Brickheadz (Retail Availability)

Notes: #27, 28, and 57 are on the list below

Coming Soon

Other Brickheadz

Notes:

• 41490, 41491, 41492, and 41493 were exclusive purchases at San Diego Comic Con in 2016
• DCBHZ Wonder Woman was an in-store build at Toys R Us locations July 2017
• ITBH Nonnie was given to attendees of the 2017 Inside Tours
• Amsterdamn/Beijing/Cologne/Hangzhou/Shimao were giveaways at those respective LEGO Store openings in 2018, 2019, and 2020
• 40383/40384/41597 are retail sets that did not receive a Brickheadz number
• 41498 was an exclusive purchase at New York City Comic Con in 2017
• 40316 was a Toys R Us exclusive that was canceled when the store announced it was going out of business. Instructions were posted online for a few days, but no known sets made it into the public's hands. Stickers from 40228 Geoffrey & Friends set can be used to replicate the exclusive pieces in this set.

"ED"itor's Note: This informative and well written article was a collaboration of Quacs and Fcbarcelona101...

In 2006, a television show debuted in the US called Man vs. Wild. Originally a British show called Born Survivor, Man vs. Wild was a reality TV series hosted by the noted outdoorsman and stuntman Bear Grylls that chronicled his efforts to thrive in remote locations by demonstrating and using various survival skills. Throughout each episode, Grylls used every piece of information and natural resource the local landscape offered him, and provided the audience with some audacious survival techniques. Needless to say, it made for some compelling television.

Gryll’s locales provided him incredible opportunities to showcase his atypical survival techniques, and every landscape he visited was full of tools to survive. In our "reality game" of Lego investing, new Brickpicker members are faced with a similar challenge. Tools to learn and conquer Lego investing (or more colloquially, Brickpicking) abound, yet they too can be hidden in plain sight. Members' unfamiliarity with Lego investing may obscure the powerful tools that are readily available, or their inexperience may contribute to a lack of awareness of these tools. With this article, we intend to provide both new and veteran Brickpickers with a road map to our favorite site. So, strap on your waterskin and get ready to make your way through Brickpicker and all of its functions. With a little bit of guidance, its vast information can provide all of us with immense opportunity.

The first rule of Brickpicking is to make money, and in order to make money in Lego investing, you must learn how to build a portfolio. Portfolio construction is the vehicle that Lego investors use to make money. Broadly, portfolio construction includes the following steps:

• Building Your Portfolio
• Tracking Your Portfolio
• Refining Your Portfolio
• Selling Your Portfolio

While this sounds simple, learning to master this cycle will make you money in the Brickpicking game. Naturally, Brickpicker has evolved to include several modules that provide information to help conquer each of these steps. The site also includes a few additional modules that provide a break from the work of Lego investing. To unlock Brickpicker’s potential, let’s go step by step to discover the tools at our disposal to become a dominant Brickpicker.

Build your portfolio

So, you have made the decision to begin your journey as a LEGO investor. The most important question you will ask yourself is, "where do I start?". Thankfully, Brickpicker has several different features that can make that always difficult first step a little easier, but before we review them there are a few points that any investor should keep in mind:

• As with any investment, diversification is key. When investing in LEGO, a good way to diversify your portfolio includes purchasing sets from multiple themes and different sizes/price points. Don't discount the small sets due to their small returns - a good mix of well selected smaller sets can reduce the overall risk of your investment.
• Consider all the costs of LEGO investing. Take into account all of the hidden costs associated with Brickpicking such as wear and tear on your vehicle, insurance and storage. These will be important when determining the actual ROI of your portfolio.
• Craft your investment strategy before hand. It is extremely important that investors establish a clear set of rules to govern your LEGO investment selections. It is very easy to buy every set that sees a discount, but this is not the most efficient way to achieve good returns in the long run.
• Do your research. This goes along with choosing an investment strategy. It is extremely iportfolio.mportant that investors analyze prospective investments as much as possible before actually putting hard earned money into them. You would not invest in a company you have never heard about just because it is 10% cheaper than yesterday; Lego sets are no different.
• Invest within your means. Don't exceed your budget just because some other investors are purchasing several copies of a set and telling you how well they will perform. Follow your strategy and don't get caught up in the hype.

These points mentioned above are not the only ones you should pay attention to while starting investing in LEGO sets, but they are the most basic ones everyone should consider before jumping into Lego investing. With these in mind, let's take a look at the most important features Brickpicker offers its members when starting a LEGO portfolio.

Sales and Discounts
One of the oft-repeated mantras you will see in the forum is, "Never to pay retail for your LEGO sets". This is pretty basic advice and while an investor must consider several variables when deciding whether to purchase a set at MSRP, getting a set at a discount is your best bet to maximize future investment returns. A nice article that goes a little more into detail about the effect of discounts on your ROI can be read at Grolim's Blog.

The premise is pretty straightforward: by getting a set at a discounted price you will stand a better chance at making money even if the set ends up being an investment loser. It is pretty rare when a LEGO goes for a lot more under retail even when its investment performance is below average, so getting a discounted set will make a huge difference when it comes time to sell. Because of this, Brickpicker's Sales & Discounts module gives investors a lot of good information about currently discounted sets in the market. Once you click on the Module, several different features will drop down. Let's evaluate each one a little closer:

Amazon / Walmart / Target Discounts: These three individual modules consist of information related to the current discounts offered by each retailer. In some instances, especially with Amazon, you will be able to select the country you are interested in checking, and the list will include valuable information like the current price of the set, the current percentage discount, the MSRP, and the date and time of the last update. Please note the page will also warn you if the list price from the retailer is higher than LEGO's MSRP, a handy tool that could keep you from purchasing a set you believe has a great discount, but in actuality, doesn't.

The discount page also presents you with a Buy it Now button that will take you to the retailer's website and give the site some credit at the time of purchase. That is a free and good way to help Brickpicker!

Amazon Price Grid: This page is very similar to the discounts section we examined above, yet it does provide a more convenient place to compare Amazon discounts across different regions and a tool to sort the results in several ways. For example, if you are interested in checking only those discounts related to sets in the Architecture theme, clicking on the Quick Link will bring you to a page that shows you only those sets.

Furthermore, you can choose the lowest level of discount you want to be shown with the sorting tool in the upper right corner. If you only want to check the sets with a discount equal or greater than 20%, you can select that option and the page will show you a complete list of sets that meet that criteria. This can be very useful if you have a particular discount level that usually makes you "pull the trigger' with some LEGO sets.

Amazon Best Sellers and Top Selling Sets: These two individual modules are similar, but include information based on two different retail outlets: Amazon and eBay.

The Amazon Best Sellers page will give you the Top 100 best selling LEGO sets and products on the online retailer's site along with the current discount of each listed set, if applicable. This particular list is updated fairly frequently and you may notice that a set that used to be in position 80 in the morning might not be there by the time the night comes around. Those movements are just regular fluctuations of Amazon's sales, and most of the time the list is pretty consistent with whatever is popular at the moment.

As with the Amazon Discounts page, you will be able to select different regions to see what is popular in different locales. This is very useful not for those that do not live in the US, and for US sellers trying to determine unpopular domestic products that may flipped based on their popularity abroad.

This module also has a Top Selling Sets tab that is basically the same as the previous list, yet based on data taken from eBay. Unlike the Amazon page, this one is updated once a month with the same data that feeds the Brickpicker Price Guide (more on that later) and includes some other interesting data for you to make the best decision portfolio selections possible. For example, you will notice the page lets you know where a particular set placed on the Best Seller list during the previous 5 months. This information is critical to determining prevailing trends in the LEGO market.

As an example, say you are considering purchasing a somewhat expensive LEGO set for investment purposes and check the list to see what has been selling on eBay. If you check the list now, you will notice that the 10227 UCS B-Wing is currently in the top position. If the information from the previous months were not present, an investor may think that the ship is a great and popular choice. Yet, a quick look at previous month data would show the set placed in the high hundreds over the preceding months. A savvy investor would easily deduce there was an anomaly in the market that boosted the popularity of the set. In this instance, it was the controversial May the 4th Sale.

You can also filter the results by theme and see which set is the most popular on any given line, as well as its overall place in the Top Selling list.

Top Retired Sets: The last feature of the Sales & Discounts module is the one with the highest potential to be incorrectly overlooked. Even if most investors follow a strategy of investing in current sets, there is significant upside in finding retired sets that are still experiencing periods of high growth or what Grolim called a "Second Wind". Quite often, we see long retired sets growing rapidly in value after a period of somewhat stable pricing. Some sets never slow down and continue to grow rapidly for years (think 10179 and Taj Mahal). For those interested in diversifying their strategies and portfolio finding these sets can be a very rewarding decision.

One of the main advantages of using this strategy is that already retired sets grow from the moment you decide to purchase them if you pick the right sets - there's no wait ing for a future EOL date. For this strategy, the Top Retired Sets feature is very useful. This page shows you the top performing retired sets (released 2008 or before) over the past 6 months, and gives you their ROI. Additionally, it presents you with some eBay listings that are priced within a 20% range of the current market value. Looking for well performing retired sets is easy with using this list and the BrickIndex, a module we will discuss later.

Some other cool statistics shown on this page include the traditional set information, like PPP and MSRP, as well as some investment numbers used a lot in this site such as CAGR and monthly price movements.

These are the features of the Sales & Discounts module in a nutshell. As you can see, there are several features that will help you build your portfolio, and will prove invaluable once you get more experience and have a more polished investment strategy.

Tools and Data

Even though discounts are a very important part of the portfolio building process, they are certainly not the only thing to consider. The Tools & Data module presents the LEGO investor with several other features that will allow the decision making process to be based on data analysis rather than personal intuition or conventional wisdom. While it is very important to pay attention to the impressions of the community, a well-informed decision will always be supported with hard, quantifiable data. Let's look at a module that allows this: The Tools & Data Module. Compare Sets: Financiers compare prospective investment opportunities and historical performance of past investments routinely. When it comes to LEGO, comparing sets is equally important and will help the investor in several different ways:

• Evaluate the similarities and difference among a number of individual sets when it comes to metrics like PPP, MSRP, piece count, release date. This very basic information allows an investor to determine whether the value for the money of a particular set is consistent with several others.
• Compare the performance of already retired sets. It is this case where most of the information displayed in the pages comes into play. Input the set number or name and a list will drop down with those that match what you are looking for. Click your preferred sets and you will see a screen similar to the one below that will include each set's CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate), last six months performance graphs, current market value and percentage changes relative to several different periods of time both for New and Used sets. All of this information can help an investor determine which sets have performed better than average or at least better than the sample of sets selected, as well as help in the search for retired sets experiencing high growth.
• Compare a prospective investment to what you think have been comparable sets that LEGO has already retired. By doing this, you will be able to make an educated guess about a set's potential investment ROI based on the similarities of the comparables. Characteristics like theme, piece count, minifigures and other factors will determine which sets you will choose to compare.

The Brickpicker Compare Sets function will allow you to select up to 6 sets, and the process is very simple and fast. Just input the set number or name and a list will drop down with those that match what you are looking for, select your desired sets to compare, and you will see a screen similar to the one below.

The BrickIndex

The BrickIndex is easily one of the best features offered by the site. This chart is updated once a month in the regular data update and displays the top performing sets over the last 6 month period. Unlike the Top Retired sets list, the BrickIndex can include sets that are not necessarily retired but have showcased high growth over the past half year, as evidenced by the current presence of sets like Tower Bridge and the VW Camper Van.

This features plays a major role when trying to determine which sets are the best to select for your portfolio as they will likely be recent, and probably future, high growth sets. For example, you will see that the UCS AT-ST set is currently in the 5th position of the BrickIndex, with an increase of around 68% over the last six months. From this information an investor could make a reasonable prediction that, even if the set has been retired for a while now, there is further growth to take advantage of given the recent trends. That said, the BrickIndex is almost always comprised of already retired sets, as by default these are the ones that usually present higher growth.

Like several other features in the site, you are able to sort the results by theme to view only those sets that are part of a line you are interested in analyzing.

Bulk LEGO Data

Sealed and used sets get most of the attention in LEGO investing due to their proven investment performance, and because of their visual appeal. However, there is another branch of investing that can't be overlooked as it is also a good source of returns for many: buying and selling LEGO in bulk.

I would strongly suggest a beginner LEGO investor to look into this alternative as a way to diversify their investment portfolio because bulk lots are relatively easy to find locally through sites like Craigslist, garage and estate sales and through the more traditional eBay listing. The appeal of buying LEGO in bulk is twofold: LEGO pieces are always in demand from MOCers and LEGO enthusiasts, and bulk lots are fairly easy to market, sell and ship; and there is always the chance that a bulk lot contains rare pieces or minifigures that can earn the investor a great return in the short term.

Since bulk lots are more for quick flipping than a traditional buy and hold, it is critical that investors knows exactly how much can a lot be sold for on sites like eBay before going ahead and paying a bunch of money for 2 lbs of common pieces that may net you a loss. The Bulk Data center of Brickpicker provides investors with the tools to find out what bulk sets are selling for on eBay based on weight.

The information on this page is shown differently to what is found the set Price Guide since sellers list bulk lots with completely different titles. The most efficient way to present this data is to have the exact listing title along with the sold price, so that is how Brickpicker's Bulk Lot tool is structured. In the listing title, the weight of the lot is listed almost all the time, so by checking the list the investor will be able to make a fairly accurate estimate of the value per pound of a particular lot.

Some other interesting features in this section include selecting the minimum weight of the lots you want to see, themes included in the lot, and colors. Keep in mind that these features rely on how well the seller listed the lot and what specific keywords were used.

CAGR by theme

CAGR by theme is the last feature available from the Tools and Data module, and it can be extremely helpful to any new or veteran Lego investor. The data from this list includes the simple average of the CAGR of all of the sets included in a particular theme, giving you an average CAGR by theme that can work as both a popularity proxy and a performance measure at the same time.

For example, the top performing theme according to the CAGR by theme list is Ninjago (44.78%), something that an investor could take as evidence that the theme's popularity is rather high and that at least several sets have presented great performance upon retirement. These high measures are especially significant when one considers this average includes the CAGR of sets that are still in production, typically much lower due to currently available discounting.

As you can see, you can use this feature to find themes that have performed well in order to reduce some of your portfolio risk. That said, it is still very important to analyze the numbers more in depth by reviewing the individual sets of the theme before making a decision. The simple average provided includes the CAGR of small sets and polybags that can double or triple in value fairly easily, and they are all weighted the same as larger sets. For those of you that prefer investing in larger sets, a weighted CAGR is a nice alternative.

Track your portfolio

So, you've done your homework, selected and purchased a cadre of diverse sets based on your own investment strategy. Now, you must follow them closely and track their performance like a stock or bond trader. Fortunately for members, Brickpicker provides investors with an incredible tool to accomplish this: the Brickfolio.

Brickfolio

The Brickfolio is the place where all the information about your investment sets can be compiled and tracked. Because it's critical for every investor to know how efficiently they are investing, the Brickfolio puts the most valuable information all in one place to minimize the time it takes to research and evaluate your current portfolio.

The Brickfolio module has many interesting features, so let's evaluate the most important ones:

My Brickfolio: This section is where the bulk of the information is shown, and where you will be spending most of your time analyzing your portfolio's performance. The first thing you will probably notice are the overall numbers that relate to your investment such as total current market value, the monthly dollar and percentage change, and more generic information like the total amount of sets and total number of pieces. Futher, the market value of your Brickfolio over the past 12 months is presented in graph form to allow for easier and faster performance tracking and evaluation.

Further down the same page you will notice three different graphs. The first pie chart provides a breakdown of the value of your portfolio by theme, something that can quickly help you determine the makeup of the portfolio. For example, if half of your portfolio holdings are sets from the Friends theme, it would be rational for you to pay a closer look at the market demand for those sets, new releases and pretty much every other type of news relating to that theme to forecast any changes in value. This does not mean you should not pay attention to those themes that comprise a small part of your portfolio, but at least you get an idea of where you should be focusing most of your time.

Also, this graph will give you a pretty nice view of how diversified you are , and how closely you are following your capital allocation strategy. If your strategy includes holding 50% of your portfolio in Star Wars sets, this graph will be a great tool to assess whether there is any need to re-balance the portfolio.

The middle graph shows you how many sets you have in each theme without taking into account the current market value: think of it as counting the number of "shares" you have on a particular theme. Finally, the last graph will give you a breakdown of how well the overall themes you own have performed relative to the prior month. This is a great way to determine underperforming sets and allows you to evaluate your portfolio a little more deeper. For example, if you use this graph to find the sets you own in the Star Wars theme have cratered, you will have to determine why exactly this happened. It's possible you are either not picking the right sets OR not having a lot of currently available sets.

To the right of the graphs shown above you will find some other bits of interesting information about your current holdings as well as some options to customize your Brickfolio according to your region. There is also a button where you can click to see your entire collection of sets currently entered in your Brickfolio, the option to change your base currency, and an option to share your Brickfolio with other users. There is also some detailed information about your most valuable sets (new and used), and some minor supplemental statistics. Finally, the Brickfolio provides a breakdown of sets by Used or New including the market value by condition.

View Brickfolio Items: This option takes you to the same page as the View Collection button in the screen above. Basically, Brickpicker shows your collection by theme with the quantity of sets in each one, and some options like adding sets to the Brickfolio (even custom sets), searching a specific set in your collection (very useful if you have a large inventory), and viewing your entire portfolio to provide a more detailed display of every single set you currently own. This last one is the most interesting of all, so here's a screenshot to demonstrate its featues and look:

After clicking the View Entire Collection button, you wil be sent to a page with all of the individual sets in your Brickfolio, along with some very useful data. Most importantly, you will be able to see your purchase price, the current market value and the performance measures for each set (including ROI), and actual dollar profit. This is the best place to analyze your individual holdings and routinely track their performance (I would recommend monthly, if not more). You will also see the total price paid for all of the items in your Brickfolio and the total current market value of your holdings at the end of the table.

Add Brickfolio Item: So far, we have discussed how to track your investments in detail, yet we have not mentioned how to enter your sets in your Brickfolio. Accomplishing this is straightforward: just click on the Add Brickfolio Item link to enter a vast amount of information about your sets such as purchase price, date, place of purchase and set condition. This information will make tracking your inventory a lot easier and less time consuming. Even if this seems unnecessary at the beginning, once your inventory continues to grow you will need to add as much detail as possible. There is also a text field where you can add any other notes you may want to keep in mind when selling or just as reminders.

Data Services: This section really consists of two very important features: the "Clear your Brickfolio" and "Export your Brickfolio". The first of the two does exactly what it advertises, it clears your complete collection without the possibility to recover any of the data, so you should only do this only if you are certain you have no need for this data.

The export feature will automatically generate an Excel spreadsheet that will contain all of the information shown in the online Brickfolio. Exporting this information to Excel will allow you to manipulate data in the Brickfolio. This will allow you to perform several different tasks, including tracking inventory and recording current Brickfolio values for insurance purposes. I would recommend updating your spreadsheet at least once a week if you are very active both buying and selling, since keeping accurate and up to date records is crucial to tracking your performance.

As of the date of this article, there is currently no option to track actual sales, so you need to delete those sets you sell in order for them to be removed. To maintain a record of sold sets while eliminating its purchase information, edit the quantity and price of your sold items to "0". Future Brickfolio updates may include a feature to record your sales, yet nothing has been confirmed.

Here is a screenshot of an Excel spreadsheet generated automatically from your Brickfolio page: Promote Brickpicker:

The last feature of the Brickfolio module allows you to create a personalized signature with preselected data from your personal Brickfolio. I would wager that members have already noticed some posts with these around badges in forum posts, but in case you missed them, I included a picture a little further down. The goal of this is not only to share some of your holdings with other members, but also promote the site on other websites, forums and blogs. When creating your own signature, there is a check box that will allow you to maintain the actual value of your Brickfolio private while still showing some of the more generic information.

