Welcome to the fourth installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. If you haven't read the previous articles, I suggest you start at the beginning and read Comicblast's initial articles here ($0.00 to $9.99) andhere ($10 to $24.99). The third installment can be read here ($25 to $49.99) and gives further background about the purpose of these articles and my approach to continuing the analysis.

[divider] Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:

• No insertion fee was included.
• 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay.
• Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate.
• 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal.

Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:

• 3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink.
• 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal.

** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $50 to $99.99 are as follows:

• In this price range, BrickLink pulls into a big lead with the number of sets that sold for higher.
• Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 14.66% vs 6.19%
• With fees, BL comes out ahead: 13.29% vs 10.68%

In the $50 to $99.99 MSRP price range, the picture is starting to change. BrickLink has a significant lead in terms of sets sold for more money but those that sell for more in their respective marketplace still have a decent advantage over the other.

Additional things to consider:

• If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess.
• There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price.
• eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price.

I'm going to give this round to BrickLink because more than twice as many sets sold for more money. Could this be because in this price range we are moving beyond the mom and pop buyers and into the group of buyers (AFOLs) who are aware of BrickLink? Wouldn't that favor higher prices on eBay? I guess not.

Welcome to the third installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. The purpose of this article is to compare the average sale prices of LEGO sets over the last 6 months. These numbers are the final sale prices, according to data acquired from BrickLink and BrickPicker from August 2013 to January 2014 (yes I realize that the January data isn't 100% complete, but I believe the impact will be minimal).

Comicblast's original blog post's can be found here ($0.00 to $9.99) and here ($10 to $24.99). The original intention of his blog articles was to simply compare the average selling price of 25 different sets. In the spirit of Comicblast's original attempt to create an unbiased list of sets, I perused the set lists from 2010-2013 and tried to pick sets that offered a variety of successes and failures in terms of resale value. Older sets are retired and newer ones are readily available at retail prices.

I have decided to take it one step further and look at what the advantage would be before and after calculating the fees a seller would need to pay to eBay, BrickLink and PayPal based on their typical rates. I realize this does not match everyone's selling situation (i.e. if you have an eBay store, you might pay less), but in general it should help to show which marketplace will earn you top dollars for your sets. Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:

• No insertion fee was included.
• 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay.
• Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate.
• 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal.

Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:

• 3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink.
• 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal.

** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $25 to $49.99 are as follows:

• In this price range, eBay holds an advantage in the number of sets that sell for more.
• Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 18.5% vs 5.9%
• With fees, BL comes out slightly ahead: 12.1% vs 11.4%

In the $25 to $49.99 MSRP price range, the picture isn't much different than the previous two ranges. Many sets don't sell for a significantly higher amount in either marketplace, but some do. If you are willing to sell in both, by choosing the right place to sell, you can make more money in this price range.

Additional things to consider:

• If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess.
• There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price.
• eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price.

I'm going to call this round a draw. If you have an eBay store, less fees means eBay would hold the advantage; however, considering that the Brickpicker values likely contain sales with free shipping, the numbers are potentially slightly inflated.

I tend to focus on bulk. Simple reason really. It's what I spend most of my investment resources on.  While I do have a small and slowly growing pile of boxed sets stashed where the seven year old Sherlock can't find them I will continue to make way more money on bulk lots for the foreseeable future.

While there are plenty of exceptions with most sets much of the value is tied to the minifigs. Bulk lots are no different, much of the value in any bulk lot is tied to whatever minifigs it happens to contain. Where the difference lies is the condition that they are found in. The pic below is of all the mini figures that I sorted out of a roughly 30 pound lot. And I apologize in advance for the picture quality.

Again that's all of them without any sorting (other than a Killer Croc I spotted him and had already listed him by this point.) When I sort figures the first thing I do is dump them all out. The square is just so you can judge the size.

Some of these are complete, some are striped to the torso, and many are in between. For a small pile like this I use two of the Lego sorting trays and just have at it. I also will toss all Star Wars figures and pieces their own box as I go. After about an hour this is what I had in my trays. And that's one hour with seven year old help. I'm normally much faster.

The top tray has most of the minifig pieces.  Hands by color, arms, heads by color. When sorting loose heads stick them together, it allows you to look at several at once. It's hard to see in the pic, but I've got them sorted boy/girl as well.  Next I have partial figs, then legs with any that are printed in their own spot, and finally torsos. The bottom tray is more of a catch all. I have a spot for Ninjago, Batman, Indiana Jones, shields, visors, hair, swords/knives, guns/arrows, 3 for hats/helmets, a random accessories area, and a spot for any accessories that go under the head. As I went I pulled out Star Wars and sorted some of them as well.

The top is a bunch of random Star Wars, the bottom are ones that I could sort by set quickly, and a whole bunch of battle droids. And yes the tray is from the inside of an Advent Calendar. Hey, it was free.

And lastly all the minifigs that were either complete or close to complete.

When I'm working on sets having all these guys stand up makes it sooo much easier to scan them all. Speeds the process up considerably. Then they all go back in a box to save space. So that's it, my patented quick sort method for minifigs. While I'm sure everyone has there own way of doing a sort like this, this method has worked well for me over the last few years. Now go get to sorting.  

This the eighth entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, Technic, and Friends themes and this time it’s a triple header!  I’m going to put three retired popular movie based themes up at the same time – Harry Potter, Indiana Jones, and Pirates of the Caribbean.

My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.

This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.  

Basic Information

I have gathered data on 84 sets from Brickpicker set pages across the three themes.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.

Of the 84 there are 53 Harry Potter (HP) sets, 17 Indiana Jones (IJ) sets, and 14 Pirates of the Caribbean (PotC) sets.

I can also tell you that of the 84 sets 7 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present. 2 for HP, 1 for IJ, and 4 for PotC.  

Pieces

The average piece counts per set are 322 pieces for HP, 353 for IJ, and 303 for PotC. 

Retail Price

For the sets with a retail price the averages are $35.58 for HP, $37.55 for IJ, and $48.69 for PotC.  Interestingly the PotC theme has the lowest average piece count but conversely the highest average price. 

Price Per Piece (PPP)

Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool.  The averages are $0.119 for HP, $0.106 for IJ, and $0.158 for PotC per piece.  Carrying through from the above metrics we can see PotC is well above the other two themes

Price Per Gram (PPG)

PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set. The average PPG measures are $0.058 for HP, $0.056 for IJ, and $0.044 for PotC.  This is a turnaround for the PotC results – what it most likely shows is that the PotC sets contained a far larger proportion of big Lego pieces compared to the other two themes.  This makes sense intuitively as PotC has a few ships with larger hull and other pieces.

Minifigure Count

Only 2 HP sets and 1 PotC set do not have a at least one minifigure.  The average minifigures per set are 3.56 for HP, 4.41 for IJ, and 3.57 for PotC.  All fairly high results, showing that minifigures played a large role in the marketing of these sets.

Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $9.98 per minifigure at retail price for HP, $8.51 for IJ, and $13.63 for PotC.   Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.  

Hello everybody,

Time is money as the old saying goes and that theory applies to Lego investing and reselling.

Allow me to introduce myself a little. I'm a critical analyst during work hours, a husband with beautiful kids in the weekend (of course) and ... English is my third language, so apologies for my grammar.  Lego was (and is again) one of my biggest passions as I picked it back up in 2012 after the traditional "Dark Age" which lasted more than a decade I'm not proud to admit. I've been reading the blogs of more than one site, listening to the videos of most renown Lego-connaisseurs. Most aspects of Lego are well covered on the web: set reviews for example have become a commodity. Some stuff was lacking. And since I've been growing some experience over the last couple of years, I thought it was time I tested some personal insights on the community. Please read this blog as story of me growing up as a Lego investor.

I hope the article will be somewhat different to what you've read until now... 

In my life, time has become the rarest commodity. I'm actually at a stage at work where instead of asking for a salary raise, I negotiate extra flexibility and free time to do other (obviously more) interesting stuff. Image that you have to manage two kids, a 50h/W job, family events every second weekend, garden/house  improvements... When would I find time for my  Lego bricks, games, sports and books I love so much?! It seems therefore paramount to allocate my time extremely effectively. Chose  my own priorities carefully:  boss - wife - kids - hobbies - family: in what order? And what if I started a new project? I'd have to do that even more efficiently!

As far goes theory, but what did I do? I started the "brilliant" idea of buying second hand Lego sets at steep discounts and resell through Bricklink for a "fat" profit margin... Was this clever? Nooooooo! Looking back at the plan, it seems pretty laughable now. (No offense to anybody - this is my personal experience on paper)

So I bought big lots from people who wanted to get rid of all their sets at once when they enter the dark age. Using the web to find second hand deals and driving from one place to another to get that  maximum discounts. After cleaning up the wares, I post them on BrickLink - easy money, I thought.

Let me tell you quickly why that was a bad plan:

TRUST: 

You cannot trust the second hand market. 80% of lots I bought were incomplete. 99% of the sets have bricks that are damaged or marked. Selling incomplete sets on Bricklink is next to impossible and requires to discount sharply. Worse are the astute sellers (on the 50 deals I made, at least 10%) who fake their ignorance and leave out that one rare flag, antenna and/or replaced that expensive hair piece of a minifig... You can't check everything even when you buy on location. Luckily I rarely had orders shipped, but the ones that did arrive by mail were even worse off.

Did you know "black plume (code: 4502a)" in 6066 Camouflaged Outpost ... is worth 20% of the set? I do now, after buying that set on a local market without checking the presence of that little black plastic ornament. 

I bought 6087 Witch's Magic Manor another day for 15E (50% discount to BL 6m sold price). Four elements were missing: Red Dragon Wing, the cape of the which and two shields. I had to order from three different stores to complete the set...

COMPETITION: 

As a buyer on second hand platforms, I am up against others who have more time and know-how. Any auction on Ebay was scrutinized by at least 50 other Lego-investors. I know for a fact of colleagues who spend their lunch breaks surfing for deals. And how many pensioners aren't sorting pieces and stacking them away just to make a day go by more quickly? How can I compete with them? I would need a sorting machine to beat them... Maybe I should've bought only during the Summer, hoping the biggest crocodiles are on holiday?

And again, I speak from personal experience... There was that "huuuuuge " star wars lot which I though would be an easy doubler/tripler. The discoveries I made were quite nasty. The seller had mixed Lego and Megablocks together to have the lot look larger. Some figs were missing, many smaller rare parts too... It took me several months to get everything sorted and as I didn't have the exact list of all sets that were junked together in those boxes the work of assembling the right sets was hard. The follow-up process of ordering the missing rarer pieces just was a nightmare. Expensive hard to find items are systematically spread over different shops. Therefore duplication of shipping fees is unavoidable. Costs, time and effort rise exponentially. A very good reason not to buy that second hand stuff...and I learnt it the hard way. After my family had waded for weeks through piles and piles of bricks, I  decided to throw the towel in the ring and make a discount clearance. The final P&L of the transaction will never be clear. There were so many "moving parts" and costs that it wasn't looking good. 

PRICE: Buy cheap! 

Nothing new there. Apart from finding the sets with the highest potential, the talk of the town on Lego-forums is about "the best" deals.  Obviously I knew that too. So as a rule I started buying second hand at a minimum 40% discount. (ha... ha...ha...) Pretty soon,as I bought almost everything during the first month like a donkey pooping cash, I raised the hurdle to a steeper 60%.But that angered some sellers  who  treated me of opportunist ( = crook) ... I don't like to be that treasure hunter who rips off the lazy adolescent or confused grandma . A good deal in my book is one both the seller and buyer can be satisfied about. Bargaining on the second hand market just didn't seem to be my thing apparently. But if you have the elephant skin, good for you I guess.

During the Summer I sell used sets for some cash and a good chat on the local street market. There are three king of buyers: First are those who love Lego from their childhood and buy for their kids and get a fair price. Second the ones who think Lego is good quality but too expensive for their hyperkinetic kids. And last them who ask: '50$ for everything?'...

I count myself in category 1. 

DISCIPLINE:

Parts need to be clean, checked, counted, listed and packed. Without making mistakes! It seems I'm not the perfectionist who can re-assemble sets with 2000+ pieces. If a (in most cases Dutch ;)) buyer complains about one or two pieces and asks for a refund, I can't be 100% sure he bluffing. Standard reply is a 5% discount, in order to close the deal and move on. And that mean a lower ROI of course.

