anyone else like these sets? I am probably crazy... Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading!
 

After a while though, I saw people who were mentioning how they make money on Lego by using the quick flip. This would be where you purchase something, be it an exclusive, a pre-order item, an item not available everywhere, or something just on sale and then immediately (or fairly shortly after) try to sell it for more than you paid for it. It is not a tremendously complicated idea, though the mechanics can cause you some problems.

So I wanted to alert some people to a good way of utilizing the quick flip that everyone can do fairly easily. This is the “no box” quick flip. It is fairly simple and I have done it quite a bit using Ebay and their search functions.

Basically, we all know that without a box, a set is worth less – whether it is used or new. But by how much? Well, it depends on what people's definition of “new” and “used” are for the particular item. With a Lego set, because it has inner bags, most people consider a set still new if the Lego bags themselves are still sealed. This is definitely unique from most other things you buy. So a set could have no box at all – just be a pile of Lego bags – and still be considered new to most Lego fans.

Thinking about other toys you may have purchased, if you had a toy and the box was severally damaged or torn up, you would probably just throw it away if you didn't know what it was worth. This happens every day with people that buy Lego sets. They may decide to sell the new set later, and think that because it has no box – it is worth a lot less money.

However, this is not the case. Because Lego is so popular, a lot of people that open Lego sets don't necessarily even throw the box away in that situation. Others that part the set out to make money also keep the boxes. A lot of these people then decide to sell the boxes by themselves on websites like Ebay, and most of all, bricklink.com. Because these boxes are so readily available, if a set's bags are still sealed, it can be put into someone else's box and resold as New (not sealed). If you have read some of the articles and forum posts on this site about box condition, you will know that It matters little to the people buying the set.

So the idea becomes very simple – if you can find a set on Ebay that has sealed bags, but no box and is quite a bit less expensive than the sets current market price, you can make a lot of money. Basically, with a quick check to www.bricklink.com, you can find how much a box would cost you and total up your price right there to make a set brand new again.

Here are a couple of my personal examples:

• Right around the time the 9500 Sith Fury-CLass Interceptor came out, I found someone selling one without the box on Ebay for $50. I bought it, purchased a box for ~$5.00 after shipping and resold the set for $85 all within a few days.
• A few days ago, I found a tower Bridge 10214 on Ebay with no box for $169.99. I purchased it and have since purchased a box for $7.00 with shipping. I have not decided yet what I would like to do with it – but obviously do have some room to make money there.

As well, recently FCBarcelona – one of my fellow Blog writers that I look up to for my articles - purchased a 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer for $280 without the box. If he purchased a box, he could resell this set for over $1000!

So why would people sell a set without a box?

• The box was damaged when they purchased it or in storage and they want to get rid of it.
• Water damage to the box.
• To make the set easier to ship (This is a random one but it definitely happens to people who buy big sets, decide to sell them, and don't want to use a huge shipping box).
• Open it, discard the box, and then never build the set.

If people sell the set for way less without the box, this is just your gain! So how do you find these sets on Ebay?

Using the search function, you can set up some good searches that will help you easily find the boxless sets that you can quickly flip with a fresh box. If you are not familiar with Ebay's search function, I would suggest reading my blog on that here: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/28/entry-269-ive-been-searching-for-a-set-like-you-ebay-searching-tips-and-strategies/

A few notes before I give you a couple of searching examples from this: I always only search for Buy It Now items. You can do auction if you would like, and you can sometimes score good deals this way, but most of the time these sets go for more because people like us know what they are worth and are bidding against you. Also, don't only search for new sets. Some people consider these sets used if the box is gone. If so, they will list the condition as “used”. If you filter these out, you are going to filter out the best deals.

Here are some search examples I use:

lego <theme or set> “no box” - For this one, insert the theme or set you would like to search for and the phrase “no box”.

lego set <theme> (“sealed bags”, “open”, “loose”) - This one searches for sets that have the phrase “sealed bags”, “open”, or “loose” in theme.

lego set “no box” (“sealed bags”, “open”, “loose”) - This one searches for sets that have the phrase “sealed bags”, “open”, or “loose” in theme, but only if they also have “no box”.

These are just a few examples, as you can get really creative with it. The more creative with the searches you get, the better sets you will find (those listings that seem to get stuck out in the middle of nowhere).

Here are a couple of tips while searching for what to look for and be aware of:

• There is not really a general rule of what price to buy at to make you money – it depends on the set. For me, I usually take about 20% off the BrickPicker price and that's what my target is (assuming I may be able to get a little more depending on my listing). If you can sell local in a big Craigslist market, obviously this makes it easier.
• Make sure whatever you are buying has pictures of the set, or is low enough you are willing to take a chance. Also be careful you read through the whole listing. It does happen sometimes that you will receive a set that has had more damage than just whatever may have happened to the box.
• Always check the Bricklink price for the box. Some boxes are worth WAY more than others. Do not ever buy a set and then look at the price – or you will wonder why you just bought the Death Star 2 for $100 off when the box is $75.
• Check your local stores for boxes less and damaged box sets as well. A lot of places will severely discount these. Also, ask a manager if they can give you any more off. Most will give you some king of discount to just get the set out the door. You can make big bucks this way.
• Be careful of sets that say they have had water damage. These are mostly alright, but if the Legos were touched and it did get in the bags, it is a risk. Like anything, I usually have to see the right deal to jump on these.

That is my quick flip method for the day. Give it a try and report what you find!

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

The set has nine minifigures, which are Darth Vader, Grand Moff Tarkin, Imperial Officer, 2 Emperor Royal Guards, 2 Stormtroopers, and R2-Q5, and a MSE-6 droid. The set comes with some accessories for the minifigures. Darth Vader has a lightsaber. The Stormtroopers have blasters, and the Emperor Royal Guards have spears.

The set was released in 2006 and retired in 2008. The set may have been sold in store after the set retired due to inflated prices. I remember seeing this set in a store in 2009 for $129.99 USD. That is $30 USD above the retail price.

The set has a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.17%. That is above the CAGR for the Star Wars theme and the overall CAGR for all the Lego themes. The CAGR for the Star Wars theme is 9.27%. The set is 7.9% above the CAGR for the Star Wars theme. The average CAGR for all the Lego themes is 11.36%. This set is 5.81% above the average for all the Lego themes. Let's look at a simple chart showing the sold listings for each month for the new sets.

• June 2012: 11
• July 2012: 12
• August 2012: 14
• September 2012: 16
• October 2012: 15
• November 2012: 31
• December 2012: 53
• January 2013: 19
• February 2013: 13
• March 2013: 12
• April 2013: 19
• May 2013: 22

Over the last year, there were 273 new sets sold on eBay, which has an average of twenty (20) new sets per month. All the data shows that there are people who want this set. When there are people who want a particular set, they will pay a good deal of money to get it. All of this makes the set a potential investment winner. Here is another chart for the sales trend throughout last year.

• June 2012: $281.40 USD
• July 2012: $254.27 USD
• August 2012: $219.47 USD
• September 2012: $238.81 USD
• October 2012: $255.00 USD
• November 2012: $264.23 USD
• December 2012: $253.17 USD
• January 2013: $268.26 USD
• February 2013: $281.87 USD
• March 2013: $269.13 USD
• April 2013: $275.37 USD
• May 2013: $303.18 USD

According to the chart, the set has gained $21.78 USD in value over the past year. That is $1.82 USD every month. If you look closely, the set lost a lot of value last summer, but the recovery took almost a whole year. It took eight months before the set hit the June 2012 price. Then it lost value again. But, in the last month, the set has gained 10.10% in value, which is $27.81 USD. The set has gained more value in the past month, than in the past year. That is amazing. This is one of the reasons this set is a potential investment winner.

Now, the set is currently valued at $303.18 USD, which is 10.10% up from last month. The set has gained $203.19 in value from its retail price. This means the Return On Investment (ROI) for the set is 203%.

I would recommend to buy this set, but not at a high price. The set may go down in value like it did last summer, but I still recommend buying this set. The set has a good CAGR of 17.17% and a good ROI of 203%. Also, the set is on a upward trend in value. Overall, I think that this set is a great investment with many great investing factors.

Thanks for reading!
 

Now there are hundreds of thousands of great video games to choose from, so in this article I only wanted to look at one. This is probably the most recognizable video game character of all time and probably the most popular video game character of all time: Super Mario.

So there are tons of things that could be included in this theme and it was really hard to narrow it down. I had a lot of problems trying to find things that I thought would really work well as Lego sets, and trying to decide what would be the best iconic sets that could be made. This is what I came up with:

Yoshi's House

One of the most memorable non-Mario-Brothers character's in the Mario games was Yoshi, which was Mario's pet. He has been popular enough that several other video game lines have been based off him alone. A lot of us remember Yoshi's house from the Super Nintendo game, Super Mario World. Near the beginning of the game, you could stop off at Yoshi's house to get a Yoshi by jumping up an feeding the small younger Yoshis until one of them grew up (those are some serious apples). Everyone knew that once you had Yoshi, you were pretty much unstoppable.

This set would be a smaller 200-300 piece set that would include a large elongated green-leaved tree. There would be Lego apples hanging from it at different spots that were detachable in some measure. It would come with the following minifigures:

• Mario
• 1 big full sized Yoshi for that Mario could actually ride
• 3 smaller Yoshis that would sit on top of the tree. Their mouths would also open and close so that they could properly communicate that they were hungry

Who wouldn't love this set? It would appeal to Lego fans as a minifigure value set, and it would appeal to pretty much any video gamer that ever played the games. And what kids don't love Yoshi!?

Mario's Tunnel and Cave

I am going a little bit out of the box here - and someone who does have a creativity gene could try and name it. Everyone remembers the tunnels form the Super Mario game. You have just won a castle and jumped on the flag, and a tunnel opens up in front of you. “TinkoTinkoTinko”. And then Mario pops out from the bottom of the pipe and he is now in a dark cave with some different looking... cave turtles? You hear “duh duh, duh duh, duh duh”...“duh duh, duh duh, duh duh”. It is a pretty iconic part of the video game.

For this, I think I would look awesome as a diorama. The bottom of the cave would a full large, dark gray Lego floor. It would also have sides and a ceiling, they just wouldn't come out as far so that there is a ceiling, but room to play with the set. There would be some Lego rocks, hills, and some how they would find a way to suspend Lego blocks for Mario to jump on. There would also be the entry pipe coming down from the top, as well as another pipe or two on the bottom for those possible secret areas.

This would include these minifigures:

• Mario – a different design with a more cave-worthy outfit.
• 2 Turtles for Mario to jump on.
• 2 spike turtles – the guys that have very sharp spikes so that you can't jump on them.

Kids would have a great time re-creating the Mario game and making Mario defeat the evil turtles! Maybe they could even add something that would play music so you could here that great theme in the background.

Mario Kart Raceway

So, yes this is a little out of the original Mario line as Mario Kart came later, but it is a stable for any Mario gamer. Though there were other party PvP games, this game really cemented PvP and battling as a staple of any video gamer's fun.

This would be a little outside the Lego box, but it would be a Lego racing set. Like the Lego trains, this would include a Lego track for the cars to race on. The cars would be completely made of Lego, but would also take batteries so that they could move by themselves. The set would come with Lego remotes as well (that also take batteries) that allow anyone to race the cars around the track. The track would also have some nice Mushroom terrain to decorate with.

And what is Mario cart without some hazards right? So the cars would have Lego attachments (I know I am outlandish) that would include a few shells and bananas. These could be launched at any point in time to try to keep the other participant from winning the race. This set would include:

• One Mario Kart
• One Luigi Kart
• A Luigi minfig
• A Mario Minifig

Can you imagine how much fun you would have with this?

