Review from: Fcbarcelona101
MEMBER OWNS SET: YES MEMBER HAS BUILT SET: NO
FIRST IMPRESSION | Score: 8
As all of the Winter Village themed sets, this little bakery has a lot of charm and makes for a great first impression. The detaling for a set of almost 700 pieces is very good, and there are some very interesting features that caught your attention as soon as you take a look at them, like the simulated frozen pond with the hanging lights, the windows with the assortment of baked goods, the oven inside and the minifig trapped in the ice. The building itself may feel a little small, but that is a common thread of all the Winter themed sets, in my opinion.
Besides those things I mentioned above you also get a Christmas selling stand and a cart to transport them with the help of a horse. Again, it is the small details that make this winter set a great one to own.
UNIQUE PARTS | Score: 7
There are some rare parts included in this set, but only a couple that are really exclusive. Even more, those parts that are rare are not so much because of the actual brick design, but rather the somewhat rare colors the are produced in. Let's examine them in more detail:
From this list, other than the exclusive parts, one of the most interesting pieces is the light brick, but it appears that is an element LEGO will be using more often in the future so we will have to wait and see if it becomes more valuable as time passes.
The set comes with 7 minifigs, that even though are exclusive variations of traditional characters are not really that valuable in the secondary market. The lack of a license or recurring characters that people can easily recognize make the minifigs to be seen as a lot more common and therefore not worth it to spend the usual price premium. Having said that, all of the minifgs are really good and fit well with the theme. The most unique one of the set in my opinion is the baker. Other than him, you also get 3 "regular" civilians (2 women and one man), and two more "worker" looking characters that can be placed to tend the pine tree sale stand or to drive and deliver them on the cart.
Despite not having minifigs that are particularly valuable, this is usually the case with this type of set. Their value really depends on the fact that they are only released during the holiday season, therefore spending a lot less time in the shelves than more traditional LEGO themes.
PLAYABILITY/BUILD EXPERIENCE | Score: 8
I have not built this set, but from what I can gather from the instructions it does not seem to be a repetitive build at all and there are several sections that peak my interest and would be interesting to try, most especially the frozen pond section and the first level of the bakery with all the detailing and the oven.
Playability is something that is really abundand with this set. First of all, inside the main building there are several things you can do, from putting some bread in the baking oven while using the light brick, setting up the already baked goods in the window for the potential shoppers to see, and receive payments with the printed cash register brick. Once outside of the main building, there is also the Christmas tree stand where your minifigs can go ahead and select their favorite one, tall or short, to put in their home. This can be delivered by making use of the cart and horse that is also included. Finally, the frozen pond section is a great area where your minifigs can ice skate or just sit around on the bench by its side. There is one minifig that is trapped on the snow, so you can also try and rescue it from that bad situation.
Most of these winter sets are really good to play with, and at the same time they just look really good. The several different features the Bakery provides guarantees you will have a great time when playing with it!
VALUE FOR MONEY | Score: 9
Let's take a look at the value for the money chart:
From what you see on the chart above, all of the Winter Village themed sets seem to be priced at around the same level when considering the PPP ratio. All of these sets are a great value when compared to some of the other themes, mostly because there is no need for LEGO to cover the costs of an expensive license like in Star Wars or LOTR. The only set that seems to be a little higher priced is the Post Office.
The bakery is the smallest set of the whole line so far, and that is probably what accounts for the small difference in price it has with the other two larger sets, the Toy Shop and the Cottage. When considering that you get a large amount of nice minifigs, a somewhat large amount of rare parts (including a light brick) and a great solid set all around that has a lot of great play features and looks extremely good on display, I would say that this is one of the best values you can currently find out there at retail.
There is the fact, however, that this set has just been marked as a retired product not very long ago on the LEGO online site. Even more, since the month of december it has never come down from its triple digit price, and for most of the beginning of the year it was not even expected to be retired as it was announced. This may make the price of the set a little more resistant over the summer months since it is not expected to come back anymore, and make it continue its uptrend. I would say that, unless you get really lucky, you will not be able to find this set close to retail anymore.
