LEGO Winter Village Sets: Hot Holiday Profits or Bitterly Cold Returns?

Now that summer is upon us, most collectors’ attention is squarely focused on the great summer releases and summer clearance sales that have come our way. However, I always find that as the days get hotter and hotter I begin to long more and more for the cooler days of fall and winter and especially the holidays – that magical time of year filled with simple joys, sitting by a crackling fire as the first snow falls, visiting grandma and grandpa’s house, skating on a frozen pond, and of course opening presents on Christmas morning. The LEGO Group has sought to capture those special, nostalgic moments with its seasonal “Winter Village” line. And they do an incredible job of it. However, do these wonderful niche sets hold more than just nostalgic value? Do these sets make for miraculous returns or are they really just lumps of coal? Let’s take a closer look at this subtheme and find out.

First introduced in 2009 with the launch of the Winter Toy Shop (10199), one new set has been added to the line each holiday season and (starting with the 2011 season) one set has been retired each season as well. Given their seasonal nature, these sets are only available from October through December of each year and sold exclusively through LEGO.com and LEGO Stores. The trend that has emerged thus far is for each set in the line to be available for three seasons, and as mentioned, only three months each season. That’s only 9 months of shelf time for any given set! These sets have now become so hotly anticipated that often times they have sold out long before December.

Let’s take a look at the complete line-up and see how each set has fared.

The sets that have gone EOL, Toy Shop and Bakery, have experienced very strong returns for investors. Will this trend continue as the Post Office and (perhaps the best of the current line-up), the Cottage, go EOL as well? So far, the theme’s short history seems to bode well for future returns.

All of the sets in this line have many of the same qualities of the LEGO fan-favorite modular buildings, but at more affordable prices. While the Winter Village sets do not physically connect to one another like the modular buildings, they all go together well to create an ever expanding winter scene. They have the same “you can’t have only one” quality that the modular buildings possess. Let’s look at each set in the series to see what sets them apart.

Toy Shop (10199)

The first set in the series, simply labeled ‘Winter Toy Shop’, featured a grand Christmas tree complete with presents, carolers, a snowman, and of course, a two level toy shop complete on three sides and open in the back (a key difference from the modular sets). Obviously the focus on the launch set was squarely on Christmas. I love the variety of minifigures and the nice touches on the front of the Toy Shop including a wreath, bicolored awning, windows displaying toys, and the light brick on the second story. The set also includes many great micro-builds in the form of the various gifts and the snowman. The Toy Shop was very popular upon release and with so much charm, it is clear why. Its return the following year, with updated packaging, was a welcome sight.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

The holidays are coming, and that means a busy time in the toy maker's workshop!
This scene from a winter wonderland includes a charming shop filled with tools, toys and even a light-up tower window. Outside, minifigures sing carols by the bench and lamp post, ski on the snow drifts, build a snowman and play with snowballs, and decorate the giant Christmas tree with a star, lights and gift-wrapped presents around the base. The Winter Toy shop features hard-to-find elements including a transparent yellow star, transparent globe elements to create a vintage lamp, dark tan tiles, Power Functions Light Brick, new black 1x2x3 windows and a new caroler minifigure face.

Features include:

•Features a toy shop filled with tools and toys and a light up tower window
•Includes 7 minifigures, cat, snowman, jack-in-the-box, stuffed animal, toy train, robot and toy car
•Includes Light Brick for light effects inside the toy shop
•Winter Toy shop measures 7.5" long x 6.7" high x 3.1" wide
•815 pieces

Analysis:

The Toy Shop is a beautiful set and I simply love it. If you were able to purchase one at retail you got a great value for $59.99. 7.4 cents per piece with seven minifigures is an excellent deal. However, at its current valuation of $170 I think it has just about run its course and will likely see its peak during holiday 2013. It’s time to start thinking about selling this set, not buying it. Now let’s turn to the second Winter Village set to go EOL, the Bakery.

The Bakery (10216)

The second set on the list and last seen during the 2012 holiday season is the Bakery. Available from holiday 2010 to holiday 2012, this set continued the three year shelf life observed with the Toy Shop. This set featured a frozen pond with ice skaters, a Christmas tree logging truck and stand along with another great retail addition in the form of a Bakery. I love the nice variety of minifigures, the wonderfully done frozen pond, and detailed store frontage complete with yet another light brick which is used this time to fire up the baker’s breads and pastries. I especially love the minifigure, or I should say half minifigure, that is buried in a snow hill. Details like that really continue the charm of the series.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Return to yesteryear with this festive holiday scene!
It's a winter wonderland in this snow-covered little town! A special-delivery evergreen, all ready for decorating, arrives at the tree-seller's stand by horse-drawn cart, while ice skaters frolic on the frozen pond with colorful lights and a curious owl perched overhead. Just look out for the freshly-shoveled snow piles - one skater has already tumbled in head-first! At the bakery nearby, the friendly baker prepares delicious holiday treats in his oven and rings up sales at the cash register. Push the glowing LEGO Power Functions brick to fill the building with warm interior light! Includes 7 ½ minifigures, snow owl, horse and lots of winter accessories.