Refining Your Portfolio

Now that you’ve built a portfolio, and are intently track its inventory and value, effectively refining your portfolio will move your portfolio's ROI from good to great and allow you to meet or exceed your projected ROIs. What does “refining your portfolio” mean? It means constantly reviewing the selections and purchases you’ve made in the context of their value in the market. As we all know, information changes by the minute in today’s day and age, so to ensure you’re capturing the most value for your portfolio, it’s critical for BP members to be up to date on the most current market trends and information. Brickpicker provides five modules to aid in keeping you on information’s leading edge:

• The Lego News module
• The Evaluation Corner articles
• The Brickvesting Blog articles
• Lego Set Reviews
• The Discussion Forum

As an example of how important and quickly Lego news can affect the market, most BP members remember the 9516 Jabba’s Palace controversy in April. A news story about how JP would be discontinued hit the Lego News module, Brickpickers reacted to it in the forum, and many profited by quickly buying and selling Jabba’s Palace at a profit to speculators that were whipped into a frenzy about an erroneous EOL report. Throughout the controversy, most of the chatter in the forum thread dedicated to JP was calm and rational. Many BP members speculated that 9516 wouldn’t be retired and even if it was, directed others to current discounts on the set to ensure all members were prepared for an EOL in case it did come. When all was said, Brickpickers were more prepared than the general market to profit from this market fluctuation, and many did in spades. With that as a backdrop, let’s review each of the modules available to refine our portfolio:

The Lego News Module

Located near the bottom of the front page, The Lego News Module is a wealth of Lego-specific information from outlets across the internet. While it appears to be a typically updating news feed, it has helped me on more than one occasion stay well versed on planned Lego releases, and industry information from a number of great Lego fan sites, as well as some national outlets with Lego-related news articles. It updates quite frequently, so chances are you will not see the same stories twice. The Lego News Module is an underrated feature, and since it only takes a quick glance to get the latest Lego information, this News Feed should be added to your daily reading rotation.

Evaluation Corner

Smack dab in the middle of the Brickpicker’s home page is the first of two user blogs that provide a vast amount of information and analysis: Evaluation Corner. In Evaluation Corner, members post in-depth analyses of Lego themes that include discussion of individual sets of a particular theme and their investment potential. The Evaluation Corner grew out of the original Set Review Module, and has become a fantastic repository of investment analysis and advice of each theme. The following recent themes are represented with analysis in the Evaluation Corner area:

Star Wars (Fall Lineup)
City Airport
Winter Village
Technic
Playable UCS Equivalents
SpongeBob SquarePants
The Hobbit
Galaxy Squad
Maersk
Lord of the Rings
Architecture
The Lone Ranger
Western
Modulars
City Fire and Police
Transportation
Super Heroes
Legends of Chima

This list is only a fraction of the Evaluation Articles that have been written, and as you can see, it encompasses some of the most popular recent themes. Rest assured, the founders read each Evaluation Corner entry and respond to the author’s analysis to provide a second opinion, while members are given the opportunity to scrutinize the article in the entries below. Everyone has a chance to weigh in on the applicability of the advice, so be sure to read these response comments carefully, too. The Evaluation Corner, above all else, helps with assessing the sets with the most investment potential in a particular theme.

Brickvesting Blog Brickpicker’s Brickvesting Blog Module has provided the site with the most cutting edge and relevant Lego investing market analysis, beginner’s guides, and investing advice on the market today in one convenient location. While the topics for these articles are as varied as they are informative, they are all well written and packed full of information, advice and in some cases, contradictory opinions. If you need some information on a particular investing strategy, would like help with eBay, or wonder how to pick the right sets for your portfolio, there are many articles from veteran BP scribes with information to help both new and old Brickpickers alike. Similar to the Evaluation Corner, the Brickvesting Blog has a response comment section for every member to assess the content of the article and challenge their notions and analyses. The site content has really exploded over the last three months, and the Brickvesting Blog has greatly benefited. Be sure to read and scrutinize all applicable articles to build your own portfolio.

Set Reviews
With over 1,000 reviews on file, the Lego Set Review Module is yet another source of information and advice for a Brickpicker looking to refine their portfolio. The majority of these reviews are in a structured format to give BP members the opportunity to understand the details, value and playability of the set in addition to its potential return. The format structure really makes the Review Module a strong tool since it forces the reviewer to provide insight beyond the useless “this set is awesome” meme. Additionally, while the Review Module has its own navigation tab at the top of each screen, the set reviews are also embedded in their respective entries in the Lego Price Guide for easy access. The reviews give very specific information by set, so they go a little deeper than the Evaluation Corner articles. Use this module to learn as much as you can about the set, but beware that many of the reviews are written by fans of the set or theme, so investment potential may be slightly biased.

Discussion Forum

Easily the most dynamic module of the Brickpicker site is the Discussion Forum, the place where all Brickpickers go to discuss Lego investing, collecting, news and stuff in general. The forum is typically a collegial place, so you will find most members quite accommodating to new members.

There are some important rules about the forum to understand and follow:

• Solicitation of any kind is not allowed. Don’t post advertisements or sales you are trying to unload, and don’t solicit members for deals, business ventures or partnerships on the forum.
• Political discussions are not allowed. The site is not a forum for members to discuss politics.
• Crude language is not allowed
• Name calling is against the forum rules
• Spamming is not allowed.

In addition to these written rules, there are some unwritten rules that members generally follow that make the forum a great place to cyber-chillax:

• Be respectful. Members of all ages, nationalities and creeds enjoy Lego, and they all have different perspectives. Sharing your thoughts and opinions respectfully makes for a better forum.
• Because the forum is a dynamic place, there is an entire archive of topics that have been discussed. Before posting a new thread, check the old threads for a similar topic. There’s even a function to help with this if you’ve clicked the “New Thread” button. After typing your preferred title, the site will bring up a number of similar threads that may be a good place to post your thought. Review these, and if any are close, click on that topic and a new post will be started in this thread.
• Brickpicker is an international website that welcomes Lego fans from everywhere around the globe, and English is a second language to many who post on the forum. Please don’t pick apart someone’s grammar mistakes - everyone makes them!

To help with quick access, the Discussion Forum is organized into five main areas:

• The General Board – This board has the broadest group of threads, and is the “catch-all” for most non-investing threads. The four sub-forums in the General Board are New Member Introductions and FAQs (a great resource for newbies), Site Information and Updates (a great resource for veterans to suggest and check on changes to the site), Odds & Ends, and Building Lego. The last two include many topics that are not related to Lego investing.
• Members Only Forum – This board is not available to non-member lurkers, so Brickpickers that share good deal, pre-release information, and every-so-often an insider nugget will post their information here.
• Investing and Collecting – This board has the most topics of all, and they are generally grouped by theme. If you have a question or need some insight on Technic, there’s a theme dedicated to discussing it. There’s also a sub-forum discussing the always controversial retirement (EOL) topic, but keep in mind no one REALLY knows whether something is retired until TLC confirms it!
• Buying and Selling – Another with many topics, the Buying and Selling board has sub forums and threads that are centered around specific Lego distribution channels, i.e. eBay, Amazon, Toys R Us, etc. Buying and selling practices and information regarding clearances specific to these retailers can be found among these threads.
• Local Area Lego Deals – The most recent board to be created, The Local Area Lego Deals includes topics centered around specific locations around the world. Live in Chicago and want to discuss your thoughts about the marketplace? This is the place to share.

There are other neat little features of the Discussion Forum that are used frequently that make it a vibrant platform to discuss Lego:

• Reputation Points – Brickpickers have the option to give a poster some credit for a particularly useful or cogent post. In the bottom right corner of each post, there is a small green arrow – clicking on this will give the poster a “reputation point”. These reputation points give newer members an idea of which posters contribute strong and relevant content. Anyone can see the reputation points of any member by clicking on that poster’s avatar.
• Following a thread or forum – Members have the option to check a box in the upper left hand corner that allows them to “follow” a specific thread or forum. When following a thread or forum, the website will automatically send out e-mails with new posts from the followed thread or forum.
• Brickpoints – The Site Founders, Ed and Jeff Mack, have instituted a promotional system where participating in the site can earn you Brickpoints that can later be redeemed for Lego sets. To the left of each post, the poster’s information is displayed including their avatar, country, post count, Brickpicker classification (Brickpicker, Brick Troller, etc.), and their Brickpoint total.

The Discussion Forum is the best place to get immediate feedback and reaction to any Lego-related thoughts or questions you may have. We look forward to both your questions and answers!

Selling Your Portfolio

So, you’ve built your portfolio, tracked it, refined it and now you’re ready to start raking in the big money! Is it time to sell that 10214 Tower Bridge, or should we wait another year? How about that Jor-El polybag you got last month for free from Lego S@H? While you have the option to ask for opinions in the forum, this is your money on the line and any serious investor wants to sell for their target ROI. How can an investor make an informed decision on when and how much to sell for?

Fortunately for members, the core module of Brickpicker is the Lego Price Guide. The price guide includes individual information on over 9,000 Lego sets. Because there is so much information in each set’s price guide entry, we must separate these entries into their component parts to understand and absorb all of it. Here is the list of the parts of each set’s Lego Price Guide entry:

• Pricing information by region
• Photo Gallery/Set information
• Current Offers
• Monthly Listings – Quantity Sold
• Monthly Listings – Price Sold
• Price and Performance Information
• Set Ratings and Member Reviews
• EBay Listings

That’s a lot of information to digest, so let’s review the features included one-by-one:

Pricing Information by Region Pricing

Information by Region includes data that’s truly valuable and sets Brickpicker apart from other Lego sites. It utilizes an eBay data capture program called TerraPeak that tracks sales of all Lego sets, bulk lots and minifigures on eBay. Brickpicker utilizes this data to produce an average value for every set that sells on eBay. To produce the pricing, the last 30 sales are used to produce an average selling price by region. In the past, Brickpicker’s Lego Price Guide only tracked sales made on eBay US, but recently eBay sales from three new regions were added to the Price Guide: Great Britain, Germany and Australia. These sales are aggregated by Brickpicker into four, region-specific sales averages to give members are clear, concise average value of any Lego set among all four regions. Not only is this incredible information, it can present an enterprising Brickipicker with opportunities to sell across country lines.

As you can see in the picture above, the Pricing Information by Region table is split into various columns of information. The Market Value (New) and Market Value (Used) are estimated prices for new and used sets respectively, the Last Month (New and Last Month (Used) are the price increase or decrease for each from the previous month, the CAGR prices measures the Compounded Annual Growth rate from a set’s release year (not its retirement year), and the Price Per Brick columns divides the average new and used prices, and the retail price by the number of bricks that come in the set to give an estimated value to compare sets across time and other themes. All of this information paints a great picture of what the relative price is for an individual set.

Photo Gallery/Set Information

This module may appear diminutive, but it packs a punch. Here, you can look up the primary statistics of every set, including piece count, minifigure count, release year, retail price in all four regions, and links to this set’s page on Rebrickable.com, Bricker.com and even online instructions for the model! It even has a separate section to show how many of these sets are in your own Brickfolio, another great little feature that goes largely unnoticed. The links to Rebrickable.com and Bricker.com are also useful in their own right as they provide further specifics into the inventory and parts list for each set, as well as other set features. Finally, this module includes another underrated feature – a photo gallery that shows images of the set. While it doesn’t sound like much, having a visual image of the set or box allows the viewer to quickly check this is the set they want to review.

Current Offers

While not glamorous, this bit of information tells Brickpickers what price point online retailers have set for this model. It easily and quickly provides a snapshot of your competition’s price when determining your own price. It also provides a pass-through link to the online retailer that sends Brickpicker a small commission on that sale that helps pay for the information the Site Owners provide for free.

Monthly Listings – Quantity/Monthly Listings – Price

The two Monthly Listings sections are also powerful tools. Essentially, they are graphs that track the quantity sold and the average price sold of new sets and used sets over the last twelve months. Remember the 9516 Jabba’s Palace controversy, or the B-Wing discounting? Graphs for both of these sets show the relative spikes in sales quantity and price during their respective market disruptions, and provide an investor with a picture of how the sets sold before and after their respective fluctuations.

Pricing and Performance Information

This is another module with incredible detailed information aggregated into useful statistics. There are four tabs across the top of the table that contain different information:

• Performance Over Time – This shows the set’s current appreciation/depreciation over the past month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 year time periods. It also includes how much the set has appreciated over retail, providing a de facto measure of ROI.
• Recent Sold Listings – This gives Brickpickers the specific sales that TerraPeak uses to calculate its average sales price for the set. This is a great table that provides individual sales quickly. The date and “New” or “Used” designation are also provided. For new members, I highly recommend scrutinizing this list, along with eBay’s and/or Bricklink’s current sold data, to determine a sales price for your listing.
• Averages – More data that provides statistical measures of the TerraPeak data by region. Mean, Median, Mode, Max and Min Price statistics are all included, as well as the quantity of sales that goes into determining each average price.
• Live Completed Listings – This section provides a link to eBay’s live completed listings for the set. This is also invaluable to determining a fair sales price for your sets.

All of this data will provide a pattern of sold prices that should help to determine what your sets’ sales price should be. Keep in mind that these are not absolute, so if you want quicker sales, you can price your sets lower than market value. If you want a higher price for your sets over this rough estimate of market value, you can see the upper limits of other sales prices.

Set Ratings and Member Reviews

This module shows reviews of the set that have been completed by Brickpicker members, and the average overall score for the set. There are links to specific reviews here, as well as arrow keys that toggle between other older reviews. This information is good to gauge a “general consensus” of the quality and potential EOL value for the set. These opinions should help with timing decisions and pricing decisions for your sets’ sales.

EBay Listings
This module is nothing more than its title: a list of active eBay listings for the set. Yet, it still provides members with loads of information. First, if your set has already been listed, you can view your competition to see whether you have a good chance at a sale. Second, if your set hasn’t been listed, you can see where your actual competition has set their prices. Finally, you can see how many listings you will be competing against for a sale to determine whether this will likely sell quickly or slowly.

There are a couple limitations of the Price Guide to note. First, the prices are generally updated on the 15^th of every month for the previous month’s sales, so this average value is not a real-time price. Second, eBay sales prices are only as good as the sales’ corresponding listings, so if an eBay seller lists a set as “New” but titles the listing “without Minifigures”, this listing is still captured by the Lego Price Guide data as a “New” set. This can sometimes under report the actual value of a new set. A quick review of the sold listings will net individual sold listings of the average value, and it’s usually easy to tell the average listing and an outlier that may not be an actual NISB sale.

Ultimately, all of the information in the Lego Price Guide exists to help you determine market value for a set. Once you know market value, you can determine whether your set will garner your targeted return parameters. If you believe you can meet your sales targets, it’s time to sell! Proper research and use of the Lego Price Guide will make you an informed and intelligent seller, and allow you to see your portfolio’s expected returns converted to actual returns. What you do with all that profit is up to you!

Have Fun and Share!

So far, all we have discussed has dealt with how to use Brickpicker effectively for LEGO investing, but that's not to say Brickpicker members are about all work and no play. In fact, there are several features that are designed to provide members with a break from the "stress" and "work" of deal hunting and selling LEGO sets (even though most investors don't consider this an actual job). Let's take a look at some of the most important ways you can relax a little and share things with some of the other members.

Personal Blogs

We have already talked about this great feature earlier in this article, but it is important to point out that personal blogs are not limited to investment related articles. Of course, Brickpicker caters to investors, but the personal blog section gives any member the freedom and a space to share pretty much anything LEGO related. Do you have a fun story about how you got started into LEGO or about your MOC creations? These are completely valid topics to discuss in your personal blog!

Gallery

Brickpicker members have access to a gallery feature they can use to upload images and charts for articles or reviews, or to post pictures of MOCs and personal displays. There is really no limit to what you can share with other members in pictorial form, and we can all agree that sometimes a picture tells more than you could ever describe in a forum post. You can even comment about other member's images and share your impressions!

Image Hosting

Brickpicker's image hosting module is a very useful feature that was just recently added. For those of you that have used sites like Photobucket already know what I am talking about, but for those that don't, image hosting sites allow you to upload images from your personal computer or device and store them in the cloud while providing you a link that will make your images visible and easy to share. By copying the link, you will be able to insert the picture pretty much everywhere, from posts to blogs for all to see.

Awards

When posting in the forums, there are several "actions" or milestones that will earn you one of the many awards available to members of the site. Things as simple as posting a certain amount of posts or focusing on some particular feature of the forums can net you a badge that will show under your avatar. The following are just some of the awards currently available to members, but the list may include some extra in the future.

Brickpoints and Brickpoints Store

As mentioned previoulsy, the Brickpoints system is sort of a rewards program for those members who decide to become active participants on the site. There are several ways to earn BPs, going from regular posting to submitting Evaluation Corner or Brickvesting Blog articles that get published. For a list of detailed ways to earn points please visit the following link to the Brickpoints Program.

Once you have earned your BPs, there are many ways to use them right here on the site. Think of them as some sort of e-currency that allows you to "purchase" sets at the Brickpoints Store, getting them in exchange for your regular participation. They will also be used to reduce listing costs once the Brick Classifieds platform goes live (TBD). Let me emphasize this again: BRICKPOINTS ARE FREE, so make sure you participate in the site and get rewarded in the process!

Just to give you a taste of what you can earn with your Brickpoints, I included a screenshot of the BP Store below.

As you can see, there are several different ways to enjoy the site even when you feel overwhelmed by all the investment talk. It is therapeutic to take a break and enjoy talking about LEGO with other fans from around the world, and special forums like Odds & Ends, Building LEGO and the features described below are there precisely designed to help with that. We really hope you try them all and pick those that are the most interesting and fun.

If you've lasted this far, you have officially survived Brickpicker's version of Man vs. Wild. As you can see, the size and scope of the website is enormous and tackling it can be daunting. Hopefully this guide has both provided you with the road map to navigate the site, and placed you solidly on the road to making money investing in Lego! Enjoy your time discovering and exploring the site, and don't hesitate to use this as a reference. By and large, Brickpicker exists to help its members make money, and we hope you are successful with your Lego Investing adventure.

- FCBarcelona101
- Quacs

Ed and I would like to give a special Thank You to both Quacs and Fbarcelona101 for putting together this extraordinary user guide to the Brickpicker site.  It is something that is long overdue and these guys did a fantastic job.  Much better than I personally could ever do.  We can't thankyou enough! Bravo!!

This month (November 2016) marks my first complete year as a LEGO reseller and active BrickPicker, as well as the second anniversary of coming out of my Dark Ages. Okay, I was reading catalogs and buying a few cool sets for my kids every year before 2014, but nothing like the full-on assault of having to catch up with all that LEGO has offered in the past. To celebrate these milestones I thought it would be a nice idea to contribute some of my key lessons from the past year back to this community.

First of all, a little background. What really got me out of my Dark Ages was LEGO Trains, actually, it was a Fleischmann N-scale model train set that I used to have when I was a kid and which my dad brought over from Europe to the US 2 years ago. Enthusiasm over introducing my son and daughter to model railroading quickly turned into disillusion because I realized that none of the US manufacturers made tracks compatible with my N-scale track, and that just buying extra rolling stock was going to set me back hundreds of dollars for single-purpose items, which break irreparably when played with by (young) kids. Then a little light-bulb went off in my head: What if I bought LEGO trains instead – we could build our own trains, cars etc., and whenever we wanted something different, we just take it all apart. So with my wife’s blessing, Santa brought the Blue Cargo Train set (60057) and two Horizon Express sets for Christmas 2014. Unbeknownst to her, I had also managed to get an (already retired) Maersk Train, a few My Own Train carriages and some other random train-related bulk lots. I participated in a RailBricks contest (the last one they did before unfortunately shuttering the magazine) and started my decent into the delightful madness that is the world of AFOLs.