THEME POPULARITY | Score: 9
The winter theme has proven to be one of the most popular ones being produced by LEGO since it has been available. It may be as a result of its limited availability, or the uniqueness and opportunity it gives to present a winter village in its entirety during the holiday season (and made of LEGOs instead of the traditional small scale houses you can buy in stores). Whatever the reason may be, the overall theme CAGR according to Brickpicker data is somewhere around a whopping 38 %, making it the third most "profitable" theme out there after Ninjago and Monster Fighters. Something worth keeping in mind is however, that the Seasonal theme in Brickpicker's data section includes not only the Winter Village sets, but also some of the smaller sets that are produced for holidays like Halloween or St Valentines. Having said that, if you only take the average of CAGRs from the four large sets released under the Winter Village sub-theme, you will see that the figure is also very significant at around 19 %.
The popularity of the theme peaks around the months of november, december and some january, no surprise there, and it is then that you will see the largest increase in price and activity. For example, the Winter Village Bakery was selling an average of 11 sets from April 2012 to October 2012 at an average price of $ 57, while on November, December 2012 and January 2013 those numbers were significantly higher at 88 copies for an average price of $ 81 (Price peaked in january at around $102). So, what can we tell about this theme then?, I would say that it is a very popular one and investors should be encouraged to get their Winter themed sets when discounted either before the holidays or just after while they are still available, so then those can be held until the next Christmas season and make a signifcant profit even on the same year they are bought.
As the Toy Shop has proven to us, it seems that the theme is not only good as a short term performer, but also a great one for holding long term.
EXCLUSIVITY | Score: 9
All of these sets are LEGO exclusives and as such they are only available on LEGO branded stores and S@H, plus the online stores of some other retailers, making it somewhat more difficult to find. The fact that makes these sets to be more exclusive is that LEGO only has them available during the months around the holiday season, so by the time January or February comes, they are not available any more direclty from them. When taking this into account, the sets are on the shelves for well less time than other themes.
PACKAGING | Score: 8
The box of this set is standard size for the amount of pieces included. The design of the boxes on this theme does make it a lot easier for them to stand out from the other different LEGO themes. The color is mostly blue all around with a lot of winter scenery, something that is pretty easy to spot even from a significant distance. There is also a small circle on the down right corner that highlights the inclusion of a light brick on the set.
GROWTH POTENTIAL | Score: 9
Let's examine how the comparable sets have been doing and make a prediction about the future performance of the Bakery: (Data from Brickpicker)
*HPR: Holding Period Return, assuming the set was purchased at retail on the day of released and sold today.
Of all the sets included above, the only one that has not been retired at this point is the Winter Cottage, so we can take that one out of consideration. Also, the Winter Post Office's retirement was just announced a couple of months ago as well, so we will really focus more on the one that has been retired for a longer time, the 10199 Toy Shop.
From the time the Toy Shop was retired at some point during the end of 2011, the set has produced an outstanding CAGR of almost 30% and a HPR or close to $ 180!, those are some really good numbers and it has only been a little more than a year since it went out of production. The similarities between 10199 and the Bakery are pretty interesting, since both shared close to the same MSRP as well as a very close Price Per Piece ratio. Not only that, but being that both are produced under the same line, there is really no need to go to other comparable themes in order to make a more accurate prediction, since the future performance can be very safely be assumed to be close to the already retired sets on a same theme.
Unlike some of the licensed themes, the Bakery's minifigs will probably not be carrying this set's value into the stratosphere, since they are mostly pretty common or at least not as interesting as, say, Aragorn or Bobba Fett. However, the great looking and detailed set, the pieces themselves and the fact that availability is pretty limited to a couple of months during a two year period, will allow the Bakery to more than likely follow the path of the Toy Shop in the future, maybe to a lesser extent if we assume that not that many investors had predicted the potential of the winter theme when 10199 was out, but then catched on and started purchasing the rest of them. Still, I believe this set will be really succesful and those that want to complete their Winter Village will for sure need to acquire this one in the secondary market.
Value Prediction: the set has gone up a lot already, only a few months after the holidays and a few weeks since the retirement "announcement", but it is my expectation that the CAGR will probably stay at the same level it is now by the time it has been retired for two years, just like the Toy Shop. This would mean a CAGR of around 25% by the time Jan. 2015 is here. After maybe 2 or 3 years, the CAGR will stabilize and probably be around 20% by the time the set has been retired for five years. It will then mature and likely to stay close to that value or just grow very slowly from that point.