Did you notice that light blue grey becomes light grey after being exposed to the sun? How can I be sure the old castle sets were in fact complete? This uncertainty is a source of frustration for the buyer and seller. And that makes the business modem of reassembling used sets unreliable

  SPACE

My house is no castle. Space = value. And assemblage and sorting requires a large table and lots of boxes/stacks. It's cold in my basement and there are no windows. It's just not a great place to be. The spiders couldn't disagree more. Second, even though I have success in selling used Lego-sets on the local toy-market, it requires them to be built and showcased. But that takes up even more space! And did I already mention the BrickLink buyers who demand a picture of the set to judge of its quality? That means three steps more: build it first, take a picture, decompose it again and only then box it back... sigh...

Selling used sets on Bricklink? Not for me thanks. Many buyers are too demanding in my opinion. "This white has yellowed, the grey is light blue, there's a scratch, the box is dented, ... Seems easier to assemble and sell at the local toy-markets during the Summer. Because these sets take up large chunks of storage space which I'd rather fill with new sets, that process needs to be accelerated. I price myself below the market, take the cash and reinvest in higher ROI new sets. And by the way: MISB take dust on the box, used sets have it all over the bricks.

DEMAND - SUPPLY:

When strolling through the second hand websites, I noticed the police and fire sets were really cheap. Pretty quickly I could build a super safe town full of police stations and fire departments. But when I wanted to sell them, things became quite complicated. Kids want the latest police station from the folder. Adults have already one set for their town. No need for a second. When I had figured that out, and tried to bid similar (50%) discounts on star war sets or Technic boxes, systematically I got outbid! And the "really attractively priced" exclusive set offers were scams. By choosing to pay cash at reception, I avoided those traps.

When the rarest sets went systematically above the BrickLink price, a little bell started ringing. The laws of supply and demand were working. LEGO on the www is an efficient market.

MATH:

The net margin on my sales were disappointing. I bought sets on average at a 45% discount. After ordering the missing parts that margin goes to 30%. Take the additional discount I offer,  there's only 20% left. The size of the average used set is in general also smaller as I cannot rapidly check and sort that many loose parts. That means reverse scale effects (the more valuable the set, the harder it gets), making it a low volume low margin affair...

I understand that parting sets is a very popular and to some a lucrative business. Others re-assemble Green Grocers, Cafe Corners and Market Streets to make the extra bucks. I have the utmost respect for the $/hour return they accept. 

And this brings me to the crux of the article:

"ROI"? NO!

N.I.C.H.E.: YES!!!

The lesson I have learnt from all these misadventures  is now very clear in my mind. I will never again go for return on investment. This is just a flawed metric. Every purchase has to be ranked according to the "NICHE": the Net Incoming Cash per Hour and Effort

Let's take for example Viking set n° 7019 I bought at 60$ last year. Getting it was an hour drive. Another second hour of sorting, ordering missing parts, paying, tracking, completion. And it's not even sold yet. It has been sitting on Bricklink in its original box for more than a year at the cheapest rate of the lot, laughing at me and taking a large chunk of space in the stockroom. In fact, it cannot be stacked vertically nor at the bottom of other sets because the box was opened and is therefore weaker.

Analysis:

Expected ROI: 50% = 30/60 = great!!

Expected cash return? 30$. = less great

Cash /hour invested = 30$ / 2 = 15$ (that's below the minimum wage in Germany!)

Net Incoming Cash per Hour x Effort = 15$ / 3 = 5$

Remember: This set has taken me at least 3x more time & effort to get ready and sold than any MISB.

So I've become wiser. Maybe not clever yet, but at least learning fast. I respect a new set of rules before I buy anything: 

1. BUY LOW (you knew that) and LARGE: this way the cash value is high and the NICHE goes up.
2. BUY sets with structural demand traits that ship easily. Make sure the end market is large. As I'm writing, I'm not sure Hero, Chima, Ninjago, Mindstorms have deep enough end markets. Star Wars, Technic, Friends, City, LOTR have it. This is food for another article. Time is value.
3. Don't look at ROI. Do I like selling polybags? No. Are these ROI interesting? No. I haven't calculated the minimum cash amount a set should offer as I haven't set the minimum threshold for my NICHE yet. But I can guarantee it is higher than 5$.
4. Take the NICHE strategy and maximize it. Make up your own personal mind what factors you attribute to "effort". It should take into account: storage, quality, risk, insurance, end markets, shipping complexity (on extremely large sets)...

Conclusion

Did it seem to you as well that this article would never end? Well that's because there are so many factors I underestimated when I started lego-reselling. What seemed to be low hanging fruit - reselling used sets - appeared to be a rotten idea from the start.  Through this article I hope other "start-up" investors like me will save some of that precious time.

Thanks for hanging in there and good Luck Brickvesting!

Many of us grew up on LEGO City sets.  With each passing year, LEGO seems to produce a new Fire or Police Station, yet many of these sets still appreciate very well in the LEGO secondary market.  Let's take a look at some City sets that might do well in 2014...

First, and in all fairness, I have to tell you I'm Canadian - BUT - that when I head to the US I drive north.  Yes, I live in Windsor, Ontario,  Stephen Colbert's least favorite city on the map.  Being Canadian means that a few sets on this list might not be as readily available in your neck of the woods but as of early January 2014 most are still in stock at TRU.CA, although if you think US TRU prices are bloated, I warn you to check their Canadian counterpart whilst sitting down lest you crap your pants while standing (which everyone knows is better than doing so whilst sitting) - yes that is MSRP for TRU here.  Some of the sets on this list are also available at other retailers in Canada, so I would surmise that some stores somewhere close to you might have some of these.

Why City?  I know I write about Friends a lot, and I came out of my dark ages largely because I was blown away by Star Wars UCS sets, but as a child City scenes were always my favorite.  Trains, houses, buildings, etc.  Especially trains, and trains need destinations.  With all the sub themes that have been done since I was a child, today's young builders (or me, a middle-aged builder) have so many more awesome options than when I was a lad.  Another reason for City?  A healthy CAGR of over 20%, which is actually really impressive considering that TLG releases so many City sets.  Obviously with that many sets there are likely some real winner and some duds.  I touched on the Coast Guard theme a little in a different post, so I'm not going to re-write about them here, but suffice to say I still like the three biggest sets in that sub theme to appreciate nicely.  If you see any of these three with a nice discount, I'd grab them.

With retailers seemingly slowly restocking it is hard to say what you'll have access to in your neighborhood, but whatever City sets get stocked are a good bet to see sales and possibly clearance before the summer wave of City: Arctic sets (I think the sled dogs are awesome) and that is when I'm targeting these sets (as well as any other promo/sale/deal I can find).  Perhaps I can convince you to do likewise?

Lego 4204 The Mine

Target Level: Very High

As the largest set in this sub theme, the gold mine is, to me, a very solid investment pick.  Lego has only done this sub theme once, and anything unique has a lot going for it, as well as the fact that this set features a ton of playability as well as displayability. (yes, that is a word now).  Construction-type sets have done pretty well - check out the numbers on the 2009 Construction sub theme, and I think this Mining theme correlates loosely with this theme.  Essentially, the two largest sets are approaching plus 100% from retail (7633 Construction Site and 7632 Crawler Crane).  The Mine did very, very well during its first Christmas, as third party Amazon sellers were selling this for $177.  This Christmas was solid but unspectacular, as the sets are largely gone from brick and mortar locations and can be found mostly online.  Demand won't be as high as some other sets, but you likely don't have as much competition from other investors as City sets tend to not get much talk on the forums.  Even now, Amazon.co.uk has them 31% off (although I picked up six before Christmas during the 40% off sale, which basically made them 50% off Canadian retail) so I think there will definitely be opportunities to pick these up at a sizable discount.

Target Price: 30% off US retail

Target Sale Price: This 2012 set is likely going to be phased out for the upcoming Arctic sub theme, giving it a roughly two year run, and I'd think by 2016 my target sale price would be $180-$200.  It seems unlikely for this to get a reboot anytime soon, so I think you probably have 3-4 years from now without worrying of remakes.

Lego 3368 Space Center

Target Level: High

This set, unlike those in the Mining sub theme, is already on the way out, so much so that the door is literally hitting this set on the butt as it escapes.  This is still available at TRU.CA and probably can be found at mom & pop type places or lesser known retailers than the big three or four.  Amazon.co.uk had these on for thirty pounds just before Christmas and sold out quickly, so if you do see these on sale hesitation might result in missing out entirely.  While space has a long history in Lego lore, this is the only City/Space sub theme, and since it sold out at S&H prices have already started to rise.

Target Price: You can get this now for $89.99 + tax at TRU.ca, but they haven't sold out of them at this price so I'm inclined to wait for at least 20% off and/or a good promotion that gets you a free polybag.  Getting this at US retail ($69) or lower is pretty solid.

Target Sale Price: You won't have to wait long on this one.  If you can score a good deal you could probably try to list it as a BIN in the 2014 holiday season.  Space is always popular with kids and there shouldn't be too much competition from too many rival sellers (I don't think I've read one forum thread about this sub theme or set).  For the first holiday season post-EOL I don't think $130-140 is outlandish, and I'd feel comfortable saying another $20-25 for the next Christmas.  The only danger is that space is popular and I'd expect more space sets of some kind sooner rather than later.

Lego 4440 Forest Police Station

Target Level: High-Medium

I normally don't see a huge amount of growth in Police-based sets because they are so numerous, but I can tell you anecdotally that I easily sold my Robbers Hideouts and Police Dog Vans on kijiji in November and December, so retired police sets do seem to do better than you (even I) would think.  Seeing this, (the colored Canadian money) I'm now pretty hot on this set.  It has a lot going for it - a police station that likely won't get a redo anytime soon, a cool bear and a very interesting design (at least to me).  Sold out at S&H, time is running out to get this set.

Target Price: I'm comfortable at this point with anything in the $50s, although once a set sells out on S&H it can be tough to find good deals as panic buying sets in.  As time goes by, you might even be tempted in the low $60s.

Target Sale Price: $150.  I think $100 by this Christmas is realistic, (which is actually Canadian retail!) but it will probably be at least another year (plus) beyond that to hit around double retail.

Lego 4207 City Garage

Target Level: High

Considering this was on sale at S&H recently and didn't sell out immediately, I was wondering if it was simply a case of investors not having enough post-Christmas funds or perhaps lack of knowledge.  The last City Garage set from 2009 sells for $200, even with this garage set providing competition at retail!  It is also a TRU exclusive, and now that S&H has sold out, it is likely the only place you're going to get your hands on them.  To me, that makes this set a no-brainer.

Target Price: Now that S&H is sold out, US TRU lists these at $139.  I think that is crazy!  I think a BOGO 50%, possibly with a coupon or promo is the best way to add these to your portfolio now.  TRU seems to often have their exclusives for some time after S&H, but if a good sale does come along, it might be your last chance to get these below retail.

Target Sale Price: The old garage sells for around $200, and this garage should do just as well, although inflation and a higher retail price might make this a $220 set or so a couple years after retirement.  Since it could move to 'retired product' at any time, I'd be on the lookout for a good TRU sale as soon as possible.

Lego 60020 Cargo Truck

Target Level: Medium-Low

I've snagged a couple of these from amazon.co.uk recently at 30% off UK retail, but I think there is plenty of time to add more to my portfolio.  I'm actually inclined to think they'll eventually be 40% off for a short while and that is a price I would no be able to say no to!  Especially because it isn't that large of a set but is $50+tax (13% for me!) in Canada at retail.

Target Price: $25 or less (I'd go as high as $30 for Canadians)

Target Sale Price: $80 or better.  Like the other Cargo sets, this will likely be available for quite some time, so load up when you see them on clearance but I'd wait for something better than just 20% off.

Lego 60021 Cargo Heliplane

Target Level: Medium-Low

I stocked up on these when amazon.co.uk had them for twenty pounds.  They shipped two to a box and not one was assessed customs fees, so I was pretty pleased with myself to get them at this price, even though I know I'll have to wait a long time for this set to retire.  I'd only bite on more if they were cheap enough.

Target Price: I like these at anything under $35 for Canada, probably under $30 for the US

Target Sale Price: I see this as a $100 set more than a year after retirement.

Lego 60022 Cargo Terminal

Target Level: High

I'm targeting this a little more than the other 2013 sets because I think this has the best chance of being a set that sells out during the 2014 holiday season and can be sold and then purchased again in early 2015.  Planes are always popular - even promotional planes and small City plane sets seem to do well.  The last City Airport (3182) sells for double retail, and I'm confident betting that this set has the same potential once retired.  That being said, it has a long haul until retirement, so I'm looking for very good sales/deals/promotions before I bite.