Since I’m a train guy, you won’t hear stories from me about having to have this or that Star Wars ship, or those exclusive SuperHeroes minifigs. Sure, my son has a Millenium Falcon and Poe’s X-Wing, and the key SW characters as buildables, but our LEGO buying was first focused on Chima (my son loved it), then shifted to Bionicle, and now my kids’ playing revolves around Harry Potter – we don’t own any of the sets, but have a few minifigures and a lot of imagination. My daughter has a lot of Friends sets which she loves, but is slowly growing out of her interest for these (my kids are 10 year old twins at the time of this writing).

Then November 2015 hit, and I started investigating the value of some sets, and joined the BrickPicker forums. My first purchases started rolling in ….. Pirate Chess Sets from LEGO Shop-at-Home, and a few handfuls of 10697 Brick Boxes from WalMart. As I really love the brick, I had determined I was going to start my own BrickLink store (having designed several train cars and placing tens of BL orders I had gotten familiar with how this worked). And I read and read and read on BrickPicker, and participated in the discussions, and grew wiser and smarter and, I must say, warier as time went by.

Here are the key lessons I’ve learned from my first year:

• The buying part is easy. The buying part is fun. Great adrenaline rush. But for many of us, there’s too much to buy. Just because it’s 50% off doesn’t mean you NEED to buy it. Case in point: I picked up a 31033 Vehicle Transport at Target in January 2016 for $10 (RRP: $25, so 60% off). Not a particularly nice set, it had just been released, available everywhere, and who will buy from you as a beginning Ebay seller? Needless to say, this set still sits unsold on my shelf.
• It’s all about buy-in. Where previous strategies mainly revolved around getting your hands on as many of the expensive sets as possible before they quickly but inevitably retired without much fanfare, the LEGO reselling game is undergoing a massive change. Buy-in price seems to be the key factor now. As a beginning buyer I was excited when I saw 20% off. A year later, 40-50% is where my heartbeat starts increasing.
• Selling takes time. It’s not difficult, it just takes time. Time to establish yourself as a trustworthy seller. Time to wait for prices to rise to a level you’re comfortable with. Unless you stumbled upon something truly desirable and unavailable, or if you are able to price significantly below others, don’t count on things selling within the first 30-day listing period. Darth Revans, Iron Patriots and Silver Centurions are obvious exceptions, but those don’t come by often. For other items it is a slow, slow game – listing and relisting.
• The game changes continuously. What works one month might no longer work the next month. Every Bob and Sally has LEGO items in their Ebay store. More and more people join and try to eke out an ever smaller amount of profit. Amazon throws up a gate. Ebay and Target stop a lucrative giftcard cycle. You need to stay in touch or your investments become much harder to sell, or your profit evaporates.
• Making a decent profit is not easy. At least, not for big(ger) sets. Just look at Ebay: You bought a set for $100 and want to make good profit. If you sell for $150 (shipping included), you will pay ~$18 to Ebay/Paypal in fees, and ~$10-$20 in shipping (in the US, depending on where you live). That’s $30-$40 off of your selling price, so you end up making $10-$20. A small profit is also profit, but you’ve spent time on this set, buying it, storing it, packing it, listing it, checking comparables etc. Unless you’re shifting hundreds of these sets a month, this will not be worth your while.
• Your time is valuable. Even if you consider this “only a hobby”, before you know you’re in your car driving from one Target to another. I have 6 or 7 Targets in a 15 mile radius from my house, and a similar amount of Walmarts. Popping into one is a quick affair. But when those clearance rumors swirly, and stock checkers are unreliable, your “quick check what they have” becomes a 3hrs+ road-trip. Plus, with 800+ LEGO sets on the market, you’re quickly spending 20-30 mins per store checking resale values, BL part-out costs etc. Then you need to list. Take a picture or two. Research what others are listing for. Do your administration (which for a detailed oriented person like me means adding a row for each set in a 30+ column spreadsheet tracking all sorts of aspects of your purchases). And for those of us who do the part-out route, there’s time in sorting out the set contents, setting up an organizational system, updating BL inventories etc.
• Choose your game plan. There is too much going on (what with LEGO producing 800+ sets a year as mentioned before) to play all fields. Unless you’re sitting on vast amounts of spare capital, you cannot AND go deep on expensive sets, and cover all themes (Modulars, SW UCS, GBHQ, SHIELD Helicarrier, Advanced Technic models etc) and part out, and BrickLink …. Pick one strategy that best fits your lifestyle. Your options are:
  • Good old-fashioned investing – buy expensive sets for true investment purposes, i.e. stash them away for 3-5 years post retirement and see if that magical 3xMSRP has appeared.
  • Clearance hunting for quick flip – grab those 50-75% off sets, and list them within a year to see if you can get >MSRP to get 75-100% ROI.
  • Diamonds in the rough – take a punt on a few sets that you believe are “iconic” and not soon remade. Remember: First rule of fight club is that nobody talks about fight club. Sit back and watch others scramble over the “common” sets, and rake in the profits when the sets are retired and people realize they “need” them. Or at least, that’s the theory.
  • Buy for part-out. Split your sets into minifigs, buildings and vehicles, and sell them separately for more than the original sets’ cost. I’ve had some luck with this strategy, though it was never my game plan – especially with Dimensions (minifigure and video-game discs sold separately, with the minibuilds as parts for my BL store inventory).
  • Buy for parts. Look at which sets have good BL value, but be careful: unique/niche parts can drive up the value but see very little sales. Be selective.
• Don’t be a sheep. Tied to the previous point. It is so easy to get carried away. “Great deal on this SW UCS – now 30% off!”. Sure, but if you have a budget (and I recommend you have one from the get-go), plonking down a few hundred bucks on a set that you’ll likely have on a shelf for the next 2-3 years might not be the wisest decision. Plus, there are many others who jump in on this, so you need to battle your competitors in a game that is not your strength. Net, stick to your own plan.
• Document. Document. Document. Keep track of what you spend and how much you earn. A spreadsheet is good enough. Don’t count on profit until you have it in your PayPal account. Account for all expenses – boxes, shelving, tape, you name it.
• Find the right marketplace. Depending on your location, you have multiple options. Each marketplace has its plusses and minusses. The key ones are:
  • Ebay. First choice for many. Used by bargain hunters, savvy shoppers and has generally a good, sizeable audience. To really have a good experience, you need to be honest in listing (duh), take lots of pictures, price right, ship fast, and have a return policy (and ideally, a generous one). Also, you need to use PayPal, and unless you work yourself up to Top Rated Seller, count on 12% of your total sale price (including shipping!) to be taken as fees.
  • Amazon. Until very recently the absolute best place to start selling. Everybody shops at Amazon. Unfortunately, unless you pay $1k and provide proof of purchase (and potentially a letter from TLG proving you are an authorized reseller), you cannot list LEGO anymore. I was lucky to get grandfathered in based on a few sales I had in the spring and summer. FBA (Fulfilled by Amazon) is the best one of the lot – limited effort (buy, add to inventory, pack and ship to Amazon – they take care of the rest) and a lot of eyeballs. This comes at a price: up to 20% of the sale price goes to uncle Jeff, but the “Prime” label makes up for that by commanding a premium price from buyers, and people happily click away. Plus, you get a chance to be featured in the Buy Box. Just be aware of returns – you might have to swallow the occasional destroyed item.
  • Craigslist. Flea-market audience. Has the hassle of having to meet with people (and finding a place where to do this can sometimes take a lot of back-and-forth with your buyer), but once the sale is made you have no risk and no obligations. Also: no fees.
  • BrickLink (and BrickOwl, its key competitor). AFOLs only. Limited eyes, but limited fees (1-2%). Your buyers know what they want. Shipping is extra, so no need to accounting for shipping costs in calculating your price. The only downside is that setting up shop properly is not easy – adding shipment methods, figuring out how to price those methods correctly etc. all needs some research. Of course you can do without, but you get more sales if you do it right.
  • Facebook selling groups. No real experience here on my end. I’m part of my local Buying/Selling group, but what I see is not instilling much confidence: used cars, pitbull pups and phones. I doubt anyone will want to buy a LEGO set at a reseller premium there. Others have reported more success.
  • There are other apps and marketplaces: Offerup, Kijiji in Canada, Gumtree in the UK, Marktplaats in the Netherlands and Belgium …. I have no experience with these but from what I’ve heard, they fit in with Craigslist/Facebook above.
  • Conventions, flea-markets, garage sales. Very interesting venues, each with their own dynamic. You could get away with charging a premium at conventions (and potentially at flea-markets), but often your participation comes with a fee, so you need to account for that. Again, not an area I have dabbled in so far.
• Read up on key threads. Check what happened to 41999 to understand how the horde can get carried away sometimes. Read the Amazon/Ebay/CL threads for tips on how to get started, and for answers to commonly experienced questions. Check out the Ethics forum to understand what is being frowned upon – if we don’t keep certain practices and standards, retailers will counteract and remove things like the ability to stack coupons, or the acceptance of printed coupons, or even the privilege of a hassle-free return. And before you make your first purchase, check the speculative bubble thread – if you are still convinced you want to do this after reading that thread, you’re probably strong enough to handle what’s coming (or rozy-eyed enough to not care).
• Master the art of stacking. There are published deals (50% off at Target!) and there are “make your own deals”. The latter have the benefit that they are YMMV (your mileage may vary) – others likely won’t be able to replicate them. Several retailers (Toys’r’us, Kmart/Sears, Meijer, BAM, Ebay, Galeria-kaufhof and mytoys in Germany to name a few) have coupon and discount policies that allow for the stacking of offers. Combine sale pricing with credit card discounts, with reduced-price Gift Cards, with 20% off coupons, with Buy-one-get-one-free (BOGOF) offers, with points/rewards program certificates, until your buy-in price approaches $0. Then rub it in other’s faces on the "What LEGO set did you buy today" thread.
• Get in on those loyalty programs. For the price of a small piece of your soul, join as many rewards programs as you can. Ebay Bucks, TRU Rewards, Shop-Your-Way, Meijer mPerks, BAM club membership, Barnes & Noble membership, you name it. Carry the card. And if you don’t mind carrying multiple credit cards, use store-specific CC’s for your purchases, and earn discounts and cashback. Just pay them off every month, please.
• Be truthful in accounting. This goes two ways:
  • Don’t get into trouble with the IRS. If you sell for profit, you are generating income. Better report it (plus in the US you can deduct the expenses incurred in making the sale, such as car mileage, shipping materials, storage materials etc.). Officially you should also register yourself as a reseller in your state/county (unless you block people in your state from buying from you). For my state (Ohio) this was really not a big deal – a small fee, some paperwork, and a twice-a-year reporting duty (so far always $0). Also, configure your selling accounts (Ebay, BrickLink) to automatically charge sales tax on purchases made by local buyers. You can only do this on Amazon if you have a professional selling account – when you sell as an individual you’ll just have to pay the sales tax out of the sales price. As a benefit: I get to buy tax-free in the few places that haven’t banned resellers (Amazon, Walmart) as long as it is for store inventory.
  • Think about how you account for points, freebies etc. There are many ways to skin the cat, but I prefer this approach: Points never count as a discount on the purchase made to earn them, only as a discount on the purchase where they are used. Freebies count as a $0 purchase, and everything I earn on them is (gross) profit. So, those sets I bought at LEGO S@H for $75 to get the free Gingerbread House really cost me $75, even though I sold the GBH for $50 and made $40 profit after fees and shipping, and got 150 points as part of double VIP.
• Get approval from your S.O. (Significant Other). Some of us are blessed with AFOL partners. Some of us have bargaining partners – if you want to do this, then let me do my thing. Some of us have eye-rolling partners. And even some of us have to pretend and work undercover. Oh, and some don’t have partners, but I’m giving them a break and will not tap into my arsenal of AFOL bachelor puns. At least come to some sort of an arrangement. LEGO should never be the reason a relationship ends, and should never be more important than your S.O. I had big plans (and still have big plans) regarding my BL shop as well as regarding my LEGO Train building hobby. They’ve been slowed down – my wife protested against the amount of time I was spending on this and she was right. <Insert doormat pun here>
• Practice self-constraint. No you don’t have to buy it all. Often I go all the way through the checkout process and then take a breather. A quick comparison with other sites. Read some reviews. Think "yes it is x% off, but you still pay $y". And after amassing a closet full of LEGO: “First sell enough until you have more funds and more space, then buy again”. What also helps me is that I have a (very short) list of sets I really want to have for my personal collection. If there ever is a good deal on those, I’ll jump on it (ideally using Ebay Bucks or Credit Card reward dollars). For the other deals: there will be more deals in the future.
• Be helpful and you’ll be better off for it. Just like you need to build up a reputation of trustworthyness on Ebay or Amazon, I advise everyone to do the same on BrickPicker. Look out for your fellow BP-ers. Help them score a deal when needed. Post those deals when you see them (even if they don’t interest you), or at least, post them after you had your fill. Because all the goodwill you’re building up will help you get better deals yourself – via member-to-member private messages, or just by being "in-tune" with what is happening on the marketplace. And unlike many other platforms on the vast World Wide Web, Brickpicker is a very civilized, high-intelligence online forum. Conversations are kind, well articulated and insightful. Moderators intervene at the right time, and with clear principles. And everyone likes a giggle.

Unless you are a professional reseller (and I know there are several that frequent BP), remember that this is supposed to be a hobby. You’ll enjoy it more when you keep your love of LEGO alive. Scale back when you don’t have time. Sell if you need cash. Pop seals and build if there’s something you’ve now taken a fancy to, or if the market for the set has cratered. But please, please don’t get in over your head.

To conclude my story: I have spent considerable time over the first half of 2016 on building inventory, writing software to manage my BL store’s sales and pricing analytics, and sorted through about half of my sets and parted them out. I listed ~20k parts on BL, and have seen some nice sales coming through. However, as this is my hobby, I’ve had to take a break from adding to my BL store and it has been in hibernation mode over the past months as other priorities took over. I have continued to list sets on Ebay and Amazon to keep some sales going. I bought well – some initial purchases were not as good as some later ones when I got clearer on what I needed to look for in sets, however, those were offset by some lucky finds (Ghosts for half price, anyone?). I resigned myself to contributing to reporting sales and delightful banter to BP, and with ~3.5k posts to my name in just a year, I think I’ve been quite successful at that strategy at least.

To round it all up, some statistics from my first year:

Total resale purchases including supplies, shipping costs and fees: $7.3k
Average discount over MSRP: 44%
Total sales revenue: $3.0k
ROI on those sales: >175% (But I sold quite a lot of freebies which drive ROI up)
Average fee paid (Ebay, Amazon, BrickLink/BrickOwl): 11.2%
Parts amassed for my BL store: ~110k

Quote

Separately, the fantastic deals posted on BrickPicker allowed me to scoop up $2.5k in sets for personal use with a retail value of almost $5k, which equates an average discount of 49%.

Here’s to a great second year!

This blog entry I struggled with the title, and considered a "while you were sleeping" title or something else to really convey how I felt about the current state of Lego investing. Unless one were sleeping, it is easy to see how the Tumbler 76023 has taken off. "The Horde" should be proud. While I am sure plenty of Tumblers ended up in the hands of little Timmy, the horde can pat themselves on the back for plowing though the last 4,000 copies that Target and Target-eBay had left in record fashion being the last retailer standing after LEGO Shop at Home, Walmart and other online retailers ran out of stock.

Lets take a quick peak at some numbers.

Tumbler 76023 - Retired  - Retail $199.99 - current Amazon Buy Box (USA) - $324.99 (as of 11AM on 1/26/16) - Approximately 62% initial bump. Yes I know that it is not the most accurate barometer of price, but I have to pick something. It looks to be trending just under $300 on ebay, with multiple completed sales over $300. Ebay may be cheaper at the moment, but it isn't far behind.

Merida's Highland Games 41051 - Retired Retail $19.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $32.90 (11am 1/26/16) increase of approximately 62%. I picked this set because of the $19.99 buy in was easy to compare to the $199.99 of the tumbler. Both retired in the USA on the same day, both have exact same "bump" although if you were not sleeping, you noticed trends and were able to stock up on your princess quota. I was able to grab a fair amount of this particular set for around $7. They were 60% off an already marked down clearance price. To achieve the same returns, one's buy in on the tumbler would need to be around $70. Anyone manage that price without them falling off a pallet somewhere? Doubtful. WIth my $7 buy-in I am around 470% increase before fees shipping, and I am pocketing around 350% after fees shipping. The Tumbler would need to hit about $939 to realize similar gains if purchased at retail. This set is small, easy to ship, and I don't have to have a heart attack about scammers and shipping issues when I ship out a $900 tumbler.

Other Notable Mentions

Ariel's Amazing Treasures 41050 - Retired Retail $12.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $28.88 (11am 1/26/16) - Approx 222% increase. This is only other retired Princess set in the USA. I personally picked up 10+ at steep discounts (more than 50%), so was sitting on 400% gain before I dumped mine late last year and at Christmas time.

Sleeping Beauty's Royal Bedroom - Sold Out Retail $12.99 - Amazon Buy Box (USA) $17.50 (11am 1/26/16) - These were blown out at LEGO Shop at Home for $9, and are currently on sale at targets for $5 or so. For those looking to instantly triple up on an item and get started selling, solid choice here to get going.

Cinderella's Romantic Castle 41055 - Available Now Retail $69.99 - Available pretty much everywhere. This is the gambling set right here. This set will retire eventually, but we could have another dolphin cruiser on our hands and have a set that won't die. I personally sold a few in the $130 range (on ebay) during Christmas 2014. I think that this is a reasonable goal for this set to reach within six months or less than retirement. I personally think that this one is done and Lego recently made "one last batch", and when current supplies are gone, we will only see limited restocks. As an experiment for this article I wanted to see how cheap I could acquire them in the USA without too many tricks. I was able to pick up 4 from Jet.com (seriously horrible business model) for around $43 each (38% discount), with no tax using a 30% off first order and opting for no returns. They shipped from TRU and they lost around $80 in the deal according to my attached invoice from TRU. Seal codes were 47R5 for those keeping track, so fairly fresh. For me this set only needs to now hit $86 for me to "double up" and I should be sitting pretty when it goes over $100. If we truely had power as a collective, we should be after this one in full force.

Note: This article was written "for the horde" and all the new investors that are all over the Tumbler with gold and glitter and rainbows. There are other sets out there doing just fine, we just don't talk about it.

While I am getting closer to releasing a long overdue update to BrickPicker, now is a good time to release some content that I was hoping to release with the updated site.  @belljohn has been talking with Ed and I for a very long time and has spent a lot of time in creating a series of Brickvesting videos that he is happy to share on the BrickPicker YouTube Channel.  I am hoping to see this expand this into a bunch of different topic series and welcome any of you that are interested in working on some videos to reach out to me and we can work on it.  Set reviews, investing tips, set builds, etc. 

It's not easy to speak for ~15 minutes, but Brook does an amazing job covering this topic. We will be publishing more videos soon from belljohn.  We hope you enjoy it.  Who knows, maybe soon you will see Ed showcase his amazing words of wisdom in video. That will be a real treat.

In recent weeks, LEGOLAND California has gone through another price structure change.  This time, removing discounts from "Sale" and "Hard to Find" items that are carried in their shops.

In year's past, annual passholders would expect to find LEGO sets priced at RRP.  With a LEGOLAND California Annual Pass, a 10% discount was applied to all orders.  During the years of "no discounts on exclusives," this made purchasing exclusives, such as modular buildings, a little more desirable at LEGOLAND.