· Includes 7 ½ minifigures as well as a snow owl and horse!

· Features LEGO Power Functions light-up brick which lights the interior of the bakery when you push it!

· Includes lots of fun winter accessories like a dark blue minifigure hood with new fur print!

· Prepare holiday treats and ring up sales at the cash register!

· Skate on the frozen pond made of 8x8 transparent blue plates!

· Interesting elements include a camera, tan baguettes, croissants, green apple, 8x8 transparent blue plates, medium blue tiles and even a new 'caramel' color for several brick and arch elements outside the bakery!

· Features an evergreen tree for decorating, tree seller's stand and even a horse-drawn cart!

· Bakery measures 7" (18 cm) wide!

· Completed model (depending on space allocated between the individual parts) measures 16" (40 cm) wide, 12" (30 cm) deep and 7" (18 cm) high!

· Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10222 Winter Village Post Office or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!

Analysis:

The Winter Village Bakery set doubled in price after only a few months into its retirement. This set has certainly been a great buy for investors who were able to grab them before they were sold out. The Bakery maintains the same great qualities that the Toy Shop possessed and offers a lot of the same trademark elements that made that set such a hit. When available at retail, the set offered a great value for $54.99. At 8.0 cents per piece and 7 and a half minifigures, this set was again a real bargain. At over $100, this set should still have room to run, but I wouldn’t be inclined to chase it. I expect it may top out somewhere around $150. Investors struck gold twice with this subtheme. Will the trend continue as current sets go EOL? Will the next set in the line-up, the Post Office, return again for the 2013 holiday season?

Post Office (10222)

The third Winter Village entry is the Post Office. Introduced in 2011, the Post Office has now been available for two holiday seasons. Those like me who missed it the first two times around are hoping it makes a third and final appearance in 2013. It is currently listed on LEGO shop@home as retired. Hopefully that is only due to the fact that we are not in the holiday time frame yet and not a permanent retirement.

The Post Office is another great set in the series, but probably its weakest entry. When I think of all the great things about the holidays, my fondest memories of Christmas don’t include a post office. Ok I guess every village needs a post office to mail letters to Santa, but for a third winter entry the choice of a post office seems a bit odd to me. With that said, TLG did about the best job they could with the subject matter.

The set features a vintage looking mail truck overflowing with gifts, a gazebo for the Christmas two man band to play under, and a double roofed post office with bay window. The windows look fantastic forming a nice curved store front. LEGO pieces don’t naturally lend themselves to forming curves, so I love seeing interesting designs that accomplish this feat in novel ways. The roofs are a nice dark green color with white touches of snow. This is a welcome departure from earlier entries that featured solid white, snow covered roofs, as it adds some variety and color to the scene. The bright red mail truck and mailboxes add great spots of color to the scene as well. Aside from the checkerboard floor and the fireplace, there is not much of interest going on inside the post office. Then again, it’s a post office – what can really be done to spice up the inside of a post office?

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Deliver sacks full of holiday greetings and gifts in the cozy Winter Village Post Office!
Continuing the winter scene series, the Winter Village Post Office is the perfect snow-covered setting. In the cozy post office, the worker is hard at work sorting all the mail into containers and sacks, while upstairs, there's just time for the postman to take a break before setting off in the traditional post car with all the letters and gifts. From the pavilion outside, musicians fill the air with music, while children take in the wintry atmosphere by the park bench before throwing snowballs at each other - the musicians had better get ready to duck!

· Includes 7 minifigures: female post office worker, male postman, female, 2 kids and 2 musicians and a dog!

· Post office features dark-green split roof with snow, fireplace, light brick, table, coffee mug, and lamppost and mailboxes outside!

· Also features evergreen tree and assorted minifigure accessories

· Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10216 Winter Village Bakery or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!