Princess Peaches Castle

My favorite Mario game of all time, and what I would call the most complete and memorable video game of all time, is Super Mario 64. Peach's Castle was in a ton of Mario games – evidently she just has a knack for getting into trouble I particularly liked the castle's look in this game. It really looks like someone took one of the nicer castles from the Castle theme and touched it up with a bit of Lego Friends. Everyone loves Castle sets so we all know this would be a big hit.

I think it would be great if it had the moat and the drawbridge from the game. It should also have a few trap doors, secret entrance ways as we know there were those times where Mario got himself locked out of the castle. The Castle would also open up on the front so that it could become a play set as well.

The minifigures would include:

• Mario
• Luigi just for good measure
• Princess Peach
• 2 Bombombs – I always really liked these guys and they were around a lot in Super Mario 64.
• A Goomba – Can you imagine how much fun people will have playing with something called a Goomba?
• A large Chain Chomp – you have to have a chain chomp

I am not ashamed to admit I would play with this set.

Bowser's Castle

Alright, so yes I know it is a little repetitive, but Lego has a pretty serious history and track-record of making impressive buildings. Can you imagine how amazing a Bowser's castle could be? Lego could really make it an intimidating and impressive set.

This one wouldn't open up, it would be more about a large display piece. It would have the Bowser Logo on several parts of it, along with spikes everywhere. The front of the Castle would be a large Bowser mouth opening to swallow whoever dare entered his realm. There would also be plenty of Lego fire protruding from the Castle.

Minifigures would include:

• Mario – Gotta have a redesign since he is in every set
• Luigi – Mario needs a backup
• 3 Koopa Troopas in Bowser garb
• Bowser himself – A gigantic Minfigure with flames coming from his mouth and spikes on his back. Needs to be as big as the rancor.

What do you all think? Did I pick the right stuff? Do you all think this theme would be winner?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods. Thanks for reading!

But there is another way on Amazon to get some pretty good deals, and if you are not utilizing it, you are making a big mistake. It’s called the Amazon Gold Box “quick pick” deals.

Amazon has a deals page that everyday updates with deals all throughout their product category. This page has Gold Box deals (special deals site wide), lightning deals (special deals that pop up for a limited time), and a “quick picks” section. This “quick picks” section is a set of deals that are specifically picked for you – they aren’t available to everyone! Basically, they take an already discounted item, and if they think you will like it, they place it in this section and add a special extra discounted coupon that you would not get if you just searched for the item yourself. Here is Amazon’s description from the website:

Quick Picks
Products selected every day especially for you, paired with limited-time coupons that offer additional savings.

You only have a Quick Picks section if you have an Amazon account and have purchased an Amazon item before. After making your first purchase, a few days later your Quick Picks section will appear. You can get to it by going to www.amazon.com, signing in, and then clicking on “Today’s Deals” over in the left hand corner. The corresponding page will have Gold Box site-wide sale items at the top. If you scroll down, near the bottom you will see your Quick Picks section. Here is a picture of what this looks like:

You can only purchase an item out of your quick picks section once per day. It can present up to 6 items, so you have to make sure you choose wisely! Amazon uses everything that you buy from them, everything that you rate and review, and any other things on their website you designate that you own, to understand your interests and know what deals to present to you. It isn’t perfect, but it is a great system for getting coupons on things you may want without having to do much at all!

So as a Lego collector/investor/builder, how do you manipulate your Amazon account so that you can ensure you will always be getting Lego sets – and especially the Lego sets you want? It’s actually fairly simple. As I stated before, everything you ever purchase from Amazon is in their system as an item you own. Because you own it, they assume you are interested in it. Using these items, they take similar items and assume you are interested in those as well. For example, if you purchase a Lego Death Star 10188, Amazon might assume that you would also like a Lego Star Destroyer 6211.

Unfortunately this works both ways. I purchase a lot of other items through Amazon that are for my House, or car. I purchased a Refrigerator filter through Amazon, and a few days later Amazon had me down as a filter junkie. I don’t want all of that stuff in my Gold Box when I could be saving money off great Lego sets.

So we have to tell Amazon specifically what we are currently looking for and what we are not interested in at all, even if we did at one time buy it. So here are a few ways to do that:

Amazon Checkout Cart

One of the ways Amazon selects what should be in your Quick Picks is through items you have placed in your cart at one time. If you actually place items in your cart that you want, even if you don't purchase them, Amazon remembers that you liked that item and makes recommendations based on it. So an easy way to manipulate this is to add a bunch of Lego sets you would like to your cart. Even if you don't buy them, it will help signal to Amazon that you would like them to start putting what you want in your Quick Picks.

Obviously, along with this, anything you actually purchase is used for recommendations as well as it has been in your cart. This can be a problem if, like we talked about before, you buy non-Lego stuff. There is a way to remedy this and it will be discussed below.

Amazon Wish-List

So if you have ever fooled around in your Amazon cart, you will have seen a little link at the bottom of each item in the cart that says “save for later”. If you press this button, that item is transferred to something called your “Amazon Wish-List”. This is a great feature, because if there are deals on your item, Amazon will alert you that something on your wish list has changed price. But along with this, Amazon takes a big peek at your wish-list to tell what you are looking for. The more Lego items you have on your wish-list, the better your chances of getting Lego items in your Quick Picks everyday. I generally add every Lego set from every one of the themes I am looking for so that Amazon will know that I like Lego, and that I like it from these certain themes (there are over 100 Star Wars Lego sets in my wish-list).

Amazon Recommendations Page and Item Reviews

This is the place that really makes a big difference. So, do you want to know what Amazon currently thinks you are a fan of without having to wait for your next set of Quick Picks? Go to www.amazon.com and then click at the top left where it says “<username>'s Amazon”. Now you will see a new page come up and in the middle a the top will be large lines of items in different departments that Amazon has picked for you. This is shown below:

These are currently all the departments and all the items Amazon thinks you like. See anything you don't want? Mine has dog and cat food! Who knows what I bought to make them think that.

Well, if you want to edit your items, click on the link under the section that says “see all recommendations in <department name>”. When you click this, you will get a page of items that Amazon thinks you are interested in.

For each item, you will notice under the name you can click whether you own it, or you are not interested. As well, to the right, you can rate an item as well. This is how you really narrow down the stuff that shows up in your Quick Pick's. Amazon is pretty bold and assumes you like all these items for some reason or another. So, any item you don't want, just click “not interested” until those are all gone. You can continue to do it until the section as gone as well! Once you have gotten rid of those, you can fully help narrow down Amazons recommendations for you.

On top of this, the reviews are really helpful as well. You want Amazon to know you really like Legos? Give a bunch of sets in your favorite themes 5 Stars! The “own it” button is there as well. You have to be careful with this though. The rumor is that if you press this button, Amazon is not likely to recommend that set to you. So you can manipulate this in your favor. If there is a theme you don't particularly love, but one set you want, tell Amazon that you own all of those sets and give them 5-stars. Make sure you leave out the one set you want. You have now effectively told Amazon “That is the only set I need to complete the collection”.

So even with all of this – you still are going to make purchases that are non-Lego (which is a sad thing) and these are going to influence Amazon until you remove all the items, right? Well, here is a trick. After you purchase, go back to your recommendations page and click on a section of recommendations like we discussed above. At the top you will see something that says “recommendations based on items you own”. The “items you own” will be a link. Click this, and Amazon will show everything you ever purchased. If you don't want something to be considered as part of your recommendations, just click the check box on the right that says “Don't use for recommendations”. Now you are protected from buying something for a pet, and looking at discounted cat food until the end of time!

Further Manipulation

This method is hit or miss, but can definitely work to a certain extent. So, say there is a particular set you want. First, remove everything but this from your wish-list. Then go to your recommendations and remove every set from it (or own them all if you want). Now highly rate the item. I have not tried this, but there have been several others that have used this method to get a certain set on discount.

Remember, if you have bought this item before, or told Amazon you own it, make sure you find it before hand and un-click the “own it” button. Otherwise, chances are Amazon won't put it in your Quick Picks.

Gold Box Quick Picks Deal Sharing Thread

One of our most valued members, FCBarcelona101 started a thread for sharing Gold Box deals. Basically, if you have sets in your gold box that are good deals and you don't want any of theme, you can post in this thread: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/4499-amazon-gold-box-deals-sharing-thread/page-3?hl=gold

Someone else may respond and if they want the deal, you can work out to let them purchase it using your account. This way, we continue to share great deals with each other.

So go get your Amazon Gold Box recommendations set up right now and make sure to come back and report your results. If you find or know of any other methods to manipulate your Gold Box deals, make sure you post them in the comments section.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

As illuminating as this aerial study can be for our understanding of the environment we live in, analysis of the Lego product landscape is equally illuminating for Lego investors. With almost the entire 2013 product line either on the market or in the release queue, now is the perfect time to step back and review the 2013 Lego product line in totality to see if we can find any trends or nuggets that may give us a more accurate picture of where Lego's designs have been, and more importantly, where they may be going. Finding trends among this year's sets may help us with current and future investment decisions, so let's jump right into the 2013 trends I've found noteworthy:

The Year of the Remake

In fashion, there's an old saying: "What's new is old, and what's old is new." The same holds true for Lego sets as remakes abound among this year's releases. It seems that 2013 has provided us with more remakes than usual. Of note are the following sets with their predecessor in parentheses:

10240 UCS Red Five X Wing Starfighter (7191 USC X-Wing Fighter)
10937 Arkham Asylum Breakout (7785 Arkham Asylum)
79107 Commache Camp (6746 Chief's Tepee)
79109 Colby City Showdown (6765 Gold City Junction)
79110 Silver Mine Shootout (6761 Bandit's Secret Hideout)
41999 Co-Creation Model 4x4 Crawler Exclusive
60012 Coast Guard 4x4 & Diving Boat (7726 Coast Guard Truck with Speedboat)
60013 Coast Guard Helicopter (7738 Coast Guard Helicopter & Life Raft)
60014 Coast Guard Patrol (7739 Coast Guard Patrol Boat and Tower)
60020 Cargo Truck (7733 Truck and Forklift)
60022 Cargo Terminal (7734 Cargo Plane)
Yet to be announced, but still rumored for 2013 release:
10241 Maersk Container Ship (10155 and 10152 Maersk Container Ship)
60031 City Corner (7641 City Corner)

Not included in this list are all the new Castle sets which are pretty much all rehashes of prior Castle sets. Including these five, there are a whopping eighteen sets in 2013's model line that are rehashed versions of older sets. That's a big number, and I wonder if we'll see this trend continue into 2014 and beyond. While this is pure speculation, this could be one of TLC's prongs of attack in their war on resellers as pushing remakes will devalue the previously released sets. For a comprehensive discussion of this phenomenon, see this article by BP member Grolim linked here.

New Themes

2013 brought us three new themes: the controversial Legends of Chima, and two new licensed themes: Disney's The Lone Ranger, and Nickelodeon's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot (thanks to BP member Mikeur86 for his Lone Ranger Evaluation Corner article). While the investability of these themes have been poked and prodded over the last 6-8 months, it's important to note that while The Lone Ranger and TMNT themes are likely "one and done" themes, Lego has invested heavily in Legends of Chima, so expect to see more Chima sets released in 2014. Expect to see the next wave of Chima released in January 2014.

In addition to the new themes, it appears we have two new collectible themes that may be flying under the radar. Lego has released a new set called 10250 Year of the Snake, an homage to the Chinese Zodiac calendar. This Asia-only release is a really neat set, and indicative of TLC's attempt to crack the East Asian toy market. While Lego has had a strong presence in the Japanese market for years, China's burgeoning population and market potential has caused Lego to build a new factory in China and step up their marketing efforts in this area of the world. Year of the Snake is proof of this. 2014 will likely see a Year of the Horse model as Lego continues its appeal to the Chinese toy and collectible markets.