Late last year, LEGOLAND California started raising prices on certain items, to "balance" the Annual Pass discount.  Items such as the Disney Castle, which has an RRP of $349.99, has been priced at $384.99 at LEGOLAND California.  With the increase in price, the discount works out to less than a $5 savings with an Annual Pass.  This price increase is not limited to just "Hard to Find" items, though.  Even items like polybags, minifigures, and Brickheadz have seen a $1 increase over RRP.

With this new policy, comes the pledge to reduce pricing back to RRP.  "You should notice we've reduced prices on the Hard to Find items," said one employee this past weekend.  (Although, the Disney Castle is still listed in store at the higher price).

In my own analysis, LEGOLAND California was most likely losing sales on the Hard to Find items to the non-Annual Passholders.  Without a discount, there's not much need to buy a $385 Castle when you can order it from Shop At Home while you're standing there, and have it waiting for you when you come home from vacation.

Keep in mind that state tax rates at LEGOLAND California are 7.75%.

Whether this policy remains in effect during the usual Christmas season passholder double discount sale (20% instead of the usual 10%) remains to be seen.  No word yet on whether this will affect any other promotions that periodically go out to Passholders as well.  For the time being, though, one of the extra special "perks" that were granted to Annual Passholders has been taken away.  Investors that were using that perk as a means to leverage a little extra out of their Annual Pass will have to rethink that purchase when it comes to renew their passes.

At this point in time, LEGOLAND Florida does not mirror this policy, although they do have a policy of restricting purchases as they see fit.

An image of the June 2017 LEGO Store calendar has appeared, and it looks like a new Carousel will be coming to the Fairgrounds theme.  The rumor of a new Carousel started back in January, but gained a lot of traction over the last week.  Set 10256, Fairground Carousel, appeared on Brickset earlier this week, which added fuel to the fire.  Early this morning, part of the June 2017 calendar appeared online, and it seems that the Carousel will appearing in June.

(Image from BrickGeekz Facebook page)

The Zombie Apocalypse

Initial concern from BrickPickers could be classified as the "Death Star Effect."  Would we be getting a new set, or, as many feared, would we be getting a repackaged set.  Set 75159 is a more expensive version of 10188, with some very minor additions to the set.  The sets are similar enough that 75159 has created a price ceiling for 10188.  A return from the dead, in the form of a rerelease of 10196 with very little changes, could drop prices on 10196 dramatically.  A big concern for a set that has performed very well over the last 8 years.  A bigger concern for the investing community, is what we can expect moving forward.  LEGO is known for it's innovation, and repacking yet another existing set could cause a lot of disappointment, anger, and lose of confidence in secondary market prices for the investor.

The (Golden) Goose

With the reveal of the calendar page earlier today, overall initial reaction appears to be positive.  The fear of the Zombie Apocalypse appears to have subsided.  Many are enjoying the look of this new set, or, at the very least, appreciate that it is a completely new take on a carousel, rather than a revival of an old favorite.  A number of BrickPicker users chimed in with their opinion:

Deadfraggle says:

Quote

With the exception of the few collectors who literally want a rehash 10196 because they personally missed out, this should please most. It protects the value of the old collectable, gives new collectors a piece to buy, and fits in nicely with the Ferris Wheel and Fairground Mixer. Appears to be a nice looking set. I'm in.

exciter1 chimed in with:

Quote

Looks good and I think the Grand Carousel owners will be pleased.

pstebbing added:

Quote

Looks good. Those that have Grand Carousel should be pleased as this set should only spike interest and add value.

Tickets, Please!

When 10196 was introduced, there was no Fairground theme.  But that all changed in June 2014, when 10244 Fairground Mixer appeared.  That was followed up with 10247 Ferris Wheel in June 2015.  2016 did not bring us any sets in the Fairground theme.  But, 2016 did see the Amusement Park sub theme of the Friends line.  With six sets in the theme, there was now a pretty big fairground theme that could be constructed.  

A Grand Carousel, Indeed

Set 10196, Grand Carousel, came out in 2009.  With 3263 pieces, and a retail price of $249.99, it remains the largest non-Technic set with Power Functions.  The set is red, white and blue, with tan plates making up the floor.  Nine minifigures were included in the set.  Brick built animals, that went in an "up and down" motion as the carousel moved, made up the main area of the build.  A series of cloth "tents" made up the top of the build, which gave it an interesting and realistic look.  Power Functions were included in the set, along with a 48x48 green base plate.  A sound brick was included, to give a realistic organ sound to the carousel as it spun.

10196 Grand Carousel

How Much Is that Doggie in the Window?

For set that started out with an RRP of $249.99, that's not a bad return!  Prices have fluctuated a little bit over the last year, but stayed at about a 10x RRP for quite some time.  One can understand why a resurrection of the existing 10196 would be damaging to the value that investors and consumer put into this set.

The Parts are Greater than the Whole

I wouldn't necessarily say that - but there are some unique and valuable parts to 10196.  We don't quite know what to expect with 10256, but it appears that the parting value of those rare pieces will not be damaged.  Some of those rare parts include:

• Sticker Sheet - $60+
• Green Baseplate - $70+
• Jester's Cap - $2+
• Cloth Top Section - $40+ (each, Qty
• Sound Brick - $150+

Let's Go 'Round Again!

I would expect LEGO to have an official announcement soon.  Let's hope that it's everything we want, and more!

Join us in our discussion here:

So, you have been buying LEGO sets non stop over the past few months, maybe even years, and you have noticed your Brickfolio has increased in value by 10,000% (exaggerating just a bit here). Or maybe you are a short term investor looking to make some "quick" money to fund your own collection or long term investing choices. It can be sort of difficult to decide how to start selling some of your inventory, as well as where to get the most cost effective materials so that you end up with more money in your pocket and less in other people's, So I decided to write this very basic guide to help some of you start selling ASAP! Hope you find it useful.

Note: I will continue making the assumption that you will be selling your sets on eBay, as that is by far the most common marketplace talked about in the forum.

1- Materials

   One of the most important decisions you have to make before you start listing items left and right is where to get your materials. Things like packing paper, boxes, envelopes and so on are an essential part of your LEGO business, and you will need to carefully evaluate exactly what you need and where to get it for the lowest price possible.

First off, you need to evaluate what's the core of your business inventory, as shipping/packing materials will vary greatly from seller to seller. If most of your inventory consists of polybags or loose minifigures, then most of of your packages will need to be bubble mailers and small ziploc style bags. On the other hand, people who focus on set will have to research a little bit more and purchase a variety of boxes that fit a particular LEGO set size.

Following you will find a list of what I currently use for each particular type of item in my inventory, as well as a small description and where to get them (With their own BP Affiliate link in case you decide to purchase!)

• Polybags, loose minifigures and individual bricks/parts

These three categories fit perfectly under one section, as they often require the exact same amount of effort as well as shipping materials. If you have sold any of the three items mentioned above, you know that most of the time you will need to work with tight profit margins, hence the importance of picking the right vendor and quantity. Most of the time, this involves purchasing larger quantities even when you might not have an immediate need for all.

Here are my choices:

- 2x2 Self lock bags ($ 6.86 / 1,000 units / $ 0.007 per unit)

As you can see, these little bags are extremely economical once you calculate the price per unit, basically adding less than 1 cent per sale. Of course, these are not essential to be able to ship figures or bricks, but I would strongly encourage you to give them a chance for a couple of reasons. First, depending on the type of envelope you use, your minifigures may not be sufficiently protected against the elements (rain, etc); this can have a very negative effect on the condition of the figure, especially those that include unique elements like capes and such. Second, these little bags make a seller look more professional and careful in the eyes of the buyer, a couple of factors that might help you with future sales.

- 4x8 Kraft Bubble Mailers ( $12.10 / 100 units / $ 0.12 per unit)

Unlike the previous item, this is one thing you really can't avoid having. There is no best way to mail small items than small bubble mailers, as they require very little postage and help protect your items from damage during shipping. At around $ 0.12 per mailer, I really believe you can't go wrong with these, and it would make more sense to even get the 500 ct if you really have that much in figures or bricks. It is important to note that 4x8 mailers can also be used to ship most polybags, while you might need to get a larger mailer for special ones like the mini Camper Van.

• Sets

With sets, things get a little bit tricky as there are multiple different sizes that make selecting a proper box a little more time consuming. Thankfully, some sizes will allow you to fit a variety of them without needing to get 3 or 4 different types of boxes, and that's personally they way I have chose to go with in order to reduce the time I spend worrying about that. I deal mostly with 28x16x7 boxes that fit most sets in the medium to large range, while recycling and using USPS free supplies to ship the smaller sets.

There has been a lot of talk about where to buy shipping boxes, and we usually hear about Uline, Staples or similar stores. If you are going to buy more than 20 boxes I would definitely recommend to order at Staples to pick them up in store for free, while you can always choose either them or Uline if you are getting a pretty large order shipped  in order to spread out shipping costs.

Most of the time though, small to medium sellers may need less than 100 boxes, and for that amount Amazon actually offers a nice option to purchase them (usually with Prime shipping) for pretty much the same price as bulk sellers like Uline. If you check the link below, you will be able to purchase 20 boxes (28*16*7) for around $45. These are pretty good quality and the ones I personally use more often.

- 28x16x7 Shipping Boxes ($44.87 / 20 units / $2.24 per unit)

Compare to Uline ($47.8 same Qty and Size)

- Scotch Shipping Tape ( $ 9.97 / 4 Rolls (215 yards total) / $2.49 per unit)

Another essential item, shipping tape. I have tried a variety of different brands and types and have found that this particular one is the one I liked the most. It might not be the cheapest one out there, especially if you search on eBay and get some generic tape, but they match what I'm looking for in respects to quality and duration. Unlike some other brands, I really don't need to use that much tape to completely secure  a heavy shipping box, and that gives me the peace of mind it will get safely to its destination.

As said before, you will be able to find cheaper versions out there, but in my opinion the quality of most is sub-par.

• Misc.

The following is completely optional and not really needed, but I have been using it for a while and find that it saves me time and sort of streamlines the process of packing both sets or smaller items.

- Avery shipping labels ($ 26.95 / 200 ct / $ 0.13 per unit)

These labels are really high quality, and even though they only come in the 200 ct packet for Laser printer (50 ct for inkjet) I have been using them on my inkjet printer for quite a while with no problem whatsoever. I really like to just print the label and immediately paste it on the package without having to tape over the label to attach it, and these have the added bonus of blocking any other label previously applied to the box. Basically, you can recycle any of the boxes you receive by simply pasting the new label over the old one. (Not all self adhesive labels do this well). For an extra 13 cents per sale, I find them a really good value.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And that's it for now. Again, these are the materials I personally use, so feel free to add your own recommendations in the comments section. I hope that at least some of our most new sellers are able to benefit from this basic information.

Thanks for reading

Here is the list of current and upcoming polybags in the LEGO world.  If you've found a polybag that's not on this list, or have any update to give us, please note it in the comments below.  This information is put together from a number of different sources on the Internet, including real world reports. Availability in your area may vary.  This information is US-based.  These are from within the last 12 months.

Polybags Currently Available

Polybags Coming Soon

Polybags That Appear to be Unavailable

Probably I'm not the only one surprised by the early retirement of several quite recent Star Wars sets. I decided to make an overview of all non-polybag Star Wars sets in Europe and in the United States. The list below is the result. It is divided in subs '2013', '2014', 'January 2015', 'during 2015'. At least in the Netherlands you can find toy stores that still have some of these retired and Shop-at-home-sold-out sets, some even from 2013. Hopefully you will find this list useful in your shopping efforts. Collecting and investing conclusions: below list. 

This list was last updated 25 March 2016. Updates can be seen under the list. 

2013

2014

JANUARY 2015 

DURING 2015  

All data were first gathered on the 25th of January 2016,  except the Ewok Village and Red 5, which data were gathered on the 27th of January 2016. Data thereafter amended corresponding to the updates listed below. References: Brickset, Brickpicker and Lego Shop at Home. Exp.: "expected shipping in case item is out of stock". Av.: "first date of availability of a set".

With retired sets, the number of available days is given. Green: more than two years availability. Orange: one to two years availability. Red: Less than one year availability.

Updates

• 27 January 2016
• 10236 Ewok Village and 10240 X-Wing Red 5 were added. Thanks @fossilrock for the tip. 
• 75058 MTT: changed from 'retired' in Europe to 'temporarily out of stock, retiring soon' in Europe.
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'available' in the US to 'out of stock, expected shipping Feb. 10 2016".
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'out of stock' to 'available' in Europe. 
• 75060 Slave I: changed from 'out of stock, exp. 29 Jan.' to 'exp. 9 Feb.' in Europe.
• 75079 Shadow Troopers: changed from 'out of stock, exp. 30 days' to 'exp. 7 Feb.' in US. 
• 75094 Tyderium Shuttle: changed from 'exp. 26 Jan.' to 'available' in Europe.
• 75095 UCS Tie Fighter: changed from 'exp. 26 Jan.' to 'available' in Europe.
• 75099 Rey's Speeder: changed from 'exp. 26 Jan.' to 'available' in Europe.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 29 Jan. to 'available' in Europe.
• 28 January 2016
• 10240 X-Wing Red 5: changed from 'temporary out of stock' to 'retired' in Europe. Note: was only 'temporary out of stock' for a few days; previous status: 'retired'.  
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'out of stock, expected shipping Feb. 10' to 'exp. Feb. 12' in US.
• 75075 AT-AT: changed from 'out of stock, expected shipping 29 Jan.' to 'available' in Europe.
• 75101 First Order Special Forces Tie Fighter: changed from 'out of stock, exp. shipping 29 Jan.' to 'available' in Europe.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'temporary out of stock' to 'available' in Europe. 
• 29 January 2016
• 10236 Ewok Village: changed from 'temporary unavailable' to 'available' in US.
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 12 Feb.' to '13 Feb.' in US.
• 75060 UCS Slave I: changed from 'exp. 7 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75078 Imperial Troop Transport: changed from 'exp. 26 Jan.' to 'available' in EU.
• 75079 Shadow Troopers: changed from 'exp. 7 Feb. US' to 'available' in US.
• 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Mar.' in US.
• 75096 Sith Infiltrator: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to '17 Mar.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 13 Feb.' in US.
• 30 January 2016
• 75078 Imperial Troop Transport: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 11 Feb.' in US. 
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'available' to 'temporary OOS' in EU.
• 31 January 2016
• 75078 Imperial Troop Transport: changed from 'exp. 11 Feb.' to 'exp. in 30 days' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 6 Feb.' to 'exp. in 30 days' in US.
• 1 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 1 Mar.' in EU.
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 13 Feb.' to '14 Feb.' in US.
• 75078 Imperial Troop Transport: changed from 'exp. in 30 days' to '14 Feb.' in US.
• 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter: changed from 'exp. 17 Mar. to '15 Feb.' in US.
• 75096 Sith Infiltrator: changed from 'exp. 17 Mar." to '15 Feb.' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. in 30 days' to 'exp. 6 Feb.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'exp. 13 Feb.' to '14 Feb.' in US.
• 2 February 2016
• 75060 UCS Slave I: changed from 'exp. 9 Feb.' to '8 Feb.' in EU.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 6 Feb.' to 'exp. in 30 days' in US.
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'temporary unavailable' to 'available' in EU.
• 3 February 2016
• 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter: changed from 'exp. 15 Feb. to '14 Feb.' in US.
• 75096 Sith Infiltrator: changed from 'exp. 15 Feb. to '14 Feb.' in US.
• 75095 UCS Tie Fighter: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 8 Feb.' in EU.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. in 30 days' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' in US.
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'available' to 'temporary unavailable' in EU.
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'available' to 'temporary unavailable' in EU.
• 4 February 2016
• 10236 Ewok Village: changed from 'exp. 9 Feb.' to 'available' in EU.
• 75058 MTT: says 'temporarily unavailable, retiring soon' but when clicking on entry it says 'sold out' in EU.
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 14 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75060 UCS Slave I: changed from 'exp. 8 Feb.' to 'available' in EU.
• 75078 Imperial Troop Transport: changed from 'exp. 14 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter: changed from 'exp. 14 Feb. to 'available' in US.
• 75095 UCS Tie Fighter: changed from 'exp. 8 Feb.' to 'available' in EU.
• 76096 Sith Infiltrator: changed rom 'exp. 14 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 10 Feb.' in EU.
• 75107 Jango Fett: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75111 Darth Vader: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75111 General Grievous: says 'temporarily unavailable' but when clicking on entry it says 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 5 February 2016
• 75058 MTT: changed from 'temporarily OOS retiring soon OR Sold out' to 'Sold out' in EU. 
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 19 Feb.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'exp. 14 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 10 Feb.' to 'exp. 10 Feb.' in EU.
• 75107 Jango Fett: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75111 Darth Vader: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 75112 General Grievous: changed from 'temporarily unavailable' OR exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' in EU.
• 6 February 2016
• 75058 MTT: changed from 'sold out' to 'not on the website' in EU.
• 7 February 2016
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 19 Feb.' to 'exp. 18 Feb. OR 19 Feb.' in US.
• 8 February 2016
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' OR 1'9 Feb.' to 'exp. in 30 days' OR '18 Feb.' in US.
• 75060 Slave I: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' in EU.
• 9 February 2016
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. in 30 days' OR '18 Feb.' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'exp. 10 Feb.' to 'exp. 25 Feb.' in EU.
• 75107 Jango Fett: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75111 Darth Vader: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75112 General Grievous: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' to 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 10 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' in US.
• 75060 UCS Slave 1: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' in US.
• 75082 Tie Advanced Prototype: changed from 'available' to 'exp. in 30 days' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' OR 'exp. in 30 days' in US.
• 75107 Jango Fett: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75111 Darth Vader: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 75112 General Grievous: changed from 'exp. 17 Feb.' OR exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' in EU. 
• 11 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' OR 'exp. 26 Feb.' in US.
• 75060 UCS Slave I: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 18 Feb.' OR 'exp. 26 Feb.' in US.
• 75085 Hailfire Droid: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 17 Mar.' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' OR 'exp. in 30 days' to 'exp. in 30 days' OR 'exp. 18 Feb.' in US. 
• 75107 Jango Fett: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' in EU. 
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' in EU. 
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' in EU. 
• 75111 Darth Vader: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' in EU. 
• 75112 General Grievous: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' to 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' in EU. 
• 12 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 26 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75060 Slave I: changed from 'exp. 26 Feb.' to 'available' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 18 Feb.' to 'exp. 30 days' in US.
• 75107 Jango Fett: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' to 'available' in EU.
• 75108 Clone Commander Cody: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' to 'available' in EU.
• 75110 Luke Skywalker: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' to 'available' in EU.
• 75111 Darth Vader: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' to 'available' in EU.
• 75112 General Grievous: changed from 'exp. 16 Feb.' OR 'available' to 'available' in EU.
• 14 February 2016: no changes vs. 12 February. 13 February not checked. 15 February not checked.
• 16 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'available' to 'exp. 29 Feb.' in US.
• 75059 Sand Crawler: changed from 'exp. 1 Mar.' to 'exp. 24 Feb.' in EU.
• 75060 Slave I: changed from 'exp. 19 Feb.' to 'available' in EU.
• 75082 Tie Advanced Prototype: changed from 'exp. 30 days' to 'exp. 29 Feb.' in US.
• 75085 Hailfire Droid: changed from 'exp. 17 Mar.' to 'available' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: changed from 'exp. 30 days' to 'exp. 29 Feb.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: changed from 'exp. 25 Feb.' to 'exp. 24 Feb.' in EU.
• 17 February 2016: no changes.
• 18 February 2016
• 75059 Sand Crawler: from 'exp. 24 Feb.' to 'available' in EU. 
• 22 February (19-21: not checked)
• 75059 Sand Crawler: from 'exp. 29 Feb.' to 'exp. 5 Mar.' in US.
• 75082 Tie Advanced Prototype: from 'exp. 29 Feb.' to 'exp. 5 Mar.' in US.
• 75093 Death Star Final Dual: from 'available' to 'exp. 6 Mar.' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: from 'exp. 29 Feb.' to 'exp. 10 Mar.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: from 'exp. 24 Feb.' to 'available' in EU.
• 1 March (22-29: not checked)
• 75059 Sand Crawler: from 'exp. 5 Mar.' to 'available' in US.
• 75082 Tie Advanced prototype: from 'exp. 5 Mar.' to 'available' in US.
• 75093 Death Star Final Dual: from 'exp. 6 Mar.' to 'available' in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: from 'exp. 10 Mar.' to 'exp. 14 Mar.' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: from 'available' to 'exp. 13 Mar.' in US.
• 25 March (2-24: not checked)
• 10240 Ewok Village: from 'available' to 'exp. 30 days' in US.
• 75034 Death Star Troopers: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75035 Kashyyyk Troopers: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75036 Utapau Troopers: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75037 Battle on Seleucami: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75040 General Grievous' Wheel Bike: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75043 AT-AP: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75044 Droid Tri-fighter: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75045 Republic AV-7 Anti-Vehicle Cannon: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75045 Coruscant Police Gunship: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75049 Snowspeeder: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75050 B-Wing: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75051 Jedi Scout Fighter: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75052 Mos Eisley Cantina: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75053 The Ghost: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75054 AT-AT: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75058 MTT: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75060 Slave I: from 'available' to 'exp. 7 Apr. in US.
• 75072 ARC-170 Starfighter: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75076 Republic Gunship: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75077 Homing Spider Droid: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75081 T-16 Skyhopper: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75083 AT-DP: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75084 Wookie Gunship: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75087 Anakin's Custom Jedi Starfighter: from 'available' to 'exp. 21 Apr. in US.
• 75090 Ezra's Speeder Bike: from 'sold out' to RETIRED in US.
• 75095 UCS Tie Fighter: from 'available' to 'exp. 3 Apr. in US.
• 75102 Poe's X-Wing: from 'exp. 14 Mar.' to 'available' in US.
• 75105 Millennium Falcon: from 'exp. 13 Mar.' to 'exp. 3 Apr.' in US.