Analysis:

TLG again continues the ‘7 minifigures + light brick’ formula, and again increases the price per piece by another half cent to 8.5 cents per piece, but that is still a great bargain and well below the 10 cent per piece level that most people look to beat. It is not my favorite in the series, but I still highly recommend it. As mentioned before, it is currently labeled ‘retired’ on LEGO shop@home, but it seems very likely to make a return in 2013 simply because both the Toy Shop and the Bakery were both available for three seasons, why stop that trend now? While this one may not have seen the same demand as previous entries I would expect that it would be strong enough to warrant one last return. So, assuming it does return, buy these sets as soon as they come back in 2013. There is no telling how long they will last before they are sold out for the last time. Don’t wait around hoping for a February clearance on these sets. Finally, we turn to my personal favorite and the largest in the line-up, the Winter Village Cottage.

Cottage (10229)

Good news! The best and biggest Winter Village set is still available. It is the Cottage and it is amazing. It is 1,490 pieces of pure holiday joy. That is nearly double the piece count of all of the previous entries. There are 8 minifigures included this time, along with a light brick – I think TLG is pretty much wedded to including a light brick in each of these sets by now. That is fine with me, because I love light bricks. Perhaps we’ll get some sound bricks with holiday jingles in the future? One can hope. The set includes some great mini-builds including an igloo, grandpa’s comfy chair, a chainsaw, Christmas tree, and a child’s bed among others. There is also a great vintage snowplow/flat bed truck and workshop.

The best aspect of this set and what sets it above the other Winter Village sets is how polished and complete the cottage is both inside and out. It is still a three sided building, open in the back like the others, but it offers much more depth than the other sets. It feels more like a fully realized building like the modulars and less like a simple façade. The flooring is nicely patterned. The lofted child’s room is colorful and fits in nicely. The main room is finished well with a toasty fireplace and vaulted ceiling. Altogether it is a very comprehensive, well designed set that no winter scene should be without. The Cottage is a definite ‘must have’ for any Winter Village collector.

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Build the perfect holiday home with the LEGO Creator Winter Village Cottage, which continues the Winter series and includes a Christmas tree, a fireplace with a light brick, an igloo, a sled and a snowplow. Seat Grandpa snugly by the fireplace with his newspaper as you help Dad put up the tree, then bake a feast in the kitchen with Mom. When it's time to stock up the storage shed with firewood, bring the kids for a ride with Dad on the sled and watch him cut the wood with his chainsaw deep in the forest. When the snow gets really deep, clear the road with the snowplow, take all of the kids skiing or build an igloo to play in. There's no cozier place to spend long, frosty nights!

• Includes eight minifigures: Mom, Dad, Grandma, Grandpa, three children and a snowplow driver with assorted accessories
• Features a cottage, a storage shed, an igloo, a streetlamp, a sled and a snowplow
• Accessories include a kitten, an owl, a fireplace with a LEGO light brick function, a chandelier, a Christmas tree, a wreath, gifts, an armchair, kitchen appliances and a bed
• Storage shed features tools and firewood elements
• Igloo features a fireplace and a removable roof
• Rare elements and colors included
• Detach the snowplow to store it in the back of the truck
• Make the fireplace glow with the LEGO light brick
• Decorate the cottage
• Fetch firewood with the sled
• Drive the snowplow
• Cottage measures 5.5"L x 9.8"W x 6.7"H
• Storage shed measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 4.3"H
• Igloo measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 2.7"H
• Snowplow measures 7"L (with plow attached) x 2.3"W x 2.7"H
• 1,490 pieces

Analysis:

The Cottage is the real standout of this series and definitely the one to stock up on. For 99.99 you get the best set in the line-up with the lowest price per piece at less than 7 cents per piece! So far we have gotten essentially three retail establishments, but this is the first residence. Any collector building a winter scene can do without a bakery or a post office, but they will definitely want, dare I say need, to have this set included. This set is a 10 all the way. I absolutely love it and will be looking to add them to my collection in 2013 and 2014. The only thing that could derail this great investment is if it becomes so popular that TLG brings it back year after year after year. This is a 2012 release, so there is probably not a great urgency to hoard these right away, but definitely don’t forget about them come 2014.