2013 also saw the seasonal polybag market expand with new seasonal polybags at a higher $8 price point that depicts scenes typical of the seasons with appropriately garbed minifigures. These seasonal polybags and Year of the Snake subthemese appear to be aimed at collectors, so if they take off these first version sets could become valuable.

Redefining the Creator Theme

Lego fans have grown to love the Creator theme for its sets that include instructions for multiple builds, and its model-like sets depicting any number of animals, vehicles, houses, etc. However, this year Lego has introduced an extension to the Creator theme entitled Creator Expert. This appears to be the first subtheme to Creator, and includes four high profile, exclusive sets that kick-off this subtheme with a bang: 10232 Palace Cinema, 10233 Horizon Express, 10234 Sydney Opera House and 10235 Winter Village Market, as well as the Asian exclusive 10250 Year of the Snake. These new exclusives have also helped to expand the Creator theme, from 15 in 2012 to 21 in 2013. Expect this line to continue to grow as the Creator Expert subtheme gets future exclusive models added. I would guess that as sets like VW Camper and Sopwith Camel are retired, their replacements will be added to the Creator Expert subtheme. This additional branding can only help the appeal of these exclusives and lend some structure to the entire Lego product line.

The Year of the Boat

After the announcement of Friends Dolphin Cruiser earlier this year, I began to think there were an incredible number of boats slated for 2013 release. Now that the 2013s are all either on shelves or announced, I've found I was right. Here are 2013's boat offerings of significance:

41015 Friends Dolphin Cruiser
60005 City Fire Boat
10241 Maersk Container Ship (assumed late 2013 released)
60015 Coast Guard Plane
60014 Coast Guard Patrol
70006 Cragger's Command Ship
76000 Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze
76006 Iron Man Extremis Sea Port Battle
79008 Pirate Ship Ambush

This list doesn't include any of the smaller Coast Guard and City boats that were released this year as well as these smalls typically rotate through the product line periodically. In comparison, there were only three substantial boats released in 2012: 3817 Sponge Bob Square Pants Flying Dutchman, 9446 Ninjago Destiny's Bounty, and 9499 Star Wars Gungan Sub. After this boat explosion in 2013, I would guess that TLC will likely go back to 2012 levels for boats. For boat enthusiasts, 2013 will be the year to target for your Lego collection. For Lego investors, don't assume boats will be back with a vengance in 2014.

A new license?
http://ts2.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.5044981320320609&pid=15.1&w=169&h=126&p=0
This year, Brickset released the names of new Lego polybags that would be released throughout the year. Among them was one I found very curious: 40200 BMW. A quick look at Brickset's 40200 page shows little information about release dates and locations, but it does show a picture of the polybag itself: 

While the polybag model doesn't appear too exciting or cutting edge, the fact that BMW has agreed to a licensing deal (however small) may open future opportunities for large, more iconic BMW licensed vehicles in the future. With BMW's ownership of the Mini brand, this could open up any number of iconic Mini vehicles for TLC to recreate as models. Lego's BMW license has me hoping for some future BMW or Mini vehicle sets for the Creator Expert subtheme to pair with the VW Beetle and Camper.

While there are probably hundreds of smaller trends that have come out of 2013's set lineup, these appear to be the most significant. As we start our descent back to earth, don't forget that for every trend we may think we've found, a surprise from TLC could be waiting around the corner that nullifies today's appearance of a trend. Constant scrutiny of the market will provide us the information we need as investors to make properly informed decisions. As always, invest accordingly.

I wanted to point out a wonderful review of the 10188 Death Star submitted idunno101. Reviews like that can earn 200 or more Brickpoints very easily. The review was an nice mix of pictures, data and analysis. So keep this in mind when you want to earn some quick BrickPoints...
 

Is there any way to avoid this on Craigslist? We all know that selling locally is by far the best way to sell. As long as you don't have a store, you don't have to charge the person tax nor shipping at all so you can sell the item for a better price and make more money from it. And no fees! As well, you don't have to deal with keeping up with listings other than just answering email and meeting someone who wants to purchase your item.

So how do you effectively write a Craigslist Post so that you make sure you sell stuff as quickly as possible, get the best money for your item, and avoid the the people who seem to hang around Craigslist just to make it worse for others? Here are a couple of good rules to follow when creating one:

• Make a title that is quick and to the point. Tell them exactly what the item is and whatever important details you want them to know. Some people write their listings very vague, possibly thinking that more people will look at them. For example “Box of Legos”. Yes a lot of different people might look at this listing, but everyone that emails you or calls you is wasting your time unless they purchase it. It's not like Ebay where people bid themselves and someone takes care of all the transaction exchanges and processes behind the scenes. Instead, list exactly what you have in the listing. “Large box of Star Wars and Lord of the Rings Lego Sets – Includes <set numbers>”. This will keep away anyone who is not interested in the listing.

• List a price in the “price” field– not just inside, especially if you are just listing one item. It is very irritating to a buyer when they can't figure out what you are asking for something until they click inside the listing. Plus again you will keep away the people that are out at that price range in the first place.

• Put your location in the location field and put your exact location in the listing. Making people look at your listing or have to ask you just to find out where you are is a waste of everyone's time. If you are selling a Lego set for $10, people who live 30 miles away from you are not going to be interested.

• Add good pictures to your listing. This is an absolute must. If the item has condition issues, or certain details you want to show, or you want them to see the best parts of your bulk items, you need to have good pictures of it. Again, the more vague it is, the more people that are going to look and then ask you questions. You want only people who are interested, so don't hide anything about your item. If you do, you are going to be sorry when you meet up with them and then they don't want it.

• Add a description to the listing that is short, concise, describes every single detail of what you are selling, and lets the buyer know whether you are firm or willing to talk. Again, this comes back to eliminating the non-serious buyers. If you put in your listing that you are firm on $500, you will hopefully keep away all the people that are trolling around with $100 offering it on everything they can find worth 5 times that amount.

• Make sure you write your post in complete sentences and use correct capitalization and punctuation. Everyone here knows what I am talking about. “Yeah I got these Legos a while back and I want to get rid of them my kids are not wanting them anymore but I paid a good amount for them so I'll take like $100 bucks because I got a bad back now and I need the money to make sure I can take care of my car that broke down the other day thanks” (I made that up but you get the picture). This is important past just not looking immature. If a seller sees something like this, they are going to come to you thinking they are dealing with someone that lacks professionalism and could be taken. You want to portray that you are not playing games. The more serious and professional your posts are, the more serious and professional people you will get.

• Leave a preferred method of contact. I like email much better than phone. Make sure the buyer knows how to get to you and make sure you respond to anyone who answers you. These people could look at your listings in the future and if they recognize your listings and you never respond, they won't keep contacting you.

If you do these things, you should have about as positive an experience selling Legos on Craigslist as you can. You won't always be away from the crazies, but you avoid that 11.25% Fee-bay charges you.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

ROI = (Gain from Investment - Cost of investment)/ Cost of Investment

• Gain from Investment: How much money did you gain from your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings and then sold them for $250 each. My gain from this sale would be $500 USD.
• Cost of Investment: How much money did you spend on your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings. That is the cost of investment: $400 USD.

If you do not want to mix up all your numbers here is a simplified version of the equation. ROI = Profit / Cost of Investment

• Profit: How much money you made from a sale. From the above version, it is $100 USD. My sales totaled $500 USD, but my expenses were $400 USD, thus making my profit $100 USD.
• Cost of Investment: Same exact description as the one above.

Now, lets try this out.

Example A

Say that you bought one set for $9.99 USD. (This is a retail price) Then you wait three to four years before selling it. You sold it for $27.89 USD.

ROI = (27.89 - 9.99) / 9.99
ROI = 17.9 / 9.99
ROI = 1.79
ROI = 179%

To change the answer from a number to a percent, just multiply your final answer by 100. And remember that you must figure out your profit first before doing anything else.

Example B

Say that you bought a set on sale for $125.38 USD. You wait four years before selling it. You sell it for $479.67 USD.

ROI = (479.67 - 125.38) / 125.38
ROI = 354.29 / 125.38
ROI = 2.83
ROI = 283%

While the retail for the set is $129.99 USD. You sell it for $479.67 USD after waiting four years.

ROI = (479.67 - 129.99) / 129.99
ROI = 349.68 / 129.99
ROI = 2.69
ROI = 269%

The ROI of an investment can change depending on the purchase price. As you can see above, the ROI was greater when the set was purchase on sale. Although it was a mere $5 USD difference, the ROI difference was 14%. A higher ROI is always better.

The ROI is a very useful tool that helps determining how well your investment was. Now, go check all your investments and see how you did!

Thanks for reading!
 

But as we all wait for the third movie's line of sets and the obvious Eye of Souron we are all waiting for, what do we have out of the second line that could be a big time set for investors? I am going to go through all the sets and describe them as well as give my views on theme from an investment and Playbility/Building point.

The Wizard Battle 79005

From the Lego website:

Recreate The Wizard Battle at The Tower of Orthanc, as Gandalf the Grey takes on his mentor and old friend, Saruman, who has fallen under the influence of Sauron while gazing into his palantir. Saruman will stop at nothing to deliver the One Ring to his new master and serve him by helping to conquer Middle-earth. Avoid the spinning palantir’s spell, cast powerful staff magic and send Saruman flying from his throne! Stay away from Sauron’s mesmerizing gaze or risk being enslaved yourself! Includes 2 minifigures with staffs: Gandalf the Grey and Saruman.
• Includes 2 minifigures: GandalfTM the Grey and Saruman
• Features throne with flick function, spinning palantir with Eye of Sauron and cool yellow lamps
• Weapons include 2 staffs
• Push the throne flicker and send Saruman flying!
• Battle Saruman and stay away from his spinning palantir
• Avoid being mesmerized by the Eye of Sauron
• Measures over 7" (18cm) high, 4" (11cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep

My Analysis: Honestly, when I saw this set I was just a bit disappointed with it. I think this really came from the fact that I assumed that we would see the tower of Orthanic along with it. Now, don't get me wrong, I will discuss the Tower of Orthanic shortly and am still pretty satisfied with that set, but this one is a bit underwhelming to me for that reason. I would have rather them done a different scene for the small set and sort of include this with the Tower.

Past what I would have done (Obviously Lego is smarter than me), I don't really know investment-wise that this set has much to offer. Neither minifigure is exclusive although Sarumon is only in one other set at the moment being the Tower of Orthanic. Both minifigures are a little bit different than their counterparts in other sets so if someone really wants to collect everything, they will want this. Honestly to me, this is another 9469 Gandolf Arrives in that it's a decent little set, but nothing investors should look at.

I will say that the playability with this set should be off the chart though. You have the small little duel area along with the mystic ball showing the Eye of Souron which is pretty awesome looking. Think about all the kids that will buy this set and have these minifigures flying around pointing their wizard sticks at each other. Pretty cool. While I don't think it's a great investment set, I think it will sell really well while it's around because of the decent price per piece of $.11 and the play-ability value.