Conclusions and perceptions
(attention, SPOILER ALERT as regards which vehicles aren't featured in the new Star Wars movie!)

• In 2013 there were 26 new Star Wars sets. All have been retired or at least can't be found on LEGO Shop at Home anymore. 
• In 2014 there were 30 new Star Wars sets. In Europe all of these but the UCS Sand Crawler have already been retired. The Sand Crawler is out of stock until tomorrow (expectedly). The Sand Crawler is also the only available set in the United States. The 'sold out' sets will probably retire soon.
• Whether the Sand Crawler (the last surviving Star Wars set of 2014) will be retired soon, isn't clear. On the one hand, it's a special set (UCS). On the other hand, it isn't featured in The Force Awakens. I recommend you don't wait too long to buy this set, just to be sure. 
• If you happen to find any 2013 or 2014 sets on the shelves of your local toy store, now is probably your last chance to get them. 
• Beginning 2015 there were 20 new Star Wars sets. Remarkably, 9 of them have already retired, 1 sold out (in Europe). Several of the other sets being out of stock and none of them having specific reference to the new movie, it seems likely the remaining half of these sets will be retired soon. If you can find a retired 2015 set in your shop, now is the time. These will probably become collector items, having only been available during 1 year. Out of those sets I personally have highest expectations of 75083 AT-DP. 
• During 2015, 21 sets were issued. 7 of them deal with subjects found in the new movie. For easy reference, these are marked blue in the above schedule. Half of these sets are out of stock in Europe. I personally see this as an early retirement warning (especially for the non-Force-Awakens-sets), but opinions on this may differ. 
• For the sake of completeness: no sets exist for numbers 75026, 75027, 75047 and 75061 to 75071. According to Brickset, 75057 is going to be a 2016 Marvel set (?) and 75098 is going to be a 2016 Star Wars set. 
   

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Last year during the Force Awakens Force Friday push, @Fcbarcelona101 wrote about the new LEGO offerings. I wanted to take a quick look at the new offerings for the new Star Wars prequel Rogue One: A Star Wars story. Oh yeah, that's right, it is a prequel. I know that a lot of people don't want to hear that word associated with Star Wars, but it is what it is.

The first thing I would like to discuss are the Constractions or constructible action figures. There are 3 of them for the Rogue One release. As far as it goes, I'm not convinced of the long term viability of these The first series has started to disappear from shelves, but I don't think it's due to demand. On the other hand, I have seen my kids get really excited for these, so there issome market for them. I just don't think of them as being worth the time or space needed to let them mature. All of the figures in this line are $24.99, which is actually $5 more than the base figures of the same type from last year.

The first offering is the hero Sergeant Jyn Erso figure 75119.

Help the Rebel Alliance take on the Empire with this buildable and highly posable Jyn Erso figure. Featuring a blaster rifle with spring-loaded shooter, wheel-operated arm-swinging battle function, and detachable back-mounted truncheons, this durable figure is just the thing for recreating intense battles from the movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.

• Buildable and highly posable Jyn Erso figure features a blaster rifle with shooting function, an arm-swinging battle function and detachable back-mounted truncheons.
• Load the blaster rifle and fire the spring-loaded shooter.
• Place the truncheons in Jyn's hands and turn the wheel to take a swing at the enemy.
• Move the limbs into any battle pose.
• Sturdy and durable design for intense action play.
• Play out exciting hand-to-hand battles with this skilled soldier from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• This figure offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 7-14.
• Figure stands over 9” (24cm) tall.

First of all, does it bother anyone else that they are calling it a blockbuster 3 months before it's been released? Anyway, as the hero, I am sure that there will be some demand, but the human figures from this line always look a bit questionable. It has inherent action features which seem to limit poseability because the wheel to create the swinging arms doesn't keep them rigid enough to display with arms up. I am sure it could be modified, but why bother? It's never really going to look more human.

Next is the Imperial Assassin Droid with the heart of gold K-2SO 75120

Infiltrate the Empire with buildable and highly posable K-2SO. This former Imperial security droid features a single/double-arm-swinging battle function, tough-looking decorated head and armor elements, and is extra tall for an even more impressive figure. This durable droid is perfect for dangerous missions against the Empire.

• Buildable and highly posable K-2SO figure features single/double-arm-swinging battle function, tough-looking decorated head and armor elements, and an extra-tall frame.
• Activate the single/double-arm-swinging battle function.
• Enter battle with this ominous looking buildable figure.
• Move the limbs into any battle pose.
• Sturdy and durable design for intense action play.
• Play out exciting hand-to-hand combat with this exciting droid from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• This figure offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 9-14.
• Figure stands over 11” (29cm) tall.

If there's one character from this movie that fits this style, it's K-2SO. Like General Grievous from last year, the odd angular, skinny limbs serve to enhance instead of detract, like with the human figures. If there is a winner to be found here, it's him. I guess it will all sort of depend upon the reception of the character once the movie is out in theaters.

The final constructible figure is the Imperial Death Trooper 75121

Defend the Empire’s elite with this buildable and highly posable Death Trooper figure. Featuring a blaster rifle with spring-loaded shooter, blaster pistol with holster and imposing decorated armor elements including a pauldron with attachable ammo pouches, this durable Death Trooper is ready for action.

• Buildable and highly posable Death Trooper figure features a blaster rifle with spring-loaded shooter, blaster pistol with holster and imposing decorated armor elements.
• Load the blaster rifle and fire the spring-loaded shooter.
• Unholster the blaster pistol and get ready for battle.
• Move the limbs into any battle pose.
• Sturdy and durable design for intense action play.
• Recreate amazing battles with this menacing character from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• This figure offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 8-14.
• Figure stands over 10” (26cm) tall.

The armored figures are more excusable than the human figures. Angular plates can be excused for angular armor plates, but it's still kind of awkward to see weird ball joints and gaps. I think that this one will have larger appeal than Jyn, just because some people will want more than 1. Will that translate into greater demand post retirement? I feel like that's not going to materialize in a truly meaningful way.

With the Constraction distractions out of the way, let's take a look at the system scale offerings. In my opinion, if anything is going to hold future gold, it will be in this selection. Minifigure collectorsthat want all of the named characters will need to get almost all of the offerings. The ragtag Rebel crew is scattered across 4 of the 5 Rogue One sets. Unlike the Force Awakens sets from 2015, the majority of these new sets have predominately original designs.

Imperial Assault Hovertank 75152 which retails for $29.99

Help Chirrut battle the troopers patrolling the streets in their Imperial Assault Hovertank. With a rotating and elevating turret gun with dual spring-loaded shooters, elevating side guns, opening two-minifigure cockpit, storage container and ‘hover-look’ transparent wheels, the Imperial Assault Hovertank is the ultimate urban patrol vehicle. Includes 3 minifigures.

• Includes 3 minifigures: Chirrut Îmwe with his fabric cloak and 2 Imperial Hovertank Pilots.
• Features heavy-armor detailing, transparent wheels, rotating and elevating turret gun with dual spring-loaded shooters, storage container and opening two-minifigure cockpit and elevating side guns.
• Fire the spring-loaded shooters to repel the rebels.
• Give it a push and see it “hover” across the floor.
• Weapons include a bow, staff and 2 blasters.
• Also includes electrobinculars
• Recreate fantastic scenes from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 8-12.
• Measures over 3” (8cm) high, 7” (20cm) long and 5” (14cm) wide.

This is a boxy little vessel. It's going to be the most common buy for kids who are receiving Rogue One sets for Christmas this year. I'd expect grandparents who know nothing about Star Wars to pick this one up because it is the cheapest. Depending upon how interesting or popular Donny Yen's character is, this may be a prize winner. If nothing else, 2 new troopers will make army builders happy.

AT-ST Walker 75153 which retails for $39.99

Join the hunt for rebels aboard the AT-ST Walker, featuring posable legs, wheel-activated turning top section, opening cockpit and top hatch revealing a detailed minifigure interior, dual spring-loaded shooters and elevating guns at the front. Includes 3 minifigures.

• Includes 3 minifigures: an AT-ST Driver, Baze Malbus with his heavy blaster and a Rebel Trooper
• Features posable legs, wheel-activated turning top section, opening cockpit and top hatch, detailed minifigure interior, dual spring-loaded shooters and elevating front guns.
• Weapons include a blaster pistol, blaster rifle and Baze's heavy blaster.
• Accessory elements include Baze's backpack and the Rebel Trooper's helmet.
• Recreate fantastic scenes from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 8-14.
• Measures over 9” (24cm) high, 6” (16cm) long and 5” (13cm) wide.

The last time that a system scale AT-ST walker was released was 2007's 7657. Fans of Endor and those with the Ewok Village have been wondering when this classic vehicle would again appear. Of all thesets, this will have the most immediate demand from Original Trilogy fans that want to complete scenes. This set could easily go with Assault on Hoth or Ewok VIllage. Of course, it's also going to fit into Rogue One collections. Strangely, Wal-Mart reduced the cost on this set to $32.83 and Amazon and Target quickly matched them. THis makes an already anticipated set, even more in demand.

TIE Striker 75154 which retails for $69.99

Play out iconic sky battles with the amazing TIE Striker. With large adjustable wings, minifigure cockpit with top and front access, an opening rear storage hold and dual spring-loaded shooters at the front, this amazing model is the perfect opponent for any rebel starfighter. Includes 4 minifigures.

• Includes 4 minifigures: TIE Pilot, Imperial ground crew, Imperial Shoretrooper and a Rebel Trooper in Endor outfit.
• Features large adjustable wings, a minifigure cockpit with top and front access, opening rear storage hold and dual spring-loaded shooters.
• Weapons include a blaster pistol, blaster rifle and a double-barreled blaster (E-22).
• Accessory elements include electrobinoculars and a comlink.
• Recreate fantastic scenes from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 8-14.
• Measures over 2” (6cm) high, 16” (41cm) long and 9” (24cm) wide.

What a strange looking TIE Fighter. I'm not really a fan of this design. This set has no named characters, so it will either be popular as an army builder or unpopular because none of the characters are hard to find. I feel like it's a bit expensive. I'm not a fan of ground crew in sets, because honestly, who wants to play with a guy that refuels the starfighters?

Rebel U-Wing Fighter 75155 Which retails for $79.99

The amazing U-Wing Fighter has all the details you would expect from an authentic Star Wars model, including 4 big engines, an opening minifigure cockpit with transparent lower observation window, opening side doors with pull-out stud shooters, dual spring-loaded shooters at the front, rear storage hold and huge wings that sweep back to create an even bigger model. Includes 5 minifigures.

• Includes 5 minifigures: a U-wing Pilot, Bistan, Jyn Erso, Cassian Andor and a Rebel Trooper.
• Features 4 big engines, an opening minifigure cockpit with transparent lower observation window, opening side doors with pull-out stud shooters, front spring-loaded shooters, rear storage hold and huge sweep-back wings.
• Weapons include 3 blasters and 2 blaster pistols.
• Also includes extra ammo.
• Recreate fantastic scenes from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 8-14.
• Measures over 3” (10cm) high, 17” (44cm) long and 7” (20cm) wide with wings closed, and over 14” (38cm) long and 25” (64cm) wide with wings open.

THis set appeals to me, but it also leaves me a bit cold. There are aspects of it that hit on the parts of my brain that were formed in the late 70's/early 80's. I think it's because it reminds me a bit of Buck Rogers in the 25th century. The ships in that show were designed by Ralph McQuarrie who also did preliminary designs of all of the original Star Wars ships. This ship does seem to fit in with the aesthetic of A New Hope. However I prefer starfighters and this appears to be a troop ship. THis set does have the main character Jyn Erso, and I love the blue flight suit for the pilot. The addition of another alien head mold and another main character will also buoy this set up. I think this ship will be pretty well sought after in the future, as long as it has a significant presence in the film. I doubt this is the last time that we're going to see a Jyn minifigure though, so don't bank all your money on her presence.

Krennic's Imperial Shuttle 75156  which retails for $89.99

Krennic’s Imperial Shuttle is an intimidating Imperial starship. Featuring huge folding wings and opening front and side panels, this amazing model also has an opening minifigure cockpit, detailed hold with seating for 4 minifigures, a rear ramp with blaster storage, dual spring-loaded shooters and retractable landing skids. Recreate epic space battles from the epic movie, Star Wars: Rogue One, or create your own. Includes 5 minifigures plus a Droid.

• Includes 5 minifigures: Pao, Director Krennic, Bodhi Rook and 2 Imperial Death Troopers, plus a K-2SO.
• Features huge folding wings, opening front and side armored panels, opening minifigure cockpit, seating in the hold for 4 minifigures, rear ramp with storage, dual spring-loaded shooters and retractable landing skids.
• Weapons include 2 blasters for the Imperial Death Troopers, Krennic's blaster, Bodhi's blaster pistol and Pao's blaster rifle.
• Accessory elements include special combatbackpacks.
• Recreate fantastic scenes from the blockbuster movie, Star Wars: Rogue One.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 9-14.
• Measures over 17” (45cm) high, 9” (25cm) long and 22” (56cm) wide in flying mode, and over 12” (33cm) high, and 7” (18cm) wide in landing mode.

This set seemed to have the highest degree of pre-release hype for an original design. While the AT-ST was more anticipated by long time fans of the series, the villain's ship seemed to garner a fair proportion of discussion. With the inclusion of 2 Death Troopers or so many named characters, there are many reasons for minifigure fans to buy this set. Many have spoken of how this set hits the right notes that Kylo Ren's Command shuttle failed at last year. With this being the highest price point of the Rogue One labeled vehicles, it's going to be a purchase that will be made for holidays or birthdays. To me, the design is a little uninspired, but it is better than Kylo Ren's shuttle at least.

The Death Star 75159 closes out this list. The retail price of this monstrosity is $499.99.

Reenact amazing scenes from the Star Wars saga with the Empire’s ultimate planet-zapping weapon—the Death Star! With over 4,000 pieces, this fantastic model has a galaxy of intricate and authentic environments, including a superlaser control room, Imperial conference chamber, hangar bay with moving launch rack and Lord Vader’s TIE Advanced with space for Vader inside, Emperor Palpatine’s throne room, Droid maintenance room, detention block, trash compactor, tractor beam, cargo area, turbo laser with spring-loaded shooters and seats for the 2 Death Star Gunners, and 2 movable turbo laser towers. This fantastic set also includes 23 iconic minifigures and 2 Droids to ensure hours of Star Wars battle fun.

• Includes 23 minifigures: Grand Moff Tarkin, Darth Vader, Emperor Palpatine, Imperial Navy Officer, Imperial Officer, 2 Stormtroopers, 2 Death Star Troopers, 2 Emperor's Royal Guards, 2 Death Star Gunners, Death Star Droid, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Chewbacca, Princess Leia, C-3PO, Han Solo, Han Solo (disguise), Luke Skywalker (Tatooine), Luke Skywalker (disguise) and Luke Skywalker (final duel), plus R2-D2, an Imperial Astromech and a Dianoga trash compactor monster.
• Features a superlaser control room, Imperial conference chamber, hangar bay with moving launch rack and detachable TIE Advanced with space for Lord Vader inside, Emperor Palpatine’s throne room, Droid maintenance room, detention block, trash compactor, tractor beam, cargo area, turbo laser with spring-loaded shooters and seats for the 2 Death Star gunners, and 2 movable turbo laser towers.
• Weapons include 3 Lightsabers, 4 blasters, 3 blaster pistols, 4 blaster rifles, 2 force pikes, 2 Force Lightning elements and a bowcaster.
• Load up and fire the turbo laser’s spring-loaded shooters to keep the rebels at bay.
• Maneuver Lord Vader’s TIE Advanced into position and prepare for launch.
• Battle the Royal Guard in the throne room and then take on Palpatine himself!
• Help Leia escape from the detention block and swing to safety with Luke across the chasm!
• Will Obi-Wan shut down the tractor beam and help the rebels defeat the Empire?
• Can you spot the Dianoga trash compactor monster?
• Recreate other unforgettable scenes from the classic Star Wars films.
• The perfect addition to any LEGO® Star Wars collection.
• This set offers an age-appropriate building experience for ages 14 and over.
• Measures over 16” (41cm) high, and 16” (42cm) wide.

Technically, this set is not a part of the Rogue One line up. However, the official launch was slated for the same day, and a lot of the plot of Rogue One seems to indicate a connection with this battlestation. What can one say that hasn't been said about this set many times before? I for one was never convinced of the long term viability of 10188. I felt like it had been released for far too long, and this set has put the nail in its coffin. I would think that all of the back stock of 10188 will serve to keep prices for this set down as well. This set will probably remain a flagship of LEGO Star Wars for more years to come, so proceed with caution.

For promotions, LEGO offered Darth Revan and after he ran out Admiral Yularen. If the Admiral's value wasn't already in the toilet, I'd say you'd start having a hard time selling it. Although, I think customizers will have more interest in using him to make a Thrawn figure now that he's on Rebels. Poor Revan's going to sink and his value's probably going to exist at about 50% of previously at best.

Toys R Us was offering the First Order Officer minifigure. I don't know that there was a ton of demand for him before, but expect it to be severely reduced now.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Overall, I think it's a nice selection of sets. I regret that there are none of the smaller impulse buy sets like last year's Rey's Speeder or a battle pack. The inclusion of mains in most of the sets and the lack of duplication of minifigures will make buyers need to buy multiple sets or a package of all the sets in order to get all the characters that they want. The hype of a new Star Wars movie will be there, but will not be as big as that for The Force Awakens. Just the fact that there's already been a full year of new Star Wars will damp down enthusiasms. Unless this film is bad, we'll probably see better gains on these that TFA,because I just think there will be less of it.