Concluding remarks:

Ok, so by now we have a very nice winter scene, but you know what would really complete it, something that would really bring it all together, perhaps even encircle it with a nicely defined perimeter? I know! A train! If only TLG would come out with a holiday train. Wait! They already have and for a mere $450 it can be yours! Long before the release of all these wonderful Winter Village sets, TLG released the 2006 Holiday Train (10173) set, available for a single holiday season. Although not officially part of the Winter Village subtheme, perhaps it will lend some insight as to the longer term appreciation potential of these Winter Village sets. Now I grant you, the Holiday Train is well, … a train, not a building, so the comparison may be somewhat ill-fitting. Also, it was only available for a single holiday season, not three. With that said, here is a summary of the set:

The Holiday Train has more than quadrupled in value, while the Toy Shop in its much shorter life has nearly tripled in value. On the other hand, the Toy Shop boasts a stronger CAGR at 29% than the Holiday Train’s 25%. I doubt that the Toy Shop will quite reach the levels seen with the Holiday Train due to the appeal of trains in general and the train’s severely limited window of availability, but the Toy Shop’s current trend line is still strong and it is up 50% in just the last 6 months. The Toy Shop may have more room to run, but I expect it will level off before hitting quadruple returns, perhaps peaking as early as the 2013 holiday season. The Bakery has shown very strong recent gains, climbing over 80% in the last 6 months, so it looks as though holding it for at least one more year may be wise. Those investors fortunate enough to have Toy Shops stashed away may want to consider selling them this upcoming holiday season 2013 and rolling those funds into the (presumably) returning and the retiring Post Office. Those with Bakeries may want to hold them one more year and roll those funds into Cottage purchases come 2014.

If it wasn’t already obvious, I absolutely love these sets and I love their investment potential. All of the sets in this line are wonderfully inspired and crafted with great detail. They are filled with great playability, but also make for wonderful displays that any LEGO or even non-LEGO fan will appreciate and admire. These sets are sure to inspire a great feeling of nostalgia for adults, reminding them of the simple joys that the holidays bring, while at the same time delighting the children of the home with the wonderful play features throughout. Definitely pick up the oldest available sets each year, perhaps even a year early to ensure that you don’t miss out. Hopefully the predictable annual release and annual retirement trend will continue. However, as any Fire Brigade, Death Star, or Minecraft owner will tell you, not much in the world of LEGO is predictable. Even though it is summer time I wish you all Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!

Update:

The new 2013 Winter Village entry has recently been announced, the Winter Village Market. This upcoming set is on par with the Cottage in size and price at 1,261 pieces (9 minifigures) and an MSRP of $99.99. This new set looks outstanding for one reason in particular, the carousel. The set features a working carousel than is operated by turning a crank. Not only does the carousel spin, but the horses teeter back and forth and feature unique printing as well. Besides the carousel there are a few stands that are not all that exciting except for the fact that they feature some rare dark blue arches. Surprisingly absent this time around is a light brick. However, the play features of the carousel more than makes up for the lack of a light brick.

I admit when I first saw the images of this set I was a little disappointed that it wasn’t another building and the various booths didn’t do much for me, but once I saw the developer’s video and saw how awesome the carousel was I was sold. I think this is going to be another must have set in the Winter Village subtheme due to the uniqueness of the carousel. It should provide a great focal point for enthusiast’s winter scenes.

On a disappointing note, I am now doubtful that the Post Office will return due to the fact that the LEGO.com description of the Market (below) only mentions the Cottage. Also, as previously mentioned, LEGO.com lists the set as ‘retired’ as opposed to ‘sold out’ which already cast some doubt on its return. It looks like TLG may continue to release one new seasonal set a year, but only keep two current at a time. If that is the case then investors may want to start adding the Cottage to their collections this season.

Market (10235)

LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:

Collect and create a fun festive scene with the Winter Village Market!
Bring home the holiday spirit with the Winter Village Market, continuing the popular LEGO® Winter Village Series. Turn the handle and take a ride on the rocking horse as the carousel spins! Visit the carnival booth. Fill up on holiday and fair favorites including a pie, pretzel and croissant at the baker’s stand, chicken and sausage at the grill stand or sweet treats at the candy shop. Celebrate a holiday season full of traditions and building with the Winter Village Market! Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children.
• Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children
• Features functioning carousel and operator’s booth with moving bucket challenge, baker’s stand, grill stand, candy stand, 2 streetlamps, 3 trees, a bench and 3 tables
• Accessories include cups, teddy bear, a cat, scarf, purse and lots of food elements
• Carousel horses feature new ornamental headwear design
• Turn the handle to make the carousel rotate
• Take a ride on the carousel
• Watch the carousel horses really rock!
• Fill up on holiday treats at the bakery, grill and candy stands!
• Carousel and operator’s booth measure 7" (19cm) high, 10" (25cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
• Booths measure over 3" (9cm) high, 3" (8cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep
• Combine with 10229 Winter Village Cottage for an even bigger winter scene!