The Council of Elron 79006

From the Lego website:

Plan the downfall of Sauron at The Council of Elrond!
Build the majestic Elven city of Rivendell, home to Elrond and his beautiful warrior-princess daughter, Arwen. Call Gimli and Frodo Baggins to The Council of Elrond to plan the destruction of the One Ring and the defeat of Sauron. Place the Ring on the podium and recreate this classic scene from The Fellowship of the Ring! Send Gimli flying with the launch function when he tries to destroy the Ring with his axe. Beware the Eye of Sauron, as he draws closer to the Ring that will lead to the fall of Middle-earth! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo Baggins and Gimli.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo BagginsTM and GimliTM
• Features Rivendell setting with unique Elven wall arches, weapon rack, steps, tree, 3 chairs, a podium with minifigure launch function and the hidden Eye of Sauron
• Includes 4 weapons: golden Elven sword, bow, Sting and an axe
• Also includes the One Ring • Collect the autumn-color leaf elements
• Send GimliTM flying with the catapult function!
• Beware the evil Eye of Sauron!
• Recreate the majestic home of Elrond
• Rivendell setting measures over 5" (15cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep

My Analysis: This set is really an intriguing one. It is definitely one that can get lost in the other set's because of it's lack of a battle context. On the other hand, this set is one of the most iconic scenes of the movie and even more, has become legendary because of Boromir's “One can not simply” line which may even be more popular than the actual scene. This set also comes with Arwen, which is an exclusive figure to this set as well as Elrond, an exclusive variant of the figure.

However, I think some people will not like the fact that this scene was done without Boromir. He had one of the top lines of the movie. Now, you can say “many of the other council figures are here either”, but Boromir is who I think of when I think of this scene. The only way to get him is to have Mines of Moria which will be gone shortly and is a much more expensive set. I think that will hurt the sale of this set. Maybe in the future it will not matter when they are both retired, but I just really think this set could have been better. Anyone who has seen the Lego concept ideas with the whole Elf Village knows this set could have had quite a bit more.

Playability wise, I think its a decent set if you have a bunch of the other sets and can fill out the minfigures. I'm afraid though at $.12 a piece there is not enough here for people to really jump on it. My thoughts would be there are better sets in the line to invest money into.

The Battle at the Black Gate 79007

From the Lego website:

Defeat the forces of Sauron in a great Battle at the Black Gate!
Fly the Great Eagle high above the Black Gate of Mordor where Aragorn and Gandalf the White must distract the Eye of Sauron. Use them to stage a scene while Frodo Baggins and his friend Sam throw the One Ring into the fiery depths of Mount Doom and destroy it forever. To reach the Ring’s final destination, you must defeat the Mouth of Sauron and the Mordor Orcs positioned high in the spiked gate walls. Then breach the gate and lead the attack on the enemy! Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: Aragorn, Gandalf the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 Mordor Orcs
• Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: AragornTM, GandalfTM the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 MordorTM Orcs
• Black Gate features cool spiked detailing, opening and locking doors, secret entrance and a catapult
• Also includes a poseable horse
• Includes 5 weapons: staff, 3 swords and a ball and chain
• Combine multiple sets for even bigger battles
• Defeat the Mouth of Sauron on the poseable horse!
• Look out for flying catapult rocks!
• Sneak through the secret entrance!
• Soar into the air on the Great Eagle
• Collect the never-before-seen Mouth of Sauron and Aragorn™ decoration and cape
• Black Gate of Mordor™ (with gate closed) measures over 8" (22cm) high, 11" (30cm) wide and 2" (7cm) deep
• Great Eagle wingspan measures over 7" (19cm)

My analysis: Honestly I could just immediately say “Buy it” and you all could move on. I am going to expand on that, but if you are looking for a quick answer, that's the one.

What's not to love with this set? Everyone loves the gates and castle's that Lego has done and this one is just amazingly impressive. First off, it has 5 minifigures which is really solid for a $60 set. It also includes one that is exclusive in the mouth of Saur. Though he wont be incredibly sought after, he is really an awesome looking figure. It also comes with two orcs which is always good for army building. The Black gate itself if really a daunting shade of black and is designed perfectly so that you can create giant walls and combine this set with others to really make an impressive scene, It's also only $.09 a piece which is incredible for a licensed set with this many minifigures. Honestly I think people would have paid $80 for this set.

On top of all this it comes with a black horse and the great eagle figure which an awesome size for display and play-ability. The gate itself also has some cool features in a secret entrance and the flying catapult rocks which will really make kids want this.

I think this is going to be one of the sets to have of the whole LOTR series and will really post an impressive mid-size set CAGR. Make sure you have tons of these before they EOL (which will be a long while). Make sure you build at least one or two as well. I guarantee it will see a CAGR of 35+ in the first year (My guarantees do not have a penalty so don't take that as a real guarantee )

The Pirate Ambush 79008

From the Lego Website:

Launch an ambush attack on the Sauron Army from the Pirate Ship!
On the shores of Minas Tirith, Sauron’s Mordor Orcs prepare to greet their allies aboard the Pirate Ship – but all is not as it seems. Pull up alongside them, drop the anchors and lead a surprise attack with Aragorn, Gimli, Legolas Greenleaf and the Army of the Dead. This majestic Corsair ship features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbow and loads of armor and weapons! Capture the Orc catapult and lead the glow-in-the-dark King of the Dead and his soldiers into battle at the War of the Ring! Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: Aragorn, Legolas Greenleaf, Gimli, 2 Mordor Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar.

• Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: AragornTM, Legolas GreenleafTM, GimliTM, 2 MordorTM Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar
• Features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbows and lots of great Middle-earth Corsair detailing
• Also features firing Orc catapult with wheels
• Weapons include 3 swords, 3 crossbows, 3 spears, axe, long axe, bow with quiver and a longbow
• Accessories include 10 plain shields, 14 decorated shields, shackles, 2 torches, 2 keys, rat, bread, diamond, coins, maps, goblets and a chain
• Lock up the Pirate of Umbar so he doesn’t escape!
• Fend off the Orcs with the crossbow!
• Turn off the lights to see The Army of the Dead glow in the dark
• Drop the anchors and lead the charge against the Orc forces
• Measures over 13" (35cm) high, 23" (60cm) long and 5" (14cm) wide
• Catapult measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (8cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide

My Analysis: After the first couple sets in the new wave of this theme were a little underwhelming, it seems Lego more than compensated us. This set is incredible looking. This is a very popular scene from the movie and a good change of pace from all of the castle battles. The pirate ship is incredibly detailed and just has a nasty dead look to it (I mean that in a really great way).

Though the set has a relatively low number of pieces for a $100 set, it has 9 minifigures! On top of this, 4 of them are exclusive which is relatively unheard of in a movie themes like this. These include the coolest minifigures of the set in The King of the Dead, both Soldiers of the Dead, and the Pirate of Umbar.

From an investment standpoint, I just really can't find anything at all wrong with this set. It has the four exclusive minifigures as well as 9 total. It's also a pirate ship which have done incredibly well as Lego sets. Queen Anne's Revenge 4195 has a CAGR of 37.45% and 4184 the Black Pearl has a CAGR of 29.38%! This means we can expect something around 30% CAGR on the low side. I would venture this set may do even better because of the fact that Lord of the Rings was more popular than The Pirates of the Carribean,.

Playability is pretty obvious as well with all the minifigures, the details on the ship and the catapult. Just all around a great set with no downsides. I will have one or two to display as long as plenty to invest in. I would suggest you do the same.

The Tower of Orthanic 10237

From the Lego website:

Build the The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy must-have model!
Finally, collect one of the most instantly recognizable and iconic buildings of The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy: The Tower of Orthanc™! Build all 6 highly detailed floors filled with fascinating movie-related details including the attic, library, alchemy room, Saruman’s throne room, entrance hall and dungeon. This exclusive model stars in some of the most iconic scenes from The Lord of the Rings movies. Swoop down with the Great Eagle and rescue stranded Gandalf the Grey from his tower-top prison after his defeat at the hands of the white wizard, Saruman. Build the powerful, tree-like Ent, with poseable limbs and cool swinging arm function, then attack the Uruk-hai and Orc Pitmaster while Saruman and his servant Grima Wormtongue take refuge high in the tower. The Tower of Orthanc is a must-have model for any The Lord of the Rings collection! Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf the Grey, an Uruk-hai and the Orc Pitmaster.
• Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf™ the Grey, an Uruk-hai™ and the Orc Pitmaster
• Features 6 highly detailed floors with lots of functions, including a folding staircase, LEGO® light brick palantir, opening entrance doors and a trap door
• Weapons include 5 staffs, knife, sword, shield and a long axe
• The attic features a folding staircase, the 3 staffs of the missing wizards, the 2 keys of the Two Towers, 2 maps and an Uruk-hai helmet, shield and sword
• The library features 2 books, 2 torches, 2 maps and 2 skulls
• The alchemy room features 2 torches, a bomb (being produced for the Battle of Helm’s Deep™), 2 potions, bottle, skull, gunpowder keg, pot, cauldron and a long axe
• Saruman’s throne room features lamps, 2 bookcases with 3 potions, map, letter and the powerful palantir with a LEGO light brick
• The entrance hall features opening doors, trap door, 2 large banners, chandelier, statue and 2 axes
• The creepy dungeon features a chain, 2 bones, 2 skulls and a rat
• Buildable Ent features poseable limbs for holding a minifigure and a cool swinging arm function
• Attack the tower with the cool buildable and poseable Ent!
• Swoop to the rescue with the Great Eagle!
• Activate the LEGO light brick and make the palantir glow!
• Set the trap door and banish unwanted guests to the dungeon!
•Prepare the bomb for the Battle of Helm’s Deep!
• Swing the Ent’s arms to smash or grab things with the poseable fingers!
• Measures over 28" (73cm) high, 8" (21cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
• Ent stands over 9" (23cm) tall

My Analysis: If you think I liked the last couple of sets in this line, take it and multiply it by 100 for this set. As Ed said in a recent thread, this is an incredibly impressive set (Ed said it looked much better than the new UCS X-Wing).

Before I give more analysis, I want to offer something as an example of the Tower's Power (It should have surname of Tower of Power. Man that was a great band. I digress). My wife recently bought a 3D puzzle from Barnes and Noble of the Tower of Orthanic. It is in our kitchen. Everyone that has come in our house has commented on how awesome it is:

This tower, that everyone has found impressive, is made of foam puzzle pieces. Not Legos. Looking at this set, my puzzle conversation piece has absolutely nothing on Lego's Tower. I think we will have this in the kitchen as well and anyone who comes in our house will never shut up about it.

Along with the set, you get 5 minifigures with one of them being Grima Wormtounge who is exclusive to the set. You also get a great Eagle and one of my most anticipated minifigure: Ent. This guy is going to be a big time money maker. I would venture to say he is one of the top 5 characters from the movie and with his giant stature (9 inches tall) he will be one of the best minifigures out there. He adds a ton of playability and investment stature to this set.

Just with everything above, this set would be a winner. But now we are adding the fact that this is a Hard to Find, expensive set. It is also a Lego Exclusive meaning pretty much no discounts ever on it (since there isn't a LOTR special Lego day to get half price on a set) , keeping the price high. I really completely believe this set will see SW UCS set gains with it being worth up to $600-$800 in 4-5 years after retirement. It is a complete set and the fact that it matches up with the black gate just makes it even more desirable. Everyone that gets that Black Gate is going to want this set.

Make sure you have as many of these as possible when it goes away. You will not be sorry.

Well there you have it. I know I will have one of each of these to build and be looking to get each of the Gate, Ship, and Tower for investing purposes. I think this line will be the best gaining theme of 2013 and possibly even better than the recent Harry Potter line. Plus these movies are already out and are done which means the series can't go down or have a bad movie like the Star Wars line and the Hobbit line and wont ever have duplicates most likely.

What do you all think? Do you share my optimism or do you see any downfalls?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

After that short introduction, my main purpose with this article is to showcase one of the best performer sub-themes of LEGO CITY, the airport/plane themed sets. No city will ever be complete until there is a functional airport that serves commercial and private entities, and LEGO fans of all ages know this very well. Even more, planes in general are one of the most successful LEGO investments you can make, as a previous article in the Evaluation Corner explains, given their popularity with people of all ages.