I think that the Shuttle and the U-Wing are going to be the premium sets from this line, but the AT-ST will be the fastest seller on the aftermarket. With the fact that Disney is making a new Star Wars film every year, the companies that license the Star Wars brand will be constantly releasing new sets to keep up. Who knows when/if all of these sets will be remade. We may see reissues down the road, but I feel like it's going to be on a slightly longer timeline. Unless they make a sequel to this prequel, some of these will be thin on the ground in a couple years. That all sounds somewhat positive, but the glut of new Star Wars products may quickly cause people to forget these sets. The best you can hope for is the announcement that some of these characters or ships are appearing in Rebels or a future spinoff.

I look forward to building a few of these and writing reviews. Until then, "May the bricks be with you."

Here is the list of current and upcoming polybags in the LEGO world.  If you've found a polybag that's not on this list, or have any update to give us, please note it in the comments below.  This information is put together from a number of different sources on the Internet, including real world reports. Availability in your area may vary.  This information is US-based.  These are from within the last 12 months.

Polybags Currently Available

Polybags Coming Soon

Polybags That Appear to be Unavailable

If Walmart's $139.99 TIE fighter sale wasn't enough, here's an even better discount.  Amazon.com has discounted the set by 37% to $125.99 for Prime members.

An additional $30 can be saved by using the Amazon Rewards Visa credit card during check-out.  

Click the link below for more information.

https://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-75095-Fighter-Building/dp/B00X3301HI/?tag=brickpicker-20

For more Brickpicker information about this set and more Lego deals, please view the Forum topics below.

http://community.brickpicker.com/announcement/24-today-is-amazon-prime-day/

Convention exclusive. The two words many LEGO collectors dread to hear and several investors become giddy over. To some, these highly exclusive sets with their limited availability can be the Holy Grail of a LEGO collection. They are extremely hard to obtain, and can be very expensive unless you are lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time.

At SDCC 2015 there were three exclusive sets released, all retailing for $40. One from the Marvel superheroes line, "SDCC2015-1: Throne of Ultron," one from Star Wars universe, "SDCC2015-2: Dagobah Mini Build," and one from the DC superheroes line, "SDCC2015-3: Action Comics #1 Superman." Every year when these sets go on sale over the course of the convention, before some sellers have even made their way through the winding lines up to the cashier at the LEGO booth, resellers are already listing them on sites like eBay, and Brick Classifieds. 2015 was no different and both Throne of Ultron and Dagobah Mini Build were being listed on eBay for between $100-$120, thee times the retail price. A 300% return on investment is amazing for any LEGO set and after 12 months these sets are still holding strong in the same price range but the prices are slow starting to climb and will probably be near $150 by the end of 2016. 

Never forget to clean the HTML code and double check your content before publishing an article!

The universe of LEGO Star Wars is changing. Some of the changes may be too subtle to notice at first, but it began more than a year ago. Before we look into the changes taking place now, and influencing the future, let us take a look at the way things have always been.

Historically the LEGO licensing of the Star Wars brand has always been consistent. Star Wars had a three-year cycle between movies starting with The Phantom Menace in 1999, the year that LEGO acquired the rights. There were theatrical releases of Star Wars films in 2002, 2005, and 2008. Three years was sufficient for LEGO to create new sets and visit new ideas. Enough time passed to fully explore the themes presented in each film, and supplement them with Original Trilogy sets. In 2008, The Clone Wars presented an opportunity for an ongoing series to promote and stimulate sales of sets. The continued Media support gave the creators time to revisit and update older sets. The continued use of the same, or similar vehicles, allowed The LEGO Group to refine older designs, while simultaneously experimenting with a few new concepts.

TLG created sets based on The Old Republic and The Yoda Chronicles. Those sets that performed poorly post retirement. Star Wars: Rebels received a limited number of sets. Presumably LEGO learned from the lower popularity of Intellectual Properties that were not live action Star Wars films. Each time that Lucasfilm expanded the brand, LEGO was there. (Look for the Freebuilder sets on clearance at stores near you within the next year)

There was no pressing for LEGO to completely turn over all of the available products. They could phase out the previous film slowly to prepare for the next one. Original Trilogy sets could bridge the gap between the last of the previous film and the first of the new.

That's most of LEGO Star Wars history.  Before we proceed, let's take one last detour to the not-too-distant past. December 2014, the Millennium Falcon 7965 and X-Wing 9493 retired after nice, long runs: the TIE Fighter 9492 had also retired only a few months prior. The resellers were prepared for steady gains, because collectors that missed out were scrambling to find something that would fill a collection. It should have been at least 2 years before the next version of these iconic, and frequently remade, ships hit stores again. June 2015 rolled around and a very similar Millennium Falcon was leaked. The steady growth stalled and then fell. A new X-Wing and TIE Fighter also accompanied the Falcon, and the values stalled (momentarily) for their recently departed relatives. In December 2015, a bunch of Star Wars sets that had only been out for a year unexpectedly retired instead of reaching the average 18 month life span.

In my opinion, the one year life cycle will not be an anomaly, it will become the new normal. We live in a universe where Disney is going to be releasing one Star Wars movie a year for the foreseeable future. For the first time in LEGO history, a new film will demand new product every Christmas. Long time collectors will want the new ships and characters, and new collectors will want whatever is most current. Turnover will be accelerated. I foresee the last of the Rebels packaged sets retiring in June 2016.

Going forward, I believe that we'll see predominately Sequel Trilogy and Anthology sets. Refreshes will come, but they will be aligned with the film releases. Rogue One should facilitate the return of classic Original Trilogy sets. So, people who went deep on AT-ATs should be prepared for a quick return of this popular vehicle, and plan accordingly. The new version will probably have Stormtroopers and/or Scouts instead of Snowtroopers.

We are less likely to see the return of Clone Wars or Prequel Trilogy sets. Some PT will be released, but they will be fewer and further apart. The fans that were kids in the PT era will have aged and become AFOLs in this new universe. They may be on the lookout for neo-classic PT sets. I'd almost expect some movement on these in the coming years. People who snapped up discounted Jedi Interceptors, Grievous Wheelbikes and other "Hero" vehicles with main characters should see good returns. The 75019 AT-TE and the 75021 Republic Gunship which featured prominently in both the Clone Wars and two of the Prequel Trilogy, are likely to gain demand.

LEGO has also shown they are willing to release variations within a year; with the release of both 75102 Poe's X-Wing and 75149 Sacking of Jakku, we will have 2 concurrent X-Wings on shelves. (Although my force sense says that the Sacking of Jakku will be a store exclusive.) Some people are even speculating about a third X-Wing, a classic one, for the launch of Rogue One. Although I think that's less likely to happen in 2016.

In summary, my intuition tells me that we will see faster turnover (to keep up with the new films), fewer sets from movies that do not feature events or vehicles in the new films, and potentially faster remakes of popular ships specifically because they will be featured in an upcoming films. We're also less likely to see Prequel Trilogy sets in heavy rotation as Disney moves forward with OT era and ST era sets.

What does this mean for the future? "Difficult to see . . . Always in Motion is the future." We will need to look at new factors. Look for the one offs. If there is an important character that doesn't make it out of the movie alive, any set with that character will become a key later on. If there is a vehicle that is used prominently in a single film, it will become desireable later. Rey's Speeder will do nicely post retirement. It is well made, represents the vehicle nicely and is unlikely to be used in another film. It's also a cheap set that many will have ignored. It will be revisited eventually, because LEGO is never completely done with remakes, but it will be years, unlike the TIE Fighter, X-Wing, Millennium Falcon, AT-AT, etc. Will the old Han in 75105 be enough to lift that set up when another Millennium Falcon will (almost) definitely be out in 18 months? It's possible. . .

Looking at recently retired, or in production Prequel Trilogy sets the Jedi Interceptors (75038, 75135) and Grievous Wheel Bike (75040) are likely to be steady gainers. The Naboo Fighter (75092) and Sith Infiltrator (75096) will probably fly under the radar for a little while before picking up steam when fans realize that they missed their last chance at retail. Did anyone notice that the AAT 75080 quietly retired? Scene builders will want some of these, and won't be able to get them from retail. The Republic Gunship and AT-TE (75019 and 75021) will probably be highly sought in the near future.

Only time will tell if my predictions are right. I feel strongly that the old model has been destroyed by the (Disney) Empire. For better or worse, we should anticipate changes. In the past, OT sets were the safest bets, but with the anthology films coming, we'll see more and more of those. In addition, We'll likely see some movement on a few sleeping dogs. Imagine a Han Solo film or even one about Boba Fett without a hint of Jabba the Hutt. Unlikely I think. Now, imagine those disappointing Jabba's Palace and Sail Barge sets when TLG makes a smaller "Encounter with Jabba" set.

Really, it is better to anticipate change than to be caught unaware and have to catch up. If nothing else, it's all food for thought.

One addendum, premium sets like the UCS sets will always have their place and demand. That is unless The LEGO Group continues to dilute the brand with inferior playsets or future remakes.

May the bricks be with you . . . always.

After a somewhat long absence from writing articles, I decided that a good way to try and get back into the rhythm was to revisit one of my 2013 articles, The LEGO December Effect.

For those of you who have not had the time to read the previous article, back in 2013 I noticed an interesting price trend for the most expensive sets: they seemed to take a big deep in value in the month of December. Back then, I decided to compile some data for a few of the most expensive sets at the time and do a comparison between their November and December value. The table below is the one I originally used.

It is pretty apparent that a majority of the sets in the list dipped quite significantly in the month of December, with the Eiffel Tower dropping a whopping 33% alone. However, it is important to remember that these expensive sets also tend to have the lowest sales in terms of quantity, a factor that result in one out of the norm sale to affect the set’s value in the Price Guide.

Back then some theorized that one of the possible reasons for this deep in price could be that AFOLs, by far the most likely group to spend hundreds of dollars in these sets, put a temporary stop in their set spending in order to prepare for the holiday season.

I also noticed that there seemed to be an increase in supply for these sets in the months leading up to and including December. This coupled with the above theory about collector spending gave a pretty decent explanation for the “December Effect” at the time.

A couple of years have passed and I honestly regret not keeping track of this and analyzing it on a yearly basis, as the more data we had the easier it would be to determine if it was a fluke or an actual recurrent event. But, no point in worrying about what could have been while there is still time to show what happened in the last holiday season.

The table below includes the same sets I researched back in 2013 and some others that have since retired or significantly increased in value. They are sorted from Largest to Smallest set value.

Surprised? I certainly am. While a plurality of the sets in the table still decreased in value, the number of sets that didn’t is as close as it could be without being the same (12 vs. 11). More significant is the fact that the magnitude of the dips in value seems to have been smaller in this past year, with none of the sets decreasing by more than 10%.

Something crossed my mind while I was looking at this table. Could the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens have generated enough buzz that interested for older UCS sets was impacted?

Looking at the average decrease in price from November to December shows that while all the sets in the table aggregate to around (1.16%), Star Wars sets decreased at a lower rate (0.75%) relative to the (1.70%) of the remaining sets. For reference, the numbers in my last post were pretty much even at (8.3%)

While there seems to be a small variance between Star Wars and other sets this time around, it is very hard for me to say that this is completely due to the release of the new movie. If the non-SW sets had performed similar to the way they did in 2012, it would be easier to make that point, but that wasn’t the case.

In conclusion, it seems that the “December Effect” was nowhere near as strong this year as it was the year I originally noticed it. Clearly, we need way more data to determine if it is even a thing, but for that we will have to, once again, wait until next year!

Thanks for reading! You can revisit one of my 2013 articles, The LEGO December Effect to gain more insight on this topic.

The Brickpicker Brick Index was updated recently. This index gives an indication of the movement in value of each set based upon the previous 6 months of sales data from Ebay.

You can review the sets by theme if you like, but @Jeff Mack has accumulated the top 20 performers for the last 6 months on the landing page. I'd like to take a look at the data and see what it tells us. First, let's take a look at the data that is presented. Each set is ranked by what percentage of value it has increased in the past 6 months. There's a handy graph of that period of time showing a whole dollar value on the Y Axis and months expressed numerically on the X.

A cursory overview of the data shows us that this table is very heavily weighted towards Star Wars. 75% (15) of the top 20 are Star Wars sets. 10% (2) are Super Heroes and LEGO Movie, Ninjago, and Creator each make a single entry to close out the remaining 15%. Does this mean that Star Wars is the only way to go to ensure maximum profits? Let's take a look. Data without analysis can lead to bad decisions.

The biggest earner in the list is 75048 The Phantom. With a monstrous 128+% increase in the past 6 months, it came out swinging. Original retail on this set was $24.99. For many months, it was available at Amazon/Target/Wal-Mart for $19.99. Current price guide value is $46.73. This set is a prominent part of the Star Wars Rebels IP and has one popular character who is only found in this set.

Rank #1 75048-1 The Phantom   128.84%

Next on our list is a set that was looked down upon for most of its retail shelf life. It lived with an almost permanent discount of $19.99 from a $24.99 retail. Now it lives in the $41+ zone. I think a lot of people put off buying this set always assuming that there would be another time and time ran out. You get an interesting vehicle from a pivotal scene in Revenge of the Sith with 2 hero minifigures. Both of the figures are unique to this set and the Grievous alone is selling for almost the MSRP of this set.

Rank #2 75040-1 General Grievous' Wheel Bike   115.83%

In a race to the finish between 75054 and 75055, the AT-AT 75054 sold out first. For a time, you could get a slight discount. Within days of selling out at retail it was already selling at 50%-60% above the retail of $99.99. It's now struggling to reach $200, which most expect to happen by summer.

Rank #3 75054-1 AT-AT   98.18%

Number 4 on our list is the 75038 Jedi Interceptor. This one has 2 hero minifigures in the form of Anakin Skywalker and the updated R2-D2 minifigure. It originally retailed for $24.99 and seems to have been selling for that amount up through retirement. It's now selling in the $48 range. The only reason that it doesn't outrank the similarly priced 75040 and 75048 is because it sold better at retail and was not as discounted. (75135 is bound to drive the price of this set up as people try to complete their hero pairs.)

Rank #4 75038-1 Jedi Interceptor   96.05%

The Ant-Man Final battle is the first non Star Wars set on our list. This set went under a lot of radars, Within 6 months of release, it was done. It started life with production problems and disappeared without a whisper. The growth of this set is probably not done. Limited production, continued media support for the character, and no forthcoming reissues will keep driving buyers to this set.

Rank #5 76039-1 Ant-Man Final Battle   95.72%

There's a saying that a rising tide raises all boats. The interesting thing about this set is that since it was already rare and had retired almost 2 years ago. It's value was already much higher than the $9.99 retail price of the set. The movie hype in December appears to have nearly doubled the price again. That tide raised the high as well as the low.

Rank #6 75011-1 Tantive IV & Alderaan   95.13%

As mentioned previously, the Imperial Star Destroyer 75055 barely lost the race for sold out to the AT-AT 75054. It had a higher price to begin with and also lived with a semi-permanent discount. It is competing neck and neck with the AT-AT on the race to $200. The only reason that the AT-AT is higher on the list is because it started at a lower MSRP. Both of these large vehicles are on the same trajectory, and the Star Destroyer is less likely to be remade as soon.

Rank #7 75055-1 Imperial Star Destroyer   85.75%

Number 8 is yet another recently retired Star Wars set. The Snowspeeder 75049 was a $29.99 set that could frequently be found with a $5 discount. When it and the AT-AT retired at the same time, demand for one increased demand for the other. Demand has lifted this set up to the $50 range, even with another Snowspeeder soon to be available in the Assault on Hoth set. If another AT-AT returns to shelves without this corresponding vehicle, look for it to return to this list.

Rank #8 75049-1 Snowspeeder   85.17%

The Microfighters Millennium Falcon was existing somewhat above retail. A lot of people had been dismissive of the entire Microfighters line, but the first series gained some traction. The Millennium Falcon had the distinction of having a hero minifigure and it is the most iconic vehicle in the series. When the Force Awakens was released, people on a budget looked for an alternative to a $150 set. Demand pushed the value up, and will probably maintain the price for a while to come. Kids and fans have come to accept and enjoy the aesthetic.

Rank #9 75030-1 Millennium Falcon   79.09%

Halfway through the list, we come to a set that surprised many. It's a large exclusive that only really fits in with an unprofitable theme. Not a lot of people were buying this set. Anyone who wanted it put it off because there would always be time later. Large exclusives tend to have a certain cache. The question that remains is, is this increase sustainable? By all accounts it is a fun build. People who want something unique will migrate to this set.

Rank #10 70810-1 MetalBeard's Sea Cow   73.37%

Wait, a Ninjago set made the list? Did the poles reverse themselves? Are we in the end of days? is Ronin's R.E.X. a sign that everything we know is wrong? Well, probably not. This set is still widely available at retail, so there's no reason for it to sell above retail, and it doesn't. This set made the list because sales were bad.It sold for roughly 40% of retail price and has increased to about 80% of retail in the ebay marketplace. Anyone contemplating buying this set at retail might as well hand $10 to a stranger and walk away.

Rank #11 70735-1 Ronin R.E.X.   72.48%

The ARC-170 fighter had a short life. It lived on shelves for less than a year. It sold many times for below retail. It was part of the second series and came from the less popular prequel trilogy. It had a lot of things against it, which probably led to less production and less hoarding. It seems like Microfighters are the little engine that could on this list. Frequently overlooked and underestimated. Could this be a sign that the Star Wars Constraction figures will surprise many?

Rank #12 75072-1 ARC-170 Starfighter   68.80%

Next up, we have a Star Wars playset. The smart money says that playsets don't do as well as ships. Well, that's partially true. Look at all of the other recently retired ships that outpaced this one in % increase. The Mos Eisley Cantina was also selling below retail before retirement (Noticing a distinct trend here.) When it retired, it jumped up above retail and continued to increase. This set has a large number of minifigures (8) with a bigfig creature and a small vehicle. It truly is a nice set, and will likely capture buyers for years unless they make another cantina set.

Rank #13 75052-1 Mos Eisley Cantina   67.39%

Number 14 on our list is the second Super Heroes set, DC's Batboat Harbor Pursuit. A 66% gain sounds like a good thing. There's some problems with the appearance of this set on our list. This set was released at the same time as Ant-Man's final battle, so is this another early EOL that jumped up big? Nope. This set is currently available at retail. For a long time, sellers on Ebay were selling it for significantly below retail. The jump in value can be attributed to it now selling for almost retail. Is this an indication of post EOL performance? It's unlikely, unless you assume that it will sell for close to retail after it retires.

Rank #14 76034-1 Batboat Harbor Pursuit   66.25%

3/4 of the way through our list we have the Ghost. This is the single most used vehicle in Star Wars Rebels. This set was easily found on Ebay for a significant discount from retail. It was unpopular with resellers and suffered from not being a set from a live action Star Wars movie. Despite the fact that it had an average length shelf life, its retirement seemed to catch people off guard. With continued support in media, this set should continue to show growth, but it's unlikely to have the significant gain that it received just returning to MSRP.

Rank #15 75053-1 The Ghost   63.85%

The droid gunship honestly surprised me when I saw it on this list. Sure, it's recently retired, sure it's Star Wars, but it's a non-hero vehicle from a minor scene in the prequel trilogy. Looking at the data, it seems that this set took a significant dip from retail, and all of its gains were just to put it back on an even footing with its original MSRP. 