Target Price: 30% off or more, so $70 in the US.  In Canada, I'd go as high as about $80 or so.

Target Sale Price: I think this is easily a $180-$200 set after retirement.  I think it might be possible to sell this for $130 or so in the fall of 2014 if it sells out at S&H and other major retailers, which it might.

Lego 60026 Town Square

Target Level: Medium-Low

This set is pretty nifty and large City sets typically do very well after retiring.  The reason for the low target level is that this set likely has anywhere from 12-18 months on shelves, both physical and metaphorical online shelves.  I add it to the list because it is definitely a set I would grab with a very good promotion, even though I generally wouldn't want to tie up too much capital in a set that probably can't be sold for a really nice profit for two and a half to three years at the earliest.

Target Price: Under $100.  This will be easier for US residents but I'm committed to getting it at this price one way or another.  Luckily I live ten minutes from the border so if I can't get a really good sale in Canada, I'll have to go north to the US.

Target Sale Price: $200+.  This is a huge set and I think more than $200 seems reasonable after it retires.  As it is relatively new, that is likely 18 months or more away, so no rush to get this unless the deal is amazing.

The great thing about City sets is that there are a lot of them, the theme is very popular and it seems because it is so widespread that different retailers have solid deals on these sets at different times.  I think City sets are also (I'm speculating, here) the most opened and played with sets, or at least among the leaders, which means not a lot of NIB sets sitting in basements across the world.  It pays to target the cream of the crop, if you will, but I'd advise picking an entry price point you can live with and stick to it.  Plenty of others that aren't on this list would get my attention with a big enough discount, but these are sets I think will really help diversify your portfolio and make some steady and solid gains.

This the seventh entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, and Technic themes and this time it’s the turn of Friends!

My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.

This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.

Basic Information

For the Friends theme I gathered data on 78 sets from Brickpicker set pages.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.  I’ve even included info on the new 2014 sets that have been announced so far.

For the Friends theme I’m going to split the analysis into Promotional/Animal collectible polybags vs the rest subthemes. There are 21 Promo/Polbags and 57 Other sets.  This helps separate the info out so that you can compare polybags with their like, and other sets aren’t muddied by the low averages the small polybag sets will have.  Totals will give us the overall results for the whole theme.

I can also tell you that of the 78 sets 4 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present.  

Pieces

The average piece count per set is 156 pieces.  When split by Promo/Poly and Other sets there is the expected difference present with 35 and 201 average piece counts respectively.

Retail Price

The 74 sets with a retail price have an overall average of $18.35 for retail price.  This is split to $4.54 for Promo/Poly sets compared to $18.35 for Other Friends sets.

  Price Per Piece (PPP)

Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool. 

The overall average for the 74 sets is $0.14 per piece.  That seems a little high compared to the conventional benchmark of $0.10 per piece, especially given there is no license fees for the theme.  New moulds and colours and new minifigure types probably push the budget up a bit for this Lego line.  Or TLG is just making a good margin!  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.17 and for Other sets the result is $0.13.

Price Per Gram (PPG)

PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set.

There were 7 sets that I could not find a weight for, as they are 2014 releases so info is hard to et.  That means we have 67 sets to play with for this section.  The 67 sets the overall average PPG is $0.10.  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.162 and for Other sets the result is $0.079.

Minifigure Count

Of the 78 sets 56 of them have at least one minifigure.  The average across all 78 sets is 1.03 minifigures per set.  Promo/Poly sets average 0.29 for and the Other sets the average is 1.30 minifigures per set.  Those are fairly low averages.  Many of the Poly/Promo sets don’t have a minifigure and instead have a small animal included.  Also many of the larger sets come with only 1 minifigure, only 19 of the sets contain 2 or more, with only 3 containing 3 and the largest – 3185 Riding Camp with 4.

Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $17.90 per minifigure at retail price.  Again, quite high – those special Friends minifigures must have a fairly high production cost.

Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.

So its no secret that the 9468 Vampyre Castle has a big following on this site and a lot of people have stashed them away hoping for the killer gains that all the awesome Lego castle's seem to bring. Around November, we were all finishing buying out Toys R Us, the Lego Shops near us (on clearance), and Amazon while salivating over what was to come. Suddenly, Toys R Us orders somewhere near a million for each store to restock for a huge sale. The Vampyre Castle (9468) then showed up on ToysRUs.com as "Our Exclusive" and the debate and panic ensued. Should we return all the sets we bought? How long more will it be around? Will it affect the investment value? Is it worth buying anymore as they go on sale?

All of these are very legitimate questions. So I decided to write up a best and worst case scenario, some predictions, and some advice on what to do and think about this set. All of this is purely speculation - please do not assume I "know" anymore than one you. Just offering my opinions on the subject - as that's all we have at the moment.

The Set's Original Investment Potential

Obviously, no one knows what this set would have done if it had disappeared and fully retired as we expected it in December like the Helm's Deep. However, we have a good idea where this set was headed looking at what was going on with eBay during that time period. Here is a look at where this set was in November:

BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle...October - $108.29

BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle... November - $102.32

Last 10 eBay Listings(average) in November for the 9468 Vampyre Castle - $108.90

So this set was already selling above retail without being retired. The end of November was right in the middle of the TRU 79.99$ sale (when they restocked at each store mysteriously) and this set was still holding its value fairly well. There was a ton of demand as well with around 150 being sold in October to November. This set was starting to look like it could make it to $175 or $200 by next year. But the TRU restock scared a lot of us. Argument ensued with some still on board, others just slowing down, and others yelling "return!" and retreating from the set.

What Has Been the Effect So Far?

I was really curious to see what the "Real" value of this set was after Christmas. We all know sets inflate during Christmas and can sometimes make us think a set is worth a lot more than it actually is. I consider a sets "Real" value (obviously you can get a lot more for it) to be what it receives from 7 day auctions that don't end at night and don't only have one bid. I took the last 10 from this set after January (they are still selling quite frequently) following these rules:

Vampyre Castle 9468 Average Sold Price: $101.45

Honestly it doesn't look all that bad! There were several auctions with quite a few bids and there were more than 10 sold as Buy It Now auctions as well, so there is still a great demand for the set even as most people lick their wounds from the Christmas season. On the other hand, it's possible retirement may have alerted a lot of people that wanted the set and never bought it. Those may be grabbing them now somewhat slowly simulating the panic buying we normally see with a set's retirement. Lots of questions...

Worst Case Scenario

If you have  a lot of these (I am in the middle at 10 - I sold 6 during Christmas as I restocked from TRU) you may want to cry after this. Feel free to skip on to to the next section to keep your day going great! The Vampyre Castle seems to be a TRU exclusive now. For lack of Halloween sets, TRU (At least in the US) decides to keep it for several years seeing that the LegoShop is now out of it and it alone is the retailer carrying the set. Boosting TRU, people cannot find the set anywhere else and start paying $129.99 at TRU keeping the set there for the long haul as one of it's best sellers. Eventually the set finally does retire without any fanfair or panic at all 2-3 years after expected. The price takes a slight jump as people realize it's gone, but stalls quickly as the demand and love for the set has started to die out as people forget about it and the theme. The price stays right around $120 as investors finally decide to cut their loses and dump all of their sets to just try and get the money they paid out of them. The fear of God is put into every investor that ever sees TRU restock a set near retirement remembering this as a huge hit against Lego investing everywhere.

Best Case Scenario

Obviously this one is going to be much more preferred by most of us here: Though TRU restocked the set in late November, it exhausted all stock in doing so. They have one more big sale, marking it down to $80 again and we all grab 2-3 more just for good measure. Suddenly, with the swiftness of the Wolverine Chopper, the set is gone. Panic ensues immediately as investors and collectors realize the set just disappeared.  The set jumps to $150 in a mere few weeks on Ebay and approaches $200 by the end of the year, allowing all of us to double our money within just a short period of time.

What's Realistic?

I for one believe that, while this became a TRU exclusive, its still about to be gone. First off, a few of these sets, the Scientist 9465 and the Mummy 9462 have both already retired. This one is obviously next as it has somehow been discounted to $25 on the Lego website though already being out of stock. It has officially retired in a few other regions as well.

ToysRUs may keep it on for a while as their exclusive, but the set is still selling at a pretty good pace. None of the 3 TRU's around me have restocked as it has started to dwindle. They aren't moving particularly fast at $130, but I think they will still be sold out soon enough. All of these other sets in this line are listed as TRU exclusives as well, and none of them have been restocked in a long time at all the TRU's I have been to lately. The Vampyre Castle is the only one at the majority of them that is left.

Even if it does, the last several months of data on Ebay has proved that people love this set. I think the fact that Lego has not indicated doing more Monster Fighters almost helps this one's cause. It will not be redone and is still the only "haunted castle" we really have in the line. The Haunted House sticking around bodes well for this set as well - people can not forget about the theme if the best set of it is still in stores (and a display in a lot of them as well).

Though I would agree Toys R Us has put a slight dent in this sets investment value, the lack of other competing sets on the current market, or even the secondary market, this set is still a winner. You are taking a chance it will be around for another year, but I just can't see it continuing past that. So far it hasn't put too much of a dent in the sets value, and especially if you got these for $80 or less, you aren't taking a huge gamble as I don't think there is anyway that this set doesn't hit $130 or $140 the moment it finally is gone.

My recommendation is to hold tight. I don't recommend buying the set at retail or over (if you see it for $80, jump!), but I think the ones you have should stay with you. The set is still a big winner in my eyes and I don't think this completely changes that. As we are currently seeing with the Fire Brigade, even with the most crazy stocked set there is, we are still in the midst of a time where Lego is so popular that the panic buying of a set that seems to be flooding the market can still make a good buck.

Just be patient and believe. Box them up and don't look at them. You will feel better about just getting your money out of them in the long run than if you sell now, and watch it soar into the sky shortly after.

Look at her, isn’t she a marvel!

I stumbled upon this set looking back over a few of the older sets in the City theme.  It caught my eye as something I would have loved to have played with when I was a kid, so much play opportunity for a young lad.  Then after looking at sets info page here on Brickpicker the CAGR and secondary market pricing history captured my attention.

The first thing is that the set boasts a very impressive CAGR of 22.6%, that puts it ahead of all but one of the entire Star Wars UCS sets!

Then if you look at the pricing graphs you see this: Flat or even dipping value for the last year at least on the pricing graph, on a set still maintaining 26.5% CAGR – interesting!  I guess the volumes are a little low with only 9 sold over the year but that should still be enough to gauge any price movements if present.

To examine this further we can look down to the Performance Over Time table:

That to me presents a very interesting view of this sets performance.  In the last two years the price for the set has actually dropped slightly by 11%.  This means it was priced at $143.44 in Nov-2011.  That would mean the set had a CAGR at that point of 41.83%!  Furthermore if we take the assumption that the set had a retail shelf life of 2 years as is the generally accepted average we can start the CAGR calculation baseline at 2008 rather than 2006.  This would mean in the 3 years from 2008 to 2011 the set had a CAGR of a phenomenal 79.05% and a full ROI of 474%, and that’s before even considering a cheaper purchase price via discounts that no doubt would have been on offer at the time!

We can look at the changes in prices more visually in the graph below:

Keep in mind that the time scale is not linear as you approach recent periods.

“So what” you may asked, “how is this relevant to investing decisions I make today?”  Well aside from being just an incredible piece of data and information to admire in its own right, there is perhaps a phenomenon at work here that this may be a prime example of.

After writing several set reviews and a few blogs in the past year I’ve noticed many sets seem to plateau in secondary market price at around 4-5 times their original retail price.  This set hit 5.7 and has dropped back to 5.1.  To me this makes intuitive sense.  The collector or consumer buying the set on the secondary market has a hard time justifying paying 5 times the retail of an older set they missed out on.  Once you start to get into that price territory the set competes against other demands for the buyers money such as newer retail Lego sets, other EOL sets that haven’t appreciated as much, used sets,  the ability to ‘Bricklink’ the parts, and many other things people want/need to spend their cash on.

It takes a special set with very high demand comparative to supply in order to push past that barrier.  The average to good sets all seem to hit a peak and flatline or fall away.  Sure some experience a second wind growth spurt but most do not.

This sort of info may help provide a piece of the information puzzle when deciding how long to hold onto investments I your portfolio.  Unless you are convinced of a coming second surge of growth you may be best advised to divest any sets that show signs of flattening growth once the reach around 4 times their retail price.  