Something else CITY airport themed sets have going for them is the fact that, unlike fire or police stations, you can keep expanding airports as long as you would like, as that is usually how real world airports work. I am not saying that you can’t purchase two different CITY fire stations and have a really large one, but I think you will agree that one is usually enough, as they are very similar. On the other hand, by purchasing several of the airport sets you can expand your airport, getting more terminals and of course adding several planes, it just looks more realistic in my opinion.

Before we go into the specifics, let’s take a look at the overall statistics of the Airport sub-theme. First of all, I selected the 9 sets that have already been retired on the airport sub-theme (and a couple really similar ones from the cargo sub theme) from Brickpicker’s price guide to calculate the numbers, so the upcoming sets to be released later this year were not included. Based on that information, we can see that the average CAGR of this sub-theme is around 20.22 %, a very high number well above the average LEGO theme. In fact, if we took this number and placed the whole airport sub-theme into Brickpicker’s theme ranking, it would make the Top 15, above Harry Potter, Sculptures and some other popular ones.

Let’s now take a look at individual (Retired) sets, including some promotional ones as well:

- 3182 Airport

Comments: This set is the largest one produced to date on the Airport sub-theme, with 703 pieces. A must have to any city, this set is really detailed and comes with a really cool plane, so you are basically getting most of the things you need to start building your international airport. The plane can be opened and played with inside, and there is even a nice baggage cart to take the bags out of it.

Investment wise, this set has done outstandingly well. The airport retired only by the end of last year, and while in November it had a Market Value of around $ 106, to get one now it will cost you almost $ 150. That’s an almost 50 % change over retail in just a few months.

- 7894 Airport

Comments: Very different in appearance to the newer version, but still almost the same when it comes to size and piece count. As 3182, the set also included a plane, but its main appeal, in my opinion, is the inclusion of the jetway that is not present in any other airport themed set and is an extremely necessary section. As I said before, these differences between the main two airport terminal sets really allow for anyone to buy several copies and build them together while still adding some realism to their city.

As its younger sibling, this set has appreciated nicely since it retired a few years back, with a CAGR of close to 10 % at this point and a market value of over $ 150. It seems that sealed copies of this set are somewhat hard to find, and the only ones currently listed on eBay ask for almost $ 300!

- 7734 Cargo Plane

Comments: This is a really cool plane that used to be the only cargo plane you could buy to add to your airport, something that will change with some of the upcoming sets. Not being the traditional passenger plane, this set is the one that has appreciated the best at this point in the airport sub-theme with a CAGR of almost 40 % and currently selling for over $ 200. The set appears to have stabilized a while ago, but we will have to see how the market reacts to the new Cargo Terminal that is going to be released later in the year. Still, given that this plane is so much different from the newer one, propellers vs. jet engines, and that people will likely prefer to add some variety to their airport, I don’t see this set being hurt too much.

-7893 Passenger Plane

Comments: The largest passenger plane released and the only one with four jet engines has also been an investment powerhouse over the years. The set has been retired for almost five full years and still presents a CAGR of over 20 %, with a current market value of around $ 160, translated to a 300% change over retail. Considering that the set originally retailed for $ 40, this has proven to be one of the best plane sets investment wise released under the CITY theme.

- 7733 Truck and Forklift

Comments: Not exclusively an airport themed set, but one that fits nicely into the category now that the new Cargo Terminal themed sets are coming out, including a remake of this very same truck. The 7733 set has appreciated nicely to over the past few years, and considering it was retired some time by the end of 2009 and beginning of 2010, its almost 30 % CAGR demonstrates a great performance. The set itself is very interesting, and we can hope that the new version is as popular as this one has been so far. For a set with a MSRP of only $ 25.00 there are very few listings for it in MISB condition on eBay, and the ones currently available ask for almost double the price guide’s value, so apparently the set went under the radar of most investors at the time.

- 3181 Passenger Plane

Comments: One of the smaller planes released, this set was just retired around October of last year. There is not much to this set other than the plane and a small tow truck, but in my opinion it serves it purpose and allows for a more realistic airport, with planes of different design and sizes. As far as growth, this one has gone up somewhat slowly, but with some CITY sets that’s usually the way they work, most of them just don’t shoot up quickly in value, but rather have slow but steady movements. So far, it has a CAGR of around 8 % and sells for $ 50, but look for it to continue moving up and reach maybe $ 70 by the end of the year.

- 3222 Helicopter and Limousine

Comments: This little set is also one of the top performers in the list, since it was a Walmart exclusive and only lasted around four months on the shelves, factors that usually lead to abnormal returns in most sets. With an original retail of $ 30, the Helicopter and Limousine is currently selling for almost three times retail, and from the current listings on eBay it should continue to go up in the coming months.

- 7891 Airport Fire Truck

Comments: There is always need for an emergency vehicle at the airport, just in case one of the planes has a little accident while landing or taking off. This is the set that fills that gap and is actually one of the older ones present in the list. There is really not much to the set other than being a yellow fire truck, but it has done reasonable well in the secondary market with a CAGR of more than 14 %, more than doubling in value.

- 3178 Seaplane

Comments: Once you start getting into the smaller sets, the only way to make a decent amount of profit is either by moving a lot of them or by picking the ones that just explode in value. This little Seaplane falls into the first category, since with a CAGR of around 11% it has only gone up less than $ 5.00, and the fact that it was available for a lot more than two years does not help either. Still, this set was just retired at the end of last year, so there is plenty of time for it to grow.

Growth of sets with less than 100 pieces

Growth of promotional sets

The sets above complete the whole list of sets under the Airport theme, with the smallest sets that have less than 100 pieces and all of the promotional sets that were given out in some way or the other. As you would expect, some of this hard to find promotional sets have become very valuable, especially the 2928 that was only given as a promotion with a partnership with some major airlines.

Now that we have examined some of the past sets in the airport sub-theme, is worth mentioning that there are no more currently for sale in stores, but that will be changing in a couple months when LEGO releases for of its 2013 CITY set. In my opinion, you would be wise in taking a look into them and maybe deciding to invest in at least a couple in a way to diversify your Brickfolio. Even more I think that from the historical performance of this sub-theme, you really should not be disappointed. I will list the upcoming sets next.

60022 Cargo Terminal: This is in my opinion the most promising set of the ones to be released later in 2013. From the past performance of the only Cargo Plane, I would expect this set to be a similar performer in the secondary market, and for some reason it is my belief that a lot of investors will not pay too much attention to it in the end. You better be on the other side of the aisle!

60021 Cargo Heliplane: Very cool looking aircraft again focused more in cargo transportation than passengers. There is not that much information about this set at the time, but it does look to be a very solid investment choice, especially since it is another Cargo focused plane and not really a plane you get to see that often.

60020 Cargo Truck: If you remember from an earlier section of our article, we examined an extremely similar set: 7733 Truck and Forklift. This is almost the exact same set released again under a different name and, if all goes the way I think, could very easily recreate the same growth trend of its predecessor. It is not a fancy or really remarkable set, so I think investors will once again miss on the chance and not stock up on this one, something some may regret later!

60019 Stunt Plane: This is probably going to be the smallest of the 2013 CITY airport sets, but at the same time is also a very unique one. A stunt plane could prove to be very popular, but there is really not much information from previous sets that can help us determine how it might do in the future.

And that’s it as far as LEGO CITY airport sets are concerned. I really hope this article will bring some of the investors who haven’t though too much about CITY as an investment to maybe research it a little bit more and see that there are actually some really nice returns in several different sets. Also, more specifically in the airport sub-theme, you see that there are a lot of really great performers, so if you want to start investing in CITY and already have some of the trains, your next best bet might be investing in planes and airports!

Thanks for reading.
 

It's been said that there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes.

The tax implications from selling your LEGO can vary depending on many factors. According to the IRS, whenever profit is made on a transaction, the result is taxable income. Realistically speaking, since it is usually up to the seller to self-report the taxable income, there are hundreds of thousands of transactions every day that "fall under the tax radar." Selling a few sets on eBay may keep you under the radar for a while, but the more transactions you do and the more money you make will speed up the inevitability that sooner or later, you will have to pay taxes on your profits. (Note: the biggest exception to self-reporting is If you make more than $600 in a year from any one source, you may get a "1099-MISC" from that source which reports your income to the IRS.)

So how is my LEGO income taxed?

Because the US tax code is so vast, there are a number of different ways your LEGO income could be taxed. In my experience, there are three main categories: hobby, investment, and business.

If your LEGO activity is a hobby, it means you have no intent on making a profit and can only deduct expenses up to any income. This classification is not actually desirable from a tax perspective and the IRS uses it to re-class "business losses" that some taxpayers use to offset other income.

Most of us that are using the "buy and hold" technique would classify our LEGO as an investment....and the IRS would agree. According to IRS Topic 409, collectibles are considered a "capital asset" for tax purposes. Think of your LEGO as in the same category as artwork, coins, stamps, or any other collectible that may hold value. So what does this mean to your LEGO profits? It means that the tax you owe depends on how long you owned the product. If you sell LEGO that you held for less than 1 year, then it is considered a short-term capital gain, it is taxed at your normal income tax rate (up to 39.6%), and you can only net your short-term capital losses. If you had owned that same LEGO for more than 1 year, then the profit is a long-term capital gain, taxed at a maximum of 28%, and can be netted against any long-term or short term capital losses. Furthermore, you can deduct up to $1500 in net capital losses per year ($3,000 if filing jointly with spouse) against your normal income and can be carried forward to future years. So long-term classification is better from a tax perspective, but you cannot deduct property held for personal use - it has to be an investment. Capital gains and losses are reported on Schedule D and reported on an individual tax return (1040).

Lastly, those that engage in LEGO buying and selling with an intent to make profit may classify their activity as a business. This classification has pros and cons. Pros include the ability to "write off" all expenses related to your activities and even report a tax loss on your tax return (offsetting your other income). The cons are mostly twofold: 1) many, many more documentation requirements and 2) paying self-employment taxes (currently 15.3%) on net income. Business income is reported on Schedule C of the 1040 return unless you've registered as a partnership, LLC, or Corporation.

There is no cut and dried rule regarding whether your activity would be viewed by the IRS as a business or not, but generally speaking, they look at how much time you put in, the manner in which you carry out the activity, and your past history of profits and losses. In other words, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck....it's probably a duck. If you run a website or store, have business cards, and turn a monthly profit...chances are your LEGO activity is a business. If you buy and hold some sets to sell in future years...chances are it's an investment. Real Estate investors/flippers must also wrestle with these issues.

Do I really have to report my LEGO income?

One of the most common questions with selling stuff second-hand is "do I have to pay taxes?" Well, the answer is "yes" according to the law. But in reality, many people don't report their second-hand or online sales. My gut tells me that there are plenty of people making a large amount of money that goes unreported. However, if the IRS ever comes a-knocking in the form of an audit, those people will end up owing a lot of money. Similar to the "LEGO S@H Blacklist" conversation, seemingly the best way to stay under their radar is to limit your transactions. Regardless, every LEGO investor should have a plan in mind when starting off as to what type of investor they will be and how to handle their tax responsibilities.

I hope this post has been insightful. I hope to post more blogs about the business side of LEGO - including how to start a LEGO business and different accounting and budgeting tips. I look forward to hearing from anyone who already runs their LEGO activity as a business. /Matt

To figure out if any sectors are at risk, let's define what a bubble is first. The classic definition of an economic bubble condition is when a product sells for significantly more than its intrinsic value. While this bubble definition is extremely broad, it gives us one nugget to consider: the concept of intrinsic value. Finding a lego brick's intrinsic value is actually quite simple and easily measured: figure out what people pay for a commoditized version of the product. For Lego bricks, Bricklink is a great resource for MOCers to purchase any number of thousands of bricks at competitive prices. These prices should set the basis to measure the intrinsic value of the set. To do this, we add up the price for each piece a set comes with, throw in the instructions, and throw in the box value, and voila - your replacement cost of materials becomes your measure of Intrinsic value". While this doesn't include the value of the time to purchase the pieces, or any number of other hidden costs. we can still use the cost of materials as a proxy for "intrinsic value".