Note: This projections are not meant to be used as a way to determine the expected price on individual years, but rather to see trends and the expected value at the end of each period. For example, in 2017 you can expect the price to be close to $ 235, while if you use the two period chart you can determine also the expected price in 2014 to around $ 170.
DISPLAY QUALITY | Score: 8
There is great potential to display this bakery set along with the other winter themed models to make a great looking winter town scene during the holidays, or even during the rest of the year if you'd like that. The sets are all done to the same scale and are very compatible between them. For a set this size, I feel that it has a lot of detail all around that make it a very good display piece. The "snow" covering in the buildings and the frozen pond make it easier to set the scene on a winter weather location, that is the main focus of the theme of course, and as long as LEGO keeps producing more content to place along the already existing ones, the look and feel of every individual set will keep getting better and better as the town keeps growing.
CONCLUSION & FINAL ANALYSIS | Score: 9
Great looking set with great investment potential, the Bakery is a sure winner that makes complete every Winter themed collection. If you are able to find this set for less than $ 90, I would definitely jump in and hold it a few years.
Review from: adewar
MEMBER OWNS SET: YES MEMBER HAS BUILT SET: YES
FIRST IMPRESSION | Score: 9
This delightful, charming holiday set is full of nice touches, featuring great play and display attributes. This is the second set in the LEGO Winter Village subtheme and it continues the great elements introduced by the intial launch set, the Toy Shop. I love the great variety of minifigures, the frozen pond surrounded by snow, and the detailed store frontage complete with light brick. This set also includes a 'half minifigure' buried headfirst in a snow hill. Details like that really show you the charm of this series.
UNIQUE PARTS | Score: 9
This set contains a lot of great elements from the classic LEGO trees to the many white roof slope pieces and all the Bakery accesssories. Their are seven great minifigures in this set that are all exclusive to this set as well. The minifigs comprise a variety of 'city' -esque characters including:
- 2 kids in winter clothes
- Woman in red Christmas dress
- Woman in scarf
The figures are great, but they aren't "named" characters like you will find in the Star Wars series for example, so I wouldn't get too excited about their exclusive nature. However I would get excited about 7.5 great minifigures in a 54.99 set.
The bakery features a lot of nice elements such as pastries, a nice curved door, windows, arches, and a light brick "firing" the oven. I love the frozen pond made up of large transparent blue plates. You also get a horse and and owl, among other things. Altogether there is a great deal of variety and uniquesness to this 687 piece set.
PLAYABILITY/BUILD EXPERIENCE | Score: 9
This winter scene has a lot of great play elements. A Christmas tree logging truck, a pond for ice skating, and a well realized bakery with light brick. Children will be delighted to explore all of the great play feautures of this set.
VALUE FOR MONEY | Score: 9
At the retail price of 54.99 the Bakery was a great deal. The set is comprised of 687 with 7 minifigures. That's only 8 cents per peice well below the 10 cent per piece benchmark. This attractively priced set delivered a lot in those 687 pieces. It's amazing that LEGO was able to get a pond, a bakery, truck, and 7 minifigures from that piece count. Each element is very well trimmed and polished as well. Nothing is just thown together or left unfinished. Overall this was a terrific value at retail.
Unfortunately for those that missed out on this set (last available during the 2012 holiday season), the value of a new set at current levels is not so great. The current valuation of this set as of this writing is over $100. At that price, the value is questionable.
THEME POPULARITY | Score: 10
The Winter Village, a subtheme of TLG's seasonal theme, has been very popular. It was first introduced in 2009 with the launch of the Toy Shop (10199) which sold very well and it too is also retired. Each year the line grows by one and each year it is met with eager anticipation among fans. This is a wonderful theme that should stay hot for many cold seasons to come.
EXCLUSIVITY | Score: 10
This set, as with all of the Winter Village sets, was only sold through LEGO stores and LEGO.com. Furthermore, being seasonal, it was only available October through December (unless it sold out prior). It is has now been retired after appearring for three seasons, so it was quite exclusive prior to EOL and is even more so now.
PACKAGING | Score: 8
The Bakery comes in a nice sturdy large box that displays the great display features of the set and makes mention of the light brick. Surprisingly though, the actual name of the set is not displayed! The set number 10216 is displayed but not the name. I supposes the picture on the front makes it evident enough that it is a bakery, but it's strange to not have the name of the set on the box. Anyhow, it is big and sturdy and will hold up well. I like it.
GROWTH POTENTIAL | Score: 8
This now retired set is exploding in the seconday market, gaining 80%+ in just the last 6 months, as of this writing. It should have more room to run and may perhaps triple in value from its original MSRP. If you don't already own them though, I would be hesitant to buy them at this level. That may just be me in that I try not to cry over the sets I missed out on and have a hard time paying over retail for any set even if I think it will climb further. Below is an overview of how this subtheme has performed.
As of 5/5/2013
As one can see the Bakery boasts a very nice CAGR of almost 25% and has almost doubled its retail price since going EOL. All of these Winter Village sets look like winners, but I would look to the non-EOL sets for growth instead of the already retired sets that have already experienced great growth.
DISPLAY QUALITY | Score: 9
This a beautiful, charming scene that makes for a wonderful display. All of these Winter Village sets are intended to go well together much in the same way that the modular buildings go so well together (even though the WV sets don't physically connect to one another like the modulars). The bakery is very nicely detailed and nicely realized even if it is only really a facade and not a four-sided building. I really like the display window with arch that showcases the baker's treats and the light brick for the oven. The pond with ice skaters really makes for a nice focal point in a large winter scene. Overall - it is an outstanding holiday display piece.
CONCLUSION & FINAL ANALYSIS | Score: 9
This set has done very well for investors, doubling in value after just a short while into its retirement. When available at at retail for 54.99, this set was a real bargain. At over $100, this set should still has room to grow, but I wouldn’t be inclined to invest in it now. However, it is an awesome set that maintains the same great qualities that made its predecessor, the Toy Shop, so popular. I love the series and this set. While it is not my absolute favorite set in the series. it is still outstanding. The frozen pond with Christmas lights strung overtop add to the appeal and help differentiate it from the other sets in this line.
Review from: spener90
I built this set last Christmas and was pleasantly surprised by how impressive it is. It doesn't stand out the way that some of the modulars or Diagon Alley do, but for it's price it definitely gives you an impressive building. I'm not going to go into price details as this set is rumored to be completely retired and will not return next holiday, so investors likely either have it, or will pass because the price is set to go up. In the set are the bakery, an outdoor ice rink, a christmas tree stand, and a carriage. It includes 7 and a half minifigures, but none of which are a big standout in my opinion. Easily the most impressive part of the set is the bakery itself. It uses some more advanced building techniques, and the style of the roof is extremely creative and something I personally had never thought to use in the past. The bakery has a fire place along with a tiled floor. Overall, this is a very impressive set. I would have given it a 10 overall, but I reserve 10's for the very best; The Diagon Alley's, or Green Grocer's of the Lego world. This is a high quality set, and is great for display purposes, making it a must have for those who collect and display legos.
Review from: BuckeyeFanDan
The Winter Village Bakery is a good addition to the Winter Village series. At an MSRP of $54.99, it has a good piece count (687) and good number of minifigures (7 1/2, which includes the unusual feature of the bottom half of a person sticking out of a snowbank). I love that this set has a lighted brick inside the bakery. Some of my other favorite elements of this set are the string of lights above the ice rink, the blue translucent base of the ice rink, the trees, and the light post with the pretzel sign on it.
As with many LEGO sets, little details make a big difference. Even though this is a bakery, you also get a horse and wagon, a Christmas tree sales booth and an ice rink. Details like these really enhance the overall scene, especially if you are building an entire winter village.
As evidenced by the recently EOL'd Winter Village Toy Shop, the entire Winter Village series should prove to generate positive growth in the secondary market. If this set follows the same schedule as the Toy Shop, then it is probably EOL already since it has now been available for two years. This is such a nice series overall that this set lends itself well to buying one to build and buying one (or more) for investment purposes.