Rank #16 75042-1 Droid Gunship   62.88%

Number 17 is an anomaly. Not because of how poorly it was doing before, but because it was a set that had already increased since it retired a year ago. When this Target exclusive set retired in Dec. 2014 it had a retail price tag of $39.99. A year later it was hovering in the $60 range before receiving another boost above $90. In this case instead of the rising tide saw, let's consider the words of Walt Disney "Quality will out." As collectors scoop up 75135 and 75038, they'll remember this one and realize that it's probably not getting a refresh anytime soon. Is it on track to match 7661? Hard to tell, but if the clones taught us anything, fans seem to like a rainbow of the same thing.

Rank #17 9494-1 Anakin's Jedi Interceptor   60.11%

Approaching the end, 90% of the way through, we find a battle pack. Battle packs are cheap, small, easy to store and frequently found on clearance. This battle pack has the virtue of being composed of screen accurate Original Trilogy troopers. It was the strongest contender of the recently retired battle packs for future growth and it found it. It's the same story though. The starting position of this set was ~20% below retail. Many will have gotten this set from the Wal-Mart clearances, so will realize even better returns than shown here.

Rank #18 75034-1 Death Star Troopers   58.82%

Number 19 on our list is a true representative of the rising tide theory. This set retired 2 years ago. It languished below retail since it retired until the Force Awakens came along and propped it up. Instead of being somewhere around $5 below retail, it gained $15 above retail. Honestly, not the performance vector that anyone should be looking for. It's a 2 year hold time to gain an actual ~35%.

Rank #19 75017-1 Duel on Geonosis   58.17%

Our final entry on the list is also not Star Wars. The Creator 3 in 1 Mountain Hut quietly retired without fanfare. The data indicates that its value dipped 25% below retail in the late summer and stayed there all fall long. Post EOL it has recovered the loss and added 20% to its value. I looked at some of the other recently retired Creator 3 in 1 sets and saw a similar trajectory. A low increase in value, but it was there.

Rank #20 31025-1 Mountain Hut   57.60%

Looking at this list, we see a lot of Star Wars sets that retired a short time ago. Their initial post EOL bump was probably accelerated by the release of The Force Awakens. Many of these sets were living below retail before they retired. It's easy to make significant gains when the first gain that a set makes is to get back to its original MSRP. 10-25% value jump when it disappears from Amazon or Wal-Mart would be standard. We're not even taking into account the significant clearance reductions on most of these sets. I am not discounting the money that was and is to be made on these sets. People buying at discount cleared and are poised to receive greater profits.

Before I end here, I'd like to give a special nod of the head and tip of the cap to the set that's 91% more influential than Kanye West. For folks who are wondering where their favorite Tumbler falls, I found it in the DC Super Heroes theme in second place behind Batboat Harbor Pursuit. Since this set never really got discounted, that's where the starting value falls and it has since increased by over 50%. I guess it's time to start telling everyone how right you were to buy these at the last minute.

76023-1 The Tumbler   52.32%

In the final analysis, what does all of this tell us? The status is actually quo. Good sets from a popular series that retire will increase. Rare sets and exclusives will increase, and things that routinely sell for significantly below retail will sometimes sell for retail. Most of the sets on the list were not exclusives, and the biggest exclusive retirements were not the largest % gainers. The trajectory of the Sea Cow and the Tumbler are good, but not worrisome as far as the rise of the proverbial bubble. (Does anyone remember pogs or those worthless Billy Ripken f*ck face cards doubling and redoubling in value so quickly?)

It will be interesting to see in a couple months what the largest increases are. I'd also love to see what the biggest losers for the same timeframe is. I bet it would be the newest things released.

Here is the list of current, former, and upcoming polybags in the LEGO world.  If you've found a polybag that's not on this list, or have any update to give us, please note it in the comments below.  This information is put together from a number of different sources on the Internet, including real world reports.  Availability in your area may vary.  This information is US-based.

Polybags Currently Available

Polybags Coming Soon

Polybags That Have Not Been Sighted

Polybags No Longer Available

Welcome to first monthly entry of the Top 10 Selling sets as listed by LEGO S@H. As you may remember, this blog started as a weekly posting, but we figured it would be better to compile the data throughout the month and publish it all in one time. This reduces the probability of having less than 10 sets every other week.

How does this Blog work?

1. While the LEGO Shop at Home best sellers list is updated daily, we will be updating it every month (Hopefully by the end of the 1st week of the next month).
2. The list includes only sets. Minifigures, keychains, Pick a Brick and other products are excluded.
3. I am keeping an Excel spreadsheet with each set that appears on the list, its daily placing and a tally to determine the positions at the end of the month. 
4. For now, this is a US based best sellers list. 

Pretty simple!

Top 10 Best Selling Sets (LEGO S@H)

#1: 40201 Valentines Cupid Dog - Buy Now! 

This small "seasonal" set managed to crush the competition pretty easily during February, and it is really not hard to figure out why. The set itself was not expensive, and with Valentine's Day being one of the most important holidays of Q1 it is pretty understandable this managed to be in the top for most of the month.

#2: 75102 Poe's X-Wing - Buy Now! 

Poe's X-Wing has been creating waves in the forums for a while now, with a portion of members thinking it will have an early retirement due to the release of the blue X-Wing, and another group thinking that the shortage is due to flippers gobbling up the inventory. There is no way to know which one is right with 100% certainty, but I would really be surprised if LEGO decides to retire this set this early into its life. If they do, however, it has the potential to offer amazing returns.

#3: 10251 Brick Bank - Buy Now!

The newest modular in the street has shown up consistently in the Top 10. Obviously, the fact that it is a new release has helped, as AFOLs eager to expand their modular town rushed to acquire it. Personally, I think this set is an outstanding addition to the line, and expect it to continue to show up in the list for at least a few more weeks.

#4: 75827 Firehouse Headquarters - Buy Now!

Ah, the Ghostbuster's HQ. Much like the Brick Bank, being a new release has definitely propped up this set over the past few weeks, but even then it is pretty amazing to me that it has hovered in the Top 5 for as long as it has given its particularly high price tag. The model itself looks GREAT in person, and the minifigures are sure to be hits with GB fans and collectors. A sure winner in my book whenever it happens to retire (which I acknowledge is several years away).

#5: The Big Bang Theory - Buy Now!

The Big Bang Theory. Some people have a lot of confidence in the set, while an (at least) just as big group think it will not do as good. The fact that LEGO had to discount this set relatively early into its life makes me think that it really is not as popular as they originally expected, and also the reason it has been in the Top 10 list for the last several days of February.

#6: Heavy Haul Train - Buy Now!

+

Another beneficiary of the LEGO S@H round of discounts. Trains tend to do pretty well in the secondary market, but it seems that the last couple City themed trains have taken a little while to produce significant returns.

#7: Sea Plane - Buy Now!

This is one of those smaller sets that appear on this list from time to time that I honestly have no idea about. Unless people are ordering this in order to reach the free shipping threshold, I honestly have no clue about why these would be so popular.

#8: New York City - Buy Now!

The flagship set of the new Skylines sub-theme of the Architecture line. This is by far the most appealing of the ones that have been released so far, and the only one that I would honestly spend the amount of money LEGO is asking for them. The rest are Ok in my opinion, but they just seem to expensive for what you get. 

#9: Birthday Table Decoration - Buy Now!

This is a pretty nice and small release. Unlike the Sea Plane, I can understand why sets like this one and most of the seasonally themed sets tend to do well in sales. They are relatively cheap and make for unique everyday kind of gifts.

#10: Architecture Studio - Buy Now!

Finally we get to Architecture Studio. You all probably remember the craziness that this set generated when this set was originally released. Quick flipping this set was very common and decently profitable, so inventories ran dry relatively fast and as far as I can remember we spent at least several weeks without seeing one in the wild or online. Eventually though, the set's popularity made LEGO bring it back for what seems as a more "traditional" production run, and it has since become less appealing to short term investors. Still, you can bet it will be very popular once it disappears completely from the shelves.

Thanks for reading!

The Proposal
Looking at one and done themes, both in terms of one wave and an availability of one year (and change), can an investor learn anything? Short answer: maybe. Long answer: maaaaaaybe. I'd like to spend a little time talking about the Castle theme. Availability from brickset.com lists May 28^th, 2013 to December 22^nd, 2014. Yes, I know this might be stretching the aforementioned 'one and change' but actual production was likely much closer to one year with the later EOL date the result of stock being depleted after the final production run. Let's get started...

The Forums
The Castle 2013 thread was essentially a discussion of why the 2013 was inferior to Kingdoms and other earlier iterations. Little talk of investment potential or future projections, and not too much chatter even as EOL approached. Many liked the dragon in Dragon Mountain. Some didn't.

The 70404 King's Castle thread was similar. It started with a bang – a divisive set from the get go with some forum 'bantering' about the overall 'kiddiness' or 'juniorization' of the set as well as 'discussion' in the form of wild speculation (even before the set was released!). I was pleased to see I posted in that thread! Go me! It wasn't my best post, but certainly not my worst. I give it a B- grade. (See it on page 1 of 3 in the 70404 thread). The best information that can be gleaned from the paltry three pages came courtesy of J-Mack, who (I'm paraphrasing) thought King's Castle would hit $200 tops. Amazon has it at $199 as of mid-February 2016 so it turns out the guy might have a pretty good understanding of the Lego secondary market. One factor that might prove him wrong – well, not wrong, per se, but perhaps too conservative, is the lack of a similar replacement on the horizon. Nexo Knights doesn't seem like much of a direct competitor, so perhaps Christmas 2016 will see prices somewhere between $220-240?

The CAGR (US) Data taken Feb. 2016

I think the Gatehouse Raid got a little boost from the fact that it can be used to expand 70404, and was a little surprised that Dragon Mountain wasn't a bit stronger. King's Castle hit the sweet spot. While 70404 was probably harder for most folks to get on clearance, I think it is reasonable to assume that many got it with a solid discount and have had the opportunity to double their initial investment. As for the smaller sets, I think I take away from this that money could only be easily made with deep clearance sales. I recently passed on some of the smallest set from the Pirates theme at nearly 50% off, but did end up biting at 75% off. Of course, smart investors can always bundle some of the smaller sets with 70404 but my personal experience selling King's Castle over the holidays was 9 solo sets to 2 bundles.

What Did We Learn?
The forums didn't really provide a lot of useful information. In fact, the forums might have dissuaded folks from buying these to their own detriment. I think we also learned that the largest set in the theme provided the best total profit as well as the best CAGR%. It tells me I should probably get out there and get the last of the Brick Bounty sets still in the wild, for one, and that I can probably pass on the other sets in the Pirates line (no good comparison to Dragon Mountain or even Gatehouse Raid). It also helps me look at other themes more critically to try and maximize profit.

Veegs

The Pitch: I was listening to Sting's 'Demolition Man' and patting myself on the back for getting some Demolition Site sets about $60 CAD off retail when I thought others might be interested in my thoughts on Sting and Lego. Seeing how past construction-type sets fared seemed like a good point of comparison, and I had a suitable soundtrack. Unfortunately, the lyrics are a bit foreboding considering I am advocating for Demolition sets, but if nothing else they forced me to be a bit conservative in my future estimates.

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-6100272-City-Demolition-Site/dp/B00NHQFECI/?tag=brickpicker-20

The Demolition Site (60076) looks a little 'kiddy' to me, but it isn't all that different from Construction Site (7633) and that has done pretty well on the aftermarket. The crane could be a little bigger and the demolition building could be fleshed out a little, but overall it is a great set to get cool yellow construction vehicles at not a bad price. With the last flasgship construction set 7633 hitting a high of $243 USD, it seems reasonable that 60076 should do well despite a smaller piece count and not being quite as eye-pleasing (at least to me) of its predecessor. Even a conservative projection of perhaps $170-180 USD makes buying Demolition Site on sale a fairly low risk, solid investment. While it will likely never be the best gainer in your portfolio, there is nothing wrong with solid, low risk options, too. Availability beyond the spring might be online only for a lot of Canadians, as Costco had them this holiday season (and likely won't next) as well as Canadian Tire. Now that Wal-Mart Canada has started clearancing these out (my last three were at $50 CAD, which tickled me pink) it seems unlikely they will get a massive restock of the Demolition line, leaving TRU. Availability in your market might be different, but this is a set I wouldn't pass over with a decent sale.

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-City-Demolition-Excavator-Truck/dp/B00NHQFELY/?tag=brickpicker-20

You should still be able to find the Excavator set (60075) at retail even though it is listed as 'Sold Out' with a discount on Shop at Home, which is generally a solid precursor to the cherished 'retired product' tag. It compares well with the 4203 Excavator & Truck (part of the Mining subtheme from 2012) which is trending up at the moment but has still had a rather disappointing post-EOL performance. This is likely due to the Mine subtheme having a bit of a longer shelf life relative to some other City subthemes as well as the fact that the Demolition subtheme has a very, very similar excavator set that essentially replaced the earlier version. So far I'm not selling you much on this, but there are a couple of factors that might indicate this set will do a little better than its predecessor. First, unlike the rest of the Demolition subtheme, this set appears to be going/gone at least several months earlier (possibly around a year, if it follows the Arctic pattern) than the other sets in the theme. If end users went gaga over the Arctic Supply Plane, which isn't all that enticing, I have reason to believe the shorter lifespan will lead to an overall better/faster performance that 4203. Secondly, 4203 is starting to grow (up nearly 15% in the latest Brickfolio update), so I believe a lot of inventory that might be sold at or close to MSRP has been absorbed by end users (i.e. Timmy or Tanya – want to give both genders a chance to buy sets at secondary market prices). I jumped at 35% off, which seemed like a big enough discount for a short-run set that comes from a reliable theme.

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-6100248-City-Demolition-Bulldozer/dp/B00NHQFEN2/?tag=brickpicker-20

I'm sure there are kids (who grow into adults) out there who don't like bulldozers, but I don't know any – and I'm not sure I want to. Bulldozers populate kids books, sandboxes and grubby hands; obviously The Lego Group has done enough market research to realize kids would also like them in Lego form (BP has 18 entries under 'dozer' so it has some history). The 2007 Technic Bulldozer is particularly awe inspiring, but for sake of comparison, the current set most closely matches the 7685 Dozer from 2009. It peaked at just under $90 ($89.60) which is fantastic for a $39.99 set that (like all City sets) can be pretty easy to get on sale during its shelf life. Given that Lego investing is quite a bit different than '09, a doubling of MSRP still seems possible. Of course, given the popularity of the subject matter, it seems almost certain more will be made that will be very similar, but there should be a window of a year or two to move the current bulldozer with limited risk. Even with the 2015 dozer hurting the sale prices of 7685, it is still trading at around double MSRP, which tells me there will probably always be some demand for older dozers even if a remake comes a little earlier than investors would like. Given the state of the Canadian dollar, I think I would start buying at a 30% discount or better.

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-City-Demolition-Service-Truck/dp/B00NHQFIHY/?tag=brickpicker-20

The Service Truck 60073 is my pick for being an EOL surprise. It screams 'I am the second coming of the Logging Truck!' to me. I frankly don't know how anyone can create a realistic construction/demolition site without a porta-potty. I can't find a previous set that seems to capture the play value and display value as well as this little guy in previous construction subthemes, and when I look it it I just get a great vibe. I won't be surprised if this has the overall best ROI% two years from now. I stocked up on a few at 33% off and will continue to add them when on sale.

Overall

Yellow construction vehicles at minifigure scale have been popular enough to make appearances regularly, so one must always be ready for a rehash of the theme, but they have been spaced out roughly 3-6 years. If the remainder of the Demolition sets listen to the wants of investors and retire themselves in Q4 this fall, there should hypothetically be at least a couple years to absorb demand. Of course, investors must take precautions – buying more than you think you can sell in the next couple of years might backfire. When I invest in City sets I do so knowing I have a responsibility to scout rumors of upcoming sets and to act accordingly. If you are a long term holder and/or don't have the time to take 'hits' of Brickpicker weekly/daily/hourly/minute-ly, City might be more trouble than its worth. That, and the best discounts I tend to get on City sets are in brick & mortar locations, so 'prospecting' is also generally needed and might not be possible for you in your location or life situation. For those that are still interested, I think these four sets are a worthy add to your portfolio and will diversify it nicely.

Veegs

 There have been many recent articles, all over the web, in local papers and on the radio. They're saying that LEGO investing is better than gold. It's sensationalist. It excites the imagination. It sounds easy. These articles point up the sets that have increased in value many times above their initial costs. Dreamers sweep store shelves expecting instant returns and easy money. Conventional wisdom says that you'll never lose money on LEGO, it will always be worth at least what you bought it for. What if it's not?

I'd like to take a journey through the dusty backrooms of stores and the dark corners of investor's storage areas to look at some themes that proved to be so unpopular that if their demand and value hasn't remained flat, it actually got worse. These are themes that got the same market push as every other theme, but failed to capture the target audience.

Let's take a look at some licensed themes from recent history:

The first theme that we'll take a look at is Prince of Persia. Disney's attempt to turn a video game franchise into a profitable film franchise. LEGO released 6 Sets consisting of 7569 Desert Attack, 7570 The Ostrich Race, 7571 The Fight for the Dagger, 7572 Quest Against Time, 7573 Battle of Alamut, and 20017 Dagger Trap Polybag. All combined, this theme sold at retail for a total of $190.95 (Pre Tax of course,) the current value of these sets averages to $178.75. That's a return of 94% of the initial investment. It would be worse if not for the Polybag, which I calculated at retail of free because I couldn't find any data about cost.  (So, I assumed it was free.)

The second licensed theme that we'll discuss is The Lone Ranger. (Personally, I loved these sets and wanted more. {if I could get them on steep discount.}) Disney released the Lone Ranger to poor reception and poor reviews. The days of the Western might be dead, and this theme sure did seem like a nail in the coffin. This theme consisted of 6 sets and 2 Polybags. They are 79106 Cavalry Builder set (How they can be cavalry without horses I don't know. I guess Artillery is confusing,) 79107 Comanche Camp, 79108 Stagecoach Escape, 79109 Colby City Showdown, 79110 Silver Mine Shootout, 79111 Constitution Train Chase, 30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car, and 30261 Tonto's Campfire. The combined retail total before tax is $291.92 but when I get the average sold price for the last 6 months on Bricklink they sold for a grand total of $283. Slightly better than Prince of Persia with 97% remaining value.

It's probably not LEGO's fault that these themes died on the vine. Some might argue that if the source material had been better received, there would be greater demand on the aftermarket. It's a fair argument, but you could also point out that if LEGO had done a better job on the sets, they might have succeeded despite the failures of the original properties. If you think it's the fault of the source material, let's take a look at a LEGO owned theme that they got very wrong.

For our non licensed theme  we'll look at the horror of Galaxy Squad. It is a continuation/expansion of the classic Space theme. Science Fiction has been popular for a long time, and little boys have always wanted to be an astronaut and kill space bugs. This theme had a whopping 10 sets and 2 polybags. The sets are 70700 Space Swarmer, 70701 Swarm Interceptor, 70702 Warp Stinger, 70703 Star Slicer, 70704 Vermin Vaporizer, 70705 Bug Obliterator, 70706 Crater Creeper, 70707 CLS-89 Eradicator Mech, 70708 Hive Crawler, 70709 Galactic Titan, with polybags 30230 Mini Mech, and 30231 Space Insectoid. That's about 4000 pieces of fun right there. All of those sets together would cost $479.38 at retail before tax. How much is Bricklink's average sold price for the entire series? $320. You're losing a full third of your initial investment if you bought these at retail and sold them for the average price.

Are these the only themes that have lost money? By no means. Early predictions are putting the future of Chima in the toilet. I'll let those of you inclined to do so research other past themes to see which ones should cause speculators to run for the hills.

For those people who jumped in head first, thinking that investing in LEGO would be like printing money, this should serve as a sobering wake-up call. If you had bought any of these themes at retail, you'd have saved yourself time by handing $5 bills to random people on the street, or better yet, save the money by burying it in a coffee can in your backyard.

With every success story and humble brag about the times when someone guessed right, there's someone cursing the hundreds or thousands of dollars tied up in inventory, eating storage space. What can you do with all those Ostrich Races or Crater Creepers? I hear Toys for Tots accepts any toy that is unopened and unwrapped. You could break them down for parts, but that's a whole different headache.

The average values that I list are not a complete indication of the value of these sets. Looking at Bricklink, many have sold or are currently available for notably less than the average. On the other hand, some bought these sets at significantly below average pricing. Prince of Persia has 2 unique animals (ostrich and camel) that have some demand on the parts market. Some people are making money on these sets. Smart money avoided these themes from the beginning, most even avoided them on clearance. Some, however, are wondering if it's possible to use these sets to make storage for their moneymaking investment. If you haven't thought about it, even if you sold at the listed average price, the amount of your return is at least 7% lower due to fees.

If you're buying LEGO for investment and you don't know or don't care about the themes that you are buying, chances are that you're throwing money away.

Good news for some, bad news for some and irrelevant news to others! Must be a BigBlueDogBricks post by yours truly, Veegs! "The True North Strong and (Almost?) Free - Loonie Slide to 59!" That phrase plays on the words to our National Anthem O Canada, and is possibly amusing to some? First, a link to the article - although most major Canadian papers had this or a variation on it today: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/macquarie-loonie-forecast-1.3401644

As the article states, the loonie (Canadian $1 dollar coin, for those unaware) is forecasted to continue its slide against the U.S. Greenback, perhaps to an (shudder) all time low. Grim things for some in the Canadian economy, but probably pretty good for Lego investors up north. The forecast also indicates this low rate might be the norm until 2018 although I hesitate to put much stock in a prediction that far off. So, my spin – feel free to disagree or grab pitchforks, or agree heartily and raise a toast to me in the comments.

#1 Cheapest Lego Sets in the World?
I'm no math-magician – I'm an English teacher, damnit, but if these forecasts are correct it will be cheaper to buy some (if not all) sets in Canada, especially a slew of sets that have a small current price gap compared to the US. Fairground Mixer, Slave 1, etc (the list is long). A 20 or 30% discount in Canada might now give Canadian buyers a buy-in on sets that would rival some of the greatest TRUTH Tactics deals I've seen or super-out-of-the-way-major-discount finds in the Daily Deals US/CAN thread (which are mostly US deals). For sellers close to the border, stock runs to Canada might be more common, or bulk buys from Brickpicker to Brickpicker across the border. I know some US 'pickers are already buying exclusives in Canada, but I'd expect that number to grow if the advantage continues to widen making it financially feasible/more enticing for our southern brothers/sisters to come north to buy. Right now Canadians are at a small advantage – another 10 cent drop pushes that advantage noticeably.

#2 Ability to Undercut American Sellers
For me, the U.S. Market sets Lego prices in Canada, and I use them as a baseline when pricing items. I assume a lot (if not almost everyone) does the same. In the last few weeks I've sold a few sets to US buyers after not selling much in the previous entire year. Coincidence? Perhaps. I do know that even with higher shipping costs (on average, based on BP threads and info) from Canada, the slide of the loonie more easily allows me to attract US buyers and opens up a new marketplace for me (and other Canadians) that earlier either couldn't or wouldn't be able to compete with US sellers. I think over the holiday season, over a hundred Sea Cows were sold to Canadians (likely mostly investors, including yours truly!) with many getting them for $175 or $180 CAD, tax in. That is insane! That is about $125 USD according to the currency exchange site I punched these numbers into. If Canadians can continue to get great deals in addition to a favorable exchange rate, US investors might find the marketplace even more crowded than before. I'd say buy in price and set choice becomes even more important in this environment. In addition, for those buying on credit or accruing debt, more potential sellers (Canadians) that are already good at listing, printing labels and being pretty efficient entering the market should breed more caution. The investor with the lowest buy in can undercut others (if necessary) either forcing competitors to take a loss or hold sets longer. I know the Sea Cow is 'hot' right now, but there was likely enough stock sold at rock bottom prices in Canada to effectively undercut most sellers on eBay for quite some time. Of course, there are plenty of other factors, but the Sea Cow seems to me to be an example of how a cheap loonie coupled with good Canadian deals could really affect the reselling marketplace in at least the short term.

#3 Short Golden Age?
Tough to imagine that The Lego Group will keep Canadian prices cheaper or even balanced relative to American prices if the loonie indeed loses value and stays low until 2018, as predicted. Future sets might get a new pricing structure. A worst case scenario would be a new pricing structure on all currently available sets, suddenly decreasing the pricing advantage in place now.

For global users, I don't know if this will impact you much, but it could be a heads up that currency fluctuations should be part of your investing homework (I did mention I'm a teacher) as changes in your region/target markets will happen and you need to be able to adapt and try to make the situation work for you and your bottom line.

Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)

With so many total sets available and #chaos in full effect as predicted by J-Mack, I thought it would be useful for new(er) members to the site and to Lego investing on the whole to take a look at how a short or shorter than expected run can greatly impact the value of a set. Without further adieu...

The Mine 4204 June 1^st, 2012 – Nov. 29^th 2014 CAGR: 0.05%

I loved 4204 The Mine. It had a lot going for it (at least in my eyes) – cool subtheme, unlikely to be remade, and lots of potential buyers seem to like construction vehicles and sets in non-technic sets. I'm sure they like them in Technic, too, but based on sets released, traditional sets seem more popular and sell more. I got a great deal on a whole bunch of them about one and a half years in, and hoped to see it retire around the two year mark. Sadly, either more sets were produced or not enough folks were buying at MSRP because it lingered for about two and a half years. Unfortunately, the brickset.com dates also only indicate the date at which it became unavailable from Shop at Home, but I can assure you that Toys R Us in Canada still had stock into early 2015. I like a varied portfolio, I'm a big believer in the right CITY sets, but the shelf life hurt 4204 in my opinion. Currently Brickpicker lists its US value at essentially MSRP. Granted, it was a CITY set, so if you didn't get it at a good discount you can only blame yourself, but profit potential seems to have been crimped by availability from 2012 into 2015.

City Cargo Terminal 60022 Aug. 1^st, 2013 – Dec. 12^th, 2014 CAGR: 15.97%

In comparison, another large CITY set, 60022 Cargo Terminal, was available from Shop at Home for under eighteen months, total. Massive difference for another subtheme I liked and thought was cool. With a current BP value of around $155 USD, plenty of extra room to visit profit land and frolic in piles of solid returns. With CITY sets, I'm not really looking for a set to hit the stratosphere, but I find they can be steady workhorses that reliably net returns – great for mixing it up. That being said, a couple of other sets I want to focus on had even shorter runs than 60022 and have exceeded likely every investors' expectations. (I call BS if investors claim they knew The Zombies was going to break through $200 USD on launch day or even as it started to become a little hard to find)

Logging Truck 60059 Dec 2013 (Jan 1^st 2014 wide release) to Dec 15^th 2014 CAGR: 67.27%

Cool vehicle from a sometimes overlooked theme. Add approximately one year of availability, stir, and watch the money come in. Enormous ROI%, even at MSRP, but pure gravy for those with the foresight to get some of these at 20% off or more. The size of the set really helps the CAGR percentage, which is great for new investors who are looking for solid short to medium term sets that can really help a small time investor scale up.

Arctic Supply Plane 60064 Aug. 1^st, 2014 to Dec 28^th 2014 CAGR: 43.63%

Crazy short run from a theme most probably though had at least another twelve if not eighteen months. Just now the last Arctic sets have moved to Sold Out at Shop at Home, so quite a big difference. Even though the plane looks a lot like other planes (at least to me) in other City subthemes – like the plane in the Deep Sea subtheme (another Toys R Us exclusive, at least in Canada), it certainly hasn't caused collectors to NOT want to buy this set, even while its brothers and sisters were widely available. With great scarcity seems to come nice gains, even if the set doesn't seem all that amazing.

Ant-Man Final Battle Jun 1^st, 2015 – Oct 15^th, 2015 CAGR: 25.66%

Seems to be in a nice initial growth phase. Even with some chatter about this set and investors jumping on the bandwagon, the lack of new supply will likely only keep prices in relative check for a short time. Great minifigs and a very short run, plus upcoming screen time in new movies means a lot of potential. Despite knock off Superhero minifigs being an issue – and many superhero set builds being underwhelming – there is still money to be made on the right sets. Also spoiler alert the 2016 summer Superhero sets look a lot more desirable overall, so perhaps this is a good time to try out this theme (or revisit it, if you've been avoiding it in the post 6866 world). Plus, this is a crazy short shelf life for a set, even if it had issues at launch.

Snowplough & Excavator and Others...

The whole Demolition line seemed available on sale over the holidays, at least around me, but the Excavator seems to be the exception. Brickset lists it being available from Dec. 2^nd, 2014, but general release (I believe) was Jan. 1^st, 2015. A retail life under a year and from a cool subtheme, I think this might surprise in the next six to twelve months. Toys R Us Canada has them on sale right now, 33% off (Jan 29, 2016) and I tend to think this could be an easy double at this reduction with pending official retirement. The Snowplough is even cooler (at least in my opinion) and I think will be a huge draw next winter in places that get snow. Just around a year of availability and well-reviewed on other Lego sites all point to a nice potential profit in the next twelve months and beyond until it hits a plateau

There are plenty of other sets from other lines, but I have to leave some work for readers to do themselves. I tried to highlight a few I find interesting, but rest assured this isn't a complete list and there are other short-run gems out there to be found. Right now, Hydra Fortresses, Pirates sets and Raptor Escapes are being sought out at retailers. The beauty of the short run sets (or themes...think Castle before and Pirates now...Scooby Doo is my prediction for 2016) is that often online stock dries up quickly and getting more than one or two requires some leg work, stock checking and dragging the kids (or self) to physical stores to mop up the remnants. For me, it is one of the most enjoyable parts of this hobby/business, although I am a self diagnosed masochist who likes the awfulness that retail environments sometimes foster.

Final Thoughts

Older investors are probably familiar with a lot of these sets, and earlier ones; the lore of the Zombies and Wolverine's Chopper Showdown are the stuff of investing legend, whispered about whenever two or more investors gather. Keeping a watchful eye on the forums here on Brickpicker as well as Shop at Home should give you enough lead time to go on a buying spree when you see a short run hit sold out. Currently, there are so many lines/themes and waves out there that short run sets seem to be happening with more regularity – or I'm just noticing it more – but they present opportunities that a savvy investor can jump on. If you live in a regional area with a lot of competition (from “normals” buying sets from their kids or, worse, rival Pickers) the chances of short run sets surviving long after moving to 'sold out' are slim, so stay sharp out there!

Veegs

A happy belated New Year to all my readers, all nine of you. May this coming year bring you discounted exclusives, 80% clearance finds in out of the way stores on long retired merchandise and superb buyer feedback in 2016. I'd also like to quickly take a sentence to remind readers that the Mack's, a.k.a. The Founders, a.k.a. The Collectors, a.k.a. The Guys Who Made Me Take the Blue Pill, are still raising money for St. Paul's and it would be a darn shame not to support such a great cause. I could cite a boatload of research that supports the notion that giving money away makes the giver undeniably happier, or could chastise those that read content (including this rubbish) but don't want to give back in any way, but I'd rather give a polite reminder that time is running out to buy tickets and the sets up for grabs could easily be the centerpiece of a budding collection. At the minimum, there should be lots of great stockroom photo sharing when these sets find new homes, and hopefully some education for little Macks.

Back to business. What is BigBlueDogBricks targeting for 2016 in terms of exclusives? I'm sure everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what Ol' Blue is favoring, but I'll give a little background in case you are new to my flow. This will be my fourth year dabbling in Brickvesting (yeah, I'm starting to feel a little bro-ish using that term...might have to coin something new) and I am now confident classifying myself as a solid middle tier investor. I see lots of new members posting in various forums and can only assume you might want to hear a little advice on what kind of buying someone who was once like you is preparing to do.

Side anecdote: Just before Christmas I was contacted by a fellow in the Greater Toronto Area who wanted to buy a couple of large sets. We chatted back and forth and he correctly assumed that because I had so many listings I was doing this as more than a casual hobby (like someone 'accidentally' has hundreds of Lego sets for sale at the same time?) and he asked a few questions about Lego investing and such. Yeah, not much of an anecdote yet...Anyway, he tells me that along with his brother they are getting into Lego and think investing is cool. They opt not to buy any of my sets (although they were underpriced from ebay sales around 20-25%, and I sold a couple of the sets they were interested in within a week for more than what they thought was too steep) but he did end with an interesting question – so you're buying tons of Pet Shops and Tower Bridges now, right? I chuckled, because I think people often get drawn to Brickpicker and think the big shiny sets are the easiest way to get started. I am a prophet preaching Anything But Modulars now, though, as I believe there are quite a few better strategies to be successful that are faster and provide a greater overall return than simply picking the current oldest modular and throwing money at it. Worst. Strategy. Ever.

So, if you are relatively new or just don't have a lot of capital to invest what should you buy from the exclusives? Well, I've ordered my 2016 picks chosen from all the sets under the 'Hard to Find' label on Shop at Home (Canada), along with a quick rundown of why it deserves that ranking. I'll be back soon to talk about large (but not exclusive) sets that are on my buy list, and finish up with a smaller sets hit list. Fun!

BigBlueDogToys Anything But Modulars Buy List Order, Winter 2016, Exclusives

Ewok Village 10236

Current Amazon.com sales rank: 149 in building sets

I'm sure plenty of other investors have this at or near the top of their list. It is the oldest Star Wars large (not officially a UCS) set and, in case you don't know, Star Wars is totally a thing with people. They by and large seem to love it, if box office results indicate anything. It was listed as 'check back in February' for a few months (but was always available to buy at other retailers, at least in Canada) and is now listed as temporarily out of stock. Rumors have maybe three or four large Star Wars sets in the pipeline, so something seemingly has to give. I'm not advocating going crazy for a small to mid-sized investor (I have four from a flash sale from Walmart Canada) but it will probably be the first set I buy during the next double VIP + promo event. If you want to read a lot of Ewok love (or conversely a lot of Ewok hate) the dedicated thread is long and I can summarize: opinion seems divided, not much in the middle. I'm a lover, not a fighter, so these furballs are alright with me. Despite a good sales rank, it hasn't been around nearly as long as the modulars on my dishonorable mentions list so I'll let its current relative popularity slide.

The S.H.I.E.L.D. Helicarrier 76042

Current Amazon.com sales rank: 344 in Building Sets

A couple of whispers from far off places (Singapore, if you don't care to read the retiring soon thread religiously) have this retiring sooner rather than later. Limit is 1 from Shop at Home. It is massive. Ewoks are running circles around it according to sales rank. So why buy? Unlikely to ever be remade, I'd say, or at least not anytime soon. Difficult for small and medium-sized investors to hoard a set this large and expensive. Marvel fatigue might be setting in a bit (perhaps more of a Superheroes malaise, really) although I think the core fan base will still buy. Hasn't been around that long, but I'd still rather use double VIP to get a couple in the spring and then reevaluate.

The Fairground Mixer 10244

Current Amazon.com sales rank: 840 in Building Sets

Overall the worst sales rank of the sets I've chosen to focus on today, which makes me happy. Almost swapped this with the Helicarrier...consider it a toss up for me. A poor seller in a crowded Lego release schedule seems very likely to get the axe sooner rather than later. I have a couple now but would actually be quite happy to aim for double digits here. I think it is a unique kind of set and is priced well for Canada! I was happy to grab Maersk EEEs when they were sitting with the retiring soon label for months and others were buying (presumably) modulars. I've sold some of those EEEs while those that invested in other large sets are potentially still sitting on them, and I've got cash profits to put into another hidden gem. It will be interesting to see if a third carnival type set gets released this summer, or if the Friends rollercoaster (heavily rumored) and other fairground sets are released in its stead. This summer the set will turn two, it isn't a great seller at the moment and doesn't get a ton of chatter on Brickpicker. I am going to throw a little money down on this one. Or a lot.

The Simpsons House 71006

Current Amazon.com sales rank: 229 in Building Sets

I loved this set a couple months ago, and still love it now. Solid seller, not as flashy in sales numbers as a few other very large sets. Read more here: 

Sandcrawler 75059

Current Amazon.com sales rank: 285

Second oldest Star Wars UCS-type set after Ewok Village. Reasoning is largely the same as Ewok Village, as I think this won't make it to 2017, comes from a hugely popular line and looks ballin'. I nod to EV first as I am afraid the Ewoks might not make it until Q4 (a.k.a. Retirement season) but I'm willing to gamble the Sandcrawler will. Also use some Helicarrier reasoning here: massive set, big price tag and big box keeps a lot of smaller and even mid-sized investors from going too deep on it (at least most of them).

There you have it – this is a shopping list of what I'd like to nab during the spring double VIP. I'm not going to panic and grab them earlier as I am reasonably confident the sets on this list will not suddenly become unavailable permanently in February, and every percent discount or promo makes me more competitive in a crowded marketplace. I'm not going to order more than one or two of each, and not in quick succession or anything crazy that would merit a ban hammer, but will spread them over a week or two as I've done every promo period in the last couple years.

Honorable Mentions

Volkswagen T1 – Sales rank 385. Sales number indicates perhaps (finally) a little buyer fatigue? It has been out for seemingly forever and the new box design in 2015 virtually guaranteed (at least to me) that there would still be more time in 2016 to get more (not that I need more). I'll reevaluate in a few months. Those hoping The Lego Group wouldn't want three large car models on the shelves at the same time must be gutted.

Mini Cooper – Sales rank 495. Slower than the T1, so an argument could be made that it might be retired ahead of the T1, which will become the new Death Star a.k.a. Live Star.

Sydney Opera House – Sales rank 412. Tower Bridge is 183. Significant difference? As far as I know, the Opera House doesn't have a new box design, while the Tower Bridge does. I'd wager this goes in 2016 and the Tower Bridge stays. Just a hunch. That being said, I personally don't like the Opera House as much as a few of the others on this list, and I don't have enough money to go 5-10 deep on every set. I can't see myself wanting/getting more than 4-5 of these. It has also been discounted in other markets which has generally been linked to sets that are on the way out. If my sales stay strong this might get some love in the next few months.

Dishonorable Mentions

Pet Shop – Sales rank 89. 89! That is gross. I think modulars look like easy money and lots of folks are drawn in by them, but if it keeps selling this well I'm not convinced it will even retire this fall. If you are starting out, no problem grabbing one or two, but I think it is insane to tie up too much capital here. Plenty of other sets out there that should/could retire sooner and give a cash return faster.

Palace Cinema – Sales rank 145. Also gross! If the Pet Shop didn't retire, then the Cinema HAS TO, right? AMITRITE? Perhaps not. Given sales numbers, why shouldn't the Lego Group have five modulars available at the same time? As long as investors keep stocking them away, I suspect they'll retire slowly.

The difficulty for me is that in a perfect world, I would have piles and piles of each set, especially exclusives but that isn't realistic. I require stock turnover and sales to drive new investment, and my success (or failure) to move stock dictates approximately what I can spend. The spring double VIP event will be a good time to add a few large sets that I hope/expect/pray will retire at some point in 2016. When each set starts doing the in and out of stock dance, I'll probably squeeze some funds together to buy some from another large retailer, but I like to get at least a couple of each targeted set from Shop at Home in the mid to late cycle of its life. If you think I should be buying more Pet Shops, sound off in the comments section!

Veegs (BigBlueDogBricks)