Now that we have a rpugh approximation of the intrinsic value of a set, it can be compared to an average sold price for the set to see if there's a significant discrepancy between the two. In a bubble condition affecting all Lego products, we would expect to see a huge disparity in value between the part-out price and the BP new set value across a majority of themes and models. Alas, when making this comparison for random sets, we see there are literally thousands of sets where the sum of the parts is greater than the value of the model, both retired and unretired. Here are some examples I selected prior to knowing the part out and BP new set values:

Set Name - Part-Out Value - BP New Set Value
Portal of Atlantis - $130.78 - $65.61
Cafe Corner - $874.70 - $978.60
Green Grocer - $642.66 - $674.04
An Unexpected Gathering - $134.77 - $48.44

As I said, there thousands more, so based upon this analysis we can assume that there's no bubble Lego-wide at this point in time. Yet, there is one specific segment of the Lego product line where determining intrinsic value is extremely difficult: minifigures. Assessing the intrinsic value of a minifigure based on the sum of the part values doesn't make sense since the relatively small number of parts renders this analysis meaningless.

When delving deeper into the value of minifigures, it would stand to reason that a fig's value is based upon some combination of desirability and scarcity. Because minifigures are typically collected rather than "consumed" like the majority of Lego sets, it's easy to draw a parallel between minifigure collecting and baseball/beanie baby collecting. Typically, minifigures are worth what collectors will pay to add them to their collections similar to Joe Schmoe who buys a Honus Wagner tobacco card, or Peanut the Royal Blue Elephant. While army MOCers that require a large number of figs to complete their MOC provide an exception to the rule, most minifigs purchased separately are bought as collectibles. After seeing some incredible prices collectors are paying for ComicCon exclusive figures and the elusive Mr. Gold, it appears there's a real possibility of a minifigure bubble.

Honus Wagner - proof that collectible values are based more on scarcity than desirability...

How do we determine if there is a threat of a minifigure bubble? Let's take a look at the values of a cross section of specific minifigures:

Exclusives:
Bizarro (ComicCon 2012) - $237.50
Mr. Gold - $676.51

Non-Exclusives:
CMF Series 1: Zombie - $19.30
CMF Series 1: Forestman - $1.30
Black Falcon - Black Legs with Red Hips, Black Chin-Guard: $6.67
Farmer - Green Overalls, Blue Cap - $2.35
Kai, Kimono - $5.56
Voldemort, White Head - $4.83

This list highlights a significant characteristic of the Lego minifigure market: while Exclusive minifigures typically sport the "insane" values, non-exclusives have a much harder time posting crazy profits that are multiple factors above the value of an average minifig. This actually mirrors the baseball card market - "commons" don't have much value above the average card price, while exclusives, or in this case rare vintage cards, have tremendous value. The baseball card market has already gone through a bubble cycle, and today its characteristics loosely match the minifigure market. In fact, most collectible markets have this same structure - commons sell for a small, "average" price equivalent to the "intrinsic value", while exclusive pieces sell for significantly more. It's only when the value of exclusive figs begin to raise the prices of the commons that a true bubble condition occurs. For Lego minifigs, I don't see this happening anytime soon.  

If demand suddenly craters for Lego products, you will see the entire secondary market suffer (including minifigs and retired sets), yet this would take an unprecedented shock to the system. More likely, a gradual erosion of popularity would occur over time if Lego stopped making sets that are desirable to their core children market. A final look at the baseball card market shows their "exclusives" are as popular as ever: on April 6 of this year, a Honus Wagner T206 sold for $2.1 Million, an unprecedented sum for this card. I would expect Lego minifigs to follow suit.

The reasons I chose this movie? Well, besides it being very popular and quotable, any movie with aliens and spaceships are going to have tons of good ideas for Lego sets. Everyone loves aliens and spaceships; this is what the whole Star Wars theme is built off of!

So, without further rambling, I give you my sets from the movie Independence Day:

The Welcome Wagon 1

This ship doesn't have a huge part in the movie. If you remember, this was the helicopter that was being recorded and broadcast on live TV from that was covered in lights. They were trying to communicate to the aliens through the use of visual stimulus. That vehicle did not last very long at all as the Aliens abruptly told them "Hi!" back... with an explosion.

So why this helicopter? First of all, it is because it's a really unique helicopter and is a very iconic scene in the movie. This was the first time the aliens really showed any bit of malice at all towards the people of Earth. Secondly, Lego planes and vehicles have been very popular and this one is unique enough that it could be popular as a change of pace from all the others.

In my eyes, it would be a smaller set, around 300 pieces or so. Since Lego has started getting into a few bricks that light up in the Monster Fighters line, this one would utilize that as well. When turned on, the lights would flash from the helicopter so that it could communicate with any aliens in front of it. It would come with two minifigures – The pilot and the welcoming officer with the light controls.

F/A -18 Hornet

This jet is one of the ones that was featured in the beginning of the battle between Earth and the Aliens. Will Smith and his team of fighter pilots were flying these. These jets were very memorable in the movie; they really stood no chance at all against the enemy aircraft and were overrun pretty quickly. If you remember, everyone was pretty much taken down except for Will Smith.

This jet would be a very popular vehicle among people who liked the movie and people who collect Lego vehicles. There are not near as many Jets as airplanes and helicopter's in the Lego line up. As well, the F/A 18 Hornet is a very popular Jet to people who like military aircraft. It is one of my favorites.

To really make this set sell to everyone, it could come with 4 flick missiles for the 4 missiles each of the jets had in the movie. It would also come with an ejection seat along with a parachute that would pop out once the pilot had been ejected. Since only one person was flying these jets in the movie, it would only come with one minifigure, but hey, it would be Will Smith. Who needs more than that?

Alien Fighter Craft

This was an obvious one to have in the lineup. I always loved this vehicle in the movie because, even though it seemed like a take on a flying saucer, it was so much more sophisticated. Because of it's size and aerodynamics, it could seemingly change direction at will and was incredibly fast. Also, who doesn't want to fly a plane that is protected by a seemingly invincible shield (Unless you run into a mountain or Jeff Goldblum gives you a computer virus)?

This ship itself would be the one that was hidden inside Area 51 for the last 20 years. The set would include two flick missiles on the side of it for the Alien's artillery, but they would be made differently as to look more advanced than the Earth's puny current flick missile technology.

The cabin of the aircraft would also open up so that characters could fit inside. The aircraft controls would also be included for great detail inside the ship along with a sign that mistakenly had the up and down direction switched (We need to work on our communication!). This would be a better minifigure set coming with:

• Captain Steven Hiller (Will Smith)
• David Levenson (Jeff Goldblum)
• Dr. Brackish Okun
• An Alien

Having this set and the Jet set would provide hours of fun and entertainment.

Area 51

Any big time conspiracy theorists out here? This one would really appeal to everyone. The set would really be for use with the above set, but I thought it would be cool to have I be separate since it is a pretty big place not only in the movie, but in historical pop culture.

This set would mainly be an open modular set with a walkway leading into the docking room for the Alien Space craft. Along the way, there would be classified and “sterile” areas for scientists to work on with Computers and lab machines.

The docking area itself would include a landing area for the alien ship so that it could be safely docked inside the area. Behind the docking area there would be double doors so that when the ship wants to leave, they could open allowing the ship to fly out to save our Earth (assuming the alien is not in it).

This set could also include the doctor's surgery area so that they can cut open the alien to see what's inside. This set would include:

• Dr. Brackish Okun
• Two other unlucky surgeons
• An Alien whose exoskeleton pops open like in the movie
• 2 other robed scientists who are working around area 51

Hopefully, this set would appeal to all the conspiracy theorists out there as well as people who loved the movie!

Check-Mate

If you watched this movie in theaters when it came out, you knew this was the part you had really been waiting for. As things get more and more nervous, David Levenson has his large countdown clock on his laptop which indicates that something bad will happen when it turns to all zeros, or “check-mate” as he dubs it.

In the movie, though this wasn't the first building to go, this was the one that really sticks out in people's minds because of what the White House symbolizes to America. Also, because the movie somewhat centers around the President (Bill Pullman), this is what was really signifying the attack on him as a leader and his personal hate for the Aliens.

The set would include the large Alien ship along with opening doors for the light-beam attack they use to destroy the cities. Once these doors opened, another light brick would be inserted so that it could be shown down onto any unsuspecting Lego buildings someone decided to destroy. The White House would be a small model, like the current architecture set. In my eyes, it could be engineered so that once put together, something could be pulled or pressed by the person playing with it to make it fall apart (at least into a couple of large pieces to simulate an explosion).

I would also include a stand system with the set so that it could sit upright with the Alien ship hovering over the White House about to open it's major attack for those of us who would want to display it. Maybe even give it a display placard like the UCS Star Wars sets.

Minifigures would include:

• The President (Bill Pullman)
• David Levenson
• Constance Spano (Margaret Colin)
• An Alien for good measure

The MotherShip

Though the mother-ship wasn't shown a ton during the movie and eventually meets it end by nuclear warfare, it is a really nice looking ship. It is very comparable to some of the larger Star Wars ships like the Super Star Destroyer. Because of this, I think it would make a great 4000 piece set. It could be very detailed and even include a docking area for the smaller versions of the ships in the above sets. It could even be made into more of a play-set like the Death Star 10188.

This set would be really great to have this one as well if you were doing some fleet building with the other alien ships as this was the one that controlled them all. There could be a lot of different alien minifigures that could come with this set as well to really fill out the whole theme as play-sets. Minifigures would include:

• David Levenson
• Captain Stephen Hiller
• 10 Aliens (or really as many as they will give us! They were starting an invasion, remember?)
• Queen Alien

The Alien Bust

I am not going to lie, I am a sucker for the Lego busts. I love models and things of that nature, so sets that are statuesque really make me want to open my wallet. The Alien form Independence day is very unique. As we heard the doctor say, it has the outer harder biochemical skeleton that protects the soft inner tissue. It also has 8 tentacle/arms protruding from it's body. It honestly kind of reminds me of General Grievous a little bit:

This would be the UCS set that came with a placard in my eyes. It is a very recognizable alien and different form most other sci-fi movies out there (It is somewhat close to Alien, but it is easy to tell the difference between the long double mouth of Alien himself.)

What do you all think? A great theme, or a total dud? They would at least sell one of them, that's for sure!

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.

Moral of the story: Don't spill nail polish remover on your Lego

Lesson of the story: If you do want your Lego to be stuck together (I did the unthinkable and glued together a custom minifigure this evening as part of the gift) then use some Nail Polish Remover or anything with Acetone in it.
 

An even tougher conundrum comes up when I get a set for way less than retail. And the set is MISB. I paid the same amount for it that I would for a used set, so does it make any difference if I go ahead and open it?

The answer is “It depends on what you can live with”. Let's examine things a little bit.

First off, let's examine a situation where you just got a brand new set for investing and looking at it, you think it is really cool and you want to build it. What are the issues with doing so:

• How well will this set do? - If this set becomes a huge money maker, the gap between the worth of a new and used set gets larger and larger. So one day, could this set be worth double or triple by being in the box?
• Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper? - If you could, then you would be paying less money to open that set up and the other you would still have to invest in. This way you saved some money now and you still won't regret opening anything. The downside is, you still had to purchase the second set which means more money now.
• Are you sure how long you are going to keep it? - This is something that really intrigues me. Everyday surfing Ebay I see tons of used sets being sold by people that most likely bought them new and took really good care of them. Why are they selling them? Did they lose interest? Do they need the money? Before you open a set, unfortunately you have to think about things like this because a set is worth more new than used.
• What if I got the set for the same price as a used set? - You may think there is no downside to going ahead and opening it up to build. If you bought another, it would cost the same amount so technically you aren't out any money.