[box type="info" ]This blog follows on from my previous blogs (May, July, September, and October) presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.[/box] Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:

• I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension
• Information is based on US prices only
• Not all sets across all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though.
• I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know
• The Last Rank column indicates changes in ranking from the last Top 20 Blog (Oct data)

  One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)

Almost a completely clean slate again, made up of entirely new entrants and that’s not really a surprise given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next.  2175 Wyplash stays on the list jumping up 11 places to take top spot.  The recently retired Ninjago set is doing quite nicely.  76000 Arctic Batman also manages to cling to a position on the monthly list. It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:   Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from May 2013 )

3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop gets bumped from the top spot of the 6 month returns list tumbling 6 places thanks to a return of -14% in the last month as no doubt investors look to take profits. 6865 Captain America Cycle jumps to top spot with continued excellent price growth since its retirement mid 2013.  Will it continue that run? Lots of new entrants again, some with pretty low volumes, though others are there that really deserve their position.   2175 Wyplash comes in at number 3 thanks to taking that top spot for monthly growth in the section above.  5882, 70107, and 3939 all new entrants straight into the top 5 on the back of solid demand.  A couple of other wave 1 Friends sets, 4529 Iron Man, and 21001 John Hancock Center are also notable new entrants to the top 20 6 monthly growth list.   One Year Growth (change in MarketPrice from November 2012)

6808 Galaxy Trekkor still at the top but can be discounted due to extremely low volumes, though there are plenty of others that command respect. The well publicized 9465 Zombies regains a little ground after recent slips.  4529 Iron Man takes a big leap up 10 spots to number 3.  A few of the sets on the list look like they were 2012 releases that have now been around for a year and make the time criteria and have experienced that post EOL jump.  Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.   Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from November 2011)

Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods.  21001 John Hancock Center gained another 15% in the month and that was good enough to push it back into top spot (was there in Sep as well).  Boy I’d love to turn the clock back 2 years and grab a few of those for a 266% ROI ! 7936 Level Crossing is also an interesting set.  It was number one on this list back in May & July.  It then hit a flat spot, dropping to number 19 in September and off the list in October, but it’s now back in at number 4 thanks to another spurt of growth.  Maybe people are expanding their train set layouts for Xmas?    Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP)

Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989. 246 Santa and Sleigh make a return for the festive season.  This old school set from 1977 had over 30 sales in the month at a value far higher than the original $1.99 MSRP (though we probably should adjust for 35 years of inflation!) Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…   Conclusions These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs. It will be interesting when the December data is released to see if set have maintained some of their ‘form’.  Plus the Xmas effect which is probably already present in some of the November data should come into full swing.  This can be both a positive and a negative for set values as FcB demonstrated in a couple of blog posts. I’ve only given a cursory analysis of the lists themselves and would like to leave it to you on how best to interpret the results.  The numbers should speak for themselves and I’d like to hear your take on them in the comments below.

There are a lot of great reasons to get into polybags; sometimes they show up in your Lego orders for free or after buying enough product, sometimes you see a nice box of them in a store with a sale or clearance price tag and wonder if there is any value there.  Sometimes you see them being discussed on Brickpicker or another Lego forum and simply decide you *must* obtain a certain polybag because it is pretty darn cool or fits perfectly into your Lego MOC.  Whatever your reason, I'd like to outline a few strategies to use for buying, listing, packing and selling these little guys.  I've found that with a little research, some hard work and time, you can get a really solid ROI% (return on investment) for each little poly.  With these attributes plus volume, you can add a decent total profit to your Lego investing bottom line.

Buying

 If you read my other polybag article, covering the 2013 polybags in a hauntingly beautiful photo retrospective, you'll probably conclude that the best bags of 2013 came from S&H offers or video game pre-orders (Elrond was hot a couple years ago for this very reason) so it can be tough to amass a large number.  That being said, the obvious thing to do is make your S&H purchases well-planned around good promotions.  At times I've made purchases without looking too carefully at upcoming promotions and end up blowing part of my Lego budget and getting a so-so promotional polybag when I could have waited and gotten, say, a VW Camper.  I've also found (at least in Canada) that TRU consistently has the most promotions with free polybags if you buy enough.  I know a lot of folks dislike TRU for their ridiculous mark-ups, but sometimes it pays to shop there.  (Best promo of 2013 was spend $30 on Superhero sets and get a free Robin poly, which, at the time, could be sold for $25+, making your LEGO almost free!).  You need to also keep up on the forums to see where polybags are being spotted at a variety of large retailers.  It seems even previously 'exclusive' polybags can show up months later somewhere else in a clearance aisle.  Hunting polybags this way is a lot of fun, and it keeps me occupied when my wife is shopping for other non-essential things like food & clothing (as opposed to Lego)

So you watch your promotions, check out your local stores regularly and still aren't getting enough poly-action in your life - what to do?  I recommend bulk buying.  As mentioned above, in different markets and at different stores, it seems folks can always seem to find things on sale that you can't.  Some of these folks choose to see in lots of 5, 10, 20 or more, looking to make a quick flip without the pain of many, many trips to a mailbox, oodles of envelope licking and the like. (Personally, I derive great satisfaction from envelope licking, but to each their own) If you are willing to buy a lot of 20 and sell them slowly over the next few months one at a time, you can probably make some scratch, especially if you pick a poly that has a nice minifig or comes from a popular theme.

Another great way to grab polys is from the United Kingdom.  The Daily Mail used to run regular promotions where our friends across the pond could essentially trade in newspapers for Lego!  After one of these promotions, there are usually quite a few quick flippers looking to sell bulk lots, and by buying bulk the shipping costs per unit remain quite low.  My best buys from Daily Mail promotions were Zombie Coffin Cars, Hawkeye with Hero Gear, Uruk-Hai's and such.  At one time my wife was giving me raised-eyebrow looks of derision when a couple hundred polybags were in my basement, but they've sold so well that she doesn't complain anymore (about Lego polybags - this does not include complaining about other Lego-related issues).  I'm not sure when the next promotion is, but I'll be keeping an eye on it!  I also keep an eye out for polys that are only available in certain countries/regions and try to find a bulk lot to bring to Canada where I can offer free & fast shipping on 'rare' polys.

Listing

 I almost exclusively sell through ebay, although I'm happy to sell through other channels it seems that I get most of my sales through the 'bay.  I believe in Buy it Now listings for items like polybags.  First, the anecdotal evidence I seen in researching the other polybag article tells me that starting auctions low seems to generally result in lower (on average) prices. If you still want to run an auction but start with an opening bid close to your minimum, you're likely wasting your time - if you price really well, you'll know the high end of what people will pay for your polybag and you're unlikely to start a bidding frenzy.  You'll also have a tough time starting a bidding frenzy for all but the rarest of polybags because you'll have plenty of competition on the market, all of which makes auctions not really worth it in my experience.

I like to list from more than one account.  My wife has an account of her own and sells her own stuff, but I often get her to list polys for me.  If I have a lot of a particular set I like to list it in two places, one with free shipping (in Canada) and the other with a lower price + shipping.  For some reason, some buyers seem to prefer one or the other, even though they ultimately both cost exactly the same.  I like to give choice, plus get more exposure for a set I have a lot of.  Remember, the key is volume with these little guys, otherwise you've spent a lot of time buying & listing a set to only sell a couple for a paltry total profit.

Packaging and Shipping

This is the easiest part of polybag investing; you've already spent time and energy buying polybags, storing them somewhere, listing them, getting paid and now you're ready to get them out the door.  Shipping is satisfying and delightfully easy, plus you can lick envelope glue if you really want to.

Packaging

I choose dollar store small bubble mailers as my go to.  They can fit one poly easily, and when one buyer buys several, you can still usually get at least four or five in there, which means only one stamp needed.  I'm sure wherever you are, you can find a cheap supply of these.  When I started to 'go big', I bought a large pack from Staples when they were on sale, but if nothing is on sale and I'm in need, the dollar store is my friend.  If you get them on sale, they can range from about twenty cents to thirty-five each.  I like the extra little protection you get from the bubbles, and thus far buyers have been quite happy.

Shipping

In Canada, these can be shipped as over-sized letter mail, which costs $1.34.  I factor in these costs when I offer free shipping.  The best part is, these don't need the post office!  I put a poly in a mailer, write down the addresses and simply put it in the community mailbox at the end of my street.  Since the post office can have long lines filled with people who seem intent on wasting as much of my life as possible in line behind them, shipping close to home is awesome.  Check out your postal situation or make friends with someone at your local post office and ask them the best (read: cheapest) way to get your polys safely around whatever country you are in. 

I'm guessing you can find a cheap and easy option. I'm sure there are plenty of other folks with their own strategies for selling these little Lego sets, but I hope you can pick up a few tips here and put them to use.  Whatever you decide to do, find a system that works because if you want to make any serious money, you've got to make a lot of shipments.  A lot.

The success of the modular line in the Lego Investing culture is obvious. Market Street, The Green Grocer, and Cafe Corner all have seen and continued to see insanely successful growth rates, with the newer Modulars only boosting their appeal to people. Take a look at the CAGRs of the different sets below:

So naturally, the Fire Brigade, as what we assume will be the next modular to retire, is an important investment set because all the other modulars have seen incredible gains. However, there is much more riding on the Fire Brigade for Lego investors than just the price of the set and how many each of us as stashed away.

To most of the experienced Lego investors here (I would not be one - I have only started about a year ago), Lego investing really "got out of the bag" about 1-2 years ago. This site and many others have continued to talk Lego fanatics, and people looking to make good money, into Lego investing. Not to say that Lego itself hasn't gained an extreme amount of notoriety during this time period as well and pulled in millions of new builders, but with the amount of investing "heavy hitters" growing, the talk about the "bubble" and the comparison to other toy market crashes like Beanie Babies and Baseball Cards can not be ignored.

So what does all this have to do with the Fire Brigade? Well, the Fire Brigade has been out for just over 4 years now and counting (it looks like it could be done, but has not officially hit "retired product" on the website) making it one of the longest set retail runs to date - and one of the most high profile too. Because of the success of the first three modulars, the Fire Brigade has been a popular choice among new and old investors on top of the people grabbing it because of its modular appeal. Ed, one the site's co-owners, has mentioned that this is the most owned set in the BrickPicker Brickfolio on several occasions. It is extremely safe to say that this set is much more stockpiled than any of the first three modulars.

On top of this, the long production run has been a fear of Lego investors in general. It makes sense - the longer a set is out, the more of them are bought, and the more competition in the secondary market later on. This doesn't mean long production sets won't be winners, just that it could take a much longer time to reap the same rewards from them had they lasted the normal 2 years. Along with this long run, the speculation is that this could become the norm for Lego sets and especially large popular exclusives.

The Fire Brigade is, in my opinion, will be the highest profile set to retire with an abnormal production run in the middle of the "Lego Investing Boom". Because of this, this set may very well be a huge barometer for any of the "buy and hold" investors going forward. If the set still triples or quadruples in value within the first three years, we will know that the long production run did not have as huge an effect. If the set plateaus extremely early as 1000s of investors try to offload their stock they have been holding for 3-4 years, it tells us a lot about what to stay away from moving forward (a shift to licensed sets as better investments no doubt).

No matter what you think will or wont happen with the Fire Brigade, the set itself will tell us a ton about investments moving forward. In this set of blogs, I will be looking at different aspects of the set to set a barometer for what it "should" do based on past sets. I will also be comparing it to other high profile Lego Sets that have retired with a much longer than normal production run to see if we can draw any comparisons. I will also be looking as some best and worst case scenarios as well as what to do during those and my investment analysis from it.

It is definitely not normal to spend so much time and focus so much on one Lego set as an investor. In fact that is usually a no-no as we encourage diversity and sager investing. However, with time showing that the Fire Brigade's production run and investment hoarding may be the norm going forward as Lego fights investors, this set may have an impact on 100s of others down the line. The Tower Bridge, the Volkswagon Bus, the Haunted House, and the rash of new modulars coming out like the Town Hall, the Pet Shop, the Grand Emporium, etc. are all going to be judged by what this set does.

If this set still soars up the proverbial latter and washes away all the doubters, we will know we are living in the crux of the golden age. However, if this investment burns furiously to the ground, we better all be ready to adapt before we go down with it.