These are really tough questions, much tougher than just ripping the seal off those new sets. But to get the most out of your Lego investment and Lego collection these must be asked. So let's examine each carefully.

How well will this set do?

This is obviously a question that no one can answer correctly right off the bat. But we can definitely take our Lego experiences and use this site to help predict properly what sets will do. Why does this matter? Well, think about someone who bought an Atlantis set and wanted to open it. If they did, they lost absolutely nothing. However, if someone had a UCS Millennium Falcon MISB and opened it, they may have lost $900 if they tried to sell it later.

Let's look at a little bit of data to get a good picture of this. I am going to categorize sets a few different ways just so that we see potential loss based on opening the set. Obviously there are many more investment “profiles” but this gives you a good idea of the loss associated with opening different types of sets.

Spider-Man potential (Solid about 15% CAGR potential)

Taking all the new and used sets in the line and comparing the values, we see that you lose about 65% of the value by opening the sets.

Harry Potter (recent) Line Potential (High potential, over 20% CAGR)

I used the last line of Harry Potter sets which have all seen about 15-30% CAGR. Currently, comparing the new price with the used price, on average you lose about 32% of the set's value by selling it used.

SW UCS potential (Only retired sets) (Legendary potential - Lego investing gold)

Using all the retired UCS sets in the line, you will lose 43% of the value by opening the set.

So what does that tell us? Well it tells us that, depending on the ceiling of the set, by opening it you can lose somewhere from 30-60% of the sets value. I think this goes up as the sets get older. The Spider-man sets are all very old, so finding a new one becomes rarer and rarer. That makes it's price go up while the used stays the same. This is becoming the same with the older UCS SW sets as well like the X-wing and Tie Interceptor which used price was worth less than 50% of the new price. For the recent Harry Potter sets, this wasn't as bad because there are still plenty of these sets around.

Obviously all this is dependent on the price. If you are talking about a $20 set and you think it's 5 year ceiling is $50, then you only stand to lose about $15 if you feel like it will show gain like the Harry Potter sets. At worst, if it lost 65% of it's value, you are looking at a $35 loss. Chances are, the longer you wait, the more money you will be losing.

But, if you get a set that is $300 and you feel its ceiling is $1500, if you lose 30%, that is already a $450 loss. For the 10179 millennium falcon, you have a loss of about $900 dollars. This is definitely way more substantial. Ask someone who paid $500 for an MISB 10179 and sold it as used several years later if they wished they had just left it in the box.

Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper?

This is a very important piece of your decision to open a set. If you paid $100 for a set and open it, but you could have gotten the same set opened for $30 cheaper, then you wasted $30. There are definitely some people who just like opening a fresh, new set, but is it really worth losing the money? Every time I think about opening a set, I start to look around for a used set.

You have to remember, assuming you keep your investing and entertainment/collecting budget separate, the moment you open this set, the money is transferring from your investment budget to your entertainment budget. If you move that over and the set you just opened becomes a huge gainer, that is a lot of money you just lost from your investment capital. However, if you bought a second one for cheaper to open, you just took a slight bit out of your entertainment budget and your investment budget is intact.

This all depends on what you can live with later on as well. Maybe you won't really care that you opened the set and won't think about the money you could have lost. I have that problem; I can't deal with the fact I may have lost money. If you do, you will feel much better about putting together a used set with no box over opening up a brand new one.

Are you sure how long you are going to keep it?

This is something no one really knows but you – and you probably don't even know. All of us have hobbies that stick with us for most of our lives, and we have some that come and go without any warning at all. I know it is a lot easier for me to break those new seals on a set when I am absolutely confident I will never get rid of it. If I know that, the problems with possibly losing money become somewhat moot as I am never going to sell it anyway.

If you seem to be more of a fleeting personality, opening all these sets may become of big regret to you later. I would use caution and your intelligence here more than anything. If you think this set may be worth 100s of dollars later, make sure you can live with selling it and losing that extra money.

What if I got the set for the same price as a used set?

This really becomes tough and I would tell you to, in this case, go with your gut. For me, because I treat my budgets separately, I always buy a used set to put together because I look at everything in investments and return on investment. The new set I have in my hands is worth more than a used set I buy for the same price, even if I spent the same amount on them.

Again, it comes back to what you can live with. Can you live with opening a brand new set and thinking about how much you might have lost by doing it? I can't, which is why I put those inexpensive new sets away and go after used sets.

So all we have talked about is how bad it can be to open a new set. How do you benefit from opening a new set instead of a used set? Well, though these are minor details, they do make a difference:

• New sets means new pieces. They will most likely be in better shape and will not have any wear. You do not know what the person before you did with the set they had, whether they say it was a display and smoke-free or not.
• The stickers haven't been applied. You may get someone's set who didn't really try to apply the stickers correctly. If you have OCD, this is seriously going to bother you.
• If the used set is assembled, it is hard to immediately tell all the pieces are there.
• If the set is already assembled, some can't bring themselves to break it down and rebuild it so they lose the building experience.
• If you open it and take care of everything, it would possibly be in a better “used” shape then if you bought it already used. This could bridge the price gap.

This is a lot of stuff to think about and there is no definitive answer. I just wanted to offer some of my thoughts on the subject so that people could get a perspective on the matter, especially if you tend to open a lot of new sets. How do you all feel? Do you open your sets new, or buy all opened sets to build?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

The set has two minifigures (Jeff Fisher and Barracuda Guardian), one of which is a rare minifigure, Jeff Fisher. The set also included a camera, a trident, a deep sea jet with a harpoon and grabbing claws, and the angler fish with moving fins and tail.

The set was released in late 2010/early 2011 and the set was retired in late 2011. The set was available on the primary market for about a year. Some stores may have had the set longer due to higher prices which would have made it available longer in the primary market, but not for long.

The 7978 Angler Attack is the best set for investing from the Atlantis theme. Although the Atlantis theme has overall Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -2.67%, this set has a better CAGR. The set has a CAGR of 16.61%. That is 19.28% above the overall CAGR for the Atlantis theme. Let's look at some simple charts showing the sold listings and the sales trends for the new sets over the past year. Sold Listings:

• June 2012: 6
• July 2012: 13
• August 2012: 6
• September 2012: 9
• October 2012: 3
• November 2012: 5
• December 2012: 11
• January 2013: 6
• February 2013: 5
• March 2013: 7
• April 2013: 4
• May 2013: 5

Over the past year, there has been eighty (80) 7978 Angler Attack sets sold. This means the average sets sold new per month is about seven (7) sets. All this data shows that there is interest in the set, thus making it a potential investment. What makes it a worthy investment is if people are willing to pay more for the same set. Here is another chart chowing the sales trend for the new sets sold over the past years.

Sales Trend:

• June 2012: $22.35 USD
• July 2012: $20.68 USD
• August 2012: $21.56 USD
• September 2012: $23.39 USD
• October 2012: $23.41 USD
• November 2012: $24.12 USD
• December 2012: $25.35 USD
• January 2013: $25.53 USD
• February 2013: $25.06 USD
• March 2013: $25.60 USD
• April 2013: $27.88 USD
• May 2013: $27.18 USD

Over the past year, the set has increased in $4.83 USD in value. Over this year the Return On Investment (ROI) is 24.16% for this year. The ROI for the set on its retail value is 35.97%. These are both very good ROI. From this chart, the set has been growing in value as time goes on. The average increase per month for this set is forty cents ($0.40 USD). I can see this set going in the price range of $30-$40 USD in the future.

My recommendation is to buy the set, but I would buy the set lower than what it is valued at. Even though the set is a good investment, you should always be prepared for the value to go down. Hopefully that will not happen, but it is always possible. The set has a good CAGR that is above the average CAGR for the Atlantis theme. The set also has a high ROI for this year at nearly 25%. From all this information, I would buy this set myself to invest in.

Thanks for reading!
 

1. 7978 Angler Attack

The 7978 Angler Attack has the best CAGR out of all the Atlantis sets, which is 16.61%. I consider that a decent CAGR. The set is down 2.51% from the last month. The set has a retail price of $19.99 USD. Since the set has 200 pieces, the Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio for the set is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fourteen cents ($0.14 USD). The set has increased four cents per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2011: $19.99 USD
• 2012: $23.31 USD
• 2013: $27.18 USD
• 2014: $31.70 USD
• 2015: $36.96 USD

This set is a great investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively similar, after four to five years the set would have doubled its retail value.

2. 8056 Monster Crab Clash

The 8056 Monster Crab Clash has the second best CAGR of the Atlantis theme. The CAGR is 12.23%. I consider that a average CAGR. The set is down 2.47% from the last month. The set has a retail price of $6.99 USD. Since the set has sixty-eight (68) pieces, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents over three years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2010: $6.99 USD
• 2011: $7.84 USD
• 2012: $8.80 USD
• 2013: $9.88 USD
• 2014: $11.09 USD
• 2015: $12.45 USD

This set is another great investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively the same, the set would have doubled it retail price after six years in 2016.

3. 8058 Guardian of the Deep

The 8058 Guardian of the Deep has a very close CAGR to the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. It is only a quarter of a percent away. The CAGR for the set is 12.00%. The set has not changing in value over the past month. The set has a retail price of $14.99 USD. Since the set has 144 pieces, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents over three years. That is the exact same as the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2010: $14.99 USD
• 2011: $16.79 USD
• 2012: $18.80 USD
• 2013: $21.06 USD
• 2014: $23.59 USD
• 2015: $26.42 USD

This set is just like the 8056 Monster Crab Clash. The set is a great investment. If the CAGR stay the same or relatively the same, the set would double its retail value after six years in 2016.

4. 7976 Ocean Speeder

The 7976 Ocean Speeder is a decent investment from the Atlantis theme. The set has a CAGR of 9.20%. The set is down 0.83% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $4.99 USD. Since the set has fifty-four pieces, the PPP ratio is nine cents ($0.09 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of eleven cents ($0.11 USD) per piece. The set has increased two cents per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2011: $4.99 USD
• 2012: $5.45 USD
• 2013: $5.95 USD
• 2014: $6.50 USD
• 2015: $7.10 USD

This set is a good investment. If the CAGR stays the same or relatively the same, the set will have increased 50% over the retail price over four years in 2015.

5. 8073 Manta Warrior

The 8073 Manta Warrior is a decent/bad investment. The set only has a CAGR of 5.69%. The set is down 2.08% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $3.99 USD. Since the set has thirteen pieces, the PPP ratio is thirty-one cents ($0.31 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of thirty-six cents ($0.36 USD) per piece. The set has increased five cents per piece over three years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2010: $3.99 USD
• 2011: $4.21 USD
• 2012: $4.46 USD
• 2013: $4.71 USD
• 2014: $4.97 USD
• 2015: $5.26 USD

This set is a bad/decent investment. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, the set would take four years to grow 25% in value over the retail price. That would mean it took four years to make $1 USD per set.

6. 8072 Sea Jet

The 8072 Sea Jet is a decent/bad investment. The set only has a CAGR of 5.69%, just like the 8073 Manta Warrior. The set is up 1.29% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $3.99 USD, just like the 8073 Manta Warrior. Since the set has twenty-three (23) pieces, the PPP ratio is seventeen cents ($0.17 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2010. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of twenty cents ($0.20 USD) per piece. The set has increased three cents per piece over three years. Her is a simple chart showing the growth of the set.

• 2010: $3.99 USD
• 2011: $4.21 USD
• 2012: $4.46 USD
• 2013: $4.71 USD
• 2014: $4.97 USD
• 2015: $5.26 USD

This set is the exact same as the 8073 Manta Warrior. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, it is low and it only profitable if purchased in high numbers. It would take four years to make $1 USD per set.