"Ed"itor's Note:  Over the past three plus years, I have encountered many types of people on our site and other LEGO sites.  One common thread that connects many LEGO fans is that many are highly educated.  There are many programmers, stock brokers, doctors, accountants, chemists, engineers and business owners that inhabit the various LEGO forums.  DoNotInsertInMouth is one such person...or character.  To make a long story short, I almost banned him for his name and wacko avatar he originally used, but he changed his avatar, so I relented.  Love him or hate him, you know who he is.  So without further adieu...well, you know the rest...Ed Mack

I think it would be an understatement to say that I post a lot on this site. Obviously I have written a very large number of blogs between the contests and have a ton more on the way (I am competitive). I also post a considerable amount on the site's forums and participate as much as I can. This is something everyone here probably knows - so what's the point of this blog.

Well a short while ago I really realized that when you post a lot and write a lot on a popular website, you are listened to. You automatically become somewhat of a role model, and people take your advice whether it is smart to or not. In reality, I wrote a lot for fun and didn't really think about what I wrote (not that it wasn't thought out, just didn't always think of the ramifications of my posts) and some of that has come back to bite me when I have seemingly contradicted myself in forum posts or come off in a different way than I meant to in a blog post.

So the point of this was to give you a view into who I am, my credentials in the fields, and what I do so that you can make an informed decision on whether you should or shouldn't take my advice, if I am experienced enough to be credible in your mind, and to help some people understand why I post the way I do and my general writing style. None of this is meant to "toot my own horn" or try to go back on things I have said (I have said before there are many people on this site with much more experience and who are much better at this than me); I just want to offer up a little bit of perspective because I can not expect to write and post as much as I do and not be considered a "credible member" whether I want to be or not (I do want to be). And I have never really ever given an introduction on this site anyway.

So, a short bit about me and my writing style: I used to be a very descriptive and imaginative writer. The problem was, a lot of my writing was jumbled run-on sentences and full of worthless sentences and ideas (no comment on it still being). I had a teacher in High school that wanted to "unlock my potential" which were her words as I just assumed I would always be a less-than-stellar writer. She managed to mold my writing style to be as simple as possible - nothing extra at all. It became very deliberate and to the point and it really helped me as a writer in high school and college. On the writing level, I have never been passed "proficient" on the writing scale, but I can hit proficient every time without a problem which was really what I wanted.

Fast forward to college; I have a Bachelors degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering and a Masters Degree in Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Louisville. Naturally, I wrote a lot of technical papers which even more made me a very blunt and simple writer (simple meaning I did not add imagery or "extras"). Funny enough, I got a job outside of my field when I graduated, one in Networking. I work for a very large Networking company in the Enterprise Division that serves medium to large businesses with networking equipment. I work in the support department as a support engineer doing things such as supporting customer problems, bug identifying and reporting, and generally playing a giant political role in wiping customer's butts because we want them to continue to purchase our equipment.

That last thought really finishes molding my writing style. On a daily basis, I deal with people who know much less about Networking and our equipment than I do (any one who has EVER worked a support role knows how this feels) yet makes 5X more money than I do. A certain part of my day is spent catering to these egos, but another part of a support role in this situation is being deliberate, blunt, and having a general control of a conversation whether by text or by voice. If you have ever read a blog I have submitted, you will understand where that comes from. I write like I am telling everyone what to do because in general that is what I do every day. I am generally blunt and un-apologizing. I definitely write in a very "preachy" way.

So I want to put out there that this is definitely not my intent and I try to write around these tendency's as much as possible. But I definitely do not want people to think I am preaching or telling people what to do - most of the time I am merely offering what I think and am absolutely fine of people disagreeing with me. I LOVE debate. I change my opinions about things constantly. Does this mean I am a "flip-flopper"? Maybe - but I like to think I just mold and change my opinions until they settle into the place I want them. If someone makes a compelling argument, I will switch. As much as I sound sometimes, with my writing style, that I want to be right, that is really only the small "ego" portion of me. I want to be right, but I want what I am doing to be right not just want what I say to turn out to be correct.

Past my writing style, I want to offer up a little bit more about me and a little about my background in Lego so people can make their own decisions as to my credibility. I am absolutely being honest with you all in this - I am not a fan of "boosting" myself up.

Who am I outside of Lego?

First off, my real name is Evan. I have a few nicknames: DNIIM here, "the Birdman" when I play basketball (anyone who is familiar with Chris Anderson will understand), and "sticks" when I used to play drums in a band. I am 26, married, and live in Huntsville, Alabama.

I am a workaholic first and foremost - I think most people here can attest to that. I really feel that I was born with one real talent: I work harder than any normal person can. I am into a ton of stuff and I do it all mediocre to ok. A lot of people look at me and say "Man that guy is multi-talented" (more on this in a minute), but in reality I just bust my butt on a daily basis (and yes I do not sleep much).

Some of my interests:

• Sports: Playing them (poorly) as well as watching. I love Soccer, Basketball, tennis, and Football especially.
• Music: I can sing (poorly) and play the Saxophone (I have a CD if you are interested), Drums, piano, and Guitar (all in the mediocre range)
• Video Games: Mostly into Sports video games and what I would call "Party games". Also I freaking love Pokemon.
• Code Writing and developing: Totally an outside of work hobby.
• Electronics: Only place I actually use my degrees - I like to fix and take apart/build electronics.

How did I get into Lego?

About a year ago I saw a few Lego Star Wars sets. I had never been into Lego before: I liked it but my Dad was very anti-toy when I grew up. My wife and I went on a Honeymoon to Disney World and I went to the Lego store and became hooked. After some messing around I stumbled upon this site and my addiction was born.

Lego Investing Credentials

I started investing about 8 months or so ago. I found about 12 sets in a small damaged-retail store and that with this site kicked it off. A couple of my best picks have been the Dino series and the B-wing (hopefully it continues).

I now invest fairly heavily. I also own an Ebay store in which I part out sets, sell sets I have invested in, flip used and new sets, and sell anything else that I can make money on. My Ebay store averages about 250 items now and I get, in a non-Christmas month, about 600 visitors a day. I have had this store for 4 months, although I do not expect it to grow much more than this. I sold 600 items during December at an average of 35$ (a couple of big items skewed that as the median is around $14).

I am NOT what I would consider an "Experienced investor". However, I work hard and research constantly. I study past sets before I make decisions, I remember what people say about certain sets and I spend most of my day on Ebay monitoring prices. Speaking of Ebay, I consider myself an Ebay expert in terms of navigation and purchasing/searching (not necessarily in terms of rules yet).

Outside Lego Credentials

I am only 26, so I don't have a giant Investing portfolio. I have, however, managed a business with two locations for about a year, including making purchasing, inventory, and personnel decisions. I have experience in retail as well. I am actually, at heart, a salesman - the place I managed set monthly records for sales 10 out of the 13 months I was there as well as me setting personal sales records (no clue who worked there before so they could have just been incompetent) - but I lack the final killer instinct to sell things for a living as I let my morals sometimes get in the way (doesn't mean they are right or wrong).

Anyway, I will get back to writing Lego blogs, but I wanted to give people a bit of insight into my life before I did. I do not encourage anyone to just listen to me because I write - if you do this in general, you set yourself up for failure. I do not blindly take anyone's advice. I encourage you to take what I have said here and read my blogs and make your own informed decisions based on it. You alone will be responsible for your successes and failures in the Lego investing world (just like you ultimately are in life) so make sure you aren't letting others make decisions for you. That includes not just "taking my word for it" because I am not afraid to put myself out there.

I do know, however, that I owe any credibility I have at all to this site and the people that read my work - so a big thanks to all that contribute. I encourage everyone else to not be afraid to put themselves out there either. As you write and contribute, you will only learn more and boost your own success.  

Collectible Minifigures (CMFs) – they have a lot to answer for, don’t they? I’m sure I’m not the only one who has been drawn back into the grips of TLG by these ‘cheap’ Lego sets? ‘Cheap’ in inverted commas because you never buy one, do you? Every man has a part of his brain dedicated to hoarding and collecting and ‘having the full set’ – every kid does too. CMFs are the work of some scheming genius.

The Guardian printed an article in 2011 on the success and effect of the CMF series:

“Lego said the runaway success of a range of £2 lucky dip figurines aimed at those with pocket money to burn had provided the building blocks for a record year for the Danish toymaker.

With a cast of characters that includes an Egyptian queen and an evil dwarf, "Minifigures" have taken UK playgrounds by storm, helping the brand to report growth of more than 10% in the UK for the six months to 30 June.

Drew Brazer, UK managing director, said the inexpensive Minifigures were "accessible" toys for children to collect.”

According to the free ‘Minifigs Collector’ app (search your app store) and their useful statistics section I know that I have 71 of all 186 Collectible Minifigures (38%) which seems not many, except for the fact I have 71 of the things. Even at retail price (£1.99 here in the UK) I’ve spent £141.29 (some I’ve paid a little more for, although I NEVER pay much more than the original RRP) – in my books that’s a fair bit of cash.

So what’s the draw? Well, I know what the draw is for me, and in presenting to you ‘The Best Collectible Minifigures of All Time’ I hope to present my case as to why the CMFs have done so well,  and why I (and you) have so many of them. To provide some method, I am going to choose one minifigure per series (a la Silent Mode’s original blog post).

Series 1 (2010)

Winner: Super Wrestler

Why? I’m not even a wrestling fan and never have been but the quirky blue head element with the printed face and mask is highly appealing in its originality. There are plenty of other contenders in this, the original series; a caveman, a zombie, a ninja, a cowboy...

The diver and the skater both seem a bit boring considering both have been done before in various themes.

Series 2 (2010)

Winner: Spartan Warrior

3 years after an interest in Sparta was reignited by the film ‘300’ this figure was bound to be popular with its iconic (and never seen before) Greek helmet element and muscular printed torso. Which movie or comic fan or history buff wouldn’t want a mini replica of King Leonidas on their shelf? I do (and I haven’t got him yet). Again, many contenders in this early series with a green-faced witch, a vampire, a mime (and his 3 different heads and beret) and a mariachi guy (a new sombrero and maracas).

There were some pretty weak figures here too: a life guard/Baywatch babe, a weightlifter, a pop star to name the main culprits despite all having new elements (a float, a barbell and a microphone respectively).

Series 3 (2011)

Winner: Rapper

An easy one for me, as a Hip Hop fan. With his color-coordinated new-style baseball cap, microphone and boombox what more could you want? Since Kanye West re-popularized Shutter Shades in 2007 they were everywhere, particularly during the recent-to-series-3 2010 World Cup – to have a Lego head wearing Shutters? That’s cool.

The other better figures are the Pilot, the Fisherman, the Elf and the highly original Gorilla Suit Guy.

Series 3 does seem to be the weakest series so far – a male ‘Tribal Chief’ (Lego had these way back in the nineties in the Western theme), a female snowboarder (the Sports theme was full of these), a weird ‘Space Villain’ (looks like the result of a 4 year old playing with minifigure parts despite its cool Blacktron reference), a boring sumo wrestler, a female tennis player (yawn) and a race car driver (how many of these has Lego produced before?).

Series 4 (2011)

Winner: The Monster

It was between the HAZMET Guy (even though I can only guess at what one is in real life) and The Monster won for me. I like films and literature so having Shelley’s Frankenstein’s Monster in minifigure form is a very good thing. It must be the case that the success of figures such as this one, the Werewolf (series 4), the Crazy Scientist (also series 4), the Zombie (series 1), the Mummy (series 3) and the Witch and the Vampire (both series 2) prompted the very popular 2012 Monster Fighters Theme as all of these figures reappear in another form in the sets.

A fairly strong series all in all with the presence of ANOTHER skateboarder, a footballer and a female surfer being the main let-downs (all re-hashes of previous theme figures, albeit with a little more realism and style). The Artist and Kimono Girl receive honourable mentions here.

Series 1-4: A Summary

Why did I choose the figures I chose? Two simple reasons it boils down to:

1) the figure connects to my personal interests.

2) the figure contains new or interesting elements.

As we go through the next series, we will see if this continues to be the case. Meanwhile, from series 1-4, which are your favorite minifigures and why?

While lurking in the shadows of this site I've read many differing takes on the ins and outs of investing in LEGO. The majority of those opinions center arround either long term investing or short term flipping and which sets are best suited for either. While those are both worthy endevours and I would not discourage anyone from either pursuit one angle of investing seems to be overlooked in most of the posts that I have seen. The missing strategy is buying LEGO in bulk. Where to get it, what to do with it, and how to use it to build your investment. Just as with any other investment strategy bulk has its own pros and cons, I hope to cover a few of them here. Full disclosure, I began my money making career on LEGO by flipping bulk lots and still spend much of my investing resources doing so.

I've always prefered bad news first so lets start with the cons:

1) TIME. With bulk, in general terms, the more time you spend on it the more money you make. At a bare minimum any bulk lot needs at least a simple hose down and a quick sort to remove as many non LEGO as possible. A fbulk lot treated in that manner would bring, on average, $5.00 per pound on eBay. To make any real money you need to spend the time to sort. Bricks sorted by color usually bring around $10.00 per pound. This assumes that you removed all minifigs and minifig parts. The real money in bulk is made by bringing sets back from the dead. The last loose 3181 I sold went for $46.00, had I sold it by weight I could have expected about $7.50. It took about 3 hours of work to sort/find all the pieces, but the extra return made up for it.

2) Bulk is DIRTY. The last lot I bought smelled faintly of cat urine. I always wear gloves at first and wash using dish soap in a 5 gallon bucket, then rinse in a pasta strainer that is market LEGO so I don't use it for food. Some people wash in a sink or bathtub, but I have seen how hard it is to clear a clog. Also make sure to dry your LEGO. They will get moldy. Special note about bleach. DO NOT USE BLEACH. It will make your LEGO brittle and worthless.

3) Hard to find/Competition. Good bulk lots can be difficult to find. As more people discover how much their old toys are worth this will only get worse. My primary tool for finding lots is Craigslist. With all its quirks and scams I've found it provides the most consistant results. Lots can also be found on eBay or bricklink, but you will pay more for them. I have yet to travel around to random garage/yard/rumage sales, but they also have potential to yield results.

4) Unknown results. With bulk you never really know what you have until you dig in. Although, that's also one of the things that I like about it.

And now for the positive aspects.

1) Higher returns. The best bulk lot I ever found I paid $50 for. It consisted of 5 kitchen trash bags full of bricks. When I was done with it, after fees, I made $1,447. Time wise, I spent 80 hours sorting, cleaning and building. I will not touch a bulk lot unless I think I can make 3 times my investment. Most times when all sorting is done and fees are paid I hope to make about $15 per hour.

2) Find COOL sets. I have 2 kids, a wife, and a mortgage. I don't have much in the way of disposable income, as such, I could never afford 10144, 6211, 7261, 7783, 6210, 4848, 4842...You get the idea. I have built all of those and more out of various lots that I have found. Once in a while I've found a gem that I couldn't part with such as a pristine (loose) 4195 that now holds a place of prominence above a bookcase.

3) Low entry price. With patience a bulk lot can be found for almost any budget. Start small and reinvest the profits to work up to larger/better lots.

4) Learn about LEGO. Part of the fun in building large numbers of sets is learning about LEGO. You start to see similarities between sets like the builds of 7260 and 7259. You eventualy can tell a Mega Blok by color and  can spot a valuable minifig (or a fake) a mile away.

I'm sure that I've missed a ton on each side and the pros and cons of mint sets vs random bulk can be argued for ever, but for those just getting into investing in LEGO or those with limited funds bulk lots offer a viable alternative to start and a way to grow equity to invest in the more expensive boxed sets.

For those of you who read my post about ebay powerselling (from what feels like 10 years ago) you'll note I had grand ambitions to become a powerseller by this Christmas season to reduce the cut ebay takes from each sale.  I planned on adding more polybags, smaller sets and the like to boost my total sales numbers.  I didn't have enough complete sets that were retired or purchased sufficiently below retail (Canadian retail) to move, so I was hoping to go smaller and faster, Ninjago-like, if you will, on my quest to get my total sales over 100 in the year over year period.  What follows is a cautionary tale:

Early 2013: All is well!  I scored loads of polybags at cheap prices, tried to choose ones that I thought were cool or had minifigs.  I began listing them and started to make a few sales.  I smiled a lot, despite the cold weather, and visions of success in 10 or so short months seemed imminent, a foregone conclusion.

Spring 2013: My decision to stock up on Avengers polys, a few Friends polys and Monster Fighters polys is paying off.  I've boosted month over month sales to about 45-50 and am halfway to my goal with a whole lot of time left.

Late Spring 2013: We had a baby.  I added another part time job.  We decided to quickly have me finish the basement renovations so that we could put our house for sale in the future as babies require almost as much storage as a part-time Lego business.  I had some sets to part out with minifigs that were reasonably desirable and could quickly add to my selling totals, but somehow that never happened.  I suspect it was baby related.

Fall 2013: I was around 82 total sales in year over year, had a finished basement but powerselling status seemed unreachable.  I started to list bigger sets for the holidays anyway, both on my account and my wife's, admitting defeat.

I never lost money, and in fact made some sweet bank this holiday season, but I didn't maximize my Lego ROI%, falling short of becoming a Powerseller.  In a perfect world, those Harry Potter Castle sales would have left a little more money in my pocket rather than in Mr. Ebay's, but a few too many challenges came up during the year to derail me.

How can this apply to you?  I suppose the Lego investing lesson to take away is that the plans you lay from year to year regarding investing/flipping/holding/parting out, etc., can be completely changed in ways you could never imagine when you make the initial purchases or decisions.  I tend to preach conservative investing, despite how enticing sales & deals are.  You have no idea what the future holds and having a manageable and reasonable plan will allow you to still make profits even if things don't go according to plan.

Veegs

Welcome to the second installment of a series of articles I am putting together called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. The purpose of this type of article is to compare the average sale prices of LEGO sets over the last 5 months. These numbers are the final sale prices, according to data acquired from BrickLink and BrickPicker.

Some readers were a little confused on the purpose of the first article, which you can read at: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/15/entry-430-the-superior-market-ebay-vs-bricklink-msrp-001-999/. I analyze the market prices that each respective site sells at. It does not take into account how easy it is to list, whether or not it is a more “friendly” site, and quantity of sales. Perhaps in the future, an analysis is possible, but at this point, it is purely on sale prices.

I am trying my hardest to keep the sets averaged as unbiased as possible, and if you have any concerns over this matter, by all means, post what sets you want analyzed in the next article! There will be 25 sets analyzed, to try to draw together a better picture of which market has higher sale prices. Fees are not taken into account in the table below.

Ladies and gentlemen...Please enjoy the second installment of The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink - MSRP $10.00-$24.99!

If the table is a little small, please click on the image, and a zoomed in version will appear. * Values represent average sale prices from May 2013 to September 2013

A Breif Analysis: On average, sets that were sold for a higher price on eBay sold for 17.02% more, and on BrickLink 13.03% more. In addition, 56% of sets sold for a higher price on eBay, signifying a very close tie between both markets.

The Bigger Picture: When looking at these numbers of 17.02% and 13.03%, we are only just scraping the surface of what the numbers show. As a buyer, these two percentages are really the only thing that matter - what website has higher sale prices, not including any additional shipping costs. As a seller, on the other hand, we must take into account a variety of other costs: site, and PayPal fees. eBay charges 10% on all transactions, capping at $200 of fees. 99% of the time, PayPal is used to transfer money from the buyer to the seller, which costs $0.30 per transaction along with 2.9% on the total transaction. This brings the total fee percentage to 12.9% plus $0.30.

Of course, if you are one of the “big boys” on eBay and have acheived Top Rated Seller, 20% of the final eBay fees are taken off, but you are bound to certain shipping and handling time restrictions. If so, eBay fees cost 8%, not including PayPal fees, which are constant. In this case, fees take a total of 10.9% of your final cost, plus an additional $0.30.

BrickLink on the other hand, charges 3% on all orders costing $500 USD or less, and including 2.9% and $0.30 in fees, you pay a total of 5.9% + $0.30 in fees.

Let’s take another look at the numbers and do a re-analysis…

Average of 17.02% higher prices on sets sold on eBay, and 13.03% on BrickLink. 56% of sets analysed sold for more on eBay. Now let’s subtract each fee percentage to the percentages we already have (17.02% and 13.03%), to see whether or not eBay actually sells for more when fees are taken into account.

eBay: 17.02% - (10% + 2.9% + $0.30) = 4.12% + $0.30
BrickLink: 13.03% - (3% +2.9% + $0.30) = 7.13% + $0.30

In Conclusion: Overall, BrickLink sales actually surpassed seller profitability of eBay sales by 3.01%, quite contrary to the sale prices.
I hope you learned something by reading this installment, and you can definitely expect installment 3 to be released in the near future!!

Sources:

• eBay Standard Selling Fees
• BrickLink Selling Fees

Installment #1: $0.99-$9.99

Alright, so most of you probably saw my first blog on becoming a power seller, Buyer Discussion (you may not have read it because of its length, ha!) but I needed to do the same for sellers, so this is it. I do want to let people know I am going to do quite a few Ebay blogs about being a power seller, owning an Ebay store, the toils of making this a business, and even more on it.

On to the discussion though, this article is about how those of us who have become bigger sellers, selling several items a day, have to do and have a responsibility to do for our buyers. These are things that I have figured out benefit everyone involved and things that may be viewed as hard, but just really aren't.

For reference, I send out about 8 items a day (although its mostly the weekends - about to wrap up a 40 item weekend after I am done writing this.), but I have only been doing this for about 3 months. On to the discussion!

As a seller, you have a responsibility to describe your item to the best of your ability

Most of the problems with this just straight come out of Laziness for me. I generally will use the same default listing for every item - which is fine. Honestly I think consistency is good - its recognizable for people when they see your listings and they know what to expect based on your first couple of sentences.

However it is sometimes easy to get lazy, especially on used items. You figure it wont matter to mention the little tiny scratch or scuff, etc. This is important though - not just for the buyer and for your feedback, but for the principal of the matter. As a seller, my biggest complaint is that people don't read my listings. If that is really something you believe in, making your listings correct, descriptive, and generally worth reading is your responsibility to that principle.

You have the responsibility to take good pictures

I am ok with stock pictures on new items - I use them on stuff that's brand new (not sets) like minifigures, etc. because they do the same justice and my feedback and store lets people know I am legit. Used items and special items need this though. And they need a good, digital picture.

Besides the fact that this helps your own listing and protects you from SNAD cases on Ebay, it's honesty that goes a long way with buyers and it is only right we show them exactly what they are getting. And really, how hard is it? You phone probably has a 746 Megapixel camera in it. Press a damn button and upload a picture.

Leave feedback for your buyers

This is really even easier as if you start to sell a lot you can spend 3$ or so and subscribe to an APP that will auto leave feedback for you. Either way, feedback is important to buyers - because a lot of them may become sellers and they need the feedback to get going. I don't necessarily think this concept is totally sound - just because you are a good buyer doesn't mean you are a good seller - but at the same time, don't we all remember when we had 0 feedback? Getting those positives for grabbing a couple items is awesome.

It also helps if you get one of those buyers who decides to neg you because they are a d-bags.

Warn and block people when they act inappropriately or unprofessionally and let them know

Duh, right? Well besides the obvious, this is extremely important to the Ebay marketplace. Why? Because this teaches buyers they shouldn't act the way they do. I am generally nice about it, but if someone does something they shouldn't, I warn them and then block them. For example:

1. Message me about buying stuff outside of Ebay
2. Low ball offering repeatedly.
3. Leaving negative feedback without contacting the seller.
etc.

In general I find a lot of these people are younger or immature people. Some of the ones I have warned have apologized and ended up buying stuff and being good buyers. Others may not, but if they know they have been banned (and i assume some of them test it because who wouldn't) it can help say something to them.

Or at least I hope it does.

It is not hard to be responsive

This one may be controversial. I understand people are busy. But there is an Ebay app on every phone. Unless I am busy, I respond to messages within a few minutes every time. Same way with offers (unless the situation calls for otherwise). There is just no reason to not be able, with all of this technology, to simply and quickly respond to someone when they have a question or a problem. I hate doing it sometimes too, but it is a responsibility and something my buyers are happy about. I constantly get "thank you for the quick response" and as much in my feedback as well.

Price your items appropriately

This is no discussion on making deals, or where prices should be. Pricing something on the high side is fine with me - I have several items I do it for. And its totally an opinion

This is more about doing market research. I know several sellers on Ebay who clog it up (because they get free listings) with stuff that is outrageously priced. It is somewhat infuriating to people like us and people who are just buying.

I commonly get offer messages from people complaining about all the stuff jacked up on Ebay. They are mad. But I honestly don't think its at the people selling things for market value - its the people selling things for 5 times it.

Look at the Dino Defense set on Ebay - an Auction listing will go from $150-$180, a smart BIN is around $180-$200.

Unfortunately, we are looking at $250s, $300s and $350s. They don't sell and are worthless listings. To me, think if every listing has 15 that are priced high for no reason. Sure, a few may sell, but think about the 1000s of worthless listings on Ebay! Don't be a part of that.

Conclusion

These were just a few things I think sellers should know (and buyers should know about their sellers and what they should expect). In the coming week I will be putting more info out on the table, so stay tuned! Feel free to refute any of my points below as well. I would love to hear others experiences - this is solely based on mine and is definitely not final word.

Central Europe Investors: protect your investment and satisfy your desire to build your LEGO sets.

One of the easiest ways to burn the money you invested in LEGO is to open a MISB set, just because you always wanted to build that special model. You will decrease the value faster than you can change your brickfolio entry from “new” to “used.” Unless you have a good friend who lets you build his already opened 10179 Millenium Falcon, you have to sit in front of your MISB set and continue drooling.

But there is a light at the end of the tunnel…

When you manage to travel to southern Germany December 13^th to 15^th 2013 you can build almost every desirable LEGO set without opening any of your MISB sets. And in addition to preventing you from destroying hard earned and well invested money, by building my LEGO sets instead of yours, there will be discussions on various investment related themes like storage, insuring and protecting your sets and instructions,…

I just booked all of the conference rooms in the Ottobeuren Youth hostel for the whole weekend, so there will be enough space to build and build and build…

Amongst others the following sets presumably will be there to be build:

StarWars™
- 10179 Millenium Falcon™
- 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner™
- 10030 Star Destroyer ™
- 10188 Death Star
- 10212 Imperial Shuttle™
- 10221 Super Star Destroyer™
- 10225 R2-D2™
- 10240 Red Five X-wing Starfighter™

Modular Building
- 10182 Café Corner
- 10185 Green Grocer
- 10190 Market Street
- 10197 Fire Brigade
- 10211 Grand Emporium
- 10218 Pet Shop
- 10224 Town Hall
- 10232 Palace Cinema

Large Scale Models/ Architecture
- 3450 Statue of Liberty
- 10181 Eiffel Tower
- 10189 Taj Mahal
- 10214 Tower Bridge
- 10234 Sydney Opera House

Cuusoo Sets
- 21100 Shinkai 6500 Submarine
- 21101 Hayabusa
- 21102 Minecraft Microworld
- 21103 DeLorean

Lord of the Rings™
All official Sets of the first 2 series, incl.:
- 9474 Battle of Helm’s Deep™
- 10237 Tower of Orthanc™

and for the holiday mood:
- 10199 Winter Toy Shop
- 10216 Winter Village Bakery
- 10222 Winter Village Post Office
- 10229 Winter Village Cottage
- 10235 Winter Village Market

plus LEGO^® Technic, Trains, LEGO^® Sports, …

Ottobeuren is a small town located between Munich, Ulm and Lindau in southern Germany. The next bigger city is Memmingen (10km) where you find a small international airport and the next train station. A pickup service for travellers can be arranged on demand. If you want to stay in reach of the LEGO sets, there are booked rooms in the youth hostel, otherwise there are some beautiful hotels in the town within walking range to the workshop. So you can leave your partner in the spa for a wellness weekend and go building.

There are still some free places for the workshop (max. 25 participants) and Brickpickers will get 20% discount! Prices for the whole weekend (only for the workshop, food and hotel costs not included) are 100 EUR for adult participants (80 EUR for member of brickpicker.com) and 35 EUR for accompanying kids (28 EUR for member of brickpicker.com, I recommend this workshop for kids older than 14 years. Please contact me before you bring younger children). Prices for day tickets and groups available on request. The costs for the workshop will cover the fees for the booked conference rooms and my time for preparing the sets and counting the parts after the workshop. More information and the flyer (sorry, only in German at the moment) you will find below and at my homepage: rentabrick.de/workshop.

I hope we will meet this December.
Jens

So, anyone who has read the articles in my blog space here, listened to my comments on the forums, or seen my rantings about it in my created topics knows that I spend an insane amount of time on Ebay. Seriously the equivalent of a solid 2-3 hours a day. I love to shop (but not physically) and I really love to find deals. Most of the time I don't care if I actually want it - I like to find those "diamonds in the rough", etc. My views and opinions on Ebay have changed quite a bit in just a short period of time because of my vastly differing experiences on Ebay (which I will explain below) so I wanted to go through some things from the point of view of where I am now for any of those looking to get to that point or people who might take info from here and understand more about what goes on in the background for a bulk Ebay seller.

So first off, I have never really given an introduction at all on the website - I feel like I am pretty predictable so you all know me by now (nothing special obviously, lol) - but I think understanding where I come from is important in understanding my viewpoints.

I am 26 years old and I work as a network engineer for a large company in Alabama. I went through school for electrical engineering. This by no means indicates I am smart - I was actually overwhelmed for much of my college career. It more indicates my one talent : I am a hard worker with unlimited motivation. I am also a very analytically, statistical, and logical person when it comes to anything in my life, especially buying and selling Lego.

Anyway, I got into Lego about a year ago after I saw some Star Wars sets and was amazed at the detail. I am a big Star Wars fan and the recreation was insane. Shortly after I found this site and got into everything I am into now (which is debt, lol),

Fast forward: I got inspired to start selling on Ebay after finding some good clearance deals in July. I got several sets which I felt were not going to be great in the long run, but I could make a good amount of money parting out. I was already on Ebay and was fairly experienced at selling and running an "Ebay business" (I used to design and sell guitar equipment). Lego was definitely a different story - more on that below.

So I started with selling those sets and it went really well. When the promo came out for September, along with all the new Star Wars sets, I saw a possibility to expand what I was doing. I had sold about 40 items over 2 months up until then. Over September, I ordered from S@H 12 times and as you can believe, my Ebay account really took off. This was on top of EE deals, Amazon gold box deals, etc. that I bought and either flipped or parted out. I also cruised Ebay and grabbed items that were under-priced to flip as well.

I didn't really realize until the end of the month how crazy things has become: 150 transactions, close to 7K in sales (Although maybe $500 in profit and $500 in "free" lego sets, and a lot of missed sleep from packaging. Now most people who do as many different things as I do (I do all of them mediocre for that reason, Ha) would say "I should slow down". For some weird reason, this just fuels me. I thought "if I really work at this, I wonder what I could do".

I sat down last week to look at my progress and was amazed. 488 Sales, 13K in sales, and I am thinking about hiring a shipping department. I now have an Ebay store, I am a power seller and top rated seller, and have established myself with a group of customers that order from me once a week or so.

Now, this is in no way to tote myself up. I have said before, there are probably 100 people on this site who could do this better than me. I am not greedy, nor do I really care about money honestly. Its more of a motivation factor for me. However, since I have written many Ebay articles and have really discussed Ebay a lot, I wanted to offer more viewpoints from a seller with very high volume and an Ebay store (to get an idea of volume, 465 items in the last 62 days = 8 or so items selling per day).

So first, I want to start with some Buying tips, advice, discussion - whatever you want to call it - to maybe give some buyers perspective on how a seller of this volume works and how we can all become better buyers. I want to say as well: this is absolutely an open discussion. I in no way think I am right about everything and I think only through discussion do we mold and change our views on things to where they need to be. So without further background:

Reading a description is not just to the advantage of the buyer: It is a responsibility.

Alright, I will go ahead and call out the hypocrisy police: we have all done this. I have publicly admitted to doing this. You should always do it because it protects you.

There is a lot more to this though. A responsible seller (you will know who is and who isn't) has spent time to write the best description they can. It seriously can take a good deal of time. So reward their hard work by reading it. Why? Because it should be able to answer all the questions you have. As someone who receives somewhere near 20 offers a day, 4-5 questions, and with my selling capacity - it is really more disheartening to get a question from a buyer that is answered in the description. Time is money as we all know. Answering these questions takes more time on top of what has been spent creating the description for the item. Before you ask a question, you should make sure you understand the description.

More importantly, don't only look at it from just your point of view. This is hard because you are obviously out for yourself, but try to think about things in the description from the point of the seller before you send an offer, before you ask a question, and before you buy an item in general. For example, I have gotten people complaining about first class being slow in certain cases (5 days). Now I would love to use priority, but are you going to purchase an item I have to price 3$ higher to make up for that? These things help a buyer understand where a seller is coming from, and helps the Ebay community.

Read a seller's rules if they are in the description

Again, I am really bad about this. But there is nothing more disheartening than selling an item and feeling that great feeling, and then getting a message saying "it says you don't ship internationally?", etc.

These are actually important for a buyer themselves anyway. You can read a lot into the seriousness and integrity of a seller by reading their rules. This may make you feel better about "should be 100% complete" with a used set, or about how well they pack the item for shipping.

Understand what constitutes a low offer

Not everyone uses Best Offer. I love it, but it can be a drag sometimes. In general, I don't have a problem with low offers because they can be countered or declined. But I think it is a buyer's responsibility to think about what they offer before they offer.

Let's look at a couple of situations:

1. A seller is selling 30 sets they have had in their attic for 5 years for $500obo. They have a list and say "may be complete", but they are all thrown together.

2. A buyer is selling a set currently on the retail market, at a 15% discount off retail already with Best Offer.

To me, an offer of half the price or lower can easily be justified on the top one. But the bottom? very questionable. People are normally on Ebay to make money right? And we know there is no one on Ebay selling their current retail sets for half price or lower and making money.

Now one low offer is really no big deal most of the time. I generally will decline if the offer is asinine (I have a gunship with no minifigures that someone offered 10$ on the other day. Not worth the time), but other times I will counter and be honest that I can't really discount it like that.

However, when people repeatedly offer like this on items, counter back with another low ball offer, or send notes like " this is for my sons birthday" (yeah well I am not invited to the party?!?) with a low offer, this is not only frustrating, but again time consuming for a seller. And honestly, for me, it gets you on my banned bidders list.

So whats the rule? Well there isn't any - its obviously a judgement call. What I have learned to do (and I didn't used to do this - I would definitely make unrealistic offers in the past) is to think before i press the offer button "can I justify WHY someone would sell this to me for this price without dreaming?". If I can't - its immediately amended.

For me, when I get a good, well thought out and respectable offer, I generally will send the person a message and offer them discounts on other items because I am so happy to receive something that makes since. Offering 10$ for a $25 figure when it is already the cheapest on Ebay is not kosher. Adding to that, offering half the price on an item that already shows as "on sale" is in the same book.

Responsibly open and close your cases

So I will admit, when a customer opens a case for something I can easily resolve, it frustrates me. This is not on the buyer - Ebay pushes the buyer to do this. But, as a buyer I try to contact the seller first before opening a case.

Furthermore, if the seller resolves the issue - close the case. Yes, they time out. But for a high volume seller, there could be several open at one time. I generally check through them to just make sure I don't have new ones I missed, or randomly have to respond. Having these promptly closed out lets a seller know everything has been taken care of.

Understand mistakes in orders

Out of 488 items, I have made 4 mistakes in orders. It happens. We all wish we didn't, but it just happens. As a buyer, I definitely get irritated if I am excited about something and it comes incorrectly (see my rants about people sending lego sets without a box). But we have to understand that we are not buying from Robots. Ebay makes it seem that way sometimes, but there are humans who make human errors on the other side of the internet we are buying from. It is really easy to make a mistake.

As a buyer, it is important to contact the seller respectfully and treat the seller with respect. They aren't the McDonalds worker that just put onions on your cheeseburger. If you treat them with respect, they will take care of you. I take care of all my customers, but I definitely go farther for the people who contact me respectfully and just say "no big deal, it happens".

This is not to say that you shouldn't stick up for yourself when the situation calls for it. But it is important for all of us to put ourselves in the shoes of the other person before we write to them (except for TRU because they are pretty awful).

Leaving feedback is a responsibility to a seller and to the Ebay community

We have had discussions about this. There are tons of reasons that you should leave feedback. But there is one major one that should really stand out : you are directly affecting a seller's bue seller.siness with the feedback you leave or don't.

A good example can be read through a few of my positives. I have had several people leave "got item, poor packaging" or "very slow shipping" as positives. Don't get me wrong, I like positives. But the first was packaged like the other 300 minifigures I have sold and the second was purchased on a Friday night. I sent Monday and it got there Wednesday. As someone who advertises fast shipping and good packaging, this affects my selling (and yes I know no one reads positives, but you do see the points).

More importantly when you leave a negative think about what you are doing. Negatives are the most damaging piece of feedback you can leave. Can you justify your feedback fully? Has the seller not tried to help you in every way possible? Was the problem in the sellers control? I am actually a feedback reader - I like to just randomly read people's feedback. Negatives like "slow shipping" or "item damaged in shipping" just make me wonder if the user ever even contacted the seller.

Obviously you need to leave it. Not many, but definitely some people feel more comfortable buying fro sellers with a higher feedback rating. It literally takes 5 seconds to leave feedback and can make a big difference for a seller.

Make sure you understand Ebay policy before accusing a seller of anything

I like helping people that have a problem (I don't like creating the problem). I work in a support role - I live for making things better for people. So it is very disheartening when someone comes to me with a problem and tells me how I should resolve it, or how Ebay feels about it when they are completely wrong. It happens where buyers feel they are entitled to something they aren't, or will speak for Ebay on a situation without actually researching the policy before hand. It takes a very short amount of time to confirm Ebay's policy on something so make sure you know it before you tell a seller what they should and shouldn't be doing.

Conclusion

This is in no way meant to be a rant or meant to vent at all. I actually am going to write a second piece to this on Selling and advice for sellers and will be putting more on them now that I understand what should and shouldn't be expected of a seller.

The real point in all of this is to put yourself in the seller's shoes in any situation. You aren't a volume seller? Maybe not, but you can think like one when you find a mistake, or decide how to leave feedback, read a description, or ask a question. Putting yourself in someone else's shoes is the only way to understand someone else completely. And understanding them will have benefits for everyone involved.

I wanted to start a dialogue about what I think many people are missing when they discuss any myriad of topics on this and other sites and that is the view of our ‘business’ from a distance, the big picture if you will. I'm not talking about a bubble bursting or not bursting conversation, but instead the changes in the Lego culture that have manifested over the past few years. I will start out by stating that I don't have all the answers, none of us do; but I think we need to start talking about this so that as more things come into light we are cognizant of it and can adjust accordingly. As a long time (and in my own right very successful) Lego reseller I constantly read articles and forums from a number of sites that tackle various issues as they arise, and while those are all valid in their own right and even have inklings of this topic, I haven’t seen a high level discussion on it.

I guess for me it all came to a head with Azog, that lesser character from the books that was given a new life in the movies. 100 of his minifigure were given out 'randomly' at Comic-Con 2013 and as most us know, the prices went through the roof even outselling Mr. Gold within weeks. As prices spiked north of $2,000 people were clearly wanting in on this figure and I have no doubt that there were investors out there feeling their purchases at $1,000 were a steal. After all, Lego has always had a reputation for creating very special and limited figures for events and they have traditionally been a solid long term investment or purchase for many collectors. When the news came out that this same exact minifig was being released in an upcoming set there were immediate laughs and comments relating to how fast the prices would be dropping and that it didn’t matter for the resellers because they already made their money so who cares.

Here’s where the problem starts. While I agree in this instance that’s true, what people are failing to realize is this one singular event will now FOREVER tarnish in people’s minds that they can never be certain that a "special edition" piece whether from Comic-Con, Toy Fair, or anywhere else is sacred. They (Lego) have now cast a doubt in every buyers mind, whether collector or seller and that has the very real possibility of preventing extreme selling of anything like this again. While I'm not saying that’s necessarily a bad thing and certainly prevents surging spikes in the market, it DOES guarantee that the effects will be felt one way or another long term which affects everyone. While it’s a different situation, this can and has been felt in other ways regarding sets that appreciate only to a certain point before dropping as ‘new’ releases are projected to hit the market.

If you step back and really look at the big picture it's just another piece of the puzzle that Lego has figured out on how to mess with the secondary market. First it was re-releasing sets causing older version to fluctuate in pricing, then it was creating sets that were minifig centric thus affecting how minifigs and sets could be broken up for resale, followed by tightening the 10% off coupon restrictions removing the ability to purchase select sets at any kind of a discount, and now it's casting doubt that a limited release may not be so limited. Dare I mention the elusive 41999 Crawler set that has magically appeared at nearly every store nationwide 2 months after selling out resulting in a sudden price drop of nearly $100 online? I'm sure there are other instances that exist but let's be real about this, LEGO doesn't like us whether you call yourself an investor or reseller and they are strategically working to close the holes that have allowed many of us do business the way we do. Some will survive better than others, and like other times of change that usually weeds out the weak and make those who remain that much stronger but either way more changes whether subtle or obvious are sure to be on the way.

In the end just remember the old adage about mice. If you drop a mouse in boiling water it’ll scream, claw, and fight every way it can to get out, but if you put him in warm water and slowly raise the temperature he won’t fight, kick, or scream….he’ll just die. I’m just here to tell you that we are currently in that warm water and they’re only turning up the heat more.

What if anything can we do in response? The most common answer is of course, nothing. I’m sure there are countless resellers out there that either don’t care about my view of things or figure there’s no sense discussing it since they can’t change it anyway and that’s exactly what Lego is counting on. After all you don’t become the largest privately owned toy business without knowing your competition and how to eliminate it, and as I’ve said before make no mistake that YOU ARE THEIR COMPETION. No matter how or what you sell their company policy is that every single person who isn’t an end user is their competition and they are actively working to eliminate you from the retail equation, period.

So where does that leave us and what can we actually do? I have some ideas I’ll outline in my next installment of “The View from 20,000 feet”.

Out of curiosity, I started taking a look at TLG's annual financial reports available since 1999, and thought it would be interesting to show some graphs with the evolution of the company since then. This is not meant to be an in depth analysis, but rather a very visual and quick way of examining how these little bricks that occupy so much of our time have performed over the past decade (more than 12 years actually).

I might get into more detail in further posts of whatever I find and consider interesting, we'll see. For now, here are some of the financial highlights, enjoy!: (Figures are in Millions of DKK)

Talk about a comeback! I am sure a lot of you already knew that TLG has gone through some really bad times financially, but I think that the graph makes this even more apparent. What's more important though, is that LEGO has been presenting a substantial profit increase year after year (Not accounting for inflation). We should all be really happy the company is doing so well, as it can only benefit us in the long run!

Another thing I found interesting relates to licensing fees. We all know LEGO is pretty active in acquiring popular licenses like Star Wars, LOTR and others, but that has not always been the case. If you take a look at the graph below, you will see (in the 1st one) that based in sheer dollar (actually, DKK) amount the company's licensing fees have shot up since 2004, while growth has sort of stabilized since 2009.

On the other hand, the second graph shows licensing fee expense as a percentage of each year's revenue or sales. It is with this graph we can see that, sometime between 2004 and 2005, licensing fees increased substantially relative to sales, and have remained around 6.5% since. In summary, I would say that the most significant turn towards licensed themes happened sometime before 2005.

As you can see, there are a lot of small and interesting details buried in the annual reports the company publishes. I hope I can take some more time to find some other things that can be of general interest to the site.

I will leave you with a simple question: Can you guess, without researching, which was the top selling theme in 2002 and 2003?

Post your guess in the comments!

Thanks for reading.

After a 2 month hiatus, it's time to see the current trends as far as best selling LEGO sets is concerned, based on eBay licensed information. This time, I will only include comments on those sets that are new to the list or that have experimented an special "event", as I can't really add too much information to, say, the 7965 MF's every single month. Let's get to it!

September 2013 Top Ten

1

421 Sold (New)

I don't really think anyone will be surprised to see this set in the top spot of the list. The hype and sales activity this Limited Edition set generated in the LEGO community reminded me of the craziness we saw when the first Minecraft set was released last year, but at a much larger scale given its substantially higher price.

2

168 Sold (New)

3

150 Sold (New)

4

147 Sold (New)

This set has been dropping sharply as far as units sold is concerned. It will be interesting to see if the new versions released under the theme can help it pick up a little in the coming months.

5

128 Sold (New)

This is an exclusive polybag to TRU, given out with qualifying purchases. These kind of products usually have a lot of activity immediately following their release, as the owners probably try to recoup some costs from the sets they purchased to earn it.

6

114 Sold (New)

7

8

107 Sold (New)

Another new member of the Best Sellers list, this particular set includes the always popular Two-Face, Batman and a couple other side characters. The set had a substantial jump in units sold, going from 50 to over 100 copies.

9

105 Sold (New)

This little set was recently retired over the past couple months, and as such experimented a jump in sales numbers as collectors and investors rushed to avoid missing out on it.

10

105 Sold (New)

One of the most talked about set in the forums, the Vampyre Castle's sales numbers are currently experiencing an upward trend, as October and Halloween season give a boost to demand. Definitely interesting to keep a watch and see how it does in October itself.
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And with that we close this month's list. A couple of new members in the list, but the majority of sets we have seen consistently over the past few months.

Thanks for reading.

In this second entry on the Minifig Corner, I wanted to focus on one of the most sought after and expensive minifigs ever released: The Cloud City variation of Boba Fett.

First of all, it seems logical that a minifigure of this particular character is one of the most popular released by LEGO, given the high popularity of the character it is based on. For some reason that's completely beyond me, Boba Fett has been one of the most admired characters of the whole Star Wars series, even though he did not really have that much screen time in the movies.

The Boba Fett based minifigure has been produced in several different variations, from the classic 6210 version to the somewhat expensive white version, passing through the star of this article. Of all of these versions, the only one that even comes close to the value of Cloud City Boba is the promotional White Boba Fett polybag, but even then the difference in price is quite substantial.

In 2003, LEGO released what is, so far, the only Cloud City play-set. It included some great minifigures like Lando, Luke and this more detailed version of the famous bounty hunter. The set itself was not really one that had a particularly short lifespan, as it seems to have been retired around 2 years after release in 2005, basically the same amount of time as the average set. Having said that, the set is pretty hard to find at the moment, and fetches over $ 1,000 (MISB).

A very important value driver for this set is the unique version of the classic Boba Fett minifigure. Basically, it included the same version we see in other sets like the 6210 Sail Barge, with the added details of printed arms and legs. Those 2 factors are what propelled the value of this version to well over $100, also taking into consideration how rare it is to see more than 2 or 3 listed on ebay at any given time.

If you take a look at BL, you will notice that buying only the printed arms and legs will cost you well over $200. That's a pretty steep price to pay, but one that serious SW LEGO collectors probably see as a must in order to have a truly complete collection.

More recently, a printed legs version of Boba Fett has been released on sets like the new Desert Skiff, but it is pretty clear that no version of this character will ever hold the charm and value the Cloud City version currently enjoys.

Thanks for reading

Last February I did a blog on the Bottom 50 LEGO sets with regards to CAGR values. Among the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, there were 5 Toy Story sets:

• 7591 Construct-A-Zurg
• 7598 Pizza Planet Truck Rescue
• 7789 Lotso's Dump Truck
• 7596 Trash Compactor Escape
• 7593 Buzz's Command Spaceship

Not only did the Toy Story theme make up 10% of the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, the worst performing set was a Toy Story set...the 7591 Construct-A-Zurg. Well, I took a look at the most recent BrickIndex, which shows the top appreciating sets over the past 6 months, and to my surprise, there were three Toy Story sets on the Top 20...7591 Construct-A-Zurg, 7590 Woody and Buzz to the Rescue, and the 7789 Lotso's Dump Truck.

What is even more amazing is that the worst performing set back in February of 2013, the 7591 Construct-A-Zurg, is now the BEST performing set over the last 6 months, increasing over 55% in value. The 7596 Lotso's Dump Truck went up 25% as well. If you check the other Toy Story sets that were in the Bottom 50, the 7598 Pizza Planet Truck Rescue went up 24%, the 7596 Trash Compactor Escape went up 24.5% and the 7593 Buzz's Command Spaceship went up 15% over the past 6 months.

From a personal standpoint, I am glad to see this theme attract the attention of collectors and investors. I have always thought that these Toy Story sets were true to the wonderful movies. Their minifigures were top notch and the sets had quite a few unique pieces and designs. What it also confirms for me is that once again, there is true value in many older sets that are retired and under the radar. While many investors are out there looking for new sets to invest in, there are savvy LEGO investors taking a chance on sets that were overlooked for various reasons.

For those of you who like to think outside the LEGO investment box a bit and like older sets, check out the Top Retired Sets page or the BrickIndex page to scan for retired sets that might be showing some late life and growth. They are out there...every month. Some sets are just late bloomers. Good luck...