7. 7985 City of Atlantis

The 7985 City of Atlantis is a bad investment. Even though the set has a positive CAGR, it is very low and not very profitable. The set has a CAGR of 3.10%. The set is up 2.23% from the past month. The set has a retail price of $69.99 USD. Since there are 686 pieces in the set, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio of eleven cents ($0.11 USD) per piece. The set has increased one cent per piece over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2011: $69.99 USD
• 2012: $72.16 USD
• 2013: $74.40 USD
• 2014: $76.70 USD
• 2015: $79.08 USD

This set is a bad investment. The set has increased $4 USD over two years. That is not a lot of money made. Even if you bought many sets, the set would still not be very profitable. Some people are fooled by this because they think a positive CAGR means a good positive return. This set says otherwise.

8. 7977 Seabed Strider

The 7977 seabed Strider is a bad investment. The set has a CAGR of 0.75%. That is less than a percent. That is not a lot of growth at all, but there is a very tiny amount of growth. The set has a retail price of $9.99 USD. Since there are 105 pieces in the set, the PPP ratio is ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set was released in 2011. Now in 2013, the set has a PPP ratio that is still ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. The set has a current value of $10.14 USD. The set has only increased fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) in value over two years. Here is a simple chart showing the growth of the set:

• 2011: $9.99 USD
• 2012: $10.06 USD
• 2013: $10.14 USD
• 2014: $10.22 USD
• 2015: $10.29 USD

Even though this set has a positive CAGR, it is very very very low, and it does not make a difference when investing. The set would take thirteen years to gain 10% or $1 USD over the retail price at this CAGR. This is not my investment choice.

These eight sets are the sets that have a positive CAGR from the Atlantis theme. All the set have positive CAGR, I only consider the top four sets worthy for investing. They have a high CAGR, which would make nice returns and profits unlike the other four sets that would take a long time to get a decent profit out of them. Hopefully, all these sets will continue to have these CAGR and even better ones to help in out investing

Thanks for reading!
 

Now that I have finished that article, I move on to the part I am really excited about: Planet Series 4. So first, lets go through what we have seen in the first series that is notable:

• Naboo Starfighter and Naboo
• Sebullas Podracer and Tatooine
• Interceptor and Death Star
• X-wing and Yavin 4
• Twin-pod Cloud Car and Bespin
• AT-ST and Endor
• Jedi Starfighter and Kamino
• Republic assault ship and Corusant
• Tie Bomber and Asteroid Field.

Looking above, the two best and most iconic ships above are the X-wing and the AT-ST. Of the rest, there are some decent ships, but nothing crazy popular. Adding to this, the X-Wing has somewhere near 10,000 other Lego renditions of it. The Death Star is pretty cool, but I don't think there is enough size and detail there to make it a record breaking set. The tie bomber is one of my favorite ships, but not everyone shares that opinion.

Let's compare them to the Planet Series 4:

• Snowspeeder and Hoth
• B-Wing Starfighter and Endor
• Tantive 4 and Alderaan

To me there is no comparison. This line of planet sets include the ships that I was really waiting for. These ships are not only iconic, but are very detailed. I think these ships have had a lot more success in the past as investments in their other forms as well. Don't believe me? All 3 of them have been UCS sets, with two of them being some of the best gaining UCS sets out there(We will have to wait and see with the B-wing). With these coming out soon, will this change the tune of the investors in regards to the Planet Series line?

75009 Snowspeeder and Hoth

My Analysis: The Hoth battle scene is one of the best battle scenes in the Star Wars movies. The AT-AT's walking around, the snowspeeders trying to take down the legs of the AT-ATs while the machines move towards Echo Base. This was even further boosted by the Nintendo 64 Star Wars games released in the early 90s that had several missions centered around Hoth itself and the battle surrounding it.

To me, this makes this set a great one to have. Yes, Hoth sets have been done before, but no sets currently have the actual planet in it (though it is only a plastic ball). Also, for about 60 pieces, the snowspeeder's detail is incredible. If you see an enlarged picture of it, its hard to tell it only includes that many pieces. The snowspeeder pilot is an exclusive remake as well, which will make it more collectible.

Another factor that makes this set a big winner is the fact that all three of the items are special: The planet is an iconic Star Wars planet, the ship is a very iconic ship (Check the UCS versions current market price!), and the minifigure is an exclusive redesign.

Let's look at a little bit of data for the previous snowspeeder sets:

• 4500 Rebel Snow Speeder – 10.44% CAGR, more than 2X retail currently.
• 10129 UCS Rebel Snowspeeder – 21.37% CAGR, almost 7 times retail value
• 7130 SnowSpeeder – 5.37% CAGR (Been around since 1999) – More than double retail value.

The only downsides with this set (besides wide availability) is the fact that it is a relatively low piece count for 9.99 at just 69. Honestly though, I think the planet and stand really make up for it because it appeals to those looking to play with it and those looking to display it.

I would wait it out a little before buying a bunch for retail, but if you can get a sale or clearance deal with these in it down to $8, I think its a no-brainer. I think this is going to see gains like the battle packs and be worth about $25 after the first two years or so! Children are going to absolutely love these and I think that people are going to be drawn towards series 4 especially.

75010 B-Wing Starfighter and Endor

My Analysis: I really love this set, mostly because I really love the B-wing. Unfortunately, I think this is the weakest of the three sets in the series, though it still might not be bad to pick up. The B-wing itself is a very popular vehicle, but I think that the current weird situation with the B-Wing UCS set may cause us a few problems. Because we haven't had a set for the snowspeeder or the Tantive IV for a few years, they may be a little “refreshed” in buyers minds making them want to buy them. The B-wing could be a little overshadowed by the bigger one. Of course, maybe that works the other way and people who can't get the UCS set will buy this very small one. I am not sure i can place exactly how it will matter..

Either way, I think this set is very cool. There are a lot of Endor sets coming out right now and I think that all of these sets are going to cause people to want to collect all the Endor sets. This, combined with people wanting to collect all of the B-wings, and collecting all of the planet series, will make sure this set is still a decent winner. Nothing great, but solid. Ignore it at your own risk.

Let's take a look at how some of the other retired B-wing sets have done:

• 6208 B-wing Fighter – 16.58% CAGR at about 3.5 times retail.
• 7180 B-wing at Rebel Control – 5.08% CAGR (Been around 13 years). Around 2 times retail.

One x-factor here does intrigue me. If you look at the B-wing, there are really no small sets. There are no B-wing Polybags and there are no Brickmaster B-wings or bigger sets that include a small B-wing. I think that could definitely work in this set's favor because the people who typically like the smaller sets will target this one as more unique. There is no polybag to compete with it.

My final thought on price would be to look for it at around $7. I think it might be a slight reach at $8, but it could be a big time sleeper because of the lack of another small similar set. Plus remember, B-wings are definitely a possibility in the new movies!

75011 Tantive IV and Alderaan

My Analysis: I think this one is really awesome. I love it when Lego takes a ship with huge intricate pieces and makes a small version of it, still with a great attention to detail. This one just looks really impressive. And it has 102 pieces which makes it one of the biggest of the planet series and definitely a great price per piece value at under $.10.

The ship itself is a really popular ship and has only be done twice. Yes, just like the B-wing, it has a big push for it in that there have been no polybags or battle packs, or anything of that size made for it. But past that, there hasn't been a mid range set ever done for this one either. Of the two made, one is a UCS set, and one is an exclusive play-set. Both had extremely high original price-tags and are way more now. To me, that is going to have a really big impact on this set. I really think there are a lot of people out there that like this ship, but don't have either of the bigger sets.

Alderaan itself is no terrible place to have as well. Think about all the kids that will have the Death Star by picking up the Tie Interceptor Planet series set. None of them will be able to wait to blow up Alderaan with it! The minifigure, while not exclusive, is only in the advent calender and the other Tantive sets. So there is a good chance that if this Tantive model is the first one some people will have, then this will also be the first of that minifigure they will get.

Let's look at the two Tantive sets and how they have done:

• 10198 Tantive IV – 9.59% CAGR sitting at almost 50% over retail.
• 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner – 11.97% CAGR sitting at almost 4 times retail.

Obviously these two ships have done fairly well. With all of this, I think this set will be the best of the planet series and one that every investor should actually look at, even if at retail. It is done really well, has a lot of pieces, and it is the best looking of the series to me. I think if you even get these at $9 in a sale, they will be a big steal. I think in a couple of years, they will be $30 each. And again, they are so small they take nothing to store!

Final Analysis: While none of the planet series seem to be good enough to shatter any records like 9465 The Zombies, I really think this line has a lot of sleeper potential. As I made clear in the earlier article, these sets will not be fully targeted by investors, but I think this series especially will be really popular among all types of builders and collectors. All three of these are very collectible ships, with two of them being the only small set made of that specific ship. Also, you can't just get one and not have all three. They are a series!

What will really decide Planet Series 4's fate will be the length of time they are on shelves. Currently they are about to come out and a series 5 has not been mentioned. Because of this, they could maybe stick around a little longer than the other ones have. While I think they are decent investments, I wouldn't go out the first day they come out and buy 100s of them. I could be totally wrong about how popular they are. And if they sit on shelves for over a year, they will have a lot of time to go down in price and lose some of the nice upside.

The fact is, however, that this is the most impressive full line of the series by far. Generally the rule of thumb for a series in a theme has been “the biggest set always does well”. Perhaps this will extend to this series in that “the best line of the series always does well”. As of now, my prediction is, it will.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 

The Forbidden Forest was a set that originally retailed for $ 12 in the USA, and for that price you got 4 cool minifigs (Voldemort, Hagrid, Harry and Narcissa Malfoy) as well as 64 pieces. Of these minifigures, the only one that is really exclusive (but not really expensive) is Narcissa Malfoy. Despite the fact the minifigures are not really that unique, the set was still a pretty good bang for your buck when all things are considered.

This set was retired around the end of last year, although you could still find it at some stores like Barnes and Noble. As far as its investment performance is concerned, the set has already more than doubled in value in a little over a 6 months, something that is not really surprising with sets within this price range. Let's now take a look at some of the trends this set has been displaying in over the past year or so.

The number of sets sold showcases the regular pattern that most sets follow, somewhat stable during the year with the huge spike in December. The really interesting data comes from the Values table, where you can clearly see the upward trend this set has been experience ever since it went EOL later 2012. It is pretty normal for sets to explode in value during the first few months after they are retired, and even after a couple of months of no growth this particular one is heading up once again.

This is a neat set that has already produced some pretty great percentage results for those that were wise enough to pick several while they were still available, but what about those of us who missed on this set, could it still have some more room to grow and make some decent profits?. Let's talk about that next.

The set itself is really not that interesting as it is basically just a LEGO built tree with some accessories, so that is certainly not going to be too appealing in the secondary market. The real stars here are the 4 minifigs that even if common (except Narcissa) are popular enough to carry this set into the $35 to $40 range in the medium to long term. What I find particularly interesting about this little set that I believe a lot of people will find appealing is that it gives the buyer access to some of the popular minifigs (Hagrid and Voldemort) that are only included in sets that at this point are much more expensive than this one. Someone with limited funds not willing to purchase figs individually will find this a nice alternative.

To conclude, I would definitely recommend investors to buy this set, but only if they are willing and able to buy several copies and wait a at least a year before getting rid of them. These small sets are only worth it to me if you are able to move a relatively large volume, as actual dollar profits tend to be quite small. If you already own the set, I would recommend holding onto it AT LEAST until this Holiday season, but a more desirable scenario would actually be selling them by the end of 2014 when most of the quick sellers have exited the market.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy